Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

219
FXUS61 KCLE 241439
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
939 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lake-effect snow (LES) is shifting N`ward over/downwind of Lake
Erie and the primary snowbelt of NE OH and NW PA as the mean
low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air backs to W`erly
and eventually backs to SW`erly. Expect this LES to weaken,
overall, during the next several hours and dissipate very early
this afternoon as lake-induced CAPE wanes via a lowering/strengthening
subsidence inversion accompanying a surface ridge cresting
E`ward across our region as the portion of the ridge aloft
continues to build from the west. Additional LES accumulations
are expected to be one inch or less.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake-effect snow will taper off early this morning. After a
brief break through this afternoon, a clipper system will enter
the region and bring additional light snow areawide with
several inches of new accumulation expected NW PA.

2) A system will move through the Ohio Valley on Thursday and
may bring additional snow to the region. Trends with this system
remain south and the heaviest snow may miss the local area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Light lake-effect snow continues across the region this
morning. With the persistent Lake Huron connection into the
region, expect another inch or two of snow to fall through 7 AM,
mainly in the hills of NW PA. Trends should be down after
daybreak, as clouds are falling apart over Lake Erie and mean
low level flow should begin backing across the region.

There will be a brief break in the snow later this morning into
the afternoon before a clipper system moves through the Great
Lakes region. Snow will begin after dark and bring light
accumulations to the entire forecast area. In far NE OH and NW
PA, snow will be quick to ramp up tonight with a quick 2-4+" of
snow in a brief 4 to 6 hour window. Have gone ahead an issued
the new Winter Weather Advisory for southern Erie and Crawford
Counties in PA from 7 PM tonight to 1 PM Wednesday. Some
lake-effect snow will linger into Wednesday in PA for some
additional light accumulations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The next system in the sequence is a low pressure system moving
through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. This system
has continued to trend south, meaning that the precipitation
shield on the north side of the system is also trending south.
As of this morning, the forecast will have the main snow axis of
a couple inches of snow shifting south, mainly along and south
of US 30, but several 00z guidance members are suggesting that
this axis may go even further south and most of the area may
actually miss having any snow with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Remaining light lake-enhanced snow showers will diminish early
in the TAF period with lingering MVFR ceilings likely improving
to VFR by early afternoon. A period of VFR conditions is
expected this afternoon and early this evening before snow
arrives from the northwest after 00Z tonight. Non-VFR
conditions are likely in snow and lower clouds with the lowest
visibilities anticipated in heavier snowfall rates across NE
OH/NW PA. Snow will be relatively short-lived with the majority
of precip exiting to the southeast of the local area by 09Z or
10Z Wednesday morning, but expect MVFR ceilings to persist
after snow ends.

Winds will be out of the west/southwest at 6 to 12 knots this
morning before southwest winds deepen in response to the
approaching system this afternoon through tonight. Peak winds of
12 to 18 knots with gusts to 20 to 30 knots are likely late
afternoon through 06Z Wednesday with winds slowly diminishing
after 06Z. The strongest winds are anticipated from roughly KCLE
to KCAK west. There may be a very brief period of LLWS tonight,
but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this point.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in lingering light snow showers
across Northwest Pennsylvania during the day Wednesday.
Additional non-VFR possible in light snow as another disturbance
crosses the area Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest flow will develop this morning into this afternoon
and winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots as a cold front
approaches from the west this evening. Winds become a bit more
westerly behind the front on Wednesday, but expect wind speeds
to remain elevated through Wednesday afternoon. West/northwest
winds will relax Wednesday night before becoming more variable
as low pressure passes to the south of Lake Erie Thursday into
Friday morning. Offshore winds will develop and increase to 15
to 25 knots ahead of a cold front Friday night into early
Saturday.

While Small Craft Advisories remain suspended due to extensive
ice coverage across the majority of the lake, waves in ice free
areas may build to 3 to 6 feet during periods of stronger winds.
Any wind shifts and elevated winds will result in movement of
lake ice, which could impact shipping lanes.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Wednesday for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka/Sefcovic
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15