Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

526
FXUS61 KBGM 031822
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
222 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cancelling Flood Watch early. Otherwise, minor adjustments to
previous forecast through Saturday for frontal positioning and
chances of more showers along the SW flank of our forecast area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Timing and placement of frontal boundary to our south along
with minor impulses still passing through flow aloft today and
Friday.

2) Quiet weather with lower humidity and seasonal temperatures
through the Labor Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Lingering rain and embedded thunderstorms will continue to
dissipate and move south behind a departing upper wave this
morning. High pressure and slightly drier air will attempt to
work in from the northeast this afternoon partially clearing out
much of the region although heating and abundant ground based
moisture will allow for destructive cumulus. Another impulse in
the persistent northwesterly flow is likely to trigger
additional showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and
tonight mainly along the western Finger Lakes, Southern Tier and
Northeast Pennsylvania. Severe parameters set up best to the
southwest of the CWA but can`t completely rule strong storms out
with a SPC Marginal clipping our area.

Friday should turn out the quietest day of this week however
model guidance still suggests another upper wave skirting the
area over WNY and north central PA during the afternoon and
evening. Will therefore still have to carry some chance of
showers and thunderstorms again along the Southern Tier and
portions of NEPA mainly west of I-81. Best instability and
shear look to be south of the region tomorrow so severe storms
are not expected.

Temperatures will be a little tricky again today with morning
clouds holding on, but then any sun breaking free this afternoon
should cause quick rebounds. I`ll stick with the blended NBM
for now with upper 70s-lower 80s expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A closed upper low will drop south into the Maritimes this
weekend with a broad area of surface high pressure building down
from Canada. This pattern will be favorable for drier conditions
and near seasonal temperatures in the 70s during the day and
50s/low 60s at night. This quiet weather should last through
Monday with a slow rebound of warmer, more humid conditions
during the middle of next week as high pressure settles over the
southeastern States and re-establishes southerly flow into the
region. Next better chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
during this midweek time frame given the increasing instability
interacting with passing upper waves.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR ceilings are expected to be in place through the
rest of the afternoon and early evening. Clouds streaming over
the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier are occasionally leading to
periods of MVFR restrictions and that will likely be the case
through the next few hours. As a weak frontal boundary continues
gradually dropping south, isolated showers or thunderstorms are
possible, mainly from ITH on south, with the greatest chance
being around AVP, which continues to have a PROB30 group into
the early evening. If anything looks to reach ITH, ELM or BGM,
this will be handled by amendments. A complex of thunderstorms
across Lower Michigan is also being shown by most CAMs to move
across NE PA late this evening and into the overnight, and clip
AVP, so an additional PROB30 group has been added for this
feature.

It also appears that we`ll have some areas of low clouds and
fog to contend with as well overnight with moist low-levels from
recent rainfall and light to calm winds.

After any early morning low clouds and fog, VFR conditions are
expected for the rest of the TAF period. There is the chance for
additional isolated to scattered showers/storms tomorrow
afternoon after 18Z, mainly across NE PA.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon...Mainly VFR; isolated showers or
thunderstorms around AVP.

Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; areas of low clouds and
fog possible early each day.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAB
AVIATION...DK