Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

841
FXUS61 KBGM 122311
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
711 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
With an earlier frontal passage, severe thunderstorm potential
will advance more quickly east this afternoon, ceasing by
evening. While weekend weather appears quiet tonight through
midday Sunday, confidence in increasing for another round of
thunderstorms later Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will finish moving through the area with some
stronger thunderstorms, but lingering threat ends by evening.

2) While pleasant conditions are expected through at least
midday Sunday, a round of showers and thunderstorms appears
likely to wrap up the weekend Sunday afternoon and evening,
followed by cooler weather early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A threat of scattered gusty thunderstorms will hold on just a
few more hours, shifting to the Catskills and Poconos in mid to
late afternoon before ending.

Timing of the expected cold frontal passage is advancing
quickly, which has somewhat limited heating and thus
instability. Convergence is a bit loose as well, so while we are
having scattered convective cells, they are not organizing into
a solid line. That said, some stronger gusts of 40-50 mph could
still occur, and perhaps even a severe cell or two during
maximum heating in mid-to-late afternoon towards the Catskills-
Poconos where highs will still manage upper 80s in the valleys.
Convective Available Potential Energy still has a decent chance
of reaching 1500-2000 J/Kg in the Poconos-Catskills so that is
where stronger cells could yield gustier and marginally severe
downbursts. By early evening, activity will shunt south and east
of the area, with a cooler air mass advecting in to achieve
lows of mid-upper 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A very dry air mass will result in abundant sunshine Saturday.
Highs will still reach a few degrees above climatology, yet the
air will feel a lot fresher with dewpoints mixing down to the
lower to mid 50s. Ridging will hold into Sunday morning to keep
things dry. However, a stout wave is projected to drop into the
upper Midwest Sunday morning, quickly pivoting around a Canadian
low to swing into our region late Sunday. Modest warming will
occur ahead of that wave, and an uptick in moisture. While not
exactly humid, the forcing with this wave appears favorable
because the air mass behind it will be much cooler for early
next week. Thus, confidence is increasing that we will have a
round a showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon-evening. With
models depicting 2-6km flow of 40-50 knots, there is some
potential for storms to be on the strong side. At the same time,
the modest moisture and speed of individual cells should limit
rainfall amounts, and thus not anticipating excessive rainfall
problems.

A markedly cooler air mass will start the week, with mid 60s-mid
70s for highs Monday and just a touch milder Tuesday. Weak waves
swinging around the broad cool upper trough could touch off
isolated showers by Tuesdsay afternoon, but overall the pattern
is mostly dry. Better rain chances wait until midweek onward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The front is through the region with VFR conditions expected
over the next 24 hours at all terminals. With no rain at ELM
today, and dew points falling into the upper 50s. the chances of
fog is slim. With dry air slowly filtering in out of the NW,
even BGM and AVP will likely stay fog free despite the rain that
fell over the last couple days.

Outlook:

Saturday through midday Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday afternoon through early Monday...Showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions likely Sunday
afternoon-evening, followed by lingering low clouds/fog late
Sunday night-early Monday morning.

Midday Monday through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR, but an
isolated shower is possible Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday...Chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...AJG/MDP