Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

084
FXUS61 KBGM 102353
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
753 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted overnight lows lower tonight and tomorrow night with
the surface high building in closer with better chances of winds
calming after sunset.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold air mass moving in will linger through Tuesday, with
a threat of widespread frost tonight, and potential freeze
tomorrow night.

2) Another trough of low pressure moves in Wednesday into
Thursday, keeping the cooler weather around, but with rain and
clouds, temperatures will likely remain above freezing.

3) A pattern change late week into the weekend will allow for
warmer air to return to the Northeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold air mass is working its way into the region today, with
850 mb temperatures falling below freezing, to around 1C to 3C
below 0. Water vapor imagery is also showing dry air aloft,
with falling dew points this afternoon across western NY. As the
clouds continue to clear the rest of this afternoon, that drier
air will also mix down across CNY into the Twin Tiers. Southern
NEPA may hold on to clouds long enough that there would not be
enough solar heating to mix down the drier air. With the dew
points mixing down below 32, and a surface high nudging in from
the west helping the surface winds to diminish, efficient
radiational cooling will result in lows near freezing for much
of the area. Overnight lows were lowered from model guidance and
frost advisories may need to be expanded depending on how quick
the temperatures begin to fall this evening.

Tomorrow is similar to today, with a small chance at some
afternoon rain showers with instability generated by the strong
solar heating under the cold air aloft. Overnight lows will be
colder tomorrow night than tonight as high pressure will be
centered closer so radiational cooling will be more efficient.
Freeze warnings may be needed for tomorrow night as the upper
20s are possible in portions of the Catskills into the Twin
Tiers.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Brief ridging builds in Tuesday into Wednesday with flow aloft
becoming Southwesterly, bringing in warmer air ahead of another
trough digging into the Great Lakes region. This trough will
have more moisture to work with, and it does not have much cold
air. With clouds and rain late Wednesday into Thursday,
temperatures will remain below average for this time of the year
but at least there is not going to be much of a threat for
frost or freezes. Even though there will be better moisture with
this trough, with PWATs between 0.5 and 0.8 inches, so rainfall
amounts will be less than a half inch for most of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Once this trough is through late week, 500 mb heights slowly
rise and 850 mb temperatures climb back towards 10C. Zonal flow
sets up aloft with southerly flow from the gulf through the
central US could mean the pattern will remain active with
frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms. At least day time
highs will be back near the 70s and lows in the upper 40s and
50s. Looking beyond this next weekend, there are hints that the
pattern could completely flip from the current pattern with
ensembles showing greater odds of Western US troughing and east
coast ridging.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for much of tonight at all TAF
sites. There is the potential for some shallow fog to form at
ELM early tomorrow morning, generally after 06Z-08Z through 12Z,
but confidence in this is low. NAM soundings show a moist,
shallow low-level inversion along with light winds. However,
this afternoon`s sunshine combined with the northerly wind and
drier air mass overhead would have allowed for much of the
surface moisture to evaporate, making it more difficult for fog
to form. Model guidance also shows the edge of some high clouds
overnight getting close to ELM adding to the uncertainty.

Clouds are expected to increase tomorrow afternoon and early
evening with isolated to scattered showers. Confidence on
location and timing was too low to add to any one terminal at
this time, but any showers are expected to be on the lighter
side, so restrictions are not expected at this time. West to
northwest winds increase for the afternoon with gusts of 15-20
knots.

Outlook:

Monday night through Tuesday evening...VFR, except shallow
valley fog again possible towards dawn Tuesday at KELM.

Late Tuesday night through Thursday...Showers likely with
associated restrictions as low pressure pivots into the region.

Thursday night and Friday: Slow lifting and clearing of
restrictions toward VFR. Timing still somewhat uncertain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     PAZ038-039.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     NYZ009-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...DK