Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

799
FXUS61 KCLE 180640
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
240 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The conditional severe weather threat remains on track for
today, depending on how our area recovers from incoming rain and
clouds this morning. There is very high confidence in the need
for frost/freeze headlines on Sunday and Monday nights.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers with some thunderstorms with severe potential are
expected this afternoon, mainly between Noon and 6 PM. Damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two are all possible
with storms. The greatest potential for severe storms is in
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.

2) A cold air mass enters for Sunday and Monday, bringing below
normal temperatures to the area. Residual rain will be in place
on Sunday with some changeover to snow on Sunday night. The
colder air will allow for frost/freeze potential on Sunday and
Monday nights.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Early this morning, a QLCS line of storms is moving across
Indiana, weakening as it pushes east into a more stable
atmosphere. Storms are beginning to transition to an elevated
status as a strong outflow boundary is developing and pushing
ahead of the main convective cores. The remnants of this line of
thunderstorms will enter Northwest Ohio later this morning and
continue eastward, modifying the air mass ahead of the cold
front today.

The main show for today will begin closer to the Noon hour as a
new round of showers with some thunderstorms will develop with
energy moving aloft ahead of the main cold front. This boundary
will be the feature where showers and storms focus on
redeveloping in North Central Ohio. The wind field ahead of the
front will be favorable for severe weather with 40-50 kts of
southerly 925 mb flow and 60-70 kts of westerly 500 mb flow
aloft that will sustain storms. However, the question of the day
just comes down to thermodynamics of the atmosphere for the
amount and intensity of thunderstorms. The region dried out
significantly on Friday and surface dew points are barely
reaching 50 degrees early this morning. The remnant convection
entering this morning will add some moisture to the region, but
there will be some dependency on the southerly low level jet to
try and advect better moisture into the region. The other
question will then be how much instability will be in place. The
remnant convection this morning will introduce clouds and may
taper afternoon temperatures. Therefore, mid-to-upper 70s may
only be achieved in the eastern third of the forecast area,
which is where any activity could pick up later today.

In short, the severe threat for today remains conditional for
the eastern two-thirds of the area with the potential for an
organized severe weather threat or busting to just be some perky
showers and some embedded thunder with the cold front. The area
remains outlooked with a Slight Risk from SPC and all severe
hazards remain possible, although damaging winds will be the
most likely threat. The timing for the strongest storms remains
focused in the Noon to 6 PM time frame. Rain chances will
persist behind the main convection tonight with the upper trough
moving through the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
This evening`s cold frontal passage will be a jolting change
after several days of 70 and 80 degree high temperatures. Once
clouds and precipitation move out of the region, temperatures
will fall into the 30s across the area tonight. If winds can
settle down a bit, there is even a small chance for the need
for additional frost mention in the forecast and maybe a Frost
Advisory for western areas.

For Sunday, a residual trough over the area will allow for
light, scattered rain showers to continue, mostly focused in the
upslope areas, downwind of Lake Erie in NE OH and NW PA. On
Sunday night, colder air aloft along with some lake enhancement
will allow for rain to persist in NE OH and NW PA with some
changeover to snow becoming more likely and have push more snow
mentions in the forecast. Overall, accumulations will be
negligible, given warm surface/pavement temperatures that will
need to be overcome. High temperatures on Sunday will be a mix
of upper 40s to mid 50s. Low temperatures on Sunday night will
be in the upper 20s and lower 30s with widespread frost
expected. The growing season is in effect for the entire
forecast area and Frost/Freeze headlines will be needed for a
large portion of the forecast area.

Dry conditions are expected for Monday with incoming high
pressure. High temperatures will be cool in the 40s. Lows on
Monday night will be in the 20s and 30s with widespread frost
expected again. Another round of Frost/Freeze headlines will be
needed for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Conditions are starting off VFR this late evening but will
become MVFR as a cold front moves into the region Saturday
morning. The main concerns for aviation weather over the next 24
hours will be the scattered convection associated with the cold
front moving through the area on Saturday and some non-
convective low level wind shear through early Saturday morning.
The timing of the potential for scattered convection is
mentioned in the TAFs from east to west during this early
morning and again this afternoon. TEMPO groups are highlighting
the timing of potential impacts of MVFR to Lower end MVFR due to
the convection. Behind the front, MVFR ceilings and scattered
showers are expected through Saturday afternoon and evening.
Winds will increase through Saturday morning 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to 25 knots. Later Saturday morning into the afternoon,
winds will become southwesterly 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to
30 knots. The gusts will relax after 00z Saturday evening but
remain westerly around 10 to 12 knots.

Outlook...Brief/spotty non-VFR possible in scattered rain and
snow showers early Sunday morning through the first half of
Sunday night. Non-VFR possible Tuesday night and Wednesday in
rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly to southwesterly winds will increase Saturday morning
through the afternoon 15 to 20 knots ahead of a cold front.
Behind the cold front Saturday night, winds will become westerly
15 to 20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed
Saturday night into Sunday. Winds on Sunday will be westerly 15
to 20 knots then oscillate between westerly to northwesterly
while dissipating to 10-15 knots by Sunday night as high
pressure builds overhead. By Monday, winds will be northwesterly
around 10 knots. A southerly flow of winds 10 to 20 knots will
return late Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77