Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

263
FXUS61 KBGM 231815
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
115 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisories have ended across the region along with
the threat for accumulating snow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light lake effect snow across the Finger Lakes expected this
evening and tonight.

2) Cold clipper system with light accumulating snow moves through
the Northeast late Tuesday night through the day Wednesday.

3) Another potential winter system is possible late Thursday into
Friday, but may move by to the south.

4) Widely varying temperatures this weekend with warm conditions
Saturday, followed by a cold blast Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cold Canadian air on the back side of the departing, deep
coastal low will be drawn south and sewd across the eastern
Great Lakes starting this evening and tonight. With 850mb
temperatures around -15 to -16 deg C moving across unfrozen
Great Lake waters around 0-4 deg C, a brief period lake effect
snow showers will develop. The potential for significant snow
accumulations will be very low given the relatively shallow
depth of the boundary layer and the minimal amount of residence
time of any band that does organize over a particular area. The
flow pattern will be mostly northwesterly around 290-300 deg
this evening, but then back to around 270-280 later
tonight...pushing any LES bands to the north.

At this time we are looking at around 2 inches or less into the
central and southern Finger Lakes where slight upslope
enhancement may help with accumulation. Would not be surprised
to see amounts near 3 inches in and around northern Tioga
County, especially if there ends up being some Finger Lake
enhancement.

There may also be a wind/blowing snow component with this event
tonight, with wind gusts 20-25 mph causing some reduced
visibilities and also helping to keep secondary roads snow-
covered and potentially hazardous.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next system is expected to move through late Tuesday and
through the day Wednesday in the form of a fast-moving clipper
system across the Northeast US.

The challenge with this system will be related to the potential
for a mix of rain with the snow during the day Wednesday. A
notable push of slightly warmer air is expected to be seen ahead
of the short wave, with 850mb temperatures around -7 deg C.
These conditions will likely keep the precip all snow Tue night
and Wed morning with surface temperatures in the mid to upper
20s. This period is when the majority of the accumulating snow
is expected to fall. Ensemble guidance is indicating around a
50-60 pct chance of at least 2 inches of snow...and the higher
probabilities really drop off above 4 inches.

The challenge arrives later in the day Wednesday when surface
temperatures look to rise into the upper 30s and lower 40s on
the back side of trough axis...at least for a brief period of
time. These temperatures will cause the lingering light snow to
mix with and change to rain...before tapering off Wed evening.
There could be weak lake influence Wed night, but with limited
snow accumulations at least at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

We are also tracking another short wave rounding the bottom of
the long wave trough late Thu into Fri. However, at this time it
appears the short wave will dive far enough south to keep most
of the significant precipitation (likely in the form of snow)
just to our south. Current forecast produces an additional 1-2
inches of snow across our area, but this could very well be too
high. Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement with the
southern track of this wave, but we will continue to monitor the
trends through the next 24 to 48 hours as any significant shift
northward would be seen soon.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

Behind the departing long wave trough, heights are expected to
rise aloft and bring with it a noticeably warmer air mass for a
very brief period of time on Saturday. Ensemble guidance is
indicating a 60-70% chance of temperatures above 45 deg F on
Saturday afternoon. This would be in combination with a fair
amount of sun to make it feel even warmer.

Do not get too used to this because on Sunday the cold air is
expected to return as another clipper system moves eastward
across the northern Great Lakes and into southern Quebec. This
system should be mostly a glancing blow for precipitation, but
it may open the door to a bout of cold air with high
temperatures on Sunday only into the 20s and overnight lows Sun
night down into the single digits and teens above zero.
Additional rounds of lake effect snow are possible during this
time and into early next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYR and RME are currently VFR but will fall to MVFR later this
afternoon. ITH is also stuck in IFR but should improve to Fuel
Alt, though there is some uncertainty when as guidance has
ceilings higher than what they are now. Otherwise, MVFR to Fuel
Alt ceilings are expected at all sites through most, if not all
of this TAF period. Some improvements back to VFR will be
possible at AVP and ELM prior to 18z Tuesday.

There is a band of snow moving east to west and could impacting
BGM within the next couple of hours with a brief reduction of
IFR visibilities. With this band drifting south as it moves
west, a quick amendment may be needed for AVP. Otherwise, there
will be some lake enhanced snow late today and into part of the
overnight hours. RME and AVP should not see this snow but the
rest of the terminals will likely see reduced visibilities as
this snow moves through.

Gust of 20 to 30 will remain possible through the early evening
hours. Winds will remain breezy tonight and tomorrow with gusts
15 to 20 kts.


Outlook...

Late Tuesday night through through Thursday night...Occasional
restrictions with a couple waves of snow and/or rain.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJT
AVIATION...BTL