Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

948
FXUS61 KCLE 271954
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
354 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Wind Advisory has been issued for Erie County, PA from 11 PM
today to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for SE`erly to S`erly downslope
surface winds up to 30 mph, gusting up to 55 mph.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
evening through Wednesday night. Gusty winds are expected in Erie
County, PA late this evening into most of Tuesday morning,
especially along and within several miles of Lake Erie.

3.) Below-average air temperatures are expected Wednesday through
this Saturday night with multiple opportunities for frost formation.
A warming trend should begin this Sunday, May 3rd.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A ridge at the surface and aloft exits E`ward the rest of today
through Tuesday and is followed by cyclonic SW`erly to W`erly flow
aloft over our CWA. Multiple shortwave disturbances embedded in the
cyclonic flow aloft will traverse our region. At the surface, a
primary low downstream of a prominent shortwave trough axis will
deepen as it wobbles NNE`ward from the Upper MS Valley to James Bay
the rest of today through sunset Tuesday evening. Deepening of this
low pressure center at the surface and aloft will contribute to the
development of a S`erly to SSW`erly low-level jet of about 45-55
knots that will translate E`ward over our CWA this evening through
mid-morning on Tuesday. In response to the low`s track, a surface
warm front should sweep NE`ward through our region between about 4
AM and midday Tuesday before a surface cold front begins to sweep
E`ward across our CWA Tuesday afternoon and nears the OH/PA line by
sunset Tuesday evening. Low-level WAA ahead of and behind the warm
front will contribute to an unusually-mild night tonight. Lows
should reach the 50`s to lower 60`s around daybreak Tuesday.
Tuesday`s highs should reach the mid 60`s to mid 70`s amidst
persistent low-level WAA ahead of the warm front and within the warm
sector, and peeks of sunshine.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS:

Multiple rounds of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected to traverse our region generally from SW to NE between
about 5 PM today and mid-morning tomorrow as weak CAPE, including
elevated CAPE, and moderate to strong deep layer bulk shear allow
ongoing convection over/near IL/IN late this afternoon to persist
amidst SW`erly mean mid-level flow. Additional showers and
thunderstorms should develop over our region late this evening
through tomorrow morning due to moist isentropic ascent along the
upper-reaches of the warm front and enhanced moist isentropic ascent
associated with the low-level jet amidst the aforementioned
thermodynamics and kinematics. SPC has far-western portions of our
CWA included in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms capable of
producing damaging straight-line convective wind gusts this evening
through tonight. However, this risk appears to be very marginal due
to the expectation of weak instability and the development of
sizable DCIN via nocturnal cooling-related stabilization of the
boundary layer this evening through daybreak tomorrow. Additional
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday morning
through sunset Tuesday evening courtesy of low-level convergence and
moist ascent along the cold front and pre-front surface trough axes,
which should release weak instability amidst mainly moderate deep
layer bulk shear.

WIND ADVISORY:

SE`erly to S`erly downslope surface winds up to 30 mph, gusting up
to 55 mph, are expected in Erie County, PA late this evening through
mid-morning on Tuesday for the following reasons: tightening of the
synoptic MSLP gradient in response to the aforementioned deepening
low; low-level winds increasing with height promoting mechanical
mixing of the boundary layer up to ~1kft AGL, which should allow the
mixing to tap into the lower-reaches of the aforementioned low-level
jet. Note: multiple recent runs of the HRRR suggest the upcoming
convection may be accompanied by a fairly-strong cold pool and wake
low at/near the surface this evening into the predawn hours of
Tuesday, and the resulting mesoscale MSLP gradient may be tight
enough to generate advisory-criteria wind gusts for several hours
across most of our CWA. Will let the evening shift reevaluate the
potential need to expand the Wind Advisory.

