Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

328
FXUS61 KBGM 171053
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
653 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms today may bring locally heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding.

2) Cooler and drier weather returns Friday into Saturday, with
chilly overnight temperatures and mostly clear skies.

3) Another system will bring widespread showers Saturday night into
Sunday, followed by drier weather Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A low pressure system approaches from the west this morning, with a
warm front lifting into the region and scattered showers developing
ahead of it. Shower coverage will increase through the day as the
associated cold front approaches by mid afternoon. Model soundings
continue to show PWAT values approaching 2 inches at times,
supporting the potential for locally heavy downpours.

Instability remains modest, with CAPE generally a few hundred J/Kg
early in the day and potentially increasing to around 500-600J/Kg by
afternoon according to the NAM. However, ongoing morning showers and
cloud cover may limit destabilization, so the degree of afternoon
instability remains somewhat uncertain. Deep layer shear of around
30 knots will be present, though low and mid level lapse rates
remain rather weak. Given these parameters, any isolated severe
thunderstorm potential should be mainly confined to the Southern
Tier of NY into Northeast PA. Sounding profiles also show long
skinny CAPE, favoring efficient rainfall production. A marginal risk
for excessive rainfall remains in place across the western portion
of the region, where isolated flash flooding will be possible.

Showers will gradually end from west to east Thursday evening, as
the front moves east of the area. Temperatures ahead of the front
will rise into the mid 70s to near 80 possible where greater
breaks in the clouds and showers occur. Rainfall amounts today
are generally expected to range from one third to half an inch,
with locally higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure Will build into the region behind the front,
bringing a cooler and drier air mass for Friday. Mostly sunny
skies are expected through the day, with mainly clear conditions
continuing into early Saturday morning. Under the influence of
the cooler air mass and surface high, temperatures Friday and
Saturday will generally only reach the mid 60s to lower 70s. The
cooler air will be more noticeable overnight, with lows falling
into the lower 40s to lower 50s. Some of the typically cooler
locations across northern Oneida county could dip into the upper
30s. Clouds will then begin to increase Saturday afternoon
ahead of the next approaching system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another low pressure system will approach from the west
Saturday night into Sunday, bringing chances for showers.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the low will transport moisture
northward, supporting the potential for moderate to widespread
rainfall. Guidance has trended a bit slower with the passage of
the low compared to yesterday, likely due to lingering influence
from the surface high earlier in the weekend. Showers may
therefore continue through much of Sunday before gradually
tapering off by Sunday evening. Monday currently looks mainly
dry as surface high pressure develops north of the Great Lakes.
Model guidance begins to diverge by Tuesday, leading to
increasing uncertainity in how the midweek pattern will evolve.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain showers will continue across the area until around 22z/00z,
with mainly MVFR/Fuel Alt restrictions. Conditions are forecast
to continue MVFR/Fuel Alt restrictions after the rain has
passed, with low ceilings left over. Conditions may bounce
between MVFR and VFR after 00z.


Outlook...

Thursday Night...Patchy fog expected to develop, with IFR
restrictions possible.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...Rain expected for much of the
period. Periods of IFR restrictions possible.

Monday... Scattered rain showers and associated restrictions
possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ES
AVIATION...KL