Carolina Forest, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

655
FXUS62 KILM 221339
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
939 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong mid and upper ridge will build in over the eastern
United States through the upcoming week with a significant
warming trend. Hot afternoon temperatures combined with high
humidity will create dangerous heat through much of the upcoming
week. Do not expect much in the way of relief from showers or
thunderstorms during the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes needed with morning forecast update. Fog has
dissipated and lingering low stratus will continue to mix out.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Patchy dense fog possible early this morning
*Temps slightly above normal through tonight
*Max heat indices near 100 degrees away from the coast today

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: High pressure to prevail bringing mainly dry and warm
conditions. Early morning fog/low clouds will dissipate quickly
with generally dry and warm conditions through the rest of the
day. Only about a 10% chance or less of a shower/storm this
afternoon along the sea breeze so not even mentionable in the
forecast. More low clouds and maybe a bit of fog will be
possible again tonight. Temps are expected to be above normal
through tonight, with highs today generally ranging from the mid
to upper 80s at the coast to lower to mid 90s inland, with lows
tonight mainly in the lower 70s inland and mid to upper 70s
along the coast. The combination of temps/humidity will yield
heat indices peaking near 100 degrees today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Strong ridging aloft will be the main player leading to an
extended period of hot weather. Highs will range into the mid
to upper 90s inland Monday, and upper 90s inland - to possibly
100 for northwestern portions of the forecast area on Tuesday.
NBM dewpoints will likely be on the high side, and have nudged
them lower each afternoon/early evening. This still yields heat
indices from 100 to 105 most areas (highest northern zones)
during Monday, and 104-108 most areas during Tuesday. Moisture
is limited during this time and a cap will be in place, but
can`t entirely rule out an isolated storm. The 00Z GFS appears
to be suffering from convective feedback Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The heat will continue as the H5 high dominates the weather
pattern through the end of the week. The mid/upper high may
begin to shift off the coast during Saturday allowing for
diurnally driven convection to come back into the picture. Would
expect the sea breeze to be a little more active along with an
inland trough in this setup. In the meantime, highs in the 90s
along with the humidity will yield heat indices of 103-108
through much of the latter half of the week. Lows will be well
above normal each night.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through the 12Z TAF
cycle as high pressure prevails. Mainly MVFR to IFR conditions
possible until 13Z due to low clouds/fog, especially inland at
KLBT/KFLO. VFR to then prevail, although there is a low risk for
additional restrictions from mainly low clouds after about 03Z
tonight, initially near the coast. The slightly higher low-
level winds should prevent much fog tonight.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR through mid week as strong
high pressure aloft puts a lid on most convective development.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High confidence. Offshore high pressure will
prevail keeping mostly light southerly winds in place, enhanced
a bit with the sea breeze this afternoon/evening. Seas will
stay 2 ft or less, mainly SE swells. Also, conditions will be
more favorable than normal for waterspouts through mid morning.

Monday through Friday...Weak high pressure across the area
Monday into Wednesday will result in light winds, peaking around
10 knots each afternoon/early evening with the sea breeze
pushing inland. High pressure setting up far offshore Thursday
into Friday will lead to an increase in SWly flow and bump up in
seas. For the most part expect seas to be around 2 ft through
Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will trend upwards as we approach the new moon on
Wednesday June 25th. Coastal flooding will be possible during
evening high tides along the lower Cape Fear River in the
vicinity of downtown Wilmington and southward through at least
mid week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/SRP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJB