Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

855
FXUS61 KBGM 170622
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
222 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Significantly lowered shower and thunderstorm chances for
Thursday afternoon across northeast Pennsylvania, as very dry
air pushes in after a morning wave pushes through. Also,
increased wind gusts across the entire area Thursday morning
through the afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An upper level trough will bring rounds of showers and
storms today, especially east of the I81 corridor.

2) Frontal system will push through the region tomorrow with
more chances for showers and thunderstorms. Greatest chance for
widespread showers and storms will be during the morning, with
higher chances across north central NY during the afternoon.

3) High pressure pushes in on Friday with cooler and drier
conditions through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak short wave will cross the region early this morning with
a few showers and possibly some embedded thunder. There should
be a lull in shower activity until early this afternoon before
another weak wave pushes in this afternoon. There will be some
instability available this afternoon, but with only a few hours
of sun it will be limited. Current model soundings are showing
MLCAPE at 400-500 J/kg. This still should be enough for at least
a few thunderstorms this afternoon and early this evening,
especially east of the I81 corridor. However, shower activity
will quickly dissipate around sunset as the wave pushes east.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There will likely be a lull for few hours tonight between an
exiting wave and a warm front pushing in from the west-southwest
late tonight. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the
warm front move in late tonight through Thursday morning. These
showers and storms could be from a remnant MCS that pushes
across Michigan this evening. Either way, the timing of this
feature in our region is not good for severe thunderstorm
potential on Thursday. After these morning showers and storms
push through, a dry slot pushes in, with very dry air from the
Southern Tier southward showing up on NAM and GFS forecast
soundings Thursday afternoon. Model soundings show a well mixed
boundary layer and very dry air with inverted V in the lower 5K
ft. This and a tightening thickness gradient just out ahead of
an approaching cold front will likely produce gusty winds from
late Thursday morning through early afternoon. Wind gusts up to
50 mph will be possible and would be locally higher across
areas of complex terrain, but confidence at this time is too low
for a wind advisory. As for the severe thunderstorm threat, the
timing of convection in the morning and then the arrival of a
dry slot will limit shower and thunderstorm activity in the
afternoon and the suggestion was made to SPC for a removal of
the Slight Risk from our southern CWA. Although, further north,
weak instability will still be available in the afternoon and
with the strong winds fields, could certainly see some potential
for a few severe thunderstorms across Central NY.

Winds diminish Thursday night as cooler air filters in behind
the front, with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 50s.

Key Message 3...

Surface high pressure will build in behind the cold front for
Friday. This will bring drier and cooler conditions through the
weekend with low humidity. However, there will remain some
upper troughing over the region, so can`t rule out some diurnal
shower and thunderstorm activity around the peak heating hours
of the afternoon. The next chance for widespread rain will come
towards the beginning of next week, but any thunderstorm
potential with this next system is uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the
early morning hours. A trough of low pressure moving in from
the west will butt up against the ridge departing to the east,
keeping winds mostly active through daybreak. These active low
level winds should be strong enough to prevent fog from forming
and keep conditions VFR.

Rain showers will move into the area later today, with most
model guidance now showing scattered showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm moving through during the afternoon hours;
mainly in the 19z to 23z timeframe.

Outside of any showers or thunderstorms it is forecast to remain
VFR through the day and into tonight, with SCT to BKN cloud
decks between 070-150 ft agl expected. With the scattered
showers or isolated thunderstorms brief restrictions are
certainly possible, especially visibility. At this time
confidence on timing, coverage and placement was not high enough
to include any TSRA in the tafs; covered the potential with
-shra and VCSH instead.

Winds will be light southeasterly overnight around 5 kts,
turning southwest later today between 6-12 kts, with a few
higher gusts possible at times. Winds turn back to southeasterly
tonight, under 10 kts through the end of this taf period.

Outlook:

Thursday and Thursday night... Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms likely. Very breezy, southwest winds become
westerly. Timing still uncertain with restrictions and wind
shifts. Low Level Wind Shear possible in the morning.

Friday through Sunday...Possible intermittent restrictions from
scattered showers; breezy with westerly wind gusts each
afternoon.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPK
AVIATION...KL/MJM