Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

099
FXUS61 KCLE 310444
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1144 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Overall, the forecast and key messages remain on track. Cold
temperatures are still expected through this weekend and an
active weather pattern is possible during mid to late week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Very cold weather persists through Sunday night with subzero
minimum temperatures and wind chills of 10 degrees below zero
or colder expected. Temperatures may approach record low values
on Saturday morning. The cold weather will continue to pose a
significant risk of exposure to people and animals in addition
to damage to infrastructure.

2) There are intermittent light snow chances through Saturday night
and Monday/Monday night. There may be some marginal travel
impacts with any repetitive snow shower activity.

3) There`s potential for an unsettled weather pattern mid to late
week next week. Accumulating snowfall and travel impacts are
possible, although confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An Arctic high will remain in place over the region over the
next couple of days, resulting in continued hazardously cold
temperatures especially overnight. Tonight`s lows are expected
to fall well below zero with the coldest temperatures of 10 to
15 degrees below zero expected in the southern half of the
local area. Climate sites have another shot at meeting or
exceeding record low temperatures early Saturday morning (see
Climate section below). Winds will be relatively light
(generally 6 mph or less), although the light winds will still
manage to produce widespread wind chills in the -10 to -20
degree range. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in
effect from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM Saturday morning. Some
cirrus will likely be across portions of the area overnight into
early Saturday morning which could allow for some insulation,
but locations that see prolonged clearing and typical cold spots
may experience low temperatures and wind chills that are
several degrees colder than currently forecast. With that being
said, any locations that meet Extreme Cold Warning criteria
should be relatively localized and confidence in those exact
locations is too low to warrant the issuance of an Extreme Cold
Warning.

During the day Saturday, wind chills will remain near or a few
degrees below zero and highs will be in the teens. Another Cold
Weather Advisory may be needed Saturday night into Sunday morning;
temperatures will "only" be a few degrees below zero, but elevated
winds could produce wind chills as low as -15 degrees.

The persisting frigid temperatures will continue to produce possible
impacts on infrastructure including frozen and burst pipes and dead
car batteries. There will also be impacts on people and animals
that do not take necessary cold weather precautions. Limit time
outdoors, wear protective clothing to prevent frostbite and
hypothermia, and be sure that animals limit time outdoors.

Temperatures will begin to trend warmer (and by warmer we mean a
bit less bitterly cold) next week with highs in the 20s
anticipated for the majority of the week. However, as mentioned
in the previous discussion, the continued subfreezing
temperatures may continue to produce impacts on infrastructure
through next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
After a brief break in persistent snow today, light snow
chances will return to the local area tonight into Saturday as a
trough pushes south across Lake Erie. Precipitation will
largely be lake-enhanced, although the minimal open spots/cracks
in ice on Lake Erie will keep snowfall rates light. Similar to
previous days, any snow that occurs could produce slippery
travel due to sub-freezing pavement temperatures. Widespread
light snow showers may move east across the area Monday and
Monday night as a shortwave pushes east across the region with
similar minor impacts possible.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
By the middle of next week, low pressure will move east across the
southeastern CONUS and possibly as far north as the Ohio Valley. The
deterministic ECMWF places the northern fringe precipitation shield
across the southern reaches of area during the middle of the week,
but the 12Z deterministic GFS has shifted the low farther south.
Overall, confidence in this system remains low given model
fluctuations and spread in the track of the low. Will need to
monitor this system since a northward shift in the low could result
in accumulating snowfall and potential impacts, especially in
southern portions of the CWA.

Guidance favors a more robust system dropping southeast out of the
Great Lakes Friday with troughing persisting over the region into
the weekend. While it`s still 7+ days away and a lot will likely
change with synoptic pattern, it`s possible that this system
produces accumulating snowfall across the local area late this
week and potentially into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Surface trough comes through with lingering low level thermal
troughing in its wake which will translate to MVFR ceilings and
off and on flurries/light snow through the daylight hours
Saturday, ending late evening. Keeping visibilities at 6SM, but
may need 5SM at times. Winds become north/northwest around
10kts Saturday.

Outlook...Periodic non-VFR due to low clouds and/or snow
expected through Saturday night. Non-VFR possible again after
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
While Lake Erie is mostly ice covered, generally good marine
conditions are expected into next week. Winds will be below 15 knots
over the weekend then increase to 10 to 20 knots on Monday ahead of
a knots about clipper system crossing the Upper Great Lakes. Winds
will veer to northwest behind the associated weak cold front Monday
night into Tuesday. A system will track through the Ohio Valley
during the middle of next week which could result in a period of
enhanced NE winds.

Ice will continue to thicken on Lake Erie over the weekend as an
arctic airmass remains over the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record cold low temperatures are possible on Saturday morning.
Here are the daily record cold low temperatures for January
31st:

Date    Toledo      Mansfield    Cleveland    Akron        Youngstown   Erie
01-31   -10(2019)    -7(2019)    -5(1971)     -5(1948)     -9(1948)     -6(1899)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...26
MARINE...10