Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

940
FXUS61 KBGM 260110
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
910 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected tonight.
A strong cold front moves through on Saturday with falling
afternoon temperatures, scattered rain showers, and perhaps a
few thunderstorms. After a cool day on Sunday, warmer weather
returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
910 PM Update:

First batch of showers is exiting the area a bit quicker than
previously forecasted, so made some adjustments to PoPs for the
next few hours (lowered PoPs for most areas). By midnight, the
second batch of showers is expected to move into the area, so
PoPs remain at likely-categorical after that time. An embedded
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out after midnight as well.

650 PM Update:

Main adjustment with this update was to remove mention of
thunder until later this evening/closer to midnight. There are
currently no thunderstorms near our area, with the nearest
lightning strikes being detected across Western PA. This batch
of showers and thunderstorms moves through our area late this
evening and it is possible that enough elevated instability may
be present to have a few embedded thunderstorms occur from that
batch. Otherwise, only some minor tweaks were made to the
forecast with this update and the previous discussion remains
valid.

235 PM Update...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms have developed in the
Finger Lakes region along a warm front lifting north. These will
mainly affect CNY and northward as the Southern Tier and
Southward are still pretty stable under subsidence from a ridge
overhead and lower dew points. Tonight, as a deepening low
passes through the Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence River
Valley, better lift will spark off more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts may approach an inch with most
of the region seeing closer to a quarter to half inch of
rainfall.

Saturday morning, a cold front moves through, but recent trends
have been a little slower with bringing the front into the
area. With the potential for some breaks of sun in the clouds
once the precipitation moves east, some instability will be able
to develop. Storms that fire along the front may contain some
stronger wind gusts as there is strong winds aloft that could
mix down. With the low continuing to deepen as it moves into New
England and high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region,
the pressure gradient tightens with winds increasing behind the
front in the afternoon. Winds will be gusty with deeper mixing
as cold air advection steepens the low level lapse rates. 850 mb
winds top out around 40 mph so gusts should get into the 25 to
35 mph range. Light rain showers and drizzle wrap around the low
in the afternoon and overnight.

Its getting late in the year to get snow but there could be a
few high elevation snow flakes tonight as 850 mb temperatures
fall to around -3C. Higher wet bulb temperatures and winds will
keep all rain in wrap around precipitation at elevations below
roughly 2000 feet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
2 PM Update

Upper level low pressure will be centered near the Northeast
Kingdom early Sunday morning, but will continue to push eastward
and out into the Gulf of Maine by Sunday afternoon. Sunday
morning will likely start off dreary, with light rain and
drizzle across Central NY and into the Catskills. High pressure
and ridging aloft will be building into the region Sunday
afternoon with clearing skies from west to east. Still looking
at a cool and breezy day with a tight pressure gradient between
the exiting low and building high. Winds on Sunday, will be out
of the NW at 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph at
times.

High pressure will be overhead on Monday with a warm and dry day
expected and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A this time,
not thinking there will be any fire weather concerns, but this
will be dependent on the amount of rainfall we see over the
weekend. High pressure remains in control Monday night with
just a few clouds around and light south winds and lows in the
40s for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
210 PM Update

Warm SW return flow over the area on Tuesday out ahead of an
approaching cold front. There still remain a good deal of
uncertainty on the exact timing of the front, and if the front
arrives in the late afternoon hours around peak heating, then
plenty of instability will be available for potential
thunderstorms. SPC has all of Central NY and parts of NE PA in
a Day 5 15% Severe outlook for this timeframe, but as mentioned,
this will be dependent on the actual timing of the front.

By Wednesday, high pressure builds back into the region behind
the front. This will keep the area dry Wednesday into Thursday
night with seasonably mild temperatures. Beyond midweek, there
remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, however the
pattern looks like it will remain quite active. Most ensembles
and deterministic models are showing troughing over the
Northeast next Friday, so there is a greater potential for
unsettled conditions as we end the work week and head into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through most of this evening,
but by midnight, or shortly afterwards, steadier rain showers
and lowering ceilings will begin to produce widespread MVFR
restrictions, and possibly IFR ceilings by late tonight/early
Saturday morning. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
tonight, but confidence is not high enough to include in the
TAFs.

The steadiest rain moves east Saturday morning, but some
isolated showers and thunderstorms are also possible during the
afternoon. Ceilings will gradually become MVFR and possibly even
VFR (especially at KAVP) by the afternoon, but brief additional
restrictions are possible during the afternoon from any steadier
shower or thunderstorm.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday morning...Lingering ceiling
restrictions possible along with a few scattered showers.

Sunday afternoon...Becoming mainly VFR.

Sunday night through Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Potential for afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJG
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...BJG