Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

871
FXUS61 KBGM 082332
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
632 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slight adjustments in chance of precipitation for lake effect
rain showers tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler and wetter weather pattern this weekend into early
next week.

2) Watching the potential for a stronger low or noreaster to
potentially form late this week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level trough is moving off to the east today with a
shortwave dropping in out of the north tonight into tomorrow.
With colder air moving in at 850 mb and warm lakes, lake effect
rain showers develop. The best chance for heavier rain showers
is in CNY but there will be enough moisture and forcing that
much of the region will at least see a few sprinkles with the
shortwave passage tomorrow. Temperatures will be briefly cooler
tomorrow before warming up Tuesday as warm air advection
develops ahead of a deepening trough in the central US that will
bring us more unsettled weather later this week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The potential for a Miller B noreaster is increasing as models
are coming into better agreement with the northern and southern
500 mb shortwaves phasing somewhere in the Ohio or Mississippi
river valleys. While the confidence in a stronger surface low
has increased, the track is still uncertain with a large spread
of surface low locations Friday afternoon, ranging from western
NY all the way too well off the Mid Atlantic coast. Most
ensemble members at this point do have at least some
precipitation moving through our area with an ensemble mean near
a half inch of QPF, with the 90th percentile around an inch to
inch and a half. The caveat is that the cold airmass being
ingested into the storm from the north is slowly warming with
each progressing model suits. This is not too surprising as
there is not much snow cover yet to the north so models are
likely overdoing the available cold air. While the confidence in
a stronger surface low has increased with a good soaking
forecasted, the odds of a widespread heavier snow event has
decreased. There will still be enough cold air on the backside
of the low so Friday night into Saturday may see a transition to
some wet, slushy snow. Accumulations likely will be light and
with a warm ground and air temps just around freezing, snow may
melt as fast as it is falling and limited to elevations above
1000 feet.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR to MVFR conditions are expected this evening at most
terminals as showers and lower ceilings return from north to
south starting around 06Z. These restrictions are expected
mainly at NY terminals for much of the time through 16Z. AVP is
expected to remain VFR through the TAF period, but some lower
ceilings may try to approach during the mid-to-late morning
hours early tomorrow morning.

Showers overnight and into tomorrow morning may be heavy enough
for some brief IFR visby restrictions, but confidence wasn`t
high enough to include at this time. Winds turn more
northwesterly tomorrow and remains gusty.


Outlook...

Monday afternoon...Isolated showers and lingering ceiling
restrictions possible, mainly around RME and SYR.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with low chance for
showers at RME.

Thursday...Showers and associated restrictions possible.

Friday...A mix of rain/snow showers possible and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MWG
AVIATION...DK/ES