Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

308
FXUS61 KBGM 201058
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
658 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes were made due to a further south shift in storm
track. QPF totals have been lowered with the heaviest rainfall
now expected to remain south of the region, however rain will
still be moderate to heavy at times across northeast PA today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A low pressure system will bring a period of steady rain and
showers to the area today. Rainfall amounts between a half inch
to one inch are expected.

2) The weather pattern is trending drier, with cooler, fall
temperatures for much of next week. A stalled front and later a
stronger low off the East Coast could keep shower chances nearby.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Low pressure is now forecast to track a little further south
across southern PA today, so this will keep the bulk of the
heavier rainfall outside our CWA. Still on track to see a half
inch to an inch of rain across the Poconos and into the Southern
Catskills, but much less than what previous forecasts were
advertising. With the lower rainfall totals, WPC has removed any
mention of excessive rainfall.

Rainfall will come to an this evening behind the departing low.
A very dry air mass will advect into the area from Canada late
tonight into Monday. While there could be some patchy fog, it
will most likely dissipate as drier air mixes down toward the
surface. Overnight lows will be quite cool, dropping into the
40s to low 50s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Dry high pressure is expected to remain overhead on Monday.
There is another weak shortwave that could bring a round of rain
showers on Tuesday, but with the stalled front likely ending up
further south than previous forecast, the best chances for rain
showers will be in NEPA. The remains quite a bit of uncertainty
in the model guidance, with the GFS lifting the stalled boundary
further north with higher rain chances and the NAM keeping it
south of the area and the Euro brings scattered showers north
to the NY/PA border area Tuesday morning, but keeps it dry
further north. Considering the high amount of spread and
uncertainty in the guidance, the official forecast used the
blended ensemble guidance, which brings a few showers southern
and western portions of the area... and allows temperatures to
reach the upper 50s to mid-60s for highs.

For the remainder of the week, high pressure looks like it will
become established for our area. This will keep it mostly dry,
under northeasterly flow. Wednesday and Thursday look partly
sunny and a bit cool with highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s each night.

By Friday, the 12Z models are keep the track of a coastal low
further out into the Atlantic. As the low becomes vertically
stacked it may stall and meander around and possibly bring
rounds of showers into southern New England, but mostly spare
our region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure pushes through the region today with widespread
rain and associated restrictions. IFR to VLIFR conditions are
forecast at most sites through this morning into this afternoon
due to ceilings. Rain comes to an end early this afternoon with
some improvement possible to ceilings, but fog and low stratus
may settle back in overnight with VLIFR conditions at ELM and
BGM. Elsewhere, conditions should improve to MVFR this evening
and likely VFR at RME and SYR. Forecast confidence is high for
restrictions into this afternoon, but low for tonight into
Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR expected

Monday Night and Tuesday...Possible restrictions with showers,
especially NE PA and perhaps the NY Southern Tier terminals.

Wednesday and Thursday...Likely VFR most of the time.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...MPK