Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

594
FXUS61 KBGM 031039
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
639 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated temperatures and thunderstorm chances through the
holiday weekend. Rain chances increased and temperatures lowered
early next week as confidence in coastal low increases.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions will continue through Saturday.

2) Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected for
the holiday weekend. Some storms may be strong to severe on
Friday and Saturday.

3) Coastal low with several rounds of showers and locally heavy
downpours Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Little change from the past few days with the airmass in the
region. Once again we should see high temperatures get well into
the 90`s. Plenty of humidity once again will life peak heat
index values into the 100 to locally 110 degree range. A cold
frontal boundary is still modeled later Friday and Saturday.
This should shave a few degrees off the temperatures on
Saturday. Depending on cloud cover, heat advisory criteria may
be met in NE PA. However, too much uncertainity is present at
this time to issue another headline for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cold frontal boundary should start to slowly sag southward
later today through Saturday. Mose of the mesoscale modeling
indicates several clusters of thunderstorms moving through the
region. Of course, timing and locations still vary. It looks
like the highest chances will be in the late afternoon and
evening. Modeled soundings do show a high potential for the
storms to have gusty and locally damaging winds. This is shown
with inverted V signals and steep low level rates along with
CAPE of 2,000-3,000 J/KG. Modest 0-6KM bulk shear of around 30
knots should allow the thunderstorms to organize into clusters.

Additional showers and thunderstorms should develop along the
frontal boundary Saturday. While bulk shear should remain modest
instability should trend downward keeping any severe threat
more limited compared to Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The cold front looks to south of the region early next week.
However, several waves of low pressure should ride along the
front surging moisture northward into the region. Modeled PW
values increase to about 2 inches for a time Monday into
Tuesday. This indicates the potential for heavy downpours.
Overall, a fairly robust ensemble signal for 1-3 inches of rain
is showing up as well in this timeframe. Suspect high
temperatures will continue to trend cooler early next week given
expected clouds, rain and an easterly-southeasterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this taf period.
Thunderstorms are possible, mainly between 20z and 02z; these
could bring brief restrictions to our taf sites. Winds are
light and variable under 5 kts through mid-morning.

Westerly winds are expected to increase by late morning into
the afternoon with gusts up around 20 knots. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are also expected to return later this
afternoon and evening. Continued with PROB30 groups for TSRA at
all taf sites, between 20z to 02z this afternoon and evening.
These storms have the potential to produce heavy downpours, IFR
or lower visibility, frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds.
Isolated hail could also occur in the strongest storms.

Conditions should then become mainly VFR again by late evening
into the overnight hours.

Outlook:

Saturday through Sunday...Mostly VFR, but intermittent
restrictions will be possible with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

Sunday Night through Monday...Restrictions possible due to
widespread showers and afternoon isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a low chance for additional showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Current high temperatures forecasted for today 7/3 are about 1-3
degrees below record values.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...MJM
CLIMATE...MDP/MWG