Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

131
FXUS61 KBGM 022358
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
758 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjustments made to the coverage of showers and thunderstorms
through the holiday weekend. Slight adjustments made to
temperatures and dewpoints to line up better with observations.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions will continue through Friday.

2) Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected for
the holiday weekend. Some storms may be strong to severe on
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Another dangerously hot and humid afternoon across the region.
Temperatures currently in the low 90s should rise another 4-5
degrees as the afternoon progresses, and with dewpoints in the
low 70s, heat indices will climb into the 100-110 range this
afternoon and early evening. Overnight temps will not see much
relief, with lows only falling into the low to mid 70s.

Friday will be "cooler" as the ridge begins to slide to the WSW.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s but humidity, especially in
the valleys, will remain and keep afternoon heat indices in the
low to mid 100s. Overnight lows will remain warm, with upper 60s
to low 70s expected.

A cool front is expected to move in from the north on Saturday
as the ridge continues to flatten and slide to the WSW. Timing
of this front is still somewhat uncertain, with guidance showing
an early morning passage to early afternoon passage. Most
guidance does show the front stalling out around the NY/PA
border with mid to upper 80s to the north of the boundary and
low to mid 90s to the south. The humidity will also get knocked
down a bit as well, with dewpoints expected to be in the low to
mid 60s to the north of the front and mid to upper 70s to the
south. Luckily, it seems like the days of 70+ dewpoints have
left the area.

Cooler temperatures are expected for the start of next week as a
trough moves into the area, bringing more cloud coverage and
rain showers.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Once again we are situated on the NW quadrant of the strong
ridge that has impacted our region the past few days. This "Ring
of Fire" pattern makes thunderstorm forecasting difficult. There
is ample CAPE available with the extremely hot and humid
conditions, but there us a mid level cap of warm temperatures
that keeps free convection from happening. These patterns
usually require a disturbance to ride the edge of the ridge and
provide the lift needed to break this cap and kick off showers
and storms. These disturbances are usually leftover energy from
Mesoscale Convective Complexes that form in the Midwest and ride
the ridge into our area. If guidance does not properly
initialize the location and timing of these systems,
forecasting the timing of storms in our area is very difficult,
which has been the case for the past couple of days.

Today, we have ample CAPE in place but there is not a strong
disturbance expected to move through the area and we are
missing out on stronger 0-6km bulk shear(only around 20kts)
needed to organize the storms that form. But because the
instability is so great, an isolated severe storm cannot be
ruled out north of the Southern Tier. Model soundings are
showing very strong inverted V profiles and Downdraft CAPE in
the 1000-1500j/kg range. These numbers show that a strong
updraft that collapses would be able to produce a localize
microburst. The best chance for this currently looks to be in
the late afternoon to evening hours.

Friday will see better chances for more widespread severe storms
during the afternoon and evening hours. Very high instability
will once again be present, with 0-6km bulk shear increasing to
30-40kts. The energy from a MCS currently over IA/MN is
expected to track into the region Friday afternoon, helping
break any mid-level cap that might be present. SPC has placed
out area in a Slight Risk for severe storms, and the current
parameters in the forecast match up with this outlook well.

The 4th of July is unfortunately forecast to have thunderstorms,
but the timing and location of the front will help drive where
the storms form. A couple of disturbances are forecast to move
through the area, but these will be highly dependent on the
track and speed they are on as they exit the upper Midwest and
move into the Great Lakes and Canada. The past couple of model
runs have been widely varying so confidence in where
precipitation occurs on Saturday is low at this time.
Currently, the best chance for severe storms is across the
Wyoming Valley, stretching through the Poconos and into the
southern Catskills.

The pattern will change to start the work week, with the strong
ridge retrograding to the west and a trough moving into the
Great Lakes region. This will bring us a chance for rain
showers and storms into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have been popping up early
this evening, but much of this activity looks to remain away
from the terminals, so VFR conditions are expected at this time
through at least early tomorrow afternoon. Winds will becoming
mainly light and variable later tonight.

Westerly winds are expected to increase late tomorrow morning
into the afternoon with gusts similar to this afternoon around
20 knots. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
also expected to return later tomorrow afternoon and into
tomorrow evening. Confidence in timing and location of any
convection is too low to include anything in the TAFs at this
time, but the best chance to see any showers and thunderstorms
seems to be after about 21Z tomorrow.

Outlook:

Friday evening through Sunday...Mostly VFR, but intermittent
restrictions will be possible with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

Sunday Night through Monday...Restrictions possible due to
widespread showers and afternoon isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a low chance for additional showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Current High Temperature Records:

7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

Forecasts for 7/2 are at or just over the daily records.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...DK
CLIMATE...MDP