Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

654
FXUS61 KBGM 261808
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
208 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes for this update, but the potential for
severe thunderstorms remains for Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) After a pleasant day today, showers and thunderstorms track
across the area for Thursday. Some of the storms will have the
potential for damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours resulting
in flooding.

2) Mainly dry weather expected Friday through the weekend as high
pressure crosses the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure and a ridge tracking out of the region will provide
for warm and dry conditions today. Highs in the mid 70s to near 80
with Td values in the upper 50 to around 60 will keep conditions
comfortable for the day.

A warm front will track across the area on Thursday morning,
ushering in a warmer and more humid airmass within the warm sector
of a sfc low tracking across Ontario and Quebec. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move across the area, first with a
pre-frontal trough during the afternoon, and then again with an
incoming cold front during the mid-evening hours. Most of the
guidance brings around 1,500 J/kg of cape into the area. There still
remains some uncertainty with the amount of clearing after the
passage of the warm front and ahead of the incoming pre-frontal
trough. Shear values support damaging wind gusts with a lesser
extent for hail; an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out. Shear
values during the afternoon/evening in the 30+ knot range are
expected and with increased clearing, cape values could reach 2,000+
J/kg. For Thursday, a `Slight Risk` is in place from SPC for all but
the far western portion of the BGM forecast area, where a `Marginal
Risk` for severe thunderstorms is in place.

PWat values will increase to over 1.50 inches on Thursday, leading
to the greater potential for thunderstorms to cause heavy rainfall
and for flooding. A `Marginal Risk` of excessive runoff is in place
for the entire area from WPC. A `Slight Risk` is in place across the
southeastern portion of the forecast area.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure approaching and then crossing the region Friday into
the weekend will bring a round of mostly dry and fair weather. The
only caveat to this is a trough axis crossing the region on Friday
may bring a few quick passing showers.

Temperatures will cool a few degrees on Friday and Saturday behind
the passing cold front on Thursday night, but warmer temperatures
and increasing humidity will return for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for most of the TAF period with
high clouds moving through this afternoon and into this
evening. There could be some patchy fog development once again,
especially at ELM late tonight into Thursday morning. There is
potential for showers and thunderstorms to move through tomorrow
afternoon, but confidence on timing and location is uncertain
at this time.

Otherwise surface winds will be mainly southeast to southwest
(or variable) less than about 7 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday morning...Mainly VFR, restrictions possible with
morning fog.

Thursday Afternoon through Friday morning...Potential
restrictions with an incoming frontal system bringing showers
and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe, with
gusty erratic winds and hail.

Friday Night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday... Restrictions possible as a low pressure system moves
north of the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJW
AVIATION...ES/MJM