Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

170
FXUS61 KBGM 210004
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
804 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added in more patchy fog tonight as the low levels remain quite
saturated. Increased cloud cover on Monday with several cloud layers
forecast. Increased PoPs and QPF Monday night into Tuesday across
Northeast PA and the NY Southern Tier. There is no higher confidence
for dry weather Wednesday and Thursday across the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gradually drying out this evening, but staying mostly cloudy
overnight into Monday as a northerly flow becomes established.

2) A wave of low pressure will move slowly east along a remnant
frontal boundary Monday night into Tuesday, bringing rain to
Northeast  PA and perhaps the NY Southern Tier.

3) High pressure nudges in from the north, bringing dry, partly
sunny and seasonably cool weather mid week.

4) Watching a potential coastal low for the end of the work week
into next weekend that looks to meander along the southern New
England shore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Drizzle and light rain will gradually taper off into this evening as
the weak cold front presses south and east. The latest satellite
loop shows plenty of low clouds in place across NY and PA this
afternoon, fading to higher, thinner clouds over southern Ontario.
The main forecast challenge tonight will be just how much partial
clearing the area sees and therefore how much fog may form.
Northerly winds also look to remain steady between 3-8 mph much of
the night, but could decouple in the deeper valleys. Depending on
how thin the higher clouds get will also impact temperatures
overnight. The latest forecast sticks with the NBM ensemble bland,
which brings quite cool conditions, with lows in the upper 30s to
40s for Central NY, and mid-40s to mid-50s for NE PA.

On Monday there will initially be some low level moisture trapped
below 2500 feet agl over the  region in the morning, with broken to
overcast stratus clouds expected. By early afternoon the low level
moisture mixes out, but high level clouds develop between 20k to 35k
feet agl. Overall, this should generally mean mostly cloudy
conditions for most of the day, but some filtered sunshine is also
expected to occur. Temperatures will be seasonable in the 60s for
highs. Northerly winds are slightly breezy between 6-15 mph through
the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The latest 12z model guidance is starting to come into better
agreement on the forecast details Monday night into Tuesday as a
wave of low pressure moves slowly east across Pennsylvania. Clouds
should increase Monday evening, with rain developing over NE PA
during the mid to late evening hours. The steadiest rain will be in
and around the Wyoming valley area, continuing into the overnight
hours (where around a half inch is expected by morning). The rain
looks to extend northward very close to the NY/PA border, with the
exact northward extent still uncertain...but probably close to the
Rte 17/I-86 corridor. Some periodic light rain continues into
Tuesday morning, while gradually shifting south and west as high
pressure advects in drier air from the northeast. Other than a few
lingering showers or sprinkles over the Wyoming Valley the area
should dry out by Tuesday afternoon; but clouds will linger in NE
PA. Further north across the rest of Central NY confidence is
increasing that it will remain dry for this time period, with mostly
cloudy conditions Monday night becoming mostly sunny Tuesday
afternoon. Temperatures will vary considerably, with cool overnight
lows in the 40s Monday night in most locations. On Tuesday it looks
to range from the mid-50s to low 60s in NE PA, with low to mid-60s
for most of Central NY (outside of the higher elevations, which may
stay in the 50s). Winds remain out of the northeast for this
timeframe, generally between 5 to 15 mph.

There will be a sharp south to north gradient in rainfall amounts
Monday night into Tuesday. Expect potentially between 1 to 1.5
inches along and south of I-80 in NE PA, fading to a third of an
inch near I-84 and less than a tenth of an inch for the NY/PA border
region (Twin Tiers). This is still a tricky forecast when it comes
down to pinning the exact rainfall amounts and locations...so please
check back as we monitor and adjust for the latest model trends.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

There is now high confidence in the latest guidance that an
expansive surface high and subtle rising 500mb heights will be over
the area Wednesday into Thursday. This should provide dry, and partly
to mostly sunny conditions both days for the entire forecast area.
Low level winds remain out of the east-northeast so temperatures
look to remain seasonable in the 60s for highs. Overnight lows could
be chilly, in the upper 30s to mid-40s in most locations. Can`t rule
out some patchy frost for the normally colder locations if skies can
clear and wind decouple enough.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

A complex weather pattern sets up late in the week into next
weekend. A piece of upper level energy dives south out of Quebec
into the local area. At the same time a closed upper level low
drifts east across the Ohio Valley and off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
By Friday morning these feature could phase/combine into a stronger
mid and upper level low off the Delmarva region. Surface
cyclogenesis occurs with a deepening low taking shape. There remains
much uncertainty on where this low could ultimately develop and
track. There is some potential for wrap around rain to push back to
the west into some of our eastern forecast zones Friday into
Saturday. Again, a lot of uncertainty and differences remain in the
deterministic guidance. Ensembles means are beginning to pick up on
this low development though, and this possible coastal low will
certainly be tracked closely over the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly MVFR cigs across the area this evening, with RME and BGM
popping in and out of IFR. As drier air works its way in from
the north, we should see some restrictions lift, but confidence
is low as guidance continues to be unsure as to how long the low
level moisture will be in place. Thinking is that with a north
wind at RME, ceilings should bounce in and out of IFR over the
next few hours as drizzle moves through the area, then become
VFR by 03z with downsloping off the Tug Hill. ELM should also
become VFR after 03z, but some possible lingering low level
moisture and more favorable NE winds could allow for a low
stratus deck and some patchy ground fog to develop around
sunrise, with TEMPO IFR conditions possible. BGM should see some
TEMPO IFR cigs for the next few hours before climbing to MVFR
for much of the night. Lingering moisture and favorable winds
could allow for some periodic IFR restrictions around sunrise.
NE winds at AVP is expected to push moisture up to the terminal
later this evening, with IFR restrictions occurring into the
overnight hours. MVFR cigs should return after 07z.

All terminals are expected to become VFR by mid to late
morning, lasting through the end of the TAF period.


Outlook...

Monday Night and Tuesday...Possible restrictions with showers,
especially NE PA and perhaps the NY Southern Tier terminals.

Wednesday and Thursday...Likely VFR most of the time.

Thursday night...High pressure may allow for patchy fog and IFR
restrictions.

Friday...VFR conditions expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...JTC