Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

343
FXUS61 KBGM 240613
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
213 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes needed with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another slug of heavy rain will push through the region
tonight into Monday morning.

2) The weather pattern is looking mainly dry through the
remainder of the week, as northerly flow develops with average
to slightly below average temperatures possibly by the second
half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

More widespread moderate to heavy rain will push through the
region tonight. A shortwave coupled with being in the right
entrance region of a jet max moves overhead late tonight and
triggers the redevelopment of rain showers and possibly embedded
thunderstorms. Latest model guidance is showing some elevated
instability and this could bring enhanced rainfall rates
tonight. After yesterday`s rain the ground is saturated and if
heavy rainfall sets up tonight in some of our more flash flood
prone areas, then some minor hydro problems could arise.

Dry air filters in out of the NW behind this shortwave Memorial
Day morning, with showers tapering off from west to east by mid
to late morning. Sunshine also returns and temperatures warm up
in time for outdoor activities Memorial Day afternoon and
evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Models are still advertising a large Omega block setting up
across the US, with a trough in the Intermountain West, a large
ridge in the central US into Canada, and a trough in New
England. This pattern will cut off moisture advection from the
gulf into our area, so this week is looking mostly dry. Given
the NW flow and heading into summer time, there is a chance of a
few isolated storms in the afternoons with the development of
instability. However, the lack of low level moisture should
limit shower chances with only a chance for a few isolated
showers or thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Models are still hinting at a pocket of cold air descending
down the edge of the ridge into the Northeast U.S. towards the
end of the week. Hopefully this will set up further east of our
area, but nonetheless it will need to be watched as it could
lead to areas of frost overnight by the end of the week and into
next weekend. There remains a large ensemble spread in 500 mb
heights towards the end of the week, so expect changes to the
forecast in the coming days as models try to get a grip on how
the pattern will unfold.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
After a bit of a lull around some of the terminals early this
morning, showers are expected to fill back in before tapering
off around 16Z. However, showers do look to hold on a bit longer
around SYR and RME into the early afternoon. As a result, a mix
of MVFR/Fuel-alt restrictions is expected during much of this
time, with brief IFR restrictions possible if any shower becomes
locally heavy.

After this latest batch of showers, some slight improvement in
restrictions is expected before yet again another batch of rain
moves in from the west this evening, generally after 02Z. There
could be some elevated convection embedded in this next batch of
rain that can lead to locally heavy downpours and IFR
restrictions, so this will be monitored.

Throughout the TAF period, AVP remains a tricky forecast as an
east-southeast wind typically results in ceilings not dropping
as low as guidance supports, and that is the trend currently.
Guidance suggests low clouds/drizzle and IFR or worse conditions
much of the day despite the downslope flow, so confidence here
is low and will be monitored closely.

Outlook:

Late Sunday night through Monday morning...Additional scattered
rain showers and fog. MVFR and IFR restrictions expected.

Monday Afternoon...Clearing with VFR conditions expected

Monday Night...Patchy fog with associated restrictions possible.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...DK