Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

925
FXUS61 KBGM 061807
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
207 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cancelled the flood watch, as any deep moist convection will
remain well off to our southeast. No other changes made at this
time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain showers expected through Tuesday morning across the
region with the heaviest rain falling this afternoon and evening
across the Finger Lakes Region. No further flash flooding is
expected.

2) Low pressure exits out into the Atlantic Tuesday morning.
This will bring partly sunny conditions, with chances for a few
pop up showers or isolated t`storm Tuesday across the Twin Tiers
and into the southern Catskills, then dry and seasonable
weather on Wednesday.

3) The next trough and front is progged to slowly move through the
area Thursday into Friday. This will bring increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms along with more warm and humid conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Although we have ample moisture in the region, there is very
little instability and this is an important ingredient for deep
moist convection to occur. Without the instability, the current
thought is that rainfall rates will not be able to get intense
enough to exceed flash flood guidance, so it was decided to
cancel the flood watch early. We still we see moderate to even
heavy showers at times this afternoon through tonight, but the
most likely area to see heavier showers today is across the
Finger Lakes Region. This area was completely missed by heavy
rainfall yesterday, so flash flooding will not be a concern
there. Mostly cloudy conditions will continue overnight and
temperatures will remain warm with low in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Surface low pressure moves out into the Atlantic by Tuesday
morning. However, the upper trough will linger overhead and this
will keep clouds and scattered showers around. Due to the clouds
and showers, it stays on the cooler side again tomorrow with
highs only reaching into the 70s. There could be a few more
breaks of afternoon sun up toward the I-90 corridor, Mohawk
Valley and Syracuse metro area; this allows for highs in the
upper 70s to near 80 here.

By Wednesday, the latest ensemble forecast guidance continues to
show dry conditions as weak high pressure builds overhead.
Skies are also expected to become partly to mostly sunny and
high temperatures warm up into the 80s areawide with moderate
humidity levels forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

There was very little change in the 12Z model guidance from
Thursday onward. Thursday is forecast to be the warmest day of
the upcoming week and dry for the first half of the day. The
area will be under a zonal flow pattern, however there is
potential that a cold front pushes into western NY late in the
day, bringing the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.
Highs on Thursday reach well into the 80s with a few valley
locations in the low 90s. With dew points in the mid to upper
60s there will be plenty of atmospheric instability around and
depending on the timing of the front, potential for strong
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Most of the guidance is starting to agree on the main frontal
passage being sometime on Friday. This will likely bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms. Exact timing of the rain and
convection remains uncertain this far out in time. There should be
at least some dry time and breaks of sun, as guidance is showing
temperatures in the low to mid-80s. Looking ahead to the weekend;
overall it is shaping up to be mainly dry and seasonable. NBM
ensemble guidance shows the possibility for a few showers or lingering
t`storms Saturday, then generally dry on Sunday. Highs in the
upper 70s to mid-80s each day with lows in the mid-50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Slow moving isolated showers have made this TAF period more
challenging. The chances of a shower directly impacting a
terminal is low, though IFR vis would be likely if it does.
Decided to not add IFR vis and heavy rain to TAFs as the showers
are slow moving enough for an amendment if need be.

Tonight, with the low still near by, IFR cigs are likely at ELM,
ITH, with BGM potentially seeing LIFR cigs. ELM has a chance at
LIFR as well if fog can form but it may be too cloudy so only
went with an IFR tempo for now. AVP has east winds aloft,
helping keep the IFR cigs at bay and RME and SYR look to be
north of most of the deeper moisture.

Tomorrow, cigs will be slow to rise and scatter out so IFR to
low MVFR is likely through mid day.

Outlook:

Tuesday afternoon...Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms
could pop up again, but overall trend is towards VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR; High pressure building
in, morning fog likely, mainly at ELM.

Friday into Saturday...Cold front could move in and stall,
leading to persistent showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...AJG