Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

144
FXUS61 KBGM 060622
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
222 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update. The forecast
remains on track, and flood watches were left in place. PoPs and
rainfall amounts were adjusted based on the latest radar trends and
model data. Higher confidence in Wednesday being dry now.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and embedded pop up thunderstorms will continue to
develop over the region today in a very moist and somewhat unstable
air mass. Flood watches remain in effect for most of the NY southern
tier, Catskills and all of NE PA.

2) Low amplitude weak upper level trough remains in place Tuesday
before exiting the region on Wednesday. This will bring partly sunny
conditions, with chances for a few pop up showers or t`storms
Tuesday, then dry and seasonable weather on Wednesday.

3) The next trough and front is progged to slowly move through the
area Thursday into Friday. This will bring increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms along with more warm and humid conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A stalled stationary frontal boundary is the focal point for
developing showers and thunderstorms across NE PA and the NY
southern tier early this morning. Radar estimates and rain gauge
reports show that localized amounts have been 2-5 inches across
portions of Luzerne, Lackawanna, Pike and Sullivan (NY) counties.
Numerous flash flood warnings were issued and some remain in place.
Please check official NWS sources for the latest warning information.

The latest CAMs, such as the 04z HRRR show showers and embedded
t`storm pivoting and rotating over areas south and east of
Binghamton through sunrise, before finally shifting slowing east
into southern New England. Still additional pop up, slow moving
heavy showers or perhaps t`storms are progged to occasionally
develop along the NY/PA into the mid-morning hours. However, it
appears most areas will indeed see a break in the steady/heavy
rainfall from about 6 AM to Noon. Then, heading into the afternoon
hours some modest daytime heating and instability will allow
additional showers and storms to develop with an incoming shortwave.
Storm motion vectors still show very slow movement, with showers and
t`storms likely to drift at less than 10 mph this afternoon. PWATS
remain very high, between 1.8 to 2 inches over NE PA and the
southern tier region. Warm cloud layer depths are also progged to be
around 11-12k ft agl. So these parameters are still supportive of
very efficient warm rain processes. Additional rainfall amounts are
forecast to be between a half inch to 1.5 inches in and around the
flood watch zones through early Tuesday morning; with perhaps still
a few very localized higher totals where showers/storms stall.

The positive note is that overall instability levels looks
much lower than what we had in place Sunday evening; with MLCAPE
values less than 200 J/kg expected due to a cooler maritime air mass
advecting in on the east wind (creating CIN). Will leave the flood
watches in place at this time, but overall the flood threat for this
afternoon and evening is trending down in the latest model guidance.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The upper level trough never really leaves the area entirely heading
into Tuesday and this setup will keep at least a chance for at least
isolated to scattered showers and t`storms in the forecast, along
with mostly cloudy skies. With all the clouds and scattered showers
around, it stays on the cooler side as highs only reach into the 70s
once again. There could be a few more breaks of afternoon sun up
toward the I-90 corridor, Mohawk Valley and Syracuse metro area;
this allows for highs near 80 here.

By Wednesday, the latest ensemble forecast guidance continues to
show  dry conditions as weak high pressure builds overhead. Skies
are also expected to become partly to mostly sunny and high
temperatures warm up into the 80s areawide with moderate humidity
levels forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Thursday is forecast to be the warmest day of the upcoming week and
dry for the first half of the day. The area will be under a zonal
flow pattern, however there is potential that a cold front pushes
into western NY late in the day, bringing the chance for a few
showers and thunderstorms. Depending on the exact timing, this front
could bring strong to severe thunderstorms if it comes in during the
peak heating hours of the afternoon, but some ensemble guidance has
this front not passing until early Friday morning. Highs on Thursday
reach well into the 80s with a few valley locations in the low 90s.
With dew points in the mid to upper 60s there will be plenty of
atmospheric instability around.

Most of the guidance is starting to agree on the main frontal
passage being sometime on Friday. This will likely bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms. Exact timing of the rain and
convection remains uncertain this far out in time. There should be
at least some dry time and breaks of sun, as guidance is showing
temperatures in the low to mid-80s. Looking ahead to the weekend;
overall it is shaping up to be mainly dry and seasonable. NBM
ensemble guidance shows the possibility for a few showers or lingering
t`storms Saturday, then generally dry on Sunday. Highs in the
upper 70s to mid-80s each day with lows in the mid-50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

RME and SYR is expected to remain VFR through the overnight and
early morning hours. MVFR CIGs then potentially reach these two
TAF sites by mid to late morning, with some scattered showers
around...especially at SYR. CIGs are then forecast to come back
up to lower end VFR by the mid to late afternoon hours.

Steady rain is expected to continue into the morning, mainly
affecting the NY Southern Tier and NE PA. Cigs will get to IFR
at BGM, but lower confidence at AVP and ELM. IFR CIGs then
linger at BGM through the morning hours.

Today will feature generally MVFR to IFR CIGs for ITH, ELM, BGM and
AVP with on and off showers expected; the rain could occasionally
heavy at times with reduced visibility.

Outlook:

Monday night...Restrictions continue due to rain and fog/mist
in the area. IFR likely at BGM and possible at ITH, ELM and AVP.
SYR and RME mainly VFR until very late at night.

Tuesday...Lingering rain showers in the morning with MVFR
conditions, trending towards VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR; High pressure building
in, morning fog likely, mainly at ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
     048-072.
NY...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NYZ024-055>057-062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...MJM