Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

723
FXUS61 KBGM 121937
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
337 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor adjustments to PoPs, QPF and thunderstorm probabilities Tuesday
into Tuesday evening based on the latest convective allowing model
guidance. Slight increase in shower chances Wednesday as the front
slowly drops south over the region. Increased PoPs for periods of
rain and showers Friday into Friday night as the strong cold front
moves through the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) A series of fronts will move through the area late tonight into
Tuesday. This will bring showers and few thunderstorms to the area,
especially across Central NY. Otherwise, it will be very warm and
partly sunny across the region.

2)A few lingering showers will be possible Wednesday, before the
cold front completely clears the area on Thursday, bringing mostly
sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.

3) Unsettled weather with periods of rain expected Friday into
Friday night. A strong cold front pushes through and a few wet snow
showers could mix in late Friday night into Saturday. Dry and sunny
weather returns with near average temperatures Sunday into early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1

Some partial clearing will work its way west to east this evening.
Then partly cloudy conditions prevail overnight, with some patchy
fog possible from the Twin Tiers south into NE PA. Late tonight into
Tuesday morning the warm front will begin pushing north-northeast
over the area. This may initiate some showers and isolated elevated
thunderstorms, mainly along and north of the I-90 corridor. A few of
this isolated showers could clip the Twin Tiers Tuesday morning,
otherwise it will be partly sunny from the NY Southern Tier south
into NE PA Tuesday morning. Eventually the warm front should lift
northeast, clearing the CWA by midday or early Tuesday afternoon.
Behind this feature, expect mostly sunny skies once again from the
Twin Tiers south. Further north, near I-90 the clouds linger much of
the day with additional shower and thunderstorm chances expected.
There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5 ) for an isolated strong or
severe storm across northern areas, with the greatest potential
being for isolated damaging wind gusts. Instability will reach close
to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and bulk shear should be close to 40 kts.
Otherwise, Tuesday will feature very warm temperatures and humid
conditions. Highs will reach well into the 70s (and even low 80s in
the deeper valley locations).

KEY MESSAGE 2

A moist west-northwest flow takes hold over the area on Wednesday,
as the nearly stalled cold front lingers over south-central PA.
Model guidance is showing the potential for a few light showers or
sprinkles traversing the area during the afternoon hours. Otherwise,
Wednesday will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs in the
60s to around 70 for CNY, and low to mid-70s in NE PA.

A much drier air mass and stronger surface high pressure center
finally reaches the area for Thursday. This should bring plenty of
sunshine, lower humidity and comfortable temperatures in the upper
50s to mid-60s. Northwest winds could be a little breezy Wednesday
night into Thursday morning behind the departing front.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Our next impactful system looks to be Thursday night through Friday,
followed by a deep upper trough settling over the Northeast U.S.
into Saturday. Widespread rain showers will be possible again
Thursday night through Friday as a fast moving low pressure system
crosses the region. This system will be followed by a deep upper
trough/low diving into the area from central Canada.

This trough has been modeled consistently between most of the major
global models, so confidence continues to increase for unsettled
conditions this Saturday. T850 could dip as low as -8C over Central
NY on Saturday as cold air advection takes hold on NW flow. Lake
America water temperatures are quite warm, ranging in the upper 50s
to low 60s. Such a large  difference in air and water temperatures
should produce a  decent lake response and our first lake effect
rain and snow event of  the season is possible if this forecast
pattern takes shape. The lake effect precipitation looks to taper
off fairly quickly by later Saturday as high pressure moves in.

Some very light elevation dependent wet snow accumulation could
occur, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in just hold cold
boundary layer temperatures will be. Current data shows highs in the
40s Saturday afternoon, so snow accumulations will be difficult and
unlikely during the day.

High pressure returns for Sunday and Monday next week. This will
bring sunny skies and a return to seasonable temperatures during the
day time. Overnight lows will be cold Saturday night in the mid-20s
to low 30s areawide, bringing the first widespread freeze to some
locations.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mix of Fuel Alt to LIFR conditions linger into the early
portion of the afternoon before conditions finally improve.
Most sites are expected to improve to VFR late afternoon/early
evening. RME and SYR is expected to remain below VFR conditions
as the low cloud deck of MVFR/IFR hangs around in northern
Central NY. With any clearing for the remaining NY terminals
from weak high pressure to the south, fog development is
possible tonight especially at ELM. Rains showers return by the
end of the TAF period for our northern sites.

Outlook...

Monday night...A mixture of VFR to IFR conditions with weak
high pressure passing well to the south of the area. Some
showers may be close to the western terminals by daybreak on
Tuesday.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions possible as
another low pressure system approaches the region with showers
and a slight chance of daytime thunder.

Wednesday through Thursday...High pressure building in should
result in mostly VFR conditions with the exception of valley fog
at ELM.

Friday...Low pressure system approaches the region with restrictions
possible.

Saturday...Cooler air settles into the region with the potential
for some early season snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...ES