Mentor, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

717
FXUS61 KCLE 112355
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
755 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west, becoming centered over
the area by Saturday afternoon. The high will influence the
region through the weekend before a warm front lifts into the
region Sunday night into early Monday. The warm front will be
followed by a cold front during the day Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low stratus will persist across portions of NE OH and NW PA
through Saturday morning or afternoon as a surface low departs
to the east. However, the clearing trend will continue across
the western half of the CWA as high pressure builds in from the
west. A few light rain showers/drizzle can`t be ruled out across
NE OH and NW PA tonight, but overall chances are low so capped
PoPs at slight chance (around 20 percent). Main concern over the
next 24 hours will be patchy to areas of fog across NE OH and
NW PA tonight into Saturday morning. There`s some potential for
patchy dense fog primarily across interior NW PA so will need
to assess the potential for an SPS or Dense Fog Advisory during
a future update. Otherwise, the forecast will remain dry through
the rest of the near term period as high pressure slides east
into the region Saturday. Some high res guidance hints at
isolated showers trying to sneak into the western fringe of the
area Saturday night, although the best rain chances will likely
remain to the west of the area through the end of the period.

Tonight`s lows will fall into the low to mid 30s. A slight
warming trend will begin Saturday and expect highs in the mid
40s to lower 50s with overnight lows in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge builds east across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday
then towards the East Coast on Monday. This occurs as a low pressure
tracks out of the Plains to the Upper Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday
night with an upper level trough moving east into the Upper Midwest.
Sunday will be dry and trending warmer with southerly flow
developing. A warm front lifts northeast across the area on Sunday
night and have low pops in the forecast with increasing overrunning
but dry air in the low levels will likely delay the onset of rain.
The associated cold front will sweep east across the area on Monday
afternoon as a 70+ knot jet streak at 500mb arrives from the west.
Timing of the front has sped up slightly over recent days and expect
to see scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms developing
during the afternoon. There will be a fair amount of cloud cover
ahead of the front and it is unclear yet how much instability will
reach the area. Temperatures have trended down slightly given the
cloud cover and faster frontal timing with highs in the low to mid
60s. With that in mind the SPC has an area that just clips our
southern counties highlighted in a potential day 4 risk of severe
weather so that will be something to monitor over the weekend.
Otherwise, breezy westerly winds and falling temperatures will
follow behind the front Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level trough deepens across the Great Lakes and New England on
Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected on Tuesday with pretty good
coverage expected, especially downwind of Lake Erie. Below normal
temperatures are expected and will struggle to climb more than 5
degrees or so with continued cold advection and breezy conditions
through the day. Many areas will have wind chills in the 30s with
northwest winds gusting to 25-35 mph. As temperatures fall into the
30s on Tuesday night, areas in the east may see a transition to snow
showers with a cold pool at 850mb of -6 to -9C.

The long range pattern remains active as this trough shifts off the
East Coast on Wednesday with the next trough pushing south out of
Canada Wednesday night into Thursday. Wednesday looks to dry out
quickly with warming temperatures on Thursday. The outlook by the
end of the week will have temperatures trending back down as that
next longwave trough arrives.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A stratus cloud deck remains over much of the eastern forecast
area, generally along and east of I-71. West of this cloud deck
should be mostly clear/sunny skies through the TAF period.
Underneath the stratus, ceilings are currently mostly VFR,
except in Northwest Pennsylvania where MVFR conditions are
observed. Should tend to see ceilings lower through the night,
with the worst conditions expected late tonight through about
mid-morning on Saturday. Ceilings as low as 200-300 ft may be
possible, especially farther east (e.g. KERI and KYNG), which is
also where fog may be possible. Already starting to see this
occur to the east of our forecast area, in western New York.
There is uncertainty with how dense the fog gets, though KERI
has the best shot at seeing visibilities of 1/4SM. Should
gradually see improvements as high pressure builds in from the
northwest via improving ceilings/visibilities and decreasing
sky cover.

Outlook...Scattered rain showers with non-VFR are possible this
Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Non-VFR with rain showers
expected Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Improving marine conditions expected over the weekend with north
winds of 5 to 15 knots tonight giving way to light and variable
winds on Saturday. High pressure will build over Lake Erie Saturday
then to the east on Sunday.

This sets the stage for low pressure to track into the Upper Great
Lakes on Monday with a strong cold front sweeping east across Lake
Erie during the afternoon and evening. A trough will remain across
the eastern Great Lakes with high winds through mid-week. Southwest
winds increase to 10-20 knots ahead of the front on Monday, becoming
westerly to 25 knots Monday night and west northwest at 20-30 knots
on Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for a fairly long
duration from Monday night into Wednesday. The westerly flow will
build waves of 6 to 9 feet on Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15/Saunders
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...10