Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

816
FXUS61 KBGM 022255
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
555 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Pleasant conditions continue through midweek, though passing
showers are expect Tuesday for portions of Central NY.

2) A frontal system will bring rain to the region Thursday.
Additional disturbances will keep rain around through the start of
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure will help keep pleasant conditions around
through mid-week. The exception will be on Tuesday as was warm front
lifts north of the region. The short-range guidance such as the
NAMNest and other HREF members continue to show scattered showers
from early Tuesday morning through the afternoon hours. The longer-
range models either keep the region dry or have showers across the
far northern areas. With this much uncertainty, PoPs were increased
from the NBM solution with help from Conshort and manual
adjustments. As a result, there are slight chance PoPs across
Central NY, mainly north of the Southern Tier. Model soundings show
a pocket of dry air near the surface, so precipitation is expected
to be light.

Otherwise, an upper ridge builds into the region. Southwesterly flow
will advect in warmer air, allowing temperatures to trend warmer
through Wednesday. Under sunny skies, 70s return for daytime highs
for the majority of the region on Wednesday. Nightly temperatures
will be mild as well with lows in the 40s and 50s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The latter half of the week will become more active as multiple
disturbances bring rain to the region. A low pressure system over
the Midwest will propagate into the Great Lakes region. As it does,
this will push a front through with rain moving in early Thursday
morning. Unlike previous model runs, the front moves through quickly
as the coastal low that was once present now develops further out at
sea. With this system, PWATs will be 1.2 to 1.5 inches, which is 2-3
standard deviations above normal for this time of year. Instability
will be limited but with higher shear present, a few thunderstorms
may be possible. Despite this, hydro concerns are minimal as this
front is quick to move through following an extended dry period. If
there were to be any ponding, it will likely be due to leaf litter
clogging up drains.

A slot of dry air fills in behind the front. However, an upper level
trough is trailing this system and will support additional showers
Friday and Saturday as wraparound moisture nudges in from the north.
While there is some uncertainty on how long the showers will last,
surface high pressure returns for the second half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24
hours. 15k-25k foot clouds tonight will lower to near 5k ft for
Tuesday morning/afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Saturday...Showers may bring occasional
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...KL