Guymon, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

507
FXUS64 KAMA 141917
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
217 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

- Temperatures will return to the upper-80s to low-90s across most
of the Panhandles this weekend.

- Breezy to windy conditions will be possible on Sunday and
  Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

The Panhandles will be on the backside of a shortwave trough
ejecting into the Upper Midwest tonight as a Pacific front moves
through the Panhandles, dropping lows into the low-40s in the
northwestern combined Panhandles.

The more seasonable temperatures associated with the Pacific front
will be settled in by sunrise on Thursday morning. A surface low
will develop in NE New Mexico/SE Colorado throughout the afternoon
which will result in borderline breezy winds in the far western
combined Panhandles. Otherwise, it`ll be a dry day with highs in the
mid-70s in the west to mid-80s in the east.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

The Panhandles will be on the backside of a departing upper-level
trough Friday morning with the latest forecast models depicting a
shortwave trough located in the vicinity of Baja California
gradually progressing northeast through the day. Expecting another
quiet day on Friday with relatively weak winds and highs warming
into the 80s.

The previously mentioned shortwave trough, based off the latest
GFS/ECMWF/NAM guidance, is favored to develop a weak and broad
surface low in the vicinity of west-central TX/east-central NM. The
cyclonic flow around surface low looks to result in some modest low-
level moisture return and 700mb theta-e advcection into portions of
the eastern combined Panhandles... though perhaps limited to the
easternmost stack of counties in the CWA. If this solution holds,
latest guidance suggests there will be some subtle perturbations in
the southwesterly flow that could result in the development of
showers and thunderstorms in the portions of the eastern Panhandles
where there`s sufficient moisture. At this time, the NBM is giving
less than 10% PoPs for the eastern Panhandles; will leave that for
now, but will have to keep an eye on Saturday afternoon/early
evening for some shower and thunderstorm activity in the east.

A potent shortwave trough is favored to dig into southern Nevada
Saturday night and, depending on the model/ensemble member, eject to
the east-northeast or northeast through the day on Sunday. The GFS
and the majority of its ensemble members want to eject the system to
the northeast, while the ECMWF camp favors a slower and more east-
northeast track. Both solutions favor a dryline moving into western
Oklahoma by the mid-afternoon hours, but the ECMWF solution would
put the dryline further west than the GFS solution. Will have to
keep an eye on the trends in the coming days in case there are any
changes in the track or quality of moisture return. Regardless,
there will likely be breezy to windy conditions west of the dryline.

Another upper-level is favored to swing into the Four Corner states
on Monday, but confidence is even higher than Sunday that the
dryline will stay to the east and the Panhandles will stay dry.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period.
Southwesterly sustained winds of 25-30 kts are expected today with
gusts up to 40 kts at all terminals. Winds will begin to weaken
this evening and further weakening is expected overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                54  80  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  49  83  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              44  78  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  52  84  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              48  81  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  53  80  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               59  83  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 44  78  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  46  81  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                51  81  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                52  83  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   54  82  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                60  83  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              62  84  55  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52