Weatherford, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

188
FXUS64 KOUN 171652
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1148 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions across northwestern
  Oklahoma this afternoon/evening.

- Showers & thunderstorms on Friday through Sunday with severe
  risks on Friday and Saturday with excessive rainfall potential
  on Saturday into early Sunday.

- Additional chances for scattered showers/thunderstorms toward
  the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Another windy and even hotter day under our upper ridge as our
heating trend peaks.  Afternoon temperatures generally west and
north of the I-44 corridor will be summerlike heating well into the
lower to mid 90s while the remainder of central through southeast
Oklahoma will see mid to upper 80s highs.  A surface low across
across the Central High Plains will tighten the pressure gradient
across our area further increasing our southerly winds 25-30 mph
with higher gusts across our western CWA.  A dryline currently
stretched across eastern New Mexico will be advancing across the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this morning and to the western edge of
our CWA by the afternoon with the dryline bowing and punching into
northwest Oklahoma.  Surface winds will be veered more west-
southwest behind this afternoons dryline punch while very strong
vertical mixing behind the dryline up and into at least 700 mb flow
could produce 40-50 mph gusts or higher there as well.

Fire weather conditions will be well met this afternoon across our
west with the highest Critical to Extreme fire danger risk across
northwest Oklahoma where a Red Flag Warning will be in effect from
late this morning until sundown.  A Wind Advisory covering four
counties within the Red Flag Warning area will also be in effect.
The fire danger across the remainder of western Oklahoma and
adjacent northern Texas will still have a Near Critical fire danger
risk with the drier air nearby and gusty southwest winds. The fire
danger risk will decrease after sundown as the dryline retreats and
RH values increase.  It will still be windy overnight and at least
partial mixing into a strengthening low-level jet will keep the
winds gusty as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

We`ll go from fire weather to convective severe weather during the
short term period.  A bit cooler but still warm in the 80s on Friday
afternoon due to increasing cloud cover from this next system
approaching.  A deep upper trough will digging be across the
Southwestern U.S. reaching the Southern High Plains by late
Saturday.  This system will be pushing a surface low and boundary
(cold front) into northwest Oklahoma after sunrise Friday morning
and merging into the dryline.  Expecting lower 60`s dewpoints in the
moderately unstable warm moist sector ahead of the cold front,
although strong capping should inhibit triggering any convection
through much of the afternoon.  Toward the evening hours, convection
will likely start initiating just above the boundary layer/low-level
cap along the front across our northwestern CWA.  Storm coverage
will continue to expand across the rest of our area as the slow
moving cold front pushes through during the evening and overnight.
Up to moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be
sufficient to produce organized severe thunderstorms with all of our
forecast area ahead of the cold front at initiation time in the
highest (slight) severe risk with a lower (marginal) risk behind it.
Severe hazards for late Friday into overnight will be large hail and
damaging downburst wind gusts.

By Saturday afternoon expecting the cold front to be through much of
our area and pushing into southeast Oklahoma and half-way across our
north Texas counties.  Will see the severe risk ahead of the cold
front with the same hazards.   A series of mid-level shortwaves
ejected downstream from the approaching trough will also produce
additional rain showers and a non-severe elevated storms across our
entire area keeping Saturday and Saturday night wet. Periods of
heavy rainfall in short durations especially due to storm training
to already wet saturated ground could result in excessive rainfall
leading to flash flooding as Saturday progresses into Sunday.  Storm
total QPF showing 3-4 inches in areas east and south of the I-44
corridor, so east-central through southeast Oklahoma may have a
greater potential for excessive rain/flooding risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Flooding risk remains across our southeast CWA on Sunday as this
storm system exits to the east ending all POPs by the evening. South
winds return Monday with quiet zonal flow aloft keeping our area dry
with milder temperatures for the early part of the week.  Rain/storm
chances return mid-week as weak upper trough comes through.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Gusty south-southwest winds will continue through the period,
with KWWR seeing gusts up to 35 kt this afternoon. A cold front
will start to move into northern Oklahoma Friday morning. LLWS
will affect each TAF late tonight into Friday morning. LLWS height
will be as low as 500 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  81  54  61 /  10  30  90  80
Hobart OK         65  84  50  64 /  10  30  90  50
Wichita Falls TX  66  86  59  73 /  10  20  90  80
Gage OK           56  78  41  57 /   0  20  50  20
Ponca City OK     67  80  50  59 /  10  40  90  70
Durant OK         65  84  67  76 /   0  30  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014-015.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...13