Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

844
FXUS61 KBGM 312313
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
713 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Considerably increased precipitation chances for this evening
and increased wind gusts for this afternoon and evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A weak disturbance will bring showers and possibly an
isolated thunderstorm across portions of central New York late
this afternoon through this evening.

2) An upper level blocking pattern will be in control for at
least the first half of the week. Conditions will be mild and
mostly dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A fairly potent short wave will be dropping south into northern
NY this afternoon and evening. This feature is already kicking
off showers and some thunderstorms across southern Quebec early
this afternoon. Forecast soundings are showing some weak
instability and moisture has increased some with the 12Z model
guidance. Decided to increase PoPs from 30 to 40 percent to 50
to 60 percent with this latest update for the late afternoon
through evening timeframe. Shower activity will likely be a
little more widespread, especially across the Tug Hill and
Mohawk Valley and into eastern Otsego and Delaware Counties.
Still some uncertainty how far south and west showers will make
it this evening, but latest CAMs are trying to bring measurable
rain all the way into the Southern Tier. However, much drier air
is in place across the southern and western halves of our CWA,
so current thinking is very little rain will make it west of the
I81 corridor and most of the activity should stay northeast of
Binghamton. Finally, with some elevated instability, a mention
of isolated thunder was added in the forecast, mostly north of
the NYS Thruway Corridor in Oneida County. Forecast soundings
also show some potential for strong wind gusts in the 30 to 40
mph range with any heavier showers, due to inverted V with the
low level dry air place.

Key Message 2...

An upper level Omega block will be present over CONUS through at
least the first half of this week. An upper trough extends over
the Northeast, but with high pressure at the surface, conditions
will be mostly dry. Temperatures will be near or even slightly
below normal through the middle part of the week as daily highs
will be in the 60s and 70s and overnight lows will be in the 40s
and 50s. Diurnal showers will be possible as daytime heating
and weak forcing could trigger pop up showers Monday and
Tuesday afternoon. There may also be just enough instability
and shear to support isolated thunderstorms as well.

The pattern is expected to change during the second half of the
week, at least over the Northeast. While there will still be a low
over the west and a weakening ridge in the central US, the
trough/low over the east begins to fill as it drifts eastward
late in the week. This will lead to a more zonal pattern and
ridging starts shifting eastward. A warming trend is forecast into
the weekend, with highs in the 80s for most by Thursday. Mostly
dry conditions are expected through the end of the work week as
well. A frontal system will approach the region Friday with the
next round of showers. However, there remains quite a bit of
uncertainty as guidance differ on the timing and coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR throughout the TAF period. However, light showers moving
into KSYR and KRME will result in ceilings forming and lowering
a bit for the evening hours but restrictions are not expected.
Upstream obs and guidance have backed off this possibility
mentioned earlier today. Went with persistence at KELM for
overnight keeping the mention of brief MVFR fog before sunrise
which would burn off quickly around 12Z Monday. A stray shower
or two can`t be ruled out Monday but coverage is not enough for
TAF inclusion at this time.

Outlook:

Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR, but isolated showers
each afternoon may result in brief restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...BJG/MWG