Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

986
FXUS61 KBGM 290609
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
209 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...No significant changes in this forecast cycle.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming up and breezy again today through Monday with dry
conditions in place.

2) Unsettled weather returns Monday night into next weekend as a
series of low pressure and frontal systems affect the region.
Uncertainty in the timing and placement of frontal boundaries will
make temperature gradients and precipitation types a challenge at
times toward the weekend. Thunderstorms and locally heavy rain will
also need monitoring from Tuesday to Thursday as will the responses
to smaller rivers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Southwesterly flow returns today with solid warm advection expected
to lift high temperatures back into the 40s and 50s today. Winds
will be active again today as the pressure gradient tightens behind
the retreating high pressure and the boundary layer becomes fully
mixed in this dry environment. Sustained winds of 10-15mph with
gusts up to 25mph will be possible.

Monday will see continued WAA, pushing temps into the mid 50s to low
60s. Guidance is pointing to some rain showers developing late
Monday ahead of a warm front pushing into the area. Timing of the
rain remains uncertain, but guidance continued to trend into the
evening hours thus we have removed the spurious low chance PoPs from
Monday afternoon`s forecast. Can`t rule out a sprinkle or two from
the mid level cloud decks, but the best ingredients for rain comes
together in the evening/night. Monday night will see little change
in temperature due to advection, clouds and precip, so expect
extremely warm lows, as values fall into the mid 40s to low 50s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

An active weather pattern will set up across the US for much of the
weak as a trough develops over the western US and the Bermuda high
slides eastward, allowing the Gulf to open and moisture flow into
the central US.

Confidence continues to increase for showers and storms  Tuesday and
Wednesday as low pressure passes to the north. Most of our area is
expected to be well into the warm sector south of a front on
Tuesday. Model soundings show abundant moisture, (PWATs in the 1.0-
1.5 range) with little CAPE available thanks to morning clouds and
rain. General thunder seems possible, however deep convection looks
to remain west of the area. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low
70s. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Day 4 (Tues-Weds) suggests a
risk of heavy rain generally along and north of the Thruway and
there are some low chance probabilities of 24 hr rainfall greater
than 1 inch indicated by ensemble spread statistics. These signals
are indicated along the warm/stationary front and track of the main
surface low...but we`ll also have to be congnizant of any pre-
frontal convection over the rest of CNY and NE PA. Ensemble mean
guidance suggests the frontal passage will occur Wednesday morning
but how far south the front moves before stalling is still unclear.

The trends here need to be monitored as a front that stalls near the
area would help enhance rain Wed and Thur across portions of the
area, while dry conditions would occur Thurs if the front clears
into the Mid-Atlantic.

Another warm front and low pressure area lifts north into the region
Thursday night and Friday followed by a third system over the
weekend. There are a lot of wildcards associated with these systems
from potential precipitation type issues Thursday night and Friday
morning followed by the simple fact that each system may stack more
and more water across our increasingly sensitive watersheds.
Hydrologic ensembles continue to show medium chances for minor
flooding at some of the headwater points, with even a low
probability (5-10%) to reach moderate stage flooding if everything
comes together. Something to keep in the back of our minds.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the entire 06z TAF period.

Outlook:

Sunday through most of Monday...Mainly VFR.

Monday night through Wednesday...a chance of rain showers and
associated occasional restrictions. Thunder possible Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening.

Thursday...Scattered rain and snow showers along with
occasional restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAB/JTC
AVIATION...KL