Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

247
FXUS61 KBGM 280600
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecasted rainfall totals were increased. The Flash Flood
Watch was expanded to include the Wyoming Valley plus Wayne and
Delaware Counties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A low pressure system will bring multiple rounds of showers and
storms today through Wednesday. Locally heavy rain is possible.

2) Scattered showers will be possible Thursday through the end of
the week as this system slowly exits the region. The weekend will
start out dry though rain may return by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level trough will dig over the Northeast this morning. This
trough will become cutoff late today with a stacked low developing
over the region. A strong LLJ will develop south of the low and
swing over to the east side of it. Once on the eastern side, it will
enhance moisture advection as moisture gets pulled from the Atlantic.
With the LLJ over the Poconos and Catskills for a period of time
combined with terrain effects, enhanced rainfall amounts are
expected over those regions, but other areas like the Wyoming
Valley may see higher rainfall amounts as well with this strong
flow over that region early today.

This system will be slow to move eastward while it remains present
near the area heading into the overnight hours. A dry slot will
likely push in and bring a period of rain-free conditions for
many. However, moisture will wrap around the low and additional
showers will develop west of the dry slot, leading to showers
continuing throughout Wednesday. Model guidance have a secondary
low developing closer to the coast. This low will also be slow
moving, so scattered showers are expected to linger through
Thursday.

Forecasted rainfall totals will range from 1 to 3 inches across the
region. As mentioned, the strong LLJ and terrain effect will likely
lead to an area of higher rainfall amounts, where locally totals
will push into the 3 to 5 inch range in the Catskills and Poconos.
Some of the 00z guidance is concerning given that localized amounts
of 6+ inches are shown, and not just in the regions highlighted in
the previous statement. Guidance have also been fairly consistent
with enhanced totals in the Finger Lakes region after the wraparound
showers on Wednesday. In addition, some instability within the warm
sector will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Storms will
also have the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall at times.
Shear will be slightly more favorable for isolated stronger storms
in the Wyoming Valley today. Despite this system being on our
doorstep, there is uncertainty on exactly where the heaviest rain
will fall as that will depend on where this system sets up.

With all of the uncertainty in mind, one could make the argument to
expanded the watch to all counties in the region, though not all
would see hydro issues. To stay in collaboration with neighbors and
cover most counties covered by the WPC`s Slight Risk, the Flood
Watch now covers most of Northeast PA and parts of Central NY
along and east of I-81. The watch could be expanded more if
confidence increases on where heavier rain will fall.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

This system will drift up the coast into New England by Thursday,
through wraparound moisture on the back side of the system will
continue to support light showers over the region. These showers
will continue through Friday, though a ridge will begin to push in
from the west with drier air. Shower activity should come to an end
Friday night with a dry start to the weekend expected.

Over the weekend, a trough takes shape over the Northeast once again
as a low pressure system develops in the Southwest. The flow around
this low will tap into the Gulf and Atlantic, potentially advecting
moisture northward into the region. There is uncertainty though if
surface high pressure keeps conditions dry through Sunday or if
showers develop with the trough digging in. Chances for showers may
be better early next week as a cold front drops in from the
north.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another cluster of showers and thunderstorms will move eastward
toward KELM and KITH with potential arrival time around 07Z.
Projected extent into KBGM and KAVP around 09-10Z but timing is
more uncertain for those locations. Potential break for a few
hours before additional showers with restrictions move into the
region. Thunderstorms are possible as well with the highest
potential for KBGM and KAVP around the early afternoon hours.
Ceilings should lower after sunset as well with fuel-alternate
values currently expected tonight.

Outlook:

Tuesday night through Thursday... Showers and isolated
thunderstorms with restrictions through Wednesday then scattered
showers Thursday with possible restrictions.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR; low chance of a shower or
thunderstorm.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through Wednesday
     evening for PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through Wednesday
     evening for NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL/JTC
AVIATION...MWG