Shawnee, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

758
FXUS64 KOUN 231109
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
509 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 453 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

- Warm weekend.

- Cold front arrives Sunday night with cooler temperatures for
  early next week.

- Next rain chances possibly by Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

South winds have returned to the area overnight and as next storm
system comes on shore across the west and lee troughing continues to
deepen south winds will pick up today. This along with veered low
level flow and abundant sunshine, other than some high clouds, will
result in warmer temperatures across Oklahoma and north Texas today.

Dewpoints will also begin to increase as the south winds transport
increasing moisture northward, especially by tonight as dewpoints
rise into the 50s. This will keep overnight temperatures much warmer
than the last several days. A bit of an exception will be the
northwest where a psuedo-dryline will be located keeping dewpoints
lower and overnight low will drop into the 40s. Still warmer than
recent nights. Elsewhere lows will bottom out in the low/mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 215 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

As we go through the day Sunday, upper storm system across the west
will begin to shift east through the central and northern Rockies.
As this occurs, lee trough and associated surface low will begin to
translate east. Low level flow  to the south of the low will become
even more veered bringing in much warmer low level airmass off the
higher terrain to our west, resulting in a very warm afternoon. Much
of the area will climb into the 70s with the possibility of a few
low 80s across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

As we go into Sunday night and the aforementioned surface low
continues to move east, a cold front will surge southward in its
wake, bringing much cooler air into the area beginning Sunday night
with lows approach freezing across northwest Oklahoma by Monday
morning. The front should clear the area by early Monday morning
with brisk north winds and temperatures some 15 to 20 degrees cooler
for daytime highs. There will be a bit of a wind chill, especially
in the morning with values in the 30s across the north and 40s
across much of the remainder of Oklahoma. Some recovery is expected
by afternoon as wind speeds gradually decrease.

With much of the upper forcing remaining well north of the area and
what moisture we do have being rather shallow, still anticipate a
dry frontal passage to occur.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Large surface high settles south over the area for Tuesday with a
possible freeze that morning across much of the area and a cool day
with light and variable winds shifting to the south during the day
as the high shifts east. A bit of a warm up on Wednesday ahead of
quick moving storm system that will bring another cold front south
through the area Wednesday night. Although currently the forecast is
dry will need to watch for some low rain chances to return and
perhaps the possibility of some light snow for late Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Colder airmass behind this front should bring a freeze to much of
the area Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

South winds increase this morning with gusts of 20-25kts by late
morning. Some high clouds will be present off and on through the
forecast period. Strengthening LLJ will create LLWS at all sites
this evening even as surface winds continue to be gusty through
the night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  54  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         68  51  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  73  54  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           66  42  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     66  51  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         70  53  75  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30