Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

042
FXUS61 KBGM 150128
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
928 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Kept previous changes made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strengthening low passes north of the region Friday into
Saturday bringing rain, wind, as well as a strong cold front.

2) High pressure and southwest flow will lead to a gradual warm
up through next week after a chilly weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1

A trough digging into the front range of the Rockies today will
help two shortwaves phase. A strong early season low pressure
system forms and moves into the Great Lakes region Thursday
night into Friday. A warm front lifts into the northeast
Thursday night with rain overspreading the area. There is still
some uncertainty if the warm front can lift all the way through
our region into northern NY putting us completely in the warm
sector or if the front may stall near the I-90 corridor. If we
are in the warm sector, strong warm air advection drives 850 mb
temperatures to around 15C so areas that see breaks of sun may
warm into the mid 70s. Full sun may drive temperatures into the
upper 70s but given the moisture in place in forecast soundings,
odds are there will be plenty of clouds. Showers and drizzle may
be persistent as well in the warm sector.

Given the cloud cover and fairly stable warm sector, severe
thunderstorms are not anticipated as the cap will be tough to
break. Shear is in place, with 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The
main trigger for any storms will be the frontal passage in the
afternoon so there is a chance that a few thunderstorms along
the cold front could become severe with strong wind gusts being
the main concern. NEPA would have the best chance at getting
breaks of sun and some better instability. SPC has a marginal
risk just to the south and it could be expanded northward though
todays model trends have been to a slightly weaker low.

Post frontal, the 850 mb temperatures drop nearly 25C from
around 15C above to -7C to -9C. Lake effect rain showers quickly
develop for much of the Southern Tier and Northward. It does
look like towards Sunrise Saturday, as the 850 mb temperatures
near their lowest readings, that some wet snow will mix in with
the lake effect rain at elevations above 800 feet or so. With
the lake effect winding down by then as subsidence takes over
with high pressure building in, no accumulation is expected.
Saturday will be windy under the strong cold air advection, with
winds bumped up over the NBM. BUFKIT soundings hint that gusts
could approach 40 mph though that will likely be in the higher
terrain though gusts over 30 are likely region wide.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Saturday night into Sunday is looking cold as surface high
pressure builds in. Depending if we can completely clear from
some lake effect clouds, we could radiate out well into the 20s
for much of the area. Even so, it is likely we see the first
widespread killing freeze. Sunday and beyond, upper level
ridging builds back in and 500 mb heights rise back above 580
dm. offshore flow and slow moisture return will also keep us dry
through most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly MVFR CIGs expected tonight as the axis of a weak trough
crosses the region. Occasional breaks in the cloud decks or
increased cloud base heights will allow for brief improvements
to VFR. Winds will briefly increase some during the overnight
out of the northwest to north with weak cold air advection and a
decent LLJ overhead during the overnight period.

Thursday, clouds will start to diminish in coverage and cloud
base heights will start to increase, resulting in VFR flight
conditions for all terminals by the late morning and early
afternoon. Clouds will start to increase later in the day ahead
of the next system.

Outlook...

Thursday night Friday...Low pressure system passing by,
increasing winds and rain will lead to restrictions. Potential
for LLWS will increase for the second half of Thursday night.

Saturday...Lake effect cloud cover keeps cig restrictions likely
for all terminals but AVP. Early morning snow showers possible
at ITH and BGM.

Sunday into Monday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR
conditions expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...SJW