Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

123
FXUS61 KBGM 091016
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
616 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast this evening,
as it remains well on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures will trend warmer throughout much of the week,
leading to an extended period of warmer than normal temperatures.

2) Rain will return midweek with additional chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will move offshore leading to the development of a
south to southwest flow pattern. As a result, both temperatures
and the amount of the moisture will be on the increase. Modeled
boundary temperatures have highs getting into the 80`s for the
next couple of days with some readings into the 90`s Thursday
and Friday. Given the moisture increase as well, heat index
values have the potential to reach 95 in a few valley locations
with some values of 95-100 on Friday. This takes into the
account the warm bias of the NBM which continues to occur.

Temperatures look to fall off following a cold frontal passage
on Saturday with a potential secondary cold frontal passage
Sunday into Monday. This will gradually trend temperatures
cooler by the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A warm frontal boundary looks to pass through the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Enough lift and moisture look present for
the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Instability still looks a bit limited in this timeframe for
strong to severe thunderstorms. However, PW values of 1.5-2
inches will possibly result in locally heavy downpours from any
thunderstorms.

Wednesday night attention will turn to the potential for a MCS
to dive southeast into the region from the Great Lakes. Some
modeling has it decaying before it reaches our region. However,
mid level instability could increase quite a bit due to a
possible EML. 0-6KM bulk shear is looking more modest as well.

The atmosphere looks to become slightly capped during the day
Thursday with 700 mb modeled temperatures rising to around 11C.
This should keep the region mainly hot and dry after any
potential MCS or it`s leftovers move through.

Our next cold front has trended a bit stronger and more
progressive today. Enough lift and instability should be present
for more showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon and
night. Even the more conservative GFS shows a decent amount of
surface CAPE. Timing of the frontal boundary is still somewhat
uncertain, if it passes through overnight that would lower any
threat of strong to severe thunderstorms for our region. Another
cold front Sunday and Monday may lead to a few showers and
thunderstorms as well.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After any patchy morning clouds and fog dissipate, VFR
conditions are expected areawide through much of the period.
High pressure will shift east as a warm front approaches late
tonight, bringing increasing chances for MVFR restrictions
toward the end of the period. Winds will generally remain light,
mainly from the southwest at 10 kt or less.

Outlook:

Tuesday evening...VFR.

Tuesday night through Saturday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions, especially each
afternoon.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...ES