Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

218
FXUS61 KBGM 241154
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
654 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased PoPs, QPF and snow amounts down wind of the
Finger Lakes into the Twin Tiers as multi-bands of lake effect
snow continue tonight. Snow amounts will still be light, but
could see localized 2-3 inches through the overnight hours SSE
of the Finger Lakes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light lake effect snow across the Finger Lakes expected thru
the morning hours.

2) Cold clipper system with accumulating snow moves through the
Northeast late Tuesday night through the day Wednesday.

3) Another potential winter system is possible late Thursday into
Friday, but trends are pushing it south.

4) Widely varying temperatures this weekend with warm conditions
Saturday, followed by a cold blast Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Lake effect snow continues across CNY into NEPA tonight.
850mb temperatures around -16C are moving across unfrozen Great
Lake waters with temps around 0-4C. NW flow through the boundary
layer with a connection to the Georgian Bay has produced
steadier, more widespread snow than guidance suggested earlier
today. Soundings show saturation through the DGZ tonight into
the morning hours for much of the area. PoPs, QPF and Snow
fall amounts had to be manually adjusted based on radar trends
and observations as most guidance was too low on QPF amounts and
ended the snow chances before midnight. 1-3 inches will be
possible into the morning hours, with the highest amounts SE of
the Finger Lakes from S Cayuga into Broome county. Winds will
slowly shift westerly as the morning progresses, pushing the
snow showers to the NE. Snow should end by the early afternoon
as weak ridging builds in and the boundary layer winds become
unfavorable for lake effect development.

Winds will remain active tonight, with gusts up to 35mph
possible in the more moderate snow showers. With the light and
fluffy nature of the snow, blowing snow will be easily achieved,
causing reduced visibilities and snow covered roads across areas
where this is usually an issue. Winds are expected to decrease
by the early afternoon hours.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

A trough will dig into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night with
an associated surface low developing over the northern Great
Lakes and tracking to the east, north of the CWA. This puts us
in the "warm sector" of the low with a warm front that will push
through the area Tuesday night, kicking off snow showers across
the region. Temps will start in the low to mid teens, climbing
to the mid 20s by daybreak. The warm front will provide the lift
to kick off snow showers, but it is expected to push through
pretty quickly, with much of this frontal driven snow ended by
day break. 1-3 inches of snow is currently forecast to fall
across the area, with higher amounts along upslope areas along
and east of I-81.

Temperatures will continue to climb through the day, reaching
the mid to upper 30s for most, with some low 40s in the valleys
of the Southern Tier and NEPA. This warmup will set the stage
for some convectively driven snow showers to develop in the
afternoon ahead of a cold front that will push through the area
in the late afternoon to early evening hours. Soundings show
sufficient CAPE, especially in the DGZ, to get some moderate to
heavy convective showers to develop across the area. Synoptic winds
luckily look to be light, but they could be gusty within the
heavier showers. Given the warm temps at the surface and late
Feb sun angle, accumulations for most areas will be very light
and more than likely stick to elevated surface vs roadways.
Northern Oneida county will have the best chance for snow to
stick as temps will be hovering around freezing in the
afternoon. These showers should dissipate after sundown. Up to
an inch of snow could fall over N Oneida county, with higher
elevations south of the Mohawk Valley seeing a few tenths of an
inch.

Behind the cold front, lake effect snow showers are expected to
develop Wed night into Thursday morning across the Mohawk Valley
and north into the Tug Hill region as westerly winds will
prevail. An additional inch of snow will be possible across this
area.

Having said all of this, N Oneida county looks to see mostly
persistent snow showers from Tues night into Thursday morning
with 3-5 inches of snow expected to fall during this period.
Because of this, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from
1am Wed to 7am Thurs.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

All of the major models are advertising another low pressure
system tracking into the east coast Thursday into Friday.
Deterministic model trends have pushed the low south of our
area as the trough driving it has dug a little farther south but
is not getting very amplified which is allowing the low to move
eastward and not get any kick to push it to the NNE. Ensemble
guidance is a little more uncertain with the GFS suite keeping
snow chances across our area while the Euro suite advertises
the low staying to the south. Because of the uncertainty in the
development of this system, NBM guidance was used and not
altered much. This produces light snow across the area with
amounts in the 1-3 inch range for this time period.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

This weekend could see a drastic temperature swing.

Rising heights on Saturday with SW flow advecting warm air from
the southern US will push the warmest air of 2026 into the
region, with most of the CWA seeing temperatures in the mid to
upper 40s and valleys pushing 50 degrees. Ensemble guidance is
advertising these warm temps as well.

Unfortunately, this brief glimpse of spring will not last long
as a strong cold front will push into the area overnight,
dropping overnight temps into the low to mid 20s. Temps on
Sunday are not expected to recover much as NW flow will persist
in pushing the cold airmass into the region. Highs top out in
the mid to upper 20s for CNY with some low 30s in NEPA. Sunday
night into Monday will see a return of single digit lows across
much of the area, with N Oneida possibly falling below 0.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers off of Lake Ontario and the Finger
Lakes remain pretty widespread across the area with primarily
MVFR/fuel-alt restrictions in place at most of the terminals.
Some of the steadier and heavier narrow bands, especially off
the Finger Lakes, can lead to IFR or worse restrictions for both
ITH and BGM over the next few hours. SYR can also occasionally
see IFR visbys as well.

The lake effect activity is expected to retreat to the north
and east and diminish during the early afternoon, generally
between 17-19Z as winds become more westerly and the flow
eventually turns southwesterly by the evening as high pressure
builds in briefly. As the west to southwesterly flow develops,
ceiling restrictions are expected to retreat and give way to VFR
conditions and lighter winds. VFR will be relatively brief as a
clipper moving in tonight is expected to lead to IFR or worse
conditions starting between 05-08Z. Some borderline SSWerly LLWS
is also possible as the snow develops and moves through tonight
with confidence highest at AVP for now.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Restrictions likely with scattered snow showers or a
mix of rain and snow showers, especially during the afternoon
after a brief lull in activity. Confidence moderate to high.
Scattered snow showers and possible restrictions linger into
Wednesday evening.

Late Wednesday Night - Thursday morning...Mainly VFR; there can
be some scattered lake effect snow showers around SYR/RME.
Confidence moderate.

Thursday afternoon and night...Restrictions possible with
another round of snow and/or rain-snow mix. Confidence low at
this time.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. Confidence moderate to high.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ009.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...DK