Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

127
FXUS61 KBGM 120555
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
155 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes with this forecast update. Just minor tweaks
to the timing and chances of rain on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday
with the upper level low moving through. Also minor temperatures
adjustments were made based on the latest ensemble data through the
week; it is trending warmer Saturday, Sunday and especially on
Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...


1) After a cold and frosty start this morning, it will turn sunny
and seasonable this afternoon.

2) Another trough of low pressure moves in Wednesday into Thursday,
keeping the cooler weather around with widespread showers and a
slight chance for thunderstorms over the region.

3) A pattern change heading into the weekend and early next week
will allow for much warmer air across the Northeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Clear skies and some patchy fog under an area of high pressure have
allowed temperatures to plummet into the upper 20s to mid-30s early
this morning. Frost and Freeze headlines remain in effect through
mid morning. After that, the high pressure center will keep
conditions dry and mostly sunny through the day. With the full May
sunshine, expect temperatures to warm up nicely into the mid-50s to
mid-60s across the area this afternoon. With the deep dry air mass
in place humidity values look to fall into the mid-20s to 30 percent
range this afternoon. Overall, expect light northwest winds between
5 to 12 mph through the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Clouds quickly increase from west to east over the region after
sunset this evening, with rain showers arriving overnight. These
clouds and showers are associated with a low pressure system
tracking across the Central Great Lakes. By Wednesday this low will
track just north of Lake Ontario, putting our forecast area under a
deep, moist southerly flow. Widespread showers are expected, and
with some modest instability (in the warm sector) there will be a
slight chance to low end chance for a few thunderstorms as well.
Rainfall amounts are no forecast to be too high, and should range
from 1/4 to 3/4s of an inch. South winds increase between 10-20 mph
through the day, and temperatures remain on the cool side, in the
upper 50s to 60s.

Then, the closed mid to upper level low settles directly over the
area Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring some colder air
aloft to the region, with numerous showers still expected...and even
an isolated thunderstorm still possible. Temperatures will trend
colder, with lows well down into the 40s and highs only in the 50s
to perhaps low 60s Thursday afternoon. Rainfall amounts should again
be on the light side, under a quarter inch.

The upper level low only slowly drifts east into Southern New
England on Friday. This will put our area on the western edge of the
moisture, with some upper level ridging starting to build into western
areas later in the day. Therefore, while there can still be some
isolated to scattered showers around for a portion of the day, eventually
it looks to turn partly sunny and milder by afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The upcoming weekend will feature a flat ridge to zonal weather
pattern over Central NY and Northeast PA. This will keep things
mainly dry and partly sunny. However a few fast moving disturbances
can still bring a slight chance to low end chance for a few showers
or pop up thunderstorms, especially on Saturday. Temperatures are
forecast to be much warmer reaching into the 70s and even low 80s
for the valleys each day. Overnight lows will be mild in the 40s to
mid-50s. The warming trend continues into Monday, with the latest
guidance suggesting highs reaching well into the 80s with some
modest increase in humidity values. There will be a low chance for
scattered showers or thunderstorms as a front lingers well off to
our west across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. The Bermuda
high should slow this front and increase the warm southwesterly flow
into our area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours (at
least through 06Z Wednesday). That being said, there is a slight
chance for some brief shallow fog/mist to develop at KELM early
this morning between 09Z and 12Z, so a TEMPO group for MVFR
visby restrictions was added with this TAF set. Some guidance is
hinting at IFR restrictions there, but confidence was not high
enough to include in the TAF at this time. Otherwise, mainly
clear skies are expected until this evening when clouds increase
from west to east ahead of the next system.

Outlook:

Wednesday through Thursday night...Scattered showers with
associated restrictions likely. Small chance for thunder
Wednesday afternoon.

Friday...Gradual improvement back to VFR by the afternoon.

Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday afternoon.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ038>040.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ043-044-047-
     048-072.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009-022>025-
     036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ015>018.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...BJG