Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

373
FXUS61 KBGM 101810
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
210 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall amounts have trended slightly higher Sunday into Sunday
night. Chances for rain and thunderstorms increased on Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and pleasant fall weather expected today, along with mild
temperatures.

2) Periods of rain and breezy southeast winds Sunday into Sunday
night from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias. Dry and warm weather
returns in its wake for Monday.

3) The next frontal system looks to bring numerous showers and a
chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday. Dry weather returns for the
middle of next week, along with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1
High level cirrus clouds will continue to stream over the area
this morning, gradually becoming a bit thicker and solid by late
afternoon and evening. Otherwise, there could be some patchy
valley fog around this morning. Light southeast winds are
forecast through the day, less than 10 mph. Overall, it will be
partly sunny with filter sunshine through the high clouds. It
will be seasonably warm with highs in the 60s.

Tonight will feature increasing, thickening and lowering cirrus
clouds. It will be cool, especially east and north of Binghamton,
with lows in the 40s for most locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2
There still remains some minor uncertainty on the exact timing
of the incoming rain Sunday morning. Some of the CAMs guidance
is slower by 3-4 hours, and some quicker. Overall, it appears
the steady rain will overspread the areas fairly quickly through
the morning hours on Sunday...but potentially not reaching
Syracuse, Utica, Rome and Cooperstown until Sunday afternoon.
Periods of steady rain continue through the day and evening
hours, with also a slight chance for a thunderstorm. Otherwise,
it will be overcast and cooler with highs in the mid-50s to
lower 60s. East-southeast winds will increase, especially over
the ridgetops...between 8-15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph for the
hilltops in NE PA. Total rainfall amounts have nudged back up
to between 0.6 to 1.00 inches areawide. Current guidance has the
rain quickly tapering off and ending after midnight Sunday
night.

Monday is looking dry, with gradually decreasing clouds as an upper
level ridge pushes in from the west. Winds shift northwesterly and
mild high temperatures should reach well into the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3
A surface low is forecast to track to our north
through the day on Tuesday. This will put our CWA in the warm
sector, with southwest winds and warm temperatures expected.
There will also be some surface based instability as LIs drop to
-2 and SBCAPE could reach 200-500 J/Kg...depending on boundary
layer destabilization and heating. If current timing hold, the
cold front would approach the area late in the day or evening on
Tuesday. With the 00z GFS showing 30-40 kts of 0-6km bulk
shear, we may need to watch for some organizing convection along
or ahead of the front. Ensemble guidance is in generally good
agreement with this frontal system, and chances for rain are
increasing (60-80% over the area). If we do get some breaks of
sun, it could be quite warm on Tuesday with highs in the mid-60s
to low 70s.

Behind this frontal system the latest guidance keeps it mainly dry
and seasonably cool for Wednesday and Thursday next week. The next
chance for rain will be Friday, into Saturday as a potentially deep
trough approaches the forecast area. This could bring much cooler
temperatures for next weekend, stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Quiet VFR weather through much of the overnight hours with high
clouds overhead from the remnants of Isaias. Rain from this
system will begin to push into AVP around sunrise, with
conditions falling to Fuel alt 1-2 hours later, then IFR
restriction through the end of the TAF period.

BGM/ELM/ITH will see rain showers move in by mid-morning, with
MVFR/Fuel alt conditions quickly following. IFR restrictions may
develop late in the TAF period during periods of heavier rain,
but confidence in IFR occurring is too low to include in the
TAFs at this time.

SYR and RME should start to see rain showers late morning/early
afternoon but VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period.


Outlook...

Sunday afternoon and Sunday night...IFR restrictions possible
through the overnight hours.

Monday through Monday night...Generally VFR conditions with
weak high pressure passing through.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions possible as
another low pressure system approaches the region with showers
and even a small chance of daytime thunder.

Wednesday through Thursday...High pressure building in should
result in mostly VFR conditions with the exception of valley fog
at ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...JTC