Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

040
FXUS61 KBGM 182351
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
751 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chances of precipitation were both expanded and kept longer
through most of the morning tomorrow with trough moving in
trending towards a more neutral tilt aiding in more lift.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong late season cold front moves through tonight bringing
a period of heavy rain and thunderstorms followed by a sharp
drop in temperatures.

2) Cold to start the week but a gradual warm up is expected
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front is making its way east today with a line of
showers and thunderstorms that have developed along it in
eastern Ohio into the Great Lakes. The front is not going to be
fast moving so will not be reaching our region until after
sunset. There will be some shower activity ahead of the front
this afternoon though much of the precipitation will evaporate
before reaching the ground. 0-6 km shear is impressive ahead of
the front, peaking at around 60 to 70 knots. The timing of the
frontal passage is late, with the atmosphere stabilizing with
mainly strong forcing along the front to keep convection going
by the time it reaches Steuben county. There is a chance that
some strong winds can mix down still so a marginal risk was kept
in with the afternoon update from SPC, mainly for the far
western Finger Lakes.

The bigger concern will be for some isolated flash flooding
with the heavy rain along the front. The forward progress of the
front is somewhat slow as it moves through, with the associated
trough going from positively tilted to a more neutral so
synoptic lift would be strengthening overnight. Precipitable
water values are between 1.25 and 1.5 ahead of the front so
rainfall rates in its associated showers and thunderstorms could
be over an inch per hour briefly. Since greenup is still
ongoing and soil moisture is still above average, any place that
sees training during the frontal passage may see some water
issues.

After the front, temperatures fall into the 30s and even the
high 20s at higher elevations of CNY and the Catskills. With the
trough trying to become more negatively tilted tomorrow
morning, post frontal precipitation looks to linger longer so
the chances of precipitation were increased and held onto longer
through late morning. The precipitation may hold on long enough
that a brief period of snow is looking possible in the mid
morning for along I81 and east, but surface temperatures above
freezing and incoming solar will prevent any accumulation. Later
in the day with cold air continuing to advect in aloft, lapse
rates become steep enough in conjunction with the strong heating
will lead to instability and convecting rain and snow showers.
Graupel cannot be ruled out either with the showers.

A shortwave moving through Sunday night into Monday looks to
bring a period of light snow showers to most of the region and
accumulating snow of up to an inch at higher elevations, while
valleys will see more of a coating on elevated surfaces. A
deeper pocket of cold air with 850 mb temperatures down to near
-10C on Monday prevents highs from getting out of the 30s for
most of the region. Lake effect snow showers is possible for
most of the day for the Southern Tier and northward with little
to no additional snow accumulation. Monday night will likely be
the last really cold night of the year with lows into the mid to
low 20s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A central US ridge slowly builds in starting Tuesday with
temperatures warming up slowly through the week as the cold air
mass slowly modifies. With mostly NW flow, the pattern looks to
be mostly dry outside of some afternoon showers thanks to day
time heating and still cooler air aloft with the trough over New
England.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR conditions will quickly give way to MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt
restrictions this evening as a band of moderate to occasionally
heavy rain moves from the west. Could see tempo IFR restrictions
with this narrow heavy rain band, and can`t rule out a rumble of
thunder as it moves through ELM, ITH, SYR between 00-03z, RME
and BGM 02-05z and AVP 03-06z. Light rain, mist and borderline
MVFR to IFR CIG restrictions continue for the rest of the
overnight hours. Toward daybreak colder air aloft and at the
surface should allow the rain to mix with, or even briefly
change to wet snow at most of the taf sites. This will bring
some lower vsby and CIG restrictions once again, with IFR
restrictions expected at most TAF sites in the 11-16z timeframe,
and even LIFR at BGM for several hours. The snow/rain mix is
forecast to exit off to the east between 16-18z Sunday, with
conditions coming back up to mainly VFR for the afternoon hours.

Gusty south winds 15-25 kts expected out ahead of the front
through the early evening hours, winds then turn southwest, and
eventually west-northwest overnight into Sunday...remaining
somewhat gusty and breezy between 10-20 kts.


Outlook:

Sunday night through Monday morning...Occasional restrictions
possible in scattered rain and snow showers.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, then a small
chance of showers and minor restrictions Tuesday night.

Wednesday...Front approaches the region with restrictions
possible.

Thursday...VFR conditions possible inbetween systems.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/DK
AVIATION...ES/MJM