Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

048
FXUS61 KCLE 141148
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
648 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough lingers over Lake Erie today as a ridge builds from the
north-central United States. The ridge then builds eastward across
our entire region tonight through Monday. However, on Monday, a
separate trough should sweep southeastward over and near Lake
Erie, and weaken the ridge temporarily.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Stark and
  Mahoning Counties until 7 PM EST this evening.
-The Winter Weather Advisory has been upgraded to a Lake Effect
 Snow (LES) Warning for Lorain, Medina, and Summit Counties, and
 is in effect until 7 AM this Monday.
- LES Warning remains in effect until 7 AM this Monday for
  Cuyahoga, Portage, Geauga, Lake, Ashtabula Counties in NE OH
  and Erie and Crawford Counties in NW PA.
- The Winter Weather Advisory for Trumbull County remains in
  effect until 7 AM this Monday. Considered upgrading this
  advisory to a warning, but less-persistent LES and a snow
  shadow in the lee of the higher terrain of Geauga County and
  vicinity should limit additional snow accumulations in
  Trumbull County.

Aloft, a shortwave trough axis extending from Georgian Bay to
the southwestern Great Lakes at 3 AM EST this morning moves
generally ESE`ward to eastern NY and eastern PA by sunset this
evening. Behind the shortwave trough, a ridge builds from the
northern Great Plains and vicinity through sunset Monday
evening. However, another shortwave trough should advance
SE`ward from the northwestern Great Lakes to eastern Great Lakes
between daybreak and sunset on Monday and weaken the ridge
temporarily. At the surface, a trough lingers over Lake Erie
today as an Arctic ridge continues to build from the north-
central United States to the OH Valley. This ridge will then
build generally E`ward across our entire region tonight through
Monday. However, on Monday, a separate surface trough
accompanying the latter shortwave trough should sweep generally
SE`ward over/near Lake Erie and weaken the ridge temporarily.
This weather pattern at the surface and aloft will allow below-
normal temperatures to persist across northern OH and NW PA.
Morning lows mainly in the 5F to 15F range are expected today
and Monday. Afternoon highs should reach only the mid teens to
mid 20`s today and the upper teens to upper 20`s on Monday. Wind
chills are expected to be as cold as -5F to -10F around
daybreak this morning and as cold as 0F to -10F around daybreak
Monday morning.

The above-mentioned weather pattern evolution at the surface
and aloft will maintain a sufficiently-cold/moist mean low-level
flow for continued lake-effect snow (LES) over and downwind of
~3C Lake Erie through sunset Monday evening and cause the mean
low-level flow direction to be variable. The LES will be steady
to heavy at times, especially through this evening, and again
between daybreak and sunset on Monday, when low-level moisture
is expected to be greater/deeper and promote moderate lake-
induced CAPE (LICAPE). Upstream moisture connections to Lakes
St. Clair and Huron will contribute to periods of steady to
heavy LES through this evening. During periods of heavy LES,
snowfall rates up to 1-2" per hour are expected, especially
through this evening, as model soundings continue to depict a
crosshair signature (i.e. low-level convergence along the major
axes of LES bands yielding strong and maximized ascent
collocated with a cloudy DGZ about 1 km deep). Mean low-level flow
is expected to veer gradually from W`erly or WNW`erly to NNW`erly
through this early evening and allow multiple bands of LES to impact
the snowbelt of NE OH/NW PA and vicinity. Later this evening through
daybreak Monday, mean low-level flow will back gradually to W`erly,
which will allow LES bands to drift N`ward and eventually impact
only our primary snowbelt counties and vicinity. Fresh LES
accumulations through daybreak Monday are expected to be highly
variable and primarily amount to 4" or less. However, additional
snow accumulations of 5-8" are expected in heavier and more-
persistent LES, which should be focused across the following areas:
northern Lorain, southwestern Cuyahoga, northern Medina, and central
Summit Counties through this afternoon due to frictional surface
convergence/resulting mesoscale low-level frontogenesis along the
southwestern shore of Lake Erie, which should contribute to upstream
generation of a heavier snow band that will then stream over the
aforementioned areas; the higher terrain just east of Cleveland due
to a combination of upslope enhancement of LES and an upstream
moisture connection to Lake St. Clair for a time; the higher terrain
of southern Erie County and northern Crawford County in PA due to
upslope enhancement of LES and an upstream moisture connection to
Lake Huron for a time. Note: light/scattered LES showers originating
over Lake Michigan should impact locations roughly along and
southwest of a Toledo to Mansfield to Millersburg line through about
daybreak this morning, but any associated snow accumulations are
expected to be less than 1".

