Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

128
FXUS61 KCLE 240600
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
200 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Reduced pops slightly for the evening given recent radar trends.
Trended temperatures down in the north and east slightly for both
Sunday and Monday with lake breezes or flow off the lake.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Active weather continues this evening with a few strong to
severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall possible into early
this evening. Rivers are experiencing rises due to the recent
rainfall and a few have exceeded minor flood. A Wind Advisory
also remains in effect through 2 AM Sunday for Erie County
Pennsylvania.

2.) Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible late
afternoon through the evening on Sunday with conditions drying out
for the Memorial Day Holiday.

3) Above normal temperatures in the lower 80s return for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure is located across NW Ohio this afternoon and we are
monitoring radar trends as the atmosphere is gradually destabilizing.
Only modest instability with ML CAPE of 200-400 J/kg is
expected across southern portions of the forecast area. Shear values
are highest across NE Ohio where surface winds are backed more
southeasterly with veering aloft to the southwest with 35-40 knots
at 850mb. Hodographs are favorable for rotation if we can get
discrete cells on the leading edge of the showers, generally between
now and 7 PM. This is the window of concern for a short-lived
and generally weak tornado or two before the low departs to the
north and the system occludes. Thus far not seeing a sufficient
uptick on radar to be concerned but the window of potentially
stronger activity is just getting started. Coverage of storms
has been less than expected today and trended pops downward
slightly with this forecast. Storm motion to the northeast could
support some training but eastern portions of the forecast area
did not receive as much rain (~0.50-0.75 inch overnight) and
should be able to handle the rain in the absence of robust
convection.

Rivers are rising across portions of the area and minor flooding is
ongoing on Killbuck Creek and the Scioto River at Larue. The
heaviest rain last night of 1.5 - 2.5 inches occurred in a swath
from Marion/Morrow Counties northeast towards Erie/Huron Counties in
Ohio. We are monitoring rivers in the Great Lakes basin as well
including both the Sandusky River at Tiffin and the Huron River at
Milan which are rising quickly.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The trough over the Plains states lifts northeast on Sunday. A band
of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop upstream and
move into NW Ohio late Sunday afternoon. In addition, moisture
spreads back north ahead of the trough and could result in
a few showers and thunderstorms ahead of the main line, generally
after 2 or 3 PM. Temperatures do trend warmer on Sunday with
southerly flow ahead of a weak area of surface low pressure. Modest
instability is expected but tempered by a wind shift off Lake Erie
later in the afternoon. The heavier rainfall of a half inch to an
inch looks to be across NW Ohio but focused north of the heavier
axis from last night which is good. In the wake of this trough, high
pressure and drier air pushes south into the area with a dry
Memorial Day forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Broad upper level ridge focused along the East Coast expands north
into the area Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures returning to
the lower 80s. This looks to be accompanied by a return of showers
and thunderstorms lifting north into the area on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Fairly widespread MVFR ceilings are observed across the region
with a few pockets of VFR for the southwestern terminals and
IFR/LIFR to the east behind the departing rain showers. Ceilings
are expected to become mainly IFR to the west and MVFR to the
east over the next few hours behind the front. There are
signals of lowered visibility across the western terminals west
of I-77 this morning due to patchy fog with ceilings of less
than 1kft. Conditions will improved slightly by 12-15Z this
morning, but will still remain at least MVFR. Rain showers will
move into the region this afternoon, though still anticipate
MVFR ceilings with isolated reduced visibility.

Winds across the region are around 5 knots out of the south at
most locations, with KERI seeing around 20 knots sustained with
gusts up to 30 knots due to downsloping. Winds will shift around
from the south to the southeast with the rain showers, then
become westerly behind, still light at less than 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with lingering rain showers and lower
ceilings Sunday night into Monday morning. Non-VFR possible
with rain showers on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory from Avon Point to Ripley NY remains in
effect through 4 AM Sunday as strong southerly to southeasterly
winds 20-30 knots persist. Given the offshore component,
highest waves will occur in the open waters. The current swim
risk for the central and eastern basins remains low given the
location of highest waves. Southerly winds will diminish through
Sunday morning as the parent low pressure exits the region
giving way to light and variable winds and waves 1 foot or less
through the middle of next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...23
MARINE...13