Altamont, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

726
FXUS66 KMFR 112128
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
228 PM PDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.DISCUSSION...Overview:

Overall, the forecast remains at a "low impact" level for the next
several days. Items of interest include the light rainfall late this
afternoon/tonight mainly across the eastside where an isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible. The other item is the
frost/freeze potential tonight and again tomorrow night with Sunday
having more coverage potential. Otherwise, we will have some breezy
days mixed in but nothing stands out for any type of advisory or
warning level. A prolong dry stretch looks to start this weekend and
continue through much of next week, so we will have to keep an eye
on fuels and the fire environment for low to moderate risks next
week.

Further Details:

Mid-level water vapor imagery indicates dry air moving onshore early
this afternoon, and while we have some moisture in the mid-levels
over the eastside, its going to be a battle of variables timing
together for convection. Deterministic models are hinting at a
couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE to upwards of 300 J/kg in some cases,
but other variables are not lining up well, especially if the dry
air wins out. Forcing may be too far east as well, but convective
temperatures could play a role on a trigger mechanism for
thunderstorms. Either way, ensembles are showing low probabilities
for lightning, so while the chance does exists early this evening
for thunderstorms, it will be a low chance around 15 to 20 percent
for thunder. We are not expecting any severe weather, but if a
thunderstorm forms it could produce some gusty winds.

The bigger story could be next week when well above normal
temperatures (10+ degrees for some areas) are forecast starting as
early as Sunday and going through much of the week, as well as the
stretch of dry weather and low minimum RH values in the afternoon.
For example, Medford could be 15+ degrees above normal on Monday
where we have a high of 81 forecast. The record for Medford on April
14th is 92, so while we will likely not hit record temps, it is
certainly a noteworthy day from a temperatures standpoint. The lack
of moisture and dry afternoon conditions will be worth monitoring as
well.

The frost/freeze potential for the Rogue Valley has again decreased
slightly from previous forecast with less areas seeing temperatures
below 32 degrees for tonight. Some of the higher elevations on the
outskirts of westside valleys may still see temps of 32 or slightly
below. Frost (~33-36) is not looking favorable from a moisture
standpoint as morning RH values may only reach 70 to 80 percent for
some westside areas which would help alleviate frost formation. That
being said, there will be areas this weekend on the westside that
could still see these frost/freeze hazards. Anyone with a garden or
agricultural interest may want to follow the forecast closely and
monitor low temperatures for your specific area. Sunday in
particular has the most areal coverage chances for frost/freeze. It
should be no surprise for the eastside that we will see widespread
freeze and hard freeze (28 or less) temperatures this weekend given
the time of year.


&&

.AVIATION...11/18Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore, VFR
conditions are expected to be the predominate condition through the
TAF period. The exception will be IFR ceilings near Brookings that
should improve to VFR towards 21z.

Inland, west of the Cascades, VFR conditions are expected through
the TAf period. The exception will be north of the Umpqua Divide,
including Roseburg, where MVFR ceilings could persist until 20z
before improving to VFR. Some evidence supports MVFR for a brief
period of time late tonight into early tomorrow morning, but
confidence is not high enough to include the lower conditions for
the Roseburg TAF. Later shifts will have to take another look at
this.

The Rogue Valley, including Medford will remain VFR, but the higher
terrain is likely to remain partly obscured until 21z. Gusty breezes
will develop this afternoon and last into this evening.

East of the Cascades, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period with gusty breezes in the afternoon through this evening.
-Petrucelli


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM Friday, April 11th...A thermal trough will
result in moderate to strong north winds during the day with the
strongest winds south of Cape Blanco. The thermal trough is likely
to remain a play maker into the weekend with winds and seas highest
south of Cape Blanco. Small craft conditions are likely into
Saturday morning, expanding into the northern waters Saturday
evening into Sunday. Hazardous seas are likely into early Saturday
afternoon for areas south of Port Orford and out to 60 nm from shore.

Winds and seas will be highest in the southern waters through the
weekend and guidance is supporting winds reaching gales near and
south of Gold Beach Saturday afternoon/evening.

There`s some signs winds will ease slightly Saturday night into
Sunday, but we`ll still likely have at least Small Craft conditions,
with Hazardous Seas Warning conditions south of Port Orford.

We`ll have a brief reprieve of winds and seas Monday.

There`s fairly good moderate to north winds are in the cards Tuesday
and persist into most of next week with a "classic thermal through"
pattern that is typical of the summer months, but can sometimes
occur this time of the year. Winds will be strongest south of Cape
Blanco during this time with at least Small Craft conditions.
-Petrucelli


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-
     376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$