Foster Center, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

457
FXUS61 KBOX 170834
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
434 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry weather today into Friday, along with a warming
trend. Low risk for some showers Friday afternoon across
northern MA. Breezy and warm weather expected Saturday, along
with scattered showers ahead of an approaching cold front. Drier
and mild behind the front Sunday. Weather pattern turns more
unsettled early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Dry and breezy

Low pressure moves farther away from the Maritimes today,
relaxing the pressure gradient a little. While still gusty,
thinking it will not be quite as strong as yesterday. Expecting
near normal high temperatures today. Favored the lowest dew
point guidance, as cases of west winds with deeper mixing tend
to come in with lower humidity than guidance would otherwise
suggest. This could lead to some fire weather concerns, if fuels
can sufficiently dry out. Minimum relative humidity across the
interior should be between 20-30 percent, but could be lower if
temperatures overachieve the current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry conditions continue
* Low risk for showers across northern MA Friday

High pressure moves from the central Appalachians to the Mid
Atlantic coast tonight. With diminishing winds and mainly clear
skies, good radiational cooling should result. That said, still
thinking low temperatures will be near normal. Increasing
southwest winds Friday should lead to above normal temperatures.
Plenty of sunshine to start the day, with a mid level shortwave
moving across northern New England in the afternoon. That could
lead to some showers across northern MA during the afternoon.
There should at least be some clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Widely scattered shower chances return Friday night and
  Saturday, dry on Sunday.

* Above normal temperatures Saturday with highs in low-mid 70s,
  with potential for upper 70s in spots

* Mainly dry Monday with showers arriving early evening.


Friday Night through Weekend:

The weak lift with the warm front coupled with a plume of above
normal moisture will support scattered showers Friday night and
Saturday. Continued warm advection into Saturday will support a
warm day Saturday even despite the cloud cover and showery
conditions. 850mb temperatures warm to 12-14C and with afternoon
mixing will likely support highs in the 70s for much of southern
New England. There are even ensemble members that display the
potential for upper 70s and a few 80s in spots, mainly within
the GFS ensemble. It will likely come down to how many breaks
in the cloud we get. A tightened pressure gradient/LLJ present
will support stronger southerly flow with gusts 25-35 mph,
perhaps a few gusts up to 40 mph for the higher elevation spots.


The cold front swings through by Saturday night switching winds
to the NW. Conditions gradually dry out into early Sunday
morning. A cooler airmass advects in behind the front overnight
Saturday into Sunday supporting a cooler day with highs in the
50s for the Cape/Islands and low-mid 60s elsewhere. Breezy
conditions continue, but out of the NW with gusts 20-35 mph.

Early Next Week:

A brief upper level ridge shifts over southern New England
Monday yielding light NW winds and dry conditions for much of
the day. Temperatures trend slightly cooler than Sunday with
highs in the 50s to near 60. There is a general consensus among
model guidance for our next system to moves through sometime in
the late Monday-Tuesday timeframe. There are notable differences
in timing of the system which in the grand scheme will impact
the timing of precipitation. Some solutions develop showers as
early as late afternoon Monday while others show showers
arriving Monday night. When with a mean for now with low chances
for isolated showers developing from west to east late afternoon
and increasing chances for early evening and onward. This will
be finer tuned as we get closer. Overall, precip looks to be
light.

Tuesday likely stays unsettled for the AM as the remaining
showers exit off to the east followed by gradually drying
conditions behind it. Highs trend around normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence for the entire period.

VFR for the next 36 hours. Only scattered clouds expected today.
Gusty surface winds again today before diminishing tonight.

KBOS TAF...High confidence.

KBDL TAF...High confidence.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight
chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Overall high confidence in the forecast.

Key Points:

* Gusty winds to continue today, but slowly diminishing

Winds and seas gradually diminish across the waters late today
into tonight as high pressure moves across the waters.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254-
     256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Belk/Mensch
MARINE...Belk/Mensch