Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

488
FXUS61 KBGM 191037
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
637 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes. Next system of interest is Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Fresher cooler air finishes up the weekend, and continues
into Monday.

2) Thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday as the next frontal
system pushes into the area, possibly lingering into Wednesday.
A few could be strong to severe.

3) Drier pattern expected later Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

In the wake of the severe weather event from Saturday, a fresh
significantly cooler air mass will advect over the region today. Air
Quality Alert remains for our NY Counties as issued by the NY
DEC, and there indeed may be a bit of smoke still hanging
around early. However, northwest winds at the surface, and
north-northwest winds at the top of the boundary layer, will at
least tend to bring in cleaner air than experienced on
Saturday. 850mb temperatures will actually slip below 50F/10C
degrees which is quite cool for this time of year, enough to
actually maintain a shallow cloud deck this morning, peeling
back away from Northeast PA late morning and then finally
scattering out for Central NY into early afternoon. Full
sunshine and fresh air with northwest gusts of 10-20 mph will
make for a gorgeous mid-to-late afternoon with highs mainly in
the 70s. This will lead to a mainly clear sky under high
pressure tonight with patchy fog formation aided by the wet
ground of recent rainfall, and chilly lows of upper 40s-mid 50s.
Sunshine continues Monday, with a light return flow on the back
side of the high getting temperatures into upper 70s-lower 80s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next front and trough approaches the area later in the day on
Tuesday into perhaps Wednesday. This will bring increasing
humidity and instability in the southerly flow ahead of the
incoming frontal system Tuesday. Dew points will rise back to
upper 60s-near 70 yet with high temperatures still managing
upper 70s-lower 80s. As with the system just experienced, an
anomalously deep parent surface low into the 990s mb range is
projected in Canada, with warm front/cold front tandem extending
from it into our area. Flow aloft will also be quite strong for
this time of year, pointing to potentially favorable shear for
storm organization. This will all depend on the timing of the
incoming front though, and any upwind mesoscale complexes which
could complicate things. The Storm Prediction Center has been
advertising a severe thunderstorm risk for portions of the
forecast area, so we will need to monitor the timing of features
closely for organized convection including potentially strong to
severe cells and locally heavy rainfall. The pace of the front
and trough in some models also is fairly slow, again pointing to
possible locally heavy rainfall and also that it could linger
into Wednesday at least for areas east of I-81.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Once the frontal exits the area by later Wednesday, a drier
pattern is figured for the rest of the week. Surface high
pressure will keep things generally dry, yet a broad low
amplitude trough aloft will hold temperatures to mild levels for
a few days with cooler nights, before moderating warmer late in
the week. Limited moisture even into Saturday suggests that
chances of rain will be quite low to start next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cloud deck this morning has not been as low as advertised,
with most areas VFR. Clouds should slowly dissipate as the
morning progresses, with clear skies in the afternoon.

Overnight, patchy fog will be possible under high pressure and
mostly clear skies. Currently, ELM has the best chance for IFR
restrictions, but ITH, RME and BGM could also see periods of
fog. Confidence is not high enough to include restrictions for
these terminals at this time.



Outlook:

Sunday night and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms
along with associated restrictions.

Thursday... Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...JTC