Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

269
FXUS61 KBGM 101806
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
106 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added some higher precipitation amounts Friday for wrap around
lake effect precipitation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and breezy conditions expected for the rest of today
and tomorrow, with light lake effect rain showers returning for
northern Central NY going into the evening hours later today.

2) A deepening area of low pressure moves into the northeast
Wednesday night with rain overspreading the region by Thursday
Morning. Some snow is possible Friday into Saturday on the back
side of the low some minor accumulation of snow possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Weak mid and upper level ridging is in place today into
tomorrow though there is a subtle low level shortwave moving in
from the North. This will mainly lead to a few scattered lake
effect rain showers mainly for the Tug Hill region late this
afternoon through tonight. Warm air advection through the
overnight hours tonight and tomorrow night will help keep lows a
little warmer than climatology, with mins in the upper 30s and
40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A trough digging into the central US today along with a weak
mid level shortwave near the gulf coast will attempt to phase
later this week. A surface low begins to slowly deepen in the
Ohio river valley Wednesday night into Thursday, with the warm
front lifting into the Northeast Wednesday night. This will
bring widespread rain to most of the region. With recent trends
in models indicating a poor phase between the midwest trough and
gulf coast shortwave the low will likely not deepen quickly.
This means that even though the low is likely going to pass
south of our region, the cold air aloft does not filter in quick
enough to transition the precipitation to snow until the low is
well east of us and most of the precipitation has come to an
end. 850 mb temperatures below freezing do not start filtering
in until late Thursday into Thursday night, with the overall
cold air advection weak so deep enough cold air for snow to
valley floors may not occur till Friday Morning. By then there
will only be some residual showers though wrap around
precipitation may keep some snow going in the Catskills. A
deeper core of colder air moves in Saturday, with favorable
conditions for Lake Effect Precipitation. Near the lake shore,
the water temperatures may keep the precipitation mostly rain,
including the NY thruway Corridor. The higher elevations south
of I-90 in CNY will see snow but warm ground temperatures,
snowfall during the day, and snow fall rates below a half inch
per hour in the heavier showers will prevent any accumulation
from happening.

High pressure builds in late this weekend into early next week
with a gradual moderation of temperatures while remaining mostly
dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. RME
will have brief chances at borderline MVFR ceilings this
afternoon, but kept the forecast just above MVFR for now. Gusty
winds this afternoon out of the west will decrease this evening
with light and variable winds expected overnight into Wednesday.


Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...Showers and associated
restrictions possible.

Friday through Saturday...A mix of rain/snow showers possible
and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...BTL/MPK