Carolina Forest, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

784
FXUS62 KILM 252330
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
730 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
00Z Aviation discussion added.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered storms move across tonight through Sunday, mainly
across northeast SC.

2) Brief warming trend early this week, with Tuesday the
hottest day of the week.

3) Storms possible late Tuesday into Tuesday night, with chance
of strong to severe storms across northern areas of CWA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered storms move across tonight through
Sunday, mainly across northeast SC.

Heavy rain earlier today has moved offshore. While spotty
showers will be possible through this evening, the flood threat
has lessened considerably and therefore the Flood Watch has been
cancelled. The persistent stationary front from the last couple
of days will finally move offshore tonight. PVA aloft over the
Carolinas late tonight into Sunday will spark additional showers
and thunderstorms, mainly across northeast SC where 2+ PWAT
moisture lingers with CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, while mid-upper
levels dry out a bit for NC. No widespread flooding concerns for
Sunday - however, if any pockets of heavy rain move over areas
that received decent rain over the last couple of days isolated
flooding may develop.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Brief warming trend early this week, with
Tuesday the hottest day of the week.

Predominantly dry and mostly sunny during the day Monday and
Tuesday, along with increasing 850mb temps, will push temps back
to near normal Monday followed by above normal Tuesday.
Forecasted heat indices are in the triple digits both
afternoons, with moderate to major Heat Risk forecasted for
Tuesday. May see widely scattered storms Monday afternoon,
particularly along active sea breeze, but slight inversion aloft
may limit potential.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Storms possible late Tuesday into Tuesday
night, with chance of strong to severe storms across northern
areas of CWA.

The next system is progged to impact our area late Tuesday
through early Wednesday, and a low pressure system moves across
the Mid- Atlantic and a cold front approaches the Southeast. Low
level wind field strengthens late Tuesday, particularly for
northern parts of CWA. While majority of forcing is currently
forecasted to remain north of us, there is a chance of scattered
storms for our area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. SPC`s 15%
severe weather outlook for Tues/Tues night clips our northern
counties - too early for any specifics but worth keeping an eye
on.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers have ended for the most part across the area but the
moisture laden/tropical airmass remains for the most part.
Current mostly MVFR conditions will drop into IFR ceilings
around midnight or so with the possibility of some fog
restrictions as well. The magnitude/depth of the moisture will
take some time to mix out later Sunday morning.

Extended Forecast...Some FG restrictions are possible late
Sunday night into Monday morning. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail with relatively brief flight restrictions from diurnal
convection Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...Stationary front moves offshore tonight,
slowly moving away from the coast Sunday/Sunday night. This will
keep winds rather variable and generally under 10 kts through
Monday, with brief uptick to 10-15 kts NW winds for 20-60nm
waters tonight. The exception will be within scattered storms
that may impact coastal waters early tonight and again off NE SC
coast during the day tomorrow. Winds turn from SE Monday to SW
Tuesday, through remaining relatively light. Seas around 2-3 ft
out to 60nm through early Tuesday, primarily due to E swell with
weak wind chop mixed in.

Winds and seas increase during the day Tuesday as a front
approaches from the northwest and low level winds strengthen
ahead of a trough. SW winds peak around 20 kts Tuesday night,
with gusts around 25 kts out to 20 nm and 30 kts gusts out to 60
nm. In response, seas increase to 4-5 ft with the building
southerly wind wave, also peaking Tuesday night. Scattered
storms will move offshore late Tuesday and Tuesday night,
particularly off the Cape Fear coast. Southwest winds and seas
slowly improve during the day Wednesday before the front moves
offshore later in the day/Wed night, followed by benign marine
conditions.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...VAO
DISCUSSION...VAO
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...VAO