Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

962
FXUS61 KBGM 311103
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
703 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted rainfall chances through the morning as the warm front
lifting in is a little slower so rain will take its time to get
here. Rainfall mid week is looking better so increased forecast
rainfall Tuesday night into Wendesday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A warm front is moving into the region today, with rain
showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Tuesday and Wednesday have a better chance of stronger
thunderstorms and heavy rain fall.

2) A cooler pattern with drier Northwest flow returns late week
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A large ridge of high pressure across the South Central US is
building today with a warm front that is lifting into the
Northeast. This front will likely stall in NY down into the Mid
Atlantic setting us up to be in the "ring of fire" around the
large ridge. Today will have some shear between 35 and 40 knots,
though thick cloud cover and frequent rain showers keeps CAPE
values low (<300) and elevated so while a few rumbles of thunder
is possible, severe weather is unlikely today. 850 mb flow into
the warm front does pose a heavy rain threat today and tonight.
Training storms are possible, especially north around I-90,
where the warm front stalls. PWAT values over 1.5 inches would
support higher rainfall rates.

For Tuesday and Wednesday (potentially into Thursday), the set
up is better for stronger, more organized storms. With the front
stalled around or north of the Thruway, there will be more sun
to allow for better heating leading to more surface based CAPE.
Tuesday looks to be the warmer day, with ensemble probabilities
now near 70% for >1500 J/kg of CAPE along with around 40 knots
of shear. One of the things working against Tuesday is the lack
of a trigger for storms during the day but even if storms occur
early or after dark, there is potential for large hail and wet
microburst.

Wednesday has a stronger shortwave passing through. More
moisture aloft will likely mean more clouds so that will limit
heating and overall CAPE development. Still somewhere between
800 and 1500 J/kg is looking likely. Shear will be stronger,
hovering around 50 knots and with the shortwave passing through,
a trigger is present to get storms going even without a whole
lot of CAPE. One thing that has changed in many of the models
from last night is the thermodynamic profile in the lower
atmosphere. Many of the models have a back door cold
front/marine layer sneaking in with warm moist flow lifting over
the stable layer leading to high elevated CAPE. The stable
airmass will lower the wind and microburst threat but keep a
hail threat for any isolated storms. The forcing in place leads
me to believe that storms will grow upscale quickly once they
get going in the afternoon/evening with a greater flash flood
threat looking more likely. The warm front will still be stalled
and could be a focal point for training storms. PWATs near 2
inches and a strong (~40 to 50 knot) low level jet forming in
the evening on Wednesday feeding persistent, training storms
could lead to significant flash flooding where they end up
training. Potential for 4 to 6 inches in less than 12 hours is
possible where the warm front ends up stalling. With low level
moisture remaining in place Thursday with more sun, instability
develops again with high shear once again though the lack of a
trigger may keep storms from developing but could have another
day with a hail and wet microburst threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

For Friday into the weekend, The large ridge in the central US
retrogrades west with the trough in the northeast nudging into
the mid Atlantic. This will help the flow become more northerly
with cooler and drier air advecting in. Depending on how cool
the 850 mb temperatures are, there could be some lake effect
rain showers to deal with but for the most part the weekend is
looking mostly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A mix of MVFR and VFR restrictions this morning as much of the
fog that guidance suggested would occur held off due to lack of
rain and cloud cover. Scattered rain showers will start to move
in from the NW by mid morning, with MVFR restrictions. IFR
restrictions will move in at BGM and ITH with the heavier
showers starting in the late morning hours. ITH should return
to MVFR by the late afternoon, but BGM should hold onto the
restrictions. Scattered showers are expected to remain across
the area into the overnight hours. IFR restrictions will be
possible but confidence in them occurring is too low to include
in this TAF set.


Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible with associated restrictions, especially each
afternoon/evening.

Friday...VFR conditions expected with a few isolated showers
possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MDP
AVIATION...JTC