Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

618
FXUS61 KBGM 290617
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
117 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A cold weather advisory for all of northeast PA and for Steuben
and Sullivan counties in NY tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake effect snow showers continue through the week with light
accumulations over Onondaga, Madison and Oneida County.

2) A reinforcement of Arctic air arrives Thursday into Friday.
Cold weather advisories are likely with possibly extreme cold
headlines in the Poconos due to the lower thresholds (-20F or
lower).

3) Coastal low still well south and east of our region and any
impacts from this storm look more and more unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

West-northwest flow off Lake Ontario will continue to produce
lake effect snow showers right on into this weekend. However,
due to the continued cold air that has been over the region,
lake surface water temperatures have cooled considerably, so
this limits the inland extent of the lake effect snow bands. For
today, the lake effect bands off of Ontario have remained north
of the region, but they will drop south again into north
central NY by early tomorrow morning and continue into Friday.
Accumulations will get close to advisory criteria, but due to
the long duration of the snow and and this is an extremely
light/fluffy snow, so not seeing much in the way of impacts to
warrant an advisory. Highest amounts in our CWA will be across
Onondaga County, where 2-4" will be possible through Friday morning.

Key Message #2...

Another upper level trough will swing into the northeast
Thursday into Friday, ushering in an additional surge of cold
air. Temperatures at 850 mb are forecast to fall to -20C to -24C,
with surface temperatures remaining below zero for much of the
area. Additional cold weather headlines will be needed for
Thursday night into Friday morning with a widespread cold
weather advisory likely. Localized wind chill temperatures could
approach -25F to -30F across higher elevations with widespread
-10F to -20F expected.

Key Message #3...

Only added this key message as the coastal low has been on
everyone`s radar since models first started advertising its
potential a few days ago. However, at this time, this powerful
storm is forecast to pass south and east of the 70/40 benchmark.
A track outside of that benchmark means that our area is likely
to see zero impacts from this system, unless there is a
significant shift westward. If you have a vacation planned for
Cape Cod or for Nova Scotia, Canada, then you may want to
monitor the forecast of this system closely. Otherwise, we are
another model cycle or two from being able to drop it from our
discussion here.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Lake effect snow develops early this morning and will drop into
the northern portions of the area over the next several hours
(before daybreak). The snow should be brief at RME as the west-
northwest flow and low inland extent will favor snow showers at
SYR for the rest of the TAF period. Best chance to see IFR at
SYR looks to hold off until closer to sunrise, and then through
the morning hours. Perhaps a brief lull in the steadier snow
showers and IFR conditions in the afternoon, with a return to
IFR steady snow showers for the evening hours.

Expect VFR conditions elsewhere for the overnight and morning
hours. Lake clouds drop down from the north bringing MVFR
conditons to ITH after about 16z today, but not until 02z this
evening at BGM and it is now forecast to remain VFR for the
entire taf period at ELM. VFR at AVP, except just a short
period of borderline MVFR CIGs (19-23z), before returning to VFR.

Light snow showers will be possible at ITH this afternoon and
evening and could extend down to BGM by evening as well; but
lower confidence here. Mainly MVFR with these snow showers and
flurries.

Expect west-southwest winds this morning, less than 10 kts
through 15z. Then, winds veer west-northwest this afternoon
increasing to 8-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts at times. Winds then
diminish back under 10 kts during the evening hours.

Outlook...

Late Tonight through Saturday...On and off lake effect snow
showers may result in occasional restrictions at KRME and KSYR;
otherwise mainly VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Friday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-
     062.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ022-
     062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPK
AVIATION...BTL/MJM