Warren, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

370
FXUS61 KCLE 281349
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
949 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will lift north across Ohio and Lake
Erie today and tonight before gradually exiting to the
northeast on Thursday. Weak low pressure tracks through the Ohio
Valley on Friday, with a cold front pushing south across the
local area Saturday. High pressure will build in by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9:45 AM Update...
Adjusted PoPs to be higher across NE OH and NW PA as
precipitation continues to be consistent. Though, drop QPF
slightly through the early afternoon as totals have been light.
The rest of forecast remains on track.

Original Discussion...

A rather messy pattern will take shape this morning and affect
our weather through Thursday keeping conditions cool, cloudy,
and damp, but overall weak forcing will keep rain amounts
scattered and light.

Infrared satellite and water vapor loops this morning show a
deep, closed mid/upper low pinwheeling over the Upper Midwest,
with a shortwave rotating around its base supporting a weak
surface low in southern Indiana/northern Kentucky. Broad but
weak warm air advection and isentropic ascent ahead of these
features is leading to rather widespread light showers on
regional radar loops, but a dry low-level airmass that has been
stubborn to erode has allowed only light sprinkles to reach the
ground in scattered areas. A few ASOS sites have started to
report light rain in their METAR observations over the past
hour, which is a sign that the low-levels are starting to
moisten, but expect a lot of virga to continue through sunrise.
With this in mind, kept PoPs much lower compared to the previous
forecast early this morning. Once the low-levels do moisten by
mid morning, there isn`t strong jet support or moisture
advection to supply much forcing for rain other than continued
bands of weak isentropic ascent as the low gradually lifts
north. This will keep the rain scattered and light today,
although more will occur compared to overnight. Have gradually
increasing PoPs from after sunrise through this afternoon, with
the best chance for showers occurring near the lakeshore and
across NE Ohio and NW PA where some lift will be maximized to
the NE of a pseudo mid-level warm front. QPF will only average
0.10 to 0.30 inches today, with locally higher amounts in NE
Ohio and NW PA. The bigger impact will be periods of drizzle and
mist today, reducing visibilities to 2 to 5 statute miles at
times due to the increased low-level moisture without much
synoptic forcing available to tap into it.

The surface low will continue to slowly lift north tonight,
reaching southern Lake Huron by Thursday morning while becoming
absorbed into the closed mid/upper low. The remnants of this
stacked low pressure system will then slowly drift eastward
across Ontario Province Thursday. Drier air gradually wrapping
in behind the low as it lifts north of Lake Erie tonight will
allow the bulk of any showers to exit to the northeast, but it
may take awhile for the areas of drizzle and mist to dissipate.
Retained slight chance PoPs for Thursday as cyclonic flow and a
relative cold pool aloft (850 mb temps of 6-7 C) combined with
the high late May sun angle will drive some diurnal showers.
These will again be scattered, light, and low-impact.

Highs will be cooler today with the clouds and damp conditions,
with upper 50s to low 60s expected. The coolest temps will be in
NW PA. Highs Thursday will rebound into the mid 60s to around
70. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast period is starting to build more consensus
for the end of the week into the weekend. For Thursday night into
Friday, an upper level shortwave trough will move through the
Midwest and into the Ohio Valley. This trough will support a low
pressure system that will largely move along the Ohio River during
this time, allowing for the forecast area to be on the periphery of
this system. Meanwhile, on Friday, a broader upper trough over
eastern Canada will begin to extend south into the Great Lakes
region and start to absorb the energy of the earlier shortwave. As
the broader trough from the north approaches, a surface cold front
will also approach and this front could interact with the surface
low to the southeast and allow for some shower activity to pick up
in earnest on Friday with better coverage expected on Friday night.
For Saturday, the front will cross the forecast area with rain
chances decreasing areawide, although there could be some lingering
lake enhanced rain into NE OH and NW PA with the northwest flow over
Lake Erie and 850 mb temperatures in the 1-3 C range. The upper
trough will then fully dig into the Northeast CONUS. The forecast
area will be on the back side of this system with drier air
filtering into the area and some cooler temperatures advecting
south. High temperatures through the period will be cooler than
normal with mostly 60s, perhaps some 70s in NW OH, where clouds and
rain may struggle a bit more. Low will be in the 50s for Thursday
night and Friday night with clouds in the region. Saturday night
will be cool with 40s with departing clouds and cold air advection
allowing temperatures to trend down.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper trough east of the forecast area on Sunday will continue to
drive cooler, drier northwest flow into the area. The main synoptic
system for any rain will be well off to the east and high pressure
will start ebbing in from the northwest. Therefore, will have a dry
forecast with cooler than normal highs in the 60s and lows as a mix
of 40s and 50s. For Monday, Tuesday, and beyond, the pattern is
expected to rapidly flip from a late-April to early-May pattern
right into the heart of summer as a strong upper ridge will develop
over the central CONUS and move east early next week. This system
will bring significantly warmer temperatures with 70s to 80s on
Monday and 80s on Tuesday with good return flow over the region. The
subsidence of this upper ridge should preclude any shower or storm
chances for Monday and Tuesday, although that will change later in
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Widespread MVFR to IFR cigs and vis have developed, and this
will continue much of the day as the rain showers this morning
transition to fairly persistent drizzle and mist. Went a little
more aggressive with the IFR today, and some LIFR this morning,
compared to the last set of TAFs. KERI is still VFR due to the
SE downslope flow, but expect MVFR to finally develop there by
late morning and eventually IFR by this evening. Drier air will
gradually work in from SW to NE tonight, but expect MVFR to IFR
to be slow to erode.

E to SE winds of 5-10 knots will continue into this afternoon
before turning SW by this evening as the low lifts north of the
region. SW winds of 5-10 knots will then continue tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in additional scattered showers
Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
East flow continues on Lake Erie this morning with high pressure to
the north that will depart and low pressure over the Ohio Valley
that will lift north today. The low will approach the lake by late
afternoon and pass to the northeast tonight. Flow over the late will
shift to the southeast later today and then southwest behind the
system. Southwest flow will remain in place through Thursday and
Friday with some general troughiness across the region. There may be
some periods where the flow turns more westerly and onshore, but
winds should remain below 15 kts through Friday. A front will cross
the lake on Saturday and flow will shift to the northwest and
strengthen into the 15 to 20 kt range. There could be a need for a
Small Craft Advisory for Saturday with the frontal passage.
Northwest flow will continue through the weekend with a stronger low
pressure system moving up the East Coast. However, the strength of
the northwest flow will weaken as the East Coast system departs and
high pressure starts building in from the west.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/23
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Sefcovic