Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

991
FXUS61 KBGM 221957
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
257 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Storm Warnings became Blizzard Warnings for Sullivan, Pike,
and Southern Wayne Counties. Winter Storm Warnings became Winter
Weather Advisories for Susquehanna and Otsego Counties. Steuben
County was added to the Winter Weather Advisory. The Winter Weather
Advisory was canceled for Madison County. Forecasted snowfall totals
were significantly reduced, especially for the higher end snowfall
amounts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A Nor`easter will continue to impact the region today and
overnight with snow lingering Monday. Lake effect snow develops
behind departing system.

2) A clipper system moves through the Northeast midweek with the
next round of snow.

3) The active pattern likely continues through the end of the week
with cold air returning next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Snow showers continue as a low over the Great Lakes begins to weaken
and the low that will become a Nor`easter begins to drift off the
coast of NC/VA. The coastal system will absorb the weaker low later
today and there will likely be a brief lull in snow shower activity
for most of the region late this afternoon and into the evening. As
the dominant low strengthens and moves up along the coast, snow will
spread from south to north. Winds will increase overnight thanks to
a tight pressure gradient around the low. With peak gusts of 40 to
45 mph, localized blizzard conditions may be observed late tonight
and into Monday. Even if snow ends earlier than expected, freshly
fallen snow will easily be lofted. There is potential for some
banding late in the event over the Catskills and Poconos as forcing
becomes slightly more enhanced with peak snowfall rates between 1 to
2 inches per hour.

Snow will gradually come to an end during the daytime hours Monday
as the low drifts up the New England coast. A weak wave behind this
system will drop into western NY with additional snowfall for
portions of central NY. Then flow becomes west to northwesterly
Monday night as lake effect snow develops and is enhanced by this
passing wave. Additional accumulations form late tomorrow through
Tuesday will range from 1 to 2 inches.

This forecast followed the trends of the 06z and 12z guidance which
came in with a much lower QPF footprint over the region. Models have
the low a bit more east than previous updates, hence the lower QPF
seen in most guidance. A blend of the NBM and HREF was used for QPF,
which significantly decreased the northern extent of heavy snow. In
addition, snow-to-liquid ratios (SLRs) were decreased for tonight
and Monday based on WPC guidance. With strong winds, dendrites break
up and lead to slightly lower SLRs than what is often modeled.
Snowfall total within the warnings ranges from 3 to 15 inches with
the highest amounts in far southern portions of Wayne and Pike
Counties in PA. These higher end amounts may still be a little to
high, but if the FGEN banding does set up late in this event, some
heavy snowfall would then occur. The gradient from south to north is
quite sharp as totals taper off to 1 to 3 inches in the Twin Tiers.

With lower snowfall amounts expected. Susquehanna and Otsego
Counties had their warnings changed to advisories as confidence is
high that most of those areas will remain below warning criteria.
There is some guidance coming in wetter so that kept confidence
lower to make any additional changes to the current warnings. The
advisory was dropped from Madison as heavy snowfall should not
extend that far north. Then with the wave dropping in behind the
departing system, Steuben County was given an advisory as localized
amounts of 4 to 5 inches are expected. After much internal
discussion, it was decided to issue Blizzard Warnings for Sullivan,
Pike, and Southern Wayne Counties as localized blizzard conditions
of 1/4 mile visibility due to blowing snow and gusts over 35 mph are
expected.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

A clipper system will slide across the Great Lakes and move into the
Northeast early Wednesday morning. With cold air in place, this will
be the next round of snow across the region. Initially, there will
be decent moisture with this system and some forcing but drier air
will work its way in from the west later in the day. As a result,
snowfall amounts are expected to be fairly light though some
advisories may be needed for northern portions of our region in
future updates. The pressure gradient will be tight on the leading
edge of this system leading to gusty winds and blowing snow. Areas
of reduced visibilities and drifting in open areas will be possible.
Depending on how far north this system tracks, there could be some
warmer air creeping in from the south. As of now, valley locations
will have highs near 40 and with milder conditions, snow would
transition to a rain/snow mix or even just rain.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

The pattern will remain active through the rest of the region. A low
pressure system will move through the region late Thursday into
early Friday though it`s track remains uncertain. The ECWMF and CMC
have weaker systems that pass south of the region, though
precipitation would still be expected. With this solution, colder
air over the region would favor mainly snow. The GFS has a more
developed low and lifts a warm front through before a cold front
quickly follows. This solution would favor rain for some before
becoming all snow. With these differing solutions, blended guidance
was favored. High pressure then builds over the region in time for
the weekend. Guidance is hinting at a cold front on Sunday that
would bring additional snow showers and a shot of colder air.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictive conditions continue initially this afternoon with
fuel alternate required to IFR ceilings and/or visibility in
light snow. Later this afternoon, some dry air works its way in
from the east, allowing improvements. However, the edge of a
significant Nor`easter will then influence weather at all
terminals to varying degrees, whether just increasing and
backing winds or causing snow and blowing snow. KAVP in
particular will get into snow and gusty winds with a least IFR
conditions though it is possible heavier snow bands could reach
at times to cause worse conditions in addition to blowing snow
restricting visibility worse-than-forecast. KRME-KSYR should
escape restrictions from the system, but KELM-KITH and
especially KBGM will get back into it for at least a time Monday
morning.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon through Monday night...system exits for
general improvement, though some lake enhanced light
snow/associated restrictions could make its way towards KITH-
KELM in the afternoon, then KSYR Monday night.

Tuesday morning through evening...Mainly VFR.

Late Tuesday night through through Thursday night...Occasional
restrictions with a couple waves of snow and/or rain.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for PAZ038-039.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for PAZ040-043-044-
     047.
     Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for PAZ048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ022-045-
     046-056.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ057.
     Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...MDP