Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

381
FXUS61 KBGM 172228
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
628 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were made with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) After a gloomy start to the week, high pressure returns tomorrow
with dry, sunny conditions.

2) A frontal system then moves through on Wednesday. Conditions will
be mostly dry late in the week with widespread showers possible this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak boundary continues to push through the region early this
afternoon with a few showers over the Twin Tiers and northeast PA. A
cold front will drop through this afternoon and evening with
additional isolated to scattered showers. Thanks to early rain
showers and cloudy skies, instability will be limited this afternoon,
though enough will be present for isolated thunderstorms. With weak
shear, stronger storms are not a concern. Showers today will be
fairly light, though with any thunderstorms, brief downpours will be
possible. Showers will move out late this evening and high pressure
builds in to bring dry conditions tonight through Tuesday night.
Clear skies, light winds, and moisture from today`s rain will lead
to fairy widespread chances for fog by Tuesday morning. Under sunny
skies, it will burn off much quicker tomorrow than it did today.
Prior to the next batch of rain early Wednesday, fog will be
possible once again Tuesday night.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 50s and low 60s. Despite
blue skies and sunshine, temperatures will only climb into the upper
70s to mid 80s with cooler air still being advected in following
today`s frontal passage. Tuesday`s overnight temperatures will be
similar to tonight, 50s and low 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another cold front will drop through the region on Wednesday with
the next round of scattered showers. As the front moves through,
showers will fall apart and it is possible that southern areas of
the region see no rain at all. Despite the early arrival and sunny
skies in the morning, models have little instability for the region.
Strong mid-level flow will enhance 0-6 km shear values to 40 to 50
kts. As usual, the mid-level lapse rates look to be minimal. So
while thunderstorms will be possible along the front, confidence is
low that there will be strong storms and this seems to be SPC`s
thinking as well with general thunder over most of the region. With
this front, there is still uncertainty on timing and shower coverage
as some solutions like the GFS hold the line of showers together
longer than other guidance.

Following the front, high pressure will build into the region. There
will be some weak disturbances that follow the flow of the upper
level trough over the eastern US Thursday and Friday. With these
systems, there is uncertainty on the exact tracks and how widespread
the precipitation will be. With each of these systems passing near
the coast, showers may clip portions of northeast PA and the
Catskills while central NY stays dry.

High pressure will stay in control though the start of the weekend.
The next system approaches from the west Saturday night into Sunday.
Guidance have a deepening trough with a stacked low developing over
the Great Lakes. There are some differences on the low placement and
that will impact how quickly this system passes through. This far
out, the GFS/AIGFS are outliers with the system more north and much
quicker with its departure.

Temperatures will generally be cooler during the second half of the
week. Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s. Overnight lows will be
in the 50s and 60s, though 40s will also be possible at times for
the typically cool spots.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With abundant surface moisture currently available and a high
pressure system expected to move into the area tonight, we
should see widespread fog develop. ITH/BGM/ELM/RME are expected
to see IFR and lower restrictions starting late this evening
into the morning hours. SYR will likely stay MVFR, and AVP
should remain VFR.

VFR conditions should return across the area by mid-morning
tomorrow, continuing through the TAF period.


Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday morning...Mainly VFR. Some potential
for early morning fog, mainly at KELM.

Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night...Scattered showers
and chance of thunder with associated restrictions possible.

Thursday through Saturday...Passing system may bring
restrictions to ELM/BGM/AVP. More widespread rain with
associated restrictions possible on Saturday

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...KL