Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

720
FXUS61 KBGM 161132
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
632 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies and seasonably cold weather
is expected around the region for today. Then, a gradual warm
up is in the forecast heading into Wednesday, with above
freezing temperatures by the afternoon. A strong frontal system
passes through Thursday night into Friday. This will bring a
period of soaking rainfall, mixing with and ending as some lake
effect snow showers, along with gusty winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
530 AM Update:

Latest satellite observations shows low stratus continuing to
be firmly anchored across much of the area, with the exception
being across the far southern portion of the area (Luzerne
County). Model guidance and particularly the NBM is handling
this very poorly. With this update, after coordinating with
WFOs ALY and BUF, we significantly increased forecast sky cover
for the remainder of this morning into the afternoon. Currently
maintaining the forecast that eventually the clouds will scatter
out and result in at least partly sunny skies this afternoon,
but there is a possibility that parts of Central NY may not see
this happen until very late in the day or perhaps not at all.

Another impact of the extensive cloud cover early this morning
is that temperatures are several degrees warmer than previously
expected. With the clouds not going anywhere for at least the
next several hours, temperatures prior to sunrise will not fall
much more than where they currently are. Therefore also made
significant adjustments to temperatures for this morning.

Previous Discussion:

Quiet and seasonably cold weather is expected today around the area.
Starting off quite cold early this morning, with clouds scattering
for some sunshine through the day. Weak high pressure will keep the
entire forecast area dry today, with any lake effect showers
shifting north of the area, as low level winds back out of the south
up to 10 mph. Mostly clear and not as cold tonight as south winds
increase up to 15 mph overnight. A weak cold front sweeps through
the northern portion of the forecast area Wednesday morning,
dropping 850mb temperatures back down to around -5C briefing in the
afternoon. Some light wintry mix showers of sleet pellets, snow
showers and a patchy mixture light rain or freezing rain will be
around Wednesday morning to early afternoon; mainly along and north
of I-90 in CNY. QPF amounts are very light from the this system,
under five-hundreths of an inch. Will monitor this weak weather
system to see if there could be just enough coverage of mixed precip
for any impacts over our far northern counties. Otherwise, Wednesday
features mostly cloudy to overcast conditions but milder
temperatures in the mid-30s to lower 40s for highs. Southwest winds
increase to between 10-20 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
This will be a very active weather period, as a strong frontal
system passes through the area.

Wednesday night features brief surface high pressure sliding by just
to our south over the Mid-Atlantic states. This will bring partly
cloudy to mostly clear sky conditions overnight and dry weather.
Winds decrease to under 10 mph and overnight lows dip down into the
upper 10s to mid-20s over the region.

Thursday will feature a mix of sun and clouds through the day, with
some increase in the cloud cover likely by the afternoon hours over
most of Central NY and NE PA. Can`t rule out a late day shower heading
toward sunset, as southerly winds really ramp up out ahead of
the incoming front and sub-990mb low pressure center. South winds
reach 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph by Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures should surge to well above average levels in the
afternoon, likely reaching the low to mid-40s before sunset.

Thursday night will see a period of steady rain arrive, with amounts
up to around or just over 1 inch expected. 01z NBM probabilities
for 1 inch or greater of rainfall are between about 30-60 percent
along and east of I-81, with lower probabilities (generally
less than 25%) further west in our forecast area. Breezy to
windy south winds continue at 15-30 mph, and a few higher gusts.
These surface winds are being supported by a low level jet up
to 75 kts at the 850mb level overnight. The initial cold front
may enter western parts of the forecast area during the predawn
hours early Friday morning; with a squall line possible along
it. The rain could start to mix with some wet snow over the
higher elevations of Steuben/Yates counties after about 4 AM EST
Friday morning, as temperatures fall quickly into the mid-30s.
Meanwhile, areas further east should see rising temperatures
overnight, reaching well into the 40s, along with warm dew
points in the 40s as well. This will accelerate snow melt
overnight, due to the warm temperatures and steady rainfall. Up
to about 2 inches of snow water equivalent exists within the
very cold snow pack over the area (localized 2-4" SWE over lake
effect areas and southern Tug Hill of Oneida county). It remains
to be seen just how much of this Snow/SWE ends up melting out
from this thaw and rain event.

By Friday morning, the sharp cold front will be racing east across
the area, bringing falling temperatures through the day. Will need
to watch for things freezing back up, either during the day or as
the sunsets; exact refreeze timing remains uncertain this far out.
Winds turn west-northwest and are quite windy. 850mb winds ramp back
up between 45-55 kts especially Friday evening and night. This
supports wind gust close to advisory criteria (40-45 mph) in the
boundary layer, at least for parts of the area. This wind
potential will be closely monitor, for trends in the model
guidance as we move through the next few days.

Otherwise, the steady rain early in the day, changes to a mix of
lingering rain and snow showers, then eventually scattered snow
showers by Friday afternoon as 850mb temperatures reach -10C by
sunset. There could be some minor snow accumulations, especially for
north-central NY into the NY Thruway corridor as some lake
enhancement develops. Blowing snow is a good bet Friday night over
the northern Susquehanna and Mohawk Valley, with the strong winds
noted above combining with lingering lake effect snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lingering lake effect snow is expected to rapidly diminish
Saturday morning as a weak surface high briefly builds in from
the south. The next warm frontal clipper system will race into
the area later in the day, bringing a chance for light snow/snow
showers over the northern half of our CWA. The clipper low
passed by to the north Saturday night, with another cold front
pushing in from the NW heading into Sunday. This will keep
scattered snow showers in the forecast along with seasonably
cold and blustery conditions. Turning colder Sunday night and
Monday behind the front, with a few lingering snow showers
possible. Highly fluctuating temperatures are possible heading
into early next week, with quick moving frontal systems looking
to pass north or over the area. This type of pattern would
bring some light snow to the area, with brief warm ups as winds
turn southerly, then quick cool downs as winds veer northwesterly
behind the fast moving shortwave systems.

Looking at 250 mb mean winds into the weekend and early
next week, flow becomes fairly zonal with the jet stream
centered over NY and PA. That means the flow will be fast, with
frequent shortwaves leading to unpredictability this far out.
The long term also is not looking as cold as the lowest
temperature anomalies retreat into the NW territories and Alaska
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A persistent deck of low clouds remains in place across the
area, resulting in MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions
at most of the Central NY terminals this morning. These clouds
are expected to slowly dissipate by late this morning or early this
afternoon, which should bring a return to VFR conditions. KAVP
and KRME likely remain VFR throughout the period, even this
morning.

Weak LLWS is expected to develop at all terminals after 03Z
Wednesday or so, becoming a bit stronger and more widespread
after 06Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR ceilings possible across portions of Central
NY.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Friday...Strong frontal passage with
rain showers, possibly mixing with or ending as snow showers
along with associated restrictions. LLWS likely Thursday into
Thursday night.

Saturday...Scattered snow showers possible across Central NY
with occasional restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MJM
NEAR TERM...BJG/MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BJG