Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

050
FXUS61 KBGM 021056
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
656 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The potential for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall
remains for today through tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Corridor of severe thunderstorm risk straddles the area through
early Thursday morning, with uncertainty on timing details, yet
presses southward with time into the day on Thursday.

2) A risk for locally heavy rainfall exists, with isolated flash
flood possible. Primary focus of concern is late today through
tonight for Central NY into the Twin Tiers.

3) A seasonably cooler and mainly dry pattern is anticipated
for the extended Labor Day Holiday Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A frontal zone over the region will become even more pronounced
today. Upper flow will steadily increase through the day, with
a couple waves passing through to interact with the temperature
gradient zone. Precipitable water values, after stepping back a
bit overnight, will ramp back up a bit with a lead shortwave in
the morning and then top off approaching 2.50 inches with a
stronger wave by this evening. Undercutting these waves aloft,
will be the light southeast flow encroaching at the surface,
advancing around high pressure over New England to push in some
marine layer. So there will indeed be a gradient of conditions
for the area, with highs ranging form only upper 60s-lower 70s
Poconos-Catskills to lower-mid 80s in Finger Lakes.

With the lead shortwave, there is considerable uncertainty for
whether it will generate and sustain a line of convection/for how
long. Some convection allowing models (CAMS) allow it to bring a
decaying line of convection into the region during the morning. It
will be driven by aloft-processes instead of being surface-based, so
the severe risk may be limited. However, on the mesoscale we will
have to see if it generates renewed convection with boundaries on
the way out, which could lead to isolated strong to severe.

Wednesday afternoon, convective available potential energy (CAPE)
climbs in a warm and very humid environment. As with yesterday,
there may be a lack of triggers between waves. However, this time a
stronger wave in projected to enter the area late afternoon through
evening which will harness whatever CAPE builds up before then.
Convective parameters especially more comfortably on the warm side
of the frontal zone appear quite concerning late Wednesday. Surface-
rooted storms that fire with the wave will then ride up the shallow
warm front, with time becoming more elevated. However, shallow warm
fronts can be quite problematic with the shear that they generate in
the low levels. There will be an overlapping zone of elevated
helicity, which is why isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out in
addition the downburst potential from storm cores. Mitigating
factors are limited midlevel temperature lapse rates as thermal
profiles approach moist-adiabatic, and the trend towards a later
arrival of the wave which is less able to harness diurnal heating.
Latest guidance continues a sharp CAPE gradient along the I81
corridor in NY and Northern PA. This gradient may once again be
the focus of the edge of strong/severe storms such as was the
case Tuesday evening.

Though the parade-route of passing shortwaves gradually presses
south into Thursday, it is still close enough to pose a threat for
stronger thunderstorms at least in Northeast PA, and elevated
showers-embedded thunder farther north across the rest of the
region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

With a stalled front and high precipitable water values
through Thursday morning of 2+ inches, potential for locally
heavy rain and at least isolated flash flooding is a concern.
Though there will be a gradient of severe weather parameters
that lessens east of I-81, the parameters for excessive rainfall
will exist well north and east of the frontal zone in addition
to along it. Warm cloud depths will be quite high, above 12kft
agl, and a very moist low level jet will keep feeding in
moisture. The High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) model
suite probability matched mean continues to depict stripes of
2-3 inches. Even though exact locations could change, there in
increasing confidence in the scenario leading to excessive
rainfall amounts somewhere within our general area. Conjunction
of parameters puts more of the focus on Central NY to Northern
Tier of PA versus points farther south. Timing of waves, and
frontal zone location at those times, will be key for who ends
up with flash flooding, with potential for isolated amounts
above 3 inches.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

After the busier pattern through Thursday, the extended Labor
Day Weekend actually looks pretty benign. Friday into early
next week, the large ridge in the central US retrogrades west
with the trough in the northeast nudging into the mid Atlantic.
This will help the flow become more northerly with seasonably
cooler and drier air advecting in. Depending on how cool the
850mb temperatures are, there could be some lake effect rain
showers to deal with at times but for the most part the weekend
into early next week is looking mostly dry. We will be back to
fresh nights with lows of upper 40s-mid 50s, and highs of
mainly 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Complicated and active weather day expected across the area. A
mix of low stratus LIFR to VFR conditions across our terminals
should see improvement as the morning progresses. A complex of
thunderstorms currently moving through Ontario may hold together
across the lake and impact ITH/SYR/RME by mid morning.
Confidence in this holding together is moderate as storm
parameters over our area are strong enough to keep some elevated
convection going.

Another round of rain and thunderstorms is expected to develop
later this afternoon into the overnight hours. Guidance has
shown some large variance in solutions with the event only 12
hours away so confidence in location and timing is somewhat low.
Severe parameters are strong and show the potential for severe
storm development late this afternoon into the evening,
followed by rain showers with some embedded thunder. Some of the
more consistent guidance was used to time out the
thunderstorms, but this could change as initial conditions of
our high res models are not handling the current rain and storms
well. Hopefully we will have a better handle on it by the next
TAF set. IFR restrictions will be possible with the
thunderstorms, especially the round late this afternoon and
evening. IFR restrictions may fill with the rain behind the
storms, but guidance is too uncertain to have high confidence in
these restrictions.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday... Restrictions with
widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night. Then
additional thunderstorms close to KAVP,KELM and KBGM Thursday
afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...Low operational impact. Chance of early AM
fog each day. Chance of showers Saturday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDP/SJW
AVIATION...JTC