Shawnee, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

505
FXUS64 KOUN 040649
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
149 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon
  across portions of western Oklahoma due to breezy, warm, and
  dry conditions.

- Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and
  evening.

- Much cooler temperatures will arrive behind a cold front on
  Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Two main concerns today will be elevated fire weather in northwest /
western Oklahoma and a conditional risk for strong storms in
southwest Oklahoma / western north Texas. Both will be driven
largely by a dryline pushing into western / central Oklahoma.

Fire Weather: In northwest Oklahoma, where fuels are still in the
75th to 89th percentile, elevated RFTIs will be largely driven by
low RH values (low to mid teens). Winds will be a limiting factor
with speeds in the 8-13 mph range expected. Increasing cirrus will
also be a limiting factor.

RFTIs will be higher in southwest Oklahoma under the axis of
stronger winds (running from southwest Oklahoma into central
Oklahoma). That said, greenup will be a limiting factor in this
region.

Storms: CAMs suggest a few isolated storms initiating off the
dryline late this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances in
southwest Oklahoma / north Texas. Environment looks to support
elevated storms capable of damaging winds and large hail. Capping
will be a limiting factor both in coverage and storm severity.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A cold front is forecast to enter northwest Oklahoma by midnight
Monday night, approaching I-44 by dawn, and pushing into southeast
Oklahoma by mid afternoon. This will bring both storm chances
(southeast Oklahoma) and much colder temperatures.

Cold: Tuesday`s cold front will result in a strong temperature
gradient across the forecast area, with highs in the 50s / 60s
across northern Oklahoma to highs in the 70s / 80s across southern
Oklahoma and north Texas.

This gradient will continue Wednesday as westerly surface flow helps
keep north Texas on the warm side. Northwest Oklahoma will have the
potential to see frost or freezing temperatures Wednesday night.
Latest NBM probs have us in the 30-50% ranges for reaching freezing
temperatures.

Storms: The front will serve as a focus for storms Tuesday afternoon
as it enters southeast Oklahoma. The environment would support
severe hazards. That said, there is a question whether storms
initiate within our southeast counties or are limited to areas south
and east of our forecast area.

Additional showers and a few storms will be possible across northern
Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday as a shortwave moves across
the central plains.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Synoptic uncertainty during the late week period remains high. In
broad strokes, we`re looking a mild Thursday followed by a warming
trend into the weekend. Most models keep us dry Thursday through
Saturday, but there are a few members that bring precipitation on
Saturday (low chances).

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category throughout
the entire forecast period. Gusty surface and strong low-level
winds will be the main issue across our terminals overnight as the
surface isobars will remain tight along with a strong southerly
low-level jet. Surface winds will stay gusty overnight out of the
south up to 15 kts sustained while at least partial mixing into
the low-level jet could keep gusts around 20-25 kts. Will maintain
low-level wind shear through 17Z when the low-level jet starts
weakening a bit. After 18Z will see surface winds across
terminals KCSM & KWWR start veering more westerly as a
dryline/surface boundary off the TX/OK Panhandles starts advancing
into western Oklahoma. Meanwhile expect south/southwest winds
sustained at 20 kts gusting 30-35 kts by 18Z across the rest of
our terminals all east of the dryline. Another strong low-level
jet strengthens early Monday evening with a return of low-level
wind shear into most terminals by 00Z. Surface winds back more
southerly remaining breezy and gusty after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  63  66  48 /  10  10   0  10
Hobart OK         95  61  69  47 /  10  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  93  69  76  52 /  10  10   0  10
Gage OK           91  51  64  41 /   0   0  10  30
Ponca City OK     86  57  63  46 /  10  30  10  30
Durant OK         83  71  84  57 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...68