On Monday, LES over/downwind of Lake Erie should continue to
shift N`ward and eventually stream NE`ward into primarily
portions of western NY as mean low-level flow backs from W`erly
to SW`erly. However, during the SW`erly flow regime, the LES may
brush the lakeshore at times from roughly Lake County, OH through
Erie County, PA. Moist isentropic ascent ahead of the above-mentioned
and latter shortwave trough axis should trigger scattered snow
showers over NE OH and NW PA on Monday. The moist isentropic
ascent-related snow and weak to moderate LICAPE over Lake Erie
should lead to the seeder-feeder process and enhancement of the
LES. Additional snow accumulations between daybreak and sunset
on Monday should be 3" or less. Outside the LES and moist
isentropic ascent-related snow, fair weather is expected today
through sunset Monday evening as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the aforementioned ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
During Monday night, the shortwave trough will exit SE`ward from
the eastern Great Lakes region as the above-mentioned ridge
aloft continues to build from the north-central United States
and vicinity. At the surface, the ridge will crest E`ward
through our region. Primarily dry weather is expected as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. However, LES is
expected to linger over/downwind of Lake Erie through the wee
hours of Tuesday morning and then dissipate by daybreak as
LICAPE wanes via synoptic low-level dry air advection and a
lowering subsidence inversion in the wake of the shortwave
trough axis. Before dissipating, the LES should impact portions
of our primary snowbelt counties at times, especially roughly
along and north of I-90, as the mean low-level flow of cold and
moist enough air varies between SW`erly and WSW`erly. Nighttime
LES accumulations should be 2" or less. Lows should reach the
upper single digits to lower 20`s around daybreak Tuesday.

Dry weather is expected Tuesday through Tuesday night as the
surface portion of the above-mentioned ridge exits E`ward, the
ridge aloft crests E`ward over northern OH and NW PA, and
stabilizing subsidence continues to affect our CWA. Low-level
WAA on the backside of the surface ridge should be accompanied
by afternoon highs in the upper 20`s to mid 30`s on Tuesday.
Lows should reach the lower 20`s to lower 30`s by midnight
Tuesday night before readings moderate during the predawn hours
of Wednesday morning as a deepening trough at the surface and
aloft begins approaching from the west and causes low-level WAA
to strengthen.

On Wednesday, the narrow trough at the surface and aloft should
move quickly E`ward across our region and be followed by ridging
at the surface and aloft building from the Upper Midwest and
vicinity by the afternoon and early evening. Afternoon highs
should reach the mid 30`s to lower 40`s as net low-level WAA
persists. Note: moist isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
axis aloft and convergence/sufficiently-moist ascent along the
surface trough axis may trigger a few wet snow and/or rain
showers over/near eastern Lake Erie and NW PA Wednesday morning
through early afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During Wednesday night through Thursday, the ridge at the
surface and aloft exits E`ward as another deepening trough at
the surface and aloft and the attendant strong cold front
approach from the northern Great Plains and eventually the
western Great Lakes. Lows should reach the 20`s to lower 30`s
Wednesday evening and be followed by moderating readings by the
predawn hours of Thursday morning. Highs should then reach the
lower 40`s to lower 50`s on Thursday as low-level WAA continues
to strengthen due to deepening of the trough at the surface and
aloft. A low-level return flow of warm and moist air from the
Gulf will undergo isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of the front
and primary trough axis aloft, and allow periods of precip to
affect our region Wednesday night through Thursday. A mix of
snow and rain is in our official forecast Wednesday night before
changing to just rain on Thursday as temperatures and wet-bulb
temperatures at the surface and aloft moderate via WAA. Will
have to monitor this portion of the forecast closely, including
how exactly the vertical profiles of temperature and wet-bulb
temperature are projected to evolve and influence surface precip
type.

