Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

388
FXUS61 KCLE 270415
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1115 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Based on latest trends in observations and NWP model guidance,
made the following changes to our forecast: decreased forecast
cloud cover through the first several predawn hours of Tuesday
morning; decreased forecast low temperatures slightly for early
Tuesday morning. Please see key messages and discussion for
further details.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake-effect snow across the Cleveland metro and Snowbelt
will wind down from west to east this evening into tonight as
snow showers occurring farther inland also exit, leaving mainly
dry weather across the area for tonight.

2) Minimum wind chills of -20 to -30 degrees are in the
forecast tonight into early Tuesday. An Extreme Cold Warning
remains in effect for the entire area until 11 AM Tuesday.

3) Light snow is expected areawide on Tuesday, with lake-
enhanced snow producing slightly higher snow accumulations
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Some blowing
snow is also likely due to wind gusts of 25-35 MPH, especially
west of the I-71 corridor Tuesday morning. The light snow
accumulations and blowing snow may result in travel impacts.

4) Prolonged cold is expected through the weekend creating
elevated risks for cold exposure and damage to infrastructure.
Additional cold weather headlines will be needed.

5) Generally limited precipitation chances after Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Light to locally moderate lake-effect snow has been ongoing amid
west-northwest flow from Lorain and northern Medina Counties
points east across Northeast OH much of today and has expanded
east into Northwest PA this afternoon. This snow is driven by
some synoptic lift and moisture associated with a shortwave
moving through this afternoon, shoreline convergence and
upslope, and limited but still-present fluxes off the icy lake.
The snow is not particularly intense but is very efficient/
high-ratio, and has been causing some roadway accumulations when
it`s been more intense. This lake effect is not going to last
too much longer, with a notable downtrend expected through this
evening as the shortwave moves east and low-level ridging builds
in. It`s possible a few spots see another inch or two of fluffy
snow late this afternoon into this evening. For now the Winter
Wx Advisory expires at 4 PM, and it will be a "game time
decision" regarding if part of that needs to be extended at all.

Outside of the snowbelt, some very modest low-level instability
is combining with weak synoptic lift from the shortwave and
moisture from Lake Michigan to generate flurries and a few snow
showers. This activity has increased early-mid afternoon across
the Akron/Canton and Youngstown areas as the shortwave moves
through and is beginning to diminish farther west. Overall,
this activity is also expected to end through this evening,
leaving a dry rest of the night across the area. There will be a
short window for some clearer skies tonight before clouds
increase from the northwest into early Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There has been little change to the temperature, wind, and wind
chill forecast for tonight into early Tuesday. While conditions
aren`t ideal for radiational cooling, a period of relatively
lighter winds through the first half of tonight and a window of
clearer sky (especially outside of any lingering lake effect
clouds) over our fresh and deep snowpack will support low
temperatures between about 2F and -8F, with the coldest values
across our southern and southeastern counties. Winds will shift
to southwesterly overnight and increase to 12-22 MPH (strongest
west of the I-71 corridor) late tonight into early Tuesday.
This all yields minimum wind chills tonight in the range of
about -20F to -30F prior to sunrise. Thus, Extreme Cold Warning
criteria (wind chills of -25F or colder) are expected to be
reached in a large portion of our CWA. Note: the prolonged
frigid conditions support an increased risk of infrastructure
damage (such as burst pipes and dead batteries).

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex will swing southeast
through the Great Lakes tonight and Tuesday. In response at the
surface, a weak surface low will track through the upper Great
Lakes. A warm front extending from this low will lift into the
area Tuesday morning, quickly followed by the low`s trailing
cold front late Tuesday afternoon and evening. These features
will help bring snow chances and gusty winds to the local area.

Mid-level warm air advection and isentropic lift will drive an
initial batch of snow that will spread in from the northwest
between ~5 AM and ~9 AM. Much of the area stands a chance to see
a light amount of snow (up to an inch) with this initial batch
of snow, with potential for a few spots in Northeast OH to see
an inch or two of snow through midday. This snow will not be
much, but with the cold will try to stick to roads and bring
some minor travel impacts. It will remain mainly cloudy behind
this initial batch of snow, with some continued weak warm air
advection in the low-mid levels supporting continued potential
for off/on flurries or light snow into the afternoon. Snow
potential ramps back up later in the afternoon and into the
early evening along and ahead of the cold front. As the front
moves through, the combination of low-level convergence with the
front itself and weak instability in the lowest ~7k feet may
support some briefly moderate to heavy snow showers/squalls...
particularly from Lorain County points east across the snowbelt,
where limited fluxes off the lake combined with some shoreline
convergence/upslope will give activity along the front a boost.
The primary hazard with the cold front will be a short-lived
but quick visibility drop and accumulation of snow on roads
during the late afternoon or early evening, especially across
parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Overall snowfall Tuesday
into Tuesday evening will range from an inch or less across the
western half of the area to 1-3" across Northeast OH and
Northwest PA. While not enough for an advisory, do plan on some
snow accumulations on roads and slower travel at times.

