Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

575
FXUS61 KCLE 180007
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
807 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast remains largely unchanged this afternoon. Only slight
adjustment was adding a fog potential over Lake Erie and the
immediate lakeshore tonight, but this should quickly dissipate as
showers and storms push east.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across portions of the area
as a strong cold front moves east on Saturday. Primary concern is
damaging winds, although large hail and a tornado or two are all
possible.

2) Colder airmass returns on Sunday and Monday, bringing near normal
temperatures and an isolated chance of light snow showers late
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As a strong low pressure system moves east through the region, an
associated warm front and cold front will accompany on Saturday.
These two boundaries will quickly follow one another with the warm
front pushing north Saturday morning, followed quickly by the cold
front late Saturday morning through the afternoon/evening hours.
Initial showers will approach the far western counties late tonight,
slowly pushing east into Saturday morning. These showers/storms will
primarily be along and ahead of the robust cold front. The severe
threat increases further east in the CWA (closer to the I-71
corridor and east) as diurnal instability increases to 1000-1500
J/kg. This CAPE will be the final piece to the puzzle as strong
frontogenetic forcing, a strong LLJ, ample moisture, and additional
dynamic support for mid-level energy will all accompany this system.
Strong winds are the primary hazard associated with these storms.
Given the positioning of the shear to the boundary, cannot rule out
some isolated convection, which may pose additional hail concerns.
Finally, as the LLJ nudges north and increases the low level shear,
cannot rule out a tornado or two across the area, especially in the
most organized convection. To highlight this severe threat, SPC has
issued a Day 2 Slight Risk (2 of 5) for I-71 and east and a Marginal
Risk (1 of 5) elsewhere.

Even will such a robust set-up, the timing of the precipitation and
increasing cloud coverage will play a vital role in enhancing or
inhibiting severe potential later in the day. If showers move in
much earlier than currently forecast, instability will likely remain
marginal at best, leading to a more isolated severe event. On the
contrary, if the showers slow their arrival, instability values will
have more time to increase, likely resulting in more widespread
severe storms. Will have to continue to monitor the severe threat
over the Midwest today to get the best timing for the CWAs timing
tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Behind the robust cold front that pushes east on Saturday, a much
cooler airmass will build in, ushering in below average temperatures
for Sunday and Monday. A surface trough lingering over the area
Sunday may allow for some scatter, light snow showers, but no
accumulation is expected, especially given how warm it has been the
last week. This warmth has allowed for the growing season to
officially begin as vegetation comes to life. Unfortunately, with
this push of cold, there is a possibility of a widespread frost
and/or freeze to occur both Sunday and Monday nights. Temperatures
are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s with light winds near
the surface. Will continue to monitor trends in model guidance, but
worth giving a heads up this far out. Temperatures will begin to
rebound back towards average by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR across the board as of 0z. Confidence in brief fog/mist at
ERI this evening before southerly winds kick in has decreased. A
weakening batch of showers and storms will spread in from the
west early Saturday morning. Confidence in shower activity (and
perhaps some thunder, especially at TOL/FDY) is highest from
CLE-MFD points west with this round, with the activity likely
dissipating before reaching eastern terminals Saturday morning.
Rain chances ramp up again from west to east through the
afternoon along and ahead of a cold front, with potential for
thunderstorms to develop before the front clears the area by
late afternoon. Confidence in afternoon thunderstorm potential
is highest at YNG and ERI, though is possible as far west as
CLE/CAK and perhaps MFD. Some showers will linger behind the
cold front, especially towards YNG and ERI. Ceilings will
generally remain VFR ahead of the front outside of precip,
though a period of MVFR is likely just behind the front.

Winds will gradually shift southerly and increase to 7-15kt
overnight tonight into early Sunday, with a few 20-25kt gusts
possible. South-southwest winds increase more to 10-18kt with
gusts 25-30kt ahead of the cold front on Saturday, shifting
west-northwest at 12-18kt with gusts 25-30kt behind the front
later Saturday afternoon and early evening. A period of low-
level wind shear is included at all sites except for YNG late
tonight into Saturday morning as a strong south-southwest low-
level jet overspreads a near-surface inversion.

Outlook...Brief/spotty non-VFR possible in scattered rain and
snow showers early Sunday morning through the first half of
Sunday night. Non-VFR possible Tuesday night and Wednesday in
rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds expected across Lake Erie tonight
which coupled with a moist airmass will give way to another
period of marine dense fog this evening and overnight. Southerly
winds will increase to 15-20 knots early Saturday morning ahead
of a cold front. Given the offshore flow, highest wave heights
will remain across the open waters. Behind the cold front, winds
shift westerly while remaining between 15-20 knots. By Saturday
evening winds turn northwesterly while remaining elevated which
will allow for wave heights across the nearshore waters of the
western basin to build to 3 to 4 feet Saturday night into Sunday
morning. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. Winds
will oscillate between westerly to northwesterly while
dissipating to 10-15 knots by Sunday night as high pressure
builds overhead.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...13