Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

747
FXUS61 KBGM 050523
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1223 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is a potential for some pockets of freezing rain across parts
of the Catskills and Mohawk Valley Thursday night into Friday
morning. While Winter Weather Advisories have not been issued at
this time due to low confidence and marginal temperatures, it is
possible some may be needed as we get closer.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another round of rain is expected late tonight, through
Thursday, and into Friday morning. Some pockets of freezing rain
will be possible Thursday night into Friday morning for parts of
the Catskills and the Mohawk Valley.

2) Spring-like conditions are expected late this week into early
next week with above normal temperatures and multiple chances
for additional rain showers. River rises are expected, with an
increasing risk of possible flooding, perhaps including isolated
ice jams.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure continues to bring dry weather this afternoon.
After morning clouds and fog, sunshine has broken out across
most of the area. This dry weather will last through this
evening, before rain begins to move back into the area late
tonight/early Thursday morning.

A stationary frontal boundary stalled across the Mid-Atlantic
Region will allow for multiple waves of low pressure to move
through our region beginning late tonight/early Thursday
morning. This will bring a widespread rainfall to the area,
especially from the Southern Tier of NY southward into Northeast
PA. With high temperatures on Thursday likely in the upper 30s
to mid 40s, the form of precipitation during the daytime hours
on Thursday will be mainly rain. However, temperatures Thursday
night into Friday morning will likely fall to near freezing
across the higher elevations of the Catskills and the Mohawk
Valley, which would potentially allow for some freezing rain to
occur during this timeframe. With very marginal temperatures,
confidence in seeing any impacts from this freezing rain is
quite low at this time and therefore a Winter Weather Advisory
was not issued for now. In fact, it will only take temperatures
to be a degree or two warmer for freezing rain to not occur at
all across those areas.

With the steady rainfall and mild temperatures, snowmelt will be
accelerated wherever snow cover still remains. This will result
in the potential for some flooding as we head into the weekend
(see next key message).

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Due to the aforementioned rounds of rainfall, combined with
warmer weather, rivers and streams are expected to rise late
this week into early next week. In fact, temperatures on
Saturday will be the warmest we have seen since November for
most areas with highs forecast to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s
east of I-81 and lower 60s to near 70 degrees west of I-81.
This temperature forecast does come with a bit of uncertainty
(especially east of I-81) due to a backdoor cold front likely
being situated somewhere near, or just east of our area.

A cold front is expected to move through the region Saturday
night into Sunday, which will bring the potential for widespread
rain showers. PWATs will likely be a bit over one inch, which is
anomalously high for this time of the year. As a result,
locally heavy downpours will certainly be possible. Rivers and
streams will need close monitoring during this timeframe for
potential flooding, including possible isolated ice jams.

River ensemble forecasts show the potential of several points
entering action stage, even possible minor flooding at a few
points. Recent thinning of ice has occurred, but a risk of ice
jams is still present. Whatever potential there is, will reveal
itself Friday through the weekend because river rises will be
significant enough to break up and move the ice. If the ice is
thick enough, there could be isolated jams and associated
erratic water levels at bridges and pinch points. But if not,
the silver lining will be the flushing through of most, if not
all of the ice in the rivers.

Despite the passage of a cold front. temperatures Sunday remain
above normal for this time of the year (mainly in the 50s).
Southwesterly flow quickly returns by Monday, allowing
temperatures to remain in the 50s and 60s early next week. While
it is quite far out, it is worth noting that the
Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week does have the potential to
be very warm with widespread 60s and even 70s for highs possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A system will push in from the WSW overnight and expect lowering
ceilings through the early morning hours. Rain overspreads the
region this morning as well, starting around 10z at ELM and
slowly spreading to westward to ITH/BGM/AVP. IFR and lower
restrictions are expected with this rain with warm air advecting
in over the cold ground and areas with snow pack remaining.
Widespread low ceilings and fog should develop with the rain and
last through the TAF period. SYR and RME do not see rain until
the afternoon hours and IFR visibility and ceilings will be
possible by this evening.


Outlook:

Friday - Saturday...Multiple chances for rain and fog with
fluctuating restrictions throughout the week.

Sunday and Monday...Improving to VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...JTC/MPK