Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

662
FXUS61 KBGM 100138
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
938 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made to the forecast at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm and humid tonight with isolated showers and
thunderstorms, mainly through the evening.

2) Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday
afternoon and evening along a stalled frontal boundary with
localized flash flooding possible over the Twin Tiers into the
Wyoming Valley.

3) After seasonal temperatures this weekend, heat builds into the
area through the middle of next week with possible storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Warm and moderately humid conditions across the area this
afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the mid 80s to low 90s
with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. It will feel slightly
muggy out, but nothing like last week. Heat indices will only be
a few degrees higher than actual temperatures so heat headlines
were not needed for today.

Showers and storms are expected to develop across portions of
the area later this afternoon and evening. Model soundings are
showing a mid level warm nose, capping convection across the
area this afternoon. This should last into the early evening
hours before finally breaking and allowing some isolated storms
to develop. A very positively tilted trough and associated
surface boundary is spread across the Great Lakes into Ontario
and will slowly slide into the area late this afternoon into the
evening. MLCAPE values of 1000-1500j/kg are expected to be
present across the northern Finger Lakes into Oneida county late
this afternoon and evening along with 0-6km bulk shear
increasing to around 30kts. These parameters combined with the
mid-level cap breaking should allow for a few storms to develop
over the northern Finger Lakes into Oneida county. The window
for these storms to become severe looks to be small as the cap
is forecast to break only a few hours before sunset. That being
said, an isolated severe storm with strong to damaging winds
cannot be ruled out over this area.

Storm activity is progged to weaken as the evening progresses,
but a few isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out across
the area into the overnight hours with the late breaking cap
and warm and humid air sticking around. The trough is slowly
moving to the east, and with its positive tilt, steering winds
are mostly west to east. This will allow the "cool" front moving
in from Canada to very slowly slide south through the area
through the overnight hours into Friday. A few showers could
develop along the boundary as it slides south.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

With the frontal boundary slowly sliding south and synoptic
winds continuing to be from the west, humidity is expected to
remain high but temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s
on Friday. By Friday afternoon, a shortwave bringing some mid-
level flow enhancement is forecast to move into the area. This
shortwave combined with the front draped somewhere across the
Twin Tiers will kick off scattered afternoon showers and storms
across portions of the Finger Lakes, Twin Tiers and into the
Catskills and Poconos. CAPE values around 1500j/kg combined
with 0-6km bulk shear increasing to 30-40kts with the shortwave
will allow for isolated severe storms to be possible from
Steuben county east into the central Southern Tier and SE into
the Wyoming Valley and Poconos, with damaging winds as the main
threat. A Marginal Risk for severe storms has been issued by the
SPC over this area.

To go along with the isolated severe threat, heavy
rainfall leading to isolated flash flooding will also be
possible across the Twin Tiers into the Wyoming Valley and
Poconos. PWATs of 1.5-2in, MBE vectors below 10kts showing slow
moving or back building storms, warm cloud depths of 11-12k ft
allowing for efficient rainfall generation and a slow moving
boundary all add up to a Marginal Risk for flash flooding across
the aforementioned area.

Showers and storms should dissipate in the evening as daytime
heating ends and the trough axis finally moves through the area,
switching synoptic flow to northerly and ushering in cooler,
drier air to the region. Friday night lows and dewpoints will be
in the upper 50s to low 60s.


Key Message 3...

High pressure will be in control over the area for the weekend,
keeping flow northerly and conditions dry and seasonal.

A very strong ridge centered over the western US will be the
main weather driver through at least the middle of next week.

The ridge positioning this weekend will push the eastern edge of
a surface high into our area. This will keep flow out of the
north through the weekend with pleasant seasonal conditions
expected.

The ridge will strengthen and build into the north central US
by Monday. This will shift winds to westerly through mid-week
and push hot air into the region. Monday should be the most
"pleasant" warm day as temperatures climb into the mid to upper
80s but dewpoints remain in the upper 50s. The humidity will
return by Tuesday and through mid-week as dewpoints climb up
into the mid 60s. We may also see some storms develop and ride
the edge of the ridge into our region. Confidence in this
occurring is low at this time, but the pattern that is setting
up lends itself to mesoscale convective systems developing over
the north central US and that energy riding the ridge into our
area. This is very dependent on where the MCS develops and how
the flow around the ridge is oriented. Lots of times these
systems have to develop first before model guidance can catch on
to it and give us an idea of where storms may go, but the setup
is good enough to mention the chance of this occurring now.

Long range model guidance is hinting at the center of the ridge
retrograding westward back over the western US. This would more
than likely put a trough over eastern Canada that would
influence our weather pattern with cooler temperatures but more
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms look to stay away from all
terminals this evening at this time. A brief gust was noted at
KITH but that thunderstorm is moving between KITH and KSYR.
Still monitoring a few thunderstorm well west of KAVP possibly
requiring a TEMPO later on if they don`t weaken over the next
hour or two.

Confidence is higher with a MVFR stratus deck forming over all
CNY terminals by the overnight hours with the potential for a
few spots getting down to fuel-alternate levels. Ceilings should
lift slowly to VFR by early afternoon. Additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible at KELM,KITH,KBGM and
KAVP Friday afternoon but coverage and timing is too uncertain
for TAF mention at this time.

Outlook:

Friday night...Dissipating showers and thunderstorms
early...then patchy valley fog late. Restrictions possible.

Saturday into Tuesday...VFR likely with high pressure building
in, morning fog potential at ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...MWG