Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

639
FXUS61 KBGM 192349
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
749 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures were lowered a few degrees below guidance for tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday as the next frontal systems
moves through. A few storms may be strong to severe.

2) Conditions will be dry for most of the week. Temperatures will be
around average for this time of year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A broad upper level trough will set up over the Great Lakes by
Tuesday morning. The surface low over Canada will drag the next
frontal system through. A surge of moisture ahead of the leading
warm front will help support scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Following the warm front, a cold front will
eventually push through, though the timing of its passage remains a
bit uncertain. Still, models are showing fairly widespread
precipitation ahead of it. Model guidance varies greatly on
instability Tuesday afternoon, ranging from just a few hundred to
over 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Strong flow aloft will enhance the shear
with values expected to be 40 to 50 kts based on most guidance. Even
with the wide range of instability values, conditions look favorable
for another round of strong to severe storms. While all hazards look
to be possible, the highest confidence is with strong gusts being
the main concern. The Storm Prediction Center maintains an outlook
for the region.

PWATs will range from 1.5 to 2 inches and warm cloud depths will be
10 to 12 thousand feet, which would favor heavy rainfall at times.
Training of thunderstorms would also be a concern. WPC highlights
the area in their ERO valid for Tuesday. Given that some locations
received over 2 inches of rainfall with the last storm system,
antecedent conditions will be more favorable for localized hydro
issues in poor drainage areas despite a couple of dry days in
between.

The upper level trough will dig over the Great Lakes and bring a
trailing shortwave through on Wednesday that will support additional
showers. High pressure and drier air will build in as the trough
slides east, cutting off any remaining showers by Wednesday night.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will keep conditions dry through Monday night.
Patchy, valley fog is expected tonight into Monday morning as
winds will eventually become calm. Temperatures will be around
normal for this time of year, though there will be days with
slightly below normal temperatures, especially following the
passage of the cold front midweek. Daytime highs throughout the
week will be in the 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will
generally be in the 50s and low 60s, though with the southerly
flow present midweek, tomorrow night and Tuesday night will be a
bit more mild.

Surface high pressure will be in control for the second half of the
week, limiting any potential shower activity. The exception would be
the start of the weekend when another front approaches the region,
though even then, the drier conditions may be too much to overcome.
While it remains uncertain if wildfire smoke will return at all this
week, the pattern of a ridge out west and trough in the east would
be favorable flow for off-and-on smoke over the Northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF forecast as
high pressure builds in overhead tonight. This will keep
conditions dry through tomorrow evening. There remains the
potential for some valley fog tonight, mainly around ELM, as
winds become light overnight and early tomorrow. With good
radiational cooling setting up, it is expected that ELM reaches
the crossover temperature, and with enough moisture still at the
surface after Saturday`s rainfall, some valley fog is expected.
However, model soundings show fog very shallow and the latest
numerical guidance has backed off on the idea of fog, so there
still some uncertainty with how low restrictions may be. The
main window for any visby restrictions looks to be around the
usual 07Z to 12 or 13Z tomorrow morning.

Outlook:

Monday night...Mainly VFR; a low chance of showers spreading up
from the south late.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms
along with associated restrictions.

Thursday and Friday... Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...DK