Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

986
FXUS61 KBGM 301033
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
633 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing. Heat headlines remain and the concern
about severe weather and flash flooding potential continues.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity becomes unhealthy and dangerous in some areas
for the rest of this week.

2) Several rounds of scattered thunderstorms may occur mainly over
Central New York into next weekend. Severe weather and locally heavy
rainfall and flooding will be possible within the favorable warm and
humid conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

No significant changes to the guidance are noted with heat still
expected to increase within a building thermal ridge this week.
Temperatures in the 90s with oppressive upper 60s to mid-70s
dewpoints remain on target with little variance to the ensemble
statistics thus confidence in the event is high. We start with
marginally dangerous heat indices today (Tuesday) and will continue
the heat advisory as previously advertised. Peak performance of the
heat/humidity combo looks to be from Weds-Thurs with enough of the
sensitive demographic areas (cities and deep valleys) still within
the crosshairs of extreme heat criteria (HI greater than 104 F).
There are several caveats that could prevent high temperatures from
reaching their fullest advertised potential. Dew point temperatures
could mix lower during afternoons dropping the HI and convective
activity could trim temperatures during the peak hours. We still
have some time before carving out the patchwork of future advisories
and warnings, so let`s get today`s under our belt. The heat watch
will remain in place for now.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Very tricky weather pattern over the coming days as we will be close
to the periphery of the upper ridge. Depending on how strong and
amplified the ridge becomes will determine our fate for thunderstorm
chances this week. Right now SPC has our far north in a Slight Risk
for Tuesday into Wednesday with Marginal extending to the southwest.
Surface based CAPE values are well outside the norm for the
Northeast over the next couple days and shear is sufficient to
develop and maintain severe weather. Excessive rainfall is also
possible with diffluent thickness fields over our area angling back
toward the moisture axis surging in from the Ohio Valley. Upstream
MCS turning through the Great Lakes over the ridge could easily
propagate south into our part of NY. Due to the extreme instability
for this region, even lasting into the nighttime hours, the
potential for a long lasting MCS or Derecho exists for somewhere in
the Northeast U.S. in the coming days, but at this time, it is not
possible to pin down timing or location, but this will be something
to monitor.

Triggers for storms are tough to pin down if they even reach our
area or scoot off into New England as several models suggest the
driving shortwaves will do. There will be a sufficient warm layer
aloft as noted by 700 mb temps rising to around 12C and forecast
soundings showing minor inversions around 850 mb through the period,
so we really will need triggers to touch off more than isolated to
scattered storms.

Forecasters will be monitoring upstream thunderstorm complexes over
the coming days and confidence will increase for severe weather if
we start seeing a long live MCS pushing across southern Ontario,
Canada...Stay tuned.

Some relief appears on the horizon after Thursday as the flow aloft
turns more westerly and then pivots into more of a flat trough for
the weekend which should bring increased cloud cover, some cooling
and more unsettled showery conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions across the area today as a strong high pressure
system will be in control of the weather pattern.

A shortwave trough is modeled to ripple through the edge of the
high, bringing a chance for thunderstorms across portions of
the area, especially east of I-81, late this morning into the
afternoon hours. Model guidance remains uncertain as to timing
and location of the storms, so the highest confidence we can
exude in the TAFs is a PROB30 group for TSRA at SYR and RME.
Storms may pop up across other portions of the area, but
confidence in their development remains too low to include at
any of the other TAF sites.

Guidance is starting to hint at the possibility of some patchy
fog and MVFR or lower restrictions at ELM/ITH/RME, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook:

Wednesday through Saturday...Mostly VFR, but intermittent
restrictions will be possible with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Current High Temperature Records:

6/30: BGM - 92 (1964), SYR - 94 (1971), AVP - 97 (1964)
7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018)
7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

Forecasts for 7/1 and 7/2 are at or near the daily records.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday
     evening for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday
     evening for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAB
AVIATION...JTC
CLIMATE...MDP