Stillwater, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

854
FXUS64 KOUN 201800
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
100 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

 - Dangerous heat expected today and Monday.

 - Rain chances will be very low through the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

A 594 dam mid-level ridge continues to dominate the weather
across the Southern Plains today. The 24-hour temperature change
are 0 to 3 deg F at most locations, so high temperatures will
generally be the same to a little higher than yesterday. Dew
points are higher at most locations as well with some moisture
advection (the exception being across southeast Oklahoma). As a
result, heat indices will range from ~100 to 108 deg F this
afternoon.

Breezy southerly winds are helping temper the wet bulb globe
temperatures; however, abundant solar insolation is helping offset
this affect. Overall, high to extreme heat risk is expected near
and southeast of I-44 this afternoon. Bottom line: it`s another
hot and humid one today.

There is a low chance (10%) of isolated, high-based showers and
thunderstorms across northwest Oklahoma late this afternoon.
Forecast soundings indicate an uncapped, deeply-mixed environment
as temperatures rise above 100 deg F. If showers/thunderstorms
develop, there likely will not be much rain that reaches the
surface owing to evaporation into a dry boundary layer. The
evaporation of precipitation (virga) may result in some gusty
winds at the surface.

For tonight, breezy southerly winds will result in another warm
night with low temperatures only falling into the mid to upper 70s
deg F.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Monday will be another hot and humid day with the summertime
ridge continuing to influence the weather across Oklahoma and
north Texas. A Heat Advisory was issued for the entire area Monday
afternoon with similar conditions expected to today. Heat indices
are expected to range from ~105 to 110 deg F.

Once again, there is a low chance (~10%) of showers and
thunderstorms across northwest Oklahoma in a deepy-mixed and hot
environment. If showers/storms develop, gusty winds will be the
potential hazard.

The ridge is forecast to shift a little to the east on Tuesday,
which may result in slightly less hot weather--especially across
western Oklahoma. Dew points may also lower a little bit. As a
result, heat indices may come down a few degrees Tuesday. However,
it is important to note it`ll still be hot. Therefore, those who
plan to spend extended periods of outdoors should continue to take
heat precautions.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Models continue trend of retrograding upper ridge by midweek with
area coming under more of an influence from shortwave coming up from
Mexico. This may provide portions of western Oklahoma and north
Texas a chance of rainfall, however precip chances with NBM are
currently is confined to northwest Oklahoma and points west
Wednesday night. This will be something to watch.

Trends by later in the week continue to shrink ridge back to the
southeast with additional rain chances, mainly across northwest
Oklahoma. This may take a degree or two off the highs, but may also
bring in some higher dewpoints once again, leading to potential for
additional heat headlines.

As the eastern ridge weakens, models are showing the western ridge
developing and this may then take hold by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Gusty southerly winds will diminish this evening with VFR ceilings
prevailing throughout the period. LLWS is anticipated at most
terminals by early Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  96  77  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         77 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  77 100  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           77 101  73  98 /  10  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     76  97  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         76  97  76  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>008-010>013-
     017>020-023>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-085-086-089-
     090.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01