Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

815
FXUS61 KBGM 161728
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
128 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
PoPs were expanded Friday night into Saturday morning for lake
effect precipitation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will move through later today and bring showers and
thunderstorms to the region, along with much colder air. There is a
low potential for isolated strong storms.

2) High pressure returns this weekend and temperatures will
gradually warm up next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A warm front will continue to lift through the region early this
morning with the first round of showers that are expected today.
Elevated instability will support isolated heavier showers and
potentially some non-severe thunderstorms as well. Despite strong
flow aloft, an inversion will limit the mixing potential tonight.
However, gusts over 25 mph will still be possible.

This first round of showers will be through by the mid-morning
hours, though some spotty showers will still be possible given the
close proximity of the associated surface low. A squall line is
expected to develop along a cold front that drops in from the
northwest by midday and quickly moves through during the afternoon
hours. While the region will be in the warm sector prior to the
arrival of the front, there is uncertainty on how much instability
will develop under a weak October sun angle and limited clearing of
skies. Models continue to show SBCAPE value of less than 500 J/kg.
Strong mid-level flow will lead to 0-6 km shear rising to 50 to 60
kts - a typical low CAPE, high shear environment for this region.
Based on the timing of the front, the best chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms will be across Northeast PA and the Catskills.
The main hazard will be strong wind gusts. Low-level shear is also
quite high, which supports a low potential for a spin up or two but
that will depend on having adequate instability.

Following the cold front, northwesterly flow will advect in much
colder air. Temperatures will drop into the 20s and 30s tonight.
Lake effect precipitation will develop late today and be enhanced by
a passing upper-level trough. Temperatures will generally stay warm
enough for just rain though a rain/snow mix or even a brief period
of just snow overnight will be possible, especially over the Finger
Lakes Region. Little to no snowfall accumulation is expected. High
pressure builds into the region Saturday, eventually cutting off the
lake effect precipitation by the afternoon. Northwesterly flow may
keep the clouds around slightly longer than forecasted, but some
late breaks of sunshine are expected. Saturday will be quite chilly
with highs only in the 40s. Then overnight, clear skies will lead to
radiational cooling and temperatures dropping into the 20s. For the
Wyoming Valley, frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The area of high pressure will remain present over the region
throughout next week. A quasi-stationary low pressure system will
develop along the East Coast. At times, it will drift northward but
the high pressure will keep precipitation out of the region.
Temperatures will gradually warm up into early next week, becoming
more seasonable. Sunny skies may help push high temperatures back
into the 70s in the valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will be pushing through the region this afternoon
through this evening. Rain showers, some heavy, will produce
restrictions across Central NY sites and into the Southern tier
for the first 2 to 4 hours of the forecast period. Further south
in northeast PA, skies have clear and the added sunshine has
produced more instability there. So AVP, will have potential to
see thunderstorms later this afternoon into early this evening
as the front pushes through.

After the front exits, still unsettled conditions expected
overnight into Saturday with MVFR ceilings possible. Early
morning snow showers will be possible at SYR, ITH and BGM, but
confidence is too low to include at this time.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Saturday night...Lake effect cloud
cover and potential snow showers keeps cig restrictions likely
for all terminals, except AVP.

Sunday through Wednesday...High pressure returns with mostly
VFR conditions expected with possible IFR valley fog at ELM in
the early morning hours.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...MPK