McAlester, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

684
FXUS64 KTSA 042341
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 636 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

 - Hot and humid conditions peak today. Heat Advisory remains in
   effect for much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.

 - Low storm chances continue this afternoon primarily across
   southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Higher storm
   chances/coverage and severe weather potential is expected
   Saturday evening and overnight and may impact the Independence
   Day holiday festivities in parts of northeast Oklahoma.

 - Near normal temperatures Sunday into early next week, increasing
   again mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

An outflow boundary from storms well to the north in eastern
Kansas is making its way south into northeast Oklahoma early this
afternoon. It is likely that this boundary will slow/stall and
eventually begin to wash out later this afternoon. Strong to
severe thunderstorm development is expected by late this afternoon
or early evening from southern Kansas into north central
Oklahoma, with the storms likely organizing into a complex this
evening that will then move southeast across much of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late this evening and overnight.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main severe weather
threats early this evening, with a transition to mainly a damaging
wind threat by mid to late evening as the storms organize and
spread southeast. The severe weather threat will likely lessen
somewhat overnight as the storms push farther south into southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Locally heavy rainfall will also
accompany these storms this evening and overnight. The timing of
the storms may impact Independence Day holiday festivities in
parts of northeast Oklahoma this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

A few showers and storms may linger into Sunday morning, with at
least a low chance for some redevelopment Sunday afternoon and
evening from southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas.
Temperatures Sunday will be cooler than today, with afternoon
highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s in most places.

Dry weather with near seasonable temperatures will prevail Monday
and Tuesday. An uptick in temperatures is expected later in the
week, but likely not quite as hot as the NBM currently suggests.
At least low rain chances will also return by the end of the week
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The immediate concern is the organized cluster of storms moving
into northeast OK at this time. Activity is forecast to continue
spreading east and south through the evening with convective
impacts and strong gusts at least at northeast OK terminals. More
uncertainty exists with northwest AR and especially KFSM TAF
sites with potential for activity to shift more southward with
time lessening impacts there. Some SCT MVFR clouds possible in
the wake of the activity across northern locations through mid
Sunday morning. Better chance of all other locations remaining
VFR outside of convection through the period. Winds will shift to
the northwest late morning into the afternoon Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  88  69  91 /  90  30  10  10
FSM   72  93  72  92 /  50  30  10  10
MLC   72  92  71  92 /  60  30  20  10
BVO   68  87  66  90 /  80  30   0   0
FYV   68  88  66  89 /  60  30  10  10
BYV   68  87  67  87 /  60  30  10  10
MKO   72  89  69  91 /  60  30  10  10
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  70  30  10  10
F10   71  90  69  91 /  60  30  10  10
HHW   72  94  72  92 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055-063-073-074-
     154-176-254-272.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ059>062-
     064>067-070-071-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24