Toledo, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

143
FXUS61 KCLE 230841
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
Issued by National Weather Service Buffalo NY
341 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will linger over the area through today,
before weak high pressure builds across the region tonight
through Sunday. A low pressure system and associated cold front
will track through the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cool northwesterly flow regime keeping bands of lake effect
rain showers across northeast Ohio early this morning. This
precipitation will gradually shift to the east through this
morning and into the afternoon as the low level flow backs.
High pressure and a drier airmass is expected to begin to push
north, resulting in the gradual decrease in lake effect
precipitation and the return to drier conditions by mid to late
afternoon. No precipitation-type concerns today with precipitation
all in the liquid form, with high temperatures today climbing
into the mid to upper 40s. Though the precipitation fades away
tonight clouds should remain with overnight low temperatures
dropping into the mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge axis will be located from the Mid-South to
Minnesota Sunday morning. At the same, the surface high will be
located over Tennessee Valley creating a southwest flow over the
forecast area on Sunday. Upper level ridge will slide east on Sunday
increasing heights and yielding a slight warming trend on Sunday.
This feature will maintain the slight warming trend Sunday through
Monday. A storm system is expected to track across the Rockies
Sunday night and move east across the Central Plains on Monday. The
associated wave will become neutral Monday afternoon and negatively
tilted from Minnesota to Indiana Monday night. Low level flow ahead
of this system will advect in lower and mid layer moisture.
Precipitable water values will increase from 0.5 inch early Sunday
to one inch by Monday night. At this time, rain chances will be
introduced late Sunday night and increased to likely pops Monday
afternoon and evening. a cold frontal passage is expected Monday
night with strong cold air advection with boundary layer winds
approaching 30 knots across land and 40 knots on Lake Erie. Under
rain showers and warm air advection before the cold front, Monday
will be our warmest day in the forecast with high temperatures in
the 50 to 60 degree range. This will be a very dynamic system with
very marginal instability. A clap a thunder is possible along the
front Monday night but not worth mentioning with right now.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A dramatic change will occur on Tuesday with strong cold advection
on Tuesday. The main trough will continue to lift northeast and
leave zonal flow over the forecast area through Wednesday. However,
northwest flow at 850mb will yield brief periods of lake enhanced
precipitation on Wednesday. A wave over south central Canada will
dive southeast and combine and another system over the Rockies to
bring in the next system later in the week. A developing low
pressure system moving west to east from the southern plains into
the Appalachians. Northern portion of the precipitation may reside
across central Ohio, the south half of the forecast area Thursday.
At this time, there is a great deal of uncertainty on the track and
will need to watch this system for changing precipitation types as
well. A trough is expected to over eastern Canada and east half of
Conus next weekend and give a good chance cold Canadian air coming
down south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Surface trough to exit eastward today as a ridge builds from the
Upper Midwest and vicinity through 00Z/Sun. Surface winds are
expected to vary between west and north-northwest around 10 to
20 knots. Gusts up to 20 to 30 knots are expected at times. The
most-persistent gusts are expected immediately downwind of Lake
Erie, including KCLE.

Widespread low-level clouds with primarily MVFR to IFR ceilings are
expected through 00Z/Sun. However, these low-level ceilings should
rise to the VFR range at/near KTOL and KFDY after 17Z/Sat.
Widespread lake-enhanced/effect rain showers will continue to stream
generally S`ward from Lake Erie through 15Z/Sat. Thereafter,
scattered to widespread lake-enhanced/effect rain showers will
stream generally SE`ward from the lake as mean low-level flow backs
from N`erly to NW`erly. Visibility is expected to vary between VFR
and IFR in precip.

Outlook...Additional lake-effect rain showers with non-VFR possible
in and near the primary snowbelt of NE OH and NW PA Saturday evening
through Sunday afternoon. Scattered and periodic rain and/or snow
showers with non-VFR expected this Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories will remain in place as outlined below.

There will a gradual decrease in the northwest winds through tonight
as they turn more westerly. Wind will become southwesterly Sunday at
10-15kts into Monday. Strong cold front tracks across the lake late
Monday into Monday night. Strong west winds of 20 to 30 knots are
possible after the frontal passage Monday night into Tuesday.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ142.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ144>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ148-149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...FZ
LONG TERM...FZ
AVIATION...99/Jaszka
MARINE...FZ/99