Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

039
FXUS61 KBGM 041033
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
633 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms today along with shower
coverage early next week. High temperatures lowered early next
week given clouds and rainfall. Heat advisory issued for the
Wyoming Valley for this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another round of thunderstorms likely to develop and move
through the region this afternoon and evening.

2) Hot and humid conditions expected once again today.

3) An area of low pressure moves slowly through the region
early next week bringing widespread rain with locally heavy
downpours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold frontal boundary will move into the region today. Several
clusters of showers and thunderstorms should develop once again
ahead of the front given the hot and humid airmass. Sounding
profiles point to ample amounts of instability and modest shear
indicating the potential for gusty to locally damaging winds
with this round of thunderstorms as well. Timing looks to be
similar or slightly earlier than yesterday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures today are dependent on the thunderstorm coverage
and resulting cloud cover. Blended in the Consall too help
offset the continued NBM warm bias with afternoon highs. Still
the combination of the heat and humidity may nudge peak heat
index values to around 100 degrees in the Wyoming Valley this
afternoon. Given the passage of the cold front this looks to be
the last day of heat headlines.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Moisture will overrun the cold front later Sunday into early
Tuesday. Enough lift looks to be present with a low tracking to
our south to bring several additional rounds of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. PW values increase to almost 2 inches
with tall skinny CAPE profiles indicative of heavy rainfall
potential. The ECMWF ensemble members are fairly bullish with
localized pockets of 3-5 inches of rain. However, other ensemble
guidance is not as aggressive with most places seeing closer to
an inch of rain. Continued to trend the daytime temperatures
cooler given the clouds and rain with Consall continuing to
have a much better handle of the setup than the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected this morning ahead of a cold front.
A few showers are already beginning to move into the region
this morning. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop later this morning lasting into the
afternoon and evening hours. Coverage, timing and the locations
impacted remain somewhat uncertain, but mainly expecting 16-22Z
for Central NY terminals and 20-24Z for AVP. Overall light and
variable winds will shift northwest this afternoon with gusts
under 10 knots, with exception to thunderstorms that develop.

Outlook:

Saturday night through Sunday...Mostly VFR, chances for
additional showers and thunderstorms with restrictions.

Sunday Night through Monday...Restrictions possible due to
widespread showers and afternoon isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a low chance for showers, mainly at
ELM, BGM, and AVP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for PAZ044-047.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...ES