Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

358
FXUS61 KBGM 181052
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
652 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Pennsylvania DEP Air Quality Alert has
ended. Otherwise, forecast on track with no major changes made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Smoke across the region today gets swept out tonight.

2) A combination warm/cold frontal passage will bring a period
of showers/storms into the region this morning, followed by
strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and early
evening. Damaging winds and brief torrential rainfall are
possible.

3) Showers and storms will again be possible in the mid-week time
frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Latest runs of the HRRR model smoke guidance show high concentrations
of near-surface smoke returning to the region. Smoke appears as
though it will linger well into the afternoon hours before a
cold front sweeps through the region tonight. Disruption of the
airmass due to showers and frontal passages should keep the
smoke a little thinner than previous days. Air Quality Alerts
remain in effect for Central NY on Saturday. It will be up to
State partners if these will be a need to be extended.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Today`s forecast will be complicated with variable sensible
weather conditions throughout the day. Initial weather will be
associated with a warm front lifting northeast through the
region this morning with showers and possibly some thunderstorm
activity due to elevated instability along the frontal plane.
Then...most of the forecast area should see a break in action
within the warm sector during the middle part of the day.
Conditions will become much more humid and uncomfortable as
dewpoints climb to around 70 degrees and temperatures reach the
lower 80s.

This surge of heat and moisture will prime the atmosphere ahead of
an approaching cold front and upper trough from Canada. Severe
convective parameters become individually favorable for
organized thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon and
evening with MLCAPE values now indicating 1500-2000 J/kg. Deep
layer shear will be sufficient at 35-40 kts. There is a bit of a
discontinuity between the best shear and best instability with
higher shear occurring in the morning and best thermal forcing
in the afternoon. Still the overall expected conditions are
favorable enough when combined with sufficient dynamic forcing.
The Storm Prediction Center still has our area within the
Enhanced Risk category with wind damage the expected outcome
along with a potential for rotating storms and a low probability
for a tornado. Highest threat potential for severe storms
appears to be from 4 PM to 10 PM.

Antecedent soil moisture and the recent lack of rainfall lowers
the overall flash flood risk, but WPC maintains a Marginal ERO
over the region. Any potential flash flooding would focus more
toward urban and poor drainage areas, especially those that may
see multiple rounds of showers/storms. Rainfall amounts will
generally be less than an inch, though locally could be higher.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

High pressure builds into the region on Sunday and will remain in control
through Monday night with generally dry and cooler weather. Another
frontal system will arrive for Tuesday with occasional showers
lingering into Wednesday as a deep upper level closed low drops into the
Northeast. Wraparound moisture from the departing low may keep spotty
showers around Thursday before high pressure has a chance to build back in
Friday. Late in the week has the potential to stay dry though some
guidance wants to bring in a weak system from the northwest and more
showers on Saturday although confidence in that happening is currently
low. Temperatures throughout next week will be fairly pleasant,
hovering around climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front moving into the area has brought a return of
wildfire smoke back into the area, which should last into the
afternoon hours. Accompanying this smoke will be rain showers
and thunderstorms that will develop along the front across
portions of the area this morning. MVFR restrictions are
expected for all terminals with the combined rain and smoke. A
few rumbles of thunder may develop this morning but widespread
storms is not expected.

Showers should push east by the early afternoon, with a brief
lull in activity expected before a cold front dives in from the
north, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. SYR and
RME will be the first to see the impacts, with the front
bringing storms during the early-afternoon hours. The front
will continue to slide south, with storms at ELM/ITH/BGM from
the late afternoon hours into the evening. MVFR restrictions are
expected, but IFR visby cannot be ruled out if a heavy downpour
moves over the terminal. Confidence in this is too low to
include in the TAFs at this time.

Once the front passes, a few scattered showers are forecast to
continue over CNY into the early overnight hours with scattered
MVFR ceilings expected thru the end of the TAF period.

Outlook:

Saturday night into early Sunday morning...Scattered showers
and a few lingering thunderstorms with associated restrictions
possible through the evening. Showers should be out of the area
a few hours after Midnight.

The rest of Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms
along with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAB
AVIATION...JTC