Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

024
FXUS61 KBGM 191817
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
217 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor adjustments to bring the light rain in a few hours earlier
late this evening and tonight. Temperatures were bumped up a few
degrees Sunday, although it will remain cloudy and showery all day.
Minor adjustments to expected rainfall totals through Sunday
evening, mainly a slight lowering. Fog was removed from most
locations Sunday night and Monday morning as the dry, steady
northerly flow develops. Latest model guidance is trending drier for
most of next week, although some uncertainty on the northern extent
of clouds and/or rain showers still exists, especially Monday night
into Tuesday and again toward Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) A low pressure system will bring a period of steady rain and
showers to the area tonight through Sunday. Rainfall amounts between
a half inch to one and three quarters inch are expected.

2) The weather pattern is trending drier, with cooler, fall
temperatures for much of next week. A stalled front and later a
stronger low off the East Coast could keep shower chances nearby.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mid and high level clouds will continue to overspread the area
heading into the evening hours. Low level dry air is in place, with
dew points in the 40s around the region. Initially any radar returns
will likely be virga (not reaching the ground) but after sunset some
sprinkles and light showers will begin to spread in from the west.

The steadier rainfall looks to develop after midnight and overspread
the forecast area during the predawn hours Sunday morning. Rainfall
amounts by daybreak are expected to range from a quarter to half inch
across Central NY and NE PA. The surface low center is forecast to
track across New York state through the day on Sunday. Most of the
surface based instability is progged to stay south of our area,
across south-central PA. With that said, there could be a few
elevated thunderstorms mainly during the day on Sunday; especially
from the Twin Tiers south into NE PA. There remains discrepancies in
the latest CAMs on exactly when and where the steadiest rainfall
will develop. There appears to be 2-3 rounds of rain tonight through
early Sunday evening , with some minor breaks of just drizzle and
light showers in between. PWATs are elevated between 1.5 to 1.8
inches during this rainfall event, but as mentioned above
instability looks very limited. This should keep rainfall rates
down, to generally just a steady rainfall...with only a very low,
marginal risk for any localized excessive rainfall. This potential
is mainly confined to NE PA and the Twin Tiers, closer to the modest
instability over south-central PA. Overall rainfall totals are
forecast to be between 0.50 to 1.75 inches by the time the rain ends
Sunday evening.

With the clouds overspreading the area tonight it will remain mild,
with lows mainly in the 50s expected. Southeast winds increase
between 7-15 mph with a few higher gusts possible overnight and into
Sunday morning. The center of the low passes along or just south of
I-90 in Central NY on Sunday. Winds will become variable as the low
passes overhead, then turn northwest and increase late in the day.
Just ahead of the low our area will get into a quasi-warm sector,
and with dew points pushing up into the 60s it will become slightly
humid. Despite overcast conditions (and rain showers) all day it
does look like the warm/moist air advection will push high
temperature up into the 60s across the region.

Behind the departing low, winds turn northerly overnight and
gradually diminish. A very dry air mass will advect into the area
from Canada late Sunday night into Monday. While there could be some
patchy fog, it will most likely dissipate as drier air mixes down
toward the surface. PWATs fall to under 0.50 inches for CNY by
Monday morning, but could remain elevated near 1.25 inches in the
Wyoming Valley. Overnight lows will be quite cool, dropping into the
40s to low 50s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Drier air continues to advect into the area from the north (from
700mb down to the surface) through the day on Monday. However, the
next shortwave will roll east along the stalled front from western
PA to Central PA by late Monday. This may begin to push some
additional moisture north as surface winds try to come around out of
the east-northeast across the Poconos. The most likely scenario is
that any rain remains south of I-80 in PA though. Clouds will be
thickest and most widespread over NE PA, fading to mainly sunny
conditions north along the I-90 corridor of CNY. Expect a steady
northeast wind between 6 to 15 mph with a few gusts around 20 mph
through the day. Temperatures will be seasonable in the 60s for highs.

The most uncertainty in the medium range forecast comes Monday night
into Tuesday. The aforementioned mid level wave moves slowly east
across PA and the northern Mid-Atlantic in this time period. Model
differences remain in regards to the northern extent of deeper mid
level moisture and potential rain. The 12z GFS remains further north
and would spread steady rain across all of NE and CNY north to the
US Route 20 corridor...and it doesn`t shift the rain south until
Tuesday evening. Meanwhile the 12z NAM brings scattered showers
north to the NY/PA border area Tuesday morning, but keeps it dry
further north. The ECMWF is similar to, if not slightly further
south than the NAM. There will be big forecast implications
depending on where this rainfall sets up; as the cool easterly flow
in the low levels could lock in and keep temperatures very cool
(upper 40s to mid-50s) where the rain does setup. Meanwhile to the
north and east of the rain it would be partly sunny and milder with
temperatures in the low to mid-60s. Considering the high amount of
spread and uncertainty in the guidance, the official forecast used
the blended ensemble guidance, which brings a few showers southern
and western portions of the area... and allows temperatures to reach
the upper 50s to mid-60s for highs.

The complex weather setup continues for mid to late week as the
expansive high pressure sets up over New England and a surface low
begins to take shape off the Mid-Atlantic coast. For our area, it is
beginning to look like the drier air will win out, under the
northeasterly flow. Wednesday and Thursday look partly sunny and a
bit cool with highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Overnight lows will
be in the low to mid 40s each night.

By Friday, uncertainty in the low track along the southern New
England coast exists in the latest model guidance. As the low become
vertically stacked it may stall and meander around. There is a low
chance a few showers could rotate in from the east. Otherwise,
partly cloudy and seasonably cool conditions continue through the
end of the upcoming workweek. It will be a high amplitude narrow
wavelength upper level pattern, so again, a lot of uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Remaining VFR into this evening with lowering and thickening mid
level clouds overspreading the area. MVFR CIGs and visibility develop
by 04-08z as light rain develops and spreads east. IFR to perhaps
occasional LIFR conditions then develop for most locations early
Sunday morning and continue right through the end of this 18z TAF
period. The highest probability for LIFR restrictions (CIGs) will be
at BGM after about 13z Sunday. ITH and RME could also be close to
LIFR at times Sunday morning. With the east-southeast winds the
current thinking is that AVP, ELM and SYR will mainly see CIGs just
below 1000 ft agl most of the time. Periods of rain continue through
all of Sunday morning and early afternoon. MVFR visibilities are
likely in the rainfall.

East-Southeast winds between 6-15 kts develop overnight and into the
day on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Afternoon and Evening... Rain expected for much of the
period. Periods of IFR restrictions likely.

Sunday Night...Lingering restrictions as the rain moves out and
skies gradually partially clear from NW to SE.

Monday...Mainly VFR expected

Monday Night and Tuesday...Possible restrictions with showers,
especially NE PA and perhaps the NY Southern Tier terminals.

Wednesday and Thursday...Likely VFR most of the time.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...MPK/MJM