Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

881
FXUS61 KBGM 032325
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
725 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Also lowered temperatures tomorrow with it looking like
convection will start earlier in the day.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected today and on
the 4th across NY and PA. Some of these storms could be severe
with damaging wind gusts along with very heavy rain that could
lead to localized flash flooding.

2) Hot and humid conditions expected through Tomorrow, before
cooling off towards average highs next week.

3) An area of low pressure moves slowly through the region
early next week bringing widespread rain with locally heavy
downpours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

With temperatures already in the upper 80s and low 90s across
NY and PA early this afternoon, SPC mesoanalysis has 3000 to
4000 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Water vapor imagery does show a
deep layer of dry air above the boundary layer so as heating
continues, some dry air will mix down into the boundary layer so
dew points likely will slowly fall. An outflow boundary from
storms near Lake Erie this morning is moving through the Finger
Lakes and eventually through the rest of the Twin Tiers and CNY
by the late afternoon. This boundary will likely be the focus of
a few thunderstorms that would generate their own outflow and
spark likely off more storms.

The dry air aloft and the dry air mixing into the boundary
layer will make for favorable conditions for downburst and
microburst with any storm that develops this afternoon. It will
not take a very large storm to get dry air entrainment into the
updraft causing a collapse, then dry air and steep lapse rates
below the LCLs will help downdrafts accelerate to the surface.
DCAPE is already over 1000 J/kg, SPC mesoanalysis page does over
estimate DCAPE but this is well into the needed DCAPE for
severe winds with downdrafts.

Tomorrow is looking nearly the same as we remain on the NE side
of the large ridge. The 500 mb heights do start to fall late
tonight into tomorrow, with CIN eroding a little earlier
tomorrow than today so convection may pop off more late morning
into the early afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Today is another day in the upper 80s and 90s across the region
with dew points remaining in the upper 60s or higher. If
thunderstorms can hold off until 3 pm, heat indices will climb
back near 100 to 110 for valleys and urban areas. Tomorrow is
looking cooler with recent trends in models with the ridge
flattening out starting this evening. 500 mb heights fall from
around 590 dm today to around 584 dm tomorrow, and 850 mb
temperatures fall from the upper teens to mid teens. Forecast
soundings show less cin as well so storms will likely fire
earlier in the day, prior to being able to reach peak heating.
Right now, heat indices should remain below 100 for NEPA and
below 90 for NY so no new advisories were issued. Clouds and
rain begin to move in Sunday with more average temperatures for
the second half of the weekend into next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The NE edge of the ridge will likely dip south of the region
late this weekend into early next week as the large ridge
retrogrades to the west. Models have been consistent with a weak
area of low pressure that slowly traverses through the Great
Lakes into the Mid Atlantic bringing clouds and rain to our
region. Given moist flow through the central US into the Great
Lakes region, this low will have plenty of moisture to work
with, as PWATs will be near 2 inches Sunday through Tuesday.
Showers will be persistent basically Sunday night through
Tuesday. Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon has a flash
flood risk as breaks of sun leads to instability and potential
for slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rain. Since we remain
near the edge of the ridge through the rest of next week,
frequent shortwave will keep the pattern active but at least not
as hot.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Still monitoring isolated showers and thunderstorms across the
region early this evening. However, none are expected to hit
any of the TAF sites at this time. Kept a persistence forecast
for hints of VFR fog overnight at KRME and KELM. Mainly VFR
conditions are expected through the night and morning hours
Saturday. Additional showers and possible thunderstorms should
begin to develop in the late morning and afternoon hours.
Coverage, timing and locations impacted is still somewhat
uncertain so just a mention of showers for now.


Outlook:

Saturday night through Sunday...Mostly VFR, chances for
additional showers and thunderstorms with restrictions.

Sunday Night through Monday...Restrictions possible due to
widespread showers and afternoon isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a low chance for showers, mainly at
ELM, BGM, and AVP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...MWG