Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

823
FXUS61 KBGM 150011
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
711 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold Canadian air continues to filter into the region with lake
effect snow showers expected through Monday. A weak wave of low
pressure drops out of Canada Monday afternoon, with with more
widespread light snow showers. Warmer conditions develop by
midweek with chances for rain increasing on Thursday with an
approaching cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow band is currently unorganized and broken into
multi bands this afternoon across Onondaga county and dropping
southward into central Cayuga. As flow turns more NNW this
afternoon and evening, lake effect snow showers will pick up in
coverage across the Finger Lakes region with T850 dropping to
near -20C and moisture increases on the back side of the
500/700mb low. A well aligned NNW flow continues this evening,
with multiple small lake effect snow bands likely extending
across the Finger Lakes and into the Twin Tiers of NY/PA.
Although QPF will be light, the SLRs are forecast to be very
high and likely above 20:1. Winter weather advisory will remain
in effect through Monday morning for Onondaga and southern
Cayuga, where an additional 2-4 inches will be possible,
further south, the totals will likely be 1 to 2 inches or less
across the Southern Tier.

Finally, arctic air tonight combined with gusty winds will
create wind chill temperatures below zero for most of the area.
A few spots across northern Oneida County and in the Catskills
will see wind chill values near -15F early Monday morning, but
coverage is not enough to warrant a cold weather advisory for
the entire counties. This is also the case across portions of NE
PA, where the higher elevations of the Poconos could see wind
chill values down to -10F overnight into early Monday morning.

Ridging will build in from the southwest Monday morning and the lake
effect snow showers will start to diminish and gradually lift
back north. However, another shortwave moves into the area
Monday afternoon and evening, bringing a period of light warm
air advection snow to most of Central NY and perhaps parts of NE
PA. Minor snow accumulations up to about 1 inch are expected
from this weak weather system. Monday will feature more cold and
below average temperatures as highs only reach into the 20s.
Decided to use NBM 25th percentile for temperatures as the NBM
has a poor handle on the airmass settling over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
After another chilly start on Tuesday, warm air advection will
take hold. Any lake effect will move of our area as flow turns
to the WSW. Morning and early after sunshine looks likely,
however, clouds will increase during the afternoon as a weak
wave / warm front approaches. Temperatures will still be running
below average, with highs in the 20s once again to possibly low
30s in the warmer spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term period will start out fairly dry with weak high
pressure in place midweek. A weak system in Canada will drift
eastward Tuesday night and eventually clip the region Wednesday with
precipitation for north-central NY. With temperatures climbing into
the upper 30s to low 40s and precipitation moving through during the
afternoon, rain will be the main ptype but cooler conditions in
higher elevations may result in more snow or snow mixing in.

A ridge of high pressure then builds into the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. As it does, a low pressure system develops over the
upper Midwest. Strong southerly flow will advect in warm air into
the region. With above average temperatures in place, precipitation
will start out as just rain when as the low tracks to the north late
Thursday. Rain then continues overnight as temperatures remain mild
but a cold front will being to push through early Friday morning. As
it does, precipitation behind the front will become more of a
rain/snow mix or just snow. The front exits the region Friday
afternoon leaving behind some lingering snow showers. With this
event being sensitive to the timing of the front, there does remain
uncertainty with the timing of rain transitioning to snow. Besides
the precipitation, winds will become gusty. Peak gusts Thursday
through Friday morning will likely exceed 30 mph at times. Given the
uncertainties, with this forecast, NBM guidance was favored. Winds
were increased slightly in the Catskills to coordinate better with
neighboring offices.

Behind the late week system, some lake effect snow develops downwind
of Lake Ontario thanks to cool, northwesterly flow. It will be short-
lived though and comes to an end by Saturday morning with the return
of high pressure. Heading into the start of the weekend, a weak low
pressure system will track to the north once again. While there is
some uncertainty on the southern extent of this system, light rain
and snow will be possible for at least some portions of central NY
but possibly for northeastern PA as well.

The second half of this week will be warmer than the first half
though there will be some colder periods as well. Generally,
conditions will be around or above average. Thursday will be the
warmest day with highs in the 40s. Single digits and teens make a
return Friday night into Saturday morning. The only significant
change made to the temperatures this period was for the lows
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The near term through 12Z remains a tricky forecast as lake
effect snow showers continue. Most of the high res. guidance has
the lake effect snow across CNY diminishing around 5Z, but the
northwesterly flow off of Lake Ontario isn`t expected to start
to become more west-northwest and eventually westerly until
around 08-12Z, so primarily MVFR restrictions are expected to
continue for ITH and BGM, with occasional restrictions possible
at SYR and RME through the overnight. There is a plume of
steadier snow that is just east of ITH that should hold together
to reach BGM within the next hour that can bring IFR or lower
restrictions briefly. This zone will be closely monitored in
case further amendments are needed.

Beyond 12Z, a band of snow showers is expected to move across
SYR and RME through early to mid afternoon. There is the
potential for IFR visby with this band during the mid-to-late
morning hours, especially at SYR. A weak wave moving through is
expected to keep ceiling restrictions in place much of the
afternoon tomorrow, except for AVP, then as winds start to turn
southwesterly at the end of the TAF period, ceiling should start
to gradually lift.

Outlook...

Monday night...Occasional restrictions in the evening with
diminishing snow showers, then gradually becoming VFR.

Tuesday through early Thursday... Mainly VFR.

Late Thursday into Friday...Potential frontal passage with rain
showers, possibly mixing with or ending as snow showers along
with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ017-018.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...DK/JTC