Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

024
FXUS61 KBGM 291802
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
102 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased snowfall amounts for northern Central NY counties for
the upcoming heavy lake effect snow event starting this
evening. Conditions are trending favorable for a long-duration
lake effect event, with the first portion depicting a well-
organized, heavy band expected for Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida
counties, where 1 to 2 feet of snow is expected, with possible
localized areas of up to 3 feet. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches
per hour possible, with up to 3 inches per hour possible during
the overnight hours tonight into Tuesday morning.

Wording for whiteout conditions added to headlines, as the
combination of gusty winds up to 50 mph and heavy lake effect
snow will create widespread blowing snow for northern Central NY
this evening through Tuesday morning.

Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Steuben County for snow
expected, as lake effect snow from Lake Erie is expected to
push into Steuben County this evening through Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold front today will bring strong gusty winds across the
area.

2) A prolonged lake effect snow event is expected from Monday
night into midweek across northern Central NY. Increasing winds
will lead to areas of widespread blowing and drifting snow, with
periods of reduced visibility and heavy lake effect.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A deepening low progresses over the Great Lakes, where warm air
advection and southerly flow has begun, increasing temperatures
into the mid to upper 30s, with a few areas already at 40
degrees. A cold front pushing in from the west this afternoon
will begin to drop temperatures back to below freezing in the
late afternoon, where slick spots may develop on untreated
surfaces. Additionally, and perhaps the larger threat, will be
increasing winds as the pressure gradient tightens going into
the afternoon. Forecast soundings in BUFKIT show some top of
boundary layer winds approaching 60 knots. Wind gusts were
raised closer to the NBM 90th percentile to match closer to the
potential max wind gusts in BUFKIT. Wind gusts up to 50 mph can
be expected across all of Central NY and NE PA through Tuesday
evening.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The upper level low will pass north of the area this evening,
with westerly flow transitioning to northwesterly flow. Cold air
filters into the region, with 850 mb temperatures falling into
the -10 to -15 C range with relatively warm Lake Ontario
temperatures of 4 to 6 degrees C. As northwest flow establishes,
a multi-lake connection develops, and well-organized lake effect
band or bands are expected to develop over northern Central NY
this evening and into the overnight hours. Embedded shortwaves
rotating around the upper low will periodically move through
the region, impacting band orientation and organization and
enhancing snowfall rates downstream of the lakes.

For tonight through Wednesday morning, 1 to 2 feet of snow, with
localized amounts up to 3 feet, is expected for northern Central
NY. Model soundings depict enhancement overnight tonight into
Tuesday morning, with negative omega maximums and LI CAPE
intersecting in the DGZ, which may increase snowfall rates up to
3 inches per hour.

Heavy lake effect snow, in combination with strong gusty winds,
will create widespread blowing snow, which could create
blizzard-like, whiteout conditions.

Winter Storm Warnings for Onondaga-Madison-Oneida counties, and
Winter Weather Advisories for Cayuga-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego
counties, remain in effect this evening through Wednesday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some lingering rain showers are passing through SYR and RME with
restriction lingering at RME. A brief lull in precipitation is
then expected this afternoon before lake effect snow develops
later today over Central NY. Snow will initially be light with
restrictions falling to MVFR but then snow picks up overnight
and IFR visibilities will be possible at RME, SYR, and ITH.
There is uncertainty where the bands will set up and the timing
of the heaviest snow. Guidance has been consistent though with a
band setting up near or over SYR. High winds will also result in
blowing snow, so visibilities may be reduced at times even if
snow isn`t falling. At ELM and BGM, light snow will be possible
but should not be heavy being more south, so restrictions should
remain at MVFR. Snow should remain north of AVP.

Southwesterly winds will become northwesterly overnight. Winds
will remain gusty with peak gusts near or in excess of 40 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Winds remain gusty but gradually become calmer.
Restrictive lake effect snow showers, especially KSYR-KRME but
at least occasionally the other NY terminals. KSYR-KRME may have
combination of heavy snow and blowing snow at times, with below
1 mile visibility.

Wednesday...Lingering lake effect clouds and snow showers for
mainly the NY terminals, but cannot rule out some showers making
it south to KAVP.

Thursday through Friday...Restrictions possible behind a cold
front that brings snow showers to the region. Limited to mainly
KSYR-KRME by Friday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ009-018-036-037.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ017-044>046.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...BTL