Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

172
FXUS61 KBGM 070540
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
140 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Removed mention of thunderstorms this morning, as instability is
extremely limited to non-existant. Increased PoPs and QPF some along
the I-90 corridor during the early to mid morning hours today. It is
trending drier across most of the forecast area by this afternoon
and early evening. Added in fog to the forecast for tonight into
early Wednesday morning as temperatures cool into the 50s with light
winds and mainly clear skies. Made minor adjustments to PoPs Thursday
and used coverage terminology for the weather type, as forcing
is weak and showers/storms should be more of the pop up variety.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers rotate slowly over the area this morning, some
could be locally moderate to heavy at times. A few lingering showers
or an isolated thunderstorm will be around this afternoon.

2) Dry and warm weather returns for Wednesday under high pressure.

3) Chances for additional showers and thunderstorms slowly ramps up
on Thursday, and especially by Friday as the next frontal boundary
pushes into the area.

4)The weekend is looking mainly dry and warm based on the latest
guidance, but cannot rule out a few showers or t`storms as a
disturbance moves through the Mid-Atlantic state

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The weak mid level wave and circulation is pushing
east across our area this morning. Instability is lacking in most
locations, however MUCAPE is up to 100 J/Kg (when parcel is lifted
from 2km agl) across the NW Finger lakes east along I-90. PWATs are
still around 1.8 inches over the entire area, along with a deep warm
cloud layer up to 12k ft, noted on the latest HRRR soundings. Radar
trends show very slow moving and back building showers still
present, especially across Central NY early this morning. Mesonet
observations from some of the steadiest activity shows rates around
1"/hr just west of Steuben county, with around 0.5"/hr in northern
Steuben county, and 1-2 inches of rain along this stripe in the past
3 hours. This axis of moisture and convergence is progged to shift
north-northeast, up along the I-90 corridor and Mohawk Valley
through the mid morning hours, where localized stripes of 0.5 to
1.0 inch of rain could occur (moderate confidence). Still the
threat for flash flooding remains low, as flash flood guidance
is around 2"/hr and 2.5" in 3 hours in this region. HREF and
CAMs show a pivoting area of light to moderate showers lingering
over the Catskills and southern Mohawk Valley region through
the morning hours, while the rest of the area begins to slowly
dry out. A drier air mass continues to advect into the area from
the north late today, and pwats fall to between 1.1" (north)
and 1.5" (NE PA) by afternoon. Skies will become partly sunny by
early afternoon up across the Syrause, Utica, Rome area...and
by mid to late afternoon across the Twin Tiers. It looks like
Northeast PA stays mostly cloudy for most of the day. Surface
winds remain out of the east, under 10 mph through the day
areawide. Temperatures will bump up into the 70s for highs for
most locations, except low 80s for Syracuse and upper 60s for
the Catskills.

Tonight features weak high pressure build overhead, clearing skies
and light winds. As lows radiate down into the 50s, fairly
widespread river valley fog is likely to develop.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After valley fog clears by mid morning, expect partly to mostly
sunny skies and dry weather for a change all day Wednesday. The only
exception to this is the low chance for a stray t`storm across
Steuben and Yates county as a corridor of modest moisture and
instability returns here late in the afternoon or early evening.
Otherwise, it will be a little humid, with highs in the 80s across
Central NY and Northeast PA. Wednesday night sees a weak high
pressure surface ridge extending into the area from the offshore
high pressure center. This should mean partly cloudy skies, light
south winds and patchy fog possible. It will be warmer and muggy
with lows in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

There remains uncertainty on how widespread any showers or
thunderstorms will be on Thursday. The latest NBM ensemble guidance
shows high chance to low end likely chances for showers and storms
by Thursday afternoon. The higher resolution guidance such as the
NAM has a much drier solution, while the latest 00z GFS does show
stripes of QPF developing over our area, along with close to 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE but low shear around 15 kts in the 0-6 KM layer.
Overall, thinking this will be a low forcing event, but with plenty
of instability around. This should mean partly sunny skies with just
some scattered, afternoon pop up showers or storms. Not expecting
widespread coverage at this time. Thursday will be the warmest day
of the week as 1000-500mb thicknesses reach 573dm. This air mass
supports highs in the 80s to even around 90 in the valleys of
Central NY. By Friday, model guidance is in better agreement that a
stronger, more organize front will move into the area and provide
better lift/forcing. This will allow for a higher probability of
showers and storms. The exact timing remains uncertain. However
guidance, such as the 00z GFS is showing up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
and a bit more shear, up to 30 kts as the front moves through. Will
need to watch Friday for the potential of more organized convection,
especially of the timing of the front ends up being later in the
day. With more clouds and showers/storms around temperatures fall
back into the upper 70s to mid 80s on Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

Current guidance sweeps the front through our area Friday night,
with clearing and mainly dry weather around on Saturday. Current
forecast showers mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to
mid-80s once again. Behind the front humidity levels are expected to
be much lower, with dew points back in the mid-50s to low 60s.
Sunday is expected to be mainly dry, but ensemble guidance does show
the chance for a few showers or storms along the northern edge of a
wave passing through the Mid-Atlantic. Dew points and humidity
levels are progged to remain very similar to Saturday. Trends will
be monitored in the ensemble and deterministic guidance. Otherwise,
high temperatures are back in the 80s Sunday, and overnight lows
will be in the mid-50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread MVFR to IFR cigs expected through the majority of the
TAF period. Conditions are expected to slowly improve after
this afternoon. Scattered and brief rain showers are possible
for all terminals, but confidence is low of when they may pass
over a terminal. Any shower will likely not cause vsby
restrictions.

Outlook:

Tuesday night..Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms could
pop up again, but overall trend is towards VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR; High pressure building
in, morning fog likely, mainly at ELM.

Friday into Saturday...Cold front could move in and stall,
leading to persistent showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...KL