Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

367
FXUS61 KBGM 271916
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
316 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for nearly all
counties until 9 PM this evening. Locally strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening can produce damaging
winds and hail, but an isolated weak tornado can`t be ruled
out.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms will track across the area into
tonight. Some storms can be severe with damaging wind gusts,
large hail and possibly an isolated weak tornado. Heavy
downpours are also expected and localized flash flooding will be
possible.

2) Mainly dry weather is expected Friday through the weekend as
high pressure builds in.

3) A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
return Monday through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

After the relatively cloudy start to the day, there has been
enough clearing and instability to allow showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon well ahead of an
approaching cold front. Current mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE, 2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, steep low-level lapse
rates, 0-6km bulk shear around 30 knots and some pockets of
0-3km SRH of 100 m2/s2 across the CWA. As a result, some locally
strong to severe storms have developed with damaging winds and
large hail the main concerns. Given a little bit of spin in the
low-levels, an isolated, weak tornado cannot be ruled with any
storm.

The severe storm threat is expected to shift from the Finger
Lakes Region into the Southern Tier, NE PA and the southern
Catskills as the rest of the afternoon/evening progresses. There
is the potential for localized heavy rain with PWATs around
1.40-1.50 inches and some potential training of showers and
storms as well. This does lead to an isolated flash flood risk,
with some storms lining up currently along the southern/eastern
Finger Lakes, and later on this evening in the Catskills and
portions of NE PA.

While the severe threat looks to wane by 9-10PM this evening,
showers an an additional isolated storm are expected to linger
into the overnight before diminishing. The actual cold front
itself is expected to move through tomorrow morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As the cold front continues to push east tomorrow and high
pressure starts to builds in at the surface, the upper level
trough will still be lagging overhead. This can lead to an
isolated shower or two, mainly through midday and across the
higher terrain of CNY before noticeably lower PWATs settle in
and dry conditions are expected the rest of the day and through
the upcoming weekend.

High temperatures tomorrow and Saturday will be mainly in the
mid and upper 70s. Sunday is expected to trend warmer as the
flow becomes more westerly with highs in the upper 70s and lower
80s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A frontal boundary approaching from the north on Monday may
stall out near the area through the first part of next week.
This can lead to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through Wednesday. During this same timeframe, the northern
periphery of a building ridge is also expected to be near or
over the CWA allowing for a few waves of energy embedded in the
flow to move through enhancing the risk for scattered showers
and thunderstorms. High temperatures early next week look to be
mainly in the upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will likely
result in restrictions. 2 hour TEMPO groups for TSRA were
included during the timeframe where thunderstorms are most
likely for each terminal. Amendments may be needed to adjust
timing or to add in lower restrictions.

After the thunderstorm activity ends this evening, widespread
fog/mist is expected to develop, especially across areas that
received rainfall today. Restrictions will gradually dissipate
by the mid-morning on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday through Tuesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible with associated restrictions, especially each
afternoon.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...BJG