Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

590
FXUS61 KBGM 021903
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
303 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased the threat for strong to severe storms across the region
this afternoon and tonight, along with the potential for heavy rain
and flash flooding.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Enhanced Risk for severe weather today and tonight as a line of
thunderstorms move through with the potential for damaging winds,
hail and a few tornadoes.

2) Slight risk for excessive rainfall that could potentially lead to
flash flooding across portions of central NY and northeast PA
tonight.

3) Quiet weather with lower humidity and seasonal temperatures
Friday through the Labor Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

One of the two main concerns the rest of today and tonight will
be the threat for damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes from
severe thunderstorms expected to roll through the region later
today and this evening.

Large ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the TN
Valley region this afternoon as a series of short waves track
eastward along the northern periphery of the ridge through the
Great Lakes. The forcing from these waves will combine with an
abundance of moisture and instability throughout a deep layer
which will contribute to strong/deep convective development
later today.

Strong storms moved through earlier this morning and left
behind residual moisture and a boundary layer well-turned over.
However, the atmosphere appears to have recovered and the stage
is set for another round of strong, and likely, severe storms
into central NY and northeast PA after 5 PM. Current satellite
and radar imagery has indicated in the past hour an area of
rapidly developing storms in southern Ontario. Latest high
resolution guidance (i.e. HRRR) is indicating that the trailing
short wave in MI will catch up with this convection and
eventually tap into a very unstable and highly sheared
environment to the east (western NY) and initiate convection
that will move rapidly eastward this evening.

The convective mode appears to be mostly discrete initially and
then transition to either a dominant singular line or smaller
line segments later this evening and overnight. Surface analysis
does indicate a warm front hanging around across NY, which
would aid in localized enhanced shear for maturing storms. The
tornado and hail threats appear to be early in the event,
associated with storms along this boundary. As the storms grow
upscale and become more linear the threat of damaging winds
increase. Cannot rule out quick spinup tornadoes embedded in the
lines as well given the extreme amount of low level shear.

Environmental parameters for severe storms are mostly
favorable, including 500-1500 J/kg of ML CAPE, 35-45 kt of 0-6km
shear and 20- 30 kt of 0-1km shear. Hodographs are sharply
curved and favorable for rotating updrafts. Some of the limiting
factors with this event could be the stable clouds that are
currently in place and look to be fairly stubborn to scour out
east and south of the Finger Lakes. The convection that gets
going in wrn NY may meet this stable air and become mostly
elevated above the boundary layer if the clouds stick around.

The strong-severe thunderstorms will roll through the area
between approximately 7 PM to around 2 AM Thu. There is a threat
of heavy rain and flash flooding as well, with the persisting
weaker storms holding on through the overnight.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
The second conern is for flash flooding. There is a slight risk
of excessive rainfall that could lead to rapid runoff and flash
flooding across the region tonight due to heavy showers and
thunderstorms.

A wave of convection, currently developing in southern Ontario,
will gather energy and speed this evening and push into the
region tonight. These thunderstorms will focus along a warm
front and combine with the steering flow nearly parallel to the
front to produce back-building storms that could train over the
same area once the front sags south into the southern tier of
NY.

The environment is primed for deep moist convection with PWs
around 1.5 to 2 inches and a persistent LLJ from the southwest
pulling in moisture to help regenerate the storms to the west as
they move eastward.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for a large portion of
central NY and the northern tier of northeast PA beginning at 4
PM today and continuing through 8 AM Thu.

Locations north of Cortland and Oneonta saw a fair amount of
rainfall this morning, anywhere from 0.5 to 2.5 inches, which
has left many areas saturated and very sensitive to additional
rainfall. Rainfall rates will be the main concern where rates
upwards of 1.5 to 2 inches in an hour could cause flooding
problems in the sensitive areas and around 2 to 2.5 inches in an
hour in other locations could cause flash flooding...especially
in urban areas and heavy terrain.

The showers and weak storms will persist into the overnight,
but slowly drop south with time. The question will be how
quickly/slowly the entire system moves south. The slower it
moves the more problems are likely. The quicker it moves out,
the less hydro issues expected. The current forecast has most of
the heavier precip out of the area before 6 AM.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The upper ridge slowly drops south on Thursday as the upper low
rotates east/newd. The wave pattern gradually becomes flatter
with time and the air mass drier and cooler. This pattern will
be favorable for quiet and dry weather with seasonal
temperatures in the 70s during the day and 50s/low 60s at night.
There does appear to be non-zero chances for rain in the
afternoon, or at the very least diurnal cumulus clouds Friday
and Saturday before more clearing possible Sunday into Labor
Day.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/MVFR fuel alternate CIGs will linger from near ELM and ITH
south and east to BGM and AVP. BGM will be lower, mainly LIFR to IFR
much of the afternoon under the marine layer influence. The MVFR
CIGs may scatter out at times at ELM and ITH, as they are on the
edge of the lower cloud deck. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions will
persist at RME and SYR through around 23z.

After around 23/00z this evening pop up showers and thunderstorms
look to develop across portions of Central NY. At first coverage may
be more isolated to scattered in the early evening, so addressed
this potential with TEMPOs in the TAFs at SYR, RME, ITH...with ELM
and BGM being a little later after 01z. Heading into the late
evening and overnight there looks to be a period of heavy rain and
thunderstorms that is forecast to drop NW to SE across the area. The
best consensus on timing of this heavy thunderstorm cluster/line is
01 to 05z at RME and SYR, 02 to 08z at ELM and ITH and 04-08z at
BGM. As this line moves through there could very well be IFR/LIFR
conditons with heavy rain, reduced visibility and very gusty winds.
There could even be isolated hail with a few storms. The storms
reach AVP between 03-07z, and could continue until 10z before
transitioning to light rain. After the storms end at all locations
there will likely be a period of light rain, drizzle and low CIGs
lingering into mid morning Thursday. Then, conditions begin to lift
and scatter out by late Thursday morning or early afternoon.

Surface winds will be south-southeast into this evening, under 10
kts, veering more southwesterly overnight. Winds will be gusty and
erratic in any thunderstorms that occur. Winds turn west-northwest
Thursday morning, between 5 to 15 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Afternoon... Mainly VFR, although scattered showers and
thunderstorms could bring restrictions at times.

Thursday Night...Chance for showers, with associated ceiling
restrictions possible.

Friday through Monday...Low operational impact. Chance of early
AM fog each day.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for PAZ038>040.
NY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NYZ015>018-022>025-
     036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJT
AVIATION...MJM