Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

763
FXUS61 KCLE 112012
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
412 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
We have cancelled the Heat Advisory due to some slightly drier
air that has moved into the area this afternoon. We have a round
of strong to severe storms exiting our far eastern Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania counties this mid afternoon. We may see
one more round of showers and storms late this evening into the
overnight with a cold front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again
late this evening into the overnight ahead of an approaching
cold front.

2) Slightly cooler and drier weather will move in behind the
cold front Friday through Saturday. Pleasant temperatures and
lower humidity will continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A mid level shortwave disturbance is currently tracking across
far NEOH and NWPA this afternoon which has helped flared up
scattered strong to severe convection over our far eastern
counties. The threat for storms with this initial round of
convection is just about to completely move out of NWPA and
will likely expired the severe storm watch here shortly. In the
wake of this mid level disturbance, some drier air has mixed
down from the upper atmosphere with dewpoints in the lower to
middle 60s across much of northern Ohio this afternoon.
Temperatures are also slightly cooler ranging from the upper 70s
over NEOH to the upper 80s over NWOH. We have cancelled the Heat
Advisory this afternoon due to that slightly drier air mixing
down which is keeping the heat index in check. If you have plans
for the rest of the afternoon and early evening, the weather
should be fairly quiet for the time being as we are in a lull
in between areas of convection.

The next and most likely the final round of showers and
thunderstorms that could impact our area will be sometime late
this evening into the overnight, possibly lingering into the
very early hours of Friday morning. This round of showers and
possible storms will be just ahead of the approaching cold front
that will move through the area early Friday morning. The
atmosphere may recover just enough ahead of the shortwave
disturbance later tonight to maintain a marginal to slight risk
for severe storms overnight. The better potential for
additional strong to severe convection would favor NWOH later
this evening into tonight. We will be watching the disturbance
and complex of convection near Chicago at this time as it moves
eastward towards NWOH late this evening. The main threat with
any strong to severe storms tonight will be damaging wind gusts.
The overall trend for convection tonight will be a weakening as
it moves from west to east. Some lingering showers and isolated
storms may still be over our far NEOH and NWPA counties around
daybreak Friday morning, slowly moving eastward and out of the
area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure will build in later Friday through Saturday across
the region with slightly cooler, more comfortable temperatures.
High temps on Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
lower humidity levels. Friday night low temperatures will be
pleasant in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Saturday will bring
more sunshine and fair weather with highs back into the lower
and middle 80s. The overall weather pattern will change with a
large, broad upper level trough developing over the Great Lakes
region later this weekend into next week. A cold front will
move through the area late Saturday night through Sunday with a
chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
SUnday afternoon will be knocked back down into the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees. High pressure and a fair weather day is
expected on Monday with highs in the lower to middle 70s. The
next chance for rain will arrive by middle of next week with a
low pressure system and cold front. Temperatures will remain in
the middle 70s to lower 80s going into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Cyclonic and primarily SW`erly to W`erly flow aloft and
embedded disturbances affect our region through 18Z/Fri. At the
surface, a trough axis continues to move E`ward, away from the
I-71 corridor, and should exit the rest of our region by
21Z/Thurs at the latest. Behind this trough axis, a ridge
affects our region before a cold front sweeps E`ward across
northern OH and NW PA between ~10:30Z/Fri and ~17Z/Fri.
Following the front, another ridge builds from the Upper Midwest
and vicinity through 18Z/Fri. Ahead of the cold front, our
regional surface winds trend S`erly to SW`erly around 10 to 15
knots and gust up to 20 knots or so at times, especially before
~23Z/Thurs. Behind the cold front, W`erly to NW`erly winds
around 10 to 15 knots are expected.

Mainly dry weather and VFR are expected through the TAF period.
However, there are several exceptions:

1.) Scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the
aforementioned surface trough axis are expected to exit eastern
portions of our region by 21Z/Thurs at the latest. These showers
and thunderstorms will likely be accompanied by brief MVFR to
LIFR and generate brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to
50 knots.

2.) A separate line of showers and thunderstorms should enter
our region generally from the west after ~02Z/Fri, weaken
considerably as the convection outpaces stronger vertical wind
shear and encounters a boundary layer stabilizing via nocturnal
cooling, and then dissipate in vicinity of the longitude of KMFD
during the first few predawn hours of Fri morning. This line of
showers/storms should be accompanied by brief MVFR to LIFR and
generate brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots,
especially in our I-75 corridor counties.

3.) Isolated showers should occur and isolated thunderstorms
may occur along and just ahead of the cold front. This convection
may be accompanied by brief MVFR or worse conditions.

Outlook...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are
possible this Sunday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement have been
issued for overnight tonight into at least late Friday morning.
Please click on the weather alert map on our homepage
(weather.gov/cle) for the details. A high pressure ridge
continues to exit E`ward before a cold front sweeps E`ward
across Lake Erie tonight through early Friday afternoon. This
front passage will be in response to a deepening low that
should track from near the western Great Lakes to near James
Bay. Ahead of the cold front, primarily S`erly to SW`erly winds
initially around 5 to 15 knots are expected to freshen to 15 to
25 knots overnight tonight and then veer to W`erly to NW`erly in
response to the cold front`s passage. Behind the front, W`erly
to NW`erly winds should ease quickly to around 10 to 20 knots
Friday afternoon through sunset Friday evening as a ridge
builds from the Upper Midwest and vicinity. Waves of mainly 3
feet or less are expected, but waves as large as 4 to 7 feet
are forecast for a time overnight tonight through late Friday
morning farther west and into the afternoon farther east.

Overall, quieter marine weather conditions (i.e. winds no
greater than 15 knots and waves no larger than 3 feet) are
expected Friday night through this Tuesday as primarily high
pressure ridging affects Lake Erie. However, on Sunday, SW`erly
winds around 15 to 20 knots are expected to veer to NW`erly as a
cold front sweeps SE`ward across Lake Erie. As a result, waves
as large as 4 to 5 feet are expected and another Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     morning for OHZ007-009.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 2 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     afternoon for OHZ010-011.
     Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Friday
     afternoon for OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Friday
     afternoon for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Friday for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for LEZ145-
     146.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka