Ponca City, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

265
FXUS64 KOUN 141835
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
135 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Cool, below to near normal temperatures expected through early
  this week before heat and humidity returns.

- Increased widespread rain chances will return late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The front has pushed southward into Texas this morning and most of
the showers and storm activity now remains south of the forecast
area. Throughout the day today, additional scattered weak showers
may continue to develop through the afternoon hours with weak west
northwest flow aloft, but most of the activity will be short-lived
with little to no instability or shear. Could a few areas see a
brief sprinkle of rain? Yes. Will most areas remain dry the
remainder of today? Yes. Mostly cloudy skies will continue through
the day with cooler, below normal post frontal temperatures in the
70s and lower 80s.

Scattered shower chances will continue overnight tonight, mostly
across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Not expecting much
in the way of precipitation accumulation at the surface, but there
is plenty of mid-level moisture that could reach the surface for a
brief sprinkle or light rain. Temperatures tonight will be chilly
and below normal in the wake of the recent frontal passage with lows
in the upper 50s to 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Slightly cooler than normal temperatures will persist Monday with
some morning low clouds breaking through the day allowing for some
peeks of sunshine despite the continued presence of high clouds.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. As the surface high digs
into the Ozarks, light northeast east winds will veer to the east
southeast across the forecast area. A weak shortwave in the
northwest flow aloft Monday afternoon may bring scattered showers
and storms across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. A few
storms could be come strong with gusty winds and small hail. Another
shortwave later Monday evening along the higher terrain to the west
will initiate storms, but with weak steering flow and instability,
storms may weaken before reaching western Oklahoma. However, if
storms can maintain eastward into Oklahoma, strong storms capable of
gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out.

Northwesterly flow will persist Tuesday with adiabatic warming
bringing temperatures back to normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Weak surface troughing will also bring a return of southerly surface
winds and low-level moisture advection northward into Oklahoma.
Another shortwave Tuesday may bring increased shower and storm
chances to portions of northern into central Oklahoma during the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

South winds return in earnest Wednesday as pressure falls occur
across the High Plains tightening the pressure gradient across the
Plains as large upper trough moves southeast out of the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains and upper midwest. Associated
surface front will drop south and is expected to move south across
the area Thursday and Thursday night with our next chance of more
widespread rainfall. Another slight cool down is then expected for
Friday with a gradual warming trend into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Expecting MVFR ceilings to scatter and/or broken ceilings
lifting at least to a VFR category by 21Z through the rest of the
forecast period at terminals KOKC, KOUN, KLAW, KCSM, and KSPS.
Terminal KDUA in southeast Oklahoma will likely reduce to an MVFR
category through most of the forecast although their ceiling may
scatter for brief periods between 18-22Z. Our three remaining
terminals (KPNC, KSWO, and KWWR) should persist in a VFR category
through the entire forecast period. There is a 30% probability
for light rain and/or a thunderstorm at terminal KDUA between
06-12Z. Surface winds will stay out of the north at 10 kts gusting
to 15 kts through 01Z then veering northeast at 5-10 kts through
the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  81  62  88 /  10  10   0   0
Hobart OK         61  84  62  91 /  10  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  64  84  64  91 /  20  20   0   0
Gage OK           57  82  61  90 /  10   0  10  20
Ponca City OK     59  79  61  87 /   0   0   0  20
Durant OK         67  81  66  87 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68