Broken Arrow, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

692
FXUS64 KTSA 250522
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

 - Fog is expected to develop again tonight in the valleys of
   eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Some of this fog may
   be dense in spots.

 - Low chance of showers and/or thunderstorms this afternoon,
   mainly in SE OK and W-Central AR.

 - Daily rain and storm chances are expected areawide Tuesday
   through the end of the week. Locally heavy rainfall which could
   lead to isolated flash flooding will be the main threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Sfc high pressure remains in place through the overnight hours
with light to calm winds. This will likely allow temperatures to
fall into the upper 50s/lower 60s tonight, with radiation fog
development possible again, particularly in typical valley
locations. While not expected to be as widespread as yesterday,
fog may become dense in some areas and visibilities may be locally
reduced to less than one mile.

During the day, an upper level low positioned over northeast
Texas will begin to lift north toward the area with moisture
increasing across the area from the south/southeast. This could
allow for the development of a few showers and/or thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening across SE OK and W-Central AR.
CAMs suggest a shower or two could develop as far north as Hwy
412, but PoPs remain less than 15 percent north of I-40.
Otherwise, partly cloudy skies are forecast with highs in the
lower to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

The aforementioned low will lift over the area fully on Tuesday
with afternoon shower and storm chances occurring areawide.
Meanwhile, an elongated upper level trough develops across the
intermountain west and southern high plains. A shortwave will
rotate into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, providing
additional rain and storm chances to the CWA, becoming likely from
southwest to northeast during the day. Weak troughing will remain
overhead through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
This will maintain daily rain and storm chances through the
extended period. PWATs will remain well above average during this
time and weak mean winds will likely result in slow storm motions
late week. Thus, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
potential will remain a concern. However, severe weather is
generally not expected over the coming days due to weak shear
values. Temperatures remain near average for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Fog development remains uncertain at this time, however current
trends suggest some has begun to develop in a few valleys of far
eastern OK. High clouds may inhibit radiational cooling to some
degree and thus potential for significant fog is likely less
compared to past couple of nights. Still, expect a period of MVFR
vis in NW AR terminals overnight through early Monday morning. VFR
conditions prevail otherwise through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  64  81 /   0  20  10  80
FSM   65  83  66  84 /  10  40  10  90
MLC   64  84  66  81 /  10  20  30 100
BVO   59  82  61  82 /   0  20  10  70
FYV   62  80  64  83 /  10  60  10  70
BYV   60  78  62  83 /   0  50  10  60
MKO   63  81  64  81 /  10  30  10  90
MIO   61  81  63  83 /   0  40  10  60
F10   62  82  64  80 /  10  20  20  90
HHW   65  82  66  79 /  10  20  50  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14