Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

725
FXUS61 KBGM 290315
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1015 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dense Fog Advisory was just issued for Poconos to Catskills for
overnight-early Monday.

Winter Weather Advisory continues for freezing rain in most
counties, though temperatures are creeping up especially west of
I-81 so it is possible some of those counties could be lifted
early. Ice amounts increased in northeastern half of Oneida
County, with up to 4 tenths of an inch.

Wind Advisory start time was backed up to 10 AM because of a
faster ramp up to winds, and also associated impacts may start
earlier due to the weight of prior ice on trees.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Freezing rain expected overnight across much of central NY
and northeast PA. Areas of fog as well, especially Poconos to
Catskills where it will be dense in the higher terrain.

2) Strong cold front Monday midday through afternoon with
strong winds behind the front Monday through Tuesday.

3) A prolonged lake effect snow event is expected from Monday night
into midweek across north central NY. Increasing winds will
lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow, with periods of
reduced visibility.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Freezing rain continues across Central New York to Twin Tiers,
though many valleys are now getting above freezing as of 10 PM.
At least spotty freezing rain can be found in the Wyoming
Valley to Poconos.

Strong low-level jet at 850 mb is transporting significant
moisture into a warm advection pattern leading to widespread
stratiform precipitation. South of NC NY, mainly south of I-90,
precipitation will be lighter, though still with a light glaze
of ice for untreated surfaces. The exceptions are Oneida county
where colder air remains in place leading to around one quarter
inch of ice, and east of Interstate 81 in the higher terrain,
cold air hangs long enough for perhaps up to a couple tenths of
an inch of ice.

Across the northern Finger Lakes where there was downsloping,
and even Elmira temperatures have climbed to mid 30s and we are
expecting little if any additional freezing rain there, but
higher terrain still at least spotty freezing rain. Winter
weather advisories thus remain in effect most counties in
central NY and northeast PA. Main impact will be travel.
Temperatures will warm above freezing from west to east
overnight and change all the freezing rain to rain. We may be
able to drop winter weather advisories from the southern Finger
Lakes and points west sooner than advertised. All this
precipitation changes to plain rain between midnight and 7 am as
850 mb temperatures aloft climb to around 10C! Rain will
eventually drag down warmer and moister air and warm the
boundary layer.

With the mild moist air pressing over cold snowpack overnight,
areas of fog can be expected to form in higher terrain. It will
likely be locally dense for the Poconos to Catskills, with
visibility down to a quarter mile, so a Dense Fog Advisory has
been issued overnight into Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
As the deep low progresses into the St. Lawrence River Valley
in Southern Canada, a strong cold front moves through later in
the day Monday. 850 mb winds behind the front increase to near
50 knots with steep low level lapse rates. Wind Advisory timing
was backed up to 10 AM, because impacts may start sooner
considering the weight of prior ice on trees, and also timing
trending earlier for the ramping up of winds. That said,
strongest winds will definitely be in the afternoon to early
evening, and general gustiness will continue through Tuesday.
Forecast soundings in BUFKIT show some top of boundary layer
winds approaching 60 knots. Wind gusts were raised closer to the
NBM 90th percentile to match closer to the potential max wind
gusts in BUFKIT. Light wrap around snow coupled with the
increasing winds will likely lead to areas of blowing snow,
especially in the farm country of the Finger Lakes.


KEY MESSAGE 3...
An upper level low will pass north of the region Monday night,
with westerly flow transitioning to northwesterly flow as the
system continues to rotate. This will advect increasingly cold
air into the region, with 850 mb temperatures falling to between
-10 to -15 degrees C while lake surface temperatures remain
around 4 to 6 degrees C. As northwest flow becomes established
and persists, multi- lake connection is likely for much of the
week beginning Monday night. Embedded shortwaves rotating around
the upper low will periodically move through the region,
impacting band orientation and organization and enhancing
snowfall rates downstream of the lakes.

Model sounding indicate favorable moisture depth through the
dendritic growth zone, especially across north central NY. Snowfall
accumulation within the primary lake effect band are expected to
range from 7 to 14 inches, with 3 to 6 inches possible south of the
main band. Strong winds will accompany this event, increasing Monday
afternoon and continuing into Tuesday afternoon. Areas of fresh
snowfall will experience blowing and drifting snow, leading to
locally reduced visibilities and occasional whiteout
conditions.

Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for lake effect snow for
Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida counties. This approach was used
instead of Lake Effect Snow Warning due to the added impacts of
gusty winds and blowing snow. Winter Weather Advisories have
been issued south of the Warning area for S. Cayuga, Cortland,
Chenango, and Otsego counties.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions have overspread the area as rain and freezing rain
also moved in from incoming system. KELM-KITH were already warm
enough for plain rain at 00Z but the other terminals will take
some time to change from freezing rain to rain. This strong
system will cause rapidly increasing south-southwest flow just
off the surface overnight into early Monday with resultant low
level wind shear as a cold front approaches. Surface winds will
then veer abruptly from southeast to gusty southwest to west as
the cold front blasts through. Though ceilings will then lift
into MVFR or even VFR Monday, peak gusts will easily climb into
30s knot range and perhaps even a few 40 knot gusts. KSYR will
start to sneak in towards KSYR 21Z Monday-00Z Tuesday, but the
more restrictive snow/blowing snow will wait until after.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday night...Much colder with continued
gusty winds and restrictive lake effect snow showers,
especially KSYR-KRME but at least occasionally the other NY
terminals. KSYR-KRME may have combination of heavy snow and
blowing snow at times, with below 1 mile visibility.

Wednesday...Lingering lake effect clouds and snow showers for
mainly the NY terminals, but cannot rule out some showers making
it south to KAVP.

Thursday through Friday...Restrictions possible behind a cold
front that brings snow showers to the region. Limited to mainly
KSYR-KRME by Friday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for PAZ040-044-047-
     048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ009-036-
     037-046.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
     for NYZ009-018-036-037.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
     for NYZ017-044>046.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ018-
     022>025-044-045-055>057-062.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJN/ES/MDP
AVIATION...MDP