Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

913
FXUS61 KBGM 090542
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
142 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing significant with this update. Low RH and breezy south
winds gusting around 30 mph today will sustain our concern for
favorable fire weather conditions today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will maintain dry weather through Friday morning.
Temperatures will continue to warm over the next 48 hours.

2) A cold front with limited moisture will pass through on Friday,
with rain showers and slightly cooler temperatures for Saturday.
Conditions warm back up for the second half of the weekend and
into next week.

3) A trend toward warmer and more unsettled conditions develop
toward the middle of next week, but at this time, chances for
significant and hazardous weather appears low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure moves east today with low pressure passing to
our northwest over southern Ontario. The pressure gradient between
the two tightens up with south winds responding in kind by
increasing 10-20 mph with gusts around 30 mph especially at higher
elevations and south-north tracking valleys. The gusts could be
higher given the overall pattern, however, forecast soundings show a
strong subsidence inversion below 850 mb limiting the mixed layer
beneath the strongest corridor of winds. Warmer temperatures and
limited moisture return will keep relative humidity values low today
resulting in marginally favorable fire weather conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cold front will move through the region on Friday, which will
bring rain showers to the area, particularly during the afternoon.
Rain totals should be manageable with amounts mainly less than 0.25"
(perhaps up to 0.50" for the Mohawk Valley).

The relatively weak cold front front will bring cooler temperatures
to the area on Saturday (highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s), but
this will be short-lived as a southerly return flow comes back on
Sunday and persists into next week. Highs on Sunday are expected to
be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The overall pattern features a trough in the Southwest with a more
zonal flow expected over the Northeast. This will keep us mainly
south of the prevailing jet and gradually warming through Wednesday.
Widespread 70s are expected on Monday and Tuesday. Some of the usual
warmer spots (the valleys and the lake plain areas) could even reach
80 degrees by Tuesday. Similar conditions are expected Wednesday but
the uncertainty increases as a frontal boundary lurking to our north
has a variety of positions suggested by the models going into
Thursday. There are a few minor upper level waves forecast to
traverse along the northern NY border from Monday-Thursday which may
bring scattered showers at times especially for the counties along
the Thruway...with progressively less chance for rain further south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure is in place with VFR conditions expected over the
next 24 hours. LLWS is close enough to include in most CNY
terminals besides BGM where the surface winds remain elevated
overnight. A cold front approaches from the NW near 6Z which
could lead to a near MVFR cig deck moving in to CNY but that
should hold off until after 6Z.

Outlook:

Thursday night through Friday morning...VFR conditions.

Friday afternoon through Friday night...A front will dip into
the region with a chance of rain showers and associated
restrictions, especially the NY terminals.

Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday... Frontal system approaches the region with restrictions
possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The combination of dry fine fuels, southerly wind gusts of to 20
to 30 mph, and relative humidity values as low as 20 to 35
percent will contribute to an elevated risk for fire spread
on Thursday for the Leatherstocking Region in Central New York
and Northeast PA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ208.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAB
AVIATION...AJG
FIRE WEATHER...BJG