Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

649
FXUS61 KBGM 161843
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
243 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and more humid with showers through Thursday.

2) Pleasant weather for Friday through most of Saturday.

3) A more active pattern returns starting later Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Increasing humidity and temperatures are expected through
Thursday with a warm front crossing just north of the area
earlier in the day. Within this warmer and more humid airmass a
few scattered showers will be possible through tonight, but
forcing is limited for any more organized activity. Showers will
increase in coverage starting early Thursday morning as both a
weak sfc low and cold front approach and cross the region
through the day. With PWat values increasing close to 2.00
inches during the day Thursday, heavier downpours will be
possible with showers and thunderstorms that develop with
increasing instability. The greatest potential for thunderstorms
is expected for the southwestern portions of the area, where
some slightly better instability is expected. Showers will end
from west to east during the first half of the evening hours
Thursday as the cold front associated with the system tracks
east across the area. Temperatures ahead of this cold front will
warm to the mid 70s, with some upper 70s to near 80 possible
for areas where there maybe more breaks in the showers and
clouds.

Rainfall amounts on Thursday are expected to range from around a
third to half an inch, with some locally higher amounts possible
with thunderstorms that develop.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Behind the passing cold front late Thursday, a cooler and drier
airmass will settle into the region. High pressure will track
southeast across Canada and into New England Friday through
Saturday. This will result in mostly sunny/clear skies Friday
into early Saturday morning. With the cooler airmass associated
with the sfc high, temperatures for both Friday and Saturday
will only reach the mid 60s to low 70s.

Clouds will start to increase on Saturday afternoon ahead of the
next approaching system. More on that below.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

Showers will make a return to the region starting Saturday
evening as a sfc low tracks out of the Tennessee Valley,
northeast to the mid-Atlantic coast through the day on Sunday.
This sfc low will pull moisture north as a cold front approaches
from the northwest. There is still some uncertainty on the
track of the sfc low and timing of the rain overall with the sfc
high over the region earlier in the weekend providing some
resistance to the incoming low. However, with that said the
potential for widespread rainfall for most of Sunday is
possible. Rain/showers will taper off Sunday evening.

Forecast guidance is not in the best agreement for the potential for
showers from Monday onward next week, with at least the chance for
showers each day from at least one model. This is just an indicator
that drier weather is less likely for next week at this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A swath of overcast skies is currently present across CNY,
bringing MVFR ceilings to many areas. These conditions should
last into the early evening.

Some patchy clearing this evening into the early overnight hours
combined with light boundary layer winds and high moisture at
the surface will allow for fog to develop across the region.
The best chance for IFR and lower restrictions will be at ELM,
where guidance has LIFR fog settling in through most of the
night, then lifting to IFR as some moderate rain showers move in
thru the morning hours. ITH/BGM/SYR/RME are showing some signs
for fog development and IFR restrictions tonight as well, but
confidence is not high enough to include IFR fog at this time.
These terminals should see IFR restrictions set in when rain
moves overhead during the early morning hours, and keep these
restrictions through the morning hours. Timing of rain onset is
still a little uncertain, with the possibility of some
scattered showers ahead of the main swath of rain. If rain moves
in earlier, IFR restrictions should start earlier.


Outlook...

Wednesday Night...Scattered showers and associated restrictions
develop.

Thursday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in
occasional restrictions, especially in the afternoon.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...Rain expected for much of the
period. Periods of IFR restrictions possible.

Monday... Scattered rain showers and associated restrictions
possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJW
AVIATION...JTC