Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

610
FXUS61 KCLE 021853
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
253 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is now an areawide Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe
weather on Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity persist through the end of the week.

2) Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms return this evening
onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Heat and humidity continue one more day before the ridge of high
pressure breaks down. Extreme Heat Warning for all of Ohio and Heat
Advisory for Northwest Pennsylvania remain in effect through 8 PM
Friday evening. Overnight lows tonight and Friday night will remain
in the 70s. Forecast high temperatures on Friday rise into the mid
90s areawide with heat index values of 100-108F. Temperatures will
remain warm this weekend, but slightly lower in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Heat index values may top out around 100F on Saturday,
but will be largely dependent on coverage of any showers and storms.
With the continued heat and limited overnight relief, the majority
of the forecast area remains under Extreme HeatRisk (Level 4 of 4).
For people without effective cooling, especially heat-sensitive
groups, this level of heat can be deadly.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Slight chance to chance PoPs for showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast for tonight as a disturbance rides over the top of
the ridge. Any precipitation should occur after 8 PM tonight
and remain confined to lakeshore zones in Northern Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. The SPC has included counties along the
lakeshore in their Day 1 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe
weather as any stronger thunderstorm that develops may be
capable of producing strong to damaging winds.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms should increase tomorrow as
the ridge of high pressure exits the region. SPC has upgraded the
Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook to a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across
the entire area with a primary hazard of damaging wind gusts. Best
potential for showers and thunderstorms will occur during evening
hours. However, the confidence in exact timing and placement of
strong to severe storms remains low at this time given weak forcing
aloft. Strong to severe storms will remain possible through the
weekend as multiple shortwaves aloft move overhead. SPC has
introduced a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for Saturday. Will hang on
to daily PoPs in the slight chance to chance range into early next
week.

Given the very moist airmass in place with PWATs of 1.5 to 2 inches
any thunderstorm that does develop will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for
Excessive rainfall both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
FEW/SCT cumulus clouds around 5 kft will continue this afternoon
and are expected again Friday afternoon. Southwest winds around
8-12 knots during the afternoon hours today and tomorrow with
lower winds (around 5 knots) tonight. Gusts up to 20 knots are
possible during the afternoon.

There is a very low chance for thunderstorms near KERI tonight.

Outlook...Greater potential for scattered storms Friday through
Sunday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours each
day.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds around 10-15 knots will persist through the
weekend, and wave heights will generally be around a foot or a
less in the nearshore zones of Lake Erie, with some potential
for 2 ft waves with the effect of the lake breeze during the
afternoon. With low pressure moving into the region after
Sunday, east to northeast flow on Monday becomes northerly on
Tuesday, with winds speeds around 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Very hot and humid weather is expected through Friday. Record
warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
07-02   98(2011)       97(1931)       97(1954)       98(1931)       98(1931)       94(1963)
07-03   100(1911)      93(2020)       98(1949)       97(1911)       98(1898)       93(1934)
07-04   100(2012)      96(2012)       98(1990)       99(1911)       99(1897)       99(1990)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders