Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

717
FXUS61 KBGM 072347
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
647 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler and wetter weather pattern this weekend into early
next week.

2) Watching the potential for a stronger low or noreaster to
potentially form late this week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level low is slowly moving through the Northeast this
weekend with cool, cloudy, and showery weather expected. 850 mb
temperatures have fallen to around 0C with soundings showing
some destabilization this afternoon where there is clearing.
Rain showers should increase in coverage this afternoon,
especially along and west of I-81 where there is currently some
clearing on satellite.

Tonight into tomorrow, cold air continues to slowly filter in
over the Great Lakes and with flow more northwesterly, some lake
effect rain showers likely develop. Day time temperatures will
be around climatological averages for mid november though cloud
cover at night will keep lows a little warmer than average.
Rainfall amounts between the showers today and the lake effect
showers tomorrow will be mostly light, with less than a tenth of
an inch expected for most of the area. The Tug hill could get
closer to a half inch of rain today with help of topography and
NEPA may miss out on most of the precipitation tonight into
tomorrow.

An additional shortwave dives out of the NW on the back side of
the exiting shortwave trough that brings a reinforcing shot of
cooler air. 850 mb temps drop back to just below 0C allowing for
more lake effect rain showers to develop. These will once again
be light and limited to the eastern Finger Lakes Region and
into CNY.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Late next week into the weekend still has potential for a
stronger low pressure system to form. Most models and ensembles
do have an area of low pressure that forms after several
shortwaves phase in the central US. The efficiency of the phase
and timing is still uncertain which will affect both the low
location as well as intensity. The 12Z GFS solution is one of
the more bullish runs from the 12Z model suit and has a more
efficient phase of the shortwaves resulting in a Miller B
Noreaster. The AIGFS as well as the most recent Euro has a less
efficient phase and a more suppressed solution keeping the low
moving more west to east rather than up the coast into New
England like the GFS. Ensemble member low pressure center
locations have shifted a little south with more members
representing the more suppressed solution. 500 mb trends have
been to a stronger ridge over the Hudson Bay so if that trend
continues then that could mean more models will also trend
towards a weaker, suppressed system as well.

Precipitation type is another area with lots of uncertainty. If
the GFS solution is correct and a Miller B Noreaster is able to
form, the deepening low will help the northwest deformation
zone of the low to dynamically cool the atmosphere and support a
transition to snow. With higher QPF as well snow amounts could
be locally large especially at higher elevation with pockets of
6+ inches possible. A weaker, suppressed solution would struggle
to get the atmosphere cool enough for widespread snow and if it
does transition to snow, it would be a wet snow that struggles
to accumulate much. Sounding thermodynamic profiles even in the
GFS are near freezing through the duration of the heavier
precipitation so dynamic cooling is likely going to be very
important in producing a swatch of heavier snow, thus leading
to a great amount of uncertainty this far out in regards to snow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A potent upper level low over CNY this evening will push to the
east overnight. As a result varying conditions are expected across
NY terminals with scattered showers, most numerous around RME
and BGM, with MVFR/Fuel-atl to occasional IFR restrictions. As
the low moves east and the flow becomes more northwesterly,
ceilings are expected to become IFR late this evening and
overnight around at RME, SYR, ITH, BGM and possibly ELM. Some
spotty lake effect showers can persist around the northern
terminals as well.

AVP is expected to be mainly VFR this evening before ceilings
lower there as well to MVFR/Fuel-alt later tonight with isolated
showers possible. Conditions are expected to improve late
tomorrow morning and into the afternoon at all terminals as VFR
conditions return with westerly winds gusting 15-20 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon...Mainly VFR. Showers and possibly
restrictions return Sunday night.

Monday...Lingering showers and possible restrictions, mainly in
the morning.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with low chance for
showers at RME.

Thursday...Showers and associated restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MWG
AVIATION...DK/ES