Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

664
FXUS61 KBGM 120431
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1231 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted precipitation chances for this afternoon as it looks
like rain should move in a little later than some guidance
suggested. The rest of the forecast remains unchanged.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Active weather continues through the end of the work week, with
showers forecast Wednesday night and Friday.

2) High pressure systems will bring cooler temperatures for the
weekend and into next week. A quick moving low pressure system
could bring showers and storms to the area on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The overall pattern remains mostly the same, with a ridge over
the central US and a trough over eastern Canada. This will allow
for quick hitting shortwaves and surface highs to push through
the area through the rest of the week. The first high will be
over the area today, keeping us dry with temperatures near
normal for this time of year. The first shortwave will move in
during the late afternoon hours from the Great Lakes, bringing
scattered rain showers into the overnight hours. With the
arrival of this shortwave occurring after peak heating, there
isn`t much surface instability available, but model soundings
are showing some elevated instability so a few thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out, especially in the evening hours. Behind
this shortwave, another surface high will build in from the
Great Lakes, keeping conditions dry and temps seasonable on
Thursday.

Model guidance differs a bit for Friday with the timing and
placement of another stronger shortwave that is forecast to move
through the NE US. Precip placement will depend on how far south the
ridge will allow the trough axis to dig. This shortwave should
develop a surface low that will drag a cold front through the
region. Much cooler air is expected to filter in from Canada, with
Friday night lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.



KEY MESSAGE 2...

Saturday looks to be gorgeous as high pressure remains overhead.
Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 70s with dewpoints
in the low to mid 50s. The high will propagate eastward
Saturday night into Sunday as a low pressures system barrels
through the Great Lakes from the north central US. Scattered
rain showers and storms are expected Sunday. If the track of the
low is to our north, we will be in the warm sector and could
see a ribbon of high instability build into the area from the SW
before the low drags a cold front through the area. 0-6km bulk
shear from the low and stronger mid to upper level winds from
the jet overhead could provide storm organization and, combined
with the instability, produce severe storms. Confidence in this
is low at the moment given the track of the low is still
uncertain and severe weather will be dependent on the low taking
a particular track. Either way, we will be monitoring how this
system develops.

Behind the low, a strong high pressure system will build in from the
west. This will bring NNW flow that will push Canadian air into the
region and keep temperatures slightly below normal and keep us dry
into mid-week.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
During the overnight hours winds will become calm at most
terminals as weak high pressure moves in. While model guidance
is not very bullish on the idea of fog for ELM tonight,
conditions are set up well enough for it to form. There is a
slight chance of patchy fog around ITH and BGM early tomorrow
morning, therefore a tempo group was added to both sites.
Multiple showers trained over AVP this evening, increasing the
potential for fog to develop there as well. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may return after 18Z tomorrow, but given low
confidence in timing and exact location, they were left out of
the TAFs for now.


Outlook:

Wednesday through Thursday...Unsettled pattern with periods of
showers and scattered thunderstorms with associated
restrictions, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
Restrictions with overnight and early morning fog/low clouds
are also possible.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR; low chance for a shower or
storm Friday.

Sunday...Increasing chances for showers/storms later in the day
and into Sunday night.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...DK/ES