Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

453
FXUS61 KBGM 082320
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
720 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm temperatures and increasing humidity are expected across
Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania into Friday.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the region Thursday
afternoon through Friday before quiet weather and high pressure
build back in for the weekend.

3) After seasonal temperatures this weekend, heat builds into the
area through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Weak ridging over the area has brought mostly sunny skies and
has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s.
Temps should rise a few degrees more as we enter peak afternoon
heating.

WSW flow returns tonight as the ridge slides east and a trough digs
into the Great Lakes. This flow will push warmer, more humid air
into the region. Temperatures Thursday will climb into the mid 80s
to low 90s for most, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. The higher
dewpoints will make if feel a little muggy out, but we will not be
hot enough to necessitate any heat headlines.

The axis of the aforementioned trough will move through the area
Thursday night into Friday morning. This will help push temperatures
down into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region. A ridge will
build into the central US this weekend, bringing WNW flow to the
area and seasonable temperatures.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Most of the area should stay dry today, although a weak
shortwave looks to move into central PA, kicking off some
isolated showers across the western Finger Lakes later this
afternoon into the evening. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be
ruled out but severe storms are not expected.

More widespread rain showers and storms are expected for Thursday
into Friday, with 2 different features helping to generate
precipitation across portions of our area. First, a shortwave will
push into the Mid-Atlantic Thursday morning, kicking off scattered
showers and storms across portions of NEPA. Most of the heavier rain
looks to stay to the south, but showers and storms may skirt
portions of the Wyoming Valley into the southern Catskills starting
in the late morning through the afternoon hours. Guidance shows
weak CAPE and shear over the area during much of the afternoon,
keeping any convection that develops elevated and weak. The cap
looks to break later in the afternoon and evening, but the
forcing will be east of the area, limiting precipitation. The
better chance for strong to isolated severe storms will be
across the northern portion of the CWA as a frontal boundary on
the leading edge of the trough axis moves into the area late in
the afternoon to evening hours. Stronger bulk shear of 25-35kts
is modeled to accompany this boundary with modest CAPE around
1000 j/kg. This should kick off some scattered storms, with a
few isolated severe storms possible. Damaging winds would be the
main threat with these storms. Isolated flash flooding will
also be possible as the CAPE over the area looks to be long and
skinny, with PWATs in the 1.5-2in range, warm cloud depths
around 12k feet and MBE vectors of 5-10kts. These parameters
point to slow moving or back building storms with heavy rain
leading to isolated flash flooding. This threat looks to be the
greatest from the late afternoon into the early overnight hours.


The frontal boundary looks to push through the area Thursday night
into Friday morning, but the timing is currently a little unsure
with some models have an early overnight passage, while others push
it through late overnight/early Friday morning, slowing down in
the late morning/early afternoon as it approaches the NY/PA
border. If the passage is towards the later solution, a
shortwave moving into the area from western PA will kick off
scattered showers and storms across the Twin Tiers and into the
Poconos during the afternoon and evening hours. The slow moving
frontal boundary near the NY/PA border providing enhanced lift
of warm, moist air as the shortwave moves across the region
could generate multiple storms with heavy downpours impacting
the same areas causing isolated flash flooding. Because of this,
a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been issued for this
area.

Precipitation chances move out of the area by late evening, with
high pressure building in for the weekend.


Key Message 3...
A very strong ridge will build across the central US starting
Monday, bringing very hot weather to the area. Some of this heat
will propagate along the northern edge of the ridge and slide
into our area starting Tuesday. Widespread mid 80s to low 90s
will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday. A front and associated
trough may dig into the area after Wednesday, bringing some
cooler weather, but confidence in this is low at this time as
model guidance is too varied on the timing of the front and
when/if the ridge weakens.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Mainly VFR throughout the TAF period. Will have to watch for
possible fog at KELM overnight. Also, a MVFR stratus deck may
work into KAVP for a few hours as well. A few showers and
thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon hours. Confidence
and expected coverage at this time only warrants mention of a
VFR shower in the afternoon hours Thursday.


Outlook:

Thursday night...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Cold front could moves in, with isolated to scattered
rain showers and thunderstorms. Restrictions possible.

Saturday into Monday...VFR likely with high pressure building
in, morning fog potential at ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...MWG