Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

696
FXUS61 KBGM 270609
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
209 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes made to the overall forecast at this time.
Severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding is still
possible for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms will track across the area today
into tonight. There remains potential for some storms to be
severe, with damaging wind gusts, large hail and possibly an
isolated weak tornado. Also, heavy downpours are expected and
localized flash flooding will be possible.

2) Mainly dry weather expected Friday through the weekend as
high pressure crosses the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Still quite a bit of uncertainty with the forecast today.
Lingering morning showers as a warm front tracks across the area
may limit instability for early this afternoon as a prefrontal
trough pushes in from the west. If the warm front can get
through the area, then this will allow for some clearing skies
within the warm sector and the longer the break between morning
showers and afternoon storms will maximize instability. Forecast
soundings are still indicating potential for CAPE of 1500+
J/kg, 30 - 35 KT of 0-6km bulk shear and PWATs increasing above
1.5". Also, short Corfidi vectors indicate potential for
training thunderstorms and localized flash flooding may become
a concern late afternoon into this evening, especially across
the southern Catskills.

The main show this afternoon will be with the forcing from the
prefrontal trough, as latest CAMs show showers and thunderstorms
developing around mid afternoon and moving across the area
through early this evening. The cold front will not push through
the region until early Friday morning and it likely won`t
produce much shower or storm activity as it passes. As far as
severe thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening, there will
be plenty shear, but the question will be how much instability
will develop before storms kick off this afternoon. Also, with
little to no CIN in place to hold initiation off until a little
later in the afternoon will further hinder stronger instability
from developing.

Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, but can`t rule
isolated large hail and an isolated weak tornado. A Slight Risk
is still in place from SPC for all but the far western portion
of the BGM forecast area, where a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms is in place.

Also, a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for the
entire area from WPC. A Slight Risk is in place across the
southeastern portion of the forecast area where training of
cells appears more likely as well as slightly higher PWAT
values.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure crosses the region Friday into the weekend. This
will bring mostly dry and quiet weather. The only caveat to this
is the upper trough axis remains overhead on Friday and diurnal
heating could produce a few quick passing showers.

Temperatures will cool a few degrees on Friday and Saturday,
but warmer temperatures and increasing humidity will return for
Sunday. Finally, with recent rainfall and Friday and Saturday
nights expected to be clear, cool and calm, the ingredients will
be ripe for river valley fog across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances of showers were removed at AVP as rain has not developed
ahead of the main front. There are still some clouds developing
that have some vertical extent but far more isolated so
confidence of AVP being impacted enough to go MVFR is low. ELM
has a good chance at fog but with the front moving in, wind may
help clear it at times so a tempo was left instead of
predominant. All other terminals are expected to be VFR through
the rest of the morning.

This afternoon, showers and thunderstorms form across the region
with prob30s used for best estimated timing with little change
from previous forecast.

Outlook...

Thursday Night through Friday Morning...Potential restrictions
with lingering showers

Friday Night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday... Restrictions possible as a low pressure system moves
north of the region; mainly at SYR and RME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPK/SJW
AVIATION...AJG/BTL