Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

871
FXUS61 KBGM 160020
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
820 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little change to previous forecast. Added some thunder in for
the overnight hours with the warm front moving in.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strengthening low passes north of the region Friday into
Saturday with a strong frontal passage Friday night.

2) High pressure and southwest flow will lead to a gradual warm
up through next week after a chilly weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A deepening low over the central US will lift into the Great
Lakes tonight with a warm front moving into the Northeast.
Clouds will begin to increase tonight with a strong low level
jet developing. Stable air in the low levels will prevent most
of the winds from mixing down but downslope areas of the Finger
Lakes into the foot hills south of the NY Thruway may see some
gusts of 30 mph tonight. Showers and even a few thunderstorms
develop tonight as the warm front lifts in so some thunder was
added to the grids after Midnight.

The region will be in the warm sector of the low tomorrow.
Trends have brought the path of the low a little farther north
so odds of some clearing for the Southern Tier and southward has
increased. This has helped increase the potential for a little
bit of CAPE to develop (roughly between 200 and 400 J/kg). Given
shear is over 50 knots, and the cold front being a strong
trigger for storms, the potential for thunderstorms along the
front to produce strong winds have increased. SPC has moved a
slight risk into most of NEPA and parts of the Southern Tier.
Forecast hodographs do have some low level curvature ahead of
the front, so if there is enough sun to get better surface based
CAPE (>500 J/kg), a brief spin up is possible.

Precipitation transitions to lake effect rain showers once the
front goes through tomorrow evening. NEPA will dry out quickly
behind the front as the lake effect rain showers will struggle
to make it much past the Southern Tier of NY. 850 mb
temperatures plummet post front, falling to near -10C by
Saturday morning. Forecast soundings really dry out the boundary
layer and a subsidence inversion lowers quickly but given the
lake temperatures, lake effect showers will continue longer than
modeled. It is looking likely that some of the higher
elevations of NY for the Southern Tier and northward could see
some flurries Saturday morning when the coldest air moves
through.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Next week the northeast looks to remain mostly under a large
upper level ridge. With weak warm air advection aloft, 850 mb
temperatures warm to between 8C and 14C for much of the week.
This is well above average for mid October and with dry air in
place, sunny conditions will help day time temperatures warm
into the 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows will still be on the
cooler side with good conditions for radiational cooling most
nights.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue prior to midnight.
After about 05-06Z, showers and lowering ceilings are expected
to start moving in as the next system approaches. Conditions
will likely continue getting worse through the early morning
hours with MVFR/Fuel-alt restrictions and embedded IFR
conditions. There could also be some embedded thunderstorms
early Friday morning, but confidence on where is low. Confidence
also remains low at this time for the potential for brief
southerly LLWS. Model guidance is showing some mixing overnight
and if that is the case, it will be more low level turbulence
than low level wind shear. However, where surface winds stay
below 10 knots, LLWS conditions will be likely.

South to southwest winds increase tomorrow morning into the
afternoon ahead of a line of convective showers or even embedded
thunderstorms that can produce gusty winds. Thunder will be
added in future updates as confidence increases on location.
Toward the end of the TAF, west to west-northwest west winds
are expected with gusts of 20-25 knots persisting along with
lingering restrictions.

Outlook...

Saturday...Lake effect cloud cover keeps cig restrictions likely
for all terminals but AVP. Early morning snow showers possible
at ITH and BGM.

Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR
conditions expected with possible IFR valley fog at ELM in the
early morning hours.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MWG
AVIATION...DK/MPK