Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

151
FXUS61 KBGM 010605
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
205 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Upgraded the extreme heat watch to a warning for Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity becomes unhealthy and dangerous in some areas
for the rest of this week.

2) Several rounds of scattered thunderstorms could occur through
the week and into the weekend. Severe weather and locally heavy
rainfall and flooding will be possible within the favorable
warm and humid conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build northward
through the region over the next couple of days. Humidity will
also increase a bit as well with the moist west-southwest flow.
Modeled 925 mb temperatures and ensemble guidance are in fairly
good agreement of what the high temperatures could end up being
each day through Friday. Overall, the recent NBM biases appear
to have reduced as well which increases the confidence in the
forecast for a dangerously hot and humid period through Friday.

Most locations should get into the low and mid 90`s today,
coupled with the humidity this should get the top heat index
values above 100 to locally 110 degrees this afternoon. Thursday
looks like the warmest day with indications a few locations may
hit 100 degrees for the high temperature. Temperatures then
should drop slightly Friday. Modeling shows a cold front
bringing potential relief to the heat wave by the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Modeling has had a poor handle on thunderstorm coverage and
location over the past day or two. An MCS complex is currently
moving southward toward the NY Thruway corridor. Given a more
stable environment ahead of it the convection should decrease
through the overnight hours. Additional clusters of showers and
thunderstorms should develop on the edges of the high pressure
ridge tracking from the Great Lakes and Canada toward northern
portions of our region. With the ridge building northward and
increasing 700mb temperatures between 11-13C by Thursday thunderstorm
coverage overall should be less than what the NBM has. However,
will continue to monitor trends for any additional MCS
complexes. A cold front looks to sag south into the region for
the weekend increasing the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A line of showers and storms is currently moving into the area
from the north. This will impact SYR and RME between 06z and
07z, changing to rain showers for a few hours after the storms
move through. Uncertainty remains as to how far south the line
will hold together as it moves into a much more stable airmass.
It could provide some showers and maybe a rumble of thunder at
ITH, but confidence was not high enough to include it in the
TAF. ITH currently has IFR fog that should remain through the
night thanks to rain that fell earlier this evening.

Another afternoon of isolated thunderstorms is expected with the
possibility of another line of showers and storms moving through
late in the evening to overnight hours. But with model guidance
widely varied, confidence was not high enough to include storms
in any of the TAFs at this time.


Outlook:

Wednesday night through Sunday...Mostly VFR, but intermittent
restrictions will be possible with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Current High Temperature Records:

7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018)
7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

Forecasts for 7/1 and 7/2 are at or just over the daily
records.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Friday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Friday for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-
     062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...JTC
CLIMATE...MDP