Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

573
FXUS61 KBGM 271752
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
152 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
High temperatures were lowered Wednesday with extensive showers and
cloud cover expected.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected again today.
Showers may produce locally heavy rainfall.

2) A low pressure system will bring widespread rain showers and the
potential for strong thunderstorms midweek.

3) The week will end with a period of drier weather though
shower chances return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Areas of fog will be possible this morning given the moisture added
from recent showers, calm winds, and clearing skies. The valleys
have the greatest potential for dense fog as visibilities are
expected to drop below a mile. Fog will linger through daybreak,
slowly clearing out after sunrise.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
once again today. These diurnally driven showers and storms will
have additional support from weak waves passing along a broad
trough. The MLCAPE will be around 500 to 1000 J/kg, but 0-6 km bulk
shear will be 20 kts or less suggesting a pulse storm convective
mode. As seen in model soundings, there is little wind to mix down
later today. Instability does extend into the hail growth zone so
small hail would be possible. Given the weak shear though, severe
storms are not expected. With weak flow aloft, storms may be slow
moving. Despite PWATs only peaking at 1.5 inches today, localized
flash flooding may be possible if a slow moving storm develops over
an urban or poor drainage area, similarly to what happened in the
eastern Syracuse suburbs last evening.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

As the upper level trough digs over the Northeast Monday night into
Tuesday, a stacked low pressure system begins to take shape. This
system will bring widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to
the region Tuesday morning. Models show instability increasing by
the afternoon hours, mainly east of I-81. That may be possible if
showers a slow to spread eastward and there is some morning
sunshine. However, model guidance have trended slightly faster, so
the instability looks to be overdone. Even with good instability,
shear is looking weak once again with the exception of portions of
Northeast PA where 0-6km shear would be around 30 kts.

This system will spin over the region and slightly enhanced LLJ out
of the south will advect in moisture from the Atlantic Tuesday
afternoon and into Tuesday night. This is when PWAT values will peak
with values between 1.75 and 2 inches. In addition, the Corfidi
Upshear vector speed is low, suggesting that training of showers and
storms may be possible during this time as well. This and orographic
enhancement could enhance rainfall amounts over a short period of
time and lead to localized flash flooding. Rivers and streams have
been low for awhile now and have taken on any recent rainfall well.
Ensemble forecasts have non-zero chances for our typical trouble
spots to reach action. There does remain uncertainty where the
highest rainfall amounts will be though and these forecasts may
change. WPC has a slight risk for excessive rainfall for parts of
the region on Tuesday, which seems reasonable given the overall set
up.

A dry slot will try to nudge its way into the region Wednesday
morning and bring a break from the showers for some. However, this
low slowly drifts eastward and will keep wraparound moisture over
the region through at least the daytime hours on Thursday before the
system slides off and drier air moves in. PWATs will not be as high
as Tuesday during this time but additional rain on already saturated
areas may further enhance any issues the develop. WPC maintains a
Marginal Risk through Wednesday.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

With surface high pressure building into the region, it will be a
pleasant end to the work week. Unfortunately, this dry period may be
brief as another upper level trough approaches the region Saturday.
There remains uncertainty on the shape of this trough and how much
it may dig over the region. Shower coverage may be scattered on
Saturday before becoming more widespread on Sunday as the trough
moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through
this evening. Given the spotty nature of the convection,
vicinity showers are in the forecast with TEMPO groups for
thunder for all terminals except RME and SYR at this time where
confidence was lowest. If need be, any thunderstorm will be
amended in for those locations. Early tomorrow morning, a band
of showers is expected to move through from west to east
generally from 08Z-14Z that can produce at least MVFR
restrictions. Confidence in thunder is too low at this time, but
something that will be monitored. Additional scattered showers
and isolated storms are expected throughout the rest of the TAF
with lowering ceilings with MVFR/Fuel alt restrictions expected.
IFR ceilings can`t be ruled out, but confidence wasn`t high
enough to include this go around.

Outlook:

Tuesday afternoon through Thursday... Showers and isolated
thunderstorms with restrictions through Wednesday then scattered
showers Thursday with possible restrictions.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR; low chance of a shower or
thunderstorm.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...DK