Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

546
FXUS61 KBGM 111037
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
637 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a heat advisory for today for the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes Region. Urban valleys should see heat index values
exceed 95 degrees for a few hours this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and muggy conditions are expected today and into the
weekend.

2) Multiple systems are expected to move across the region
through Friday, with thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms
could be severe.

3) Cold front on Sunday will bring cooler conditions for the
beginning of next week, but it also may kick off more severe
thunderstorms as it passes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Hot and muggy conditions are expected today and a heat advisory
has been issued for portions of the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes region. SW return flow will keep advecting in warm 850 mb
temperatures of 15 to 20C and surface dew point temperatures
climb into the 70s today. Leftover convective debris clouds
could limit heating some, but still think that urban valley
areas will see heat index values above 95F for a few hours this
afternoon.

A front moves through Friday into Saturday, helping to lower
dew points back down into the 50s and low 60s so while
temperatures remain warm, the humidity will be much lower. Much
cooler air will finally come by the start of next week, as a
stronger cold front crosses the region on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A warm front lifting in to the region early this morning is
producing thunderstorms across western NY and PA, but latest
CAMs show this activity weakening and fizzling out before
reaching our CWA. Still will have to watch for some convective
development through the early morning hours, but the threat is
low.

Later today, instability increases with mixed layer CAPE of 1500
to 2000 J/kg for much of CNY and into NEPA by later afternoon.
A short wave pushes into NY later today and this should be
enough to kick off storms again during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Forecast hodographs are pretty strait, so
damaging wind gusts are the main concern with any storms that
fire. Weakening mid level lapse rates through the day will lower
the hail risk and the lack of meaningful helicity also lowers
chances of any spin ups.

The cold front will push through on Friday, with a line of
storms likely developing along it. Mid level lapse rates will be
steeper with shear increasing through the day. Hodographs are
still looking fairly strait so strong wind gusts and some small
hail are the main concern with the storms along the front.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Drier air arrives this weekend, with Saturday still quite warm
with highs in the 80s, but dew point readings fall back into
the 50s. On Sunday, another cold front will push through the
region. There are currently some timing differences with this
feature, being it is still 4 days out. However, if the front
arrives in the afternoon, then there will be some potential for
more severe thunderstorms. At this time, models are showing high
shear with 40KT+ of 0-6km bulk shear, but instability will be
determined on the eventual timing of FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LIFR fog at ELM and BGM this morning is expected to dissipate
shortly after sunrise. IFR ceilings at AVP will gradually lift
over the next few hours. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected
through much of the day before showers and thunderstorms develop
this afternoon. Thunderstorms approach from the west this
afternoon into early evening. TEMPO groups for TSRA have been
included at all TAF sites, with associated MVFR ceilings and
visibilities. Confidence in exact timing and placement of
thunderstorms remains low to moderate. Westerly winds will gust
up to 15 knots this afternoon. Although, any thunderstorms that
pass over a terminal could produce locally stronger wind gusts.


Outlook:

Thursday night through Friday Night...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions, especially each
afternoon.

Saturday into Sunday...Cold front moves through with VFR
conditions likely, potential fog at ELM overnight.

Sunday afternoon and Monday... Showers return with MVFR
restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ015>018-022>025-055-056.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...ES/MJM