Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

993
FXUS61 KBGM 310601
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
201 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Flood Watch has been expanded to include all of Central NY and
the Southern Tier through Wednesday evening. Otherwise, no
significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Thunderstorms and locally heavy rain will bring the
potential for flash flooding and likely some minor river
flooding through Wednesday and possibly into Thursday.

2) Above normal temperatures are expected through the entire
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A stationary front will remain parked over the region through at
least Wednesday and possibly into Thursday. This will bring a
long duration moderate to heavy rainfall to the region. Thus, a
flood watch is now out for all of our NY Counties except
Sullivan County at this time.

A very juicy atmosphere will remain in place for the next couple
of days with PWATs running about 2 standard deviations above
normal for this time of year. Also, strong mid level lapse
rates are expected to increase over 7C/km by early this
morning, however the lower levels will likely remain stable.
Forecast model soundings are showing more instability than last
nights runs, with potential for over 1000 J/kg west of the I81
corridor and about 300-500 J/kg across the eastern half of the
region. Whether or not enough instability will build will be
dependent on cloud cover this afternoon and the timing of when
morning showers and thunderstorms dissipate. A long lull and
more clearing in the clouds will be most likely across our
western counties. The eastern half of the region should hold
onto morning rain showers and clouds later into the morning and
this would keep the environment more stable. Even so, a line of
heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight could still bring some gusty winds to the area. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out due to the strong winds
aloft.

The main concern with multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms possible in the coming days will be the flooding
and flash flooding potential.

Models show the front barely making it into southern PA or the
northern Mid- Atlantic by Wednesday evening before it lifts back
north a warm front on Thursday. This will bring another round
of rain and showers to the area through Thursday night...with
yet more rain potential on Friday as the center of the low and
eventual cold front press through the area. The latest guidance
continues to show the cold front stalling out as it approaches
the Mid- Atlantic states due to a strong Bermuda High off the
coast. This will open the door for a third system to bring more
rain over the coming weekend. Behind this weekend system, a
stronger front will should clear out the moisture for a while by
the end of the weekend.

There are a lot of variables associated with each of these systems,
however the simple fact that each system may stack more and more
water across our increasingly sensitive watersheds lends careful
watching.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A nearly continuous warm, moist southerly flow will result in
above normal temperatures for the entire week. Highs on Tuesday
and Wednesday will likely be in the 60s to lower 70s. Somewhat
"cooler" temperatures are expected on Wednesday and Thursday
behind a shallow cold front, but temperatures will still be
above normal (highs in the lower 50s to to upper 60s). A return
to a warm, moist southerly flow will result in temperatures
rising once again to the 60s and 70s for Friday and right
through the weekend, but more rain is looking likely with a
frontal system pushing through on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A few waves of rain showers are expected to move across the
area through the TAF period with the first round currently
moving through. These showers can produce occasional MVFR to
perhaps brief IFR visby through about 12Z. Every once in awhile
there is a lightning strike or two recorded, but confidence in
where any thunderstorm may be embedded over the next several
hours is very low, so it was not included in the TAF at this
time.

Closer to 12Z, the CAMs are picking up on a heavier line of
showers around SYR and RME that is expected to sag south toward
the Southern Tier through the morning hours. If this does
develop, a mix of MVFR/IFR restrictions is expected, especially
with regards to visibility.

A short lull in showers is expected early this afternoon before
convection increases again later in the day and into the
evening with an approaching cold front. Again there can be some
embedded thunderstorms, especially after 20Z through about 04Z
Wednesday.

Borderline LLWS of 35 knots out of the WSW is expected at the
NY terminals through about 12-15Z this morning.

Outlook:

Tonight through Thursday...a chance of rain showers and
associated occasional restrictions possible. Thunder possible
each afternoon.

Friday through Saturday...Scattered rain showers and low chance
for afternoon thunderstorms; associated occasional restrictions
possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Wednesday
     evening for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...DK