Salem, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

774
FXUS66 KPQR 141252
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
452 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Periods of light rain today as a frontal boundary lifts
northward across the area. Mostly dry on Sunday as low pressure
stalls off the northern California coast. A deeper upper level
trough will bring more unsettled weather to the region early next
week as snow levels lower to around 1500 ft. Cool and showery
weather likely continues through the end of next week as troughing
persists over the region, but confidence remains low in exact
details regarding higher elevation snowfall amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Now through Monday Night...Water vapor satellite
imagery this morning shows a deep, positively tilted upper level
trough offshore with moisture streaming over southwest Oregon. A
stalled frontal boundary will slowly lift north returning light rain
to much of the area into this evening. Most locations will see
around a tenth of an inch or less of precipitation, except in Lane
County where amounts up to a quarter to half inch will be possible
through tonight. Snow levels in the Cascades remain relatively high,
at around 4000-5000 ft. Cascade passes may see an additional 1-3
inches of snowfall.

By Sunday, much of the forecast area will be sitting in between
systems within a saddle point in the upper level flow. This will
likely maintain mostly dry conditions through the end of the
weekend. A reinforcing trough then drops south from Alaska on
Monday, forcing the cut-off low into California and sending a cold
front into western Oregon. This upper trough will be accompanied by
cooler air aloft, bringing unstable and showery conditions to the
Pacific NW on Monday. Snow levels are expected to fall to around
1500-2000 ft over the Coast Range and south Washington Cascade
foothills. At this time, there is just a 10-30% chance of advisory
level snowfall in both the Coast Range and Cascades through Monday
night. /DH

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...There remains very good
agreement among ensembles for an anomalously deep upper level trough
over the Pacific NW on Tuesday. Cooler air aloft will be ushered in
as ensembles suggest 850 mb temperatures are likely to fall to
around -4 to -6 C. Low pressure becomes vertically stacked off the
north Oregon coast which should maintain showery, unsettled weather.
At this time, QPF amounts do not appear too impressive with some
light snow accumulations above 1500 ft.

Active weather is expected to continue through next week as upper
level troughing remains likely over the region. The highest
probabilities for more substantial Cascade snow remain later in the
week, Thursday into Friday with around a 30-50% chance of exceeding
12 inches in 24 hours. There is also around a 10-20% chance of
exceeding 4 inches of snowfall Thursday through Thu night at pass
level in the Coast Range, including highway 6 and 26. Colder
temperatures in the morning and overnight could also allow a few
snow showers to reach the valley floor later in the week, but
accumulating snow is very unlikely. /DH

&&

.AVIATION...Moist, southwest flow aloft continues today as a
frontal boundary remains over southern parts of the forecast area.
As of 10z, a line of showers moving onshore is producing MVFR
conditions at the coast. By 12z, expect conditions to improve to
predominately VFR as cooler temperatures mix the environment.
Conditions inland remain a mix of MVFR and VFR, with a few pockets
of shallow LIFR fog where clearing has generally occurred,
including at KHIO. This frontal boundary will begin to lift
northward, spreading light rain across more of the area later
today. Chances for MVFR at KONP increase to around 40-50% by 18z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions as of 10z Saturday. But, with
clearing occurring, this brings a 10-20% chance for fog or low
stratus to develop, potentially dropping conditions into IFR
toward the 14-18z time period this morning. Light rain returns
after 18z, with CIGs more likely (60-70% chance) in lower-end VFR.
Probabilities for MVFR increase after 00z Sunday. Light and
variable winds generally becoming northwest this afternoon. /DH

&&

.MARINE...Low pressure develops off the northern California coast
today while high pressure builds well offshore. This will turn
winds north to northeasterly across the coastal waters today.
Winds around 15 kt or less this morning will increase through this
evening with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the outer coastal waters,
strongest south of Cascade Head. Northerly winds continue on
Sunday, gradually easing through Sunday night. A west-
northwesterly swell producing seas of around 13 ft early this
morning will continue to gradually subside, falling to around 9 to
10 ft this afternoon and continuing into Sunday. Will maintain the
Small Craft Advisory for all waters through this afternoon, with
the outer coastal waters continuing through tonight.

A cold front will approach the waters early Monday bringing more
westerly winds and active weather. Weak low pressure drops south
toward the north Oregon coast on Tuesday. Winds likely remain
below advisory thresholds, but another northwesterly swell is
expected to build seas again to around 13 to 15 ft on Tuesday.
Active weather continues with around a 20% chance of marginal
gale force wind gusts late next week. /DH

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A high threat for sneaker persists through
Sunday evening due to a long period westerly swell. Waves can run
up significantly farther on a beach than normal, including over
rocks and jetties. Sneaker waves can suddenly knock people off of
their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may
lead to serious injury or drowning. Caution should be used when in
or near the water, especially those who will be razor clamming.
Keep children and pets away from the surf zone. Keep off of
jetties, rocks and logs near the surf zone. If you see someone
swept into the sea do not swim in after them. Call 911 and keep an
eye on them until help arrives.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ210-
     251>253.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ271>273.
&&


$$

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