Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

548
FXUS61 KBGM 281840
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
240 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased cloud cover and gusty NW winds this afternoon; adjusted
PoPs to better show where isolated showers will be possible through
early this evening. Increased PoPs Friday evening as the next potent
cold front swings through the area from the north. Also increased
winds and wind gust Friday evening through Saturday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Clouds and isolated showers decrease heading into this evening
and tonight. Winds also diminish overnight.

2) A cold front then moves in from the north late Friday afternoon
and evening with increasing northwest winds and shower chances.
Cool, somewhat cloudy weather lingers into Saturday under the upper
level trough.

3) Upper level blocking pattern remains in place, with another low
diving south into the area for Monday and Tuesday next week. This
will keep conditions cooler than average with at least scattered
shower chances around. The upper level trough gradually moves away
from the region by the middle to end of next week, with drier,
warmer weather expected to return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES 1...

A shortwave and its associated cold front pushed south through the
area this morning. Behind this feature clouds have increased, with
broken coverage and a few isolated rain showers also developed.
Northwest winds increased, with a few gusts between 25-35 mph noted.
As drier air filters back into the area, expect clouds to scatter
out for more late afternoon and evening sunshine across the majority
of the forecast area. Cannot rule out a few isolated showers
lingering across the Catskills region through 6-7 PM. Winds will
also gradually diminish, dropping back to to 5-15 mph by sunset, and
even lower overnight. Temperatures will not warm up very much this
afternoon, even with more breaks of sunshine. Expect highs to only
be in the upper 50s to mid-60s for most locations, with some upper
60s for the Wyoming Valley region. Tonight features clearing skies,
light winds and lows in the in the 40s to around 50 expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Friday starts off with mostly sunny skies, mild temperatures and
light winds. Temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid-70s
by early afternoon in most areas.

Then, a potent upper level low and its associated front
drops in from the north. Clouds rapidly increase across the I-90
corridor and Mohawk Valley by the early to mid-afternoon hours, and
the Twin Tiers by late afternoon. Rain showers then develop and move
south across Central NY during the early to mid evening hours.
Increased PoPs, as showers are likely to impact much of Central NY
Friday evening, but QPF amounts will be light; under a tenth of an
inch and in most cases just a few hundreths of an inch. a few
showers may even make it down into Northeast PA Friday evening, but
will only last for a few hours at best, with very light amounts.

Behind the cold front northwest winds are forecast to quickly ramp
up, between 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph expected overnight and
even into Saturday morning. The strongest wind gusts are expected
over the hilltops in NE PA, where up to 40 mph is possible.

After the initial cold front moves through the center of the mid and
upper level low then drops south across the Hudson Valley Friday
night into early Saturday morning. This will bring a cold, moist NW
flow into our area as 850mb temperatures fall near 0C. Thick low
level stratus clouds will linger into Saturday morning, and there
could even be some sprinkles or light spotty showers as well. By
Saturday afternoon some drier mid level air arrives, bringing a
return to partly sunny skies. With the cold air aloft in place,
highs temperatures only reach he upper 50s to mid-60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Sunday will feature dry, mostly sunny weather under brief upper
level ridging. Then, the next upper level low drops down from the
north as the large Omega block remains in place over the CONUS.
There remains uncertainty on the exact arrival time of the next wave
of low pressure and when chances for rain would increase. The
current ensemble blend (NBM) keeps our weather mainly dry, but does
bring a slight chance for showers Sunday night and Monday over
eastern areas. Temperatures are fairly steady Sunday into Monday,
with highs in the mid-60s to lower 70s each day. Saturday night will
be quite chilly with lows ranging from the upper 30s to mid-40s. It
will be a little milder Sunday night, with lows in the mid-40s to
low 50s expected. Chances for scattered showers increase on Tuesday,
with even a slight chance for thunderstorms as the upper level low
potentially settles over the eastern half of our forecast area.
There remain significant differences in the 500mb height pattern
from the deterministic guidance, including big run to run changes.
Therefore, the official forecast will be based on the NBM/WPC
guidance heading into Tuesday and the middle of next week. By
Wednesday it appears the block will finally start to break down and
the upper level low will begin exiting the area. Again, we will need
to monitor trends on this low`s position to see if it will truly
exit by Wednesday; ensemble guidance still lingers slight to low end
chance for a few pop up showers Wednesday as this low exits.
Temperatures remain steady Tuesday and Wednesday, in the mid 60s to
low 70s areawide...which is slightly below average for early June.

Forecast guidance shows dry weather and a warm up into the mid or
upper 70s by next Thursday as upper level ridging begins to move in
from the Midwest/Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period, with
exception to ITH, where MVFR ceilings linger over the next
couple of hours before returning to VFR.

Otherwise, gusty northwesterly winds are expected this afternoon
before decreasing in the evening.

Outlook:
Thursday afternoon through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday Night and Saturday...Chance for scattered showers and
associated restrictions.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR; potential for afternoon showers
that could cause restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...ES/KL