Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

282
FXUS61 KBGM 050512
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
112 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted dewpoints for Thursday and Friday; otherwise, no major
changes to the forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonably warm weather and mainly dry conditions expected today.
Increasing moisture and instability bring scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday.

2) Typical summer weather pattern expected for Sunday into
early next week, with a chances for showers or afternoon
storms possible every day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

As the Bermuda High strengthens and moves a little westward in
the Atlantic, this will prep the set-up for the rest of the
week`s weather pattern. Although mainly dry conditions are
expected today, a few weak shortwaves riding along the Bermuda
High could push up from the south, bringing chances for showers
and weak storms into southern areas of NE PA going into the
evening hours. For the daytime, high temperatures in the low to
upper 80s can be expected today, with partly to mostly cloudy
skies.

Heading into Thursday, a longwave trough draped over Canada will
slowly propagate eastward, allowing for small embedded
shortwaves to move into the area over the course of a few days
spanning from Thursday into the weekend. With this set-up, the
influence from the strengthened Bermuda High will allow for
increased moisture to be advected into the area, with PWATs
between 1.5 and 2.0 inches through the second half of the week,
as well as ample instability, especially for Friday, where
MLCAPE values rising into the 1500-2000 J/kg range for Thursday.
Although ample moisture and instability are forecasted to be
readily available on Thursday for storm development, two
ingredients may hinder the ability for severe storms to develop.
Shear is forecasted in the 20-30 knot range, and this pattern
lacks a strong forcing mechanism for the majority of the second
half of the week. There is one timeframe that we`re monitoring
the potential for severe weather, which would be Thursday
afternoon into evening. With moisture and instability present, a
more robust shortwave moves into the area Thursday afternoon,
which could be the forcing necessary to spark off some strong to
severe storms. Currently, a Marginal Risk for severe weather is
forecasted over our area from the Storm Prediction Center, with
the main threat being strong to damaging winds, as this pattern
lacks support for the risk of other severe threats.

Going into Friday, a slow-moving, quasi-stationary front
approaches, but is expected to weaken quite a bit as it comes
into the area. The weekend looks quite showery with chances for
afternoon storms as the trough in Canada deepens and propagates
eastward a bit more, continuing to push shortwaves into the
area. Temperatures and dewpoints increase through the second
half of the week, with heat indices increasing into the 90s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The longwave trough over Canada continues into early next week,
providing a semi-zonal flow pattern with some embedded
shortwaves that bring chances for scattered showers and
afternoon storms for a good portion of early next week. Warm and
humid weather is also expected to continue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Although conditions are somewhat supportive of valley fog, some
clouds moving in from the south may hinder fog development.
Confidence is increasing for minimal fog development at the
majority of terminals. For ELM, we increased the forecasted
conditions to MVFR fog, as increasing cloud cover introduces
uncertainty that IFR or lower conditions may occur. For now, a
TEMPO for MVFR visbys remain for ELM from 09z to 12z.

Outlook:

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Repeat showers and scattered
thunderstorms with VFR ceilings consistently at or below FL050
with intermittent worse cig/vsby restrictions associated with
rain/storms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...KL