Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

673
FXUS61 KBGM 100209
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1009 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Quieter weather for the rest of the day, but storms return
Monday as an active pattern ramps back up.

2) High pressure on Tuesday should keep the weather quiet.
Active weather returns through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure is in control, and with NW flow across the
area, much of the humidity has dissipated. Dewpoints in the
mid to upper 50s across the area with highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s will make for a wonderful afternoon and evening. Mostly
clear skies tonight will allow lows to fall into the upper 50s
to low 60s.

A Ring of Fire weather pattern looks to set up for much of the
week next week, starting on Monday. The Bermuda high will slide
to the SW tonight into Monday and merge with the ridge that has
set up shop over over the western US for the past few weeks.
This will open a corridor of active weather from the western
Great Lakes SE into the Mid Atlantic for much of the week. The
ridge will provide the hot, humid air needed for convection
while shortwaves riding the NE edge of the ridge will provide
the shear for storm organization. Several Mesoscale Convective
Systems are expected to develop over the northern Plains and
follow the ridge into the Mid-Atlantic region. The first one is
expected Monday and is currently the only one expected to impact
our region through mid-week. This system should crash through
the Great Lakes, entering western New York by the mid-morning
hours. A morning arrival and clouds ahead of this system will
limit the instability available for strong to severe
thunderstorms to develop. By late morning to early afternoon,
MLCAPE values increase to 1000-1500 j/kg and 0-6km shear
increases from the teens to 30-35kts as the afternoon
progresses. If the MCS can hold together through the morning
hours and moves into this more primed area, currently over the
Southern Tier into NEPA, we could see strong to damaging winds
with isolated tornadoes during the afternoon and evening hours.
At this same time, a low pressure system will track to our north
across Canada, allowing scattered showers and storms to develop
north of the Southern Tier. With severe parameters here lacking,
especially the shear, severe storm development chances are much
lower. Thats not to say an isolated storm may develop a
microburst that could produce damaging winds. To go along with
the severe threat, recent rains have left the area saturated.
PWATs are expected to be about 1.5in through much of the day, so
heavy rain leading to isolated flash flooding will be possible.

Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s north of the
Southern Tier with low to mid 80s across the Southern Tier and
NEPA.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure is currently progged to fill in behind the MCS and
low pressure system moving through the area on Monday. This
should lead to quite a lovely day as much of the active weather
will be to our south as another MCS is forecast to roll through
OH, PA and into the Virginias. Tuesday should see partly sunny
skies and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and dewpoints in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

Active weather returns again mid-week as a trough digs into the
area, bringing scattered showers and storms. Guidance is
uncertain on the timing and placement of the trough with some
having it dig south, pushing cool air into the region to end the
week, while others have the ridge to the west winning out and
keeping the trough farther north with warmer temperatures.
Shower and storm coverage and strength will depend on the
timing and location of the trough, so confidence in this
remains low given the low confidence in guidance`s current
handling of the trough. Most of the guidance does point to a
ridge building over the area by Saturday, allowing cooler air to
filter in by the weekend, with highs in the low to mid 70s for
both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for tonight as mid and high clouds
increase overnight out ahead of a decaying MCS that is tracking
across the Ohio Valley. The increase in clouds should also cut
down on the fog potential, but areas of patchy fog will be
possible. Late evening 20k+ cloud bases should lower to mid-
level cigs around daybreak.

Mainly VFR flight conditions expected for Monday. The exception
will be with showers/storms that will move across the terminals
for Monday morning and then again later Monday afternoon. Lower
confidence among guidance for placement and timing will keep
the showers mostly in the prob30 groups. Reductions will be
possible with any heavier downpours for both VSBYs and CIGs,
with VSBYs having the greatest potential for greatest
reductions, perhaps down to IFR at times.

Outlook:

Monday afternoon through Thursday...Unsettled pattern with periods
of showers and scattered thunderstorms with associated restrictions.
Restrictions with overnight fog/low clouds are also possible.

Friday...Returning to VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...SJW