Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

207
FXUS61 KBGM 262358
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
758 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Additional enhancement of forecast rain amounts for Poconos-
Catskills Monday-Tuesday from topographical influences. Slight
Risk for excessive rainfall by Tuesday-Tuesday night generally
east of I-81 in PA and south of I-88 in NY.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Though just a few scattered showers and isolated thunder are
bringing the weekend to a close, our pattern is turning more
active with several rounds of showers and occasional
thunderstorms through at least midweek. Locally heavy rainfall,
and isolated gusty storms, could occur.

2) A relatively drier period is anticipated late this week, but
there is uncertainty for how long it takes for a low pressure system
to finally exit the region to take away lingering showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Weak passing waves will continue to interact with a gradually
moistening environment this afternoon through Monday, as a broader
upper trough gradually digs over the Northeast. A more
significant low pressure system will then develop over our
region Tuesday with increasing potential impacts, which could
linger into Wednesday.

This afternoon-early evening, flow is weak and instability
limited. Diurnally-driven showers will be scattered and thunder
isolated non-severe. Dewpoints have crept up which will lead to
areas of fog formation tonight-early Monday as cloud cover aloft
decreases and allows some radiational cooling.

For Monday, Precipitable Water Values continue to gradually
increase, yet some ridging will also occur aloft ahead of the
more significant low approaching from the west. This may limit
coverage of diurnal showers-thunderstorms. That said, there will
still probably be small shortwaves embedded within the ridge.
There will also be modestly more Convective Available Potential
Energy, especially in Northeast PA and thus the marginal risk
for Severe for the threat of isolated downbursts from cores.
Timing of modeled shortwave and orographic effects will favor
Poconos-Catskills coverage-wise for showers and storms. Things
should be more scattered to the west.

Locally heavy rainfall cannot totally be ruled out Monday,
though recent dry weather should allow our area to generally
take initial rains well. However, as additional waves occur
into Tuesday it could be more of an issue. Models generally cut
off an upper low and gradually stack it with the incoming
surface low, to cause slow movement of features with elevated
precipitable Water values around 1.75 inch Tuesday-Tuesday
night. It could even linger into Wednesday. From I-88 southward
in NY, and from I-81 eastward in PA, Weather Prediction Center
has Slight Risk for excessive rainfall and at least Marginal
Risk for the rest of the area. The forecast has areal averages
of 1.5-2.5 inches with locally higher amounts for Wyoming
Valley-Poconos-Catskills; more like 1-1.5 inches to the west.
Orographic enhancements, and slow-movement or training of
heavier showers, will have to be monitored closely for localized
flooding potential. For Tuesday-Wednesday, severe risk is more
likely to be shunted to our south in the warm sector of the low,
as things become progressively cooler and stratiform with time
in our region. Still, a gusty few cells could occur Tuesday in
Northeast PA before the low translates overhead.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Cutoff stacked lows often take longer than expected to break
down. Thus we still have a lingering chance of showers and
thunderstorms Thursday, especially east of I-81. There is
uncertainty but these chances could easily go higher given the
trend in the latest models to keep the upper low in our region
for a longer time. Eventually the low departs in favor ridging
which will bring at least a window of drier and warmer weather
Friday-Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thunderstorms are winding down this evening though AVP may see
some showers and thunderstorms linger till around 2Z. These
showers have really moistened the boundary layer so confidence
continues to increase for fog overnight across many of the
terminals. ELM has the best chance and will likely see below
airport mins at some point between 9Z and 12Z. BGM and ITH also
have a good chance of either fog or LIFR cigs. There is
uncertainty at AVP and RME as showers were close but never
impacted close to the terminals. SYR had storms east but missed
the valley so confidence there is very low for fog or any
restrictions but kept a MVFR vis tempo in.

After the morning fog clears tomorrow, isolated to scattered
showers and storms are expected to develop after 18Z with
daytime heating. These will be scattered in nature similar to
today so added a prob30 for best timing at terminals with the
greatest storm potential.

Outlook:

Monday Night through Thursday...Scattered showers and/or
thunderstorms resulting in occasional restrictions, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. Valley fog possible,
especially at KELM during the late-night and early morning
hours.

Friday...Mainly VFR; low chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...AJG/DK