Hope Valley, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

692
FXUS61 KBOX 041109
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
609 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly sunny and dry but with gusty northwest winds today.
Winds then gradually slacken tonight, setting the stage for a
rather chilly night. Increasing cloudiness associated with a
strong Alberta Clipper low moves in for Wednesday. Its cold
frontal passage Wednesday evening may bring showers as it moves
offshore, with a period of strong gusty winds for Wednesday
night into Thursday. Brief ridging Thursday is then followed by
another frontal system Friday. Improving conditions arrive for
the weekend before yet another frontal wave moves through on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
315 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Mostly sunny, but rather gusty through sundown. Minor wind damage
  possible from NW gusts 40-50 mph but impacts should be limited.

* Highs in the 50s, though gusty conditions make it feel quite a
  bit cooler.

Details:

Cold front which brought a period of gusty convective showers (gusts
35-50 mph) and thunderstorms during the pre-midnight hours has now
moved offshore. In its wake has been increased lower-level cold and
dry advection. Sfc ridging was building in from a broad sfc high
over the mid-MS Valley. WNW winds have at least briefly decreaed to
around 25-30 mph in gusts, with current temps in the mid to upper
40s in most areas. While WNW wind gusts are currently in a
relative minimum, a deepening boundary layer due to the combo of
full sunshine and the cold advection once the sun comes out
should allow for a second surge in WNW gusts today. Mostly sunny
conditions today with some intervals of clouds in western New
England, but it will turn quite gusty.

Per collab with NWS Albany, we ended up expanding the wind
advisory issued yesterday to include all of Southern New
England. Looking at BUFKIT point momentum transfer progs, we
should mix to at least 850 mb, although the gusts at the top of
the mixed layer are around 45-50 kt, which tend to decrease as
we move into the afternoon. Thinking WNW gusts today clock in
more commonly around 40-45 mph in most areas, with isolated
gusts to 50 mph capable of minor wind-related damage, peaking
during the morning to early afternoon. Gusts then stand to
decrease later today as the speeds at top of the mixed layer
decrease and the earlier sundown around 430 PM steadily reduces
the mixing depth. Since the gusts may end up being generally
similar in most areas, felt it just made more sense from a
messaging standpoint to include all of Southern New England,
though pending trends it certainly could be cancelled before its
scheduled expiration.

Aside from it being a pretty gusty day, sun will offset the
cold air advection with seasonable highs in the 50s, but will
feel quite a bit cooler given the winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
315 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Clear and chilly tonight with gradually decreasing winds.

* Mostly sunny to start Wed, but with increasing clouds and
  developing SW breezes. Highs in the 50s, perhaps near 60 south
  coast.

Details:

Tonight:

High pressure over the mid-MS Valley shifts southward into the
Carolinas tonight as sfc ridge associated with it continues to build
into Southern New England. Mostly clear skies should result and our
airmass begins to modify as the 925-850 mb thermal trough lifts
offshore. But the uncertainty instead lies in how quickly do
sustained west winds subside, which would affect how low
temperatures get tonight in what`s otherwise a good radiational
cooling night. Could have some sub-freezing lows in the more
outlying areas in western MA/CT, but in RI/eastern MA winds probably
stay up just enough to support lows in the mid 30s, with upper
30s/low 40s in the cities and across the Cape and Islands.

Wednesday:

Mostly clear to start, but will see increased mid and high level
moisture in a developing strong warm advection pattern. This occurs
ahead of a Clipper-low which is expected to energize into a sub-1000
mb cyclone by Wed aftn as it treks into the St. Lawrence Valley (and
even deeper by Wed night, see the long-term AFD). Although Wed ends
up being dry, expect a variable amt of cloud cover thru the day,
greater north and west comprising a midlevel cloud deck with lesser,
more filtered clouds towards the south coast. Despite the variable
cloud cover, tightening SWly gradient with shallow mixing should
allow for breezy SW winds to develop, strongest by afternoon with
gusts in the 25 mph range. Highs top out in the 50s, but lower-mid
50s north where midlevel cloud cover is more likely to temper
insolation, and in the upper 50s, perhaps near 60 near the southern
coastline where more peeks of sun will be met by cooling influence
of an onshore SW breeze off the water.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Changeable and active weather pattern ahead.

* Potential for strong winds behind a clipper system Wednesday
  night into Thursday.

* Mostly seasonable temperatures through the week with highs mostly
  in the 50s, occasionally dipping into the 40s

Guidance is coming into better agreement depicting a potent clipper
system passing north of Southern New England. Main concern with this
feature will be rapid pressure rises behind it as it pulls away and
strengthens in the Gulf of Maine. Notably, the GFS depicts 3 hour
pressure rises of +7mb/3hr Wednesday night into the early morning
hours Thursday. Looking aloft, 925mb winds increase to between 45
and 55kts, depending on the guidance source. The GFS has the
strongest low level winds over much of the CWA while the EURO is
more limited and has the the highest values over the Cape and
Islands. In any case, cold advection will likely allow for deep
mixing (up to ~850mb) and steep low level lapse rates (8-9 C/km). If
the jet is positioned over the area then strong winds near the top
of the mixing layer would have little trouble mixing to the surface
Wednesday night. Higher confidence in colder temperatures Thursday
as 850 temps plunge to -10C. These temperatures would support highs
struggling out of the lower and mid 40s for most, add in a stiff NW
wind, and apparent temperatures may struggle out of the 30s.

Another frontal system pushes through Friday night, bringing another
chance for some showers heading into the weekend. NAEFS guidance is
indicating IVT reaching the 90th percentile of climatology over
southern New England Friday night, lining up with elevated S flow
with WAA (925 mb temperatures approach 10C in this period once
again). Ensemble mean PWAT values range between 0.8" and 0.95" pre-
frontal passage; so with this elevated moisture and the approaching
front, more showers are expected. High pressure returns once again
to dry things out briefly heading into Sunday before anomalous
troughing continues into early next week. Through the whole week
into the weekend, high temperatures are expected to remain primarily
in the 40s and 50s behind the fronts, with some spots reaching the
low 60s towards the southern coastlines and even up into SE MA ahead
of the cold fronts amidst WAA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today: High confidence.

VFR. WNW winds around 15-20 kt with gusts 35-40 kt. Gusts
starting to peak around 13-15z thru sundown.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR. WNW to W winds around 10-15 kt early tonight, which then
shift to WSW around 5-10 kt thru overnight.

Wednesday: High confidence.

VFR, with approaching midlevel OVC. SW winds increase to around
10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. LLWS possible.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Chance RA.

Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 40 kt.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Key Messages:

* NW gale-force gusts today, slowly decreasing into tonight.

* SW winds into SCA range / borderline gale southern waters Wed.

* Strong gale-force gusts likely Wed night.

Today and Tonight: High confidence.

WNW gusts 35-40 kt over the waters today, with gusts decreasing
into the 25-30 kt range by midnight. Will need to downshift
gale warnings over to SCAs. By overnight, west winds then
decrease to around 15-20 kt. Seas 7-10 ft over the outer waters
and around 2-4 ft nearshore today, which will more steadily
decrease tonight to around 3-5 ft.

Wednesday: Moderate to high confidence.

SW winds increase to 25-30 kt, though we could have a period of
SW gales on the southern waters late in the day. Seas 3-5 ft to
start, but then build quite a bit by the afternoon on the
southern waters to around 7-10 ft. Dry weather prevails during
the daytime hrs.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough
seas up to 17 ft. Chance of rain.

Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Rain likely.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ003>007-
     010>024-026.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ002-008-009.
RI...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/FT
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...Loconto/FT
MARINE...Loconto/FT