Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

109
FXUS61 KBGM 081147
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
647 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Fog and drizzle are more prevalent early this morning, even
pockets of light freezing drizzle across mainly Oneida County
through daybreak.Clouds linger a little longer this morning.
Gusty south winds 25 to 40 mph late tonight into Friday morning,
especially across the Finger Lakes and hills south of Syracuse.
Rainfall amounts lowered Friday, around or less than a tenth of
an inch for most locations. Higher rainfall totals expected
Saturday into Saturday night, between one-third to three-
quarters of an inch for most locations. Temperatures and dew
points trending a little cooler on Saturday, reducing rate of
snow melt some.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Mild and partly sunny today. Much warmer weather with periods
of rain in the forecast Friday and Saturday. Expecting a lot of
snow melt and any river ice will likely break up.

2) Cool down, back toward seasonable temperatures early next
week. Chances for snow showers and minor lake effect return
mainly Sunday night.

3) Quiet, seasonably mild and partly sunny weather on tap for
early next week. Next clipper and cold front by Wednesday into
next Thursday. Colder weather to potentially follow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak disturbance is bringing fog, mist, drizzle and even a few
showers early this morning. Clouds will lingering into the mid
or even late morning hours before clearing for some partial
sunshine this afternoon as high pressure builds. Expect mild
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid-40s this afternoon.

The next low pressure system is progged to track across the
central Great Lakes tonight into Friday. The low passing to our
west will bring a warm southerly flow to our area. A warm
frontal boundary will settle over the area on Friday with
periods scattered showers expected. Rainfall amounts will be
light, generally less than a tenth of an inch for most locations.
High temperatures surge well up into the mid-40s and even some
lower 50s. The increase in moisture and temperatures will melt a
good deal of the snow pack. This frontal boundary stalls and
washes out just east of the area Friday night. Some modestly
cooler air may gradually work into the forecast area from NW to
SE overnight, with lows in the 30s for Central NY, and mid-30s
to lower 40s in NE PA. Little if any rain is expected Friday night.

The next low develops over the Tennessee Valley Saturday morning,
then tracks toward New York City Saturday night, before
dragging a stronger cold front through the area on Sunday.
Steady rain is likely to breakout over the area on Saturday and
continue into Saturday night; before shifting east late at
night. Right now guidance is pointing toward rainfall amounts
between about one-third of an inch and three-quarters of an
inch, with localized amounts around 1 inch in NE PA.

Temperatures and dew points are trending lower on Saturday due
to a more southerly low track, with the primary low way back
west near Lake Superior and the secondary low (as mentioned
above) near NYC Saturday afternoon. This will potentially keep
more of an easterly to east-southeast flow of cooler air wedged
into the area. Therefore temperatures were lowered, with highs
now expected to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, except mid-40s
in the Wyoming Valley. In fact, we cannot rule out some isolated
pockets of freezing rain at the onset in the normally colder
spots in Central NY; something to monitor trends on.

It is still likely that nearly all the snow currently on the
ground will melt for the lower elevations. Current data shows
generally a trace to 2 inches of snow water equivalent, with
pockets of 3 inches of SWE noted across the Catskills and higher
elevations of the far northern Susquehanna Region in Central
NY. 1 to 3 inches of SWE exists across Onondaga and Madison
counties at this time. Oneida county has more, with widespread 2
to 5 inches of SWE, locally 6-8 inches across the southern Tug
Hill region of the county (i.e. Boonville, Woodgate, Point Rock
and Florence area).

At this time no major hydro issues are anticipated, but certainly
ponding of water in low lying areas and rises on area creeks and
rivers are plausible. Forecast ensembles are showing low chances
to reach minor flood stage at Conklin, Cortland and Sherburne
of around 10 to 15%. However, these are the only sites even
showing anything close to minor flood stage at this time and any
widespread flooding is unlikely.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A potent cold front swings through the region Sunday morning,
with the upper level trough settling overhead Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. Temperatures will turn much cooler, back
closer to seasonable levels for this time period. Northwest
winds also become breezy and gusty, likely 10 to 20 mph, with
gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected. Official forecast went well
above the latest NBM guidance and was based more off the
deterministic guidance, along with forecast collaboration with
neighboring Weather Service Offices. Some scattered snow showers
and lake effect snow showers are expected to develop later on
Sunday and into Sunday night, before quickly diminishing Monday
morning.

Increased PoPs this timeframe across the I-90 corridor, as NBM
was not picking up the lake effect snow very well. At this
time, any accumulations are forecast to be light.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The cool down will also be short-lived, as the trough flattens
into a zonal flow pattern with temperatures returning back to
being several degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday next
week. The next clipper system looks to bring a cold front
through the area sometime Wednesday or early next Thursday,
perhaps bringing a return to more normal mid winter temperatures
by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ceilings have lifted at several terminals quicker than expected.
ITH is VFR and satellite images show this should remain through
the day as there is a scattering of the cloud deck west of the
terminal headed to the east. Same goes for BGM where IFR
restrictions have lifted to MVFR and this should lift to VFR in
the next couple of hours as clouds scatter out. Both of these
terminals had some unexpected rain showers move through the area
which seems to have caused enough mixing for the low ceilings to
dissipate.

RME seems to remain on track for IFR and lower restrictions
into the early afternoon hours as clouds are not expected to
scatter our any time soon with flow off Lake Ontario and a
deeper snowpack keeping the fog rolling through the morning
hours. SYR should see periodic MVFR ceilings this morning as
lake moisture helps keep some of the lower ceiling around.

ELM and AVP will remain VFR through the day.

LLWS is expected to pick up tonight from west to east starting
around 6z at ELM and 10z at RME. Initial shear of 35-45kts will
increase to 45-50kts by 10-11Z as a low level jet cranks up
ahead of an approaching low pressure system. This shear should
last into Friday morning.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Possible restrictions with fog and
rain showers. LLWS on Friday.

Sunday...Possible restrictions with rain and snow showers.

Monday... High pressure builds to our south, potential for VFR
conditions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...JTC