Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

852
FXUS61 KCLE 100503
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1203 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes from the previous package. Winds will quickly
diminish through this evening and overnight. Snow totals have
been increased slightly (2 to 4 inches) across the snowbelt
late Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds will quickly diminish this evening.

2) Widespread rain returns Saturday, followed by colder
temperatures and snow showers on Sunday.

3) Additional rain and/or snow showers are expected Tuesday
night into Wednesday, with precipitation transitioning to all
snow by Wednesday night into Thursday. Some lake effect snow may
follow on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will quickly build from the west this evening and
overnight as low pressure exits northeast into Quebec. Wind
gusts remain elevated this afternoon, with recent observations
ranging anywhere from 45 to 55 mph, the highest of which are
located closer to the lakeshore. Winds will quickly diminish
from west to east through this evening, becoming light and
variable overnight. Lows will remain relatively mild for this
time of the year with temperatures in the 30s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Low pressure will move northeast into the Great Lakes region on
Saturday and modestly deepen as flow becomes briefly cut-off in
the upper-levels. A mix of light and steady rain is expected
Saturday afternoon and evening, with the highest totals around a
quarter of an inch located generally along and east of the I-71
corridor.

As the low exits northeast into Quebec on Sunday, a trough will
swing south across the region, ushering in a colder air mass
and a brief burst of snow, particularly across Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania where some lake enhancement is
possible in the afternoon and evening. Snow totals will
generally range in the 2 to 4 inch range across the snowbelt.
Areas outside of the snowbelt may receive anywhere from a
dusting up to a quick inch. Snow is not expected to fully
transition over to lake effect as flow quickly shifts to the
southwest late Sunday night into Monday as a clipper slides just
to the north of the area.

Gusty winds are expected on Sunday with the trough passage with
gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range in the late morning and
afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

A large upper-level troughing regime appears favored to develop
across the Eastern CONUS on Wednesday, ushering in a return to
below average temperatures on Thursday and beyond. Initially, a
clipper system will bring rain mixed with snow across the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will extend a cold
front south through the region on Wednesday, with rain quickly
transitioning to snow behind the front. Although some lake
effect is possible behind the front on Thursday, the intensity
remains uncertain given shallow moisture above 850 mb.

Below average temperatures are anticipated on Thursday and
Friday with highs in the 20s and wind chills in the low teens to
single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
MVFR conditions will persist early this morning as winds shift
from a more northerly to easterly direction at <7kt. After a
brief period where the MVFR ceilings may try scattering out to
VFR Saturday morning, widespread rain and lower ceilings
quickly spread northeast between 17-21z. Most sites will likely
experience a period of IFR ceilings and/or visibility during
the steadiest rain, though confidence in this has decreased a
bit this cycle...kept TOL and FDY MVFR at lowest, and could see
how CLE and ERI struggle to get to IFR, though for now
maintained a window of IFR there. A cold front sweeps through
from west to east between 23z Saturday and 4z Sunday, which will
sweep out the steadier rain and lowest ceilings. Winds will be
south-southeast at 5-10kt through most of Saturday afternoon,
shifting west-southwest and increasing to 10-16kt with gusts to
around 25kt with the cold frontal passage.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible at times area-wide in snow showers
late Saturday night and Sunday, persisting Sunday night across
far NE OH and NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong westerly winds are expected across Lake Erie through this
evening before sharply decreasing to less than 10 knots after
sunset. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings remain in effect
for this.

Quiet weather ensues on Saturday followed by another batch of strong
westerly winds on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories are nearly a
guarantee at this point, though a short Gale Warning may be possible
in the eastern basin where winds may approach 35 knots at times late
Saturday night into Sunday. Northwest winds on Sunday gradually
dissipate to around 20 knots Sunday night, before becoming southwest
and remaining 15 to 25 knots through at least Wednesday morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Saunders