Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

960
FXUS61 KBGM 181841
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
141 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold front has slowed slightly Friday morning with frontal
passage not expected until after 7 AM for much of the region.
Lake effect snow accumulation behind the front was increased
slightly along and north of I-90 Friday afternoon into Saturday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Strong frontal passage Friday morning with high winds and
  potential QLCS, lake effect snow Friday afternoon into
  Saturday morning.

- 2) Rising rivers with moving ice likely through Sunday. Ice
  jam risk increasing, but not definite.

- 3) Zonal flow with clipper systems bringing light
  precipitation Christmas Week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Strong frontal passage Friday morning with high winds and
potential QLCS, lake effect snow Friday afternoon into Saturday
morning.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A negatively tilted trough passing through along with a strong
low pressure system passing through the Great Lakes region
tonight into tomorrow brings widespread rain and strong winds.
Forecast soundings show wind speeds at 850 mb approaching 70 mph
tonight into tomorrow out of the SW ahead of the front. Right
now, there is an inversion below the strong winds so that will
reduce how much winds mix down but gusts to 50 mph are likely at
higher elevations across NY and PA. Valleys may be a bit more
sheltered overnight so winds look to be more in the 30 to 40 mph
range.

The cold front moves through between 7am and 10am for NY and
PA. Looking at current conditions along the front in Illinois
into Wisconsin, there is a well developed QLCS with damaging
wind gusts and this QLCS has potential to hold together
overnight as it approaches our area. Given the lack of surface
instability ahead of the line with the early morning passage and
low level inversion in place, spin ups are not anticipated but
just behind the line, the strong winds aloft will have a brief
window to mix down to the surface with isolated 55+ mph gusts.

Once the front is through, temperatures are expected to fall
all day with Fridays high temperature likely occurring early in
the morning. Temperatures will be back below freezing by the
afternoon with a brief change over from rain to snow right
before the precipitation ends but little to no snow accumulation
is expected.

Lake effect snow develops several hours after the front moves
through once 850 mb fall below -10C in the mod afternoon. Winds
aloft will be more westerly to slightly WSW keeping the main
band of snow north of Northern Oneida county Friday afternoon.
Overnight Friday with the low progressing east, winds shift
more northwesterly dropping the band into Oneida county. High
pressure is already starting to build in with a subsidence
inversion lowering through Friday night so the snow band should
weaken as it moves into Oneida with sub advisory snow
accumulations. Trends in todays runs have been to a slower
decent of the subsidence inversion

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Rising rivers will increase the possibility for ice jams and
localized flooding through Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Unseasonably mild temperatures and strong winds will deplete
several inches of snow cover, releasing its associated water
equivalent today and tonight. This coupled with rainfall between
1-2 inches falling tonight and Friday will produce enough
runoff within area streams and rivers to cause a significant
increase in flows. Several foot rises in stage will likely be
enough force to break up and dislodge river ice that has formed
over the past few weeks of cold weather. Ice jam potential at
the commonly known areas near river bends and structural
impediments, such as bridges, will increase as a result of the
ice breaking free. It is impossible to determine exactly where
or if an ice jam will form, however, these key factors are
coming together to highlight the potential for jams and the
associated flood risk. A limiting factor to the overall risk of
natural flooding outside of an ice jam is that the river levels
are currently running much below normal and soil moisture around
the region is on the dry side which will help to limit the
effects of significant runoff. Emergency managers and first
responders should prepare to monitor river ice activity at
historically sensitive areas in their districts tonight through
at least Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Zonal flow with clipper systems bringing several chances of
light precipitation Christmas Week.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
250 mb flow becomes mostly zonal through next week with several
quick moving shortwaves. With mostly off shore flow in the SE
US, there is not much moisture return into the Northeast so any
shortwave moving through are not expected to produce much QPF.
They will likely just help enhance lake effect snow with their
passage with any accumulating snow limited to the eastern Finger
Lakes into CNY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
While VFR conditions will persist through most of the daytime hours
today, ceilings will quickly lower from south to north this evening
along with rain moving into the area. Restrictions should be
generally MVFR to Fuel Alternate, but cannot rule out some IFR
ceiling restrictions especially early tomorrow morning.

Winds will range 10 to 15 knots today, with gusts up to 30 knots
possible this afternoon. Overnight, winds strengthen to 10 to 20
knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Low level wind shear is expected to
develop and persist through much of the TAF period, generally
ranging from 35 to 45 knots during the day and increasing to 45
to 55 knots tonight.


Outlook...

Friday...Strong frontal passage with rain showers, possibly
mixing with or ending as snow showers along with associated
restrictions.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night through Sunday night...Scattered snow showers
across Central NY with occasional restrictions possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Low pressure system moves through the area with
restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Saturday for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Saturday for
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...ES