Mansfield, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

510
FXUS61 KCLE 112021
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
421 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit to the east tonight as high pressure
builds in from the west. The high will influence the region
through the weekend before a warm front lifts into the region
Sunday night into early Monday. The warm front will be followed
by a cold front during the day Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low stratus will persist across portions of NE OH and NW PA
through Saturday morning or afternoon as a surface low departs
to the east. However, the clearing trend will continue across
the western half of the CWA as high pressure builds in from the
west. A few light rain showers/drizzle can`t be ruled out across
NE OH and NW PA tonight, but overall chances are low so capped
PoPs at slight chance (around 20 percent). Main concern over the
next 24 hours will be patchy to areas of fog across NE OH and
NW PA tonight into Saturday morning. There`s some potential for
patchy dense fog primarily across interior NW PA so will need
to assess the potential for an SPS or Dense Fog Advisory during
a future update. Otherwise, the forecast will remain dry through
the rest of the near term period as high pressure slides east
into the region Saturday. Some high res guidance hints at
isolated showers trying to sneak into the western fringe of the
area Saturday night, although the best rain chances will likely
remain to the west of the area through the end of the period.

Tonight`s lows will fall into the low to mid 30s. A slight
warming trend will begin Saturday and expect highs in the mid
40s to lower 50s with overnight lows in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge builds east across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday
then towards the East Coast on Monday. This occurs as a low pressure
tracks out of the Plains to the Upper Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday
night with an upper level trough moving east into the Upper Midwest.
Sunday will be dry and trending warmer with southerly flow
developing. A warm front lifts northeast across the area on Sunday
night and have low pops in the forecast with increasing overrunning
but dry air in the low levels will likely delay the onset of rain.
The associated cold front will sweep east across the area on Monday
afternoon as a 70+ knot jet streak at 500mb arrives from the west.
Timing of the front has sped up slightly over recent days and expect
to see scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms developing
during the afternoon. There will be a fair amount of cloud cover
ahead of the front and it is unclear yet how much instability will
reach the area. Temperatures have trended down slightly given the
cloud cover and faster frontal timing with highs in the low to mid
60s. With that in mind the SPC has an area that just clips our
southern counties highlighted in a potential day 4 risk of severe
weather so that will be something to monitor over the weekend.
Otherwise, breezy westerly winds and falling temperatures will
follow behind the front Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level trough deepens across the Great Lakes and New England on
Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected on Tuesday with pretty good
coverage expected, especially downwind of Lake Erie. Below normal
temperatures are expected and will struggle to climb more than 5
degrees or so with continued cold advection and breezy conditions
through the day. Many areas will have wind chills in the 30s with
northwest winds gusting to 25-35 mph. As temperatures fall into the
30s on Tuesday night, areas in the east may see a transition to snow
showers with a cold pool at 850mb of -6 to -9C.

The long range pattern remains active as this trough shifts off the
East Coast on Wednesday with the next trough pushing south out of
Canada Wednesday night into Thursday. Wednesday looks to dry out
quickly with warming temperatures on Thursday. The outlook by the
end of the week will have temperatures trending back down as that
next longwave trough arrives.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR from the west this afternoon
into this evening, although VFR ceilings may only reach as far
east as KMFD to KCLE. Additional MVFR will likely develop at
KCLE later tonight. Terminals east of a line from roughly KCAK
to KCLE will experience at least MVFR ceilings through the
remainder of the TAF period with a period of IFR/LIFR conditions
in lower ceilings and patchy to areas of fog tonight into
Saturday morning. Expect conditions at these terminals to
improve to MVFR by the end of the TAF period.

North to northeast winds 6 to 12 knots will continue through
this afternoon before diminishing tonight. Winds will likely
increase to 5 to 10 knots by late morning or early afternoon
Saturday.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings and visibility will continue into
Saturday afternoon across NE OH/NW PA. Scattered rain showers
with non-VFR are possible this Monday afternoon through
Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Improving marine conditions expected over the weekend with north
winds of 5 to 15 knots tonight giving way to light and variable
winds on Saturday. High pressure will build over Lake Erie Saturday
then to the east on Sunday.

This sets the stage for low pressure to track into the Upper Great
Lakes on Monday with a strong cold front sweeping east across Lake
Erie during the afternoon and evening. A trough will remain across
the eastern Great Lakes with high winds through mid-week. Southwest
winds increase to 10-20 knots ahead of the front on Monday, becoming
westerly to 25 knots Monday night and west northwest at 20-30 knots
on Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for a fairly long
duration from Monday night into Wednesday. The westerly flow will
build waves of 6 to 9 feet on Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...10