Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

857
FXUS61 KBGM 260113
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
813 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will taper off to patchy drizzle and light rain showers
tonight. It will remain mild into Wednesday, then a cold front
Wednesday night brings colder air, areas of heavy lake effect
snow in western and north central NY, and increasing winds into
the Thanksgiving weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
800 PM Update...
Current water vapor imagery reveals a broad upper level shortwave
trough progressing through the eastern U.S. Analysis suggests
there are several embedded shortwaves rotating through this
feature, providing periods of enhanced lift.

At the surface and lower levels, a robust low-level jet (LLJ) has
been the primary driver of sensible weather. This strong jet
has facilitated significant moisture transport and warm air
advection, resulting in a widespread area of rain across the
forecast area.

As we head into the evening, the core of the low-level jetand
its associated wind speed maximumwill shift east of the region.
As this occurs, the deep layer lift required for steady,
moderate rainfall will become limited. However, forecast
soundings indicate that plenty of low-level moisture will remain
trapped beneath a developing inversion. Consequently, even as
the widespread rain tapers off, we expect low stratus to persist
with areas of drizzle and scattered light showers continuing
through the overnight hours.


Previous Discussion:
A system is currently bringing rain showers into the region
ahead of a warm front from the southwest. Warm air advection
will keep temperatures mild for late November with highs
climbing into the upper 40s to low 50s. Rainfall amounts will be
around a quarter to a half inch from now through overnight
tonight. Overnight temperatures will remain warm, with lows only
in the upper 30s to low 40s.

A trough builds over the Great Lakes heading into Wednesday,
with Central NY and NE PA right in the middle of the warm
sector. Temperatures will be well above average with highs in
the upper 50s to low 60s. Rain chances ramp up from west to east
by the afternoon, along with increasing winds, as the trough
deepens and the associated surface low gets stronger. A cold
front pushes through the area Wednesday evening into Wednesday
night with strong cold air advection behind it. Temperatures
overnight will fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, with any
lingering showers may transition to snow especially over higher
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A non diurnal trend is expected on Thursday as colder air continues
to filter in. By early Thursday morning, 850 mb temperatures
fall to -9C as upper level trough swings into the region, and
with Lake Ontario`s temperatures are around +10C, this will
result in a very favorable set up for lake effect snow showers
with plenty of instability. This set up is expected to be a long
duration event lasting into Friday night with fluctuations in
wind direction off of the lakes. Initially southwesterly flow
will keep most showers north and west of our area on Thursday.
Under southwesterly flow, there will likely be some lake effect
snow showers coming off of Lake Erie may clip western and
northern portions of our forecast area from Steuben County north
and east into portions of the Finger Lakes. At this time, any
snow accumulations on Thursday are expected to be minor, less
than half an inch. Temperatures on Thursday are colder, with
highs in the 30s and west winds increasing between 15-25 mph
with gusts up to 30-40 mph possible with the pressure gradient
pinch.

It isn`t until the trough axis moves through Thursday night
into Friday that winds shift west-northwest. Lake effect bands
are more likely to become organized over the northern portion of
Central NY during this time period. The period of interest has
shifted to early Friday morning, where model guidance is
becoming increasingly consistent with strong band organization
over the I-90 corridor in Onondaga and Madison counties. Taking
a look at model guidance through the atmosphere for early Friday
morning, a few difference models have a bullseye of stronger
upward vertical velocity correlates with the DGZ, which would
produce more intense snowfall. Additionally, temperatures are
quite warm still near the surface, hovering around 32 for lake
effect areas, which will likely lead to most of the snow
production as wetter, more dense snow. With persistent west-
northwest flow and deep moisture in place, lake effect snow
continues all day Friday and likely through Friday night. Watch
remains in effect with no upgrades at this time as there is
uncertainty in where exactly bands will set up. Snowfall amounts
will be highly dependent on where the bands set up and for how
long. Regardless, several inches of snow accumulation may be
possible over our very northern counties. Another hazard to note
with this event are the strong winds expected. Gusts as high as
40 mph will be possible and this will cause drifting of snow
and possibly whiteout conditions in exposed open areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers may linger into Saturday before weak
high pressure builds south of the region. Flow shifts back to
the southwest cutting off any lingering showers. Greater
uncertainty enters the forecast for Sunday into next Monday, as
some warm air advection showers are possible out ahead of a
large weather system that slides east across the southern US.
For now, will stick with NBM PoPs for that period due to the
great uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep moisture and a warm front will keep flying conditions poor across
all terminals through Tuesday morning. Widespread rain and mist
are currently producing MVFR and Fuel Alternate restrictions. A
primary concern for the first 6 hours of the forecast is Low
Level Wind Shear (LLWS) at KSYR, KRME, KELM, and KAVP. A low
level jet of 35-40 knots at 2000 feet is present atop light
surface winds.

As steady rain transitions to drizzle and mist after 06Z, ceilings
will lower further. Widespread IFR conditions are expected,
with LIFR ceilings likely at KBGM, KITH, and KRME due to trapped
moisture beneath the inversion. KSYR and KAVP are expected to
remain generally IFR to low MVFR.

Improvement will be slow Tuesday morning. Ceilings will
gradually lift to MVFR between 14Z and 16Z as mixing increases.
VFR conditions return to the valley terminals including KSYR,
KELM, and KAVP by 18Z. However, KRME and KBGM will likely remain
MVFR with broken ceilings around 2500 feet through the
afternoon. South winds will increase to between 10 and 15 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots possible. A cold front approaches late
in the period, bringing scattered showers back to the region
after 21Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Additional restrictions possible in scattered
rain showers, especially at KSYR, KRME, KITH, and KBGM.

Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered lake
effect snow showers, especially at KRME.

Thursday night through Friday night...Lake effect snow and
associated restrictions likely, especially at KSYR, KRME, and
KITH.

Saturday...Some lingering restrictions possible in lake effect
clouds and flurries, otherwise gradual improvement.

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and
snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for NYZ009-018-036-037.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJN/KL
NEAR TERM...DJN/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...DJN