Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

173
FXUS61 KBGM 051749
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
149 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A flood watch watch for flash flooding has been issued for
northeast Pennsylvania and Sullivan County, New York.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is some potential for significant flash flooding
somewhere across northeast Pennsylvania to Sullivan County, NY.
However, where exactly the heaviest rain occurs is still
uncertain at this time, but a flash flood watch has been
issued where confidence is highest.

2) Low amplitude weak upper level trough remains in place Tuesday
and Wednesday. This will bring partly sunny conditions, with chances
for a few pop up showers or t`storms along with generally seasonable
temperatures.

3) The next trough and front is progged to slowly move through the
area Thursday into Friday. This will bring increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms along with more warm and humid conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Heavy rain is expected across portions of the region from this
afternoon through early Tuesday morning. A flood watch for flash
flooding is now in effect for all of NEPA and Sullivan County,
NY through 8am Tuesday. There remains some uncertainty in how
far north heavy rain will make it, but at this time, there just
is not enough confidence to include the Southern Tier from
Steuben to Delaware County in a watch, but it is possible that
counties further north could be added in later updates.

Forecast sounding indicate a juicy atmosphere over the region,
with PWATs near 2 inches and high warm cloud layer above 12K
feet. The nearly saturated soundings show skinny CAPE
throughout the column and weak 1000-700mb winds less than 10-15
kts that is parallel to a quasi-stationary boundary that will
eventually edge northward and settle near or just north of the
NY/PA border. Storm motions today will be slow and with the deep
warm cloud depth and skinny CAPE, these storms will be efficient
rainfall producers with intense rainfall rates near 2" per
hour.

The atmosphere remains very well primed for heavy rain through
tonight and Monday. An area of low pressure later this evening
into the overnight hours will help to organize the rain and
convection into a pivoting, rotating cluster, most likely over
NEPA into SE NY, however, exactly where and how far north this
feature makes it remains somewhat uncertain. This pivot point
will be key on who will potentially receive significant
rainfall, as this will increase the duration of intense
rainfall rates over a particular area.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2.5 inches will certainly be
possible from the Twin Tiers on south and there is potential
for localized stripes of 5 inches or more of rain across
portions of NEPA and into the southern Catskills. If rainfall
amounts this high or higher were to occur in any area it would
likely cause major flash flooding, especially if it occurs
across more susceptible flash flood prone areas such as the
Poconos and Catskills, so the flood watch has been issued where
this potential is most likely at this time.

The weak wave of low pressure should eventually pull out into
the Atlantic late Monday night into Tuesday morning and this
will bring an end to the heavy rain across the region.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The upper level trough never really leaves the area entirely heading
into Tuesday and this setup will keep at least a chance for
at least isolated to scattered showers and t`storms in the
forecast, along with mostly cloudy skies. With all the clouds
and scattered showers around, it stays on the cooler side as
highs only reach into the 70s once again. By Wednesday, the
latest ensemble forecast guidance continues to show mainly dry
conditions aside from a stray pop up shower or two. Skies are
also expected to become partly to mostly sunny and high
temperatures warm up into the upper 70s to mid-80s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Thursday is forecast to be the warmest day of the upcoming week
and dry for the first half of the day. The area will be under a
zonal flow pattern, however there is potential that a cold front
pushes into western NY late in the day, bringing the chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Depending on the exact timing, this
front could bring strong to severe thunderstorms if it comes in
during the peak heating hours of the afternoon, but some
ensemble guidance has this front not passing until early Friday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Spotty and slow moving rain showers are popping up this
afternoon across the Southern Tier into NEPA. AVP has a chance
that these showers will develop into thunderstorms so added a
Prob30 through the evening. ELM, BGM and ITH dont have enough
instability to have the confidence to add thunder and with the
isolated nature of the showers so far, just kept vicinity
showers for now unless one pops up right over a terminal.

Tonight, steadier and heavier rain will move in, mainly
affecting the Southern Tier and Southward. Cigs will get to IFR
at BGM, but lower confidence at AVP and ELM. There is a chance
of persistent IFR vis in a narrow band of heavier rain though
exactly where that sets up is unknown right now. BGM and AVP
have the highest chances of seeing this band set up over or near
the terminal.

SYR and RME look to remain north of most of the rain so VFR to
intermittent MVFR tomorrow morning is expected.

Outlook:

Monday afternoon and night...Restrictions continue due to rain
in the area.

Tuesday...Lingering rain showers in the morning with MVFR
conditions, trending towards VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR; High pressure building
in, morning fog likely, mainly at ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
     048-072.
NY...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NYZ062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...AJG