Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

299
FXUS61 KBGM 121803
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
203 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Active weather continues today with chances for strong to
severe storms developing in the afternoon. There could be two
rounds of storms; first developing this afternoon, and the
other in the evening hours around sunset.


2) A pocket of high pressure will bring warm and mainly
precipitation-free conditions tomorrow through Saturday. A
quick moving low pressure system could bring showers and storms
to the area on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

We`re beginning to see some convective initiation in western NY,
which will be the set-up for storms moving into Central NY in
the next few hours. MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg and mid-level
lapse rates of 6-6.5 C/km could allow for storms to grow severe,
with the main threats being strong to damaging winds, as well as
potential for hail above 1 inch in diameter. With any storm,
they could produce heavy downpours that may result in localized
flash flooding from excessive rainfall. There appears to be two
different waves of storms, with the first developing this
afternoon and sweeping mainly NW to SE across Central NY and NE
PA. Later this evening, around sunset and going into the
overnight hours, CAMs show a secondary wave of storms, however
are likely to be non-severe as ingredients needed would likely
be hindered after the sun sets.



KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure from Canada starts to build in tomorrow, and
mainly precipitation-free conditions, and drier and cooler air.
Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s
with dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s, making it a
beautiful end to the overall week. The one exception would be
Friday night into early Saturday, as a small shortwave will
pass to the north, and may bring small chances for precipitation
to northern Central NY, but confidence is low and guidance has
been trending more north. The high will propagate eastward
Saturday night into Sunday as a low pressures system approaches
the Great Lakes from the north central US. Scattered rain
showers and storms are expected Sunday. If the track of the low
is to our north, we will be in the warm sector and could see a
ribbon of high instability build into the area from the SW
before the low drags a cold front through the area. 0-6km bulk
shear from the low and stronger mid to upper level winds from
the jet overhead could provide storm organization and, combined
with the instability, produce severe storms. Confidence in this
is low at the moment given the track of the low is still
uncertain and severe weather will be dependent on the low taking
a particular track. Either way, we will be monitoring how this
system develops.

Behind the low, a strong high pressure system will build in from the
west. This will bring NNW flow that will push Canadian air into the
region and keep temperatures slightly below normal and keep us dry
into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the next few hours
before scattered showers and thunderstorms begin to develop. The
main window of concern for the terminals looks to be between
21Z-04Z with TEMPO groups in for nearly all the terminals for at
least MVFR restrictions possible. Rain could be locally heavy
enough for some brief IFR restrictions.

After the convection diminishes, there is the potential for
some low stratus or fog to develop early tomorrow morning,
mainly in the typical 08Z-12Z window as clouds try to break and
low level moisture lingers. Confidence is highest at ELM, but
restrictions also seem possible at the remaining terminals,
except for SYR.

After the morning low clouds and fog clear, mainly VFR
conditions are expected through the rest of the day with just a
slight chance of a pop up shower or storm.

Outlook:

Thursday afternoon and evening...Mainly VFR. Areas of low
clouds and fog possible later Thursday night.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. Areas of low clouds or fog
and associated restrictions possible early each morning; low
chance for an isolated shower or storm Friday.

Sunday...Increasing chances for showers/storms, especially
later in the day and into Sunday night.

Monday...A low chance for showers/storms and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...DK