Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

306
FXUS61 KBGM 141702
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
102 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coverage for fog was expanded for tonight. Otherwise, there were
no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure pressure remains in place through the start of the
weekend.

2) A low pressure system will move through Sunday and Sunday night.
There will be potential for heavy rainfall.

3) High pressure returns midweek with a stretch of quieter weather,
though the next system will move through late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level disturbance will move through this afternoon and kick
off isolated showers. Instability is expected to be limited with
MLCAPE values less than 500 J/kg though 0-6 km bulk shear will be 50
to 60 kts, so a few thunderstorms will also be possible. We may have
to monitor how the environment evolves this afternoon because if
instability increases higher than modeled, then there would be
potential for strong, pulse-like convection. The best chances will
be east of I-81 in central NY.

Surface high pressure builds into the region later today. This high
will remain in place through Saturday, extending the period of dry
and pleasant conditions for most. Tonight, skies will become partly
to mostly clear and winds will be calm so fog is expected to develop.
Temperatures will fall into the 40s and 50s overnight before
bouncing back into the 70s and 80s on Saturday. Saturday night will
have similar conditions as tonight, though may be a touch warmer for
some as cloud cover increases ahead of the next system. There is a
low chance for showers over far western portions of the region,
though most guidance holds off until Sunday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The ridge of high pressure will break down on Sunday. A surface low
will deepen slightly as it moves across the lower Great Lakes
region. Some showers ahead of this system will be possible by Sunday
afternoon, though the bulk of the precipitation will be later in the
day through Sunday night. PWATs will increase to 1.75 to 2 inches,
and there will warm cloud depths of at least 10,000 feet. These
conditions will favor heavy rainfall. The one plus will be this
system is expected to move along fairly quickly and the potential
for training showers is low. Despite this, models are showing
localized precipitation accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with most
guidance favoring the bulk of rain over northeast PA. This lines up
well with WPC`s thinking and the ERO Slight Risk clipping the
Wyoming Valley. There does remain uncertainty on where the heaviest
rainfall will indeed fall and how much there will be. This drier
stretch has allowed soil conditions to dry out some, so urban and
poor drainage areas are where localized hydro issues will be most
likely. Models have backed off on on instability over the region, so
stronger storms are not expected. NBM guidance maintains low chances
for thunder, which if showers move in later, that would allow for
some instability to develop. Lingering moisture behind the system
will support additional rain showers on Monday. PWATs will
significantly decrease by then, so these showers will be light.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

High pressure builds into the region on Tuesday, though some models
keep the lingering showers around into the morning. Otherwise,
conditions will be dry through a period of time with a slight
warming trend. The next system with widespread rain chances will
then move in by Thursday, though uncertainties remain. Guidance like
the GFS have an open wave moving through while the ECMWF has a
closed low. There are timing differences as well with the GFS being
much quicker than most other guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. We maintained the PROB30
group at KRME for a few passing showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Patchy fog possible overnight again with the highest
potential at KELM, where a TEMPO group for IFR conditions
expected.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Areas of low clouds or fog and
associated restrictions possible early morning.

Sunday...Restrictions likely with showers. Some thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon/evening hours.

Monday...Chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms,
restrictions possible.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Some potential for early
morning fog and/or low cloud restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...KL