At this point, it appears the cold front and primary trough
axis aloft will sweep E`ward through our region Thursday night
and be followed by a ridge at the surface and aloft building
from the west through Friday. Lows should reach the upper teens
to mid 20`s around daybreak Friday. Highs should reach the upper
20`s to lower 30`s Friday afternoon. Additional periods of precip
are expected Thursday night due to convergence/moist ascent
along the cold front and moist isentropic ascent ahead of the
front and trough axis aloft. Behind the surface cold front,
rain should change to snow as the atmospheric column cools via
the wet-bulb effect and CAA at the surface and aloft before
widespread precip ends behind the trough axis aloft. Will
monitor trends in NWP model guidance for accumulating
snow potential. Overnight Thursday night into Friday, the
environment should become cold and moist enough to support LES
over/downwind of Lake Erie, but all of the following remain very
uncertain at this time: mean low-level flow direction; LICAPE
magnitude; placement, intensity, and amounts of LES.

For Friday night through Saturday, the ridge should exit E`ward
and be followed by cyclonic W`erly flow aloft, embedded
shortwave disturbances, and surface troughing overspreading
northern OH and NW PA from the west. LES should end Friday
night as LICAPE wanes via a N`ward warm front passage and strong
low-level WAA on the backside of the departing ridge. Lows should
reach mainly the mid teens to mid 20`s Friday night, prior to
the warm front passage. On Saturday, low-level WAA should allow
afternoon highs to reach the upper 30`s to mid 40`s.

Periods of synoptic snow and/or rain should occur Friday night
through Saturday in relation to the following: moist isentropic
ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and ahead of
the shortwave trough axes; convergence/moist ascent along
surface trough axes accompanying the shortwave troughs. Will
also have to monitor this portion of the forecast closely,
including how exactly the vertical profiles of temperature and
wet-bulb temperature are projected to evolve and influence
surface precip type.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
BKN/OVC skies persist this morning, though some clearing
upstream may get into KTOL-KFDY-KMFD area at times today. Lake
effect snow is ongoing downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania, though a few showers could impact
KMFD over the next couple hours. Lake effect snow bands will
contribute to widely variable visibilities, though within snow
bands, IFR and lower is expected. Within the heaviest bands, 1/2
SM and lower could be briefly possible at times. Conditions
improve from west to east tonight, with lake effect snow become
focused near the lakeshore east of Ashtabula by Monday morning.

Northwest winds of 12-18kt with gusts 25-30kts are expected
today before quickly diminishing after sunset. Winds become
southwest Monday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are possible with lake effect snow
showers in northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania
through Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the entire nearshore
zones of Lake Erie due to the elevated winds and waves. Water
temperatures remain at, or below, 40 degrees across much of the
lake, with air temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s. As a
result, there is a minor risk for freezing spray through Sunday
morning.

Winds will become northwesterly overnight and increase to 20-25
knots on Sunday. Winds may briefly increase to 30 knots across the
central basin, but will decrease to 10-15 knots by the evening and
becoming westerly. Waves will steadily subside from 2-4 feet Sunday
to 1-3 feet Sunday night. Winds will become southwesterly on Monday
and increase to 25-30 knots. Waves build to 3-6 feet in the
nearshore zones, and 6-9 feet the open water zones. Occasional waves
11-15 feet are possible. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended
to Monday night to account for these conditions. These conditions
will continue through Wednesday, with gale-force winds likely across
the lake on Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for OHZ010>014-
     020>022-089.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for OHZ023.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ032-
     033.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Monday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders