Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

773
FXUS61 KBGM 292303
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
703 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast. Chance of rain
showers and thunderstorms were increased slightly for this
afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
area this afternoon as a nearly stationary low pressure system
remains nearby. Isolated showers will also be possible east of
Interstate 81 Thursday afternoon.

2) Drier and warmer conditions are expected Friday through
Saturday. Then another low pressure system will likely bring
additional rainfall to the area on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level low continues to spin just east of the area
across the Hudson Valley and Catskills. In fact, the low is
retrograding a bit to the west, which has allowed showers and
thunderstorms to pivot back into the area, especially across
Central NY. These showers and thunderstorms will produce brief
heavy downpours and may result in localized poor drainage/urban
flooding. Flash flooding is unlikely, but cannot be completely
ruled out if thunderstorms were to train over the same areas.
Fortunately the axis of heavier rainfall is west of the hardest
hit areas from yesterday/last night (Sullivan and Delaware
counties). However, we will need to watch those counties closely
as it won`t take much additional rainfall to cause renewed
flooding issues.

Scattered showers will continue overnight and into Thursday as
the low pressure system slowly drifts east. That being said, the
threat for locally heavy rainfall will be diminishing
significantly.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The above mentioned low pressure system will finally move far
enough east of the region to keep conditions dry on Friday as
surface high pressure and weak upper level ridging moves in.
This will result in much-needed dry weather for Friday and
Saturday. With the weak ridging and sunshine, temperatures will
be warmer with highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

The second half of the weekend become a bit more uncertain. A weak
surface low pressure will develop over the lower Mississippi River
Valley Saturday and it drifts eastward. With high pressure over the
Atlantic and this low near the Ohio River Valley, flow around these
systems will advect moisture northward leading to showers developing
Sunday. A frontal system then passes through late Sunday into Monday
keeping rain around early next week. Model guidance diverge on what
happens after the front moves through. Solutions like the ECMWF keep
an upper level low present and the high pressure closer to the coast
with rain showers on Tuesday. Other solutions like the GFS have a
trough and dry northwest flow over the region. Given the
uncertainty, chances for showers are forecasted Sunday through
Tuesday with the highest chances on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Large rotating area of low pressure in the Northeast US will
allow the persistent rain to remain over the region through the
next 3 to 6 hours at least. Reduced vsbys and ceilings in the
rain will continue with lingering fuel alt req cigs and MVFR
vsbys in light fog through the rest of the morning and gradual
lifting to MVFR/VFR after 18Z Thursday. Winds will remain steady
out of the north/nw with occasional gusts 10 to 20 kt through
the next 24 hours.

Outlook:

Thursday night...Low clouds and patchy fog possible.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR; low chance of a shower or
thunderstorm.

Sunday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJG/BTL
AVIATION...BJG/BJT