Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KBGM 161054
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
654 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall amounts for Sunday have trended down slightly more
than the previous update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers move into the area today and continue into Monday.

2) After a dry Tuesday through Wednesday morning, another round of
showers associated with a passing cold front is expected for
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Showers associated with a shortwave trough and weak sfc low tracking
across Pennsylvania will start to push into NE PA during the mid-
morning hours today. Showers will push further north into the rest
of the forecast area by the early afternoon hours as a warm front
tracks northeast. Showers will continue through tonight and into
Monday as another shortwave trough crosses the region during the
evening, followed by a weak cold front that will slowly track across
the area on Monday. An influx of moisture increasing PWat values up
to around 2.00 inches will provide the potential for heavier
showers. The heavier showers with the rain should stay mostly in PA
closer to the stronger portion of the two shortwave troughs. Showers
are expected to come to an end during the first half of the
overnight on Monday night. Forecast guidance continues with the
lower rainfall amounts, with amounts of around a tenth to quarter of
an inch is expected for NY zones, with amounts increasing to the
south toward three quarters of an inch in the southern portions of
the forecast area, including from Luzerne County to Pike County.
Thunderstorms should be limited through this evening with limited
instability.

Winds will increase over the area as the pressure gradient increases
over the region. Wind gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range will be
possible, especially over the higher terrain.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cold front associated with a sfc low near Hudson Bay will cross
the region on Wednesday evening. Ahead of the frontal boundary,
showers will move into the region late Wednesday morning and
afternoon, continuing into the evening on Wednesday. Afternoon
instability with daytime heating ahead of the front will allow for
some thunderstorms to develop on Wednesday afternoon as well.
Uncertainty still exists among guidance for how quickly the front
will track through the region, as some guidance still tries to bring
a sfc low northeast along the frontal boundary. This scenario will
both increase rainfall and duration of showers expected into
Thursday. Most guidance is fairly quick with passing front
otherwise.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through most of this morning. By the
late morning and especially this afternoon, ceilings are
expected to lower to MVFR/Fuel Alternate, along with rain
showers moving into the area. Thunder is possible as well, but
confidence is currently too low to include this in the TAFs.
Scattered rain showers continue through the evening with some
IFR conditions appearing as well. While most of the rain shower
activity begins to move to the east closer to 06Z, lingering
IFR ceiling restrictions are expected until the end of the TAF
period (at least until 12Z Monday).

Outlook...

Monday...MVFR-VFR. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms
possible with associated restrictions.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Some potential for
early morning fog, mainly at KELM.

Wednesday night...Scattered showers with associated restrictions
possible.

Thursday...Mainly VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJW
AVIATION...BJG