Ponca City, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

804
FXUS64 KOUN 061945
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK
245 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Episodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue into
  the weekend, especially overnight tonight and again on Sunday
  evening. Severe weather is expected.

- Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be possible this
  evening into Saturday morning. A Flood Watch is in effect until
  12 PM Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A renewed risk for scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms will
emerge this evening into tomorrow (Saturday morning). Rather
pleasant conditions have developed in the wake of an extensive convective
line that swept through the area earlier this morning. Broken
sky cover and warming temperatures, into the upper-70s and
mid-80s, are common across the area this afternoon.

A trailing convective outflow continues to "wash out" across
northwest Texas, with a slowly warming/moistening boundary layer
migrating into portions of southern Oklahoma. A thunderstorm or
two may develop along this airmass gradient through the early
evening (assuming sufficient warming), though most locations will
remain towards sunset.

Otherwise, widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected
across the Southern High Plains during the evening, as a phasing
upper system ejects out across the Great Divide. There is strong
signal for focused thunderstorm development 1.) near/east of Raton
and 2.) across West Texas. Upscaling development in both regimes,
along with additional development along the moisture/theta
gradient, will offer concern for thunderstorms through the
evening (most likely after 5-7 PM). Large hail, damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a tornado will be a concern with this activity.
Thunderstorm mode is expected to transition towards mainly
lines/small clusters as activity moves east-southeastward across
the area into early Saturday morning. Accordingly, the main severe
hazards will evolve towards mainly damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado or two.

Heavy rainfall and a flash flooding risk will also continue this
evening into Saturday morning. The greatest concern for additional
flooding will likely focus in corridors (far northern Oklahoma and
Clinton-to-OKC-to-Pauls Valley/Ada) where heavy rainfall has
occurred over the past day or so. Locally high/"worst case" amounts
of 3-4 inches will be possible by daybreak Saturday.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Saturday: An axis of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be
ongoing around daybreak, stretching from western Oklahoma into
east-central Oklahoma. General expectation is for this activity
to weaken and shift eastward through the morning. A brief lull in
precipitative activity is currently forecast from around midday to
mid-afternoon before additional thunderstorm development occurs
along a trailing surface front from south-central into southeast
Oklahoma. Given a continued moist and unstable airmass, a few
strong to severe thunderstorms will likely occur, with a risk for
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Sunday: Another potentially widespread thunderstorm episode with a
severe weather risk is possible on Sunday afternoon into
overnight. A lead upper wave will move southeastward across the
Southern High Plains during this time, with an attendant surface
front sweeping southeastward across the area. As the boundary
layer destabilizes, robust thunderstorm development appears likely from
northwestern Oklahoma into portions of the Texas Rolling Plains.
Large to very large hail and significant damaging wind gusts are
most probable with strongest convection through the evening.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The pattern is expected to turn slowly drier into next week. A
western upper ridge looks to slide further east into the Plains,
with main areas of rain/storms shifting further south towards the
Red River vicinity. Temperatures will likely remain rather
seasonable/average (80s to near 90-degrees south) for early June
during the period.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Severe thunderstorms are possible once again across our forecast
area, with most likely timing late evening into early Saturday
morning. Mainly VFR conditions are expected with MVFR conditions
possible with storms later this evening into Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  85  66  90 /  70  70  20  20
Hobart OK         66  89  65  92 /  50  40  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  71  93  70  94 /  30  10  30  20
Gage OK           60  84  60  88 /  90  60  10  30
Ponca City OK     65  84  63  89 /  90  70  10  10
Durant OK         75  91  71  91 /  10  20  50  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ004>032-039>043-
     046>048.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM...09
AVIATION...01