Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

205
FXUS61 KBGM 211018
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
618 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased cloud cover over the region today, and also increased
chances for rain this morning across portions of the Wyoming Valley
and Poconos. Issued a frost advisory for portions of Central NY
tonight into early Friday morning, as temperatures are forecast to
fall into the low to mid 30s in the colder valley locations.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lingering showers will be across the Wyoming Valley and Poconos
this morning, with mid and high level clouds overspreading much of
the forecast area through the day. High pressure builds into the
area tonight, with clearing skies, light winds and cold overnight
lows in the 30s to low 40s. A frost advisory has been issued for
Oneida, Madison, Chenango, Cortland, Otsego and Delaware counties
from 11 PM this evening until 8 AM Friday morning.

2) Friday will feature high pressure, mostly sunny skies and
seasonably mild temperatures. The next slow moving frontal system
brings periods of rain and much cooler temperatures to kick off the
upcoming weekend. Showers linger into Sunday morning, with some
drying possible later in the afternoon.

3) Memorial Day will see a warming trend, but it still looks to
remain mostly cloudy with scattered showers possible. Guidance shows
a continued warming trend, with dry and mainly sunny conditions
heading into Tuesday/Wednesday next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mid level moisture continues to stream north and east over the area
north of a stalled frontal boundary. The latest MRMS regional radar
loop shows a batch of showers extending from Ohio, across PA into
our NE PA counties. At the same time, drier air is filtering in from
the north, with a light north wind advecting in lower dew points.
Kept the official forecast close to the NBM data for this morning`s
PoPs and QPF, but did nudge both a bit higher and further north
based on radar trends and the latest HRRR/3km NAM guidance. It is
still possible the steady rain makes it slightly further north (like
the 03z HRRR is indicating)...and this would mean a steady light
rainfall this morning across Pike, southern Wayne, Lackawanna and
Luzerne counties in NE PA, along with SE Sullivan County NY. This
will be monitored closely early this morning to see if any forecast
adjustments may be needed. Otherwise, mid and high level clouds will
stream SW to NE over the area through most of the day today; there
could be some filtered sunshine especially the further north and west
you are. The cloud bases are high, generally up near 20k ft AGL
upstream in the Buffalo, Cleveland area. Today will see cooler
temperatures with highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s expected, and a
light north wind 5 to 15 mph.

High pressure build in from the north this evening and tonight.
Initially the mid and high level clouds will linger across the Twin
Tiers and Catskill even a few hours after sunset, but then the
clouds drop south and dissipate overnight. This will lead to mainly
clear conditions (except some clouds linger in the Wyoming Valley
and NE PA south of I-84). Winds will be light and variable,
decoupling in the valley locations. With low dew points in the 30s
to low 40s, this dry air mass should allow temperatures to fall
quite quickly after sunset. Lowered forecast overnight temperatures
using a blend of the latest MET, MAV and NBM 10th percentile
guidance. Decided to hoist a frost advisory where overnight lows dip
down below 36 degrees (over a majority of the forecast zone). Again,
Frost Advisories are in effect from 11 PM this evening until 8 AM
Friday morning for Oneida, Madison, Chenango, Cortland, Otsego and
Delaware counties where confidence was highest that many locations
woulds see some frost. Across most of the rest of Central NY a
mention of patchy valley frost was made in the HWO, where low
temperatures may locally dip down just cold enough (35-37F) for this
to occur.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure remains firmly in place across our area on Friday
morning. By the afternoon hours the high pressure center begins to
slide north and east, with some increasing clouds expected for
portions of our area (mainly NE PA). Otherwise, Friday will be dry
and mild with high temperatures in the mid-60s to lower 70s and a
light east wind up to 10 mph.

Rain moves in from the south and west later Friday night and
continues through much of the day on Saturday as a low pressure
system tracks into the Ohio Valley. Our area will be locked in a
very cool, cold air damming, easterly flow regime all day. As the
rain falls, surface temperatures will cool due to wet bulbing (dew
points are progged to be in 40s)...this will lead to high
temperatures only in the upper 40s to mid 50s across NE PA, the
Catskills and Twin Tiers. Further north, the rain may not start
right away in the morning and it could reach the lower 60s for the
Mohawk Valley and Syracuse metro area. Rainfall amounts look to be
between about a half inch to one inch areawide Saturday into
Saturday night.

By Sunday, there will be some lingering morning showers as the front
pulls off to the east. The latest guidance is showing drier
conditions, but still mainly cloudy and cool in the afternoon. Highs
only reach the upper 50s to 60s east of I-81, with upper 60s to
around 70 west of I-81 expected.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Memorial Day still features a lot of forecast uncertainty, with the
deterministic models disagreeing on the timing and placement of
frontal features. For now, the official forecast will be based on
the NBM/WPC ensemble guidance. This is showing a decreasing trend in
PoPs, but still a chance for some scattered showers around at times.
Temperatures do see the beginnings of a warming trend, reaching the
low to mid-70s for highs. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that
heading into the middle of next week (Tuesday/Wednesday) it will be
dry, mostly sunny and warmer under upper level ridging. Current
guidance brings high temperatures back into the mid-70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions with mid to upper clouds providing ceilings from
8K to 20K ft. AVP will have some passing light rain showers or
sprinkles this morning, but no restrictions are expected with
these passing showers. Winds will be light and mostly out of the
North to NNW.


Outlook:

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday night through Monday...Periods of rain showers and
embedded thunderstorms possible throughout the holiday weekend.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ009-036-037-044>046-057.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...MPK