Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

277
FXUS61 KBGM 220501
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
101 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted cloud cover early this morning as high level cirrus streams
over the area. Frost is still possible, but it should remain rather
patchy even in the advisory areas. Adjusted PoPs to better reflect
model differences as the rain slowly moves in from southwest to
northeast through the day on Saturday. Lowered expected high
temperatures across our far eastern zones Sunday afternoon as
lingering clouds, showers and a cold air damming regime remain in
place here.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) It will be cold with patchy frost early this morning, then partly
sunny and seasonably mild this afternoon.

2) A cool, breezy and wet weekend looks likely. A short dry period
is possible heading into Sunday afternoon for west-central portions
of Northeast PA and Central NY. Chances for showers lingering into
Memorial Day, but a warming trend begins.

3) The weather pattern is looking mainly dry, partly sunny and
warmer Tuesday through Thursday next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Scattered to broken high level cirrus clouds are lingering over the
region early this morning, however there are some clear slots.
Temperatures have fallen to near 40 degrees in the colder valley
locations as of midnight, and should still slide into the low or mid-
30s by daybreak. The frost advisories remain unchanged, but overall
it should be a fairly patchy frost. Temperatures look to warm up
into the mid-60s to low 70s by this afternoon with filtered sunshine
through increasing high clouds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure slides off to the north and east over New England late
tonight into Saturday morning. A low pressure system and frontal
boundary will be approaching from the upper Ohio Valley at the same
time. Rain will begin to overspread the area from southwest to
northeast, reaching the Wyoming Valley and perhaps Bradford county
around or just before daybreak Saturday morning. There were model
discrepancies on just how fast and efficiently the rain would be
able to spread northeast with the dry low level air advecting into
the region on the easterly flow. Took a consensus of the latest
HRRR, RAP, 3km NAM and 12km NAM to give the best forecast timing
for the rain moving in; also collaborated with surrounding offices
to keep things consistent.The NBM PPI01 grids seemed to be
struggling with the differences in the CAMs as it was rather splotchy
and disjointed with the hourly PoPs through the day. The official
forecast shows onset timing of around 5-7 AM from Scranton Wilkes-
Barre northwest to Towanda, Corning and Hornell. The rain should
reach Geneva, Ithaca, Binghamton and Monticello around 9-11 AM. The
northeast progression really slows after this, with the rain
potentially not reaching Syracuse until early afternoon, and
Utica/Rome not until late afternoon. The breezy (10-20 mph, gusts to
30 mph), cool easterly flow will keep temperatures locked in the
upper 40s to low 50s for much of the area...except the I-90 corridor
should reach the lower 60s where the rain holds off much longer.
Southeast winds peak Saturday evening into Saturday night, between
10-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph along the hilltops possible.
Rainfall totals Saturday into Sunday are expected to range from
about 0.50 to 1.25 inches over the region.

Of note, the record low max temperature is 43 degrees at Binghamton
(airport) set back on May 23rd 1963, so we likely will not be able
to break that record. Meanwhile, Avoca`s record low max temperature
is 53 degrees set on May 23rd 1963, and our forecast currently calls
for tying that record. Syracuse will not be close to their record
low max temperature (45 degrees on 5/23/1963) as the forecast is for
61 degrees here.

Sunday features morning showers, which should move east with drier
weather for the afternoon hours, under mostly cloudy skies. Some
cold air damming signal remains over our far eastern Catskill zones
where temperatures will struggle to reach 60. Further west, some
warming takes place with perhaps a few breaks of intermittent
sunshine and temperatures are forecast to reach into the 60s here.

The next fast moving front comes through Sunday night and Monday
morning with showers likely. Once this feature passes by it may once
again dry out Monday afternoon (but uncertainty remains in timing
this far out). Ensemble model guidance is however in good agreement
that despite the lingering clouds and scattered showers temperatures
will see a big warm up Monday, reaching well into the 70s for most
locations.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

For Tuesday through Thursday next week a ridge begins to build over
the Central US while an upper low develops over Quebec. While there
will be surface high pressure in place, this will lead to the
potential for spotty, passing showers dropping down from the north
with systems in the vicinity of our region. Even so, conditions will
be mostly dry during this period. Temperatures will continue the
warming trend with highs in the mid-70s to low 80s each day and
overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for all terminals through the 06Z TAF
period.

Outlook:

Saturday through Saturday night...Widespread rain showers and
associated restrictions.

Sunday through Monday...Lingering scattered rain showers and
associated restrictions possible.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009-017-018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055-057.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...MPK