Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

695
FXUS61 KCLE 021108
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
608 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will cross Lake Erie this morning giving way to a ridge
building in from the Upper Midwest later today. Another trough will
slide southeast across the Great Lakes Region on Saturday night.
Broad high pressure will build east across the region Sunday
followed by a warm front lifting north across the area on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Band of moderate to heavy lake effect snow is oriented parallel to
the shoreline east of Grand River at 3 AM. Lake Effect Snow Warnings
and Advisories remain in effect until 1 PM for Ashtabula County and
4 PM for Erie and Crawford Counties in Pennsylvania. Snowfall
amounts will depend on the speed that this band pushes inland and
the transition from the his heavy single band of snow to more of a
multi-banded northwest flow set up. Snowfall rates within the
heavier band could be 1-2" per hour but only through 4 or 5 AM
before we see intensity start to decrease. This also corresponds
with the loss of deeper moisture that extends through about 11K feet
early this morning. Despite losing the deeper moisture over the
next couple hours, we maintain steep lapse rates and moisture
through the dendritic growth zone that descends below 7K feet
late tonight into the morning hours. Snow ratios remain
favorable at around 20:1 with temperatures in the upper teens to
low 20s. Patchy blowing of snow is possible with winds gusting
around 20 mph.

Otherwise, high pressure is centered over the Upper Midwest with
surface ridging expanding southeast into Ohio. Very dry air with
clearing across northern Wisconsin will expand across lower Michigan
this morning and then across Lake Erie through the afternoon. This
will eventually bring an end to the accumulating snowfall later
today. Southerly portions of the forecast area will see a fair
amount of sun today. With that said we will start the day off cold
with wind chills in the single digits and only recovering into the
teens this afternoon. Tonight will cold again but will have some mid
to high cloud spreading overhead late tonight through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Another shortwave trough, merging with energy dropping south out of
Canada, will cross the Central Great Lakes Saturday night. While it
will take some time to overcome dry air in the low levels, we do
expect snow to fill in across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. Snowfall amounts will tend to be an inch or less in
the Ohio snowbelt with 1-3 inches in Erie County Pennsylvania. This
quick shot of snow will end as high pressure builds overhead with
expanding subsidence and moisture depth decreasing through Sunday
morning from west to east.

This trough exits off the East Coast on Sunday while a ridge aloft
builds overhead. Southwesterly flow ramps up on Monday as surface
high pressure shifts east of the region and low pressure moves into
the Upper Great Lakes, lifting a warm front north across the area.
Precipitation will tend to be focused mainly north of the area but
could see a few light snow showers in the northeast. High
temperatures trend 7-10 degrees warmer on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A quasi-zonal pattern looks to set up for the start of the long term
forecast. Hard to determine this far out if we could be clipped by a
few rain showers next week as temperatures warm into the 40s. The
pattern does trend more amplified by Thursday with a trough crossing
the Great Basin and moist southerly flow bringing increasing changes
of rain on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Diminishing lake effect snow showers will likely continue at
KERI through most of this morning, but do not anticipate any
significant impacts to visibility. Clouds will persist across
most of the area today with low-end VFR and MVFR ceilings
expected areawide. Ceilings will likely fluctuate and there may
be periods of clearing, especially at terminals outside of the
snowbelt region. The most persistent lower ceilings are
anticipated in residual lake effect clouds at KERI/KYNG/KCAK and
possibly KCLE through this evening. Ceilings should improve to
VFR areawide tonight, however guidance suggests that MVFR
conditions could persist at KYNG through the overnight hours.

Winds will generally be out of the west at 5 to 10 knots this
morning before becoming more northwesterly and increasing to 10
to 15 knots this afternoon. A few gusts to 20 to 25 knots
possible this afternoon. Winds become light tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in snow showers Saturday night into
early Sunday in addition to Monday morning, primarily across
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Additional non-VFR
possible in rain showers Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect from Avon Point east
through 4 AM EST Saturday morning. West winds 15 to 20 knots and
waves of 3 to 7 feet (in ice free areas) are anticipated
through this evening before winds diminish and waves subside
late tonight into early Saturday morning. Once the current
advisories expire, there will probably be a break from marine
headlines through early next week. Relatively light northwest
winds are expected during the day Saturday with flow becoming
more westerly for a period Saturday night. Northwest winds will
likely increase to 10 to 15 knots on Sunday with winds shifting
offshore late Sunday into Monday. Southwest winds around 10 to
15 knots are expected Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     OHZ014-089.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ001-002.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15