Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

880
FXUS61 KBGM 130008
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
708 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Light lake effect snow will persist further into tonight with
some stronger snow showers extending further south than
expected. No other significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake effect snow persisting further into tonight before
gradually ending late.

2) Weak clipper Friday night, early Saturday and another weak
trough moving through Sun night into Monday morning.

3) Pattern becomes favorable for a noticeable warm up late
Monday through the middle of the week with increasing chances
for wintry mix type precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Lake effect snow plumes continue to surge across CNY, extending
even down into the Endless Mountains of NEPA and even some
flurries still falling in the Catskills without much signal that
they will give up. Not really seeing the 850 mb ridge cresting
over the area until well after midnight which will keep the
northwesterly flow going until it appears as though some better
low level shear between the surface and 925 mb works in after
06Z. Better drying is also apparent after that time, too...at
least to knock down the healthier snow showers. Accumulations
from anything appear to be a dusting to possibly 2 inches under
the heaviest tracks...but even most of that should be on
existing snowpack without much influence elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A brief period of upper level ridging on Friday will be quickly
replaced by the next clipper system expected to roll through
Friday night and Saturday morning. There will be a brief period
of deep enough moisture to trigger 1 to 3 inches of snow, mainly
over the eastern Finger Lakes into the Catskills through Sat
morning. The trough washes out quickly as it moves into New
England on Saturday.

Temperatures respond later on Saturday as the trough passes
through and upper ridging builds into the mid Atlantic region
along with warming temperatures. Highs on Saturday in the lower
30s in central NY to lower 40s in ne PA. A stronger push of warm
air will be seen on Sunday with highs topping out in the mid
30s to lower 40s north into the southern tier of NY.

A more impactful system slides eastward to our south late
Sunday into Monday and an adjacent short wave to the north
pushes through the eastern Great Lakes. This system will produce
fairly light precipitation, but could be in the form of a
wintry mix with warmer air aloft riding over top sfc temps in
the 20s Monday morning. Will need to watch how this system and
the thermal fields evolve.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The large scale synoptic field across the CONUS becomes more
defined by a digging trough in the west and a slowly
responding/muted ridge in the east. There is still some
uncertainty with respect to how amplified this ridge over the
eastern third of the country gets. Looking at a cluster
analysis of the latest ensembles it appears that more of the
variance in the output is described by the timing of the
ridge/trough couplet rather than the amplitude. So, looking at
various solutions of models and ensembles, the fact that most
are bringing in a flatter ridge seems to point at this time to a
muted warm up next week, which is favorable for steady river ice
melting and limited potential flooding impacts.

We will also need to watch the potential for wintery mix type
precipitation as a couple waves move east along the northern
periphery of the ridge axis and trigger some favorable
conditions for rain/snow/sleet and possibly freezing rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue into the night mainly
affecting KSYR-KITH-KBGM with restrictions until 06Z. MVFR-Fuel
Alt ceilings will prevail within reach of the snow bands with
generally VFR-MVFR on the fringes. Should see some improvement
at times overnight, but then model guidance was suggesting a
resurgence of MVFR ceiling restrictions toward 12Z lasting
possibly through 16-18Z. Not much confidence in this happening
unless models are picking up on surging trapped low clouds in
with the leading edge of building high pressure. Either
way...VFR with scattered clouds is expected later Friday
afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday... High pressure returns with VFR
conditions expected at this time.

Sunday...Restrictions possible with the potential for a system
to move into the area.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR, possible restrictions Tuesday
with rain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAB/BG
AVIATION...JAB/KL