Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

848
FXUS61 KCLE 201855
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
255 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Freeze Warning remains in effect for most of our CWA from 8
PM this evening to 10 AM Tuesday morning, except for Lucas,
Ottawa, Sandusky, Wood, and Hancock Counties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) One more unseasonably cold night tonight with below freezing
temperatures, especially in NE Ohio and NW PA.

2) Much warmer air will arrive Tuesday and persist through early
next week, but the pattern will turn active with numerous
chances for rain starting this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Water vapor loops show an amplified mid/upper pattern that
remains in place this afternoon characterized by a deep trough
over the eastern CONUS, closed low offshore of the west coast,
and broad ridge in between across the Intermountain West and
Plains. The eastern trough continues to keep our region in a NW
flow pattern, with temperatures running a solid 25 degrees below
normal this afternoon. Despite the cold, a large area of
surface high pressure sliding into the southern Great Lakes this
afternoon has allowed most of the lake-effect clouds to
dissipate, and this is supporting plenty of sunshine with
afternoon cumulus.

The cold airmass in place and influence of the surface high will
set up another cold night tonight. Much of NE Ohio and NW PA
should end up colder than last night given the mostly clear
skies and light winds, so expect widespread lows in the 25-30 F
range in NE Ohio and NW PA, with some low 20s in interior NW PA.
However, as the high drifts into the Appalachians tonight, low-
level southerly return flow will quickly begin in NW Ohio. These
S winds should increase to 5-15 knots by 09Z, and this combined
with increasing high level cirrus ahead of a warm front should
allow NW Ohio to be quite a bit milder. Lows will likely stay in
the low/mid 30s in much of NW Ohio. Kept Lucas, Ottawa,
Sandusky, Wood, and Hancock Counties out of the Freeze Warning,
and it is possible that the rest of NW Ohio and parts of north
central Ohio do not reach freezing either, but it will be close
either way. Even if some of the NW and north central counties in
the Freeze Warning do not reach freezing, they will still have
patchy frost. Temperatures will quickly warm after sunrise
Tuesday morning in the developing warm air advection pattern.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Much warmer, more pleasant temperatures remain on track to begin
Tuesday as the surface high continues to drift into the Mid
Atlantic states allowing for southerly return flow and resultant
warm air advection. A warm front will lift across the region in
the late morning and early afternoon. The main impact should
only be some high and mid-level clouds given a significant
amount of low-level dry air, but the latest HREF hints at some
light showers or sprinkles possible in NW PA where isentropic
ascent is maximized in the early afternoon. NBM slight chance
POPS look reasonable for this. Otherwise, the better chance for
rain will hold off until Tuesday night and early Wednesday
morning as a cold front sags across the region in response to a
mid/upper shortwave dropping through the continued longwave
trough over the Northeast CONUS. Low-level moisture return will
be very limited ahead of the front, so this will keep
instability weak, but synoptic support from a modest 60-75 knot
upper jet streak nosing into the central Great Lakes will
generate an area of showers and a few rumbles of thunder that
will slowly sink southeastward across the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Most rainfall should only be 0.25 inch
or less, with the greatest amounts likely in NW Ohio. Canadian
high pressure at the surface building into the central Great
Lakes behind the front will gradually dry out all areas
Wednesday as the boundary slowly pushes south and washes out,
with dry and mild conditions through Thursday. Daily lake breeze
development will keep lakeshore areas cooler Wednesday and
Thursday.

A more active but also lower confidence pattern will start to
develop Friday and persist through early next week. The closed
mid/upper low off the west coast will gradually move into the
northern Plains by Friday and evolve into a broader and larger
closed low while the old eastern CONUS mid/upper trough closes
off into a closed low offshore of New England. This will pinch
mid/upper ridging in between across the Ohio Valley Thursday and
Friday. The ridge will gradually shift as the northern Plains
closed low tries to come farther east, and that will slowly draw
moisture into our region late Friday and Friday night ahead of a
cold front. However, like all blocking patterns, timing of this
front is uncertain, and it will likely remain near or just west
of our region through next weekend keeping unsettled conditions
in place. Deeper moisture may arrive by Monday as the block
attempts to weaken and draw in a stronger SW flow from the
Mississippi Valley, but evolution is very uncertain Friday
through Monday. Chances for rain and occasional thunder are very
broad Friday night through Monday, and timing will be fine tuned
as we get closer since it certainly will not rain all the time.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure overhead will gradually move east through this
evening. Remaining lake enhanced cloud cover will continue to
fade over the next few hours giving way to widespread clear
conditions. A warm front will lift across terminals bringing
some high level cloud cover Tuesday morning and afternoon.
Northerly to northwesterly winds have occasionally gusted to
15-20 knots this afternoon. Gusts will diminish this evening
with light and variable winds returning tonight. Winds favor a
southerly component by Tuesday morning with afternoon gusts
20-25 knots possible.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Tuesday night and Wednesday in rain
showers, some isolated thunderstorms are also possible. Non-VFR
possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly quiet conditions with light northwest flow continue
across the lake under high pressure. The high will move east as
a warm front lifts across the lake on Tuesday which will
increase offshore southerly to southwesterly winds to 12-18
knots Tuesday afternoon. A cold front will cross south overnight
Tuesday into Wednesday morning bringing a brief period of
onshore northwesterly flow. High pressure re-enters behind the
cold front bringing a window of light easterly flow. A system
will enter the region towards the end of the week bringing
increased southerly flow on Friday. Low pressure is expected to
move across the lake on Saturday. No marine headlines are
expected at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     OHZ009>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13