Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

100
FXUS61 KBGM 060042
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
842 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marginal risk of thunderstorms in Central New York to Finger
Lakes this afternoon-early evening, was expanded to include into
the Twin Tiers.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon through early evening from Central New York to the
Twin Tiers. A few may contain damaging wind gusts.

2) With a rainy cold front slipping through the region Wednesday,
cooler weather will prevail for the next several days. This
could include patchy frost early Friday morning.

3) Disturbances will continue to pivot over our region this
weekend into early next week, around a cold upper low in
Canada. This will keep our weather cool and unsettled with
occasional showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Warm and windy conditions continue this afternoon ahead of a
cold front entering the region, with 70s to near 80 degree
temperatures yet dewpoints only in the upper 40s-lower 50s. The
wide dewpoint depressions will factor into the limited coverage
of thunderstorms this afternoon, yet also point to the potential
of strong gusty winds mixing down. Even in the absence of
storms, wind gusts will frequently reach the 30s mph range, and
so if a heavy convective cores can get established it would not
take much to mix down damaging gusts beyond 40 mph. The Storm
Prediction Center expanded the Marginal Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms to not just Central New York-Finger Lakes but also
into the Twin Tiers. The thunderstorm potential should quickly
drop off tonight with the loss of daytime heating, and thus the
severe potential likewise is much lower in the Wyoming Valley to
Poconos where it will take deeper into the evening for any
activity to reach. The air is also drier in those areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Despite the pre-frontal clusters of storms, more of the rain
will occur along and behind the front as we go into Wednesday.
Highs will be early in the day especially in the Finger Lakes,
as the front gradually slips through the region. A pretty raw
morning is anticipated with cooling temperatures and steady
rain. While embedded thunder cannot totally be ruled out east of
I-81, it is doubtful. All told we are anticipating rainfall
totals of half inch to inch for most of the region, which
including the initial batch of storms this afternoon-evening,
may push parts of Central New York past an inch. That said, the
rain will be spread out enough for flooding to not be a problem,
though there will be the more typical standing water and mud in
the poor drainage spots. The already elevated water levels of
area lakes and rivers will remain so.

There should be enough mixing and/or waves of cloud cover
Wednesday night to limit frost potential. However, we will be on
the edge of a surface high Thursday night. If enough clearing
occurs, patchy frost may be an issue in areas where the growing
season has begun.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
A large upper low will be centered over Eastern Canada late this
week through early next week. In addition to keeping a feed
going for cooler-than-normal temperatures over our region,
multiple disturbances will also pivot around the low for chilly
and unsettled weather. Though it will be dry much of the time,
intermittent waves of showers can be expected during the Friday
through Monday time period. In the latest model guidance, Saturday
daytime, and Sunday afternoon-evening, appear to be the more
likely windows for showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR ceilings will quickly fall to MVFR/IFR this evening.
Showers moving from southwest to northeast will continue to
spread into the region overnight, maintaining these restrictions
across all central NY terminals. AVP is expected to remain VFR
tonight, with restrictions arriving tomorrow morning as showers
move in. Winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming
gusty tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots at select
sites.

Outlook:

Wednesday afternoon-early evening...Rain showers ending but
ceiling restrictions will linger; then gradual improvement evening.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Mainly VFR, though
valley fog possible in pre-dawn hours each morning at KELM.

Friday night through Sunday...Cool and unsettled period with
intermittent chances for showers and restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...ES