Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

465
FXUS61 KBGM 291809
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
209 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes made to increase cloud cover this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure for the middle of the week with dry conditions
Wednesday.

2) A warm front brings a low chance for showers Thursday
morning, followed by a cold front and widepsread showers on
Friday. Temperatures turn colder behind the front with frost
possible across the north this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure has pushed into the region, but low level moisture
trapped under a subsidence inversion has kept extensive cloud
cover across the region today. This moist layer will start to
scour out this afternoon with some clearing this evening and
overnight, however clouds will likely increase again tomorrow
morning.

High pressure will center itself over the region tomorrow, with
dry conditions. However, upper level clouds will increase and
still likely going to see mostly cloudy conditions through the
day. Warm air advection on southwesterly flow will push
temperatures into the 70s with upper 60s in the Catskills.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Warm front will cross the region tomorrow night through Thursday
morning. This will bring a few light showers across the area,
but nothing substantial. The next chance for rain will come on
Friday, when the cold front crosses the region. Scattered showers
are expected across the area on Friday, and QPF is currently at
a quarter inch or less across most of the region. The front
exits the region Friday night with Canadian high pressure
pushing in behind it. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees
cooler on Saturday than Thursday and Friday`s highs that top out
in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows could get into the low
to mid 30s Saturday night across northern Oneida County, but
there remains some uncertainty with cloud cover, as another
system approaches by early Sunday morning.

At this time, there are some timing differences amongst the
model guidance on an upper trough/cold front dropping out of
Canada Sunday into Monday and low pressure tracking off the Mid
Atlantic Coast to our south. A faster and stronger cold front
will keep the track of the low to far south to bring substantial
moisture into region. This would make shower activity on Sunday
fairly light with scattered coverage. For now, the NBM has about
30 to 40 percent shower chances from the Twin Tiers on southward
and 20 to 30 percent chances across Central NY. Due to the
uncertainty, decided not to stray from the NBM solution at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR cigs have remained stubborn early this afternoon with
little clearing so MVFR cigs likely continue. SYR may clear as
the clouds are trying to scatter out just to the north. Tonight,
the cigs continue to scatter out and with partial clearing,
there is a good chance at fog development, mainly for the
Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes. ELM, BGM, and ITH have the
best chance at LIFR tonight. RME and AVP have lower confidence
so put in some restrictions overnight but did not bring it down
to LIFR.

Tomorrow finally has enough dry air behind the departing
noreaster so VFR area wide is likely by around 15Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog in the
favorable areas, especially at KELM will be possible, which will
likely result in restrictions.

Friday through Saturday...Scattered showers and associated
restrictions possible.

Sunday...Low pressure passing near by, potential for
restrictions if it passes through the Northeast.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KL/MPK
AVIATION...AJG/BJG