Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

101
FXUS61 KBGM 012344
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
744 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly clear tonight with cold conditions. Warmer on Wednesday,
with morning sun giving way to increasing clouds and late day
rain showers, especially for Central NY. Temperatures see a
significant warm up on Thursday, with showers possible, mostly
during the morning. Mainly dry and seasonable weather returns
on Friday to end the work week before another system arrives
with widespread rain this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM update...

Clear skies this evening as high pressure builds in. There was
little change to the previous forecast besides lowering winds
overnight so more of the area is calm. Some clouds are beginning
to move in so watching that to see how it affects the
radiational cooling.

230 PM Update...

Gusty winds this afternoon will continue to decrease and become
calm later this evening as high pressure builds/ridging builds
in overhead. Clear skies and light winds tonight will make for a
chilly night with lows in low to mid-20s for most areas (with
some upper teens possible in the coldest locations of the
Catskills, and Northern Oneida county).

Wednesday starts off dry with increasing clouds through the day
as a warm front moves north into CNY/NE PA. It will be high
clouds with some filtered sunshine in the late morning hours,
with thicker clouds and some even some rain showers arriving by
late afternoon or early evening.

For fire weather concerns, please see fire weather discussion
below.

Dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will take
time to moisten up, and should slow the arrival time of the rain
down some. It will be about 10-15 degrees warmer tomorrow with
highs in the mid-40s to lower 50s. South- southeast winds
increase by late afternoon due to an increasing low level jet.
Gusts could easily reach 40 mph or higher across the Finger
Lakes Region around sunset, as 850mb winds reach 60-70 kts.
However, a strong low level inversion at 925 mb will limit wind
gust speeds. At this time, the best chance to hit wind advisory
criteria will be in the Finger Lakes for a few hours tomorrow
evening, but confidence is too low for an advisory as of now.
The low level inversion should be strong enough to limit gusts
to below 40 mph elsewhere and will remove counties outside the
Finger Lakes from the HWO, as only isolated high elevation
locations will have the potential to see gusts over 40 mph. The
low level jet peaks late Wednesday evening over the area and
winds will then decrease overnight into Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM Update...

Scattered showers will likely be ongoing Thursday morning. MU
CAPE values peak during the morning hours on Thursday with
shortwave pushing through. Some thunderstorms will be possible
from 12Z to 18Z, however, after this wave passes, expecting
shower and thunderstorm activity to significantly decrease
during the afternoon and evening. Lowered PoPs from previous
forecast and kept chance PoPs in there through Thursday
afternoon for now, but could see them even going lower if this
trend continues.

Thursday will be a much warmer day, with highs expected to
range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. A cold front looks to
get hung up across near or just south of NE PA Thursday night,
so a chance for showers will persist mainly from the NY/PA
border on south, but if this boundary sinks further south, then
the whole area will remain dry. Lows Thursday night range from
the low 40s to the north to the upper 40s to near 50 degrees
over portions of NE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM Update...

High pressure will settle over the region on Friday, with dry
conditions and temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Very little changes were made to the forecast for days 5-7.
Widespread, soaking rainfall is looking more and more likely
this weekend, with NBM forecasting near definite rain chances
through Saturday and High-end likely rain chances on Sunday.

Previous Discussion...

Beyond Friday, an unsettled pattern looks to set up for the
weekend and into early next week. A strong upper trough is
expected over the Western U.S. while a strong ridge of high
pressure develops off the Southeast coast Saturday. In between
these two features, multiple waves of low pressure will be
channeled from southwest to northeast toward our region, tapping
into plenty of Atlantic and Gulf moisture feeding north around
the upper ridge. This will lead to showery conditons both
Saturday and Sunday.

The upper trough is expected to slowly push eastward early next
week and break down the upper ridge. A stronger shortwave
trough and surface cold front is expected to drop down from the
north as well early next week and these two features would keep
the chances of showers around. Much cooler air looks to funnel
in from the northwest as well with 850mb temperatures being
progged as low as -12 to -15C by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at all terminals into tomorrow
afternoon. Rain showers move in from the west along a warm
front, bringing MVFR conditions for a few hours to BGM/ELM/ITH
late in the period. SYR and RME may see MVFR conditions, but
best chances here are just after the end of this TAF period and
confidence was not high enough to include it at the end of this
set.


Outlook...

Wednesday night...Rain showers and associated restrictions.

Thursday...Morning restrictions possible, should eventually
become mainly VFR by afternoon for most locations.

Friday...Mainly VFR expected.

Saturday...Periods of rain likely with associated restriction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday morning and early afternoon will see low RH values in
the 25-35% range for several hours before moisture increases
late in the day or early evening. South winds increase in the
afternoon between 10-20 mph with some higher gusts, especially
in the mid to late afternoon. Also, temperatures will be
warming up into the lower 50s for the lower elevations and
valleys. There should be a 4 to 5 hour window where RH and
winds get to near critical thresholds from about 1200 to
1600/1700 EDT. This will be dependent on incoming moisture in
the afternoon and this window may increase/decrease depending on
the exact timing of incoming moisture advection. At this time,
there is not enough confidence for an SPS for Leather Stocking
Fire Zone. Also, with rainfall likely moving into the region
tomorrow evening and tomorrow night, if any fires were to start,
it is likely that the conditions in the evening will quickly
suppress any activity.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...DK/MPK
LONG TERM...DK/MPK
AVIATION...JTC
FIRE WEATHER...