Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

789
FXUS61 KBGM 101047
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
647 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Made minor adjustments to cloud cover, wind gusts and chances of
precipitation today. Added in area of frost tonight, where it
clears out and temperatures drop into the low or mid 30s.
Widespread frost and some freeze conditions are expected Monday
night into Tuesday morning, as temperatures were lowered by a
few degrees in this update. Isolated showers were added to the
forecast Monday afternoon as the area destabilizes under the
upper level trough.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain showers will be mainly ending early this morning, but
breezy west-northwest winds are expected this afternoon. A few
isolated showers or perhaps a stray thunderstorm cannot be rule
out for portions of Northeast PA or the southern Catskills of
New York this afternoon.

2) A cold air mass will combine with surface ridging, diminishing
winds and clearing skies to bring the potential for frost tonight
into Monday morning. Even colder temperatures are expected under a
large high pressure center Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
A widespread frost and possible freeze event is expected.

3) A few isolated showers will be possible on Monday as a weak
shortwave rotates through the area under a large upper level trough.
Otherwise, the weather is looking mainly dry and mostly sunny Monday
into Tuesday.

4) Wet, cool and unsettled weather looks to return mid to late week
as the next slow moving upper level low and associated surface wave
moves through the are Tuesday night through Thursday or Friday. Then
drying out and warming up next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak frontal boundary will stall over NE PA this morning and
linger through the day. There could be some scattered showers
lingering in the early to mid morning hours for portions of Central
NY, mainly east of I-81 and down into NE PA. As another weak
shortwave approaches it may reignites some isolated showers or a
stray thunderstorm this afternoon across NE PA or the southern
Catskills. There is very limited moisture, instability, only around
200 J/kg of MLCAPE, with LIs around -1. Overall, skies are forecast
to clear and become mostly sunny over most of Central NY this
afternoon and evening. With the increasing sunshine, temperatures
will moderate, reaching the upper 50s to mid-60s across our CNY
zones, with 60s to low 70s expected in NE PA. Breezy west-northwest
winds are expected, and wind gusts were increased in the forecast to
be more in line with the latest LAV guidance; this gave sustained
winds of 7-15 mph, with gusts 20 to 25 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Drier air and weak high pressure slides into the area tonight. Winds
should diminish quickly after sunset, decoupling and dropping to
under 5 mph overnight. Skies look to remain mainly clear over most
of Central NY, with an increase in mid to high level clouds in NE PA
after midnight. As temperatures drop into the 30s areas of frost are
certainly possible across most of our CNY counties. Will hold off on
issuing any frost advisories at this time, and let the next shift
take a look at one more round of updated guidance to increase
confidence on exactly where will see the best chance at frost.

Monday night will be the coldest night of the week, with a 1025mb
surface high firmly entrenched over the region. Skies will be clear
and winds light once again. Blended in some of the colder guidance
to bring lows down a bit from the deterministic NBM guidance.
Expecting lows well down into the 30s areawide, with widespread frost
and even some freeze potential. If confidence continues to grow that
this scenario will indeed play out, freeze watches and/or frost advisories
would be needed for portions, if not all of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Monday will feature partly sunny conditions and mainly dry weather.
However, the latest guidance is showing that a weak mid level
shortwave will drop through the area in the afternoon. This wave
will bring a slight increase in moisture with it, along with
increasing instability associated with the cold air aloft (and
modest daytime heating at the surface). With this in mind, decided
to go above the NBM, and bring in the potential for isolated pop up
showers as this feature drops NW to SE across the area. Any showers
should be light and brief in nature. With 850mb temperatures
around -1C in the afternoon, it will be another cool and breezy
day, with highs only reaching into the 50s (except low 60s
Wyoming Valley). Tuesday will feature mostly sunny and dry (but
still cool) weather under a large surface high pressure system.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

The next upper level trough/low begins to drop toward the region
from the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models are in
good agreement, lending to higher confidence, that periods of rain
will develop later Tuesday night, continue all day Wednesday,
Wednesday night and into Thursday as the slow moving upper level
feature traverses our area. Temperatures will remain cool under the
upper trough, held down by all the clouds and rain as well. Look for
overnight lows in the 40s, Tuesday through Thursday night and
daytime highs only in the 50s to low 60s once again. It is a little
early to pin down forecast rainfall amounts, but probabilities for
greater than a half inch are increasing. It finally looks to
gradually dry out and warm up heading into next weekend, and perhaps
the following week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We are in a post-frontal environment featuring ceilings mostly
in the 2-4 kft range this morning. KAVP is already VFR prior to
12Z, and all other terminals will improve to join them as drier
air overtakes the region midday through evening, via west-
northwest winds that will occasionally gust into the teens knots
range, even to 20 knots or so for KRME-KSYR. Winds slacken
quickly to light/variable this evening. Though there is some
uncertainty since there may be some high thin clouds overnight,
conditions overall look somewhat favorable for shallow valley
fog at KELM towards dawn considering recent rainfall and ongoing
greenup underway which may contribute moisture.

Outlook:

Monday through Tuesday evening...VFR, except shallow valley fog
again possible towards dawn Tuesday at KELM.

Late Tuesday night through Thursday...Showers likely with
associated restrictions as low pressure pivots into the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...MDP