Greenville, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

050
FXUS61 KBOX 221538
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1038 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues this weekend as temperatures moderate to
more normal levels. Above normal temperatures are anticipated
for early to mid week and some locations may reach into the 50s
Tuesday and Wednesday. A few spot showers are possible around
Tuesday, then it gradually turns cooler and more unsettled
toward the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages...

* Plenty of sunshine with highs today in the middle-upper 30s

Winds stayed gusty a little longer and were more from the NW
than W this morning. Tweaked the forecast to acknowledge these
observed trends. Add some mainly high level clouds to the mix,
and thinking high temperatures will be complicated this
afternoon. Latest visible satellite data showing some lower
clouds chained to the Berkshires, then expanding east across
central MA and northern CT. Lowered high temperatures slightly
for today given the signs of strong cold air advection and a
little less sunshine expected into this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...

A ridge of high pressure to our south will control our weather
today. This will result in plenty of sunshine with less wind
than yesterday given the weakening pressure gradient. 925T on
the order of -6C with light westerly will push highs into the
middle to upper 30s today. Winds will be lighter than
yesterday...generally from the WSW at 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Just some clouds tonight with lows upper teens to middle 20s

* Partly sunny Sunday & milder. Highs mainly between 40-45

Details...

Tonight...

A moisture starved shortwave will cross the region tonight.
Other than a period of cloudiness, dry weather will prevail
given the lack of moisture and low level forcing. Low temps
tonight will be in the upper teens to the middle 20s.

Sunday...

High pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic coast on Sun. This will
result in a mixture of clouds and sunshine with milder temps.
The increasing late February sun angle with 925T between -4C/-5C
should allow highs to reach the upper 30s in the highest terrain
to between 40 and 45 elsewhere. Based on the pattern
recognition/time of year...guidance temps appeared too cool and
we increased them a few degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* A couple of nuisance systems early next week, better chance
  for a more active pattern by late next week.

* Warming trend through the middle part of the upcoming week,
  then falling temperatures into next weekend.

As discussed the previous few nights next week features mainly
quiet conditions with warming temperatures, dare say it may
feel a bit like early spring? Near zonal flow in the mid-levels
will be the main feature for much of the week ahead, with a few
weak shortwaves that ride through, with a few hit or miss
showers. As we approach the end of the week, Thursday/Friday,
ridging builds across the western CONUS and troughing in the
eastern CONUS, thus leading to more unsettled pattern to end the
workweek and potentially into next weekend.

Lacking moisture and strong lift, the shortwaves that push
through New England between Monday night and Tuesday are
likely to only have nuisance affects, mainly spot showers.
Tuesday night into Wednesday the shortwave is more robust, but
the higher PWATs exit ahead of the best forcing, likely a dry
cold front passage. Opt`d to leave in low slight chance POPs
during this period, if there were enough moisture these showers
would be in the form of rain as temperatures turn mild this
week, more on that in a second. Late this week there is a shift
in the mid-level pattern, leading to a more active pattern.
Period of weather between Thursday and Friday is unsettled with
a deepening trough and surface low development. Given this is
nearly a week away there are many unknowns; coastal low or
inland runner, cold enough for all snow or wintry mix, and the
exact timing. Did lean heavily on the NBM which gave widespread
`Chance` POPs Thursday afternoon through midday Friday.

As advertised, should have a mild stretch of temperatures Monday
through Wednesday, still have uncertainty with regard to
Thursday as the confidence in the timing of that is rather low.
Enjoy this brief spring-like stretch, because temperatures will
trend cooler Friday into next weekend. Seasonable daytime highs
on Monday with interior southern New England in the upper-30s
and coastal plain in the low to middle 40s. Tuesday and
Wednesday are likely the warmest days with daytime highs in the
mid-40s to low-50s. There is an outside chance we could over
perform and exceed the low-50s if there is enough sunshine and
mixing of the boundary layer, that would be an added BONUS! As
mentioned, Thursday is a bit of a toss, if the next system is
slower to come through, could have a 4th mild day across the
region, before the cooling trend returns Friday into this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High Confidence.

VFR. WNW 5-10 knots with gusts up to 25 kt, shift to the SW with
diminishing gusts this afternoon.

Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. Light SW winds.

Sunday...High Confidence.

VFR. W winds around 10 knots.

KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday through Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA.

Wednesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High Confidence.

High pressure building to our south will result in winds/seas
remaining mainly below Small Craft Advisory levels. It`s
marginal for the need to extend these advisories into tonight.

Tonight and Sunday...High Confidence.

High pressure to our south gradually moves off the Mid Atlantic
coast tonight and Sunday. This will result in WSW flow and
marginal Small Craft wind gusts on the order of 20-25 knots.
Will consider Small Craft headlines as more data comes in, but
at this time not planning on issuing any.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Belk/Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Belk/Frank/Dooley
MARINE...Belk/Frank/Dooley