Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

427
FXUS61 KBGM 111038
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
638 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
PoPs were increased for tonight and early Wednesday morning as a
system will bring showers to northeast PA and potentially the
Southern Tier.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A system will clip portions of the region with showers and
thunderstorms today and tonight. The weather will remain active
through midweek.

2) Drier and cooler conditions are expected in time for the weekend,
though rain will return by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

With a broad ridge out west and a trough in the east, the weather
will remain active during the midweek period. Beginning with today,
a MCS will moves through the Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Ahead
of it, a weak wave will kick off some isolated showers and
thunderstorms across northeast PA and possibly into portions of the
Southern Tier late this afternoon and evening. If skies stay mostly
cloudy, then instability will likely be more limited than what most
guidance have. However, if there can be some breaks in the clouds,
then MLCAPE values could rise to around 1000 J/kg. The 0-6 km bulk
shear will be between 30 to 40 kts. As usual, while low-level lapse
rates are steep, mid-level lapse rates will be modest at best. Given
all of this, confidence is low for strong storms today though a
couple storms could become organized and have gusty winds as the
main hazard.

Overnight, this system begins to drop south with the bulk of the
precipitation southwest of the region. However, many CAMs and some
of larger-scale models have the system drift east some, leading to
showers across northeast PA for most, if not all, of the overnight
period. The NAM does seem to be an outlier with the track of the
system, though it should be noted that it hangs onto some
instability during the late evening hours. Typically conditions will
become more stable after sunset as suggested by the GFS. Still,
seeing the potential for some convection, isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out. PoPs were increased above NBM guidance for
tonight. There is uncertainty how far north these showers will
extend as a passing shower or two could be observed in the Southern
Tier. Patchy fog will be possible in the lower terrain areas as
skies will be mostly clear and winds will be light. Locations that
receive rain today may have better chances due to the added moisture.

High pressure will build back into the region on Wednesday, leading
to a warm, dry day. The next weak disturbance will move through
overnight and support isolated to scattered showers. With limited
instability, a couple thunderstorms will also be possible.
Conditions will then dry out Thursday morning but with a deepening
upper level trough, the next round of showers and thunderstorms
develop during the afternoon. Showers will continue during the
overnight hours as a cold front drops south across the region.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following the frontal passage, the end of the week and most of the
weekend will be dry and cooler. After a week of temperatures maxing
out in the upper 70s to mid 80s, most of the region will see highs
in the 70s heading into the weekend. While there remains uncertainty
with the timing of the next system, models have trended slightly
slower. A weak low pressure system will move into the region by
Sunday night with the next round of showers and thunderstorms. Drier
air is quick to follow this system, though wrap around moisture may
be enough to support some lingering showers on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Patchy fog across the area and IFR restrictions at ELM and AVP
should clear out by mid morning. VFR conditions are expected
across most of the region today. Scattered showers and storms
will be possible at AVP this afternoon, with a chance for MVFR
restrictions. Tonight will see weak high pressure move over the
area. This should allow for IFR and lower restrictions at ELM
again tonight. ITH and BGM will have chances for patchy for and
restrictions, but confidence in this occurring is too low to
include in the TAFs at this time.



Outlook:

Tuesday through Thursday...Unsettled pattern with periods of
showers and scattered thunderstorms with associated
restrictions. Restrictions with overnight fog/low clouds are
also possible.

Friday and Saturday...Returning to VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...JTC