Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

454
FXUS61 KBGM 302358
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
758 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence continues to increase that Tuesday-Wednesday may be quite
active for thunderstorm activity, and perhaps into Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Weak waves of scattered showers, and perhaps isolated embedded
thunder at times, are expected through Monday night.

2) An active pattern of warm and humid conditions is anticipated
Tuesday through at least Wednesday, with potential batches of strong
to severe thunderstorms. This could linger into Thursday for parts
of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Increased cloud cover has occurred from forced ascent in the right
entrance region to the south of an upper jet, as a stronger wave
swings through Quebec en route to New England. The west-northest
flow aloft itself contains additional weak waves, yet there is also
surface high pressure. So while there are attempted scattered
showers, initial ones have had to battle a lot of dry air in the
boundary layer. As the surface high shifts to our east, a light
return flow and pooling moisture within a developing frontal zone
will generate waves of scattered light showers tonight into Monday
morning. This will squeeze more towards the western Twin Tiers to
Wyoming Valley PA tonight-early Monday as high pressure gets a
temporary hold over Central NY-Catskills, but that zone will then
drift across the rest of the region Monday afternoon.

Any rain through Monday morning will be scattered and of little
consequence. While that will remain mostly the case Monday afternoon
through night, there will be more caveats. The developing frontal
zone will see pooling moisture with precipitable water values
reaching between 1.75-2.00 inches. Also, small amounts of
instability aloft could result in isolated non-severe embedded
thunder and thus more enhanced rates but that will be the exception
not the rule. Most of the area will be just fine with a mostly
cloudy seasonal day wand highs in the 70s to near 80 for the last
day of August, with average rain amounts of only around a tenth of
an inch or less. However, with the atmospheric profile trending more
moist-adiabatic Monday afternoon through night, a narrow stripe or
two of locally heavier rain cannot be totally ruled out if heavier
showers can train over the same area. Meanwhile, there will be
enough moisture around for typical areas of fog where breaks in
clouds occur tonight-early Monday morning or Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A ring-of-fire scenario is appearing to take shape for Tuesday
through Wednesday, and perhaps into Thursday for at least part of
the area. That is a setup when there is a hot dome located to our
southwest, with a belt of westerlies over the top of the dome,
sending potential multiple waves of strong convection dropping
through our region. The Storm Prediction Center continues to
highlight Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms/15 percent chance
within 25 miles of a point for at least portions of our area Tuesday-
Wednesday, and pressing south Thursday yet still possibly
encroaching Northeast PA.

Warm and humid conditions at the surface will be coupled
with brisk flow aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates as any
waves pass. Though the details have yet to shake out, convective
parameters are favorable for there to be passing batches of strong
to severe thunderstorms in our region, especially when and if waves
coincide with peak diurnal heating each afternoon-evening.
Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) probabilities have
trended to 60-80 percent change of exceeding 1500 J/Kg for Tuesday
afternoon and still 50-60 percent by Wednesday, especially west of I-
81. Top-heavy appearance of CAPE profiles in model soundings point
to a large hail and wet microburst potential, with significant speed
shear of 30-50 knots in the in 3-6km layer allowing for storm
organization. This setup could even linger into Thursday for
Northeast PA, though the primary belt of potential will be shifting
south in response to more pronounced upper troughing across the
northeast.

As with any setup that features multiple batches of storms in a warm
and humid environment, each passing wave will pose an increase risk
for excessive rainfall. Localized flash flooding thus cannot be
ruled out through the midweek period, but details for where will not
be apparent until we see where the initial zones of heavier batches
of rain occur. As for the warmth, heat index values are likely to
peak around 90 degrees Tuesday-Wednesday at lower elevations; not
high enough for an Advisory but still very noticeable and perhaps
impactful for anyone spending long periods outdoors without keeping
up on hydration. Wyoming Valley PA could even push into lower-mid
90s for heat index both afternoons. That should trend a bit lower
by Thursday.

A broad upper trough pattern should lead to milder more seasonal
early September temperatures Friday onward, with limited moisture
and thus probably dry most of the time. National Blend of Models has
daily Probability of Precipitation peaking only in the 15-30 percent
range each day through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR ceilings and visibilities over central NY terminals will
gradually lower this evening as moisture increases over the
region. Conditions will continue to deteriorate through the
overnight as increased moisture and mid level pulses of energy
track southeast out of the Great Lakes. This will bring the
potential for fog and low stratus. Scattered showers will also
be possible tonight, with the greatest potential for showers
expected for the western and southern terminals. Conditions are
expected to drop to IFR for both CIGs & VSBYs for most of the
area, with lower cats possible in the more fog prone areas.

Monday, morning fog and low stratus will improve starting around
13/14Z, but CIGs are expected to remain at least at lower level
MVFR, possibly IFR at times through the day. VSBYs will improve in
the morning, but incoming showers/thunderstorms with localized
downpours will bring the potential for lowered flight conditions.
A few showers will be possible in the morning for the southern
terminals, with additional showers/storms later in the day for
most of the area. The afternoon showers/storms will have the
best potential for reductions to VSBYs.


Outlook...

Monday night through Thursday... Scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions, especially
each afternoon/evening.

Friday...VFR conditions expected with a few isolated showers
possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...ES/SJW