Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

041
FXUS61 KPBZ 151028
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
628 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and near normal temperatures are expected through
Friday. Morning frost and localized freeze conditions are
possible both Thursday and Friday. Warm temperatures are
expected Saturday before the return of widespread rain with a
cold front Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions continue with near-normal temperatures
- Frost and isolated freeze is possible late tonight and early
  Thursday for much of the area
---------------------------------------------------------------

Update: Early morning radar shows a few light showers over Lake
Erie moving southeast. While this may produce a light shower or
sprinkles along the I-80 corridor, a substantial dry layer at
850 mb should preclude more impact.

Otherwise, confidence remains high for dry conditions today as
high pressure builds across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Our
area remains under northwest flow, sandwiched between a broad
upper ridge over the central CONUS and a deepening trough over
the western Atlantic. As a result, cooler air will filter into
the region today, returning afternoon high temperatures to near
normal (mid-60s for PIT).

Tonight, clearing skies with drier air and calming wind should
result in efficient radiational cooling. This will drop much of
the area (excluding portions of eastern OH and northern WV) into
the mid/low 30s early Thursday morning. Frost is likely in these
areas, and localized freezing temperatures are possible north of
Pittsburgh and in the ridges. A Frost Advisory was issued from
midnight through 9 AM Thurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in dry conditions
- Frost/freeze conditions are likely Thursday night/Friday
  morning
----------------------------------------------------------------

Confidence remains high in dry conditions through Friday as the
central CONUS ridge and Great Lakes surface high gradually
migrate east. Daily high temperatures will remain near
seasonable levels as the area stays under cool northwest flow
aloft. Efficient radiational cooling is expected again Thursday
night/Friday morning, with probabilities for frost and freeze
even higher than the previous night. Areas north and east of
Pittsburgh will likely see widespread freezing conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures return Friday into the weekend
- Rain chances increasing late this weekend

-------------------------------------------------------------------

The central CONUS ridge shifts eastward Friday through the weekend,
centering over the local area early Saturday and over the eastern
seaboard on Sunday as an upstream trough deepens over the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes. Mostly dry conditions can be expected to
start the period, though guidance does still suggest a low
chance for decaying rain showers to make their way across mainly
the northern half of the area Friday night into early Saturday
morning. However, confidence in this occuring remains low as
ensembles are currently in a rather significant disagreement
regarding the magnitude of dry air below 700mb and thus the
amount of sub-cloud evaporation. The latest NBM mean has reduced
PoP, keeping 15-20% only north of I-80. Any precipitation that
does occur should be very light.

As the central CONUS trough continues to advance eastward, it pushes
the upper ridge out over the western Atlantic, returning the local
area to unsettled weather and increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday night. Current ensemble
guidance indicates interquartile 48-hour totals ranging from
0.4" to 1.1" across the region. Totals are highest across
eastern Ohio.

Temperatures will trend warmer Friday through Sunday, climbing
back above seasonal normals. Saturday looks to be the warmest of
the day as highs climb into the low/mid 70s. A cold front on
Sunday will bring temperatures back down to near seasonal
levels to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The combination of cold advection and moisture convergence
along the ridge line east/southeast of Pittsburgh has created
an MVFR stratus deck that is set to slowly erode ENE to SW
through the morning (DUJ improvements first, with MGW last) as
high pressure and its subsidence increases in the post- frontal
environment. Warm advection aloft may also lead to brief light
rain/sprinkles at FKL/DUJ through 15z but dry sub-cloud layer
air should ensure no impacts to restrictions. Elsewhere, very
localized patchy fog in cloud free areas are also likely to
improve as insolation/diurnal heating commences by 14z.

The rest of the day features high confidence in VFR with a
broken layer of mid-level clouds that will dissipate by 00z.
Enough mixing and pressure gradient could lead to an occasional
15-20kt northwest afternoon wind gust but wind becomes fairly
light overnight.

.OUTLOOK...
Surface high pressure with height rises aloft favor VFR into
Saturday morning before a series of shortwaves ahead of the next
cold front bring increased rain and restriction chances.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     OHZ039>041-049-050.
WV...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     WVZ001-002-509>514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley/Frazier
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Cermak/Rackley
AVIATION...Frazier