Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

445
FXUS61 KBGM 291910
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
310 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Only minor changes were made to PoPs, QPF and temperatures through
the middle of the week with this forecast update. The system at the
end of the week is trending warmer and wetter with all rain now
expected for our forecast area. A Marginal Risk for Excessive rain
and severe thunderstorms is now indicated for the northwestern
portion of the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Staying mainly dry and seasonably mild through Monday afternoon.

2) Unsettled weather returns Monday night into next weekend as a
series of low pressure and frontal systems affect the region.
Uncertainty in the timing and placement of frontal boundaries will
impact temperature gradients and where the steady to heavy rain
falls. Thunderstorms and locally heavy rain will also need
monitoring from Tuesday through Friday, as will the responses on
smaller river systems.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

It stays dry, partly cloudy and mild this evening into tonight with
lows only dipping down into the mid-30s to low 40s areawide. Monday
will see some morning sunshine followed by increasing afternoon
clouds. As a weak mid level wave moves overhead there could be a few
scattered showers or sprinkles in the afternoon as well. Otherwise,
it will be warm and a little breezy with southwest winds 8-15 mph
and a few gusts up around 20 mph. High temperatures reach the upper
50s to low 60s, which is around 10 degrees above average for
late March.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An active weather pattern will set up across the US for much of the
weak as a trough develops over the western US and the Bermuda high
slides eastward, allowing the Gulf to open and moisture to flow into
the central US. As pieces of this western trough eject east-
northeast our area looks to be impacted with multiple rounds of rain.

First a period of light to moderate rain showers is likely to move
through the area Monday night along a developing warm front. Expect
between about a tenth to quarter inch of rain from this feature.

Confidence continues to increase for showers and storms Tuesday and
Wednesday as a low pressure center passes to the north. Most of our
area is expected to be well into the warm sector south of a front on
Tuesday. Model soundings show abundant moisture, (PWATs in the 1.0-
1.5 range) with modest amounts of MLCAPE available (up to 500 J/kg)
as some midday to afternoon clearing is possible. SPC does have the
western half of our area under a Marginal Risk; this will be highly
dependent on seeing any clearing and daytime heating. The latest
trends in the guidance are warmer for Tuesday, with highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Day 3 (Tues-
Weds) suggests a Marginal risk of heavy rain generally along and
north of the NY Southern Tier, where rainfall rates could exceed the
very low flash flood guidance (anything more than 1-2 inches in a 6
hour period could start to cause issues).

These signals are indicated along the warm/stationary front and
track of the main surface low...but we`ll also have to be cognizant
of any pre-frontal convection over the rest of CNY and NE PA.
Ensemble mean guidance continues to suggest the frontal passage will
occur Wednesday morning or midday but how far south the front moves
before stalling is still unclear, and it could still be over NE PA
Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures are trending much warmer Wednesday
afternoon across NE PA, where it is forecast to reach 70-75 degrees.

The front barely makes it into southern PA or the northern Mid-
Atlantic Wednesday evening before it lifts back north as a new warm
front on Thursday. This will bring another round of rain and showers
to the area through Thursday night...with yet more rain potential on
Friday as the center of the low and eventual cold front press
through the area. The latest guidance continues to show the cold
front washing out a stalling as it approaches the Mid-Atlantic
states due to that strong Bermuda High off the coast. This will open
the door for a third system to bring more rain over the coming
weekend. It does looks like behind this weekend system a stronger
front will finally clear out the higher PWATs and moisture for a
while. Also bringing a short period of cooler temperatures as well.

There are a lot of variables associated with each of these systems,
however the simple fact that each system may stack more and more
water across our increasingly sensitive watersheds lends careful
watching. Hydrologic ensembles continue to show medium chances for
minor flooding at some of the headwater points, with even a low
probability (5-10%) to reach moderate stage flooding if everything
comes together. Something to keep a close eye on in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the entire
TAF period (at least through 18Z Monday). Weak LLWS will be
possible at all terminals late tonight/early Monday morning,
before dissipating at around 12Z Monday.

Outlook:

Monday morning through Monday early afternoon...Mainly VFR.

Monday late afternoon through Thursday...a chance of rain
showers and associated occasional restrictions possible.
Thunder possible each afternoon starting Tuesday afternoon.

Friday...Scattered rain showers and associated occasional
restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAB/MJM
AVIATION...BJG