Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

920
FXUS61 KCLE 101419
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1019 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased forecast high temperatures slightly for this afternoon
in NE OH and NW PA based on multiple factors, including the
continuation of synoptic-scale low-level WAA and the
expectation that diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer
will allow low clouds to scatter-out the rest of this morning
into afternoon. As for shower and thunderstorm potential through
this early evening, the corridor of greatest concern is along
and near the southern shore of Lake Erie. This is where the
synoptic and wavy surface front, continuing to settle S`ward
across southern Lower MI, southern ON, and vicinity, should
stall early this afternoon through early evening as multiple and
weak surface lows move NE`ward along the front. A Lake Erie
lake breeze should form this afternoon through early evening
along/near the lakeshore from the NE side of Cleveland through
Erie County, PA and augment the front. Within the warm and moist
sector south of the surface front, diurnal heating is expected
to result in weak to moderate boundary layer destabilization,
steep low-level lapse rates, and moderate DCAPE. Weak elevated
CAPE will continue to build north of the surface front as a
low-level return flow of warm and very moist air from the Gulf
continues and steep mid-level lapse rates near 7C per km linger
over our area amidst moderate to strong effective bulk shear.
These fairly steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to
sizable MUCAPE in the hail growth zone. Convergence/moist ascent
along the surface front should trigger surface-based showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon through early evening,
especially in NE OH and NW PA, where the lake breeze will
strengthen convergence and moist ascent along the surface front.
These surface-based storms may produce damaging straight-line
winds and small to marginally-severe hail. North of the surface
front (i.e. along the upper-reaches of the front), elevated and
organized storms capable of producing small to marginally-severe
hail are possible. Please see discussion below for further
details.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Active weather returns this evening through Wednesday.
Severe thunderstorms are possible.

2.) Primarily colder temperatures and additional periods of
unsettled weather are expected later this week through early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
There is stalled frontal boundary located from west to east
across the southern Great Lakes region this morning. In the mid
and upper levels, there is a west-southwest flow aloft. Warm,
moist air advection is pooling south of this frontal boundary
setting up the stage for a battleground with storms.

As for today, some scattered showers and thunderstorms may try
to develop closer to the stalled frontal boundary across the
southern Great Lakes. Locally, this scattered convection would
be closer to the lakeshore or over Lake Erie. This convection is
not the main show. An upper level trough will move from the
Central Plains eastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes tonight
into Wednesday. Scattered strong to severe convection is
expected to develop west of our area this afternoon and early
evening. These showers and storms will move into northwest Ohio
and western Lake Erie later this evening and overnight. All
modes of severe weather is possible with Damaging winds as the
main threat. The secondary threat will be isolated tornadoes as
the area is highlighted by SPC as a low 2 to 5 percent
probability. Some small to large hail could be possible. Most
of northern Ohio and northwest Pennyslvania is in the marginal
risk, northwest Ohio is under a slight risk for severe storms
tonight. See the latest Day 1 outlook from SPC for the latest
severe weather potential.

A surface low will track northeastward from southeast Michigan
through southern Ontario on Wednesday with a trailing cold
front. This cold front will move from west to east during the
midday and afternoon on Wednesday. SPC has most of northern
Ohio and northwest Pennyslvania in a slight risk for severe
weather. Northwest Ohio is under a marginal risk level. The main
severe weather hazard on Wednesday will be damaging wind gusts
followed by an isolated tornado threat. SPC again has the area
highlighted in a low 2 to 5 percent probability for a low end
tornado threat. Some small hail could also be possible. A broken
line of strong to severe convection is expected to develop along
that cold front pushing through the area Wednesday afternoon.
Any kinks or surges in the line of storms will be the favored
area for damaging wind gusts and possible QLCS tornadoes. Behind
the cold front Wednesday evening, temperatures will drop and
rain will end from west to east.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
A somewhat unsettled and colder weather pattern is expected
later this week through early next week. A fast moving clipper
system will track through the Great Lakes region on Friday. This
system will bring a round of rain showers and windy weather.
With this onset of the rain showers moving in Friday morning,
there could be some west snow mixed before temperature warm up.
It will become windy on Friday with southwest to westerly winds
20 to 30 mph with gusts easily over 40 mph. We will have to
watch trends for a possible wind advisory.

The next weather system to watch and potentially more impactful
will be Sunday through Monday. A deep upper level trough will
develop over the central U.S. and into the Great Lakes region
Sunday into Monday. A stronger low pressure system will track
through the southern Great Lakes Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. A strong cold front will move through Sunday night. Ahead
of that cold front, temperatures will be mild on Sunday in the
60s. Behind the cold front Sunday night, temperatures will crash
into the 20s. Rain will change over to snow as the colder air
moves in and light snow will continue into Monday. The
widespread light snow will transition to lake effect snow as
much colder air aloft wakes or the lake effect Monday into
Tuesday. Several inches of snowfall may be possible early next
week. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Mixed-bag of low-end VFR and MVFR ceilings across the TAF sites
this morning. A mix of low-end VFR and MVFR ceilings will persist
through this morning, before lifting to VFR or even scattering
out by this afternoon. Attention then turns to later tonight as
a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move
east into the area. Te highest confidence for direct impacts
will be along the lakeshore near the warm front (TOL/CLE/ERI)
where tempo groups have been introduced. Have also introduced
vcts elsewhere as nocturnal convection is anticipated to
increase in coverage areawide, though confidence in placement is
low.

Winds are generally out of the south to southwest this morning
8 to 12 knots. Winds will mainly remain out of the south to
southwest through the TAF period, 8 to 12 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
night into Wednesday followed by rain briefly transitioning to
snow Wednesday night into Thursday. Non-VFR may return in
scattered rain/snow showers on Friday. Confidence is increasing
for widespread strong west to southwest winds on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will continue to monitor the potential for organized, strong
thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday, particularly across the
west and central basins of Lake Erie. Otherwise, a cold front
will briefly usher in west to northwest flow of 20 to 25 knots
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The next period of
concern will be on Friday as a strong low pressure system moves
east through the Great Lakes. West to southwest winds continue
to trend stronger, with 25 to 35 knots becoming more likely,
especially Friday afternoon. A Gale Watch may be needed in the
next couple of days. Will also continue to monitor another
system on Sunday which could first usher in south to southwest
flow of 25 to 30 knots, shifting towards the west Sunday night
into Monday behind a cold front.

Above average temperatures into Wednesday and elevated winds
will result in continued shifting and decay of ice across Lake
Erie.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily high temperatures are forecast to approach records through
March 11th. Here are the record warm high temperatures at area
climate sites for March 10th and 11th.

Date    Toledo      Mansfield    Cleveland    Akron       Youngstown   Erie
03-10   72(2021)    72(1973)     72(1973)     73(1973)    69(2021)     72(2021)
03-11   76(1990)    72(1990)     73(1977)     72(1977)    70(1977)     72(2021)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77/Jaszka
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn