Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

261
FXUS61 KBGM 051954
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
254 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain tonight was
expanded to also include Pike and Wayne counties in Northeast
PA. Also adjusted the start and end times of the previously
issued Winter Weather Advisory (now in effect 7PM this evening
to 10AM Friday).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain is expected through tonight into Friday
morning. Rain is expected to transition to freezing rain tonight
for parts of the Poconos, Catskills, and Mohawk Valley.

2) A cold front will bring another round of rain showers on
Saturday, especially late in the day and in the evening. A few
thunderstorms may also develop and result in gusty winds, mainly
west of I-81.

3) Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend through
much of next week. This warm weather, combined with multiple
rounds of rainfall will bring an increasing risk for some
flooding, perhaps including isolated ice jams.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Occasional rounds of rainfall will continue to impact the area
through tonight and into Friday morning, as a stationary frontal
of boundary continues to be situated across the Mid-Atlantic
region. Afternoon temperatures have been above freezing area-
wide (mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s), so the form of
precipitation has been just rain so far.

However as temperatures fall below freezing tonight, the threat
for freezing rain returns across the eastern portion of the
region, especially the Catskills, Poconos and Mohawk Valley. In
addition to the existing Winter Weather Advisories that were in
effect for the Oneida, Otsego, Delaware, and Sullivan counties
in NY, a Winter Weather Advisory has now also been issued for
Wayne and Pike counties in PA. Most locations will likely
receive less than one tenth of an inch of ice accumulation, but
some of the highest peaks of the Catskills could receive closer
to one quarter of an inch of ice. Across some of the lower
elevations, temperatures will be extremely marginal, so even if
some freezing rain were to occur, it likely would only
accumulate on elevated surfaces.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following the passage of a warm front Saturday morning, our
region will be in the warm sector with temperatures rising to
the mid 50s to mid 60s for most areas. After a morning batch of
showers, some partial sunshine may break out as well. Then by
the evening, a cold front will move through the area, which will
bring another round of rain showers. While instability will be
low, 50-60kts of 0-6km bulk shear will likely be present and as
a result, some of these showers and isolated thunderstorms may
result in locally damaging winds, mainly west of I-81. The
greater risk of severe thunderstorms would likely be west of
our region across western PA and western NY, but there is a
small potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday
evening. As a result, SPC has parts of our region west of I-81
highlighted in a "Marginal Risk" for severe thunderstorms in
their Day 3 Convective Outlook.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Multiple rounds of rain combined with warmer temperatures will cause
rivers and streams to continue to rise this weekend into early
next week. As mentioned in Key Message 2, temperatures Saturday
are expected to be well above average with highs in the mid 50s
to mid 60s. PWATs will also be around or slightly above one
inch, which is anomalously high for this time of year. This may
lead to locally heavy downpours and continued rises on rivers
and streams. River ensemble forecasts show several forecast
points potentially reaching action stage with the possibility of
minor flooding at a few locations. Despite the cold frontal
passage, temperatures Sunday will remain above normal with highs
mainly in the 50s. Southwest flow returns early next week
allowing temperatures to remain in the 50s and 60s and possibly
even warmer by midweek. Rivers and streams will need close
monitoring during this timeframe for potential flooding,
including possible isolated ice jams.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A system will push across the region this afternoon into tonight.
Showers impact the area this afternoon, then steady moderate rain
overspreads the region this evening with widespread IFR/LIFR
restrictions expected. Widespread low ceilings and fog should
linger even after the steady rain ends (07-10z) lasting through
at least the late morning hours Friday. CIGs and visibilities
begin to slowly lift and gradually improve toward the end of
this taf period; but CIGs still remain borderline IFR/MVFR Fuel
Alt...while visibilities come up to 6-10 SM as the mist
dissipates.

SYR and RME do not see rain until the late afternoon hours and
IFR visibility and ceilings are expected by late afternoon or
early this evening here. RME could also see temperatures dip
below freezing late tonight and a period of freezing rain will
be possible (but this is a low chance at this time, so freezing
rain or sleet was not included in the RME TAF).

Outlook:

Friday Afternoon - Saturday...IFR or lower CIGs linger much of
the time; some improvement west to MVFR Saturday afternoon,
before CIGs could drop lower again Saturday night. Showers and
possibly a thunderstorm as a front moves through Saturday
evening into tonight.


Sunday...MVFR CIGs possible in the morning, then becoming VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Friday for PAZ040-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ009-037-046-057-062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...MJM