Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

219
FXUS61 KBGM 280449
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1249 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Very few changes to the near term forecast with this update. Focus
is more on dialing in on the upcoming mid-week heat and potential
pitfalls to accuracy.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated showers or a thunderstorm may occur primarily over NE PA
and the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Catskills this
afternoon.

2) Heat and humidity will be increasing through this week leading to
elevated heat indices.

3) With the heat and humidity, Tuesday through the end of the week
could have daily isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Upper level ridging builds in today through Monday and beyond.
Conditions for precipitation are mostly unfavorable with increasing
subsidence and neutral to slightly dry advection expected. Monday
looks to have the best chance of being totally dry across the
forecast area...but Sunday afternoon still poses some potential for
isolated shower or thunderstorm activity in NEPA and the Catskills,
Alleghany Plateau from terrain based mechanisms or being in closer
proximity to the stationary front along the Mason-Dixon line.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A strong ridge builds into the Eastern US this next week with
temperatures and dew points gradually increasing each day through
late week. 500 mb heights rise over 590 dm with 850 mb temperatures
greater than 20C so afternoon highs will be well into the 90s for
most of the region starting Wednesday through the remainder of the
week. Dew points look to climb into the upper 60s and low 70s as
well. NBM blends have mid 70s for dew points which appears to be a
high bias, especially where westerly component winds are a drying
downslope off the Allegany Plateau. That said, moisture in the
boundary layer can sweep into the lake plain from WNY where higher
dewpoint values across much of the Ohio River Valley are well above
average so the Finger Lakes and Syracuse area could see oppressive
mid-70s dewpoints. One thing that could limit our warmer
temperatures and prevent upper 90s and even a few 100s in urban
areas for air temperatures will be afternoon convection. Despite the
ridge, there will not be a lot of CIN so showers and storms could
develop early afternoon and help keep highs slightly cooler.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

With the hot and humid conditions, showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon from Tuesday onward. We are not too far from
the edge of the ridge where shortwaves propagating around the top of
the ridge could trigger storms. Tuesday will be a day to watch as
there is an Elevated Mixed Layer moving in, with 500-700 mb lapse
rates near 8C/km. Shear does not look to be too impressive, between
20-25 knots, but still hail and downburst are a possibility with any
deep convection that takes advantage of the lapse rates. Headed into
the rest of the week, MLCAPE tops out around 1500 to 2000 J/kg with
not much CIN so a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
likely. Shear remains low through this period but of course,
microburst will still be possible but widepsread severe storms is
not expected. Some relief from the heat is expected next weekend as
upper heights fall and a weak front drops south from Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the TAF
period. Isolated light rain showers will be possible through the
evening hours at KAVP, but these will likely not result in
restrictions.

Model guidance hints at fog developing across the area tonight,
but this will be highly depend on cloud cover. Clear skies are
possible early on in the evening, but clouds are expected to
fill in overnight especially over northeast PA and most of
central NY. RME has the best chance to stay mostly clear.
Otherwise IFR TEMPO groups were used at sites where cross over
temperature is reached.


Outlook:

Sunday through Monday...VFR likely during the day, valley fog
possible each morning.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mostly VFR, but some restrictions
will be possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Current High Temperature Records:

6/30: BGM - 92 (1964), SYR - 94 (1971), AVP - 97 (1964)
7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018)
7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAB
AVIATION...ES
CLIMATE...BTL