Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

205
FXUS61 KBGM 230512
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
112 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little change made to previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong high pressure in place through the end of the week
with temperatures at to slightly below normal.

2) Still watching how far east the weekend noreaster may get.
Best chances for impacts remain east of the region but breezy
conditions and some light rain is still possible.

3) High pressure builds back in late this weekend into early
next week with southwest flow bringing in gradually warmer air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A continental polar airmass along with a strong surface high is
in place today into Friday with cool 850 mb temperatures and
dry Northeast flow aloft. Conditions the next few nights are
favorable for radiational cooling so depending on how much the
boundary layer dries out today and tomorrow afternoon of how
much high clouds overspread the region from the developing
coastal low will dictate frost potential. Northern Oneida has
the best chance at frost as dry air is already in place around
the Tug Hill and it will be hard for any high clouds to get that
far north. For CNY into the Twin Tiers of NY and PA, dew points
will have to mix down to the high 30s and skies remain clear
all night to give a chance at some patchy frost in deeper,
elevated valleys. If the dew points remain in the 40s, then fog
development would be more likely preventing a frost. Given that
the frost in Northern Oneida looks spotty at best as
temperatures likely remain at or just above freezing in coldest
locations, no frost headline has been put out yet at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Heading into this weekend, a strong early season noreaster
forms off the east coast of the US and approaches the Northeast.
There is still uncertainty in its exact track as there is not a
whole lot of strong steering yet with a relatively weak jet
stream. With the strong surface high in place currently, it will
be tough for the storm to work its way into it much so
confidence is at least greater for the bulk of the precipitation
and wind to remain east. Ensemble low pressure low tracks still
bring quite a few members (~20%) well west into PA and NJ.
Those tracks would bring heavier rain and wind through the
weekend but those remain outliers at this time.

Clouds will still wrap in behind the low into our area so we
will at least see cloudy skies and an increase in the winds. The
Catskill could get some rain with sprinkles and occasional
light rain farther west.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Once the noreaster weakens and moves out to sea early next
week, upper level ridging builds back in with SW flow aloft.
This will help lead to a gradual warming period with
temperatures returning to normal to slightly above normal.
Chances of rain look low early next week as well given dry air
advecting in from the central US under the building ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure
overhead. There is a low chance for brief fog to develop at ELM
early this morning, but confidence is too low to include in the
forecast at this time.

Outlook...

Thursday Through Friday...Mainly VFR; potential for patching
fog and IFR restrictions in early morning hours.

Friday Night through Sunday...Mostly VFR with a low chance for
showers east of I81 corridor.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MJM
AVIATION...BJT/ES/MPK