Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

143
FXUS61 KBGM 171349
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
949 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
An Air Quality Alert has been issued for all of Central NY for
the rest of today until midnight tonight.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near-surface smoke remains present today, but it will shift
to the southwest and thin out. However, the smoke is expected to
lift northeastward back across the entire area later tonight.

2) A low pressure system will bring thunderstorms to the region
Saturday. Some storms may become severe primarily west of I-81.
Locally heavy rain will also be possible.

3) Temperatures will be near average throughout next week with
showers and storms returning around midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Steering winds aloft will trend slightly more to the north late
tonight and Friday with the smoke plume expected to shift south
across most of the area. The latest HRRR and RAP models clearly show
these smoke trends which should allow for a brief respite from the
pollution especially across Central NY and the Western Catskills.
The western and central Southern Tier, and parts of NEPA may stay
just within the slightly thicker edge of the smoke. Smoke is then
expected to lift back into the all areas on Saturday ahead of a low
pressure system.

An Air Quality Alert will remain in effect for NEPA until midnight
Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An upper-level wave will move through the Great Lakes region and
intensify an area of low pressure on Saturday. A warm front will
lift north in the morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The area should then destabilize into the afternoon with CAPE values
nearing 1500 J/kg and deep layer bulk shear values around 40 kts. A
surface cold front will act as a trigger for an additional round of
thunderstorms during the afternoon which may become organized
within this environment. Weaker mid-level lapse rates will be a
limiting factor for widespread severe activity. The latest SPC
Outlook continues the Marginal Risk for a large portion of the
area, but a Slight Risk has been introduced for the central
Southern Tier, Western Finger Lakes and portions of NE PA where
the maximum instability will coincide with best shear.

The environment will also be excessively moist with this system
as PWATs will be as high as 2 inches which is slightly above
normal deep moisture levels for this time of year. Antecedent
conditions indicate mainly dry soils and smaller stream channels
with low flows on most other watercourses. WPC has painted the
region within a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook which is a
good indicator of the main flood risk focusing on urban drainage
areas and small town storm drain networks. Much of the rural
area is drier than normal and will take a significant amount of
concentrated and prolonged rain rates for channelized flash
flooding.

All of this expected weather activity should disrupt and move the
smoke out of the region for Sunday. High pressure then builds into
the area through Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures throughout next week will generally be near or even
slightly below normal. Unsettled weather returns Tuesday with the
passage of another combination frontal system sweeping across the
region. Significant deep moisture returns ahead of this system with
the potential for locally heavy rain again as showers and storms
develop. A broad trough of low pressure sets up again across eastern
Canada with the upper flow becoming established out of the northwest
which may result in the wildfire smoke returning to the area toward
the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A current mix of IFR, MVFR and VFR visby is expected to last
for a hour or two before a weak front will pushes through and
kicks most of the smoke out of CNY and NEPA. VFR conditions are
expected for the rest of the TAF period.

Outlook:

Friday night into early Saturday...Wildfire smoke may lift back
north into the area with associated visibility restrictions;
otherwise mainly VFR.

The rest of Saturday into Sunday morning...Scattered showers
and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms along with
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAB
AVIATION...JTC