Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

369
FXUS61 KBGM 051149
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
649 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased snow chances over NEPA this morning as a warm front
moves through. Increased snow chances for tonight across the
Wyoming Valley and vicinity as NBM was not picking up on lake
effect chances behind departing clipper system. Freezing rain
coverage for Tues night backed off a little bit with the focus
now on Oneida county and the Catskills.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Clipper system brings light snow to the area Monday.

2) Lake cutter brings rain on Tuesday with a Wintry mix in the
evening and overnight. Freezing rain possible in spots Tuesday
night.

3) Very warm temperatures are expected to work their way into
the area Thursday thru Saturday. This will lead to rapid
snowmelt Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1....
A weak clipper system currently over the northern Great Lakes
will continue to track to SE, bringing light snow to the CWA
today. Model guidance has backed off a bit over the past few
runs with how much QPF will be available and thus how much snow
will fall. Current thinking is areas north of the Southern Tier
will see 1-3 inches, with the higher amounts focused north of
the Wyoming Valley where some orographic lift from the Tug Hill
will help eek out a little more snowfall. Snowfall chances were
extended into NEPA and the Poconos during the morning hours as
some models had some light snow developing ahead of a warm front
moving into the area that was not picked up by the NBM. A
dusting to a half inch will be possible across NEPA and the
Southern Tier.

The clipper should clear the area by the evening, but light lake
effect snow is expected to develop on the back side of the
departing system across Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties.
Snowfall will be light as a subsidence inversion builds in and
takes most of the moisture out of the DGZ. A few tenths of
additional snowfall will be possible up until midnight. Snow
should dissipate by then as high pressure builds in.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A lake cutter developing in the central Great Plains Monday
night will track eastward, impacting the CWA on Tuesday. This
cutter will help usher in the start of a drastic warm up that
will go through the end of the week. For Tuesday, WAA will push
temps into the mid 30s by Wed morning ahead of the approaching
precipitation shield. Weak cold air damming combined with the
snowpack keeping surface temps cold will allow for a wintry mix
to occur across Oneida county and the Catskills. Snow changing
to a rain snow mix by mid afternoon will be followed by freezing
rain chances in the late afternoon and evening hours. This will
be highly dependent on where the cold air can pool and allow
the freezing temps to remain. Current thinking is eastern
portions of northern Oneida and the Catskills will have surface
temps cold enough as the warm nose between 925mb and 850mb
builds into the area. A trace to 0.1in of freezing rain will be
possible. Guidance remains somewhat uncertain of how much
freezing rain will occur as it struggles with how much cold air
will remain at the surface. We will continue to monitor these
trends.

A cold front will push through from the west during the
overnight hours. Any lingering precip should change over to an
elevation based rain/snow mix that should exit the area by Wed
afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

A gradual warm up will occur on Wednesday and Thursday as temps
climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Thursday night into Friday
is where we start to see a big warm up. A deep trough will dig
into the mountain west Thurs night and eject into the Plains on
Friday. A surface low  This will bring an overall SW flow
across the eastern US which will push warm air from the gulf up
into our area. Temps Friday are currently expected to climb into
the upper 40s to low 50s. A surface low developing over the
central Plains will track to the NE, helping to enhance WAA over
the area on Saturday and push temps into the low to mid 50s.
Rain is expected to move over the area Friday and Saturday as a
couple of surface lows will pass to the west of the CWA.
Guidance solutions are similar for the first low and rain
chances on Friday but diverge with how to handle the development
of another low on Saturday and associated precipitation
location and timing.

With this big warm up, rapid snow melt is expected to occur with
the possibility of the snowpack across areas outside of those
hit hard by lake effect snow this past week to completely melt.
This melting combined with rainfall could cause rivers to rise
to a level that would break up any ice that has formed, leading
to the possibility of some ice jams. We should get some good
river ice observations and snowpack water equivalency readings
this week which will help gauge ice jam potential for this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A smattering of MVFR and VFR ceilings across the area this
morning. Snow showers are expected to move in from the west by
mid morning with more persistent and heavier showers expected
for SYR and RME. Tempo IFR visby should occur for a few hours
during the late morning/early afternoon as some heavier showers
move through the area. After these heavier showers, model
soundings show some drying in the DGZ, which would lead to very
small flakes or even patchy freezing drizzle during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Confidence is not high enough to
include freezing drizzle in the TAF but wanted to mention the
possibility of it. MVFR/Fuel Alt conditions should remain at
these terminals through the overnight hours.

ITH/ELM/BGM/AVP should see more showery activity today with
lighter snow showers as the heavier QPF is expected to be north
of these terminals. That is not to say that IFR restrictions
could briefly occur if a heavier shower moves overhead, but
confidence in this occurring is not high enough to include in
the TAF. MVFR ceilings are expected through the morning with
some snow showers that would drop visby down to MVFR as well.
Ceilings should lift to VFR in the afternoon before returning to
MVFR for the overnight hours.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...A chance of rain/snow showers and
possible restrictions.

Thursday...High pressure with VFR conditions.

Friday...Possible restrictions with rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...JTC