Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

790
FXUS61 KCLE 151211 AAA
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
811 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A High Wind Warning has been issued for Erie County Pennsylvania and
the Wind Advisory has been expanded to Summit, Portage, and Trumbull
counties. Northwest Ohio has been lowered from a Slight Risk to a
Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for late tonight. Raised
pops outside of the snowbelt on Monday night where a light
coating of snow is possible.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Windy conditions return today, with a Wind Advisory in effect for
much of the area and a High Wind Warning in effect for Erie County
Pennsylvania. Damaging winds will also be possible late tonight in
Northwest and North Central Ohio as showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms bring strong winds along a cold front.


2) Wintry weather returns Monday night and Tuesday with wind chills
dropping into the single digits. Accumulating snow is likely in the
primary snowbelt region, with scattered snow showers elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A dynamic system will impact the region over the next 24 hours as an
upper level trough deepens across the Mid-Mississippi Valley today
then becomes negatively tilted overnight with a closed low lifting
north across Lake Michigan. Surface low pressure is located over
Kansas and is forecast to lift a warm front north across the area
this morning as it tracks northeast towards Chicago. The local area
will undergo rapid warming today with much of Ohio reaching the
upper 60s to near 70 in the west, while the warm front is slow to
pass Northwest Pennsylvania where temperatures top out in the upper
50s.

High winds remain the primary concern today as a strong wind field
arrives this afternoon. A low level jet with speeds of 60-70 knots
will pass over Northwest Ohio. As mixing heights increase today,
areas in the Wind Advisory will see wind gusts increase to 50 mph or
greater. The extent of mixing is a concern, especially in NW Ohio
where mixing heights could be near 5k feet and could possibly tap
into some of the higher gusts. The placement in the warm sector
today does not provide any downward momentum transfer and HREF
probabilities of exceeding 60 mph wind gusts are quite low through
the afternoon. While an upgrade to a High Wind Warning in NW Ohio
can not be ruled out, the greatest likelihood is for winds to remain
more in the Advisory range.

For tonight, downsloping winds will continue to strengthen in Erie
County Pennsylvania. The southeasterly wind direction is favorable
with a tightening gradient and wind speeds at 925mb increasing to
around 65 knots. This tends to be an effective set-up to mix the
stronger wind gusts down to the surface and the High Wind Watch has
been upgraded to a High Wind Warning. The strongest winds are
expected between 8 PM and 2 am along the Erie lakeshore with
several hours of Advisory level winds on either side.

The next concern is the arrival of the cold front wrapping in from
the southwest as the system occludes overnight. The Storm Prediction
Center has backed off slightly on the convective risk, removing most
of the Slight Risk area from Northwest Ohio with a Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms from the I-75 corridor to just west of I-77.
Instability is a limiting factor for thunderstorms tonight but the
concern remains for damaging winds with showers along the cold
front. The wind field will be very strong when the front arrives,
with speeds at 850mb of 60-70 knots. The strongest winds are
oriented at a 30-40 degree angle to the front initially which is
less favorable than if the winds were perpendicular. As the front
moves eastward, they are expected to become increasingly more
parallel to the front and that may help to reduce forward
motion with decreasing intensity towards sunrise. Trends will be
monitored this evening as this line of showers approaches and
severe weather warnings are still possible overnight. The
greatest threat is wind gusts to 70 mph between the hours of 2
AM and 6 AM.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A return to winter-like conditions will occur behind the strong
cold front as temperatures fall throughout the day on Monday
and are largely in the mid to upper 20s on Tuesday. Temperatures
at 850mb fall by about 25C from 06Z Mon to 06Z Tues. The
effects of the cold will be amplified by the windy conditions as
we reside on the southern side of a broad trough remaining
across the eastern Great Lakes. Wind chill values are forecast
to be in the single digits Monday night into Tuesday morning
with winds gusting to 25 mph. Precipitation type will transition
back to all snow by Monday evening and the upper level trough
axis pivots through Monday night bringing scattered snow
showers to much of northern Ohio. Precipitation amounts are
expected to be light and road temperatures may still be
marginally warm from Sunday, but a light coating of snow is
possible and could result in slick conditions as temperatures
continue to fall. Most of northern Ohio will only see about a
half inch of snow but additional accumulations will be possible
in the snowbelt heading into Tuesday.

A uni-directional west southwest flow will be in place across
Lake Erie on Monday night. Lake to 850mb delta T increases to
about 20C with moderate instability for lake enhanced snows. We
do start to lose moisture on Tuesday both above 700mb and with
dewpoints falling into the single digits upstream of Lake Erie.
Snow showers are expected across much of the snowbelt, shifting
slightly inland Tuesday morning, then shifting back closer to
the lake Tuesday evening as the surface ridge builds in from the
southwest. Light accumulation of generally 1-4 inches are
expected across the snowbelt with the higher amounts possible
where westerly bands set-up. We will need to monitor intensity
of snow bands for any locally higher amounts and continue to
refine the snowfall forecast as mesoscale details such as wind
direction/moisture depth come into better agreement.

Fortunately the cold does not stick around very long with upper
level ridging extending into the Upper Ohio Valley towards the
weekend. Normal highs are in the mid to upper 40s for mid March
and we expect to see most of the area in the 50s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Winds will quickly pick up this morning, and expect S to SE
winds to increase to 20-25 knots by this afternoon, with gusts
of around 40 knots. Locally higher winds are possible along the
lakeshore and KERI late this afternoon and evening, where gusts
to 50 knots could occur due to downsloping. After a brief lull
at most terminals early tonight, S winds will start to gust to
over 40 knots again ahead of a strong cold front. A line of
showers will accompany this front, and these could bring down
locally stronger winds as well as drop cigs and vis to MVFR.
Tried to time this line at each terminal from west to east late
tonight and early Monday morning by giving 2 hour windows of
prevailing showers and MVFR, but this line could speed up or
slow down by an hour, so exact timing remains uncertain.

Outlook...Non-VFR will likely linger in scattered rain showers
changing to snow showers on Monday with lake effect snow
possible Monday night into Tuesday across the Snowbelt.

&&

.MARINE...
Active marine conditions return today as winds increase ahead
of a potent low pressure system lifting out of the central
Plains. Winds will quickly turn SSE behind a warm front this
morning and increase to 15-25 knots, so Small Craft Advisories
kick in at 15Z and run through tonight as SSE winds further increase
to 20-30 knots. These are warm advective winds over a cold lake
surface, so that will prevent gale force winds from mixing down
until the trailing cold front crosses Lake Erie Monday morning.
Behind the cold front, winds will turn WSW and increase to 30-40
knots Monday. Will keep the Gale Watch for Monday and Monday
night with this morning`s forecast package since it is 3 periods
out, but Gale force winds are a slam dunk in the cold air
advection Monday and Monday night.

W winds will gradually diminish to 15-20 knots Tuesday then
turn S at 10-20 knots by Wednesday and Wednesday night ahead of
a weak front and associated trough crossing the southern Great
Lakes. High pressure attempting to build in behind this feature
should lead to light and variable winds Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>031-036-037-047-089.
PA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     PAZ003.
     High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Monday
     for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LEZ142>149.
     Gale Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for
     LEZ142>149-162>169.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas