Broken Arrow, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

211
FXUS64 KTSA 150406
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1106 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 938 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

  - Cool northerly winds continue into Tuesday with temperatures near
    to slightly below normal.

  - A few showers or thunderstorms may develop Wednesday and Thursday
    mornings, but coverage and impacts will be minimal. Warm and
    windy conditions will also develop during this period.

  - A more active weather pattern is expected to return by next weekend.
    Multiple rounds of strong to severe storm and heavy rain
    potential are anticipated, which could lead to flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 938 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

High level cloudiness will continue to clear from north to south
overnight. This will allow temperatures to fall below the
seasonal averages tonight, with some 30s in the normally colder
locations in northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Other
than a few minor changes to overnight lows, the going forecast is
on track.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

The weather for Tuesday looks excellent, with slightly below normal
high temperatures, ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s, under mostly
clear skies. Winds will also be much diminished over today,
generally in the 5-15 mph range. We will see one more cool night
Wednesday morning as pressure gradients go flat, with lows mostly in
the 40s.

For Wednesday and Thursday high pressure will build across the
southeast USA, with a trough digging into the west. A robust
southerly low level jet will increase moisture content and winds
across the area. Winds will become strong on Thursday with some
gusts up to 30-45 mph, so a Wind Advisory may eventually be
needed for portions of the area. Temperatures will warm quickly
during this period, with mid to upper 80s for many areas by
Thursday. One thing we will have to watch for Wednesday and
Thursday morning is the chance of a few showers and storms near
sunrise each day when the low level warm advection is at its
strongest. If anything did get going, it would be elevated with
the lower levels strongly capped. But a few isolated showers and
storms would not be surprising, especially north of I-40.

The previously mentioned gusty southerly winds will be driven by
lowering pressure and a developing surface front to the north. This
front will slowly work its way south into the area by Friday,
leading to our next rain and thunderstorm chance. With increasing
instability, deep moisture, and strong wind shear in place, the
additional forcing of the cold front should help to kick off storms
by Friday evening. Good upper level diffluence from a passing jet
streak will aid in this process as well. Severe weather and heavy
rainfall are both possible. Storms will continue Saturday into
Sunday with the boundary remaining straddled across the area,
perhaps slowly drifting south. Areas near and south of the
boundary will be more susceptible to continued rounds of heavy
rainfall and severe weather, with wet but less impactful weather
to the north. The upper level low will finally eject overhead late
Sunday with rain chances likely winding down into Monday as the
surface front pushes through. Ensemble guidance shows significant
variability in rain totals, but 1-4" might be a reasonable
estimate for Friday-Sunday at this time, with locally higher
totals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

High clouds are expected to scattered out across most of the CWA
overnight tonight as an upper level trof axis drops southeast
through the region. During the day Tuesday, mostly clear to
scattered high clouds are forecast before additional high clouds
look to move into the region Tuesday evening. Winds through the
period remain northerly for most locations into Tuesday afternoon
and then become light/variable late afternoon/evening with surface
high pressure moving into the region. VFR conditions prevail
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  69  47  78 /   0   0  20  20
FSM   48  72  46  78 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   46  71  47  79 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   37  69  43  78 /   0   0  20  20
FYV   39  67  41  74 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   41  65  42  74 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   43  68  45  77 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   38  65  44  74 /   0   0  10  20
F10   44  70  47  78 /   0   0  20  10
HHW   50  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20