Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

014
FXUS61 KBGM 031043
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
643 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made to this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures will trend warmer early next week as a frontal
system brings chances for widespread rain and afternoon
thunderstorms, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Temperatures then fall back below normal for the second half of
the work week as the pattern remains unsettled.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Extensive clouds over the region are still expected to dissipate
during the overnight hours allowing for clearing skies in many
areas. Given rather low dewpoints in the 20s to low 30s it won`t
take more than a few hours to achieve frost and freezing conditions
and the headlines will continue into the morning.

Ridging builds overhead today and low level flow will become more
westerly during the afternoon. This will result in colder air
retreating and temperatures slightly warmer during the day with
highs in the mid to upper 50s. Winds will increase into the
afternoon with gusts peaking around 25 mph. A weak disturbance will
clip the region and bring spotty showers and sprinkles to parts of
north-central NY tonight, especially along and north of the NYS
Thruway corridor. Overnight temperatures will fall into the mid-
upper 30s and low 40s as winds gradually become calmer.

Some spotty showers may linger into early Monday up north.
Otherwise, southwest flow will advect warmer air into the region,
helping continue the warming trend through Tuesday. Temperatures
will climb into the 60s and potentially low 70s on Monday. Then most
locations are expected to see high temperatures solidly in the 70s
on Tuesday. Overnight temperatures will be a bit more mild, only
falling into the 40s and 50s both Monday and Tuesday night.

Models remain relatively consistent with a frontal system
approaching the region Tuesday with the highest and most persistent
chance of rain coming for Tuesday night to Wednesday night. Then the
model camps diverge slightly with the GFS lingering precipitation
into Thursday as a secondary wave develops on the boundary while the
ECMWF is a little faster moving things east on Thursday. The GEFS
and EC ensembles and AI models support their respective camps.

Being in the warm sector ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon
suggests the potential for thunderstorm activity with instability
projected to be 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and shear of 30 to 35
knots. Both low and mid-level lapse rates in the neighborhood of 6
to 7 C/km suggest a period to monitor for the potential of strong
storms.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Colder air will fill in behind the departing front on Thursday with
the front finally exiting the region Thursday night. Low pressure
develops along the front, lifting north into New England. Cold, wrap
around northwest flow behind this low will support a continuation of
clouds and moisture for additional rain showers on Friday.
Temperatures will fall back below normal for the late half of the
week as highs will only be in the 50s and lows drop back into the
30s and 40s. Looking at the punch of cold thicknesses, the blended
guidance may have a bit too much of a climatology slant later next
week and temperatures Thursday and Friday could very well be cooler
than this update. Will need to monitor these trends.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure is building into the region with clearing skies
and VFR conditions today and tonight. Winds will be light this morning,
and then increase across the region in the afternoon.


Outlook:

Monday... Mainly VFR, but restrictions will be possible at
times in isolated to scattered showers on Monday.

Tuesday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions
possible.

Wednesday and Thursday...Restrictions possible from rain
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAB
AVIATION...MPK