Mentor, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

471
FXUS61 KCLE 150757
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
357 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today and persist
into Friday. A warm front will lift north across the area
Friday night into Saturday ahead of a low pressure system. This
system will extend a cold front east through the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Outside of the potential for frost late tonight into Thursday
morning, generally quiet weather is expected for the near term
period as high pressure builds across the region.

For this morning, beginning to see radar returns across portions
of central and southern Michigan with the highest precipitation
chances likely focused along the northern half of our area
through sunrise. However, it may be difficult for much rain to
reach the surface given upstream cloud decks remaining elevated
around 9 to 10kft, in addition to mainly trace amounts of
rainfall being reported at surface observation sites.

Otherwise, high pressure will gradually build south and expand
across the Great Lakes through Thursday, leading to seasonable
temperatures in the low to mid-60s. Clear skies and light winds
late tonight will result in low temperatures falling into the
low to mid-30s across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania where a Frost Advisory remains in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather will become more likely for the short term
period, particularly near the end of the period Saturday night.
A more widespread threat for frost and potentially freeze
conditions is likely Thursday night into Friday morning.

High pressure will remain in control for Thursday night into
Friday with clear skies and light winds resulting in low
temperatures falling into the low to mid-30s, and perhaps even
the upper 20s in some spots across Northwest Pennsylvania.
Anticipate the frost/freeze potential will be more widespread
compared to the previous night, with headlines likely needed
west towards the I-71 corridor. Otherwise, a warm front will
lift northeast through the area Friday night into Saturday which
may result in scattered rain showers, particularly across the
northern half of the area.

Much of Saturday should stay dry ahead of the approaching system
as increasing warm air advection results in well-above average
temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80. By late Saturday
night, widespread rain and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms
will begin to arrive from the west, aided by a modest south to
southwest LLJ of around 35 knots as as a large upper- level
trough moves east through the Upper Great Lakes. The recent
suite of model guidance is perhaps a touch slower which could
delay the heavier precipitation until late Sunday morning or
early afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active weather will continue for at least the first half of the
long term period as a cold front sweeps east through the area on
Sunday. Additional moderate to heavy rainfall and perhaps a few isolated
thunderstorms are most likely Sunday afternoon and evening,
particularly along and east of the I-71 corridor. Will need to
watch for a developing TROWAL Sunday night into Monday on the
backside of a deepening low pressure in the vicinity of the
Eastern Great Lakes, though uncertainty does begin to increase
given the volatility of the upper-level pattern.

High pressure will begin to build across the Tennessee Valley on
Monday and may expand into at least the Lower Ohio Valley,
though confidence is low on its northern extent. Another upper-
level trough is expected to race east across the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes by Tuesday, though confidence remains low on any
potential impacts across the area.

Mainly seasonable weather is expected to continue for the long
term period with highs in the low to mid-60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
High pressure is advancing into the region behind a cold front.
Some low level moisture is turning into some low VFR/MVFR
clouds across northern Ohio. There may be some brief ceilings
before the mid-level clouds enter later this morning. Northerly
flow off Lake Erie may allow for these 2500-4000 ft clouds to
continue under the mid cloud deck in North Central and Northeast
Ohio. Otherwise, a drier air mass with the high pressure system
will enter and clouds will exit south through the afternoon
hours with clear conditions expected tonight. Northerly winds
will be favored through the period around 10 kts. There could be
a brief gust to 20 kt during the late afternoon, if there is
some mixing with the clearing skies.

Outlook...Generally VFR is expected through Friday. Periods of
rain showers will bring likely non-VFR conditions late Friday
night through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the northwest Great Lakes will expand southeast
across the region today into Thursday. The pressure gradient over
the lake will relax and northerly flow will decrease in strength,
allowing for waves to subside below 4 ft. Therefore, the Small Craft
Advisory should be fine ending at 10 AM. There could be a brief
uptick in winds tonight over the central basin, but conditions
should stay below the need for another headline with 2 to 4 ft waves
on average. High pressure will shift east on Thursday night into
Friday and winds will shift to the east then southeast. A warm front
will push north across the lake on Friday night into Saturday and
south to southeast flow will increase with 10 to 15 kts of offshore
flow starting on Saturday morning. The lake will be in the warm
sector of a low pressure system well northwest in Canada and good
mixing should allow for elevated southwest winds to continue through
Saturday night. For Sunday, a strong cold front will cross the lake
and allow for winds to shift more westerly and increase to the 20 to
25 kt range. There will need to be marine headline considerations
for the weekend with this potent system. With strong west winds,
there will also likely need to be consideration for a low water
advisory for western Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     OHZ014-022-023-032-033.
PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ144>148.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic