Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

320
FXUS61 KCLE 012345
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
645 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak clipper system will move across the southern Great Lakes
region this evening followed by a lingering trough Friday. High
pressure will build into the Ohio Valley Saturday. Another weak
clipper will dive through the central Great Lakes Saturday
night, with high pressure briefly returning Sunday before
another clipper drops through the region Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Similar to this time yesterday, we have another clipper
approaching the region for the evening hours, but this one will
be much weaker and low impact. Regional radar and water vapor
loops as of mid afternoon show the mid/upper shortwave
associated with this clipper low diving SE out of Illinois,
Michigan, and Indiana. The exit region of an accompanying
135-140 knot H3 jet streak is leading to large scale forcing for
ascent, with a large area of light snow approaching from the
west and northwest. However, moisture is much more limited with
this evening`s event, so expect mainly nuisance snow.
Nevertheless, it will snow everywhere this evening, so increased
POPS to high chance in most areas. Expect amounts to be 0.5
inch or less, and this could lead to some slick roads that are
not treated.

The synoptic snow will quickly end in the 00 to 02Z timeframe,
and then attention will turn to lake-effect snow returning to
the region. Boundary layer flow will back to WSW this evening
ahead of the surface trough that accompanies the mid-level wave
(clipper system). RAP BUFKIT forecast soundings suggest
deepening moisture ahead of the trough with equilibrium levels
rising to 6500 to 7000 feet, as well as increasing Omega (lift)
within a deepening and saturated DGZ. This combined with the
long fetch and increased low-level convergence ahead of the
trough will reinvigorate a band of heavy lake-effect snow. This
will first be directed into the Buffalo, NY suburbs, but
boundary layer flow is expected to veer to about 270 degrees
(westerly) later this evening behind the surface trough, and
this will push the band inland across the I-90 corridor of Lake,
Ashtabula, and Erie Counties. The latest RAP and HREF guidance,
as well as the RGEM, have trended farther north with the band
placement overnight given stronger thermal convergence near the
south shore of the lake and overall less veered boundary layer
flow. This should limit the southwest extent of the band`s push
tonight, but there remains some uncertainty in exact placement.
At the present time, the most likely scenario is that the band
will start to affect the Erie, PA lakeshore around or just after
00Z then gradually push into northern Ashtabula County through
04Z and into Lake, far northern Geauga, central Ashtabula, and
northern Crawford Counties between 04 and 09Z. The band will
likely start to return back northward after 12Z Friday morning
as the boundary layer flow slowly backs while also slowly
weakening due to drier air and a lowering inversion. However, it
will take until mid afternoon to lift offshore of Erie County.

In terms of snowfall and impacts, instability will be a little
lower than last night since the lake temp is now 34F and 850 mb
temps will actually warm slightly overnight to an average of
13-14 C. This is leading to the marginal 6500-7000 foot
equilibrium level, so snow amounts will not be crazy. However,
the long fetch and convergence combined with the deep moisture
and lift through the DGZ will support snowfall rates of up to 1
inch per hour at times. This will lead to an additional 4 to 8
inches across Erie County through Friday where the Lake-Effect
Snow Warning has been extended through 21Z, and 2 to 5 inches
across Crawford County where an Advisory has been issued from
00Z to 21Z Friday. The greatest amounts in Crawford County will
be in northern portions of the county. Amounts in Ashtabula
County should average 2 to 5 inches in northern parts of the
county and 1 to 3 inches in the central part. Farther west,
generally 1 to 3 inches is expected in Lake and northern Geauga
Counties. If the band gets farther southwest for a longer
period of time, then some 4 inch amounts are possible in Lake
and Geauga, but only issued an Advisory for Ashtabula County at
this time since confidence is higher. The Advisory for
Ashtabula County is valid from 00Z to 18Z Friday.

Outside of the lake-effect area, a dry day is expected Friday,
with all areas drying out Friday night as high pressure builds
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will remain cold, with
highs in the low to mid 20s Friday and lows in the teens tonight
and Friday night. Wind chills will be in the single digits
tonight and Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain across the Ohio Valley Saturday but
will quickly weaken by evening as another weak and fast moving
clipper system dives through the central Great Lakes Saturday
night into Sunday morning as the deep mid/upper trough remains
entrenched across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. The mid-
level jet support with this clipper looks to mostly pass across
Ontario and into NY, but added chance POPS for light snow in far
NE Ohio and NW PA Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. The
boundary layer flow will also try to veer a little more
westerly behind the accompanying trough Saturday night, and with
continued lake induced instability and long fetch, at least a
weak lake-effect band could impact Erie County, PA. At this
time, 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible in Erie County Saturday
night into Sunday morning, with just nuisance amounts of a few
tenths in the rest of NW PA and NE Ohio. High pressure will
return to the Ohio Valley late Sunday into Sunday night to
support mainly dry conditions.

As stated above, with the broad mid/upper trough remaining
across the region, it will be a cold weekend, with highs staying
in the low/mid 20s Saturday and mid/upper 20s Sunday. Lows
Saturday night and Sunday night will fall into the teens again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active weather will continue through next week, but temperatures
will warm above freezing with a several day thaw. One more
clipper system will dive through the Great Lakes and eastern
Canada trough Monday. This will bring some light snow to mainly
far northern Ohio and NW PA, but impacts should be low. After
that, the trough will finally lift out allowing for a period of
Quasi-zonal flow across the CONUS that will lead to mild
Pacific- based air flooding eastward. Weak systems will impact
the region for mid to late week, with the most organized one
appearing to be late Tuesday into Wednesday, but timing is
uncertain. Nevertheless, rain will be the p-type with any
precipitation that falls Tuesday through Thursday as
temperatures warm well into the 40s during the daytime hours.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aloft, NW`erly flow and embedded disturbances affect our region
through 00Z/Sat. At the surface, a trough lingers over Lake Erie
and vicinity as a ridge builds gradually from the north-central
United States into the rest of northern OH and NW PA. Our
regional surface winds vary between SW`erly and WNW`erly around
5 to 15 knots. Periodic gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are expected
along and near the Lake Erie shore in far-NE OH and NW PA,
including at KERI. Widespread low-level ceilings are expected
through the TAF period and should primarily be in the 1kft to
5kft AGL range. However, these low clouds may scatter-out west
of roughly I-71 after ~21Z/Fri.

Widespread light snow associated with one of the aforementioned
disturbances aloft should exit our region generally from west to
east between ~01Z/Fri and ~08Z/Fri. Visibility should vary
between VFR and IFR in the widespread snow. Behind the
widespread snow, dry weather and VFR visibility are expected
across most of our area through 00Z/Sat. However, lake-effect
snow (LES) of varying intensity will stream generally E`ward
over/downwind of Lake Erie and impact far-NE OH and NW PA
through 00Z/Sat and impact KERI. The steadiest to heaviest LES
is expected this evening through about mid-morning Fri, amidst
greater and deeper low-level moisture. Visibility will vary
between VFR and LIFR in the LES.

Outlook...Primarily light LES with non-VFR should linger over
portions of NE OH and NW PA Friday night before dissipating by
daybreak Saturday. Periods of snow and/or rain with non-VFR are
possible this Saturday afternoon through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisories from Willowick eastward through
Ripley, NY continue as west winds around 15 to 20 knots produce
waves of 3 to 6 feet through Friday night. High pressure builds
in Saturday through Monday, providing a sustained period of
sub-advisory conditions across Lake Erie. Weak southerly flow
then develops Tuesday through Wednesday on the backside of the
departing high pressure.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for OHZ014-089.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 PM EST Friday for PAZ001-002.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for PAZ003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Saunders