Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

855
FXUS61 KBGM 081022
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
622 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There has been a modest increase in potential for thunderstorms
for at least the Finger Lakes area late Wednesday, but
uncertainty for how far south and east it will go from there.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Despite a cool dawn, warming will get underway today and then
peak on Wednesday.

2) A front moves in late Wednesday into Thursday bringing rain
and a chance of thunderstorms to parts of the region, a few of
which could be gusty.

3) Generally dry benign weather returns towards the end of this
week, with temperatures bumping back up over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Dry weather will continue today through most of Wednesday, with
warming as we get on the back side of high pressure. That
surface high is in charge currently, with radiational cooling
yielding a fairly chilly start to the day with upper 40s-mid 50s
around dawn. Ridging is getting underway aloft, but will take
longer at the surface as the high slowly edges east and thus
dewpoints will still be comfortable this afternoon. Sun will be
mixed with scattered mid-to-high level clouds, but will still
manage to help temperatures reach well into the 70s; a few lower
elevation locations even near 80.

The high exits more decidedly overnight, making way for
increasing southerly to southwesterly warm air advection. Thus
it will not be quite as cool tonight with lows of mid 50s-lower
60s. Dewpoints will also be noticeably on their way up, reaching
mid-upper 60s to cause a muggy feel. Temperatures have also
trended a touch higher in latest guidance since we will spend
all day in the warm sector of the incoming system with at least
partial sunshine. Highs of upper 70s-mid 80s could easily feel
another few degrees higher given the humidity.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Canadian low pressure will trail a cold front through our region
late Wednesday into Thursday. With models trending just a touch
warmer ahead of the front and thus a little more instability,
there has been a small uptick in potential for thunder Wednesday
afternoon at least to our west. Ensemble probabilities carry
this into the Finger Lakes Wednesday evening, with potential for
a few to several hundred J/kg of Convective Available Potential
Energy (CAPE) along with decent 30-40 knots of shear in much of
the lowest 6km. However, nocturnal timing for the front itself
leads to doubt for how far southeast the thunder can manage to
reach. Regardless, given the amount of shear, a conditional
potential for a few gusty cells has to be considered and indeed
the Storm Prediction Center recently introduced a Marginal Risk
of Severe Thunderstorms for roughly the Twin Tiers northward,
centered over the Finger Lakes.

Precipitable Water Values will pool along the approaching front
to beyond 1.75 inches across the Central to Eastern Great
Lakes. The front looks to be fairly progressive as it moves
through so training thunderstorm threat is lowering. That said,
heavier rainfall rates in some thunderstorms could lead to brief
localized urban/poor drainage water issues if occurring over a
town or city Wednesday evening, with northern Finger Lakes to NY
Thruway Corridor a little more prone to that compared to areas
south. Frontal progress will slow somewhat on Thursday, being so
far from the parent low and also starting to get more flow-
parallel. This will keep a chance of showers and perhaps thunder
going mainly south of the Twin Tiers.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

High pressure a brief shot of cool air advection should yield
a window of Fall-ish weather Thursday night into the first part
of the weekend, similar to what we recently experienced.
However, with a fast moving zonal pattern aloft, the high will
pass quickly to allow warming to return over the weekend.
Forecast temperatures of 70s to near 80 are figured for Saturday
and Sunday. That said, moisture will remain quite limited, and
thus passing yet-to-be-resolved waves embedded in the flow do
not have very high odds of producing rain. So for now, chances
for showers Saturday night onward are still only in the 20-40
percent range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIFR fog at ELM should lift between 13 and 14z with VFR
conditions remaining through the TAF period. Fog tonight looks
less likely as more clouds are expected to stream overhead. VFR
conditions are expected at all terminals through the TAF period
as high pressure dominates the weather pattern today.


Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Potential cold front passage with
wind shift and showers. Highest chance for showers later
Wednesday through Thursday morning.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with high pressure
building into the region. Morning fog will be possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...JTC