Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

827
FXUS61 KBGM 072330
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
630 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures were lowered through the rest of the day where skies
were slower to clear.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms
through the region late today and tonight.

2) High pressure and warming temperatures are then expected from
Sunday through early next week.

3) A strong cold front moves through late in the week with showers
and much colder temperatures to follow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An early round of showers and extensive cloud cover initially kept
temperatures cooler than forecasted. Where skies have cleared,
conditions have begun to quickly warm up as temperatures are now in
the upper 50s to low 60s. Elsewhere, temperatures remain cooler
under the cloud cover that has been slower to erode. Given this,
temperatures were adjusted cooler by blending in the Conshort, NBM,
and NBM tenth percentile. A cold front is still on track to bring
showers and thunderstorms to the region late today and overnight.
With the clearing that has taken place, this will be the area to
watch this afternoon. Despite skies becoming sunny, there is
uncertainty if enough warming will take place to erode an inversion
and lead to an environment unstable enough for stronger storms. The
HRRR has this inversion eroding while the NAM does not. If there is
instability, it is expected to mainly be elevated with MUCAPE
modeled at 500 to 1000 J/kg. The 0-6 km bulk shear will be quite
strong though with values of at least 50 kts. If the stable
layer near the surface does not completely mix out, then there
could be an area of enhanced low-level helicity. While the risk
is quite low and the ingredients would all need to come into
place at the right time, a spin up cannot be ruled out. Any
severe threat should quickly diminish after sunset as the
environment becomes more stable. However, as mentioned, showers
and thunderstorms will still be possible overnight.

In addition to the severe potential, there is also a risk for heavy
rainfall. PWATs will peak around 1.3 inches, which is high for this
time of year. With a wet ground and some lingering snow to melt,
there could end up being some ponding in poor drainage areas. Most
rivers and streams remain low enough where those should not be a
concern, though rises are expected after the rain today.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The front and rain showers will exit the region early Sunday
morning. High pressure then builds into the region and should lead
to at least a couple of days of dry weather. Some models are showing
some spotty showers Tuesday during the day ahead of the next system,
but this forecast continues to keep conditions dry for this time
period. After Sunday, temperatures will trend warmer through midweek
with a chance for 70s in some valley locations by Tuesday.

With these warmer conditions, any remaining snowpack will continue
to melt and lead to runoff. This will likely lead to rivers and
streams rising more early next week. However, with no additional
rainfall, these rises should be minimal and will quickly trend back
down as RFC forecasts project.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

Conditions will remain warm Wednesday as the region will be in the
warm sector of the next low pressure system. As the system
approaches, rain showers will spread across the region throughout
the day and continue overnight. There will likely be a brief dry
period before a cold front sweeps through the region on Thursday
with rain changing to snow. Following the front, temperatures will
then trend colder as highs fall back into the 40s by Friday. A
clipper system will pass north of the region, which should keep
conditions mild enough for mainly rain but snow showers cannot be
ruled out, especially during the onset of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A couple of lines of showers, with some embedded storms, are
expected to move through the area through the rest of the
evening and into overnight. The main line with embedded storms has
passed ELM, and just went through ITH. Chances for a storm has
been taken out of SYR and RME as confidence increases. BGM will
have the next chances for a quick passing storm between 00Z and
02Z. The other line of showers, with little to no chances for
an embedded storm, will pass NW to SE between 06z and 09z.


Outlook:

Sunday...Lingering MVFR ceilings possible in the morning, then
becoming VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR expected.

Wednesday...Rain expected with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible.

Thursday...Becoming cooler with rain showers and associated
restrictions possible. Some wet snow can possibly mix in in at
the northern terminals as temperatures fall.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...KL