Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

744
FXUS61 KBGM 101951
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
351 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated chances of precipitation today, as well as lowered dew
points tomorrow from models with mixing and them likely
overdoing the surface evaporation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and muggy conditions are expected today into the weekend
before a cold front moves through bringing less muggy air for
early next week.

2) Multiple systems are expected to move across the region
through Friday, bringing rain and thunderstorm chances. Some of
the thunderstorms could be severe Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A large ridge over the eastern US with SW flow will keep
advecting in warm 850 mb temperatures of 15 to 20C. With dew
points in the upper 60s and low 70s, it will feel muggy with
overnight lows remaining warm. Cloud cover and rain shower
development will likely limit the the next couple of days look
better high temperature potential and limit the heat index
below advisory criteria but could get close along the I-90
corridor. If tomorrow or Friday trends sunnier, a heat advisory
may be needed. A front moves through Friday into Saturday,
helping to lower dew points back down into the 50s and low 60s
so while temperatures remain warm, the humidity will be much
lower.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Storms that have developed this afternoon have been so far
mainly pulse storms due to the lack of meaningful wind shear.
Storm cores have struggled to get the 50 dbz to -20C with so far
the highest wind gusts around 30 mph. Low and mid level lapse
rates have been poor so its been tough for storm downdrafts to
accelerate towards the surface. Still a few of the taller storms
that form later today may get some decent microburst with winds
to 60 mph.

Tonight into tomorrow, a warm front lifts in with a bit of a
modified elevated mixed layer moving in. Lapse rates from 500 to
700 mb have trended down somewhat from previous runs but still
will need to be watched overnight for convection that starts
along the warm front. Confidence is low that storms will
actually fire. Shear is not very high, only around 20 to 25
knots so severe storms are not expected though elevated storms
may produce some small hail.

Tomorrow, the modified elevated mixed layer moves east fairly
fast with mid level lapse rates falling back to near 6C/km.
Mixed layer CAPE looks to get over 1500 for much of CNY into
NEPA so there will be plenty of energy with a 500 mb vorticity
wave moving through as a trigger. Forecast hodographs are pretty
strait so damaging wind gusts are the main concern with any
storms that fire. The weakening mid level lapse rates through
the day lower the hail risk and the lack of meaningful helicity
also lowers chances of any spin ups.

Friday is when the front goes through, with a line of storms
likely developing along it. Mid level lapse rates will be
steeper with shear increasing through the day. Hodographs are
still looking fairly strait so strong wind gusts and some small
hail are the main concern with the storms along the front.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and storms have moved into the area and will spread to
the east as the afternoon and evening progresses. At least MVFR
restrictions should occur at all terminals during thunderstorms.
Given the expected heavy downpours and where the best convection
is at, SYR and ELM are currently the only terminals with tempo IFR
visby expected this afternoon. IFR may occur at the other
terminals, but confidence in location and timing of storms with
heavy rain is too low to include IFR in these TAFs.

The first round of showers and storms should be east of the area
by 00z. A brief clearing period may bring fog to ELM before
midnight. Confidence was not high enough to include IFR
restrictions from the fog, but there will be a chance for it
before the next round of rain showers move in for a few hours
overnight. These showers should roll over the CNY terminals late
tonight into the early morning hours. There may be some isolated
thunderstorms embedded with in these showers, but the
convection is expected to be elevated so severe weather is not
expected. MVFR restrictions will be possible. RME currently
seems to be the only terminal with the best chance for IFR
ceilings lat tonight after the expected heavy rain and light
winds.

All terminals should return to VFR before the mid morning hours.
Another round of shower and storms should approach the area from
the west starting in the late morning to early afternoon hours.


Outlook:

Thursday afternoon through Friday Night...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions, especially
each afternoon.

Saturday into Sunday...Cold front moves through with VFR
conditions likely, potential fog at ELM overnight.

Sunday afternoon and Monday... Showers return with MVFR
restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...JTC