Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

713
FXUS61 KBGM 300624
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
224 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

There remains fairly dry air in the low levels across the
region, so limited PoPs during the day to only a slight chance
of showers with increasing chances for rain overnight into
Tuesday.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Staying mainly dry and seasonably mild through this
afternoon.

2) Unsettled weather returns tonight and persists through much
of the and possibly into this weekend. Uncertainty in the
timing and placement of frontal boundaries will impact
temperature gradients and where the moderate to heavy rain
falls. Thunderstorms and locally heavy rain will need to be
monitored through the week, as this will bring the potential
for flash flooding and possibly some minor river flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Today should remain mostly dry, with some morning sunshine
followed by increasing afternoon clouds. Temperatures will be
warm, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. A weak shortwave
moves overhead later this afternoon and this could produce a
few scattered showers or sprinkles. A frontal system will edge
closer to the region tonight and more widespread rain showers
will be possible overnight into Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An active weather pattern is expected over the next week. Deep
southwesterly flow will bring Gulf of America moisture northward
into the Northeast U.S. A near stationary or slow moving frontal
system will start sagging southward out of Canada overnight
Monday and Tuesday. This will bring the first period of light
to moderate rain showers tonight.

For Tuesday, PWATs will continue to increase to 2+ standard
deviations above normal for this time of year. Most of our area
will be well into the warm sector south of the front on
Tuesday. Model soundings show abundant moisture, are showing
those PWATs in the 1.0 - 1.3 range). Mid level lapse rates are
expected to increase over 7C/km by Tuesday afternoon and
evening, however the lower levels will likely remain stable, so
MUCAPE values only get to about 500 J/kg due to the stable low
levels. SPC does have the western half of our area under a
Marginal Risk; but this will be highly dependent on seeing any
clearing and daytime heating, because otherwise there will not
be enough instability. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Day 3
(Tues- Weds) suggests a Marginal risk of heavy rain generally
along and north of the NY Southern Tier, where rainfall rates
could exceed the very low flash flood guidance (anything more
than 1-2 inches in a 6 hour period could start to cause issues).

The main concern will be long duration moderate to heavy
rainfall rates as the stationary front slowly walks across the
area Tuesday through Wednesday. Models show the front barely
making it into southern PA or the northern Mid- Atlantic by
Wednesday evening before it lifts back north a warm front on
Thursday. This will bring another round of rain and showers to
the area through Thursday night...with yet more rain potential
on Friday as the center of the low and eventual cold front press
through the area. The latest guidance continues to show the
cold front stalling out as it approaches the Mid- Atlantic
states due to a strong Bermuda High off the coast. This will
open the door for a third system to bring more rain over the
coming weekend. Behind this weekend system, a stronger front
will should clear out the moisture for a while by the end of the
weekend.

There are a lot of variables associated with each of these systems,
however the simple fact that each system may stack more and more
water across our increasingly sensitive watersheds lends careful
watching.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminal sites through at
least 12Z tomorrow. LLWS will continue for a few terminals until
around 12Z when the winds at the surface pick back up with day
time heating beginning. A warm front is lifting in tomorrow
afternoon so cigs will likely be slowly falling all day,
becoming MVFR between 22Z and 00Z. Some rain is possible but
confidence is too low to add into this TAF package.

Outlook:

Monday late afternoon through Thursday...a chance of rain
showers and associated occasional restrictions possible.
Thunder possible each afternoon starting Tuesday afternoon.

Friday...Scattered rain showers and associated occasional
restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...KL