York, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

041
FXUS61 KCTP 120159
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
959 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Threat for elevated risk of wildfire spread has diminished
  since afternoon.
* Nudged temperatures down tonight with high pressure overhead,
  calm winds, and dry air in place; widespread frost likely in
  northern/eastern PA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Diminishing winds & cloud-free skies overnight, with frost
north & east.

2) Warm up begins on Sunday and continues through the week;
near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.

3) Unsettled weather expected next week, with several waves of
showers and thunderstorms especially in the north and west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Diminishing winds & cloud-free skies overnight,
with frost north & east.

Overnight, high pressure moves across New York ushering in
clear skies, calm winds, and efficient radiational cooling.

Have issued a Frost Advisory for temperatures falling below 36F
in portions of the Mid and Lower Susquehanna Valley where the
growing season is active and confidence is highest in frost
formation.

Locations along and north of I-80 should be prepared for
frost/freeze conditions tonight as well, despite the growing
season not officially being active yet (and thus no Frost/Freeze
products will be issued yet).

    ----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm up begins on Sunday and continues through
the upcoming week. Near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and
Thursday.

High pressure moves east and a warm/moist southwest flow will
develop Sunday afternoon. That influx of warm/moist air will
usher in a prolonged period of warmer-than-average temperatures
through the upcoming week.

On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good
agreement that a mean upper-level trough will set up shop across
the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold
from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will likely
set the stage for a notable warming trend, with daily highs
ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday
onward.

The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the
region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows
Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs
this time of year. Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows
in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F
mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable.

     ----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Unsettled weather expected next week, with
several waves of showers and thunderstorms especially in the
north and west.

The storm track for next week will be centered across the Great
Lakes, with multiple waves of low pressure drifting into
Ontario. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east
across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across
northwest PA in particular. A few shortwaves along the
prevailing trough could locally enhance the chance for severe
weather, which is well supported by some of the NCAR Ensemble
guidance that highlights an elevated severe threat Tuesday (NW),
Wednesday (all of PA) and Thursday (southeast PA).

Shower and storm chances will be highest in northwest PA.
Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more
rain, while drought-stricken locations across the southeast will
see less rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR prevails across central PA as of 00Z, with high confidence
(>90%) in VFR continuing through the end of the TAF period.

A high pressure moving across the Northeast will settle over
the Western Atlantic, bringing southerly flow across the region
on Sunday, along with mid/high clouds ahead of a low pressure
that will be moving across the Northern Great Lakes. Some light
rain showers may move across the Northern Tier (KBFD) as a warm
front associated with this low pressure lifts across the area,
with a PROB30 added for showers between 19Z-23Z based on the
HREF. With that said, flight restrictions appear unlikely due to
these showers, with VFR still expected to prevail.

Outlook...

Mon...Flight restrictions due to lowering ceilings and
scattered showers, especially north and west.

Tue-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible
in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the
north and west.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ027-028-
049>052-056-057-059-066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff/Martin
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Banghoff/Martin
AVIATION...Teare