Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KBGM 081026
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
626 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were made with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another round of showers and storms will move through today.
There is potential for a few storms to have gusty winds and heavy
rain.

 2) After a quiet end to the weekend, the pattern becomes active
with off-and-on showers and cooling temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Lingering showers and storms will continue to move through the
region early this morning. As they exit the region, a shortwave
approaches the region. This shortwave will support another round of
showers and thunderstorms today, mainly this afternoon and evening.
Models are showing anywhere from 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE this
afternoon, though shear will be weak ranging from 20 to 30 kts. Mid-
level lapse rates will generally be low across the region though
there will be some pockets of modest values. While these values are
not too impressive, there will likely be enough of these ingredients
to support a few stronger storms today. The greatest hazard would be
strong winds, given the higher DCAPE values seen in forecast
soundings and slightly stronger flow above the surface that could
mix down. Instability extends into the hail growth zone as well, so
small hail may be possible. As of now, the greatest potential for
strong to severe storms is over the Wyoming Valley and areas south
of the region. If some clearing can take place, then areas further
north could also see isolated stronger storms.

Looking at moisture for today, PWATs will be 1.5 to 1.75 inches.
While not particularly high, there is potential for quasi-stationary
storm motions. Given this, locally heavy rainfall will be possible
and could lead to localized flash flooding. Areas that were hit
hardest yesterday would be more sensitive to higher rainfall
amounts.

When it is not raining, it will be warm and humid. Temperatures will
max out in the 80s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. Heat
index values will be around or exceed 90 in the valleys, but
stay below heat advisory criteria.

Overnight, a weak cold front will begin to pass through. This may
support a few additional rain showers, but these will be lighter.
With the added moisture and winds calming, fog will develop,
especially in the valleys. Temperatures stay fairly mild, only
dropping into the 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

While there will not be much of a cool down on tomorrow, drier air
moves in and significantly decreases the humidity. Surface high
pressure will bring a quiet end to the weekend. Monday will also
start out dry but rain is quick to move in with the next
disturbance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday
afternoon and evening. There will be enhanced mid-level flow, which
equates to higher shear. The low level flow will also be
stronger than seen this weekend. There is still some uncertainty
on how much instability will develop. PWATs will be enhanced
with values of at least 1.75 inches. While there are still
uncertainties if all ingredients come together, Monday will be
the next day to monitor for the potential for strong storms and
heavy rainfall.

The general pattern will keep a broad trough over the region the
rest of the week. Multiple shortwaves will move through during this
time and support off-and-on scattered showers Tuesday through
Thursday. During this stretch, moisture may become limited on
Wednesday, so there will be potential for a brief dry period for
most, if not all of the region. One more system looks to push
through near the end of the week before high pressure returns just
before the weekend.

After a warm start, temperatures will trend cooler throughout
the week and be closer to or even slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fog will continue for the first hour or so of the 12z TAF
period. Afterwards, additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected again Saturday afternoon. There is
less confidence with timing of storms today, but the mention of
rain showers was included.

Outlook:

Saturday night through Wednesday...A few lingering showers/storms
for Saturday night with brief restrictions possible. Mainly dry
Sunday through Monday morning, with VFR conditions expected. Monday
afternoon through Wednesday, unsettled with repeating times of
showers and scattered thunderstorms and associated restrictions.
Overnight fog/mist restrictions are also possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL/JTC
AVIATION...KL