Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

063
FXUS61 KBGM 130628
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
228 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and early evening. Rain chances have decreased on Thursday.
Temperatures are trending warmer over the weekend and into early
next week with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) An incoming low pressure system will bring periods of rain this
morning, followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. There is the potential for a few isolated
strong to severe storms, with small hail and gusty winds.

2) An upper level low will spin directly over the area on Thursday,
bringing cool weather and a few showers. The upper level low begins
to slowly exit east of the forecast area later on Friday, with
conditions drying out.

3) A significant warming trend is expected to develop over the
weekend and especially early next week. High temperatures surge into
the 80s and perhaps even low 90s for some locations. While the
weather is forecast to be mainly dry, there could also be a few
afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorms around each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES 1...

A low pressure system is passing by to our north this morning,
bringing periods of rain along its warm front. Periods of rain
continue, transitioning to scattered or numerous showers later this
morning as the cold frontal boundary approaches from the west. A
quasi dry slow works in from the west by early to mid afternoon,
which will allow for some modest daytime heating and destabilization.
It looks like there could be between 300-800 J/kg of MLCAPE for
areas along and west of I-81 late this afternoon and early
evening. This will depend on if we do indeed see at least some
breaks of sun and better heating. If the clouds stay locked in
then instability parameters will end up on the lower end. As the
final front swings through guidance is showing between 30-45kts
of deep layer 0-6km bulk shear over the area. CAMs are showing
scattered thunderstorms potentially congealing into a linear
mode before sunset, and tracking east over the region. SPC
continues to advertise a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for
isolated severe storms with damaging winds being the main
threat; this will be for the west- central portion of the area.
Cannot rule out some small hail as well if the storm`s updrafts
can become strong enough. Model soundings are showing both steep
low level and mid level lapse rates, on the order of 7.5C/KM,
so this can aid in storm development. DCAPE values will be
elevated, up around 700 J/Kg, with soundings showing dry mid
level air present. Again, this could lead to isolated gusty to
damaging winds being forces to the surface with a few of these
thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The 500mb and 700mb vertically stacked low is forecast to spin
directly over Central NY and Northeast PA on Thursday. The latest
model guidance is beginning to indicate there will be a dry slot over
much of the area Thursday morning and early afternoon, leading to
mostly cloudy skies and just a stray shower. As the low drifts
southeast, eventually wrap around moisture and a better chance for
scattered showers will arrive late Thursday into Thursday night.
This timeframe will be very cool, with highs in the 50s to maybe low
60s and overnight lows in the 40s.

By Friday the low is already moving away from the area, with only a
low chance for lingering showers over the Catskills and Poconos,
mainly in the morning. Otherwise, skies will turn partly sunny
through the day and temperatures will be milder, in the 60s for highs.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Upper level ridging begins to push into the area over the weekend.
The ridge will still be somewhat flat and zonal, so a few fast
moving waves will push through. These will bring a slight chance to
low end chance for a shower or storm, depending on timing and exact
track of the weak low pressure centers. The main story will be the
substantial warm up for our area. Temperatures reach well into the
70s to near 80 on Saturday, upper 70s to mid-80s on Sunday. Then,
the latest guidance is trending much hotter for Monday and Tuesday,
with mid-80s to lower 90s now expected. Current guidance has Tuesday
as the hottest day this week and of the season thus far, as 850mb
temperatures reach +18C. Dew points rise up to around 60s Monday
afternoon, so it won`t feel overly humid just yet...by Tuesday dew
points reach the mid 60s and we will begin to feel the humidity. It
may be time to think about dusting off the AC units, getting them
out of storage and ready to use soon. Overnight lows are forecast to
be very warm by Monday and Tuesday, in the 60s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected until this afternoon,
although very brief MVFR ceiling and/or visby restrictions
cannot be completely ruled out at the Central NY terminals as
light rain showers move through. By late this morning/early
afternoon more widespread MVFR ceiling restrictions are expected
to move in, first at KRME then gradually the rest of the
terminals as the afternoon progresses. A little bit more
uncertainty for this at KELM and KITH, as it is possible that
the MVFR restrictions could be brief before returning to VFR.

There will also be a potential for a line of gusty thunderstorms
to move through the region late this afternoon/early this
evening, but confidence in seeing thunder at any particular
terminal is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

Light and variable winds will pick up from the south after 12Z,
with occasional gusts of 20-25 kts possible in the afternoon.
Winds become light and variable once again this evening.

Outlook:

Thursday through Thursday night...Isolated to scattered showers
with occasional restrictions possible.

Friday...Gradual improvement back to VFR by the afternoon.

Friday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday or Sunday afternoons.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...BJG