Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

621
FXUS61 KBGM 301046
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
646 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased coverage of precipitation chances today through
tomorrow. Also added plentiful valley fog for the next few
nights.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Active weather pattern returns today as we end up on the
Northeast edge of a large ridge in the South Central US.

2) A stronger shortwave looks to pass around the northeast edge
of the ridge mid next week with potential for stronger
thunderstorms and heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strengthening ridge of high pressure is building over the
Southern Plains today with a trough sitting just off the east
coast of Northern New England. This puts us in the "Ring of
Fire" around the ridge helping to keep our daily precipitation
chances elevated. Given that we are starting to get later in the
year and our days getting shorter with a lower sun angle, we
will not build up a lot of instability most afternoons despite
good shear in place, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 50 knots
over the next week. Clouds will also help in lowering the amount
of solar heating we get so most days, we only see a few hundred
joules of CAPE develop. Subtle shortwaves today and tomorrow
will lead to widely scattered rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Surface based CAPE will be limited through
Tuesday and mid level lapse rates are between 5C/km and 6C/km
will greatly limit the severe thunderstorm potential today and
tomorrow. Tuesday and Wednesday have more sun and a more potent
shortwave in the models currently, though these days will be
focused on in key message 2. Beyond Wednesday, troughing may
build back in, but daily showers may still pop up in the
afternoons under the cooler air aloft.

With the increase in moisture and likely some rainfall daily,
valley fog will be prevalent most mornings if there is any
clearing of the clouds in the overnight hours. Locally dense fog
will form in the typical spots, the valleys of the Chemung,
Susquehanna, and Delaware Rivers. The Wyoming and Mohawk Valleys
may even get some dense fog if clearing overnight could last
more than a few hours Monday night and Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Tuesday and Wendesday this week look to have late season severe
potential. The ridge builds a little bit more into the
Northeast, with warmer, more humid conditions pushing in helping
to build better Surface Based CAPE. Looking at Ensemble
probabilities of greater than 1000 J/kg of surface CAPE and bulk
shear greater than 30 knots, both Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons have a greater than 50% chance of meeting those
requirements. Lowering CAPE to 500 J/kg, probabilities get over
80% Tuesday and 70% Wednesday. Deterministic models vary more
but there is good consistency in Tuesday having between 30 and
40 knots of shear with CAPE closer to 1000 in the model means.
Wednesday has better shear, with models consistent with shear
closer to 50 knots. Wednesday also has the stronger shortwave
passage.

Putting it all together, Tuesday`s potential is a little lower
with less synoptic support for triggers, but still could be
some isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. With
hodographs mostly strait and NW flow, hail and damaging wind
gusts would be the main concern. Wednesday, hodographs are more
curved with the passage of the shortwave and have longer tails.
Its tough to figure out what the storm evolution may be, as
there is plenty of synoptic lift. This could cause it to me
cloudy and limit surface CAPE and keep storms more elevated with
hail and localized downburst being a concern. If it does end up
being warmer and sunny with surface based CAPE, all hazards are
possible. Storms may upscale quick into an MCS as well with the
strength of the shortwave so flash flooding will likely become
a concern especially later in the day and overnight Wednesday. A
low level jet and plenty of heat and moisture in the ridge
feeding into the shortwave may help sustain storms and upstream
redevelopment well into the night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Rain showers will move into the area later this morning, moving
from NW to SE across the region with conditions remaining mostly
VFR into the evening hours. A few showers may be heavy enough to
reduce conditions to MVFR but these restrictions should not
last. Scattered rain shower chances will remain into the
overnight hours.

Widespread fog is expected across the region tonight with IFR
and lower restrictions possible at BGM/ELM/RME/ITH.


Outlook...

Monday through Thursday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible with associated restrictions, especially each
afternoon/evening.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...JTC