Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

240
FXUS61 KBGM 051047
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
647 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gusty wind wording was added to the forecast for areas of
central New York this afternoon and evening. Added mention of
patchy frost in spots Friday morning where the growing season
has started.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Windy and warm today, Scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop across central New York this afternoon and evening.

2) A slow moving frontal boundary pushes through mid-week with
additional rounds of showers.

3)Another broad trough remains in place for the weekend and
early next week bringing more cool and showery weather to the
area. Conditional threat for frost Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Warm southwesterly flow will continue ahead of a cold front
today across the region. Modeled boundary layer temperatures
still indicate many locations could get into the 70`s for highs
today. Inverted V soundings do show the potential for some wind
gusts over 30 mph reaching the surface as well today.

Enough lift and moisture looks present to develop some
scattered showers and thunderstorms across CNY this afternoon.
Steep low level lapse rates and around 500-1,000 J/KG CAPE
should provide some instability. The amount of modeled shear
while not a lot may be sufficient enough to organize some
thunderstorms into clusters with the potential for gusty to
locally damaging winds. The thunderstorm potential should
quickly drop off tonight with the loss of daytime heating.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The front slowly progresses through the area Wednesday but has
trended more progressive Thursday. Continue to see indications
of fairly widespread showers Wednesday with a potentially sharp
temperature difference across the region from the 40`s to 60`s.
Most of the shower activity does look to exit most of the region
by Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Cooler air will filter into the region behind the front. If
sufficient clearing occurs Friday morning some frost is
possible. Modeled 850 mb temperatures do fall below 0C with
winds becoming light for a time.

A broad trough of low pressure looks to bring several mid-
level disturbances later Friday into early next week resulting
in cooler and showery conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions will be be VFR throughout most of today, but showers
and thunderstorms push into the region this afternoon and
evening with associated restrictions. Winds will increase after
sunrise and become more southerly. Peak gusts of near 30 kts
will be possible at most terminals. After the storms move out
tonight, there is potential for low ceilings and fog.

Outlook:

Wednesday and Thursday...Restrictions possible from rain
showers.

Friday through Saturday...Chances for showers and restrictions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will reach well into the 70s this afternoon over
the area. Skies should remain partly to mostly sunny over the
Catskills region through much of the day. This will allow RH
values to fall between 30-40% in the afternoon and early evening
hours. Southwest winds will be sustained between 10-20 mph,
with gusts of 25-35 mph (locally 40 mph on exposed ridgetops).
Considering all of these parameters decided to issue a fire
weather special weather statement for Delaware and Sullivan
Counties. Further to the west, across the rest of the
Leatherstocking region the min RH looks to hold between 40-50%
in the early afternoon, so decided to not hoist any Special
Weather Statements here at this time.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ208.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...MPK
FIRE WEATHER...