Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

050
FXUS61 KBGM 120521
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
121 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made from the previous
forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and warm weather returns today.

2) A low pressure system will bring numerous showers and a
chance for a few strong thunderstorms on Tuesday.

3) A deep upper trough may move through the region to end the
week, bringing rain and the possibility for the first snow
showers of the season.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1

The rain has push out overnight and ridging builds into the
area today with dry and warmer conditions. Mostly cloudy skies
will likely linger into the afternoon, however high temperatures
are still expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2

The pattern will remain active this week with the system
impacting the region on Tuesday. A low pressure system is
forecast to track eastward across the Great Lakes into Ontario
as the day progresses. Warm SW flow out ahead of this system
will push high temperatures well into the 70s by Tuesday
afternoon with upper 70s possible west of the I81 corridor.
This will allow for instability to increase out ahead of the
approaching cold front, producing a chance for strong
thunderstorms west of I-81. Current indices look decent for mid
OCtober with CAPE of 750-1200 J/kg, and 35-40kts of 0-6km bulk
shear. However, uncertainty for thunderstorm coverage and
intensity is still high at this time, as the models continue to
have differences in timing and location of the low.

Behind this system, high pressure is expected to build back in,
but with zonal flow aloft expected through the week. This will
allow for potential a few weak short waves to bring more chances
for isolated showers Wednesday and possibly Thursday.


KEY MESSAGE 3

Our next big system looks to be Thursday night through Friday,
followed by a deep upper trough settling over the Northeast U.S.
this weekend. Widespread rain showers will be possible again
Thursday night through Friday as a fast moving low pressure
system crosses the region. This system will be followed by a
deep upper trough/low diving into the area from central Canada.

This trough has been modeled somewhat consistently between most
of the major global models, so confidence continues to increase
for unsettled conditions this weekend. T850 could dip as low as
-10C over Central NY on Saturday as cold air advection takes
 hold on NW flow. Lake America water temperatures are quite
 warm, ranging in the upper 50s to low 60s. Such a large
 difference in air and water temperatures should produce a
 decent lake response and our first lake effect snow event of
 the season is possible if this forecast pattern takes shape.

 This will certainly be something to watch over the coming days,
 especially because it is very early in the season. Any snow
 accumulation this early is rare, but with trees still mostly
 covered in leaves, any snowfall greater than a couple of inches
 could cause major issues. This is still 6 days away, so changes
in the forecast are likely over the coming days and the details
can be more fine-tuned in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mix of MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to continue
impacting all terminals for the majority of the forecast period.
There will be a slow improvement of conditions through the
daytime hours, with the majority of terminals improving to VFR
by the evening. RME and SYR is expected to remain below VFR
conditions towards the end of the 06z TAF period as the last
remaining extension of what was Isaias continues moving slowly
to the northeast.

Outlook...

Monday night...A mixture of MVFR and VFR conditions with weak
high pressure passing well to the south of the area. Some
showers may be close to the western terminals by daybreak on
Tuesday.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions possible as
another low pressure system approaches the region with showers
and a slight chance of daytime thunder.

Wednesday through Thursday...High pressure building in should
result in mostly VFR conditions with the exception of valley fog
at ELM.

Friday...Low pressure system approaches the region with restrictions
possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...KL