State College, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

421
FXUS61 KCTP 111856
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
256 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
*Cloudy, chilly and wet end to the week/start to the weekend
*Drying out Sunday with some sun and milder temperatures
*Warmer with late-day rain showers Monday followed by windy and
 cooler weather next Tuesday and Wednesday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Main forecast trends are for southern stream upper low to
meander slightly farther offshore in the next 24 to 36 hours,
focusing steadiest precipitation over eastern third of PA.
Amplifying 500 mb trough over the Mid Atlantic region this
afternoon as jet streak rounds the base of the trough and lifts
northeastward along the coastal plain. Favorable left exit
region jet strengthening fgen forcing on the NW side of
developing sfc low along the VA/NC coast will be across the
southeastern zones with 0.75-1+ inch rainfall totals fcst near
and southeast of I81. Latest HREF indicates highest probability
for >1" is near and southeast of US30 corridor in
Adams/York/Lancaster County. Simultaneously, dynamic cooling and
a TROWAL feature looks to produce higher elevation snow accums
from the hill tops of Schuylkill County northward, but
especially from the Pocono Plateau into nrn NJ and the Catskills
where a few to several inches of elevation dependent snow are
possible tonight into Saturday.

In our neck of the woods, light rain/drizzle will continue over
the northwestern half to 2/3 of the forecast area through
tonight with QPF totals of less than 0.50 inches. Thermal
profiles tonight will support some mix or changeover to wet snow
over the higher elevations in the northeastern quadrant of the
forecast area, but boundary layer and sfc temps above 32F
suggest any slushy coating <0.5" will be limited to non- paved
sfcs. Mins tonight end up in the low to mid 30s north and
northeast and the upper 30s to lower 40s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sfc low tracks off the coast Saturday AM and llvl flow backs to
the north delivering drier air. Wrap around moisture within the
cold conveyor belt/TROWAL on the northwest periphery of the
closed upper low will result in another chilly and damp day
across CPA to start the second weekend of April, and daytime
maxTs still below NBM for this cool setup.

Any residual precip tapers off from NW to SE early Saturday
night. But extensive low clouds are expected due to pesky
subsidence inversion trapping the llvl moisture as sfc high
builds into central PA late Saturday night. Min temps will be
similar to Friday night in the 35-40F range.

The good news is that much improved and more seasonable weather
is expected on Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds as high
pressure migrates over the Keystone State. Max temps are
projected to climb by +10-15 degrees vs. Saturday with highs in
the 50-60F range or very close to daily climo. A warm front
lifting northeast from the Ohio Valley could provide more clouds
than fcst especially into Sunday night and maybe even some
light rain showers over southwest PA. Lows also trend warmer vs.
Saturday night with the largest MinT24hrChange of +5 to +10F
across the western mtns where southerly return flow will be most
active into Monday.

The return southwest flow on Monday should result in a warm
Monday with maxtemps several degrees above climo. A fast-
moving cold front is progged to sweep across central PA Monday
afternoon/evening, accompanied by a round of showers for most of
the area. Strong large scale forcing and decent moisture return
support high POPs but relatively low QPF per the latest EPS
plumes (ensemble mean qpf 0.1-0.4 inches)

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
After a brief warm up late Sunday into Monday, we`ll have a
return to colder conditions for mid week, as a strong cold
front moves across the region on Tuesday.

Gusty winds and dewpoints in the 20s will prvail for mid week.
Recent wet conditions and ongoing greenup should offset the
risk of fire weather concerns.

Ridging across central Pennsylvania will give us a chance
of some dry and milder conditions for Thursday.

A series of weak lows will be possible by late week, with more
chances of wet weather.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CIGS and visibilities have been dropping so far today.
Given the time of day, expect things to level off or perhaps
come up a bit, but expect conditions to lower once again
around dark.

Some rain moves into the southeast sites like MDT and LNS later
this afternoon, as an inverted trough lingers over the area.

Did not hit the rain real hard in the TAFs, but as the
upper level low and surface low cut off near the New
England coast, the area of rain could edge westward
late tonight into Saturday.

Not really seeing much change of VFR conditions before
later Sunday.

Outlook...

Sun...Improving conditions/trending VFR.

Mon...Chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, mainly
late.

Tue-Wed...Gusty northwest winds. Perhaps a rain or snow
shower, mainly Tuesday and early Wednesday. Most of the
activity across the far west and northwest.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Martin