Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

288
FXUS61 KPBZ 112131
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
531 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool temperatures and scattered showers will persist through
Saturday, mainly east of Pittsburgh, under upper level low
pressure. Surface high pressure then returns for Sunday as dry
weather is expected. By Monday, expect the chance for severe
weather followed by a cold snap on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers, mainly east of Pittsburgh
- Seasonable low temperatures, and Saturday high temperatures
  about 10 to 15 degrees below normal
-------------------------------------------------------------------

A relatively baggy upper trough continues to trudge across the
Upper Ohio Valley. This general pattern will persist into
Saturday fairly weak surface low pressure rides northward along
the Atlantic Seaboard to just off of the Mid-Atlantic coast
tomorrow. Cloud cover and weak cold advection on northerly flow
have suppressed warming today, keeping temperatures around 40
or in the lower 40s in most areas.

Abundant cloud cover will linger through Saturday over most of
the CWA, as moisture remains trapped underneath an inversion.
However, the Zanesville area could see some cloud breaks on the
overall periphery of the surface low`s moisture plume. While
the bulk of precipitation will remain to the south and east of
our region, lingering moisture and low-level convergence along
the ridges may continue to support scattered showers to the east
of Pittsburgh. 850mb temperatures and resultant lake-surface
delta-T values appear to be too low to support much in the way
of lake effect showers tonight. Boundary-layer temperatures in
the higher elevations should cool enough tonight to support a
bit of snow and/or sleet where showers do occur late tonight
into Saturday morning. Accumulation potential in most cases
appears to be close to nil given the warm ground and weak
precipitation rates, with eastern Tucker standing the best
chance of noting less than an inch (about 30-60% of measurable
snow according to the NBM).

The cloud cover will keep temperatures from falling off too
rapidly tonight, and overnight lows will end up near or a touch
above climatology, but Saturday`s highs will end up some 10 to
15 degrees below normal under the clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions Saturday night and continuing through Sunday
- Slight chance of precip Sunday night
- Potential of severe weather on Monday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

There is the potential of a few stray showers Saturday evening along
the Laurels. This is expected to dissipate by Sunday morning as high
pressure is expected to move into the region late tomorrow night.
Temperatures are expected to return to normal values by Sunday as
highs return to highs near 60 degrees. Dry conditions are expected
during the day.

By Sunday night, another low pressure system will lift northeast
into the Great Lakes with the warm front lifting north of the
forecast area Sunday night. This will bring a slight chance of
showers to the area with a 10% to 15% chance of a 0.05 inches of
rainfall or greater. Once the showers pass, the region will be in
the warm sector by Monday morning.

Monday will bring the potential of severe weather as a stout cold
front swings through the forecast area Monday late
afternoon/evening. The ensemble forecast indicates that the surface
based CAPE heading into this event is around 500 J/Kg or less,
however, the proximity of the front and the low center will make
this event one to watch. If there is any clearing in the warm
sector, there will be a huge difference in the available
instability, especially since temperatures will already be in the
low 70s (roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal). The ensembles
suggest the CWASP will register around 50 to 60 for Monday
also hinting at the potential for severe weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A few snow showers possible Tuesday night
- Dry conditions Wednesday through Thursday afternoon
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday night, the cold front will pass through the area leading to
another cold snap. This will make for a few instances of post
frontal showers and even a few snow showers for Tuesday night. There
is not expected to be any significant accumulation as ground
temperatures will still be quite warm after highs on Monday. High
pressure will then infiltrate the region keep dry conditions in
place for Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for rain will come
Thursday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly MVFR ceilings are ongoing this afternoon except for
terminals near the ridges and north of I-80 (FKL, DUJ, LBE, MGW)
where a mix of IFR/LIFR continues. Little additional improvement
is expected through the remainder of this afternoon before
widespread IFR (potentially LIFR at the aforementioned trouble
spots) returns overnight. Improvement is once again expected
Saturday morning, but only to MVFR for most.

ZZV continues to be an outlier given its location farther west
and on the periphery of the lowest stratus. Maintained MVFR
there through tonight and into Saturday morning, but hi-res
ensemble probabilities suggest as high as a 50-70% chance that
it breaks into VFR at least briefly overnight before dropping
back to MVFR Saturday morning.

Winds remain light and generally out of the north throughout the
TAF period.

Outlook...
Restrictions are likely to continue, along with rain and snow
showers, through Saturday night as an upper low drifts across
the region. VFR returns Sunday under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CL/Lupo
NEAR TERM...CL/Lupo
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/Lupo
LONG TERM...Shallenberger/Lupo
AVIATION...Cermak