Falls, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

022
FXUS61 KBGM 111956
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
356 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track up the east coast tonight into Saturday
bringing a mix of rain and snow to the area. Brief high pressure
builds in behind it early next week. However, several cold
frontal boundaries and additional chances for showers move in
for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

345 PM Update

Main concern in this period is a developing coastal low that
will bring a period of steady rain and higher elevation snow to
the area tonight into Saturday. Winter weather advisories have
been issued for the Catskills and Pocono region of NE PA where 2
to 6 inches of snow are expected to fall over the higher elevations.

Model trends have been for the mid level and surface low to
track further north tonight into Saturday. With a closed 700mb
low now forecast to track near Philadelphia, then over NJ on
Saturday this will bring higher QPF amounts further north into
the eastern portion of our CWA. QPF amounts over the next 24
hours is now expected to be between a half inch to one inch over
the Catskills and Poconos, diminishing to around a quarter inch
across CNY along the I-81 corridor...then less than a quarter
inch further west/north. With a close mid and upper level low it
now appears likely this system will produce enough dynamical
cooling, to change the rain over to wet snow late this evening,
with snow expanding over a good portion of the CWA late tonight
into Saturday morning. 850mb temperatures will be around -2C,
with 925mb temperatures gradually falling to around -2C by
daybreak Saturday as well. Forecast soundings from the 12z NAM
and HRRR models show just enough dynamical cooling in the
boundary layer for a changeover to snow across Sullivan,
Delaware, Pike and Wayne counties. Exactly when the changeover
will occur is slightly uncertain...but sometime between about 11
PM and 4 AM is favored in most guidance. The changeover will
occur first across the hilltops, potentially reaching the valley
floors toward daybreak Saturday. Strong lift in the 500-800mb
layer is modeled, especially on the NAM.Greatest uncertainty
will be snow ratios, and how efficiently the snow will
accumulate in and around the winter weather advisory zones. If
temperatures end up just a degree or two colder, ratios, and
therefore snow amounts could end up higher...and vice versa. The
Wyoming Valley region is a particularly tricky forecast; and
snowfall amounts look to vary greatly over short distances and
elevation changes here. In the immediate river valley(s) the
most likely scenario is for a non-accumulating rain/snow mix
Saturday morning...but once again, if it ends up just slightly
colder...more snow would mix in and some minor accumulations
could even occur in the valley itself. Surrounding high terrain
of eastern Lackawanna and Luzerne counties could easily see 1 to
4 inches of wet snow from this system. Coverage and confidence
in these amounts was not high enough for an advisory in these
two counties at this time; but something to watch closely in the
observed trends this evening.

Taking the deterministic GFS and NAM verbatim gives a good upper
end scenario. This model guidance is showing 5 to 10 inches of
snow over the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos by
early Saturday afternoon. While still a relatively low
probability that these amounts will be reach, this is a higher
end plausible scenario...being highly dependent on surface
temperatures. The low gradually exits Saturday afternoon, with
the precipitation tapering off to scattered rain and snow
showers for the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures
are cool, only in the upper 30s to 40s for most locations.

Areas west of I-81 are not expected to see much if any snowfall
from this system...as the lighter intensity precipitation and
less vertical lift should keep precip type mainly rain here
overnight and through the day on Saturday. Some light snow
accumulations are expected across Susquehanna, Broome, Otsego
and Chenango counties...mainly across the higher elevations,
where up to 2 inches of wet snow may fall.

The weather starts to quiet down by Saturday night, with just a
few lingering showers that gradually end late at night. It will
be cool, with lows in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM Update:

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure moves in on Sunday
as the low pressure system departs to the east. This will result
in a return to dry weather along with near normal temperatures
(highs in the 50s). Some morning clouds may be around, but skies
will gradually clear, allowing for partly to mostly sunny skies
by the afternoon.

A weak shortwave may spark a few isolated rain and snow showers
Sunday night west of I-81, but this system will be moisture-
starved and therefore conditions for most of the area should
remain mostly dry. Lows are expected to be in the mid to upper
30s for most of the area.

A southerly flow will develop on Monday, which will allow warmer
air to move into the area. Highs are expected to be in the upper
50s to mid 60s along with partly sunny skies. An approaching
cold front will bring increasing clouds during the afternoon and
perhaps a few isolated rain showers (mainly west of I-81). That
being said, the majority of showers should hold off until Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM Update:

The above mentioned cold front will move through the area
Monday night which will bring more widespread showers and
potentially a few isolated thunderstorms in the evening. A
secondary cold front follows shortly after on Tuesday as an
upper trough digs into the east coast. This will allow showers
to continue Tuesday with much cooler air filtering in behind the
front. Precipitation will be mainly rain showers during the day
Tuesday, before some snow showers mix in Tuesday night. A
continued northwest flow will bring some additional scattered
rain showers to Central NY on Wednesday, before high pressure
moves back in Thursday, bringing a brief return to dry weather.
Then the next upper low may bring some more showers to the area
on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR, MVFR fuel alternate and a period of IFR restrictions
likely through the taf period. Some light rain, drizzle and
pockets of fog will persist over the area into this evening,
with associated restrictions expected.

More widespread rain and snow looks to move into all terminals
except KSYR, ELM overnight. KBGM and KAVP have the best chance
to mix with or change over to wet snow into Saturday morning.
Where snow mixes in visibilities could easily fall to IFR or
lower...even some IFR restrictions in the steady rain as well.

The steady rain and snow will taper off to showers by Saturday
afternoon with some minor improvement back to MVFR/MVFR fuel
alternate areawide.


Outlook...

Saturday evening and Saturday night...Lingering restrictions
likely with light rain, snow and drizzle around.

Sunday....Lingering restrictions possible in the morning, then
likely becoming VFR.

Monday...Likely VFR.

Tuesday...Scattered rain showers may bring occasional
restrictions.

Wednesday...Scattered rain and snow showers possible with
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for PAZ040-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MJM/MWG