Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

226
FXUS61 KCLE 221203
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
803 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
QPF has continued to trend down today, with most areas only seeing
light to moderate rain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain early this morning will give way to scattered
showers late this morning through the afternoon before ending from
NW to SE. Most areas will only see 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain.

2) Dry weather and continued below normal temperatures expected
Tuesday and Wednesday before periodic rain chances return Thursday
through the weekend along with a warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The latest Infrared satellite and water vapor loops show the
mid/upper shortwave trough axis now crossing the western Great
Lakes, with RAP analysis placing the surface low over southern
Indiana. Broad warm air advection and isentropic ascent to the
north of the associated warm front extending east from the low
has been driving a shield of light rain, but it has struggled to
efficiently reach the ground all night. This is due to both an
abundance of low-level dry air and the best synoptic support
displaced just to our north. RAP analysis shows an 80+ knot H3
jet streak crossing Lake Erie on the southeast flank of the
shortwave early this morning, so the greatest forcing for ascent
beneath the left exit of that jet streak has been over southern
Lower Michigan and southern Ontario. This has set up the
strongest mid-level frontogenesis band over that area, and
regional radar loops support this in showing the higher
reflectivity bands up that way.

Despite the best forcing displaced to the north, a fairly steady
light rain will continue through sunrise driven by the warm air
advection and isentropic ascent until a dry slot moves in from
SW to NE. As the low progresses ENE across northern Ohio late
this morning through the early afternoon, the trailing cold
front will slowly sag through the area. The RAP and other hi-res
guidance depict better upper jet support as the trailing front
sags south, and weak instability should combine with this to
generate some heavier convective showers late this morning
through the afternoon. Would not be surprised if some areas see
slightly better rainfall with this cold frontal round compared
to the early morning round due to the convective elements, but
overall, continued to lower QPF significantly from previous
forecasts. Most areas will only see 0.25 to 0.75 inches by this
evening as the lingering showers end from NW to SE. The clouds
and showers will keep temperatures very cool today, with highs
in the upper 60s/low 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Canadian high pressure will build down across the Great Lakes in
the wake of this system tonight and Tuesday and eventually
settle over the Ohio Valley by Wednesday. This will support dry
conditions and plenty of sunshine, but a continuation of broad
mid/upper troughing across much of the northern tier of the
CONUS will keep temperatures below normal

The pattern will become active again starting Wednesday night
and Thursday as a mid/upper shortwave drops through the broad
longwave trough and pushes a weak cold front into the region.
The amount of moisture return ahead of this front is uncertain
since the troughing will keep the main pool of higher PWATs and
instability shunted well to our south, but the pattern seems to
support the idea that the front will become quasi-stationary
across the Ohio Valley region late Thursday into the weekend as
it becomes aligned parallel with the west-east flow on the
southern edge of the broad trough. The front in the vicinity and
multiple shortwaves dropping through the trough will allow for
periodic showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday night
through the weekend. At this point, it looks like the greatest
coverage will be with the initial frontal passage Thursday then
again Saturday as a stronger shortwave drops through the Great
Lakes. Temperatures will gradually warm Thursday through the
weekend but will remain a little below normal until a better
surge of warmth and humidity potentially arrives Sunday in
response to a ridge building upstream over the Mississippi
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
As low pressure moves into western Pennsylvania this morning,
the steady rain is shifting eastward with it. Portions of
northwest and north central Ohio will experience drizzle or
intermittent showers as a front is pulled south behind the low.
IFR ceilings have also expanded on the northwest side of the low
pressure system and will persist through mid-afternoon. Some
daytime heating is expected to enhance showers moving southeast
across the area this afternoon in the 17-20Z window and may
impact MFD/CAK/YNG. Isolated thunder can not be ruled out but
probabilities are too low to include. Stratocu clouds will
erode from the northwest towards this evening with the potential
for stratus to develop as clouds clear. This seems more likely
in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania where IFR ceilings
may return. Northeast winds of 8-12 knots will back to the north
and may gust to around 20 knots near TOL/CLE/ERI. Winds will
decrease tonight as the low pulls away and high pressure builds
in from the north.

Outlook...Non-VFR continues into Monday night with low
ceilings. Non-VFR possible again in rain showers Wednesday night
through Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds will ramp up to 20-25 knots on Lake Erie today as
low pressure tracks from Central Ohio east into Pennsylvania. Waves
will build to 4 to 8 feet with onshore flow. Small Craft Advisories
and Beach Hazards are in effect through 4 PM west of the Lake Erie
Islands and 10 PM east of the Islands. North winds will decrease
tonight as the low departs and high pressure strengthens over the
Great Lakes.

The next low pressure system will pass north of Lake Erie on
Thursday with a cold front stalling just south of the lake on
Friday. Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will veer to northwesterly
but look to remain at 15 knots or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     OHZ003-007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ009>011.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ142-
     143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ144>146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10