Bartlesville, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

485
FXUS64 KTSA 251132
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
532 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 531 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

 - Well above average temperatures will persist through Saturday.
   Daily record highs are expected with all-time December record highs
   also possible.

 - Strong cold front arrives Sunday bringing a chance for showers
   and maybe a few storms as well. Much colder temps, more typical of
   late December, can be expected to start next week.

 - Areas of fog possible again in parts of northeast Oklahoma near
   the Kansas border, and in the Arkansas River Valley tonight and
   Christmas morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary over KS is expected to settle
south tonight and be near the OK/KS border by morning. This area
will see lighter winds and cooler temps overnight, potentially
dropping into the upper 40s again. As a result, much like the
previous couple of nights, areas of fog are expected to develop that
could be locally dense. Light winds and relatively cooler temps are
also forecast in the lower Arkansas Valley and some valleys in
southeast OK, though there is some uncertainty there with the degree
of low cloud cover. Nevertheless, short-term models show a fog
signal there, some of which may be dense by Christmas morning. Lows
tonight will be well above normal daytime highs for the season in
most areas, though relatively cooler in the above mentioned
locations.

An anomalously strong ridge aloft for this time of year will prevail
on Thursday over the Plains downstream from a deep upper trough near
the West Coast, though upper heights will fall a bit as the ridge
flattens. The LLTR will slide south over the forecast area, a touch
weaker than today. In addition, there will be an increase in mid and
high level cloud by afternoon as the ridge flattens and this will
likely limit the max warming potential. Nevertheless, the warmest
Christmas on record is forecast across the region with temps from
the mid 70s to near 80. There is still a chance we touch all-time
December highs again, though this chance is low given reasons above.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Low amplitude ridging will persist over the Plains into Friday. A
subtle wave sliding east across the central/northern Plains will
force a weak surface boundary down into the region Thursday night
into Friday. The previous shift introduced some fog potential across
NE OK on the cool side of the boundary and this will be left alone
given what has happened recently. Relatively cooler highs are
forecast across NE OK Friday afternoon, which may prevent records
from being broken here. Record warmth is likely south of the
boundary Friday, and across the entire area on Saturday with all-
time December records again in play.

Some significant weather changes are in store for the latter part of
the weekend into the first part of next week. A pair of waves, one
in the southern stream off the CA coast, and another in the northern
stream coming in from the Pac NW are expected to phase and shift
east across the central Plains Sunday. This will send a strong cold
front south across the region, ushering in the reality that it is
indeed winter. The trends in frontal timing have been slower of
late, instead of Saturday night more during the day Sunday now.
Given the unusually high dewpoints in place for this time of year
and the slower timing of fropa into the day on Sunday, expect
increasing chances for showers and some storms (maybe even a low
severe threat?) with the front over more of the forecast area than
in previous forecasts. There is some uncertainty as to how much post-
frontal precip occurs by late Sunday, with some models including the
12Z EC, showing the potential for a light wintry mix at the end of
the event. The GFS is drier in the post-frontal region and ensemble
cluster data shows meaningful chances for either to occur. Even if
it were to occur, no impacts are expected at this time. This front
will bring a glancing blow of arctic air into the region, knocking
temps down to well below average by Monday. Forecast temps have been
trending lower with each forecast with this airmass.

A warming trend starts on Tuesday as the upper trough shifts east,
the surface ridge slides southeast and lee troughing forms over the
High Plains, inducing low level downslope flow. This warming trend
will continue into the middle of next week.

The AO (Arctic Oscillation) continues to trend down, with the index
expected to go negative by the end of the month. This suggests
conditions are more favorable for arctic intrusions into the country
as we head into the first part of January. The longer range
forecasts from the EC and GFS suggest that the bulk of this arctic
air will stay over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with more of a
warmer downslope flow over the Plains.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Locally dense fog at KFSM will begin to burn off by mid to late
morning, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period. South winds will gust over 20 knots at times
today into tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  73  54 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   80  61  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   80  61  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   77  50  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   76  61  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   76  63  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   79  61  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   77  58  73  53 /   0   0   0   0
F10   80  61  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   78  62  79  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05