Outside of the snow accumulations, gusty winds will lead to
some blowing and drifting of our fresh and deep snowpack late
tonight and Tuesday. Southwest winds will turn gusty after 5 AM
Tuesday, with 25-35 MPH gusts likely, strongest west of the I-71
corridor. Winds will gradually veer more westerly Tuesday
afternoon with gusts 20-30 MPH continuing. Some blowing and
drifting snow is likely area-wide, with the greatest impacts
west of the I-71 corridor where stronger gusts and a more open
landscape will encourage more blowing and drifting snow. Folks
across Northwest and North Central OH west of I-71 should be
prepared for some impacts to the Tuesday morning commute from
the blowing and drifting. Would like more confidence in wind
gusts over 35 MPH to go with an advisory for blowing snow
impacts, so held off, though it was considered and will at the
least add a mention to the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

The continued story through this weekend will be our prolonged
stretch of very cold/frigid temperatures. After a very slight
"warm up" ahead of the cold front on Tuesday, more frigid air
returns Tuesday night. A re-enforcing shot of frigid arctic air
then arrives Thursday night. While we won`t sniff freezing over
the next week or more, some moderation in the temperatures does
look likely by the start of next week.

In terms of daily highs...Tuesday will reach the mid 10s to near
20, cooling to the upper single digits/lower 10s Wednesday and
Thursday, staying well into the single digits on Friday, and
gradually moderating into the 10s this weekend. Overnight lows
will generally range from 0 to -10 Tuesday night to -5 to 5
Wednesday night, before cooling to -5 to -15 Thursday night.
Widespread lows of 0 to -10 are expected Friday night, with slow
moderation Saturday and Sunday nights. At the least, parts of
the area will likely get below 0 again on Saturday night. The
deep snowpack will support low temperatures colder than guidance
if we see a night with favorable conditions for radiational
cooling (clear skies/light winds). Currently, the most likely
nights for this to happen appear to be Tuesday and Thursday
nights, with some potential Friday night as well if we don`t see
too many clouds. This ongoing and continued stretch of cold
ambient temperatures averaging below 16 degrees will bring
increased risk of infrastructure impacts due to the cold, such
as burst pipes, water main breaks, and dead batteries. The
prolonged nature of the cold will also pose a continued and
increasing risk of exposure to more vulnerable populations.

Additional cold weather headlines will be needed beyond the
current Extreme Cold Warning. Keeping in mind that advisory
criteria is a wind chill or ambient temperature of -15 to -24,
with a warning criteria of -25 or colder, most nights will be
close to or in the range for an advisory from Tuesday night
through Saturday night. There is some potential for warning-
level cold Thursday night into early Friday. These cold wind
chills bring risk for frostbite and hypothermia for those who
are outside without proper cold weather gear, including pets.

KEY MESSAGE 5...

With a frozen lake and very cold, dry synoptic weather pattern,
only small chances for light snow exist beyond Tuesday`s system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
At the surface, a ridge continues affecting our region as a
reinforcing cold front approaches from the Upper Midwest and
vicinity. This front should sweep SE`ward through our region
between ~19Z/Tues and ~00Z/Wed. Behind the front, another ridge
builds from the north- central United States and vicinity
through 06Z/Wed. Ahead of the front, our regional surface winds
trend SW`erly around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25
knots at times. Behind the front, W`erly to WNW`erly winds
around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots are expected
through ~02Z/Wed. Thereafter, gusts should cease as surface
winds back toward WSW`erly and wind speeds ease to around 10
knots by 06Z/Wed.

Ahead of the cold front, isolated to broken low-level clouds
with bases near 2kft AGL are expected. Widespread light snow
with MVFR ceilings and visibility, associated with a disturbance
aloft, should overspread our region generally from northwest to
southeast between ~10Z/Tues and ~14Z/Tues. In addition, a narrow
band of steady to heavy snow with IFR to LIFR visibility and
brief gusts up to 30 knots should accompany the cold front
passage. Behind the front, ceilings near 2kft to 3.5kft AGL,
primarily dry weather, and mainly VFR visibility are expected.
However, lake-effect snow (LES) showers should stream generally
SE`ward from Lake Erie and impact much of NE OH and NW PA,
including KCLE, KYNG, and KERI. Visibility as low as MVFR is
expected with these LES showers through 06Z/Wed.

Outlook...Additional periods of snow with non-VFR are expected
through this Saturday. Greatest chances exist in NE OH and NW
PA, where periodic lake-effect snow downwind of mainly ice-covered
Lake Erie should occur.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will back to southwesterly tonight ahead of an approaching
clipper system and increase to 30 knots on Tuesday. Winds will veer
to westerly Tuesday evening and then decrease Tuesday night. Winds
remain in the 15-25 knot range on Wednesday as another trough
crosses Lake Erie. Winds will tend to decrease to 10-15 knots from
Thursday into the weekend as ridging tries to expand east into the
Great Lakes while remaining focused over the Upper Midwest.

Lake Erie is mostly ice covered, and the ice will continue to
thicken this week as well below normal temperatures continue across
the region. Some shifting of the ice is possible during periods of
stronger winds which may close any remaining channels, especially
tonight.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka/Sullivan
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...10