Norman, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

556
FXUS64 KOUN 212301
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
601 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 557 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return on Thursday; strong to
   severe thunderstorms are possible.
 - Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible Friday through
   Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Surface low pressure over far northwestern Oklahoma is expected
to weaken and perhaps develop farther west this evening. The low
and associated surface boundary is expected to drift southward
tonight, as an upper air disturbance moves east across the
central Plains. Meanwhile, a very moist airmass across the Gulf
and Texas coast will begin to advect northward, especially this
evening and overnight. Modest mid-level warm advection will likely
result in increased cloud cover overnight, with an outside chance
of elevated storms over central Oklahoma before 6-7 am Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

CAM guidance is similar in developing elevated showers and storms
mainly after 7 am. Parcels lifted from around 700 mb, yield about
750 J/kg per NAM soundings. Therefore, some of the stronger
storms may produce some hail and maybe gusty winds. The mid-level
flow is expected to be west to northwest, so storms will
generally move to the east and southeast around 25-30 mph. Some
models indicate convection may become more robust through the mid
to late morning, as low level moisture continues to increase. If
this occurs, the chance of severe storms will increase, mainly
south of I-40 and east of I-35. By early to mid afternoon, a
surface low is expected to be located across southwest Oklahoma
and western north Texas with an associated front extending
eastward across southern Oklahoma/ far northern Texas. Moisture
pooling near the frontal boundary and strong heating, may result
in rather high instability by late afternoon near the Red River
Valley. Surface and low level winds are expected to be fairly
weak, but the mid-level flow will be sufficiently strong and
veered for at least isolated severe storms. Storms that form will
move southeast, which should help with storm relative inflow.
Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest
convection.

By mid evening, most of the convection is expected to be south of
our western north Texas counties.  A much stronger low level jet is
expected to develop Thursday night with better mid-level warm
advection across northern Oklahoma and western Kansas.  This may be
the more favored location for elevated showers and storms late
Thursday evening/overnight.

On Friday, surface winds will transition back to a southerly flow
with a diffuse warm front lifting into central and northern
Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening. A few dryline storms
may develop by in the central/eastern Texas Panhandle late Friday
afternoon. If storms form, a few may drift into far western
Oklahoma and western north Texas during the evening.

Friday evening into the overnight hours, scattered thunderstorms may
form north of a surface warm front in Kansas and northeast Oklahoma.
Some of this activity may move southeast into north central
Oklahoma, but better chances appear north and east of our area. This
activity will be elevated with the potential for large hail and
maybe strong winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Concern for additional showers and thunderstorms will remain the
main message as we head into Memorial Day Weekend. While the
upper regime will trend towards an amplified upper ridge overhead,
signal remains for embedded/low-amplitude systems to round the
periphery of the ridge, perhaps close enough to support
thunderstorm development. For now, greatest chances (30-50%)
reside on Saturday evening and Sunday, mainly along and east of
the US-81 corridor.

While details on focused areas/threats of severe weather remain
uncertain at this update, given the progged return of seasonable
moisture, steep lapse rates and marginally sufficient deep-layer
wind fields, this threat cannot be discounted and further
refinement/focus will arrive over coming updates. Those with
outdoor plans over the weekend should make sure to stay up to date
with the forecast.

Saturday looks particularly hot across the region, with a few
locales across western-north Texas perhaps reaching 100-degrees
during the late afternoon. A surface front will offer cooling
conditions into Sunday (80s) before a potentially multi-day period
in the 70s arrives by Monday.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the period, outside of
thunderstorm-induced MVFR ceilings. Thunderstorms are possible
tomorrow morning across central and southern Oklahoma. Additional
thunderstorms are possible tomorrow, but may stay south of the Red
River. Will need to monitor trends in impacting TAF sites near
and south of the Red River.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  78  57  80 /  10  30  30  40
Hobart OK         58  83  59  84 /  10  10  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  65  92  61  86 /  10  30  30  20
Gage OK           54  80  54  81 /   0   0  10  20
Ponca City OK     58  78  52  75 /  10  10  20  50
Durant OK         61  83  62  83 /   0  40  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...13