Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

867
FXUS61 KBGM 180003
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
803 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Main changes with the afternoon forecast package were to remove
the chance for thunder for most of the area due to extensive
cloud cover/not enough instability and to lower forecast
temperatures by a few degrees (also due to the extensive cloud
cover). Still cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm, but
chances continue to decrease for this to happen.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered rain showers this afternoon into early this evening
will give way to cooler and drier weather Friday through
Saturday.

2) An unsettled weather pattern will take shape beginning on
Sunday with multiple rounds of rain showers and cool
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Extensive cloud cover today has significantly limited daytime
heating/instability and therefore the potential for
thunderstorms have decreased. Still cannot rule out an isolated
thunderstorm, especially if pockets of clearing develop. Locally
heavy rainfall/isolated flash flooding still cannot be ruled
out, but this potential has also decreased.

Showers will gradually end from west to this evening, as the
front moves east of the area. This will set the stage for a
mostly sunny day on Friday with highs in the upper 60s to upper
70s as high pressure will be in control. Friday night will be
seasonably chilly with good radiational cooling conditions
present. Lows in the 40s are expected Friday night/early
Saturday morning, but some of the usual colder spots in northern
Oneida County/parts of the Catskills may drop down the mid to
upper 30s. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out in these locations,
but confidence was not high enough at this time to include in
the official forecast just yet.

One more dry day is expected on Saturday with high pressure
remaining in control. Mostly sunny skies are expected, although
some higher clouds may sneak in from the west later in the day
ahead of the next system. Highs on Saturday are expected to be
in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another low pressure system will approach from the west
Saturday night into Sunday, bringing the next round of rain to
the area. Southwesterly flow ahead of the low will transport
moisture northward, supporting the potential for moderate to
widespread rainfall. Showers may continue through much of
Sunday before gradually tapering off by Sunday evening. Monday
currently looks mainly dry as surface high pressure develops
north of the Great Lakes. That being said, some lingering
showers will be possible in Northeast PA on Monday.

Model guidance begins to diverge by Tuesday, leading to
increasing uncertainity in how the midweek pattern will evolve.
Either way, the general pattern is looking cool and unsettled,
but timing of the scattered rain showers is very uncertain, with
dry periods in between.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Mostly VFR conditions across the region as a cold front slowly
moves from NW to SE. Earlier IFR/MVFR cloud decks have lifted a
bit as drier air works its way in behind the front, with only
ITH holding on to MVFR with some extra lake moisture getting
pushed into the terminal.

Restrictions are expected to return tonight as we have some low
level moisture trapped near the surface, allowing for the cloud
deck to lower to MVFR restrictions. Clouds should start to
scatter out from NW to SE later tonight as dry air wins out,
bringing VFR conditions to most of the terminals. ELM may see
some IFR and lower clouds and visibility to develop as the
clouds scatter and we get some better surface cooling.
Confidence in this occurring is moderate as it will also
require boundary layer winds need to lighten up, but may have
difficulties doing this with the cold air advection occurring.
Went with a TEMPO group for LIFR ceilings that may need to turn
into a prevailing group on the next TAF set. ITH is also
expected to see a period of IFR conditions as skies scatter
later tonight and lake moisture gets pushed up to the terminal.
Guidance is not showing as much confidence in IFR and lower here
vs. ELM, but the lake moisture should allow for some temporary
IFR restrictions before sunrise.


Outlook...

Friday Night and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...Rain expected for much of the
period. Periods of IFR restrictions possible.

Monday through Tuesday... Scattered rain showers and associated
restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...JTC