Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

357
FXUS61 KBGM 301755
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
155 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Flood Watch has been issued for Oneida County for Tuesday
morning into Wednesday evening. Otherwise, no significant
changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather returns tonight and persists through much
of the week and possibly into this weekend. Thunderstorms and
locally heavy rain will need to be monitored through the week,
as this will bring the potential for flash flooding and possibly
some minor river flooding.

2) Above normal temperatures are expected through the entire
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An active weather pattern is expected over the next week. Deep
southwesterly flow will bring moisture from the Gulf northward
into the Northeast. A nearly stationary front will start to sag
southward out of Canada overnight tonight and on Tuesday. This
will bring the first period of light to moderate rain showers
tonight.

For Tuesday, PWATs will continue to increase to 2+ standard
deviations above normal for this time of year. Most of our area
will be well into the warm sector south of the front on
Tuesday. Model soundings show abundant moisture (PWATs in the
1.0-1.3 inch range). Mid level lapse rates are expected to
increase over 7C/km by Tuesday afternoon and evening, however
the lower levels will likely remain stable, so MUCAPE values
only get to about 500 J/kg due to the stable low levels. While
parts of the area are in a Marginal Risk in SPC`s Day 2
Convective Outlook, this will be highly dependent on seeing any
clearing and daytime heating, because otherwise there will not
be enough instability. Right now, the expectation is that
morning rain showers and clouds should keep the environment
stable. That being said, a convective line of showers and some
thunderstorms could still bring some gusty winds to the area
late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out due to the strong winds aloft.

The main concern will be long duration moderate to heavy
rainfall rates as the stationary front slowly moves through the
area Tuesday through Wednesday. This, combined with the high
PWATs for this time of the year, will bring a potential for
localized flash flooding. The highest confidence in seeing
flooding issues is currently in Oneida County since the rainfall
will combine with snowmelt. As a result, a Flood Watch has been
issued there and it will be in effect from 8AM Tuesday morning
to 8PM Wednesday evening.

Models show the front barely making it into southern PA or the
northern Mid- Atlantic by Wednesday evening before it lifts back
north a warm front on Thursday. This will bring another round
of rain and showers to the area through Thursday night...with
yet more rain potential on Friday as the center of the low and
eventual cold front press through the area. The latest guidance
continues to show the cold front stalling out as it approaches
the Mid- Atlantic states due to a strong Bermuda High off the
coast. This will open the door for a third system to bring more
rain over the coming weekend. Behind this weekend system, a
stronger front will should clear out the moisture for a while by
the end of the weekend.

There are a lot of variables associated with each of these systems,
however the simple fact that each system may stack more and more
water across our increasingly sensitive watersheds lends careful
watching.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A nearly continuous warm, moist southerly flow will result in
above normal temperatures for the entire week. Highs on Tuesday
and Wednesday will likely be in the 60s to lower 70s. Somewhat
"cooler" temperatures are expected on Wednesday and Thursday
behind a shallow cold front, but temperatures will still be
above normal (highs in the lower 50s to to upper 60s). A return
to a warm, moist southerly flow will result in temperatures
rising once again to the 60s and 70s for Friday and right
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions will be VFR through the afternoon and early evening
hours. Scattered showers will develop late today and pass over
RME, SYR, and ITH, though restrictions are not expected
initially. Late this evening, ceilings will fall to MVFR to Fuel
Alt as visibilities will also be reduced due to rain showers
across Central NY overnight. IFR ceilings will be possible at
RME and BGM, possibly others as well. While rain showers are
expected at AVP as well, any restrictions are not expected until
late Tuesday morning. With any of the showers late tonight
through tomorrow morning, there is a low chance for thunder.

Winds will be out of the southwest for most of the TAF period
though may be variable at times. Gusts of 15 to 20 kts are
expected at all sites. Low-level wind shear is expected at all
Central NY terminals late tonight into Tuesday morning.

Outlook:

Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...a chance of rain showers
and associated occasional restrictions possible. Thunder
possible each afternoon starting Tuesday afternoon.

Friday through Saturday...Scattered rain showers and low chance
for afternoon thunderstorms; associated occasional restrictions
possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for
     NYZ009-037.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...BTL