745
FXUS61 KBGM 022315
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
615 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter weather advisory issued for all of Northeast PA,
Catskills, Mohawk Valley and Central Southern Tier of NY Tuesday
into Tuesday night. This was issued for a coating to and inch of
snow, along with generally light glazes of ice.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and cold this evening into tonight with increasing
clouds.
2) A system will bring snow and a wintry mix to the region
Tuesday into Tuesday night, transitioning to rain for the valley
locations.
3) Spring-like conditions are expected for the remainder of the
week, weekend and into early next week with above normal
temperatures and multiple chances for rain showers. The
potential for ice jams and flooding will increase near the end
of the week and especially over the weekend into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Skies will stay clear for most of the night (through at least
midnight) leading to good radiational cooling. Clouds do
increase from SW to NE after midnight into the predawn hours.
Temperatures were lowered below most guidance and as a result,
lows are expected to be in the teens and low 20s. A few
locations across northern Oneida county will see single digits.
With light south winds overnight, wind chills will only be
slightly lower than temperatures. The high pressure will slide
out to sea tonight as the next system approaches from the south.
Cloud cover will begin to increase ahead of this system late
tonight. A few stray snow showers cannot be ruled out, but the
main wintry mix event will hold off until after sunrise Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
The aforementioned system will push in from the south Tuesday
morning. Precipitation will spread from south to north throughout
the morning and midday hours. This system will bring a wintry
mix to the region, though exact precipitation types remain
uncertain. It should start as light snow for most of the area,
except light freezing rain across Steuben county. Some sleet,
freezing rain and rain begin mixing in elsewhere by early
afternoon as temperatures aloft hover near 0C at 850mb. Surface
temperatures were lowered from the the NBM output, nudging
toward the colder 3km NAM solution as the cold wedge remains in
place and wet bulbing pushes temperatures down toward the colder
dew points. Most of the urban valley/lower elevation locations
will likely hover above freezing in the mid to perhaps upper 30s
Tuesday afternoon and evening with plain rain showers around.
However, the higher elevations of Steuben County, the Catskills
and Poconos look to hover in the lower 30s with pockets of
freezing rain continuing; the Mohawk Valley may also hold in the
lower 30s much of the time. This is where the best potential to
see another round of light icing will be heading into Tuesday
evening and night as we lose the influence of the stronger March
sun. Ice totals could be up to a tenth or two-tenths of an inch
for the higher elevations of the Catskills, with a light glaze
elsewhere (especially advisory locations). The precipitation
will end fairly quickly from NW to SE Tuesday night, with
conditions likely drying out before daybreak Wednesday areawide.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
It will begin to feel more like spring the rest of the week as
temperatures trend warmer and there are multiple chances for rain
showers. High pressure will build over the area on Wednesday,
bringing dry, partly sunny and mild weather with highs ranging
from the 40s north to mid-50s south.
Showers push back in from the south/southwest later Wednesday
night along a warm front. The rain could even mix with some
spotty freezing rain in the normally colder locations well
northeast of Binghamton, toward the Mohawk Valley and Southern
Tug Hill plateau, but uncertainty remains on if the showers will
track that far north.
The warm front will remain across the area on Thursday, with
increasing chances for showers, especially late in the day. A
wave of low pressure is progged to track along the stationary
warm front Thursday night, right across our forecast area,
bringing Categorical PoPs for rain and even a slight chance for
thunderstorms. The low will be sliding east on Friday, with
conditions dry out through the day, with even some partial
clearing in the afternoon...especially western areas. It will be
very warm along and west of I-81 with highs potentially reaching
the mid-50s to lower 60s here. Further east, it will be stuck a
bit cooler in the 40s to low 50s.
A surge of warm air moves in behind a warm front late in the
week, leading to temperatures well into the 60s for most
locations on Saturday. A cold front soon follows though and
looks to stall out, but exactly where remains uncertain. This
stalled front would support rain showers throughout most of the
weekend, with slightly cooler readings in the upper 50s to
mid-60s on Sunday. Remaining very warm right into early next
week, with highs likely staying in the 60s Monday, Tuesday and
perhaps even warmer next Wednesday.
As it has been discussed, we will need to monitor the rivers and
streams for any ice jams and minor flooding late this week and into
the weekend. The warm up will be gradual but adding rain to the
mixture will accelerate snowpack melting and lead to runoff.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions into the overnight hours with clear skies and
light variable winds.
The next weather system moves into the area in the morning,
bringing a mixed bag of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain
across the region. Conditions will worsen through the morning
with IFR visibility likely on the onset when precipitation type
is snow. As precip changes to rain, there will be some
improvements to visibility, however ceilings will be falling
through the day with IFR ceilings possible by the afternoon.
Outlook:
Tuesday night...Mostly MVFR restrictions expected with patchy
IFR ceilings. Rain moves out overnight, but at least MVFR/Fuel
Alt ceilings remain.
Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly Wednesday night and again
Thursday night there will be rainy periods likely, with a
chance for low ceilings, fog, and associated flight
restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
PAZ038-039-043-044-047.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 3 AM EST
Wednesday for PAZ040-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
NYZ022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST
Wednesday for NYZ037-046.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 3 AM EST
Wednesday for NYZ057-062.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BTL/MJM
AVIATION...JTC/MPK
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