Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

905
FXUS61 KBGM 152348
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
748 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall amounts for Sunday have trended down slightly more
than the previous update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A pleasant start to the weekend will get disrupted Sunday as a
weak low pressure system moves through the region.

2) High pressure returns Tuesday though a quick moving frontal
system moves through late Wednesday. Drier conditions then return
late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure has brought a pleasant start to the weekend. Despite
some scattered cloud cover, there is plenty of sunshine to go
around. A couple models try to develop spotty showers this afternoon
with a shortwave passing through New England, but confidence was too
low to add PoPs as drier air will likely be too much to overcome.
Southerly flow and increasing cloud cover will help keep
temperatures slightly more mild overnight. Low temperatures will be
in the 50s and low 60s.

A weak low pressure system will approach the area early Sunday
morning. Scattered showers develop ahead of this system by
midday for portions of northeast PA and the Southern Tier.
Shower chances will increase across the area during the
afternoon, though coverage will be scattered, especially across
central NY. With cloud cover quick to spread northward,
instability will be limited. Still, isolated non-severe
thunderstorms will be possible. Mixing of stronger flow aloft
will lead to gusts of 20 to 25 mph during the afternoon and
evening. Showers will continue through the overnight hours and
into Monday morning as low-level moisture lingers behind the
departing system. Peak PWAT values will be around 2 inches and
warm cloud depths will exceed 10k feet. Most of model guidance
keep the bulk of the precipitation south of the region as
rainfall accumulations continue to trend down slightly. The best
potential for heavy rainfall with localized totals of 1 inch or
more is across the Wyoming Valley and into the Poconos.
Fortunately, these areas have not seen as much rainfall recently
compared to other areas in the region and flash flood guidance
is high. While there may be some ponding and localized urban
issues, confidence is low in widespread flash flooding so no
watch was issued.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure returns on Tuesday and will stick around through early
Wednesday. A cold front is quick to move through late Wednesday into
Thursday morning with the next round of showers. While instability
will be limited, afternoon thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
There is still some uncertainty on how quick these showers exit
as high pressure builds back in on Thursday. Following the
front, cooler air fills in and temperatures will be below
average the rest of the week. High pressure will remain in
control through at least the start of next weekend with most of
the region expected to see a few days without rain. Some model guidance
have a weak low that moves up the coast late in the week. If
this system tracks close to the coastline, then there will be
potential for showers to clip parts of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Quiet weather under high pressure expected tonight. VFR
conditions will persist under mostly clear skies through the
rest of this evening. High level clouds increase late tonight
and Sunday morning ahead of an approaching warm front with
ceilings lowering between 12Z-18Z. Restrictions will encroach
from the south with rain and associated vsby/ceiling
restrictions after mainly 15Z. The precipitation from ITH to
SYR/RME on Sunday will be very scattered in nature, with mainly
MVFR restrictions. Cannot completely rule out a brief IFR
restriction at ITH.

There is a higher chance of MVFR/IFR restrictions and steadier
rain showers at ELM, BGM and especially AVP on Sunday as the
weak low pressure system moves eastward across PA. Best chance
of IFR restrictions looks to be between 20-23Z. Brief heavy rain
is possible (45-60%) at AVP.

Variable winds tonight will become southeasterly Sunday morning
with gusts 15 to 20 kt possible through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...MVFR-VFR. A few isolated showers or
thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Some potential for
early morning fog, mainly at KELM.

Wednesday night to Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms possible
with associated flight restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...BJT/JAB