Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

303
FXUS61 KBGM 172327
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
627 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm weather tonight into Friday morning as a strong
area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. Winds
pick up ahead of the front Thursday afternoon with the breezy
conditions expected most of Friday. As the front moves through
Thursday night into Friday, rain is expected with a brief change
over to snow once the front is through Friday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The near term is looking warm as the upper level ridging
strengthens ahead of a deep surface low moving through the
northern plains. 925 and 850 mb winds increase as the upper
level ridge axis moves east with a deepening trough approaching
from the west. The high temperatures tomorrow are a bit
uncertain as the 850 mb temperatures climb to near or above 10C.
With the solstice right around the corner, there is low
incoming solar radiation and with snow cover, it may be hard to
really warm the boundary layer below the strong inversion
created by the warm air advection in the low and mid levels.
Still, we expect temperatures into the mid to upper 40s and may
be even a few 50s by the afternoon. Winds aloft may also start
to mix down and that could help with bringing some of that
warmer air aloft down faster but given the stability in forecast
soundings, that likely will not happen till the overnight
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As the deepening low moves into the Great Lakes Thursday night,
the upper level trough associated with it becomes negatively
tilted with a strengthening 250 mb jet. Precipitation moves in
from both the south as a weak surface low moves up the Mid
Atlantic as well as from the west as the cold front associated
with the low approaches. With temperatures well above freezing,
precipitation Thursday night into Friday morning will be rain.

Winds will be strong through the night with temperatures likely
continuing to warm under the strengthening warm air advection
after sunset. 850 mb winds top out at near 70 mph but forecast
soundings show a strong inversion below the high winds.
Historically, it is hard for S to SW winds to break through
strong inversions outside of mountain and ridge tops as well as
some downslope areas of the Finger Lakes. Wind advisories have
been hoisted for now given the uncertainty in the downward
mixing Thursday night into Friday.

As the front moves through Friday morning, the best chance to
see higher winds will be along the line of showers with the
front. Given the forcing in place aloft with the negatively
tilted trough and being at the entrance of a strengthening jet
streak aloft, there could be enough lift to get a few embedded
thunderstorms along the front. Any deep convection could easily
mix down the high winds aloft so there is a possibility of some
severe showers late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Fridays temperatures will likely be falling all day as the
front moves through in the morning with flow aloft becoming
northwesterly. The cold air advection behind the departing front
Friday will limit the amount of post frontal precipitation but
a brief period of snow is likely before the precipitation comes
to an end. Lake effect snow develops, though forecast soundings
are not too favorable for inland extent. Upper level ridging is
building in fast late Friday into Friday night with the
subsidence inversion dropping down below 850 mb by Saturday
morning will limit the depth of the snow bands, their intensity,
and duration of the event.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term has flow aloft returning to a more zonal and fast
pattern. Strong high pressure to the north may limit any warm
ups without any deep troughs that develop in the central plains.
The coldest air mass is still locked up in the northwest
territories so any cold we get will be fairly seasonable as
well. All the global models show several shortwaves moving
through the Northeast this weekend into next week. However,
without much moisture return, most of these shortwaves will be
dry and mainly help with the development of some lake effect
snow at times.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Any remaining MVFR ceilings should lift to VFR early this
evening. Attention then turns to developing LLWS out of the
southwest around 40 knots tomorrow morning. The LLWS should
persist throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Uncertainity
does increase a bit toward the TAF period with regards to how
strong the LLWS will be. Also some surface gusts around 20 knots
are possible as well.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...Strong frontal passage with
rain showers, possibly mixing with or ending as snow showers
along with associated restrictions. Strong LLWS likely Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night.

Saturday...Mostly VFR

Saturday night through Monday...Scattered snow showers across
Central NY with occasional restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 1 AM EST Saturday for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Wind Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 1 AM EST Saturday for
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...MPK/MWG