Columbia, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

336
FXUS62 KCAE 200604
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
204 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The high heat and humidity continues into Monday, with Heat
Advisory conditions possible Monday. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible in the north this afternoon and evening,
followed by increased convective coverage Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures return to normal for mid-week followed by another
wave of heat to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Hot again today with heat index values reaching the triple
  digits.
- Isolated storm or two possible in the northern portions of the
  forecast area.

Upper ridging remains the main driver of weather conditions
today as it gradually retrogrades to the west. Despite the shift
westward, the 500 mb heights remain abnormally high, near the
NAEFS climatological max for this time of year. This should lead
to another day of above normal temperatures. Moisture content is
looking to be near what it was yesterday, keeping dewpoints
tampered somewhat due to a shortwave rotating around the main
ridging. Thus, heat index values are likely to reach the triple
digits again, but remain below Heat Advisory criteria, so will
refrain from issuing one at this time. That said, a few
locations could see heat index values briefly reach criteria
(108F). With the temperatures reaching the upper 90s and the
rotating shortwave, an isolated storm or two is possible in the
northern portions of the forecast area. Much like Saturday, not
expecting much in the way of coverage. Tonight is likely to be a
repeat of the past few nights as well, with lows running above
average once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Hot and humid with near Heat Advisory criteria on Monday.
- Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms both days
  with isolated severe weather possible

Hot and humid conditions expected to continue on Monday although the
chances of diurnal convection should be better as the upper ridge
axis shifts further to the west over the western Gulf Coast states.
The 500mb flow will become more northwesterly which will provide a
downsloping flow component aiding in well above normal high
temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. This will lead
to borderline Heat Advisory criteria with heat indices over 105
degrees in most locations. There is some uncertainty regarding the
Heat Advisory potential which will depend on when initiation and how
widespread convection is so it is not a guarantee those values will
be approached. SPC has outlooked the area in a marginal (1/5)
risk of severe weather with damaging wind gusts as the primary
threat and this is supported by the CSU severe probabilities.

Tuesday brings a bit of relief with some cooler temperatures
expected as the upper ridge axis repositions into the mid MS Valley
region allowing an upper trough to dig into the Mid-Atlantic and
push a weak frontal boundary into the region from the north.
Expecting considerably more cloud cover on Tuesday and the highest
chances of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area.
Temperatures expected to range from the upper 80s northern Midlands
to mid 90s in the CSRA due to the frontal boundary. The severe
threat appears to be a bit less but cannot be ruled out and an
increased flash flood risk is possible given above average PWATs
over 2 inches and the potential for training or back building
storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Slightly cooler below normal temperatures mid week with lower
  heat indices
- Upper ridge builds again by the weekend with warming temperatures

The frontal boundary that pushes into the region on Tuesday is
likely to stall near the forecast area and remaining nearby
providing a focus for higher chances of rain across the eastern
Midlands and CSRA mid week before the boundary becomes diffuse later
in the week and into the weekend as ensemble guidance shows the
upper ridge expanding and building back over the forecast area.
Continued near to slightly below normal temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday with a gradient in pops from lower northwest to higher
southeast, then temperatures begin to warm again by Friday into the
weekend with lowering pops due to the subsidence from the upper
ridging.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR Conditions Likely the Next 24 Hours.

Mainly clear skies across the forecast area for the time being,
but expect some mid level cloudiness to move overhead through
the early morning hours, limiting any fog or stratus. Typical
cumulus field is expected to develop in the afternoon again.
There is a slight chance of storms, with highest chances
occurring north, so CAE/CUB/OGB could see a stray storm.
Confidence is not very high though, but will keep the PROB30 at
this terminals for now. Light and variable winds overnight
become westerly around 10 kts, gusting up to 18 kts after about
14z or 15z at all terminals before diminishing after 00z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Seasonal chances of patchy early
morning fog/stratus through the extended. Rain chances increase
early for the first half of the week ahead of an approaching
surface boundary.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$