Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

203
FXUS61 KBGM 221639
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1239 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major chances to the forecast package. Widespread rainfall
will continue through the afternoon hours, wrapping up by the
evening hours.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A system will continue bringing widespread rainfall across
the area, wrapping up completely by the evening hours. Most
areas will see between an half inch and an inch, with isolated
areas a little above an inch. An isolated storm or two is
possible for Northeast Pennsylvania this evening.

2) Dry, northerly flow tomorrow and Wednesday will bring mostly
sunny skies and a chance for overnight fog in deeper valleys.
The pattern turns more unsettled and warmer for the end of the
week into the weekend as flow becomes more west to southwest
with moisture returning to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An area of low pressure is currently tracking over PA, bringing
rounds of widespread rainfall across the area. So far, around a
half inch to three quarters of an inch of rain has fallen in
most areas, and an additional quarter to a half inch of rain can
be expected through the mid-afternoon into the evening hours.
We`re already starting to see the back edge of reflectivity on
radar on the very western edges of the area, and this clearing
edge will move west-to-east through the afternoon.

In NE PA, there`s a bubble of instability over the area this
evening, and tied in with some moderate 0-6 km shear values, an
isolated storm or two is possible this evening. If the warm
front associated with this system doesn`t fully lift through NE
PA, this could help mitigate any storm from becoming strong to
severe. If it does fully lift, instability would increase, as
well as the severe storm threat.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Once the low is through the region tonight, north to northwest
flow behind the low brings in dry air and high pressure tomorrow and
Wednesday. Day time will see mostly sunny skies with dry air
mixing its way to the surface lowering humidity through peak
heating. At night, after all the rain, greater evaporation in
the afternoon and evening will help increase the low level
moisture enough for some valley fog development.

For Thursday into next weekend, the flow aloft becomes more
zonal with a westerly to southwesterly flow. While timing of
shortwaves are all over the place this far out, there is high
confidence that there will be multiple waves late week and into
the weekend to move through that could trigger showers and
storms. The Bermuda high also is meandering back west, towards
Bermuda, which will help with advecting in warmer air aloft as
well as open up the region to better moisture from the Gulf and
Atlantic. There is looking to be at least some strong to severe
storm risk as well, with the 500 mb wind speeds remaining
between 35 and 60 knots Thursday into Saturday so that will
supply some shear with the shortwave passages.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A low pressure system will bring rain through the evening hours.
Initial VFR conditions will become MVFR across the region by mid
morning as steady rain moves in. IFR restrictions will be
possible late this morning into the afternoon hours as heavier
rain showers are forecast to move through the area. IFR should
lift for a little bit late this afternoon. IFR restrictions
should return as the center of the low moves through the area,
switching the wind direction to more NWerly late in the evening.
These ceilings should stick around through the overnight hours.
ELM should remain MVFR as NWerly winds usually keep ceilings
around 1200ft.

Outlook:

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday...Additional restrictions possible as a
short wave moves through the region with showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KL/AJG
AVIATION...JTC