Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

845
FXUS61 KBGM 092031
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
331 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Onondaga, Madison
and Oneida Counties for the combination of snow from a clipper
system and lake effect tomorrow through Wednesday along with the
potential for a glaze of ice.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near average high temperatures tomorrow, but a weak clipper
system brings a quick-hitting round of light snow and mixed
precipitation.

2) Lake Effect snow showers Tuesday night into Thursday.
Precipitation chances increasing later for the latter half of
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A period of warm advection snow associated with an approaching
clipper system is expected to move in from the west tomorrow
morning and spread across CNY and the Northern Tier of NE PA
through the early afternoon. Snow accumulations are expected to
be light, generally under a half an inch, but some upslope
enhancement can lead to an inch or two of snow across central
and northern Oneida County. A dry slot is expected to move in
around 17-19Z bringing a brief lull in precipitation, but as the
light snow tapers off and temperatures rise into the low and
mid 30s, the snow can come to an end as some light mixed
precipitation or patchy freezing drizzle. The cold front with
the clipper will move through during the late afternoon and
early evening bringing additional light mixed precipitation or
freezing rain/drizzle that can result in a glaze of ice. Even in
lower elevations that may reach 33F to 35F tomorrow, surface
temperatures will remain cold enough for precipitation to freeze
on contact.

Winds will shift back out of the northwest and cold air
advecting in will lead to lake effect snow showers developing
tomorrow night that will carry over through Wednesday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

West to northwest flow settles back into the region behind the
departing clipper system. This allows lake effect snow showers to
develop early Wednesday morning and continue through Thursday over
central NY. Behind the scenes another shot of cold air moves into
the region with 850 mb temperatures ranging as low as -13 to -14C by
Wednesday night. With lake Ontario temperatures now ranging 0C to 4C
and 850 mb temperatures -10C to -14C, cold air advection will
continue to produce lake effect snow showers. Model soundings show
favorable lift Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon with
snow ratios around 17-20:1. This will allow a general 2 to 6 inches
to accumulate over north central NY with locally higher amounts
possible. An advisory was issued for lake effect snow for
Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties.

Advisory is in effect late tomorrow morning for a quick moving
clipper system, but the lake effect portion is not expected to
start until Tuesday night. Lake effect snow is what will lead to
the bulk of the snow accumulation and the main reason for the
winter weather advisory. There is potential to expand this
advisory further south into our region within the next couple of
updates. Additionally there is potential for some gusty winds
as well mainly early Wednesday morning through Thursday.

Flow shifts to the north briefly by Friday morning cutting off
lake access. Flow shifts northwest again by afternoon with
another low pressure system passing north of the region. This
could bring another shot of moisture with additional snow
showers possible on Saturday. Otherwise ensemble guidance is
hinting at another more organized system tracking toward the
region Sunday into Monday. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty in the track of this disturbance. GFS and Canadian
solutions have the low tracking south of our region, while the
ECMWF takes a more coastal and possibly impactful track. Given
its still 6-7 days out, it is too early to key in on one
solution at this time. Despite knowing the exact track, we are
still expecting precipitation to increase over our region at the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR with light winds persist today through most of tomorrow.
Snow showers are expected to move in towards the end of the
period, but this will bring impacts mainly after 18Z tomorrow.
More information to come in the next set of TAFs.

Outlook...

Tuesday... IFR/LIFR restrictions from snow likely Tuesday at
KSYR and KRME. Spotty light precipitation further south with
restrictions possible.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Some additional IFR/MVFR
restrictions possible from snow showers in CNY.

Friday and Saturday... High pressure returns with VFR conditions
expected at this time.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ009-018-036-037.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DK/ES
AVIATION...ES