Mount Lebanon, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

077
FXUS61 KPBZ 232141
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
441 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather returns Sunday under high pressure. Rain chances
increase again on Monday and Monday night with a crossing cold
front. An unsettled weather pattern then returns from mid to
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Precipitation tapers off this evening
- Patchy light rain possible tonight in warm advection
------------------------------------------------------------------

Coverage area of light showers and drizzle continues to
decrease this evening as ridging begins to build across the
region. Warm advection will ensue overnight with building
heights and flow backing more westerly. Overrruning will allow
for patchy light rain overnight, but no significant QPF is
expected.

Overcast and humid conditions with increasing warm advection
will keep overnight lows roughly 5-10 degrees above average --
mid to upper 30s for most of the lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry Sunday
- Rain returns Monday and Monday night with a cold front
-------------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley region on
Sunday, resulting in a gradual clearing trend and dry weather.
Continued flat upper ridging, ahead of a Central CONUS trough,
will maintain the dry weather Sunday night. The digging trough
will track eastward early in the week, as a surface low develops
in response across the Midwest. This low will track across the
Great Lakes/Ontario region by late Monday, pulling a cold front
across the area.

Rain chances will increase through the day as the front
approaches, and jet enhanced ascent occurs. This rain will
continue Monday night as the front completes its passage.
Rainfall amounts are expected to range from a quarter to a half
of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain/snow chances Tuesday with an upper trough
- Mainly dry Wednesday
- Rain/snow chances return by late week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The lingering upper trough, and cold NW flow, will result in
rain and snow chances mainly north of PIT on Tuesday, before the
trough exits. Surface high pressure under broad troughing aloft
should maintain dry weather and cooler than average
temperatures on Wednesday.

Model ensembles indicate a trough will advance out of the Plains
region Wednesday, as a surface low develops across the TN
Valley region. Increasing moisture and ascent in southwest flow
ahead of the trough, and on the northern side of the developing
surface low, will return rain and snow chances to the region
Wednesday night and Thursday. Operational models differ on the
positioning of the surface low, and the northern extent of any
precipitation. Stayed close to the ensemble blends for the
Thanksgiving forecast, with uncertainty in the details.

Rain and snow become more likely Thursday night and Friday as
the initial trough crosses the region, and another approaches
from the northwest. Overall, temperatures will average below
seasonable levels through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northwest flow continues to bring rain showers and pockets of
drizzle off the lakes and into the region. As of 18z much of this
activity has moved north and west of PIT, but rain and drizzle
continue for FKL, DUJ and LBE.  There can be pockets of drizzle for
other terminals through the afternoon and overnight hours. However,
confidence in areal and temporal coverage of these pockets remains
low at this time and much of the TAF period is expected to be
largely dry.

Latest guidance suggests a continued bouncing nature of most CIGs
through the TAF period. Generally most CIGs are forecast to see some
improvement between now and 06z and a general degradation
thereafter. Most terminals are then expected to see CIGs on the rise
again close to midday Sunday. Models have slowly backed off of
widespread clearing and high-res guidance suggests that all area
terminals remain in MVFR CIGs through the entire TAF period with
probabilities of CIGs <3000 ft remaining largely above 80% through
18z Sunday.

Outlook...
Some area terminals could break into VFR CIGs late Sunday
afternoon (with ZZV being the most likely). VFR is not expected
to be long lived anywhere however, as restriction chances return
later Monday into Tuesday with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...WM/88
LONG TERM...WM/88
AVIATION...AK