Lower Paxton, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

229
FXUS61 KCTP 201612
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1212 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Humid with scattered rain showers and few strong/gusty
  thunderstorms possible this afternoon
* Multi-day rain-free dry spell with comfortably low humidity
  and refreshingly cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday
* Hot and humid conditions return by late week with moderate to
  major Heatrisk Thursday into Saturday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC cold front stretched from near KROC to KERI at 1530Z with
weak llvl shear/convergence and somewhat unimpressive CAPE
values so far.

SFC trough extending from near KBGM to KIPT then SW to near
KUNV and KLBE looks to be the prime weather maker today as sfc
dewpoints of 70+F reside to the south of this subtle, pre-
frontal wind shift line with somewhat thinnish, SFC Based CAPE
of 2000-2500 J/KG on the regional soundings.

The best combination of deep layer shear and forcing beneath the
Left Exit region of an 80+ KT jet headed our way from the
Ohio Valley will be across the NE 1/4 of the CWA through 21Z.
afterward, weaker and less organized convection (mainly showers)
will accompany and precede the Cfropa during the mid to late
afternoon.

Sent a blanket SPS for our NE zones a few hours ago to indicate
the potential/timing of a few strong to potentially severe TSRA.

The aforementioned area of stronger storms in our CWA is highlighted
by a level 1/MRGL severe t-storm risk by SPC while areas just
to the east across the Poconos remains in a level 2/SLGT risk.

Pertinent part of the early morning discussion follows...
Perhaps the read- through or key takeaway is -

*limited coverage of convective precip* through the afternoon
with a few strong to marginally severe storms possible. HREF
composite reflectivity max >40dBZ also seems to suggest this
will be the case.

*Progressive storm motions 25-30kt from NW->SE and neutral to bearish
 trending PWATs generally do not support an excessive rain risk
 or short term flooding threat. The hires ensemble data shows
 POPs quickly trending AOB 10% in the 00-03Z window; drying out
 nicely across the vast majority of CPA overnight into early
 Monday AM.

Max temps this afternoon will be seasonably warm downslope of
the Allegheny Mtns with highs 85-90F. Tonight will be the 1st
of 3 comfortably cool nights (the first run in quite some time)
across CPA. Fcst min temps are 10-15F lower than last night
(daybreak Sunday) in the low 50s across the NW Alleghenies. Some
low clouds and areas of fog may develop over the western high
terrain into early Monday morning. Lows in the mid to upper 60s
will still be sticky/muggy in the Lower Susq Valley, but relief
is on the way!

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Stellar stretch of late July wx expected for early this week
with a noticeably refreshing change in the mid summer airmass.
1020+mb high pressure will be to thank delivering mostly sunny
and rain-free days with low humidity followed by comfortably
cool nights good for campfires and sleeping with the windows
open!

We were keen to manually adjust Td lower Monday afternoon based
on pattern recognition and dry air mixing signal in the
sounding profiles.

Highs on Monday will be about 3-8 degrees cooler vs. Sunday,
but the most noticeable/refreshing change will be to overnight
temps which should dip into the 50s in most locations Monday
night with even some mid to upper 40s in the northern tier!
Under favorable radiational conditions, the cooler min temps
should trigger the 20-25F water-air threshold and allow fog to
form in some of the river and stream valleys.

Temps should reach a nadir Monday night with a neutral/flat
trend on Tuesday before printing a higher low Tuesday night.
This will signal an impending return to sweltering heat poised
to return for late week into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Add 5-10 degrees to max temps and 10+ to dewpoints by Wednesday.
So trending warmer and more humid into midweek, but still high
confidence in no precip.

Model and ensemble data show a building heat dome/590+dm 500mb
ridge expanding over the area for late week into the weekend.
This will translate into a return of hot/humid late July
sensible wx conditions. Heatrisk ramps up to moderate to major
with heat index values fcst to approach or reach the century
mark. This will be something to monitor in the coming days.

Some isolated/scattered airmass or terrain induced convection
is possible beneath the upper level ridge Thu/Fri, but higher
POPs lean toward next weekend tied to the arrival of the next
frontal system/upper level trough.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lingering MVFR/IFR ceilings into the early afternoon across the
Laurel Highlands and also across the region east of a KSEG to
KMUI line before rising to VFR or high end MVFR (SW Mtns) by
the mid early afternoon.

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during
the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, but with low
confidence on timing and placement, we have maintained PROB30s
at all TAF sites for now. If any thunderstorms move directly
over any airfields, brief reductions in visibility and gusty
winds will be possible. Outside of any thunderstorms, west-
northwest winds will gust to 20-25 knots this afternoon.

Rain chances will come to an end after 00Z as the cold front
exits the area and northwesterly flow will lead to clearing
skies east of the Allegheny Front. Some low clouds may develop
to the west, with BFD and JST being most likely to see MVFR
restrictions (40-60% chance).

Outlook...

Mon-Wed...VFR with mainly dry conditions.

Thu...Mainly dry. Perhaps a shower or storm across the
west late.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Bauco