Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

422
FXUS61 KBGM 071831
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
231 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
High temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be a few degrees
warmer than the previous forecast. Otherwise, no significant
change with the latest forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of fog are expected in valley locations tonight and
Wednesday morning before a couple days of warmer temperatures
and more humid air across all of central NY and northeast PA.

2) Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms return to the
region Thursday and Friday before quiet weather and high
pressure build back in for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Departing low pressure off the New England coast that brought
widespread rainfall of 1 to 4 inches or more to the region will
continue to move to the east/northeast tonight. A weak surface
high on the western edge of the low is expected to form over the
interior Northeast tonight and work in combination with the
overall wet antecedent surface conditions to produce areas of
fog, especially in the valley locations. Drier air will continue
to filter in from the north tonight and cause cloud cover to
dissipate. Mostly clear skies and light winds combined with the
near surface moisture should be sufficient for fog development.

On Wednesday, the nearly stationary surface high across the
region will combine with building heights aloft to produce large
scale suppression and a deep layer of dry air to keep weather
conditions quiet and dry. A robust amount of sun on Wednesday
along with a high July sun angle should allow temperatures to
climb into the 80s for much of the region of central NY and ne
PA. Surface dew points in the low to mid 60s will make it feel a
couple degrees warmer than the air temperature.

A weak short wave may traverse the region quickly Wed night
which could limit the extent of fog, but there is still quite a
bit of uncertainty (only 15 to 20% chance of showers) in this
wave and the chances for rain.

Temperatures in the morning on Thursday will start out very
mild in the mid to upper 60s, along with nearly saturated
conditions and high dew points in the 60s as well. As the
boundary layer mixes through the day, the morning fog and low
clouds will dissipate and allow conditions to be favorable for
further heating. With 850mb temperatures +16 to +18 degC and
residual large scale suppression ahead of the incoming
shortwave, surface temperatures should be able to climb well
into the 80s and potentially a few lower 90s are not out of the
question. Heat indices 90-95 are possible, especially in the
lake plain south of Lake Ontario and the interior valley
locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As temperatures and humidity increase on Thursday, the threat
for scattered showers and thunderstorms increases as well. A
southern wave will slide east across portions of the northern
Mid Atlantic region in the early afternoon and trigger a few
showers and storms from the southern tier of NY south into
northeast PA. A northern wave will move slowly in from the
northwest during the day and produce a broad area of convection
that will move NW to SE through the region into the evening and
overnight hours.

Thunderstorm parameters are not overly indicative of severe
weather on Thursday. ML CAPE values around 800-1000 J/kg and
steep low level lapse rates by the early afternoon will create
favorable conditions, however there does appear to be several
capping inversions that need to be overcome to be able to tap
into this energy. The shear on Thursday is also unfavorable for
sustained and mature convection. The early afternoon convection
in ne PA should be on the weaker side, and there is likely more
concern for strong to a few severe storms with the incoming
front from the northwest where wrn/central NY will have more
time to overcome the inversions and will also be able to tap
into slightly more deep layer shear.

The heat is dampened a bit on Friday but temperatures should
still be able to climb into the 80s for much of the region. Dew
points remain in the 60s and lower 70s and the short wave may
stall out across the area to allow convection to develop Friday
afternoon in the vicinity of this boundary. We will need to
monitor the threat for stronger storms on Friday and Fri night
along this boundary. Deep layer shear will be enhanced with the
combination of a modest jet streak aloft and an embedded short
wave.

During Friday night the long wave trough rotates through and
brings in a more mild air mass with temperatures in the 70s and
lower 80s for the weekend and much lower humidity. Rain chances
will also be significantly reduced this weekend under a fairly
dry pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR cigs early this afternoon will slowly scatter out, though
AVP may hold on to MVFR cigs through tonight. There is a small
chance of showers developing in the Southern Tier early this
evening. Potential for MVFR vis at ELM, BGM, and ITH if a shower
could impact a terminal but odds are low so left out of the TAFs.

Tonight is a favorable set up for fog, with ELM of course having
high chances of LIFR cigs and vis. Potential for vis down to a
half mile or worse but kept in 2 miles just in case it becomes a
low stratus deck. Valley fog will likely get deep enough to
affect BGM and ITH, though did not make it predominant yet. AVP
and SYR likely escape chances of fog thanks to clouds at AVP,
and this is not a favorable pattern for fog at SYR. RME will
likely have fog form to the north, that could sneak into the
terminal at times.

This fog lifts and dissipates by around 13Z with VFR conditions
tomorrow at all terminals.

Outlook:

Tuesday night..Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms could
pop up again, but overall trend is towards VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR; High pressure building
in, morning fog likely, mainly at ELM.

Friday into Saturday...Cold front could move in and stall,
leading to persistent showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.

Sunday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog
potential at ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJT
AVIATION...AJG