Stillwater, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

953
FXUS64 KOUN 150740
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
240 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

 - Daily severe weather chances begin Friday and will continue
   through early next week.

 - Above normal temperatures will continue well into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

A cold front will continue to make its way through the area this
morning, which will knock high temperatures down 10-15 degrees
from yesterday`s high temperatures. There is a signal for showers
and thunderstorms along/ahead of the frontal boundary this
morning, primarily across portions of western north Texas and
southern Oklahoma. The aforementioned cold front will weaken as it
pushes just south of the Red River, so we may see weak southerly
winds return across southern portions of the area. That being
said, thunderstorm activity across southern and southeastern
Oklahoma may persist into the afternoon and evening hours.
Overnight lows tonight will get down to the upper 50s to low 60s
across the area as cloud cover diminishes after sunset.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

On Friday, a mid-level trough will advance through the central
and northern Plains, which will bring another weak front across
the most of the area. Afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees
warmer than Thursday`s high temperatures, so there won`t be much
relief from this frontal boundary. Further to the south near the
Red River, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will foster MUCAPE
values of 3000- 4000 J/kg. There is a low chance for thunderstorms
to develop within this vicinity. Strong to severe storms are
possible if a storm can mature quickly enough. Large hail and
damaging winds are the main hazards, although a tornado cannot be
ruled out.

Shortwave mid-level ridging will move in briefly Saturday before
a shortwave trough overspreads the southern Plains during the
afternoon and evening. The surface response will be strengthening
low-level southerly winds and attendant moisture advection. Upper
60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected to make it to at least
central Oklahoma by Saturday evening, and low 60s dewpoints up to
the KS/OK border. Within the open warm sector will exist the
potential for severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening,
capable of all hazards.

Bunker


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Thunderstorm chances and additional severe storm potential will
exist late in the weekend through the early portions of next week.
Numerous rounds of severe weather are expected as a longwave mid-
level wave meanders to the west, and the subtropical jet impinges
on the southern Plains.

On Sunday, moisture advection will help mid to upper 60s
dewpoints make it to the KS/OK border by the early afternoon. A
subtropical jet maxima will overspread the southern Plains Sunday
afternoon and evening, which may provide the necessary lift for
severe thunderstorm development along a dryline. The parameter
space ahead of the dryline will support severe storms capable of
all hazards.

The main forcing is expected to move across the southern Plains
Monday into Tuesday. Severe storms are possible again Monday into
Tuesday morning as the kinematics and thermodynamics will be in
place to support all hazards. With stronger forcing for ascent
owing to the approaching wave, confidence in thunderstorm
development appear likely at this time. There are some model
solutions that suggest that additional forcing moves across the
area by Tuesday afternoon, which could extend severe weather
chances into Tuesday afternoon. Will need to monitor these trends
as we get into the weekend.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities are expected to continue.

Light southerly winds will shift to the northwest tomorrow
morning. These winds will shift back toward the south late
afternoon.

There is a chance high-based showers and thunderstorms may impact
KDUA tomorrow morning into the early afternoon. PROB30 was
maintained to account for this.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  61  87  60 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         83  57  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  86  63  90  63 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           83  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     81  56  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         86  68  90  66 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...10