Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

986
FXUS61 KBGM 182358
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
758 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled. The severe
threat has ended from this event. A few heavier rain showers and
rumbles of thunder will still be possible into the evening
hours.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Smoke across the region today gets swept out of the area tonight.

2) There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
with damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes this afternoon and
early evening across the entire forecast area.

3) Pleasant, dry and mostly sunny weather looks to return for Sunday
and Monday across the area. Cool and refreshing overnight lows.

4) Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday and Wednesday as
the next frontal system pushes east into Central NY and Northeast PA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Latest runs of the HRRR model smoke guidance show high
concentrations of near-surface smoke currently in place. Smoke
appears as though it will linger well into the afternoon hours
before a cold front sweeps through the region this evening into
tonight. Disruption of the airmass due to showers and frontal
passages should keep the smoke a little thinner than previous days.
Air Quality Alerts remain in effect for Central NY through this
evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The initial warm front has pushed through the area this morning and
early afternoon with the first round of showers and elevated
thunderstorms. Partial clearing will now take place into the
afternoon hours, along with dew points surging into the lower or
mid 70s and temperatures reaching the upper 70s and 80s for
highs. This set up will allow surface base CAPE to rise between
1500-3000 J/kg over the region, with the highest values expected
over the Central Southern Tier and Wyoming Valley region by mid
to late afternoon. Effective layer shear will be pushing
40-55kts over the entire forecast area by late afternoon as
well, creating a favorable environment for super cell
development and potential bowing segments. A corridor of DCAPE
values above 800 J/kg is also expected to develop just ahead of
the incoming storms, so this will set the stage for potential
damaging winds and microbursts as storms strengthen. 0-1 km bulk
shear is also increase, upwards of 30 kts, and SRH values are
up to 300 m2/s2 along the warm front. With low LCLs between
500-750m we cannot rule out an isolated tornado or two this
afternoon, either out ahead of the line of storms or embedded
within any line segments as they develop and move east-
southeast. The timing looks to be mainly between 2PM to 8 PM for
the area, starting up across the Finger Lakes, then pushing
into the I-81 Twin Tiers by late afternoon and Northeast
PA/Wyoming Valley mainly 4-8 PM. SPC has maintained the
Enhanced, level 3 of 5, risk across our entire forecast area
today.

The storms look to drop south and east, out of the area by 8-9 PM as
the cold front passes through. After that, the flow turns north-
northwest and a few upslope showers/clouds develop over Central NY
overnight into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Lingering gust NW flow Sunday, between 10-20 mph may keep some
stratus or strato-cu broken clouds around Sunday morning. As high
pressure builds in from the west, it will become mostly sunny and
pleasant Sunday afternoon. Humidity will be much lower, with dew
points in the low to mid-50s and high temperatures in the upper 60s
to mid 70s expected. Sunday night a 1017mb surface high moves
directly overhead. This will bring clear skies, light winds and
allow temperatures to drop between 45-55F overnight. Widespread
valley fog is likely to form over the region as well, especially
near rivers and creeks. The HRRR keeps the smoke away from our area
despite the NW flow on Sunday, and the light overall flow Monday.
Therefore, Monday is looking sunny and nice with low humidity and
highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Will continue to monitor the latest
guidance for any changes in the smoke aloft forecasts.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

The next front and trough approaches the area later in the day on
Tuesday, Tuesday night and into Wednesday. This will bring
increasing moisture and instability in the southerly flow on
Tuesday. Dew points will rise back around 70F and high temperatures
are expected to reach into the lower 80s. This will all depend on
the timing of the incoming front thought. SPC does have a portion of
the forecast area in a 15% day 4 risk, so we will need to monitor
the timing of this incoming system closely for potential organized
convection. Showers and possible thunderstorms continue Tuesday
night and even into Wednesday at the mid and upper level trough
slowly pulls east. Conditions then look to dry out with seasonal
temperatures for the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move through
NEPA and CNY through the evening hours. Kept a few TEMPO groups
around for the scattered coverage. Some patchy smoke is still
possible as well. Still fairly good confidence that a MVFR deck
forms later this evening into the overnight for all CNY
terminals. This deck should burn off by mid to late morning
Sunday.

Outlook:

The rest of Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms
along with associated restrictions.

Thursday... Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...MWG