Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

181
FXUS61 KBGM 040755
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
255 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

A later onset time is likely for showers late Wednesday night
through Thursday morning limiting freezing rain potential.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Warm front will move into the region late Wednesday night through
Thursday bringing rain showers.


2) Spring-like conditions are expected late this week into early
next week with above normal temperatures and multiple chances for
rain showers. River rises are expected, with an increasing risk of
possible flooding, perhaps including isolated ice jams.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Brief surface high pressure builds into the region this morning
keeping conditions dry through the afternoon. Flow shifts
southwest as the day progresses allowing temperatures to climb
into the upper 40s to low 50s. High pressure will be short lived
as another system approaches our region from the south
Wednesday night. Timing of when this system arrives will impact
whether or not freezing rain is a possibility. If showers push
into the region late Wednesday night before daybreak early
Thursday morning, temperatures will be hover around freezing
allowing a brief period of freezing rain over the Susquehanna
region and Western Catskills region. A delayed onset of
precipitation would remove the freezing rain potential entirely.
GFS solution continues to bring in showers sooner than ECMWF,
CAMs show showers moving in more towards daybreak. With these
timing differences decided to stick with the NBM at this time,
although a later onset is looking more likely at this time with
rain expected.

The warm front will slowly lift across the area Thursday through
early Friday, with waves running along it causing several batches of
showers. Highs of 40s to lower 50s are anticipated Thursday,
pressing to mid 40s to mid 50s Friday as the warm front makes more
headway through the region. These batches of rain will be joined by
snowmelt as these warmer temperatures occur.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Due to a warmer and more active pattern rivers are expected to rise
late this week into early next week. Highs on Saturday will be the
warmest we have seen so far this season with temperatures in the low
to mid 60s. Some spotty showers cant be ruled out for Saturday as
south westerly flow will continue to bring a few shots of moisture
along side the ridge. A cold front is expected to move through the
region sometime Saturday night into Sunday bringing potential for
widespread showers and even some embedded thunder. PWATS on the GFS
are up to 4 standard deviations above normal for this time of
year. This suggests there is potential for localized heavy
downpours. Rivers and streams will need close monitoring
including possible ice jams.

River ensemble forecasts show potential of several points entering
action stage if not even possible minor flooding at a few points.
Recent thinning of ice has occurred, but a risk of ice jams is still
present. Whatever potential there is, will reveal itself Friday
through the weekend because river rises will be significant enough
to break up and move the ice. If the ice is thick enough, there
could be isolated jams and associated erratic water levels at
bridges and pinch points. But if not, the silver lining will be the
flushing through of most if not all of the ice in the rivers.

Despite the passage of a cold front temperatures Sunday remain warm
in the low to upper 50s. Southwesterly flow quickly returns by
Monday, allowing temperatures to remain in the 50s and 60s
early next week.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Precipitation is moving out of the region, though there looks
to be one more quick round of showers for AVP. All terminals are
expected to be IFR/LIFR early this morning due to low ceilings
and/or fog. Conditions will improve slightly after sunrise,
though IFR ceilings will likely linger until midday. Then with
skies clearing and fog lifting, conditions will become VFR.
Another system will bring rain showers to the region tonight,
though that looks to be after 06z. However, cloud cover will
increase ahead of this system and MVFR ceilings are expected at
AVP, BGM, and possibly ELM just before the end of the TAF
period. Winds will be light today and tonight

Outlook:

Thursday through Saturday...Multiple chances for rain and fog
with fluctuating restrictions throughout the week.

Sunday...Improving to VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ES/MDP
AVIATION...BTL