Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

528
FXUS61 KBGM 111030
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
630 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added in some chances for isolated to scattered pop up showers
this afternoon across the western Finger Lakes, Southern Tier
and portions of Northeast PA as a shortwave disturbance swings
through the area. Lowered expected overnight lows tonight into
Tuesday morning as model guidance shows an exceptional
radiational cooling environment.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold air mass will linger through Tuesday, with a threat
for widespread frost and freeze conditions tonight into early
Tuesday morning.


2) Another trough of low pressure moves into the area on
Wednesday into Thursday, keeping the cooler weather around, but
with rain and clouds, temperatures will remain above freezing.

3) A pattern change heading into the upcoming weekend and early
next week will allow for warmer air to return to the Northeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Starting off with some high clouds around the area early this
morning, along with cold temperatures and areas of frost.

Today will feature morning sunshine followed by a small chance
at some afternoon pop up rain showers due to the instability
generated by the strong solar heating under the cold air aloft.
Overnight lows will be colder tonight as high pressure will be
centered closer so radiational cooling will be more efficient.
Went closer to the NBM 10th percentile for the official forecast
lows. Freeze warnings may be needed for tonight into early
Tuesday morning as upper 20s to low 30s are possible in
portions of the Catskills, Susquehanna region and into the Twin
Tiers of NY/PA. After the cold start Tuesday will feature ample
sunshine through the day and nicely rebounding temperature with
mid-50s to mid-60s by afternoon. There does not appear to be
another frost or freeze threat after Tuesday morning for the
foreseeable future in our forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next trough of low pressure arrives from the west Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This system will have a lot more moisture
to work with, and it does not have much cold air, with 850mb
temperatures hovering around +2C on most model guidance. Rain
will develop late Tuesday night and overspread the area. Periods
of rain and/or showers will continue all day Wednesday, with a
slight chance for a few thunderstorms as well. Periods of rain
look to continue Wednesday night and even into Thursday as the
slow moving 500mb closed low spins directly overhead. By Friday
the upper level low wobbles slowly east, toward Southern New
England. This may allow our area to gradually dry out, but we
still cannot rule out some pop up showers, especially along and
east of I-81...of course the exact timing and positioning of the
upper level low could still change by day 5.

Even though there will be better moisture with this trough,
with PWATs between 0.5 and 0.8 inches, so rainfall amounts will
be less than a half inch for most of the region through Thursday
morning, but may end up between a half inch to one inch by the
time the rain showers finally end later Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Once this trough is through late Friday or Friday night 500 mb
heights slowly rise and 850 mb temperatures climb back towards
+10C over the weekend. Zonal flow sets up aloft with southerly
flow from the gulf through the central US could mean the pattern
will remain active with frequent chances of showers and
thunderstorms. At least day time highs will be back into the
70s and lows in the upper 40s and 50s. Looking beyond this into
early next week, there are hints that the pattern could
completely flip with ensembles showing greater odds of Western
US troughing and east coast ridging in the 8 to 14 day period.
This could mean daytime highs pushing into the 80s for portions
of Central NY and Northeast PA next Monday and/or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period at all terminals.

There is a slight chance for afternoon rain showers near
ITH/ELM/BGM, but given low confidence in coverage they were not
mentioned in the TAFs. Also, dry air in the lower levels of the
atmosphere will help evaporate some of the showers before they
even reach the ground.

If ELM sees some showers this afternoon, fog with IFR and lower
restrictions will be possible tonight as high pressure and calm
winds will prevail. Fog was not introduced into this TAF set as
confidence in it occurring is low and requires rain to fall
over/near the terminal.


Outlook:

Tuesday thru Tuesday evening...VFR conditions expected.

Late Tuesday night through Thursday...Showers likely with
associated restrictions as low pressure pivots into the region.

Thursday night and Friday: Slow lifting and clearing of
restrictions toward VFR. Timing still somewhat uncertain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ038-039.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009-022>025-
     036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MJM
AVIATION...JTC