Mount Lebanon, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

236
FXUS61 KPBZ 111838
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
238 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The lake effect showers will persist through Saturday.
High pressure then returns for Sunday as dry weather is expected. By
Monday, expect the chance for severe weather followed by a cold snap
on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Lake effect showers expected through Saturday.
- High temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees below normal
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Northwest flow has setup since an upper trough axis moved to the
northeast. This will allow some lake effect showers to continue into
the afternoon with some differential heating as high temperatures
will warm into the lower 50s this afternoon. This will still be 5 to
10 degrees below normal.

The continued northwest flow will be amplified as the surface as the
low pressure system currently over North Carolina passes this region
to the south and then swings up the east coast, keeping most of the
precip to the east. Lake effect showers are expected to continue
with the northwest flow into tomorrow. The HREF precip amounts keep
only about 20%-30% chance of greater than 0.25 inches in Greene,
Preston, Tucker, and Monongalia Counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions Saturday night and continuing through Sunday.
- Slight chance of precip Sunday night.
- Potential of Severe Weather on Monday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

There is the potential of a few stray showers Saturday evening along
the Laurels. This is expected to dissipate by Sunday morning as high
pressure is expected to move into the region late tomorrow night.
Temperatures are expected to return to normal values by Sunday as
highs return to highs near 60 degrees. Dry conditions are expected
during the day.

By Sunday night, another low pressure system will lift northeast
into the Great Lakes with the warm front lifting north of the
forecast area Sunday night. This will bring a slight chance of
showers to the area with a 10% to 15% chance of a 0.05 inches of
rainfall or greater. Once the showers pass, the region will be in
the warm sector by Monday morning.

Monday will bring the potential of severe weather as a stout cold
front swings through the forecast area Monday late
afternoon/evening. The ensemble forecast indicates that the surface
based CAPE heading into this event is around 500 J/Kg or less,
however, the proximity of the front and the low center will make
this event one to watch. If there is any clearing in the warm
sector, there will be a huge difference in the available
instability, especially since temperatures will already be in the
low 70s (roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal). The ensembles
suggest the CWASP will register around 50 to 60 for Monday
also hinting at the potential for severe weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A few snow showers possible Tuesday night.
- Dry conditions Wednesday through Thursday afternoon.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday night, the cold front will pass through the area leading to
another cold snap. This will make for a few instances of post
frontal showers and even a few snow showers for Tuesday night. There
is not expected to be any significant accumulation as ground
temperatures will still be quite warm after highs on Monday. High
pressure will then infiltrate the region keep dry conditions in
place for Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for rain will come
Thursday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly MVFR ceilings are ongoing this afternoon except for
terminals near the ridges and north of I-80 (FKL, DUJ, LBE, MGW)
where a mix of IFR/LIFR continues. Little additional improvement
is expected through the remainder of this afternoon before
widespread IFR (potentially LIFR at the aforementioned trouble
spots) returns overnight. Improvement is once again expected
Saturday morning, but only to MVFR for most.

ZZV continues to be an outlier given its location farther west
and on the periphery of the lowest stratus. Maintained MVFR
there through tonight and into Saturday morning, but hi-res
ensemble probabilities suggest as high as a 50-70% chance that
it breaks into VFR at least briefly overnight before dropping
back to MVFR Saturday morning.

Winds remain light and generally out of the north throughout the
TAF period.

Outlook...
Restrictions are likely to continue, along with rain and snow
showers, through Saturday night as an upper low drifts across
the region. VFR returns Sunday under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lupo
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger/Lupo
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/Lupo
LONG TERM...Shallenberger/Lupo
AVIATION...Cermak