Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

184
FXUS61 KBGM 240032
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
732 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased PoPs, QPF and snow amounts down wind of the
Finger Lakes into the Twin Tiers as multi-bands of lake effect
snow have developed this evening. Snow amounts will still be
light, but could see localized narrow bands of up to 1 or 1.5
inches by around midnight, and as it shifts north slowly
overnight another dusting to 1 inch for portions of Central NY.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light lake effect snow across the Finger Lakes expected this
evening and tonight.

2) Cold clipper system with light accumulating snow moves through
the Northeast late Tuesday night through the day Wednesday.

3) Another potential winter system is possible late Thursday into
Friday, but may move by to the south.

4) Widely varying temperatures this weekend with warm conditions
Saturday, followed by a cold blast Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cold Canadian air on the back side of the departing, deep
coastal low will be drawn south and sewd across the eastern
Great Lakes starting this evening and tonight. With 850mb
temperatures around -15 to -16 deg C moving across unfrozen
Great Lake waters around 0-4 deg C, a brief period lake effect
snow showers will develop. The potential for significant snow
accumulations will be very low given the relatively shallow
depth of the boundary layer and the minimal amount of residence
time of any band that does organize over a particular area. The
flow pattern will be mostly northwesterly around 295-315 deg
this evening, but then back to around 275-285 later
tonight...pushing any LES bands to the north toward sunrise.

At this time we are looking at around 2 inches or less into the
central and southern Finger Lakes where slight upslope
enhancement may help with accumulation. Would not be surprised
to see amounts near 3 inches in and around northern Tioga
County, especially if there ends up being some Finger Lake
enhancement.

There may also be a wind/blowing snow component with this event
tonight, with wind gusts 20-25 mph causing some reduced
visibilities and also helping to keep secondary roads snow-
covered and potentially hazardous.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next system is expected to move through late Tuesday and
through the day Wednesday in the form of a fast-moving clipper
system across the Northeast US.

The challenge with this system will be related to the potential
for a mix of rain with the snow during the day Wednesday. A
notable push of slightly warmer air is expected to be seen ahead
of the short wave, with 850mb temperatures around -7 deg C.
These conditions will likely keep the precip all snow Tue night
and Wed morning with surface temperatures in the mid to upper
20s. This period is when the majority of the accumulating snow
is expected to fall. Ensemble guidance is indicating around a
50-60 pct chance of at least 2 inches of snow...and the higher
probabilities really drop off above 4 inches.

The challenge arrives later in the day Wednesday when surface
temperatures look to rise into the upper 30s and lower 40s on
the back side of trough axis...at least for a brief period of
time. These temperatures will cause the lingering light snow to
mix with and change to rain...before tapering off Wed evening.
There could be weak lake influence Wed night, but with limited
snow accumulations at least at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

We are also tracking another short wave rounding the bottom of
the long wave trough late Thu into Fri. However, at this time it
appears the short wave will dive far enough south to keep most
of the significant precipitation (likely in the form of snow)
just to our south. Current forecast produces an additional 1-2
inches of snow across our area, but this could very well be too
high. Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement with the
southern track of this wave, but we will continue to monitor the
trends through the next 24 to 48 hours as any significant shift
northward would be seen soon.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

Behind the departing long wave trough, heights are expected to
rise aloft and bring with it a noticeably warmer air mass for a
very brief period of time on Saturday. Ensemble guidance is
indicating a 60-70% chance of temperatures above 45 deg F on
Saturday afternoon. This would be in combination with a fair
amount of sun to make it feel even warmer.

Do not get too used to this because on Sunday the cold air is
expected to return as another clipper system moves eastward
across the northern Great Lakes and into southern Quebec. This
system should be mostly a glancing blow for precipitation, but
it may open the door to a bout of cold air with high
temperatures on Sunday only into the 20s and overnight lows Sun
night down into the single digits and teens above zero.
Additional rounds of lake effect snow are possible during this
time and into early next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SYR and RME are currently VFR but will fall to MVFR later this
evening as lake clouds move in from the west. Lake effect snow
showers are also expected to impact SYR, bring MVFR vsbys by
03-05z this evening, and perhaps some tempo IFR vsbys from about
05-09z tonight/early Tuesday AM. The MVFR snow showers taper to
flurries and end by mid to late morning, with MVFR CIGs scattering
and lifting to VFR by late afternoon at both SYR and RME.

Lake effect snow bands off of Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes
will impact ITH and BGM this evening and into the overnight. The
snow shower activity is forecast to continue into the early or
mid morning hours Tuesday, with prevailing MVFR vsbys; and tempo
IFR vsbys this evening (mainly 00-04z). The snow showers taper
to flurries and end by 13-15z Tuesday morning. MVFR CIGs linger
until 18-19z, then scatter out for VFR conditions into Tuesday
afternoon and early evening. ELM will see snow showers for the
next few hours, with mainly MVFR restrictions. The snow showers
then move north and east, likely exiting this terminal by 02-03z
this evening. MVFR CIGs persist here until around 17z Tuesday,
with it then scattering out and becoming VFR.

AVP is VFR now, but is forecast to see MVFR CIGs settle over the
terminal from around 02z this evening until midday Tuesday. The
clouds then lift and scatter for VFR conditons Tuesday afternoon
and evening here.

Expect northwest winds 8-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts, gradually
diminishing overnight. West northwest winds 10-20 kts continue
Tuesday morning, before decreasing further in the late
afternoon and evening back under 10 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday: Restrictions likely with a
period of widepsread light to moderate snow overnight, becoming
mixed snow and rain showers Wednesday. Confidence moderate to
high.

Late Wednesday Night - Thursday morning...Mainly VFR. Confidence
moderate

Thursday afternoon and night...Restrictions possible with
another round of snow and/or rain-snow mix. Confidence low at
this time.


Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. Confidence moderate to high.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJT/MJM
AVIATION...BTL/MJM