Canby, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

538
FXUS66 KPQR 231734
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
934 AM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers with mountain snow showers over the weekend into
early next week. Trending towards drier weather later next week
with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday...Upper and surface low center
offshore of southwest B.C. this morning. But disturbances rotating
around the low will continue to bring showers to the forecast area
through early next week. Current wave of showers now moving inland
with heaviest rain extending from interior of southwest WA to the
central OR coast range. Once this passes through by midday should see
decrease in shower activity.  But then the next batch of showers
arrive late this afternoon to the coast. Most of the rainfall is
expected at the coast, but will still see light showers inland
through tonight.

Snow levels remain around 3000-3500 ft today, then dip down 2500-3000
ft tonight into Sunday. Expect around 2 to 5 inches of snow at the
Cascade passes through tonight. Showers continue off and on at times
through Monday as the upper low does a back flip of sorts and ends up
off the central OR coast Monday afternoon. The low weakens later
Monday into Tuesday as it shifts inland with showers decreasing.

The possibility for coastal thunderstorms continues through Sunday.
Conditions still support a very low chance (<5%) of some isolated
waterspouts over the waters. But this time around conditions are
less favorable than the recent waterspout activity.

Beyond Tuesday, WPC Cluster Analysis show good agreement with upper
level ridging moving into the northeast Pacific. This should result
in dry, mild and stable conditions Wednesday through Friday. However
while all clusters show some form of troughing off the CA coast, one
cluster has about 20% of the ensemble members with a weaker ridge,
potentially opening up the PacNW to some rain. /mh


&&

.AVIATION...Satellite and radar imagery this morning shows
scattered showers across the region, likely persisting on/off the
remainder of the day. Going through the TAF period expect mainly
VFR conditions although showers may temporarily drop CIGs/VIS to
high-end MVFR. The board low pressure over the Pacific spins
another weak disturbance into the region late overnight into
Sunday morning mainly resulting in an increase in rainfall for the
coast, at least initially. Expect southerly/southeasterly winds
generally under 15 kt across the airspace. However, could see some
gusts up to 20 kt around the KONP starting around 00Z Sunday.


PDX APPROACHES...Generally VFR, with brief periods of high-end
MVFR under shower activity. Expect showers and southerly winds
under 10 kt throughout the TAF period. -Schuldt/42

&&

.MARINE...
Today through the start of next week, the weather
pattern becomes relatively benign for this time of year with no
signs of significant winds or hazardous seas. The only exception
at this time is Saturday night/Sunday as a weak small-scale
surface low moves northward over the coastal waters. This will
is expected to bring a period of stronger winds and elevated seas
for a brief period of time. There is still some uncertainty
regarding how strong winds will get, but as of right now it
appears wind gusts up to 40 kt have a 35%-50% probability.
Therefore, have issued a Gale Watch for all waters starting late
tonight. Will continue to monitor this situation as there remains
many differences between the ensembles and deterministic
guidance. Given the short duration of these stronger winds, seas
are not expected to have enough time to build towards 10 to 14 ft,
with a peak likely Sunday afternoon. Beyond Sunday, benign
conditions are expected to return with winds and seas subsiding
below 20 kt and 10 ft respectfully. /42

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ210-
     251>253-271>273.
     Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for
     PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
&&

$$

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