Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

716
FXUS61 KBGM 071024
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
624 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little change to going forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Labor Day continues the dry Fall-like pattern that developed
over the weekend.

2) Warming is forecast Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of a
frontal system projected to pass through with showers late
Wednesday into Thursday, perhaps with some embedded thunder.

3) Generally dry benign weather returns towards the end of this
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

We round out the extended Labor Day weekend with a continuation
of dry and cool Fall-like weather. Stacked low pressure which
had been over New England, is drifting away through the Canadian
Maritime Provinces, leaving high pressure to settle over our
region today. Shallow patchy fog can be found in some valleys
early this morning, thanks to radiational cooling offered by the
clear sky. With even less moisture than the already quite dry
atmosphere of the last couple days, just a few tufts of diurnal
cumulus are anticipated today in otherwise full sunshine with
highs of lower-mid 70s after starting off chilly in the mid
40s-lower 50s at dawn. A very weak wave embedded in northwest
flow aloft will send scattered high thin clouds into the area
tonight, yet still enough radiational cooling of the dry air to
get temperatures into the upper 40s-mid 50s for lows.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures will trend warmer Tuesday into Wednesday, as
initial ridging is then followed by warm air advection well
ahead of an approaching front which will bring eventual rain.
Highs top off in upper 70s-lower 80s by Wednesday, yet with
dewpoints getting well into the 60s and thus a bit of mugginess
by then.

In the big picture, low pressure is projected to track from the
Northern Plains into Canada during midweek. A cold front will
trail distantly from that low, moving through our region around
Wednesday night into Thursday. The ridge begins to flatten later
Wednesday, with a ribbon of higher precipitable water values
pooling with the approaching front. Shortwaves may run out ahead
of the surface front as well, so chances of showers will begin
in Central NY Wednesday afternoon before spreading across the
Twin Tiers and then Wyoming Valley- Poconos Wednesday night.
Models continue to differ for whether the front pauses its
progress briefly late Wednesday night-early Thursday, before a
better-defined upper wave finishes sending it through later
Thursday. Thus while highest likelihood for rain is Wednesday
night with the anticipated front, at least a chance of showers
will continue Thursday for at least the Twin Tiers-I88 corridor
and especially Wyoming Valley-Poconos- Catskills.

Timing of front, and limited nature of instability, still keeps
stronger convection chances on the lower side though there could
be some embedded thunder. However, the higher precipitable
water environment could yield a pretty good batch of rain.
Current model ensembles show 50-75 percent odds of more than
half an inch for the NY Thruway counties closer to forced ascent
of jet support as the front settles through, and even nearly 50
percent probability of an inch toward the Tug Hill area. Finger
Lakes-Twin Tiers southward may not get at much as farther
north, but rain is still expected, with a few to several tenths
of an inch a reasonable expectation during the Wednesday night
through Thursday timeframe.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Despite uncertainty for how long the frontal zone lingers into
Thursday, there is solid confidence for dry high pressure to
pay a visit to end the week. However, the generally zonal flow
aloft will keep features moving along, so by Saturday we will
already enter a warm air advection regime in the return flow
behind the departing high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIFR restrictions due to fog at ELM and ITH should clear out
around 13-14z with VFR conditions through the evening hours.
Another night of fog with IFR-LIFR conditions is expected at
these terminals with high pressure overhead.


High pressure overhead will allow for RME/SYR/AVP/BGM to be VFR
through the TAF period.


Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR; areas of low clouds
and fog possible early each day.

Wednesday through Thursday...Potential cold front passage with
wind shift and showers. Highest chance for showers later
Wednesday through Thursday morning.

Friday...Mainly VFR with high pressure building into the
region. Morning fog will be possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...JTC