Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

261
FXUS61 KBGM 061031
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
631 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little change to going forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A generally dry Fall-like pattern will persist for the
remainder of Labor Day Weekend.

2) Warming is expected Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of a
frontal system projected to pass through with showers and
perhaps embedded thunder late Wednesday or early Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cool and dry northerly flow will continue for our region, due to
circulation around a stacked low pressure that is slow to
progress out of the Canadian Maritime provinces. With the chilly
air aloft and small embedded shortwaves pinwheeling around the
low, minor instability during diurnal heating actually managed
to generate isolated showers Saturday. Further drying of the
atmosphere continues to occur, so any isolated showers today
will probably be confined towards Catskills-Poconos if any at
all. Sun will be mixed with a scattered cumulus field again as
diurnal heating occurs today.

Temperatures in this Fall-ish pattern will be just a tad shy of
climatology today and Labor Day, with highs of upper 60s-mid
70s and crisp mostly clear nights leading to lows of mid
40s-lower 50s as high pressure drifts over the region. Currently
we still have some wind in the boundary layer and scattered
clouds, so fog will tend to be very patchy. However, the next
two nights will be clearer and with more decoupled to calm
winds, promoting better and more typical valley fog formation.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Slight upper ridging begins Tuesday to start nudging
temperatures up, and then reaching us fully Wednesday with highs
of mid 70s-lower 80s as warm air advection occurs ahead of an
approaching front. The associated low pressure system forms in
the lee of the northern Rockies but moves north of the Great
Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. Thus the eventual cold front is
projected to trail pretty distantly from its parent low in
Canada. Models have been trending a bit weaker with this front.
Though the pattern suggests a fair amount of flow aloft and thus
at least modest shear, ensemble data is now depicting very
scant chances (less than 10 percent) of Convective Available
Potential Energy of even reaching 400 J/Kg. There is a good
chance of rain late Wednesday into Wednesday night, but it may
be via forced ascent from a strong jet to the north of the
surface front, and thus more of a stable ana-front rainfall. We
will continue to monitor but potential for stronger convection
seems to be diminishing. There is uncertainty in the models for
whether a secondary front late Thursday-early Friday could
generate a few showers, but high confidence that high pressure
in its wake will probably allow dry cool weather towards the end
of the week into early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR restrictions associated with low clouds streaming off the
lakes and patchy fog should clear up by mid morning. VFR
conditions expected through the day and evening hours. Continued
high pressure over the region will allow for another night of
patchy fog. Boundary layer winds should be lighter than this
past night which gives better chances for persistent fog at ELM
tonight. ITH and BGM may also see fog but confidence in IFR
restrictions is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.


Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; areas of low clouds and
fog possible early each day.

Wednesday through Thursday...Potential cold front passage with
wind shift and showers. Highest chance for showers later
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...JTC