Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

866
FXUS61 KBGM 300746
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
246 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There were some minor changes made to this forecast. Latest meso
models show heavier lake effect snow over southern Cayuga
County, so they were added to the winter storm warning. Still a
very favorable forecast for long duration lake effect snow event.
Strong wind shear is hindering band development some early this
morning, but that should decrease later today. Models are
depicting a well organized, and larger heavy band expected for
Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida counties from mid morning through
this evening, and 1 to 2 feet of snow is will be possible, with
locally higher amounts. Near blizzard conditions can be
expected at times today in the winter storm warning counties due
to high winds forecasted into this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong winds are expect through this evening. A few gusts
could exceed 50 mph.


2) A long duration lake effect snow event will impact north
central NY today and persist through Thursday. Strong winds
will result in areas of blowing and drifting snow, with periods
of reduced visibility and near blizzard conditions at times.


3) Cold and snowy weather continues through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Strong cold air advection continues today as an arctic cold
front passes early this morning. Northwesterly winds will gusts
above 50 mph at times this morning through this afternoon. Winds
will likely stay elevated until tonight and then decrease
through the overnight hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Lake effect snow showers will continue today. As of early
Tuesday morning, the Lake Ontario snow band has been fairly
narrow and has taken a little more time to organize than
expected. This is likely due to the strong wind shear, but as
shear weakens later this morning into early this afternoon, a
larger and well organized lake effect band of snow is likely to
develop. Snowfall rates may reach 2 to 3 inches per hour from
from this morning through this afternoon. Cold air advection on
persistent west northwest to westerly flow, will allow lake
effect snow to continue through much of the week, with brief
lulls possible as winds temporarily shift due to passing
shortwaves.

We did slightly lower snowfall totals with this mornings update,
as the band has taken more time to get organized due to that
strong wind shear mentioned above. However, as shear weakens
later this morning, there should be a period of very heavy
snowfall and this should keep the forecast snowfall totals
consistent with 1 to 2 feet forecast across portions of
Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida counties. A winter storm warning
for lake effect snow remains in effect for these areas. Decided
to add southern Cayuga County to the warning this morning as
model guidance is showing amounts across the northern edge of
the forecast zone above 1 foot. Winter weather advisories also
remain effect from south and east of the warned region. Heavy
lake effect snow combined with strong gusty winds will result in
widespread blowing and drifting snow, potentially producing
blizzard like whiteout conditions at times. Additionally,
another cold front or clipper system moving through the region
Wednesday night may bring the potential for snow squalls.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Cold northwest flow will support additional lake effect snow
behind Wednesday`s clipper system. Lake effect will develop
again Thursday morning through at least the first half of the
weekend. Flow will then vary between west and northwest Friday
and Saturday leading to the main band of lake of snow drifting
north of the region at times. While it is too early to pinpoint
exact snowfall totals, additional snowfall accumulations will be
possible. As of now, guidance is not showing as favorable of a
set up compared to what is expected early this week. Some drier
air moves into the region Sunday though some light lake effect
snow may linger into Sunday.

The second half of the week will be below normal for temperatures.
Thursday will be the coldest day of the week with highs only in the
teens and 20s and lows in the single digits and low teens. Following
Thursday, temperatures will then be slightly warmer but still chilly.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will be affecting the region over the
next 24 hours. These lake effect showers will contain LIFR vis
with falling and blowing snow. The snow bands are very narrow so
timing their impacts is going to be tough with highest
confidence only over the next 3 to 6 hours. SYR and RME have the
best chance at LIFR for extended periods of time over the next
24 hours being in the favored location for the lake effect. ITH,
ELM and BGM will have more intermittent LIFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. AVP will likely be missed by most of the bands
but there is a low chance that a band will move through either
tonight or late morning tomorrow.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Winds remain gusty but gradually diminish.
Restrictive lake effect snow showers, especially KSYR-KRME but
at least occasionally the other NY terminals. KSYR-KRME may have
combination of heavy snow and blowing snow at times, with below
1 mile visibility.

Wednesday...Lingering lake effect clouds and snow showers for
mainly the NY terminals, but cannot rule out some showers making
it south to KAVP.

Thursday through Saturday...Restrictions possible behind a cold
front that brings snow showers to the region. Limited to mainly
KSYR- KRME by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ009-017-
     018-036-037.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     NYZ044>046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL/ES/MPK
AVIATION...AJG