Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

586
FXUS61 KBGM 061736
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1236 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
415 AM Update...

Cancelled winter weather advisory for Oneida County, as
temperatures remain above freezing this morning and widespread freezing
rain is no longer expected.

Previous Discussion...
Lowered icing amounts through this morning, as temperatures are
falling slower than forecast and a dry slot has reduced the
amount of QPF that will be received. Freezing rain is looking
less likely in the Poconos, as temperatures are struggling to
drop below freezing. A winter weather advisory remains in
effect for now, as there is still some potential for a light
glaze icing by sunrise.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Freezing rain and freezing drizzle through this morning for
parts of the Catskills and Mohawk Valley.

2) A cold front will bring another round of rain showers on
Saturday, especially late in the day and in the evening. A few
thunderstorms may also develop and result in gusty winds and
small hail, mainly west of I-81.

3) Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend through
much of next week. This warm weather, combined with multiple
rounds of rainfall will bring an increasing risk for some
flooding, perhaps including isolated ice jams.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Temperatures have fallen below freezing across far eastern
Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan County early this morning and
there remains a threat for freezing rain or drizzle through
daybreak. Oneida County remains above freezing, as well as Wayne
and Pike County in NEPA, but temperatures may still drop over
the next few hours for a few pockets of freezing rain or drizzle
to develop. Due to the uncertainty, we decided to leave the
winter weather advisory as is for now, and will reassess a
little later this morning to see if temperatures respond.
Otherwise, temperatures will eventually climb well above
freezing later today, and no winter weather threats are then
expected for at least the next 5 or 6 days.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following the passage of a warm front Saturday morning, our
region will be in the warm sector with temperatures rising to
the mid 50s to mid 60s for most areas. After a morning batch of
showers, some partial sunshine may break out as well. Then by
the evening, a cold front will move through the area, which will
bring another round of rain showers. Forecast soundings are
indicating a strong low level inversion, but there is some
decent elevated instability noted, with 500 - 1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE above this inversion. 50-60kts of 0-6km bulk shear will
likely be present and as a result, and if the low level
inversion can mix out, then a few of these showers and isolated
thunderstorms could produce some locally strong winds, mainly
west of I-81. Also, the freezing level is only looking to be at
about 6 to 7K feet and there should be enough instability and
shear for the possibility of some small hail as well. However, the
greater risk for any severe thunderstorms will likely be west
of our region, across western NY and southward into the Ohio
Valley, but there is a small potential for some strong
thunderstorms to persist into our region Saturday evening. As a
result, SPC has parts of our region west of I-81 highlighted in
a "Marginal Risk" for severe thunderstorms in their Day 3
Convective Outlook.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures will turn above average over the next week and
the warmer temperatures will be combined with multiple chances
for rain, as several disturbances push through. Rivers and
streams will likely see some decent rises this weekend into
early next week. As mentioned in Key Message 2, temperatures
Saturday are expected to be well above average with highs in the
mid 50s to mid 60s. PWATs will also be around or slightly above
one inch, which is anomalously high for this time of year.

River ensemble forecasts show several forecast points
potentially reaching action stage with the possibility of minor
flooding at a few locations. Despite the cold frontal passage,
temperatures Sunday will remain above normal with highs mainly
in the 50s. Southwest flow returns early next week allowing
temperatures to remain in the 50s and 60s and possibly even
warmer by midweek. Rivers and streams will need close monitoring
during this timeframe for potential flooding, including
possible isolated ice jams.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A complex low-pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes
will maintain restrictive flight categories across the regional
terminals through the forecast period.

Currently, a mix of IFR/LIFR (KBGM, KELM, KITH) and MVFR (KSYR,
KRME, KAVP) prevails. Low-level moisture trapped beneath a
strengthening inversion is keeping ceilings suppressed, with
localized fog/mist (BR) reducing visibilities primarily at the
higher elevation terminals and even into valley locations.
Expect a slight, temporary improvement in CIGS/VSBY through 22Z
this afternoon before the boundary layer cools and saturates
further this evening.

The primary concern overnight and into Saturday morning shifts
to Low-Level Wind Shear (LLWS). A potent low-level jet (LLJ)
will develop at ~2kft, with southwesterly winds increasing to
35-45 kts. This will create significant speed and directional
shear as surface winds remain generally out of the southeast.
Surface gusts will also begin to mix down after 07Z-10Z, with
gusts of 20-25 kts possible, particularly at KSYR and KITH.

Outlook:
Saturday afternoon...Some improvement to MVFR in the western
portion of the CWA Saturday afternoon, before CIGs could drop
lower again Saturday night across the entire area. Showers and
possibly a thunderstorm as a front moves through Saturday
evening into tonight.

Sunday...MVFR CIGs possible in the morning, then becoming VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR expected.

Wednesday...Rain expected with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...ES/JTC/MPK