Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

434
FXUS61 KBGM 200028
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
828 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chances of precipitation were expanded tonight into Monday morning.
Isolated to scattered snow showers may lingering into Monday
afternoon as a shortwave drops south through the area and
combines with steep low level lapse rates, instability (MUCAPE
100 J/kg) and lingering moisture in the surface to 750mb (0-2km)
layer of the atmosphere. Conditions then dry out quickly by
early Monday evening with clear skies after sunset as high
pressure settles overhead and temperatures plunge into the upper
10s and 20s overnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold air mass in place through Tuesday morning with well
below average temperatures and chances of snow showers tonight.

2) A gradual warm up is expected from mid week into the start
of next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

With the cold front passage this morning, temperatures cooled a
a couple degrees colder than forecast so snow was a bit more
widespread with several inches of accumulation at higher
terrain. The sun is starting to come out from west to east as
the thick cloud cover moves east with the front. The sun will
likely melt all the snow that accumulated today and warm areas
that see sun before 3 pm into the low 40s. With the upper level
trough axis still moving in, 500 mb heights are still falling
with cold air advection in aloft. The combination of solar
heating warming the surface and the cooling aloft will lead to
unstable conditions this afternoon and evening. Scattered rain
and snow showers will develop for much of the region with the
stronger showers containing graupel and potentially some
lightning if the updrafts can get deep enough before losing day
time heating.

Tonight, lake effect snow develops as 850 mb temperatures fall
to near -10C. Boundary layer shear is not favorable for
organized banding but scattered snow showers will develop for
most of CNY and the Finger Lakes into the Twin Tiers of NY/PA.
Accumulation of snow will likely be limited to higher terrain
and elevated surfaces and likely be less than an inch.

The cold airmass remains in place tomorrow, with high
temperatures struggling to climb into the 40s. Forecast
soundings show drier air advecting in aloft, but there should be
enough lingering moisture in the 0-2km layer (up to 750mb) to
allow for more isolated to scattered pop up showers as a
shortwave rotates south through the forecast area. There remains
uncertainty in the exact timing of this shortwave and
subsequent showers. There is also uncertainty in how far and
how fast it may move south into NE PA. Precip type will be
mainly snow showers with very cold air aloft around -10C. The
showers will eventually dissipate as the dry air aloft mixes
down into the boundary layer, with conditions drying out and
clearing by late afternoon or early evening.

The dry air, clear skies, and a surface high building
in is going to lead to a very cold night Monday into Tuesday.
Just for fun, the probability of lows being 25 degrees or colder
on or after April 20th in any given year is around 2% for all
climate sites so very anomalous for this late in the year if we
do fall into the low 20s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a cold morning on Tuesday, the upper level trough is on
its way east with rising 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures
warming back above freezing by the afternoon. The rest of the
week into the weekend is looking mostly dry outside of a frontal
passage overnight Tuesday as a weak 500 mb shortwave moves
through. There is no cold air advection behind this front so a
gradual warm up is expected into next weekend, with highs back
into the 60s and 70s and lows back above freezing. There is
hints that we could be going back into a wetter pattern next
weekend as ensemble 500 mb height anomaly means show a trough
trying to set up in the western US and SW flow developing over
the east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected overnight, there will however
be a chance for scattered snow showers at times for our CNY
terminals. Lake effect snow showers will have the potential to
impact SYR and RME between 00-06z, with some occasion, brief
MVFR restrictions as these showers move through. The showers
then drop south and could impact ITH, ELM and BGM with some
tempo MVFR restrictions between about 04-08z early Monday
morning. VFR conditions then return for the early to mid morning
hours Monday morning (09-14z). After 14z scattered snow showers
are forecast to move through the area from north to south,
potentially bringing another round of tempo MVFR restrictions to
RME and SYR (14-18z) and ITH and BGM (16-23z). Confidence is
only low to moderate in these snow showers materializing.

Northwest flow with light winds overnight. NW winds increase
between 10-20kts heading into late Monday morning and afternoon,
with a few gusts close to 25kts also possible.

Outlook:

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR conditons expected.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...Front approaches the
region with restrictions possible.

Wednesday afternoon and Thursday...VFR conditions possible
inbetween systems.

Friday...Chance for a few showers, mainly VFR. Isolated
restrictions possible at times.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MJM
AVIATION...ES/MJM