Newcastle, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

812
FXUS64 KOUN 172322
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions continue across
  northwestern Oklahoma through sunset.

- Showers & thunderstorms on Friday evening through Sunday
  morning with severe weather and heavy rainfall/isolated flooding
  risk.

- Additional chances for scattered showers/thunderstorms toward
  the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

The main concern today remains a dangerous fire weather
environment across far western into northwestern Oklahoma. A
60-70 kt speed max continues to progress eastward across the
Plains, with pronounced dryline mixing near/just east of the 100th
meridian.

As expected, the airmass behind the dryline is rather volatile, with
the aforementioned speed max intercepting a pronounced low-level
thermal ridge (90s to near 100-degrees). Along with very low
relative humidity (as low as 5-7%) and gusty southwest winds (up
to 40 mph), concern for problematic fire starts/spread will
persist through just after sunset, especially across northwestern
Oklahoma. A Red Flag Warning will continue here through 9 PM.

A surface front will begin progressing into northern Oklahoma early
on Friday morning, bringing a wind shift and slightly cooler (upper-
40s/50) temperatures towards daybreak.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Widespread precipitation chances, with concern for severe weather
and heavy rainfall/isolated flooding, will arrive by Friday and
continue into the weekend. A prominent subtropical jet extension,
along with phasing Pacific wave, will continue to impact the
region during the period.

While there is a very low (10-20%) chance for a few rain showers
into the early afternoon on Friday, greatest potential for
precipitation will arrive near and after sunset, as
forcing/isentropic ascent increases across the area. A surface
front will progress slowly southward through the day, positioned
near the Interstate 44 corridor by the mid-evening. This feature
will likely serve as a focus for development on Friday evening.

There is areawide potential for strong-to-severe thunderstorms
into early Saturday morning. The most widespread severe hazard
will be large to perhaps very large hail given sufficient instability,
and elongated wind profiles (yielding >80 kts of cloud-layer wind
shear). Concern for damaging wind gusts/a low tornado risk will
be sensitive to thunderstorm location relative to the quasi-
stationary front. Should a majority of activity remain north of
this feature (as is currently favored), then most thunderstorms
will remain rooted above the stable boundary layer (i.e.,
elevated-hail risk). However, should a thunderstorm remain south
of, or interact favorably with, the boundary, then all hazards
will be possible.

Scattered shower/thunder coverage is likely to continue near and
north of the quasi-stationary front during the day on Saturday,
particularly across the southern one-half of the forecast area. More
widespread coverage is then again expected by Saturday evening
through early Sunday morning, as the phasing wave ejects into the
Southern Plains.

At least occasional strong-to-severe thunderstorms, along with
increasing concern for heavy rainfall/flooding, are currently
forecast on Saturday night/Sunday morning. Once again, hail will be
the primary severe hazard, with some potential for damaging
winds/very low tornado risk for strongest thunderstorms near/south
of the quasi-stationary front (~Red River Valley). The boundary
will also focus potential for localized heavy rainfall (isolated
"high end" amounts of 3-5 inches) and flooding given potential
for repeated/continuous thunderstorms. This is currently of most
concern from far south-central into east-central Oklahoma.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Sunday: Chances for showers/thunderstorms will end from west-to-east
through the afternoon. As a consolidated upper wave lifts towards
the Mississippi Valley, a trailing Pacific front will sweep eastward
across the area. Most locations will turn towards dry surface
weather by the afternoon, with cooler temperatures (60s to
near-70) and mostly cloudy skies.

Next Week: The pattern looks to remain rather active, especially
by Tuesday (and beyond). The subtropical jet looks to slowly
strengthen and move north/eastward. This looks likely to foster diurnally-
driven convective potential on Tuesday and Wednesday, including
some potential for severe weather.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

VFR ceilings for the TAF period at most sites with mid/high clouds
across the area. Stratus is expected to move into parts of the
area early Friday with MVFR ceilings possible especially at KDUA.
A cold front is expected to move across parts of the area Friday.
There are some differences in timing so some uncertainty with that
but front is expected to move into NW OK by the afternoon. Some
sprinkles/light showers may develop Friday morning across portions
of the area. Showers/storms could begin to develop near the front
late Friday afternoon although better chances will be near and
after 0Z. LLWS is expected again tonight at all TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  82  55  63 /   0  20  90  80
Hobart OK         65  84  51  64 /  10  20  70  60
Wichita Falls TX  67  86  60  71 /   0  20  80  80
Gage OK           58  75  41  56 /   0  10  50  30
Ponca City OK     67  77  49  57 /   0  30  90  70
Durant OK         66  83  65  76 /   0  20  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014-015.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...25