Charlestown, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

663
FXUS61 KBOX 112010
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
410 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will lift northeast of the mid-Atlantic coast tonight
into Saturday. This will bring mainly rain to areas along and
southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor...but some snow and
sleet is expected across the interior and especially the higher
terrain. Precipitation will taper off to pockets of light rain and
drizzle Saturday afternoon. Additional showers are likely in eastern
New England on Sunday followed dry and milder conditions
Monday. A frontal system will bring another period of showers
Monday night into Tuesday then mainly dry and blustery Wednesday
and Thursday. The pattern turns unsettled again next Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/...

Key Messages...

* Rain & wet snow mainly after midnight into Sat AM
* Ptype mainly rain southeast of I-95 but some snow/sleet NW of I-95
* 1-4" of wet snow/sleet across interior high terrain
* Main impacts to roads confined to elevations at or above 1K feet

Details...

High pressure over Quebec will be just enough to support another
round of wet snow/sleet across interior southern New England later
tonight into Sat morning.

Low pressure will lift northeast from the mid Atlantic coast
tonight. This coupled with high pressure over Quebec will result in
a modest easterly LLJ developing across southern New England. While
much of the evening will be dry...except perhaps for a bit of rain
by late evening near the south coast. The better forcing will arrive
from south to north after midnight and continue into Sat morning.
Thermal profiles are a touch milder than last night...so Ptype will
mainly be rain southeast of I-95 although a few wet snow
flakes/sleet pellets may be mixed in at the onset.
However...northwest of I-95 enough cooling via dynamic/adiabatic
processes to support a period of wet snow and perhaps some sleet. In
fact...there is a brief but strong band of mid level frontogenesis
with 30-40 units of omega in the snowgrowth region. Therefore...we
are thinking a brief burst of 1-4" of wet snow across portions of
interior MA. Given marginal boundary layer temperatures and the time
of year...roadways will remain wet or only very briefly become slush
covered in the lower elevations overnight into Sat morning.
However...at elevations near and above 1000 feet roads may become
snow covered for a time into Sat morning. Therefore...we did issue a
Winter Weather Advisory for the high terrain of the Berks/northern
Worcester Hills as well as all of Franklin county.

Overnight low temps will mainly be in the lower to middle 30s. It
will also become quite breezy along the coast by Sat morning with NE
wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* Precipitation changes/tapers off to pockets of light rain/drizzle
  Sat afternoon which continues Sat night with focus near the coast

* Quite raw and chilly Sat afternoon & night with temps mainly in
  the 30s and a gusty NE breeze along the coast

Details...

Saturday afternoon and night...

Low pressure will meander to our south Sat afternoon and night...but
the stronger forcing/deeper moisture will lift north of the region.
Therefore...expect precipitation to diminish in intensity and areal
coverage. Nonetheless...moist onshore flow will continue to result in
pockets of light rain/drizzle and fog Sat afternoon and night. It
will be raw and quite chilly too with temps generally in the 30s
with gusty NE winds near the coast. Temps may hover around freezing
in the highest terrain...so some pockets of light freezing drizzle
will be possible but with temps near 31/32 do not expect much of an
impact.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Key Messages:

* Rain lingers across eastern Massachusetts Sunday

* More showers Mon night into Tue as a frontal system moves through

* Mainly dry and blustery Wed and Thu with below normal temps

* Another frontal system may bring an increasing risk of wet weather
  Fri but timing uncertain.

Details...

Cutoff low south of New Eng moves to the east during Sun, but deep
moisture plume lingering across eastern New Eng will result in a raw
day here with on and off showers, gusty N winds and cool temps,
while some drying and somewhat milder temps expected in the CT
valley. This system moves out by Monday as brief ridging builds in
to the region leading to sunshine and seasonable temps.

Next northern stream shortwaves will amplify as it moves into New
Eng on Tue. The attending cold front will swing through Mon night
and will be accompanied by a period of showers. The front moves
offshore Tue, but the upper trough is hanging back to the west with
shortwave energy rotating through with a secondary cold front so
scattered showers expected to develop. Mild temps in the 60s
expected.

Cooler airmass and blustery conditions settle in Wed-Thu but mainly
dry weather with slightly below normal temps. Then next in a series
of northern stream shortwaves approaches for the end of the week.
Timing and amplitude of this system is uncertain and GFS is more
aggressive than ECMWF bringing in showers for Fri. But EPS is wetter
than the deterministic run indicating 20-40% probs of greater than
0.10" QPF, while GEFS is showing 40-60%. Will have chance of showers
for Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

This afternoon...High Confidence.

Lingering MVFR ceilings mainly northwest of I-95 will trend
towards VFR given diurnal heating...but skies will remain mostly
cloudy. ENE winds 5-10 knots.

Tonight into Saturday...High Confidence.

VFR dominates this evening...but lower end MVFR-IFR redevelop
after midnight and persist into Saturday with some localized
LIFR conditions. This a result of the next round of
precipitation overspreading the region from south to north.
Ptype will generally be rain southeast of I-95...but expect some
wet snow and sleet into Sat morning northwest of I-95. Runways
in the lower elevations should generally remain wet...but above
1000 feet they may become snow covered for a few hours Sat
morning. Precipitation tapers off and changes to mainly to
light rain/drizzle Sat afternoon. NE winds will gust to between
20 and 30 knots along the coast and around 35 knots or so for a
time across Nantucket.

Saturday night...High Confidence.

Low end MVFR-IFR conditions with localized LIFR conditions continue
in areas of rain/drizzle and fog with the focus for that across
the coastal plain. NNE winds 5-15 knots.

KBOS TAF...High Confidence. Some wet snow/sleet may be mixed
with the rain in the 10z to 16z time frame...but runways will
remain wet.

KBDL TAF...High Confidence. A period of wet snow/sleet in the 8z
to 14z time frame...but runways should remain generally wet.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Monday: VFR.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Saturday night...High Confidence.

High pressure over Quebec coupled with slow moving low pressure to
our south will result in modest pressure gradient. The result will
be NE wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots developing later tonight into
Saturday with a few gusts up to 40 knots possible across the
southern waters. Gale warnings are posted for the southern waters
with strong small craft headlines across the northern waters. Winds
will only slowly diminish Sat night so will need to continue small
craft headlines.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
     MAZ002>004-008-009-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ230.
     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ231>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ251.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank/KJC
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...Frank/KJC
MARINE...Frank/KJC