Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

998
FXUS61 KCLE 181210
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
710 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes at the moment. The potential for snow
accumulations across parts of the area during the second half of
the weekend into Monday will be monitored in the coming days.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above average temperatures expected through Friday with periodic
rain showers during that time frame. Rivers will continue to be
monitored for rises due to ice jam potential.

2) Seasonable temperatures expected this weekend through early next
week with potential for snow showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front has started to lift through the western portion of the
area early this morning and will continue to push northward. Rain
showers can be seen along the front due to isentropic lift, though
the showers currently are fairly light and should push out to the
east into Pennsylvania before sunrise. There will be a few hour
period where it will be dry before the cold front moves through this
afternoon and early evening. QPF for the day has gone down over the
past few forecast runs as the southern extent of the precipitation
was in question. Currently, most of the area will receive around a
tenth to two tenth of rain with higher amounts in northeastern Ohio
and northwestern Pennsylvania of two to four tenths. There will be
some potential for those higher amounts to reach half an inch, but
those will tend to be localized. Additionally, there will be a bit of
instability to accompany the showers and along the cold front to
where a rumble of thunder or two will be possible.

With the passing warm front, temperatures have stayed in the mid to
upper 40s and will rise up into the mid to upper 50s with areas in
the west and southwest of the CWA reaching into the 60s. With the
rising temperatures and the rainfall expected today, there could be
a minor response in rivers and streams across the region. Localized
ice jams will also be possible as ice along rivers has begun to
break apart. Potential will span the next few days before
temperatures begin to moderate and rain changes over to snow this
weekend. Will need to continue to monitor the rivers for any
response.

A LLJ of 30 to 50 knots will move over the region throughout the day
today that will support strong wind gusts at the surface. Winds will
peak around the time of the cold front passage this afternoon with
gusts 20 to 30 mph and subside into the evening. There will be
another chance for stronger winds on Friday as a more potent low
pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region where wind gusts
of over 30 mph will be possible.

Another chance for rain returns on Friday as a low pressure system
lifts out of the mid-Mississippi valley into the Great Lakes region.
A warm front will pass through the region late Thursday night into
early Friday morning that will have some instability along with it,
so a few thunderstorms could be possible. Along with the
instability, there will be modest shear ahead of the front that
may support stronger wind gusts as thunderstorms move into the
region, though the greatest chance for this will be in the
southwestern portion of the CWA. Instability should wane with
the passing, occluding cold front early Friday morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Behind the cold front on Friday, temperatures will begin to moderate
to a more seasonable levels as colder air moves in from the
northwest. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 30s to low 40s and
drop down into the mid 30s on Sunday. The trend will continue into
early next week with highs near 30 across the region.

Low pressure will track to the south of the region this weekend as
an upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes. This will bring
the potential for precipitation to the region Sunday into early next
week. With the colder air moving in, accumulating snow showers will
be possible. There will be the potential, depending on how the low
to the south progresses, that some wet synoptic snow will fall
across the region. On the back side of the low, with the west to
northwesterly flow, lake enhanced snow showers will be possible that
could linger into early next week. Ridging will begin to build in to
the region on Monday that will push any remaining precipitation out
and dry weather is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A warm front extending from low pressure over Minnesota will
lift northeast across the region today. An initial area of rain
near ERI will move east out of the area through 13Z. Meanwhile
rain is expanding across Indiana and will move east across the
region through 18Z. The trend has been for slightly higher
ceilings today and have primarily MVFR in the forecast at
TOL/FDY while while locations from CLE and MFD eastward are
still expected to have a window of IFR. Poor conditions are
likely to develop at ERI this afternoon and persist into tonight
as the front stalls overnight. Low IFR conditions are expected
with dense fog possible. Elsewhere some patchy fog is also
possible at TOL and terminals in Northeast Ohio where skies
clear and moist boundary layer conditions remain.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible late Thursday into Friday
in rain showers. Non VFR returns Saturday night and continues
through Sunday with snow likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Movement of the ice fields on Lake Erie are possible today as
southwesterly winds ramp up to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon as a
warm front lifts north across the lake. Ice has been weakening due
to warm temperatures and ice floes may close open shipping channels,
along with ridging and rafting of the ice. Winds are expected to
decrease fairly quickly this evening and then develop out of the
east by Thursday. Easterly winds increase to 10 to 20 knots on
Thursday night and then veer to southwesterly at 30 knots with the
passage of a cold front on Friday. The strong winds on Friday may be
enough to loosen or move the fast ice west of the Lake Erie
Islands. Later in the weekend winds shift to northwesterly at 15
to 25 knots and may push ice back towards the south shore of
the lake.


People are urged to stay off the Lake Erie ice this week! Ice floes
are likely and may strand people venturing out on the ice, which may
break away from shore or the Lake Erie Islands.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10