Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

502
FXUS61 KBGM 261110
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
610 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Precipitation chances for the light lake effect snow across north-
central NY were extended through the morning hours and ending around
midday. Any adjustments to the expected additional snowfall was
minor.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light lake effect snow will continue this morning across north-
central NY with additional accumulations expected.

2) Conditions will then be mainly dry into the start of the weekend
as temperatures trend warmer.

3) A cold front then moves through Saturday night as temperatures
fall below normal. The pattern remains active through the first half
of the week as temperatures will become mild again by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

West-northwesterly flow combined with 850mb temps around -14 deg C
will keep the current light lake effect snow showers going through
at least the morning hours. Snow showers will be mainly limited to
areas north of the Twin Tiers with some steadier bands dropping into
the NYS Thruway Corridor at times. While snowfall rates are expected
to only be 1/2 inch per hour or less, visibilities may reduced to
around 2 miles for brief moments. Flow becomes southwesterly by
around midday which should cut off any lingering snow showers.
Additional snowfall totals will be a 0.5 to 2 inches for most areas
that see snow. There is potential for localized totals around 3
inches for ares in northern Onondaga County. Temperatures will be a
bit cooler today, falling back into the 20s to mid 30s. Some valley
locations in NEPA and Catskills regions will be closer to 40.
Nightly temperatures will be back into the teens with some single
digits in the Tug Hill Plateau. However, with skies clearing out,
there is potential that other areas fall into the single digits.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will stay in place through the start of the weekend.
Southwesterly flow will begin to advect warmer air into the region
and under sunny skies, at least for Friday, temperatures climb into
the 40s. For some, 50s will be reachable Saturday, though it will
depend on cloud cover. Guidance is showing a weak cold front moving
into the region early Saturday but dries out as it hits the dry air
already in place. Solutions such as the GFS over the last few runs
show precipitation moving well into the region before drying out.
Other solutions such as the NAM and ECMWF remain much drier. For
now, this forecast update favors the NBM which keeps conditions dry.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

With the pattern remaining active, there will be many systems to
monitor. Meteorological spring on track to start more wintry than
spring-like with chances for snow into next week.

A stronger cold front will move through Saturday night and Sunday
morning. With temperatures falling below freezing prior to the front
moving through, precipitation associated with this front will be
mainly snow. Light accumulating snowfall is expected and while this
system is just outside of the window for a first guess of snowfall
totals, NBM probabilities are only at 10 to 20% for more than
advisory-level amounts (3" for PA, 4" for NY). With the expected
timing of this front, temperatures will warm up very little if any
during the day on Sunday. The forecasted highs will likely be
observed early for most of the region. Winds will be gusty along the
front with wind chills dropping into the single digits and teens.

Another system is not too far behind as one will slide across the
Ohio River Valley Sunday night. Guidance is mixed on whether or not
this system will stay south of the region or bring snow showers up
into NEPA and the Catskills, so a low chance for precipitation is
currently forecasted. With the region being on the cold side of this
system, precipitation would be just snow. High pressure then returns
with warm, dry conditions through at least Tuesday. The next system
moves in Tuesday night or early Wednesday, but there remains quite a
bit of uncertainty with the set up and track of this system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers and clouds will continue to bring
restrictions to RME, SYR, and ITH for at least the next 3 to 4
hours. Restrictions will be Fuel Alt to MVFR. Brief IFR cannot
be ruled out as observed by RME but confidence is low that there
will be IFR visibilities given how light the snow is. By
midday, snow showers should come to an end as flow becomes more
southwesterly over Lake Ontario. VFR is then expected for all
terminals through at least 12z Friday. West to northwest winds
will be 5 to 10 kts through most of the day. Then this evening,
winds become calm.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday Night and Sunday...Restrictions possible as a couple
of waves move through the region with snow showers.

Monday...Restrictions possible as another system approaches the
region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...BTL