Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

767
FXUS61 KBGM 171808
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
208 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Similar to previous update, increases wind gusts across the
entire area tomorrow morning through the afternoon. As a result
Wind Advisories were issued for the Western Mohawk Valley and
Eastern Finger Lakes region.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An upper level trough will bring showers and storms this
afternoon, especially east of the I81 corridor.

2) Frontal system will push through the region tomorrow with more
chances for showers and thunderstorms along with increasing winds.
Greatest chance for widespread showers and storms will be during the
morning, with higher chances across north central NY during the
afternoon.

3) High pressure pushes in on Friday with cooler and drier
conditions through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Another weak shortwave will move into the region this afternoon,
bringing additional chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms.
While only limited instability is expected due to minimal sunshine,
forecast soundings still indicate 400-500 J/Kg of MLCAPE, which
should be sufficient for at least scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon into early evening, especially east of the I-81
corridor. Activity will quickly diminish around sunset as the
short wave exits to the east.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

A brief lull in precipitation is expected this evening between the
departing shortwave and an approaching warm front. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with the warm front will move into the
region late tonight. Additional showers associated with the cold
front will move through tomorrow morning and continue into the early
afternoon. Some of this activity may be tied to a remnant MCS
tracking east from Michigan this evening. However, the timing of
these showers and storms appears unfavorable for severe weather
tomorrow. Model soundings show modest CAPE values tomorrow afternoon
along with favorable wind shear values. This suggests that if
any strong to severe thunderstorms were to develop, strong to
damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. SPC continues to
keep most of the region in a Marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms, with the far eastern portion under a slight risk.

Despite thunderstorm development and severe potential, forecast
soundings still indicate strong winds mixing down to the
surface along with strengthening thickness gradient ahead of an
approaching cold front. These conditions will support gusty
winds Thursday morning through the afternoon. Wind gusts up to
50 mph will be possible, with locally higher gusts across areas
of complex terrain. Winds will be increasing early tomorrow morning
and persist through the afternoon. Wind Advisories were issued
for portions of the Western Mohawk Valley and Eastern Finger
Lakes regions. In summary, it will be a windy day, and only
modest convective mixing would be needed to produce higher
gusts.

As drier air filters into the region late tomorrow afternoon/early
evening, showers should gradually come to an end. High pressure
will build in tomorrow night into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Surface high pressure will build in behind the cold front for
Friday. This will bring drier and cooler conditions through the
weekend with low humidity. However, there will remain some
upper troughing over the region, so can`t rule out some diurnal
shower and thunderstorm activity around the peak heating hours
of the afternoon. The next chance for widespread rain will come
towards the beginning of next week, but any thunderstorm
potential with this next system is uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak wave passing through this afternoon may generate isolated
to widely scattered showers and perhaps thunder. Monitor
individual TAFs for amendments; confidence as of 18Z was only
high enough for KRME to include a thunder TEMPO Group. Fairly
quiet conditions late afternoon through evening, but an
approaching strong low pressure system will cause increasing
flow just off the surface for a period of Low Level Wind Shear
during the early morning, was well as some showers. Embedded
thunder cannot be ruled out through Thursday morning-midday, yet
confidence is very low. Either way, winds turn rather gusty out
of the southwest as a frontal system carries into the region.

Outlook:

Thursday afternoon through evening...Gusty southwest to west
winds as strong low pressure system finishes moving through.
Still a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the
afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR, though isolated to scattered
showers possible each afternoon with associated intermittent
restrictions. Westerly wind gusts could exceed 20 knots Friday-
Saturday afternoons.

Late Sunday night through Monday...Wave of low pressure with
rain, restrictions, and possible embedded thunder.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ009-
     015>018-036-037.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ES/MPK
AVIATION...MDP