Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

516
FXUS61 KBGM 280557
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
157 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Allowed for some slight chance PoPs this afternoon, mainly east
of I-81 in the Catskills with cool air aloft and a departing
upper trough leading to enough instability for a few pop up
showers.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Noticeably cooler conditions will be in place today with a
mix of clouds and sun along with a few isolated showers.

2) Low pressure moving south toward New England late Friday and
Friday night will drag a cold front across the area with a
reinforcing shot of cooler air Saturday and Saturday night.

3) Near to below average temperatures are expected early next
week along with isolated shower chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level shortwave trough will be dropping south out of
Canada and across our area today, drawing in noticeably cooler
conditions. As the trough axis approaches prior to daybreak,
there can be some isolated showers that develop around the Lake
Plain that continue to drift south through the Finger Lakes
region through the morning hours. Heading into the afternoon,
with the trough working its way east, the cool air aloft and
just enough moisture lingering before dry air pushes in, there
can be some isolated instability showers that pop up east of
I-81, mainly in the Catskills. Northwesterly winds will also be
increasing this afternoon with gusts of 20-25 mph, along with a
few higher gusts. Highs will be mainly in the 60s today, but
closer to or into the lower 70s for the Wyoming and Delaware
River Valleys in NE PA. Lows tonight range from the mid 40s to
around 50 degrees under a mostly clear sky.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a slight recovery on Friday with high temperatures in the
upper 60s and 70s, the next potent upper low drops south late
Friday into Friday night and passes by to our east across New
England. The surface front with this feature can bring a few
spotty showers to the area later Friday afternoon into Friday
night, but the bulk of the moisture looks to stay east. With the
low off to our east Saturday, a strong northerly flow will
inject a fresh bout of cool, Canadian air over the region along
with a pop up shower or two. Gusty winds will develop Friday
night into Saturday morning as well with the strongest winds
expected around the Poconos with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible.
Highs Saturday are expected to be in the upper 50s to the mid
60s. The Wyoming and Delaware River Valleys in NE PA will fare a
little better with temperatures approaching 70 degrees. Lows
Saturday night will be in the 40s areawide, and some upper 30s
can`t be ruled out in the typical colder valley locations.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Sunday through Tuesday of next week we start to see some
variations in the upper levels with regards to placement and
strength of waves of energy and upper lows around the region.
Deterministic and ensemble model guidance is in support of the
cool north to northwest flow continuing with near to below
average temperatures Sunday through Tuesday in the 60s and low
70s. While there is no real good source of moisture over the
area early next week, with low heights, the cool temperatures
aloft and occasional increases in wrap around moisture off of
the Atlantic, some isolated to scattered showers are expected.
The first upper disturbance is expected to move through the area
Sunday night and Monday with scattered showers, and the next
upper level low could swing through sometime Tuesday/Tuesday
night with more showers possible (again, with some uncertainty
in timing). The upper level pattern finally starts to shift away
from the Omega block (with troughing over the Northeast) by the
middle to end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the 06z TAF period, with
exception to ITH and ELM, who could see some brief MVFR cigs
as a cluster of rain showers and drizzle moves through between
14Z and 16Z.

With higher confidence that the winds overnight at ELM will be
higher and the dew points dropping off over the last couple of
hours, the chance of fog has largely disappeared.

Outlook:
Thursday afternoon through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday Night and Saturday...Chance for scattered showers and
associated restrictions.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR; potential for afternoon showers
that could cause restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DK/MJM
AVIATION...KL