Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

303
FXUS61 KBGM 011824
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
124 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lake effect snow warning issued for Onondaga and northern Oneida
counties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake effect snow showers develop tonight and last into
Saturday for portions of the area. Sharp cutoff with snowfall
totals.

2) A few weak disturbances move through the area next week,
still uncertainity with timing, coverage and precipitation type.

3) Temperatures rise above freezing by the middle of next week.
A gradual melting of SWE currently expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

West to northwest flow off of Lake Ontario is expected to result
in the formation of numerous lake effect snow showers that
stretch into western Oneida county tonight then expand south
into portions of Madison and Onondaga counties on Friday. Most
of the snowfall looks to be light to moderate. However, soundings
show favorable snow growth and lift leading to the potential
for ratios of around 20:1. So the confidence in amounts over 7
inches has increased for far northern Onondaga county and
western Oneida county with a very sharp cutoff in snow
accumulations.

Further south and east, the snow showers do look
to last long enough in Madison and southern Oneida county for a
few inches of snow. Advisories may be needed if confidence
increases for 4 inches or more of snow Friday afternoon into
Saturday morning. The forecasted totals are largely unchanged
but do incorporate the RGEM, RRFS and local research which are a
little more hesitant to sink the main band of snow showers
further south.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The first in a series of weak disturbances looks to move through
Saturday night and Sunday. This feature has limited moisture but
high snow ratios in an arctic airmass could lead to an inch or
two of fluff in portions of CNY.

Another disturbance currently favored to track over CNY looks
to bring another round of fluffy but light snow Monday afternoon
and evening. However, uncertainity is present if this feature
will be strong enough as it runs into a strong high pressure
system.

A third disturbance Tuesday night into Wednesday looks to
feature light mixed precipitation. An early indication does show
an environment potentially supporting light freezing rain
Tuesday night with temperatures warming Wednesday with a change
to rain showers.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

We are forecasting the potential for a January thaw to start
Wednesday and Thursday. Currently, daytime temperatures look to
get several degrees above freezing but not warm enough to where
snow melt would be rapid.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers are expected to continue producing IFR
to LIFR visibility restrictions at SYR before winds shift west-
southwesterly and push the lake effect farther north and IFR
restrictions shift to RME this evening and overnight. While
there is still some uncertainty, guidance does suggest this more
pronounced lake effect snow dips back south after 12Z tomorrow
and can move back into SYR with additional IFR restrictions.

ITH is expected to be mainly MVFR with the lake effect clouds
currently around from the northwest flow, but as the winds
shift, there can continue to be ceiling restrictions from the
lake effect off of Lake Erie instead. There is also a low chance
of snow showers overnight and into tomorrow from the Lake Erie
activity. ELM and BGM are expected to be mainly VFR this
evening. There can be some MVFR cigs that reach the terminals,
especially later in the period as winds start to become more due
westerly and the moisture from Lake Erie sinks a bit farther
south. AVP looks to be mainly VFR during the forecast period.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday...Restrictions possible as lake effect
snow showers are expected to continue, mainly for the CNY
terminals.

Monday...Another potential clipper can bring additional snow
showers.

Tuesday...A low chance of rain/snow showers and possible
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ009.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for NYZ018.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...DK