----

During Tuesday night through Wednesday night, cyclonic SW`erly to
W`erly flow aloft should persist over our region as a primary trough
axis moves from the northern Great Plains and vicinity to the
central Great Lakes. At the surface, the cold front should drift
E`ward across the rest of our CWA by daybreak Wednesday as a new low
develops NE`ward along the front from the Ark-La-Tex region to the
Mid OH Valley. This low should then develop farther NE`ward along
the front and reach southern QC by daybreak Thursday as a surface
ridge builds very slowly from SK and vicinity. Additional periods of
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night
through Wednesday as sufficient instability, including elevated
CAPE, is released by the following: low-level convergence/moist
ascent along the front; low-level frontogenesis resulting from low-
level WAA and CAA induced by the frontal cyclone; moist isentropic
ascent preceding shortwave trough axes in the cyclonic flow aloft.
Lows should reach the mid 40`s to lower 50`s around daybreak
Wednesday and be followed by daytime highs only in the 50`s to lower
60`s as net low-level CAA occurs behind the cold front. Isolated and
lingering rain showers should end generally from west to east
Wednesday night as the upper-reaches of the cold front depart and
the aforementioned surface ridge builds generally from the
northwest. Partial clearing, easing surface winds, and net low-level
CAA should allow lows to reach the mid 30`s to mid 40`s around
daybreak. The coldest lows may be accompanied by patchy frost
formation in the valleys of interior NW PA.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Cyclonic W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave trough
axes should impact our region on Thursday through Saturday night as
the aforementioned surface ridge continues to build slowly from the
northern and central Great Plains, and vicinity. This weather
pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will maintain an
unusually-cold air mass across northern OH and NW PA. Daytime
highs should reach mainly the upper 40`s to upper 50`s daily on
Thursday through Saturday. Overnight lows should reach mainly
the lower 30`s to lower 40`s around daybreak Friday, Saturday,
and Sunday, respectively. Will continue to monitor the potential
for additional frost formation and the need for a Frost
Advisory or Freeze Warning. Note: isolated rain showers may
develop during the late morning through early evening hours of
Friday and Saturday due to self- destructive sunshine and low-
level convergence/moist ascent along subtle surface trough axes
attendant to the shortwave troughs aloft. During the late
morning and early evening hours, the atmospheric column may be
cold enough for a few wet snowflakes to mix with the rain.

On Sunday, the surface ridge should build in earnest from the west
as a shortwave ridge aloft does the same. Current odds favor dry
weather courtesy of stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridge.
Clearer sky and greater daytime heating should allow late afternoon
highs to reach the mid 50`s to mid 60`s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR across the board this afternoon and early evening. A
weakening batch of rain (and perhaps a little bit of thunder,
especially towards FDY and MFD) will spread west to east across
the area late this evening and overnight. Most terminals can
expect up to a few hours of rain with at least some transient
MVFR with heavier rain...brief IFR is not ruled out. The odds of
thunder at a given terminal are still too low for inclusion, but
will monitor trends and adjust as needed if confidence
increases. Rain exits east late tonight into early Tuesday
morning, with a few lingering lighter showers and likely more
widespread MVFR ceilings ahead of an approaching cold front that
will sweep through late morning through the afternoon Tuesday.

South-southeast winds of 10-17kt with a few gusts to 25kt are
expected through early evening. Winds, gusts, and wind shear
potential become less clear for several hours later this evening
into the overnight. There`s high confidence in a 45-55kt
southerly low-level jet sweeping east across all terminals
between about 0-9z as surface winds remain south-southeast. It
is on the fence for if low-levels will become stable enough for
true low-level wind shear at times, or if it will remain a bit
more unstable and gusty. TAFs carry both LLWS and some gusts
across the board, either way it will be rough in the low-levels
while taking off and landing. A brief period of stronger south-
southeast wind gusts is possible early Tuesday morning behind
the departing rain, especially at ERI where gusts over 40kt are
likely for a few hours. Winds gradually veer more south-
southwest while remaining a bit elevated and gusty into Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings continue until a cold front sweeps
through on Tuesday. Non-VFR likely again in showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
South-southeast winds become strong tonight into early Tuesday
behind a warm front, with 15-25kt sustained winds expected and
some higher gusts to 35kt possible, especially along the
eastern lakeshore. Waves will be largest in the open waters, but
the strong offshore flow can pose a hazard to smaller craft even
in the nearshore. A Small Craft Advisory kicks in at 8 PM this
evening for all nearshore waters. Winds shift more west-
southwest on Tuesday behind a cold front that will cross the
lake during the late morning through mid-afternoon hours. Winds
will be strongest through early Tuesday morning, but may be
elevated at times until the cold front clears the lake later
Tuesday afternoon. Mainly light winds are then expected for the
remainder of the week, though a brief period of elevated 15-20kt
north-northeast winds are possible on Wednesday as weak low
pressure tracks through the Ohio Valley.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
     PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Tuesday for LEZ142>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan