Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

767
FXUS61 KBGM 122310
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
710 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated chances of precipitation slightly for tonight into
tomorrow morning. Thunder chances were also increased for
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another trough of low pressure moves in tomorrow into
Thursday, keeping the cooler weather around with widespread
showers and a chance for thunderstorms in the Finger Lakes into
CNY.

2) A pattern change heading into the weekend and early next
week will allow for much warmer air across the Northeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An area of low pressure will move into the Great Lakes region
tonight into tomorrow with a warm front lifting into the
Northeast. With clouds increasing later today and this evening,
temperatures tonight stay in the 40s with rain moving in after
midnight. Due to the lack of moisture in place, not everyone
will see rain overnight, with the Finger Lakes into the Tug Hill
having the best chance as frontogenesis strengthens along the
front as it moves north.

Tomorrow, the region will be in the warm sector of the low, with
soundings being fairly saturated, widespread cloud cover with
rain showers are likely. This keeps temperatures from warming up
too much though mid level lapse rates and falling 500 mb heights
will help develop instability without too much heating. Shear is
between 30 and 40 knots and 500 - 700 mb lapse rates get to
near 7C/km. The warm sector also does not have much of a
trigger to get them to the level of free convection, with the
cold front later in the afternoon likely being the source of
greater lift for storms. By the time the front moves through,
hodographs are pretty strait so isolated damaging wind gust are
possible.

Once the front is through Wednesday night, a new coastal low
develops off the New England coast. There is some hints that a
TROWAL may form extending from Long Island up into the Catskills
with a heavier band of precipitation. Areas under this feature
may see up to an inch of rain Wednesday night into Thursday
though not enough rain for hydro concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Once this trough is to the east of New England this weekend, the
long awaited warm up looks to begin. The long wave trough that
has been sitting over the eastern US breaks down into faster,
zonal flow with western US troughing starting to develop. This
will open up the eastern US to warmer and more humid southwest
flow. In fact, odds of seeing 80s Sunday or Monday is
increasing. With the increase in moisture, the threat for more
scattered showers and thunderstorms also returns though timing
of shortwaves to trigger the storms is uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Conditions will be mainly VFR for the majority of sites, with
rain coming in later tonight. RME will be the first to see
MVFR/Fuel Alt ceilings prior to 12z while the rest of the
Central NY terminals will have a chance of seeing MVFR ceilings
after 12z. The incoming rain is not expected to reduce
visibilities much. There is some uncertainty on how far south
the rain will extend, so while some passing showers cannot be
ruled out at AVP, confidence was too low to include in the TAFs
at this time.

Surface winds are fairly light, sustained at 5 to 10 kts
currently. Overnight, there will be a brief period of light and
variable winds before southerly winds begin to increase with
sustained speeds of 10 to 15 kts and gusts of 20 to 25 kts. The
strongest gusts are expected by midday.


Outlook:

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night...Scattered showers
with associated restrictions likely. Small chance for thunder
Wednesday afternoon.

Friday...Gradual improvement back to VFR by the afternoon.

Friday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday afternoon.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MJM
AVIATION...KL