Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

558
FXUS61 KBGM 011051
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
651 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Overall little change to previous forecast. Small tweaks to the
QPF with some shifts in where the front may stall.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorm chances today and Tomorrow for most of
the area, and the far south for Thursday.

2) Risks for locally heavy rainfall and potential flooding
increases Wednesday into Thursday morning.

3) A cooler pattern with drier Northwest flow returns late week
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The next few days will be active for thunderstorms, especially
Southwest of a line from Syracuse down to the Catskills. That is
where many of the models have the warm front stalling so along
and north of the front, more stable air will lower the severe
risk but increase the heavy rain threat. Early this morning,
water vapor imagery is showing an initial shortwave passing
through leading to some rain showers. This has been well
depicted in the models and helps lead so some uncertainty with
storm chances this afternoon around peak heating when the severe
ingredients are in place. Many of the models do not have a
shortwave passage this afternoon and water vapor imagery does
not show anything of note upstream for a ways. Even though we
may see between 2000 and 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30 to 40 knots
of bulk shear this afternoon, we may not have a trigger to
develop the deep convection. Still plenty of CAMs have some
precipitation developing with a speckling of 40 dbz cores in the
HREF. The front that is near by may be enough to get some
initial convection near it and outflow boundaries are able to be
the needed trigger for storms.

If storms do develop today, the large cape and dry air aloft
will predominantly have a hail and wet microburst threat. There
is a little bit of curvature in the forecast hodographs for this
afternoon as well so an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out,
especially closer to where the warm front is stalled.

Tomorrow is another difficult day to pin down as a marine layer
is trying to push in from the west that could help at least
stabilize the boundary layer. The more stable air is likely east
of I-81 but farther west, it does look like there will be
enough sun to become unstable. Along the edge of this marine
layer will need to be watched closely as there will be enhanced
environmental helicity. Any storms with supercell
characteristics that form in the afternoon and cross from the
unstable air into the marine layer may briefly pose a tornado
risk. Shear tomorrow is also looking better today with most
models showing 50 to 55 knots of Bulk Shear. More clouds may
limit the overall CAPE to around 1000 to 1500 west of I-81 but
that is still plenty to see organized convection. The timing of
a subtle shortwave also looks better for storms to fire in the
afternoon around or just after peak heating so if the stable
marine layer does not push west through the entire region in the
morning, there is higher confidence in more widespread severe
Wednesday.

Thursday is not quite out of the woods yet for severe
thunderstorms as low level moisture remains in place for part of
the day with shear still in place. It is uncertain if dry air
slowly advecting in will erode away at the instability prior to
reaching the convective temperature in the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

With a stalled front and high precipitable water values
tomorrow into Thursday morning of around 2 inches, heavy rain
and flash flooding is a concern. Now that more of the CAMs are
within range, the HREF`s probability matched mean which helps
show some reasonable worst case scenarios does highlight an area
from CNY down into the Catskills/southern Hudson River Valley
where a strip of 2 to 3 inches of rain could fall in 12 hours. A
low level jet feeding into the front Wendesday night into
Thursday morning will help feed training storms if the front
remains stalled all night so pockets of 3+ inches is expected.
Flash flooding is likely where the front ends up stalling with
potential for isolated significant flash flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

For Friday into early next week, the large ridge in the central
US retrogrades west with the trough in the northeast nudging
into the mid Atlantic. This will help the flow become more
northerly with cooler and drier air advecting in. Depending on
how cool the 850 mb temperatures are, there could be some lake
effect rain showers to deal with but for the most part the
weekend into early next week is looking mostly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers are moving across much of CNY this morning,
with a few isolated thunderstorms developing. A mix of
restrictions are across the region, with LIFR restrictions due
to fog and rain at ELM/SYR/BGM that should last into the mid
morning hours. MVFR ceilings will remain at all terminals into
the afternoon before scattering out at AVP/BGM/ELM/ITH by early
afternoon. SYR and RME are forecast to remain mostly cloudy
today with persistent MVFR ceilings.

The clearing across the Southern Tier into NEPA will allow for a
chance of scattered thunderstorms to develop. AVP and BGM look
to have the best chance for thunderstorms, but confidence is
only moderate as timing and location of the storms remains
uncertain. Prob30 groups were included in these TAFs for
thunderstorms. ELM will have enough instability present but may
be too influenced by high pressure which would limit storm
potential.

A marine layer will work its way into the area after 00z, which
could bring IFR ceilings to AVP and BGM. Fog could develop again
for ELM/ITH/RME with IFR restrictions possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Periods of showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions, especially each
afternoon/evening.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of early AM fog each
day.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/JAB
AVIATION...JTC