Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

551
FXUS61 KCLE 270503
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1203 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast continues to trend warmer for Friday. Projected
snow accumulations for Saturday night continue to trend upward,
albeit slightly. Still expect the greatest snow accumulations
from another round of snow to be focused just south of our
region this Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Dry weather and overall moderation in air temperatures
are expected through Saturday.

2.) Snow is expected Saturday night. Total snow accumulations
should be mainly one inch or less.

3.) After a brief period of quiet weather during the day on
Sunday, unsettled weather is expected to return Sunday night
through this upcoming Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
1.) Net low-level WAA continues to develop across our region
today and then persists on Friday as a ridge axis at the
surface and aloft continues to crest E`ward across our CWA today
and then becomes located to our east on Friday. Lows in the
upper teens to upper 20`s are still expected around daybreak
Friday. Late afternoon highs should then reach the mid 40`s to
lower 50`s in NW PA and mainly the 50`s in northern OH as
abundant sunshine and daytime warming are complemented by
somewhat breezy S`erly to SW`erly surface winds associated with
the aforementioned WAA. For context, normal highs are near 40F
and normal lows are near 25F this time of year in our CWA. Dry
weather persists as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the
ridge.

During Friday night through Saturday, the ridge continues to
exit E`ward as cyclonic W`erly flow aloft becomes established
over our region. In addition, a surface cold front starved of
low-level moisture and exhibiting subtle slope should sweep
SE`ward through our region Saturday morning. Behind the front,
a weak surface ridge should nose into our region from the
north-central United States and vicinity. Thus, dry weather
should persist. Overnight lows should reach mainly the 30`s
Friday night. Saturday`s late afternoon highs should reach the
40`s to lower 50`s amidst peeks of sunshine and very weak low-
level CAA behind the front.

2.) During Saturday night, cyclonic W`erly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave disturbances affect our region as the aforementioned
surface ridge continues to nose into our region. The cold air
mass deepens as the upper-reaches of the aforementioned cold
front sweep SE`ward through our region, which should be
accompanied by a frontogenetical deformation zone. Moist
isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axes and
associated with the frontogenetical convergence zone should
trigger a fairly brief period of snow across our region. In
addition, a sufficiently cold/moist low/mid-level atmospheric
column and NNW`erly mean low-level flow over/downwind of the
~1C ice-free waters of Lake Erie, weak lake-induced CAPE, and
the seeder-feeder process should permit a period of lake-
enhanced snow (LEnS) to occur generally south of Lake Erie,
especially the central and eastern portions of the lake. Total
snow accumulations are still expected to be mainly 1" or less in
our CWA, but localized totals of 2-3" are not out of the
question due to the LEnS. Overnight lows should reach the upper
teens to mid 20`s around daybreak Sunday.

3.) Stabilizing subsidence and dry weather should impact our
region on Sunday as W`erly flow aloft becomes anticyclonic
briefly as a shortwave ridge moves E`ward across our region and
the surface ridge continues to build from the Upper Midwest and
vicinity. Late afternoon highs should reach the 20`s in NW PA
and mainly the mid 20`s to mid 30`s in northern OH amidst
continued low-level CAA. During Sunday night through Monday
night, primarily cyclonic W`erly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave disturbances should affect our region as we remain
within the cold sector, the aforementioned surface ridge
continues to affect our CWA, and the embedded high pressure
center should move from near the central Great Lakes toward the
Gulf of Maine. Moist isentropic ascent ahead of a stronger
shortwave trough axis should allow periods of primarily light
snow to impact our region Sunday night into Monday. NWP model
guidance continues to suggest the axis of greatest snow amounts
will be located south of our CWA and near the I-70 corridor.
Based on latest model trends, a coating to 2" of widespread snow
accumulation is possible in our CWA from this round of snow.
Stay tuned to forecast updates. Stabilizing subsidence behind
the stronger shortwave trough axis should contribute to dry
weather Monday night. Below-normal temperatures are expected
Sunday night through Monday night as we remain in the cold
sector.

Weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft is less
certain Tuesday through Thursday given sizable spread in NWP
model guidance. In general, cyclonic W`erly to SW`erly flow
aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should affect northern
OH and NW PA. A warm front should sweep generally N`ward through
our region on Tuesday and allow near-normal high temperatures
to return. Near-normal or above-normal temperatures should then
affect our region Tuesday night through Thursday as the
aforementioned front potentially wavers between the southern
Great Lakes and OH Valley as multiple mid-latitude cyclones
develop and move generally E`ward along the front, yet
primarily WAA at the surface and aloft affects our region.
Periods of precip, mainly in the form of rain, are expected
Tuesday through Thursday due, in part to moist isentropic ascent
along the upper-reaches of the front and ahead of shortwave
trough axes. However, wet snow may mix with rain at times during
the early morning hours of Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR is ongoing across the entire area and is expected to
continue through the TAF period. Maintained a brief TEMPO for
BKN040 ceilings at most sites early this morning as we are
seeing these slightly "lower" clouds just to our west, though
am confident any ceilings won`t fall below VFR. Light and
variable winds will be the story into Friday morning, outside
of CLE and ERI were a slightly more defined SSE wind (at less
than 10 knots) will continue overnight. Winds turn more south-
southwest at 10-15kt with a gust 20-25kt gusts later Friday
morning and afternoon. Added low-level wind shear to all sites
starting Friday evening, as a very strong southwesterly low-
level jet spreads in after sunset ahead of a cold front.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely at some sites in snow Saturday night
into Sunday. Non-VFR possible again in snow Sunday night into
Monday, mainly along and south of US-30.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly quiet marine conditions are expected into early next week as
much of the nearshore waters remain ice-covered. The main
concern for elevated winds will be late Friday into Saturday
when southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots develop ahead of a cold
front which could result in additional shifting of ice across
Lake Erie. As the cold front moves east across the lake on
Saturday, winds will shift towards the north, 10 to 15 knots.
Onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will then persist through Monday,
before gradually favoring a more southeast direction by Tuesday,
around 10 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Kahn