Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

831
FXUS61 KBGM 031815
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
115 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures continue through at least early next week,
with well above normal temperatures through this week. .

2) An active pattern starts Thursday with showers at times through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Persistent ridging along with a passing warm front will bring
temperatures well above normal for the entire area through the rest
of this week. Wednesday and Thursday will be the two warmest days
before a cold front crosses the area, with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s for most areas. Temperatures will cool each day for Friday
through Sunday, first behind the cold front later Thursday, then
with another cold front and sfc low crossing the area on Saturday.
With the cooling temperatures, afternoon highs will approach, but are
expected to remain above normal for Sunday and Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The cold front associated with an occluding sfc low will track
across the region on Thursday, bringing the best potential for
widespread showers in the past couple of weeks. Most of the showers
will move across the area during the early to mid morning hours,
amounting to a tenth to quarter of an inch of rainfall. The sfc low
will slowly track across the Great Lakes and to New England from
late Wednesday through Sunday, becoming vertically stacked with its
mid and upper level lows. This will result in a prolonged period
where showers will be possible at times within the cyclonic flow for
most of the area. Behind the passing cold front on Thursday dryer
air will move into the region behind the passing cold front,
providing a break in the showers. There is some uncertainty among
guidance for how much dry air moves into the region and how much the
showers diminish. As the mid & upper level lows/troughs approach and
then cross the area, the potential for showers will increase some to
the west with some increased potential for lake enhancement off of
the eastern Great Lakes as 850H temperatures cool. Shower potential
will increase late Friday into Saturday from west to east, from the
mid and upper level lows and troughs crossing the area. Shower will
linger into Sunday morning.

For Friday into Saturday, a wave of low pressure will track along
the coast along the slow moving frontal boundary from Thursday,
increasing the potential for showers/rain for the far eastern areas.
There is still plenty of uncertainty at this point for how far west
the coastal wave will track, but most guidance keeps it just east of
the BGM forecast area.

Another trough dropping southeast out of Canada will bring another
chance for showers late Sunday night into Monday, with lake
enhancement adding to the shower potential.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Light scattered rain showers continue to push through CNY early
this afternoon, and should be east of the area in a couple of
hours. MVFR ceilings are holding on at RME/ITH/BGM, but should
lift in the next hour or two as satellite images show the cloud
deck scattering to the west. High pressure centered to our east
will control the weather pattern through the TAF period. The
positioning of the ridge to the east will allow SW flow to push
warm and moist air into the region through the overnight hours.
Guidance keeping conditions VFR through the TAF period, but is
hinting at a low chance for MVFR conditions around sunrise with
temps falling to the dewpoint. Winds are expected to remain
active through the night, which would limit fog development
outside of sheltered valleys. Confidence in restrictions
developing is too low to include any in the TAFs, but if we can
get a period of clear skies and light to calm winds, MVFR
restrictions cannot be ruled out at ITH/ELM/BGM. Hopefully
guidance will show some better signals with this evenings TAF
set.


Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night...MVFR/Fuel Alt restrictions possible.

Thursday through Saturday...Showers may bring occasional
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJW
AVIATION...JTC