Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

226
FXUS61 KBGM 091051
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
651 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Model guidance is zeroing in on the start time of the rain on
Sunday, so made adjustments based on the latest data. Otherwise,
no significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) After a few isolated lake enhanced rain showers this morning
over Oneida County, it will become mostly sunny areawide. Dry,
mostly sunny and mild weather continues through the day on Saturday.

2) Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias will overspread the
area Sunday into Sunday night. Between a half inch to one inch of
rain is expected during this time for most locations.

3) Drier, but mostly cloudy weather is expected for Columbus Day,
with another chance for showers arriving by Tuesday. Dry and
slightly cool weather returns for the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cooler, broad cyclonic flow continues crossing the lower Great
Lakes early this morning. There is just enough moisture and lake
induced instability for a few isolated pop up showers to form this
morning across Oneida County in the west-northwest flow pattern.
Otherwise, the rest of the area should see sunny to mostly sunny
skies today along with slightly breezy winds, between 10-20 mph; a
few higher gusts to 25 mph will be possible near I-90, east to the
Mohawk Valley region. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, with
highs in the 60s areawide. Tonight features high pressure,
diminishing winds and cooler temperatures. There will be some valley
fog developing, and frost for the colder locations (in-active
growing season zones).

Saturday sees the surface high sliding east toward southern New
England and a high amplitude 500mb ridge moving overhead. This will
keep conditions dry, mainly sunny and warm, with a light south wind.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

We will see increasing clouds late Saturday night as the remnants of
Hurricane Isaias push north into the Tennessee Valley. The moisture
will stream well out ahead of the remnant center, reaching into west-
central PA by daybreak Sunday morning. With more clouds and a steady
southeast wind, it looks to stay milder in the mid-40s to low 50s
Saturday night.

The rain is expected to quickly overspread the area from southwest
to northeast during the day on Sunday. Model guidance has come into
better agreement on this timing, with the rain reaching Scranton--
Elmira and Hornell during the mid to late morning hours. Then,
reaching Penn Yan, Ithaca and Binghamton by early afternoon. The
rain eventually reaches Syracuse, Rome and Cooperstown by late
Sunday afternoon. There could of course still be some fluctuations to
this expected timing as this is still 3 days out in time. Rainfall
amounts are forecast to be mainly between 0.50 to 1.00 inches from
this system, as it will be fairly fast moving. The steady rain
tapers to showers Sunday night. Temperatures will be held down by
the clouds and showers, with highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s.
Generally light southeast winds between 6-15 mph are forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Some uncertainty still remains, but overall the NBM ensemble
guidance is keeping the area dry on Columbus Day, but with plenty of
lingering clouds around. Temperatures are forecast to be warm, in
the mid-60s to low 70s despite the clouds. The next fast moving
front will try to push in from the northwest, sometime on or around
Tuesday next week. With southwest winds out ahead of the front the
latest guidance is showing rather warm temperatures in the mid-60s
to low 70s once again. Early indications are that high pressure and
dry weather return for the area Wednesday and next Thursday with
seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period, but
there is some lingering fog at RME this morning that could
persist for another hour.

Mostly sunny skies expected today with the main concern being
gusty west to northwest winds this afternoon around 20 knots.

Fog will be possible again tonight with highest confidence for
restrictions at KELM.


Outlook...

Saturday through Saturday night...Mainly VFR with valley fog
possible in the morning hours at ELM.

Sunday through Monday...Showers with associated restrictions
likely.

Tuesday...Restrictions possible as another low pressure system
looks to approach the region with showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...MPK