Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

565
FXUS61 KBGM 111816
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
116 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Changed temperatures slightly tomorrow to cool them as models
wanted to warm temps mid afternoon but with precipitation and
clouds that is unlikely. Slight increase in snow at higher
elevations of the Catskills and Poconos tomorrow night into
Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Area of low pressure moves through tonight into Friday
bringing rain initially with a transition of snow late Thursday
into Friday.

2) Below average temperatures and on and off lake effect snow
showers this weekend into Monday.

3) Upper level ridging builds back in next week with
temperatures gradually warming back up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High clouds are moving in as an area of low pressure deepens in
the Southern Great Lakes region. Water vapor imagery shows a
healthy baroclinic leaf expanding across the Ohio River Valley
along with deep convection around the center of the low in
central Illinois could signify that the low is deepening a
little faster than models show. If it is , it likely wont affect
our forecast too much outside of some heavier rain tonight into
tomorrow. Cold air still lags behind the heavier precipitation
with 850 mb temperatures not falling to -2C to -3C until late
tomorrow afternoon into the early evening. That is when the
transition to snow would begin from higher elevations and
eventually to valley floors by Friday morning. There could be a
few higher elevated areas above 2000 feet in the Catskills that
see 4 or more inches of snow. If the cold air can filter in
faster or precipitation lingers longer, then higher
accumulations could occur at lower elevations and an advisory
may be needed but too much uncertainty on the west side of the
Catskills right now. Higher elevations of NEPA may also see some
locally higher amounts, especially in Wayne and Pike county
though the Wyoming Valley will see mostly rain and a brief
transition to some wet flakes before the precipitation ends.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Behind the departing low, 850 mb temperatures fall below -5C,
and with warm lakes, lake effect precipitation will likely form
and linger Friday into Saturday. Forecast soundings near the
lakes and at lower elevations like the I-90 corridor may be too
warm so a rain or rain snow mix is more likely. A brief period
of snow is possible overnight at lower elevations though
accumulations would be limited to elevated surfaces. In the
hills south of the Thruway and in the Tug Hill, above 1000 feet
or so, precipitation Friday into Saturday looks to be
predominantly snow. Given the early season and instability both
over the lake and warm ground, organized lake effect bands dont
look likely so widespread on and off showers are expected. This
will keep snow accumulations limited to a slushy half inch to
inch on mainly elevated surfaces. Roads may become briefly
covered if there is a heavy enough snow shower to pass through.
These snow showers will struggle to make it much south of the
Southern Tier.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The pattern Tuesday and onwards looks to take on the same
pattern that we have been seeing the last few weeks. Upper level
ridging with high pressure centered over the Southeast US
keeping off shore flow and preventing much moisture return.
Skies clear out with more sun but with the much shorter days and
low angle, it is going to be hard to get back up into the 60s
but could happen towards late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Conditions will be VFR through today and this evening, but will
deteriorate overnight into Thursday morning. Rain will move in
from the west late tonight and spread eastward after midnight.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities and eventually IFR conditions
Thursday morning will come with the rain.

Finally, there will also be a chance for some low level wind
shear as the rain pushes in for AVP as an area of stronger winds
aloft punch into NE PA. However, this area will likely exit the
region around sunrise tomorrow morning.


Outlook...

Thursday...Showers and associated restrictions possible.

Friday through Saturday...A mix of rain/snow showers possible
and associated restrictions.

Sunday...Perhaps a few lingering showers, otherwise mainly VFR
expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...BTL/MPK