Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

948
FXUS61 KCLE 191709
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
109 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There has been some added uncertainty with the severe weather
potential this afternoon into the evening given the lingering cloud
deck east of I71. There is high confidence that isolated storms will
form into a line and push east, but how far east that line remains
severe will be uncertain. In addition, dewpoints have been increased
in the forecast to the mid 60s to low 70s given current
observational trends. Best timing for severe potential remains
between 5-10PM today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The entire area remains highlighted in Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
for severe weather late this afternoon into the evening. Primary
threat remains strong winds, although localized heavy rainfall and
small hail are possible.

2) A big cool down is on the way for Wednesday and Thursday as high
moves into the area.

3) An unsettled weather pattern with multiple chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to impact the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
This afternoon, a few light showers continue to linger across far
NEOH and NWPA, keeping cloud cover over that portion of the area and
limiting keeping destabilization at a minimum right now. However,
across western counties, cloud decks have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly rose into the low 80s with dewpoints in
the upper 60s, trending towards the low 70s. This has allowed for
rapid destabilization with modeled soundings suggesting SB CAPE
already in the 2000-2500 J/kg range and steepening low level lapse
rates close to 8 C/km. The best shear with this event should remain
north of the area with bulk shear values in the 15-25 knot range.
Given these environmental conditions, would not be surprised to see
some isolated storms develop this afternoon ahead of a main line
expected to push east later this evening. DCAPE values near 1000
J/kg add confidence that the primary hazard concern with any
convection with be strong to damaging winds. Cannot rule out some
small hail, especially in the discrete cells ahead of the primary
line. The tornado threat remains very low, although not zero, given
the best shear is to the north of the area. Any quick spin ups that
do occur would likely be embedded within the line of convection this
evening. The final concern is locally heavy rainfall, especially in
the most developed cells, that could lead to localized ponding on
area roads. Modeled soundings suggest that brief training of cells
could occur this evening along the boundary which would coincide in
timing with an increased warm cloud layer and PWAT push. Overall
concern for widespread flooding this evening remains low, but to
highlight the potential WPC has included the entire area in a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) ERO today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Late tonight, a strong cold front is expected to move east across
the area, marking a transition back to much cooler temperatures for
Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures are expected to be nearly
20 degrees cooler compared to today, only climbing into the upper
50s to low 60s as 850mb of 5-7C nudge south over the area. Some
lingering showers will be possible across the southern tier of
counties on Wednesday before the cold front fully pushes south and
high pressure dries everything out through Thursday. Unfortunately,
that means that Wednesday will be rather dreary as cloud coverage
across the area lingers before peaks of sunshine return on Thursday.
To compliment daytime highs, overnight lows Wednesday night will
fall into the low to mid 40s and into the upper 40s to low 50s
Thursday night. At this point, there is no concern for a late season
frost.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The upcoming holiday weekend will be fairly unsettled as multiple
shortwave troughs push east across the region, bringing chances of
showers and thunderstorms to the area as a near stationary boundary
settles somewhere near the CWA. Initially, this boundary on Friday
should begin to push north of the area, marking a transition back to
warmer and more seasonable temperatures for the weekend. Then this
boundary will ebb and flow over the CWA as the aforementioned
troughs push east. As moisture increases over the area, multiple
rounds of rainfall, potentially heavy at times, will result in
possible flood concerns across area rivers and potential aerial
flooding where rain persists. WPC has already highlighted the area
in a Day 4 Marginal (level 1 of 5) ERO. The thunder potential should
be isolated to daytime hours as diurnal instability adds additional
support for shower development, but any severe potential remains
uncertain at this time. Highs throughout the weekend will be in the
70s with mild overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Scattered showers are ongoing this morning across parts of the
area. There may be some brief restrictions and isolated
lightning with this activity. Still expecting several hours of
dry and VFR conditions later this morning and this afternoon
before another round of convection this evening ahead of a cold
front. Am expecting thunderstorms to impact most terminals this
evening, with a brief period of vsby restrictions and potential
for pockets of strong wind gusts over 40kt with the stronger
storms. Still a bit of uncertainty with this later round of
storms if shower activity earlier in the day is more significant
or prolonged than expected, but still leaning towards the
evening round of storms being the main show with this set of
TAFs. Showers linger through most of tonight as the cold front
crosses from northwest to southeast but with diminishing
thunderstorm potential. Low MVFR to even some IFR ceilings
likely arrive early Wednesday behind the cold front.

Winds increase to 10-20kt with gusts 25-30kt later this morning
and this afternoon. Winds shift north-northwest behind the cold
front late tonight into early Wednesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR continues into Wednesday in lower ceilings and
possibly rain showers. Non-VFR possible in showers Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
South-southwest winds continue until a cold front crosses the
lake overnight tonight. Winds will generally be in the 10-20kt
range, with gusts in the nearshore waters of 25-30kt likely this
afternoon. Will go with a Small Craft Advisory from Erie County
OH points west where winds will be gustiest...not quite as
gusty farther east, though still on the breezy side. Waves of
1-3 feet in the nearshore will increase to 2-4 feet in the open
waters today. Thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late this
afternoon and evening may produce strong wind gusts over 35kt
and locally up to 50kt over the lake. Winds whip around to the
north- northeast late tonight into Wednesday at 10-17kt behind
the cold front, keeping 1-3 foot waves going. Winds increase to
15-20kt and gradually turn more northeasterly into Thursday and
easterly into Friday as strong high pressure passes north and
northeast of the lake. East-northeast winds often perform well
in these types of setups and have continued to inch up in the
forecast, and a period of small craft/beach hazards headlines is
looking increasingly likely for at least some of the nearshore
waters late this week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high temperature occurred at Erie, Pennsylvania on Monday.
High temperatures today will approach record values at some locations
again. The following are the records for May 19.

Date    Toledo    Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
05-19   92(1996)  88(1964)   88(1998)    91(1911)   89(1934)    90(1996)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan