Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

756
FXUS61 KBGM 181358
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
958 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered QPF totals from the NBM Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler, drier and less humid weather will be in place today
through Saturday.

2) An unsettled weather pattern will take shape beginning on Sunday
and last through at least midweek with multiple rounds of rain
showers and cool temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure currently centered over western Ontario will be
building into the area later today leading to drier, less humid
and quiet conditions into Saturday. Lingering clouds and a
couple of brief showers or sprinkles around early this morning
in the wake of a cold frontal passage will give way to clearing
and a mostly sunny afternoon. Dew points will be falling as
well so it won`t feel nearly as sticky outside. High
temperatures across CNY are expected to be a few degrees lower
than Thursday, but overall pretty close to average in the upper
60s and low 70s. Highs are expected to be in the mid and upper
70s in portions of NE PA and Sullivan County, NY, mainly in the
Wyoming and Delaware River Valleys. As high pressure settles
overhead tonight with light winds and a clear to partly cloudy
sky, good radiational cooling conditions will be in place. Lows
will be largely in the 40s with some spots in the Catskills and
Northern Oneida County dropping into the upper 30s. Patchy
frost cannot be ruled out in these locations, especially if lows
drop a couple of degrees lower, but confidence remains low at
this time to add to the forecast grids.

One more dry day is expected on Saturday with a good deal of
sunshine, although some higher clouds may sneak in from the west
later in the day ahead of the next system as high pressure
slides to the east. Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A low pressure system will approach from the west later
Saturday night into Sunday, bringing the next round of rain to
the area. Southwesterly flow ahead of the low will transport
moisture northward, supporting the potential for a widespread
rainfall. Rain is expected through much of Sunday before
gradually tapering off by Sunday evening. There is the potential
for some areas of locally heavy rainfall, especially across
portions of NE PA and the Southern Catskills Sunday. PWATs climb
to 1.50 to 1.80 inches or so on average with warm cloud layer
depths of 11-12K feet and strengthening winds aloft as winds at
850mb increase across central and eastern PA, the Southern Tier
and into the Catskills. The NAM has winds as high as 45 to 55
knots, while the GFS and Euro don`t look to be as bullish, but
still the ingredients are there for a soaking rainfall. Most
deterministic and ensemble model guidance have rainfall amounts
topping out around 1.25-1.50 inches of rain late Saturday night
through Sunday evening, but there can be a little enhancement
due to the ingredients just mentioned. However, the NBM looked
too high in it`s rainfall totals of 2.20 to nearly 2.50 inches
in parts of this area, especially given the lack of instability
and convection, so WPC was blended in to taper those numbers a
bit. This gives us rainfall totals of about 1.50-2.00 inches
across NE PA into the Southern Catskills, about 0.50 to 1.25
inches for the Southern Tier of NY and less than 0.50 inch of
rain around the Finger Lakes northeastward toward the Tug Hill
region. Sunday will be a noticeably cooler day with highs in the
upper 50s to the mid 60s.

Monday currently looks mainly dry as surface high pressure
develops north of the Great Lakes. That being said, some
lingering showers will be possible in Northeast PA.

Tuesday through at least midweek there appears to be a cutoff
upper level low that develops near the Great Lakes that tries to
drift toward our area. This would lead to cloudy, cool and
unsettled conditions with rounds of showers and below-average
temperatures through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lingering ceiling restrictions will be possible through the
morning hours. Satellite does show clearing beginning to spread
across the region, helping improve some sites to VFR. Conditions
are then expected to be VFR through the rest of the TAF period.
Winds will be sustained at 5 to 10 kts with gusts between 15 and
20 kts later this afternoon.


Outlook...

Friday Night and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...Rain expected for much of the
period. Periods of IFR restrictions possible.

Monday through Tuesday... Scattered rain showers and associated
restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...BTL/KL