Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

893
FXUS61 KCLE 090233
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
933 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes but added a Wind Advisory for the downsloping
areas of Erie County PA. Temperatures are non-diurnal for Friday
and highs occur earlier in the day prior to frontal passage.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Winds picking up tonight into Friday as rain moves in with a low
pressure system moving into the region. Unseasonably warm
Friday.

2) A late Saturday/early Saturday night cold front brings rain changing
over to lake effect snow Sunday and significantly colder air into
the region after the Friday warm up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An area of low pressure will track from the southern plains region
into the central Great Lakes tonight into Friday. A leading edge
warm front will move into the western zones of the CWA this evening
with weak isentropic ascent producing scattered light rain. Low
level/surface warm air advection will dominate the overnight period
with temperatures warming up through the morning hours Friday, and
then a non-diurnal trend continuing through Friday with the midday
passage of the cold front. Temperatures will top out in the upper
50s to near 60F before dropping through the remainder of Friday into
the evening. As per typical with these cold season low pressure
systems, low level flows will be on the increase, and in the warm
sector, a low level jet pushing 75kts is expected. A pressure
gradient increase will provide strengthening winds for the area, but
a relatively stable boundary layer should keep those higher low
level velocities off the surface. A line of convection should be
expected ahead of the cold front late tonight into early Friday.
While there is not a severe threat, and lightning will probably be
on the scarce side with a pronounced lack of instability, this could
be a mechanism to bring stronger gusts to the surface. That and the
now descending cold air advection in the wake of the cold front will
be the primary producers of the wind issues for this part of the
forecast. That said, the synoptic scale wind gusts are a touch below
40kts for the area, so no Wind Advisory for now. For the Erie County
PA region, southerly downsloping in the warm sector is expected, so
this added aspect to the wind should get the gusts to 40-45kts for a
few hours, and will go with a Wind Advisory for the lakeshore zone
of the county.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Low pressure develops over the lower Great Lakes in response to a
digging/closing upper level low dropping into the western Great
Lakes from the Canadian prairies. This cold front moving through as
a result late Saturday will knock temperatures back down below
freezing once again as we head into the latter half of the weekend.
Rain changes to light snow Saturday night in minimal to no
accumulations, but then a brief lake effect setup commences for
Sunday into early Sunday night as a surface trough lingers and the
axis of an upper trough swings through. This is a low end event, and
only expecting 1-4 inches for now in the snow belt areas before
winds turn southwesterly on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Widespread VFR and dry conditions will come to an end as low
pressure arrives from the west. Some light rain showers will
spread east across terminals over the next few hours but expect
conditions to remain VFR. More widespread rain showers will
push east late tonight/early Friday morning as the surface low
moves north across Lower Michigan and lifts a warm front across
the region. Cigs/vis in rain showers may drop to MVFR at times
with more widespread MVFR cigs expected behind a cold front late
Friday morning continuing through Friday evening.

Southerly winds will begin to increase this evening as a strong
LLJ (50-60+ kt) moves over the region tonight. There will be a
period of LLWS at all terminals overnight tonight given the
strong LLJ moving overhead. Southerly winds will generally
range between 15-20 knots sustained with gusts 20-30 knots
through the overnight hours. As the cold front swings east on
Friday anticipate for winds to turn westerly and increase in the
CAA regime. Wind speeds 20-25 knots sustained and gusts 30-35+
knots will be possible Friday morning through Friday evening
behind the cold front. Westerly to northwesterly winds will
begin to diminish Friday night.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of rain and/or snow
Friday afternoon through this Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories kick in for all nearshore waters at 10 PM
this evening as southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching
cold front. Southerly winds of 15-25kt are expected to continue
into Friday ahead of a cold front that will quickly cross the
lake between the late morning and late afternoon hours. There
has been a significant increase in the wind speed and gust
forecast along and just behind the cold front Friday afternoon.
Winds will quickly shift west-southwest with the front and
increase to 25-35kt, with up to 40kt possible across the east
end. Gusts of 40 to 50kt are likely along and just behind the
front across the lake (strongest gusts on the east end). This
will build waves to 5 to 9 feet in ice-free waters across the
central and eastern basin. The strongest winds will generally
last about 3 hours in a given location from west to east across
the lake...while this is a short duration, the increasing
potential for a solid sustained gale with gusts as high as 50kt
has prompted the issuance of a Gale Watch from 1 PM to 7 PM
Friday from Willowick points east. Winds and waves quickly
subside from west to east Friday night as a ridge builds in.

On Saturday through Saturday night, a low should wobble NE`ward from
near the Lower OH Valley to near Georgian Bay and deepen. A warm
front should sweep NE`ward across Lake Erie on Saturday afternoon
through early evening, which should allow NE`erly to E`erly winds to
veer to SW`erly while wind speeds freshen to around 15 to 20 knots.
Waves should build to as large as 4 feet. During Saturday night, the
deepening low`s trailing cold front should sweep E`ward across Lake
Erie and cause SW`erly winds to veer to WSW`erly as wind speeds
freshen to around 20 to nearly 30 knots. Wind speeds may reach gale-
force at times and abnormally low water levels may materialize in
the western basin. Waves should build to as large as 5 to 10 feet.
On Sunday, a trough should linger over the Lake Erie region. WSW`erly
to NW`erly winds should ease slowly from around 20 to 30 knots
to around 15 to 25 knots by nightfall. Waves should remain as
large as 5 to 10 feet. During Sunday night through Tuesday, a
ridge should overspread Lake Erie generally from the west, but
relatively strong winds and large waves should persist.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected on Friday with
record high temperatures possible. Here are the record high
temperatures for area climate sites on January 9th:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
01-09   59(1880)       61(1946)       66(1937)       63(1946)       66(1937)       64(1937)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for LEZ142>145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for LEZ146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for LEZ147>149.
     Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
     LEZ147>149-167>169.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
MARINE...Jaszka/Sullivan