Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

090
FXUS61 KBGM 211138
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
638 AM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Made some minor adjustments to forecast snowfall totals from
today`s lake effect snow showers north of the NY Thruway
corridor. Also slightly decreased the chance for precipitation
for Thursday/Christmas Day; the greater chance for precipitation
will be Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake effect snow showers will develop today and persist
through tonight. The more persistent lake effect snow is
expected to occur just north of the NY Thruway corridor.

2) Confidence continues to increase in the potential for a light
to moderate snowfall Monday night through Tuesday, mixing with
rain Tuesday afternoon.

3) Temperatures will trend above normal for the mid to late
week, along with multiple chances for mixed precipitation from
weak systems.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak, moisture-starved cold front will move through the area
early this morning. This will result in a few flurries and a
wind shift from southerly to westerly. Behind this front, 850mb
temperatures will fall to around -14C, which will set the stage
for lake effect snow showers downwind of Lake Ontario. Somewhat
limited moisture and the bands of lake effect snow likely being
transient will likely prevent snow accumulations from being
significant. While snowfall along and north of the NY Thruway
corridor will mostly be in the 1-3 inch range, there could be
some locally heavy snowfall (locally up to 1 inch per hour
rates) embedded within some of the bands, which may result in
some isolated 4+ inch amounts in Oneida County. After
coordinating with WFOs BUF and ALY, it was decided to hold off
on issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for Oneida County due to
low confidence in seeing 4+ inch snowfall amounts, but if
confidence increases, a shorter-fused advisory could be issued
later today.

Elsewhere, today will feature mainly-precipitation free weather
along with partly sunny skies. It will be breezy with wind gusts
of 20-30 mph possible at times, especially this afternoon.
Highs are expected to be in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A shortwave/clipper system will pass through the area Monday
night through Tuesday. With marginal temperatures in place and
the track of the system likely being to the north, precipitation
will likely begin as light to moderate snow late Monday night
and Tuesday morning, before transitioning to a rain/snow mix by
Tuesday afternoon. There could be some isolated pockets of
freezing rain as the colder air at the surface may take slightly
longer to erode away, but the overall potential for this is
rather low at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Ridging in the Central U.S. will result in a quasi-zonal flow
for the mid-late week time period, which will prevent cold air
from spilling into the region. This will also create a favorable
pattern for multiple weak shortwaves/clipper systems to move
through the region. With the marginal temperatures, a mix of
rain and snow will be possible from these weaker systems. One of
those systems will likely move through the area Christmas night
into Friday.

Highs on Thursday/Christmas Day and Friday will generally be in
the mid 30s to lower 40s. This is a few degrees above normal for
this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front has pushed into the NW portion of the CWA, with
winds picking up to 30kt gusts out of the WNW and light VFR
snow showers. These winds should impact ELM/ITH/BGM/AVP as the
front moves through over the next few hours. Gusts should
lighten up a bit, down to the mid 20kts, for the rest of the
day.

IFR restrictions from snow is expected to move into RME later
this morning, followed by SYR a couple of hours later. Guidance
is a little more clear on the timing of the more organized snow,
starting around 16z and lasting into the evening. Still not
very confident as to when the band will migrate south this
afternoon and when it will move back to the north, but the
current timing in the TAFs seems the most reasonable based on
multiple guidance solutions.

Outlook...


Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday into Tuesday night...Occasional restrictions possible
in rain and snow.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...A low chance of rain and snow showers and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...JTC