Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

861
FXUS61 KBGM 271734
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
134 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chances of precipitation were increased this afternoon, mainly
through the Southern Tier with deeper cumulus clouds being
observed on Satellite.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few showers and thunderstorms will linger this afternoon,
mainly for the Southern Tier and south, before warming and
drying Sunday and Monday.

2) Heat and humidity will be increasing through this week
leading to elevated heat indices.

3) With the heat and humidity, Tuesday through the end of the
week could have daily isolated to scattered thunderstorms
developing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak surface low coupled with a low amplitude 500 mb
shortwave has helped keep rain showers going across the Wyoming
Valley into the Poconos. On the north edge of the cloud deck,
through the Southern Tier, there has been some instability
developing and eroding CIN evident by some building cumulus.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms were increased from about 4
pm through 8 pm for the Southern Tier and NEPA. Farther north,
high pressure aloft has helped dry air mix down and limit CU
development so chances were kept near 0.

The upper level ridge that will bring us the heat this next
week begins to build in tomorrow into Monday. With subsidence
increasing, mid level lapse rates are not as favorable for
maintaining updrafts and with northerly flow still at 850
advecting in drier air, it will be hard to get a shower or storm
to develop. Still cant completely get ruled out if
evapotranspiration is able to maintain boundary layer moisture
as dry air mixes in through peak heating but for now, chances of
rain or thunderstorms were kept out for most of the region.
Monday really has the upper level ridge build in with dry air in
the low and mid levels so only a few afternoon cumulus is
possible along with high cirrus at times.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A strong ridge builds into the Eastern US this next week with
temperatures and dew points gradually increasing each day
through late week. 500 mb heights rise over 590 dm with 850 mb
temperatures greater than 20C so afternoon highs will be well
into the 90s for most of the region starting Wednesday through
the remainder of the week. Dew points look to climb into the
upper 60s and low 70s as well. Some of the ensembles even have
mid 70s for dew points, and normally that would be unlikely but
soil moisture values across much of the Ohio River Valley (where
our surface winds will be originating from) is well above
average. This could help continue to moisten the boundary layer
and keep those dew points higher. One thing that could limit our
warmer temperatures and prevent upper 90s and even a few 100s
in urban areas for air temperatures will be afternoon
convection. Despite the ridge, there will not be a lot of CIN so
showers and storms could develop early afternoon and help keep
highs slightly cooler.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

With the hot and humid conditions, showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each afternoon from Tuesday onward. We are not
too far from the edge of the ridge where shortwaves propagating
around the top of the ridge could trigger storms. Tuesday will
be a day to watch as there is an Elevated Mixed Layer moving in,
with 500-700 mb lapse rates near 8C/km. Shear does not look to
be too impressive, between 20-25 knots, but still hail and
downburst are a possibility with any deep convection that takes
advantage of the lapse rates. Headed into the rest of the week,
MLCAPE tops out around 1500 to 2000 J/kg with not much CIN so a
few isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely. Shear
remains low through this period but of course, microburst will
still be possible but widepsread severe storms is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the 18z TAF
period. Isolated light rain showers will be possible through the
evening hours at KAVP, but these will likely not result in
restrictions. After 06Z tonight, there`s potential for
widespread fog across the area, which will result in at least
MVFR visby restrictions and likely also IFR visby restrictions
at the Central NY terminals.

Outlook:

Sunday through Monday...VFR likely during the day, valley fog
possible each morning.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mostly VFR, but some restrictions
will be possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Current High Temperature Records:

6/30: BGM - 92 (1964), SYR - 94 (1971), AVP - 97 (1964)
7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018)
7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...KL
CLIMATE...BTL