Parma, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

358
FXUS61 KCLE 141815
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
Issued by National Weather Service Buffalo NY
215 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to lift across the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes regions through tonight before a ridge builds
eastward on Thursday. Low pressure over the Northern Plains will
lift a warm front across the area Thursday night, followed by a
cold front Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered showers are starting to develop across NW Ohio and our
first thunderstorm was noted in Seneca County. ML CAPE values
have increased to between 500-800 J/kg and expect to see a
continued expansion of showers and thunderstorm into this
evening as the upper trough lifts northeast through tonight.
Initially the greatest coverage of thunderstorms will be in the
west but also seeing a thicker cumulus field between CAK and
YNG and expect thunderstorms to also develop in this area as
simulated by several of the high resolution models. Severe
weather is not expected today but locally heavy rain is possible
especially with any training storms.

Previous discussion...
The upper level low has evolved into an upper level trough that
will linger across much of the eastern CONUS through tonight.
Scattered showers with isolated, embedded thunderstorms are
possible once again this afternoon and early evening as roughly
500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is realized during peak heating. Storms
should remain sub-severe given limited wind shear, but can`t
rule out sub-severe gusty winds in strongest thunderstorms that
develop through this evening. The airmass remains moist with
PWATs well above normal for this time of year in addition to
slow cloud layer wind speeds which may lead to some isolated
nuisance flooding in any training thunderstorm. High
temperatures settle in the lower 70s this afternoon with
overnight lows settling near 60 degrees tonight.

An upper level ridge will briefly build overhead from the west
tonight into the day on Thursday which will push the upper
trough east. Maintained slight chance to low-end chance PoPs,
mainly out west, through Thursday as the airmass remains moist
underneath the ridge. Warmer on Thursday with high temperatures
rising to the upper 70s to lower 80s. Unsettled weather returns
after sunset on Thursday with more in the short term discussion
below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The end of the week will be unsettled with two rounds of potentially
strong to severe thunderstorms that we will need to monitor and stay
weather aware for. The first round of convection that could bring
severe weather to northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania will
develop on our western doorstep with our attention towards northern
Indiana early Thursday evening. Forecast model guidance indicates
the thermodynamics and atmospheric conditions that may develop
Thursday evening looks fairly impressive for the middle of May. A
lead shortwave will eject out from the base of a negatively tilted
trough that will be centered over the northern CONUS Thursday
evening. This shortwave will track from the Cornbelt Region into the
Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley Thursday night. The factors that
will support possible severe convection will be plenty of shear with
Bulk values 40 to 50 knots. Mixed layer CAPE values will top out
around 3000 or more J/kg over NWOH. Surface moisture will be adequate
with dewpoint values in the middle to upper 60s. Lapse rates will
approach 8C/km or slightly higher towards NWOH. There will be a
slight CAP or some CIN during the afternoon to help keep convection
from developing initially. But that CAP will easily be overcome with
rapid convection development during the late afternoon and early
evening timeframe. The convection could also become severe rather
quickly once it gets going, especially in the forecasted environment
that is forecasted by guidance.

The greatest severe hazard probabilities are just west and Northwest
of northern Ohio it does come up towards far NWOH with all modes of
severe weather potentially. The overall trend for convection will be
discrete or semi-discrete storms and a couple supercells are
possible in this good thermodynamic environment. There may also be a
risk for an organized cluster or MCS type convection that could also
try to develop and track in the area or just northwest of our CWA.
That will be something nowcast closer to this severe weather event.
here biggest severe threat will be large hail and damaging winds.
There is also a low end tornado risk for any discrete cells. The
greater risk is further west into NWOH but that threat will fade
into north central Ohio later in the evening and overnight. The
overall trend should be a decrease in organization and severity as it
much further east in the NEOH and NWPA late overnight and early
Friday morning.

The first round of convection will be east of the area by sunrise
Friday morning. We will still have a very warm southwest flow at the
surface and in the low levels. Our low level moisture content will
slowly recharge later on Friday ahead of the second round of
possible strong to severe will move into late Friday evening and
overnight. High temperatures will be warmer Friday afternoon in the
middle to upper 80s and possibly within a few degrees of daily
record highs. The upper level trough will move from the northern
CONUS into the western Great Lakes late Friday evening.
Diffluence mid and upper level flow on the southeastern flank
of this trough and a cold front will be the mechanism to develop
widespread convection across the Ohio Valley Friday evening
into the late night. We have a day 3 SPC marginal outlook for
our southwestern CWA or closer to central Ohio. Looking at some
of the severe weather parameters and convection development from
forecast models, that severe weather risk potential may need to
be expanded more into northern Ohio and NWPA if those trends
continue. At this time, we will mention some limited severe
weather possible and a localized heavy rainfall threat given
more coverage of convection with the main push of the cold front
late Friday night.

THe upper level trough will swing through over our area Saturday
into Saturday evening. It will be cooler  Saturday in the middle 70s
with some linger rain showers closer to Lake Erie as the upper level
tough axis moves through. A deepening low pressure tracking across
Ontario into Quebec Saturday will increase our winds from the west
and southwest 15 to 25 mph with possible gusts up to 35 mph or
higher if we can mix down some of the winds off the surface layer.
Saturday night temperatures will be much cooler as we see decent
cool air advection coming form southern Canada across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region as overnight lows will drop into the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Much cooler weather will finish out the weekend with Sundays high
temps ranging from the lower 60s over NWPA and NEOH to around 70
degrees for NWOH. A large Canadian high pressure system will build
down across the region SUnday through Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday`s
temperatures will be below average for middle May standards. The
next potential system to impact the region with rain and maybe more
storms will move in the  middle of next week as well as a slow
warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Conditions have improved to VFR at most terminals. Scattered showers
are starting to develop across NW and North Central Ohio and
our first thunderstorm was noted in Seneca County. We expect to
see a continued expansion of showers and thunderstorm into this
evening as the upper trough lifts northeast through tonight.
Initially the greatest coverage of thunderstorms will be in NW
Ohio through 00Z but also seeing a thicker cumulus field
between CAK and YNG and expect thunderstorms to also develop
towards YNG as simulated by several of the high resolution
models. Later today, showers and thunderstorms may approach CLE,
generally after 22Z. Severe weather is not expected today but
locally heavy rain, wind gusts to 30 knots and IFR visibilities
are possible with thunderstorms. Have include MVFR/IFR
conditions in TEMPO or PROB groups with thunderstorms. Timing
may need to be refined. General VFR conditions are expected to
continue overnight unless a terminal receives heavy rain causing
fog to develop. Otherwise, most locations will trend towards a
scattered cumulus deck on Thursday.

Winds are generally out of the southeast today between 5-10
knots although easterly winds off Lake Erie are likely at
TOL/ERI this afternoon. Winds shift out of the south or
southwest on Thursday morning except a lake breeze is likely
again at ERI towards afternoon.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are
possible through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will become weaker on Wednesday from the south or light and
variable. A light southerly flow 5 to 12 knots will return over the
lake Thursday ahead of a cold front. Behind the cold front, winds
will become westerly 10 to 20 late Thursday night into Friday
morning. There may be a brief time window where marginal SCA may
occur. Winds will become southwesterly 5 to 10 knots later on
Friday. A stronger low pressure system may develop and move across
Lake Erie Friday night into Saturday with stronger southerly to
southwesterly winds 15 to 25 knots. Westerly winds 15 to 25 knots, ,
maybe up to 30 knots in the open waters of Lake ERie will continue
into Saturday. SCA headlines may be needed Friday night into
Saturday evening. High pressure builds down from southern Canada
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...10/13
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...10
MARINE...77