Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

950
FXUS61 KBGM 012348
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
748 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
QPF was increased for this evening and tonight, especially across
the Twin Tiers. Temperatures were also lowered below guidance for
Thursday and Thursday night. The Flood Watch was extended for most
of Central NY but was cancelled for those in the northern ares of
the Finger Lakes Region and east into the Mohawk Valley.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There will be another round of rain this evening and tonight that
could lead to minor hydro issues for areas that recently saw heavy
rain.

2) Temperatures trend warmer through the start of the weekend before
a cold front moves through Sunday with below normal temperatures to
follow. Rain chances remain in the forecast through the weekend
before cooler conditions could support light snow early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a quieter start to the day, rain showers will slowly move in
this afternoon along the front that is strung across the Northeast.
Rain will become more widespread this evening and then again tonight
as a warm front will slowly lift through the region. Models are
showing 850mb FGEN banding across the Twin Tiers and into the
Catskills. This could enhance rainfall over some of the areas
recently hit by heavy rain and flash flooding. While expected QPF
amounts will be 0.5 to 0.75" over a 12 to 18 hour period, more
sensitive areas could still see some minor issues overnight into
tomorrow before rain comes to an end. Because of this, the Flood
Watch was extended until 8am Thursday for the Southern Tier and the
next tier of counties north. For the northern portions of the Finger
Lakes Region and the Wyoming Valley, the watch was cancelled early.

Rain showers will become more scattered by Thursday morning and are
expected to remain scattered for most of the daytime hours. By
Thursday evening, showers become more isolated. Then overnight,
mostly dry conditions are expected, though isolated showers and
possibly thunderstorms will remain possible.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 30s and 40s. With mostly
cloudy skies and cold air damming to the east, temperatures will
only climb into the 40s and 50s Thursday before falling slightly
overnight.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Strong southwesterly flow on Friday will kick off a warming trend
that will continue into the weekend. We will get a taste of early
summer as temperatures surge into the upper 60s and 70s both Friday
and Saturday. Unfortunately with disturbances still lingering in the
region, there will be chances for off-and-on showers throughout this
time as well. There will be enough instability and shear to support
isolated afternoon thunderstorms, though severe storms are not
expected at this time.

The warmer conditions will be short-lived as a strong cold front
will sweep through the region early on Sunday. This will be the next
best chance for widespread rain showers. While there will have been
a couple of days to dry out, hydro issues may become a concern once
again as PWATs will be elevated for this time of year with models
showing at least 3 standard deviations above normal. What may help
is the relatively quick timing of this front, but this system will
be worth monitoring. Colder air is then quick to fill in behind
the departing front as freezing to sub-freezing temperatures
are forecasted for Sunday night. Wrap-around moisture and
northwesterly flow will support light lake effect snow showers
as well.

Lake effect snow will likely linger into Monday. Then a passing
system will kick off light rain and snow showers on Tuesday.
The battle between winter and spring continues as temperatures
fall below normal early next week with sub-freezing conditions
possible during the overnight periods.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Variable conditions around the area early this evening. However,
rain will continue to overspread much of the area through the
late evening and overnight hours, lowering CIGs to widespread
IFR at most TAF sites. RME and SYR will be on the edge of the
steadier rain, so may fluctuate between IFR/MVFR through most
of the TAF period. Highest confidence is persistent IFR to LIFR
conditions overnight into Thursday morning will be at ITH, BGM
and ELM...with AVP also potentially seeing IFR conditions
heading into Thursday morning and early afternoon. Overall,
expect dreary, rainy conditions with some patchy fog around at
times. Latest model guidance does not show much if any
improvement heading into Thursday afternoon, and keeps most of
the area IFR right through the end of the TAF period (again,
except borderline low end MVFR at SYR and RME).

Light and variable winds under 10 kts expected tonight into
Thursday morning. Winds then turn southeast at 8-15 kts Thursday
afternoon and early evening.

Outlook:

Thursday Night: Lingering IFR or lower CIGs likely for at least
a portion of the area. Isolated pockets of fog also possible.

Friday through Saturday...Isolated to scattered rain
showers and a low chance for afternoon thunderstorms; associated
occasional restrictions possible.

Sunday...A frontal system approaches the region with additional
showers and restrictions possible.

Monday...VFR conditions possible as high pressure builds.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NYZ022>025-044>046-
     055>057.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...ES/MJM