Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

830
FXUS61 KCLE 142359
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
759 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast. Warming trend to commence as
expected this weekend into early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming trend with summer-like conditions early next week.

2) Slightly cooler mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Significant upper level pattern change with the exit of the upper
level trough that cooled the region down today into the 50s and 60s
once again, with 40s over NW PA. Temperatures rebound to near normal
Friday in zonal flow aloft, which will become upper level ridging
through the weekend into early next week. 850mb temperatures by
Monday will have climbed into the upper teens, translating to near
90F in places for the warmest weather of the season so far. A
stationary front will drape itself in the vicinity of the CWA
Saturday through Sunday with a return for showers and storms, where
a marginal threat for severe clips the far western zones for late
Saturday. This stationary boundary becomes a warm front Sunday
night, assisting in the warm up for early next week that will be
characterized by well above normal temperatures. Dewpoints to climb
to late spring/summer values in the 65-70F range as convective
chances increase Tuesday with the approach of a cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Another upper trough digs into the Great Lakes for the end of the
week, dropping temperatures back to normal or slightly below normal
for the area, but this will not be a return to the cooler type
weather that has plagued the area for the first half of May. Rain
chances will continue behind the cold front through Wednesday night
before largely coming to an end Thursday and temperatures closer to
the 70F mark for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this evening with VFR to persist
through the TAF period. Low-end VFR (4 to 5kft) across the
eastern half of the area will gradually exit towards the east
and dissipate to skc overnight into early Friday morning. High
cirrus streaming in from the west late Friday morning will
become thicker and lower to around 10kft, particularly west of
I-71 by the afternoon.

Winds are generally out of the north to northwest this evening,
8 to 12 knots. Winds will become light and variable overnight
before favoring a south to southwest direction late Friday
morning and afternoon, 8 to 10 knots. The exception will be at
ERI where a weak lake breeze may result in west to northwest
winds of 8 to 10 knots by early Friday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday. Additional non- VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, though chances are
lower. Non-VFR may return on Tuesday in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow 15-20 knots will continue through this evening
allowing for wave heights of 3 to 5 feet to remain across the
central basin. Have extended the Small Craft Advisory through 4
PM this afternoon. High pressure will build overhead allowing
for improving marine conditions for Friday. Southwest winds 5 to
15 knots will return on Saturday and continue through the
weekend. There remains the potential for showers and
thunderstorms on the lake this weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...13