Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

694
FXUS61 KBGM 120712
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
212 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures were increased the next couple of nights and decreased
on Friday. Minor adjustments were made to snowfall totals.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain continues today as a low pressure system approaches the
region. Colder air from the north will allow rain to transition to
snow late today into Friday.

2) Lake effect precipitation is expected for portions of the region
through the weekend.

3) Temperatures will then trend warmer next week as an upper level
ridge builds in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Light rain showers have developed over parts of the region early
this morning. These showers are driven by low pressure system that
will continue to slide east today leading to rain becoming more
widespread later by midday. With the center of the low sliding just
to the south, colder air will fill in from north allowing rain to
become a rain/snow mix and eventually just snow overnight. Timing of
the precipitation type transition will depend on how quickly the
colder air moves in. Rain will change over to snow in the higher
elevations first but most valleys should see snow by Friday morning.
With surface temperatures stuck in the 30s, snow continues through
much of the daytime Friday thanks to wraparound moisture on the back
side of the low. As the low drifts out to sea later on Friday,
coverage will become more scattered on the back side of the system.
Meanwhile, low-level flow will continue to advect colder air over
the Great Lakes, leading to lake effect snow precipitation
developing.

Snowfall totals did not change much from the previous forecast.
Higher elevations of the Catskills still could see the highest
totals with localized amounts of 2 to 3 inches. Other higher
elevations across the region could see an inch or more. A coating of
snow is possible elsewhere as snow sticks to colder surfaces but is
not expected to accumulate much on the warmer ground. If rain
transitions to snow quicker than expected, then final snowfall
amounts could end up higher. These forecasted totals are still short
of advisory level and confidence is too low for any headline
issuance at this time.

Temperatures through the end of the work week will be colder than
past days. Highs today will be in the 40s and 50s before falling to
near and below freezing tonight. Temperatures will struggle to warm
up Friday, only maxing out in the 30s to low 40s. Then sub-freezing
temperatures are expected Friday night and this could lead to light
icing on untreated, wet surfaces. NBM guidance seemed too cold at
night with cloud cover and precipitation present. Then for the same
reasons, the NBM was too warm compared to most other guidance for
Friday. A blend of Consall and NBM was used to make adjustments to
the temperature forecast during these times.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Flow will become northwesterly and 850mb temperatures fall colder on
Saturday, leading to lake effect precipitation lingering through at
least Sunday and potentially into Monday as well. Along the northern
areas of the Finger Lakes, precipitation will be primarily rain or
rain/snow mix due to warmer conditions. Elsewhere, precipitation
will be mainly snow, at least on Saturday. As temperatures trend
warmer Sunday into Monday, snow will transition back to rain during
the day. The CMC keeps the lake effect showers going through Monday
though drier air begins to move in as an upper level ridge
approaches the region. Additional snowfall accumulations are
expected through at least Saturday night, though any transition back
to rain will likely melt most of what does accumulation. Another 1
to 2 inches will be possible in higher elevations whereas less than
an inch is expected elsewhere.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

After this brief sample of winter, weather conditions improve during
the midweek period. The aforementioned ridge builds into the region
Tuesday with high pressure present through at least Thursday.
Temperatures will trend warm and back above average, at least for
daytime highs. The nights will remain cool with temperatures near or
below freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Conditions will be mainly VFR early this morning, but will
deteriorate by daybreak with rain showers and low ceilings
moving in. MVFR ceilings and visibilities and eventually IFR
conditions are expected throughout the day with the rain.
Isolated thunder cannot be ruled out this afternoon, but was
left out of the TAFs at this time due to low confidence in this
occurring. Wet snow could begin mixing in with the rain this
evening, with restrictions remaining right through the end of
the TAF period (at least through 06Z Friday).

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...A mix of rain/snow showers possible
and associated restrictions.

Sunday...Lingering rain and snow showers, mainly in the morning
with associated restrictions possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...BJG