Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

978
FXUS61 KBGM 092343
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
743 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The remnants of Isaias will spread rain across the area
Sunday into Sunday night. Between a half to one inch of rain is
expected during this time for most locations. No significant
impacts are expected at this time.

3) Weather conditions on Columbus Day are expected to be dry and
quiet before additional chances for showers Tuesday into early
Wednesday. Dry and seasonably cool weather returns for the
latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Quiet weather today and Saturday will turn more active on Sunday
as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias lift north across the spine
of the Appalachian Mtns and along the East Coast. This tropical
system will quickly transition to extra-tropical and become
baroclinic as it moves north through AL/MS/GA. This system will
become absorbed within the large scale synoptic flow later on
Saturday and lift to the northeast Sat night into Sun morning.

Model guidance/ensemble member consensus is now in very good
agreement about bringing in the onset of rain from the south/sw
to our forecast area around 5-7 AM Sunday morning...and
spreading to the north/ne through the rest of the morning hours.
PW values will reach into the 1-1.5 inch range in our area, with
values greater than 1.5 staying along the coast and east of the
I-95 corridor. This system will become fairly fast-moving as
well, which will limit the threat of heavy rain on Sunday.

Model soundings are indicating a layer of potentially unstable
air above a very strong inversion around 4-5 kft. This mid level
instability is relatively shallow and while we cannot completely
rule out the threat for a few thunderstorms and resulting locally
heavier downpours, confidence is on the low side for this to
occur. So, the latest thinking is for a widespread 0.5 to 1
inch of rain from Sunday morning to Monday morning. This amount
of rain over this time period should be manageable and not cause
any impacts in our area.

Winds should remain sustained around 20 mph or less with some
ridgetop gusts up to 30 mph possible in the Poconos and
Catskills.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There may be some lingering lake enhanced rain showers streaming
in from the north/nw Monday morning, but the overall trend
through the rest of the day should be to dry conditions out.
Weak high pressure builds in on Monday night before more rain
arrives later in the week.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to the
timing of the next short wave and associated rain. Some of the
earliest guidance has rain moving in late Monday night and Tue
morning, while later solutions have rain entering the region
from the west/nw on Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts will
likely range from a tenth of an inch, up to a half inch before
ending Wed morning. Another ridge builds in Wed and Thu prior to
another round of rain lat Thu into Friday followed by what looks
to be some of the coldest air of the season so far. We`ll have
to see how the guidance trends with this incoming deep/cold
trough next weekend, but it is something to keep an eye on
through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Generally quiet conditions are anticipated through 00Z, with a
few waves of high thin clouds at times above 12000 kft agl. The
caveat, as is typical this time of year with a mainly clear sky
before the leaves are down, will be a potential period of
valley fog at KELM 09Z-13Z. TAF features at least fluctuations
with restrictive fog during that window, but there is a bit of
uncertainty for how predominant it will be given how dry it was
this afternoon; also some high clouds will be drifting into the
area during the early morning. Winds variable overnight, then
light east or southeast Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday and Sunday night...Rain with restrictive conditions/low
ceilings. A period of low level wind shear possible.

Monday and Monday night...Generally VFR conditions with weak
high pressure building in.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions possible as
another low pressure system approaches the region with showers.

Wednesday...High pressure building in should result in mostly
VFR conditions with the exception of valley fog at ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJT
AVIATION...MDP