Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

689
FXUS61 KBGM 251023
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
623 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
PoPs were once again bumped up across CNY and NE PA from the
NBM for this afternoon with lake effect/lake enhanced rain
showers expected.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers continue today and will be most widespread
during the afternoon before tapering off this evening.

2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather
Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to return Thursday into Friday before drying back out
heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The upper level trough and closed low that have been impacting
the area the past few days will finally shift off to our north
and east this evening. However, prior to its departure
additional lake effect/lake enhanced showers will be around
today. Southwesterly flow in place early this morning will lead
to shower activity being concentrated near and north of the NYS
Thruway. An embedded shortwave aloft will round the base of the
departing trough and cross the region from northwest to
southeast turning the flow more northwesterly later this morning
and into the afternoon. This will allow for isolated to
scattered lake effect/lake enhanced rain showers to spread
farther south and east once again through CNY and potentially
into NE PA. As with the previous forecasts, PoPs were increased
from the NBM this afternoon as the NBM tends to be underdone
with shower coverage and not extend far enough southeast in this
setup.

Temperature-wise, it will be another day with a bit of a fall-
like feel in some place with highs in the upper 60s to the mid
70s. Parts of the Wyoming and Delaware River Valleys can make a
run into the upper 70s this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in
the upper 40s to the mid 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure briefly builds in tonight into Wednesday with dry
conditions. The next cold front starts to approach from the
west Thursday morning and moves through later Thursday into
early Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. An area
of low pressure may form near the Southeast Coast and lift
northeast ahead of the front, enhancing the moisture across
parts of the area (especially around the Poconos and Catskills).
This could result in locally drenching downpours; PWATs look to
rise to 1.25-1.50 inches on average. WPC does have NE PA,
portions of the Southern Tier and the Catskills outlooked in a
Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall
Thursday/Thursday night, which is farther north than 24 hours
ago, so this will be a trend to monitor.

In terms of the potential for severe weather during this time,
there is on average 30 knots of 0-6km bulk shear late Thursday
morning through the afternoon with 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The
GFS and NAM both show some areas of 0-3km SRH values of
125-150+ m2/s2 and LCL heights on the NAM are generally under
1000m while the GFS is higher outside of the Catskills and
Poconos, with values near or greater than 1500m. Putting this
all together, there are ingredients in place that could result
in some stronger storms in the afternoon and evening, so this
too bears watching.

High pressure looks to build back in with drier conditions for
the start of next weekend. Temperatures will be on the rise
Wednesday through Friday with highs generally in the mid 70s to
near 80 degrees. The Lake Plain and portions of the Finger Lakes
do look a bit warmer on Thursday ahead of the front with some
places reaching the lower and mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A west-northwest flow has developed, bringing MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt
CIGs across most of our taf sites this morning. IFR will be
possible at RME, especially through 15z this morning. A band of
lake effect rain showers is expected to impact RME and perhaps
SYR this morning. This lake effect rain may reduce visibility
down to MVFR levels at times at these two sites.

The MVFR stratus clouds/CIGs should scatter out and lift to VFR
by 16-21z areawide. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail
across the region heading into this evening. Valley fog is
likely to form late tonight into early Wednesday morning, mainly
impacting ELM with a period of IFR/LIFR restrictions.

Southwesterly winds will become westerly later this morning and
then eventually northwesterly by midday. Winds will be between
5 to 10 kts with gusts of 15 to 20 kts possible during the late
morning and afternoon hours. Winds quickly diminish, becoming
light and variable less than 5 kts after sunset.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday morning...Mainly VFR, restrictions
possible with morning fog.

Thursday Afternoon through Friday...Potential restrictions with
an incoming frontal system bringing showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...MJM