Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

730
FXUS61 KCLE 120833
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
423 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost and Freeze alerts remain in effect for all of northern OH
and NW PA until 8 AM EDT this morning. Frost formation is still
expected inland from Lake Erie, especially around daybreak this
morning, as lows settle into the lower to mid 30`s in many
locations inland from the lake. The rest of the forecast is
essentially unchanged.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Below-average temperatures, overall, are expected through
this Thursday night. Frost remains a concern this morning.

2.) Unsettled weather, including periodic thunderstorms,
returns Tuesday evening through Thursday.

3) An overall warming trend is expected on Friday through
Tuesday, May 19th.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft crests E`ward
across our region today. Dry weather is expected as stabilizing
subsidence accompanies the ridge. Net low-level WAA develops
across northern OH and NW PA today as our region becomes
located along the western flank of the ridge. Highs late this
afternoon are expected to reach the upper 50`s to near 70F as
cloud cover increases amidst moist isentropic ascent, ahead of a
trough axis aloft that will continue to approach from the
north-central United States and vicinity. The coolest highs are
expected over and within several miles of ~54F Lake Erie since
a favorable thermodynamic environment and weak synoptic MSLP
gradient should promote lake breeze development late this
morning through early evening.

The ridge at the surface and aloft exits E`ward tonight through
Wednesday night as the aforementioned trough aloft overspreads
our region and its axis moves from the Upper Midwest to near
Lake Ontario and the central Appalachians. The attendant surface
low should wobble ESE`ward from the northwestern Great Lakes to
northeastern NY, which should allow a surface warm front to
sweep NE`ward across our CWA Tuesday night before a surface cold
front sweeps E`ward through our region between about daybreak
and early evening on Wednesday. Behind the cold front, a
surface ridge builds from the Upper Midwest through Thursday
night, while the mid/upper-level portion of this ridge should
begin to build from the west by Thursday night.

Net low-level WAA ahead of the warm front and within the warm
sector will contribute to overnight lows reaching the upper
40`s to mid 50`s tonight. Abundant cloud cover associated with
the low pressure system and a faster cold front passage than
expected previously should limit daytime highs to the upper 50`s
to lower 60`s on Wednesday, ahead of the cold front. Net low-level
CAA behind the cold front should contribute to lows reaching
the 40`s around daybreak Thursday and Friday, respectively,
although a few locations in interior NE OH may have lows reach
the upper 30`s around daybreak Friday morning. Daytime highs on
Friday should reach only the upper 40`s to mid 50`s in NW PA
and the 50`s to mid 60`s in northern OH.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Periods of rain, steady to heavy at times, are expected tonight
through Wednesday due to the following: isentropic ascent along
the upper-reaches of the warm front tapping into abundant
moisture originating over the Gulf and especially the southern
Gulf Stream; convergence/moist ascent along the surface cold front;
moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the cold front.
Occasional thunderstorms are expected Tuesday evening through early
Wednesday evening as weak CAPE, including elevated CAPE, is released
by the aforementioned lifting mechanisms. SPC has a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms capable of producing straight-line wind damage
that clips far-eastern portions of our CWA Wednesday afternoon and
early evening. However, this risk appears to be very marginal given
the expectation that abundant cloud cover will limit diurnal
destabilization of the boundary layer, which in turn will limit the
magnitude of low-level lapse rates and DCAPE, respectively.

During Wednesday night into early Thursday, precip is expected
to transition to lake-enhanced/effect rain over and generally
southeast of Lake Erie, especially central and eastern portions
of the lake, as a primarily NW`erly mean low-level flow of
sufficiently-cold/moist air becomes established over/downwind of
the ~12C lake, at least weak lake-induced CAPE forms, and the
seeder-feeder process occurs at times amidst a sufficiently-
cold/moist low/mid-level atmospheric column and isentropic
ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes embedded in the
aforementioned trough aloft. Between daybreak and nightfall on
Thursday, lingering lake-effect rain showers should end from
west to east and give way to dry weather region-wide by Thursday
night as lake-induced CAPE wanes via low-level dry air
advection and a lowering subsidence inversion accompanying the
ridge that will build from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
An overall warming trend is expected this Friday through
Tuesday, May 19th as our region becomes located within a net
low-level WAA regime along the western flank of the
aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft. Moderating
temperatures should include daytime highs in the 60`s to lower
70`s on Friday followed by daily highs mainly in the 80`s this
weekend through Monday. Tuesday, May 19th may be slightly cooler
with highs in the mid 70`s to lower 80`s as the next cold front
approaches from the northwest and results in increased potential
for showers and thunderstorms, and greater cloud cover as a
result. More specifically, periodic showers and thunderstorms
are possible Friday night through Tuesday the 19th, but
especially during the afternoon through early evening hours, as
a low-level return flow of moist air originating over the Gulf
becomes established, the boundary layer destabilizes via daytime
heating each day, multiple shortwave troughs embedded in the
primarily SW`erly flow aloft and attendant surface trough axes
traverse our region, and the aforementioned cold front approaches
northern OH and NW PA, eventually.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions will remain across the airspace through the TAF
period. Early this morning, some mid-level clouds remain across
the region with light easterly flow. These mid-level clouds
should dissipate by daybreak. With daybreak, some high clouds
may filter across the region but conditions will be mostly clear
with winds shifting to the south. An incoming low pressure
system will allow for mid-level ceilings to return to the entire
region this afternoon, as warm front crosses the local area.
Behind the warm front this evening, winds will increase and
become south to southwest; some gusts over 20 kts are possible.
Rain will eventually enter as the main low pressure system and
associated cold front gets closer to the airspace. Have started
timing in more rain to terminals but non-VFR impacts seem
limited at this time. There is a non-zero thunderstorm chance
but confidence is too low to include in a TAF at this time.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with lingering rain and low ceilings
through Thursday. Non-VFR may return in scattered rain showers
and thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light easterly flow will be present on the lake today ahead of a
warm front. This front will lift over the lake this afternoon
and southwesterly flow will overtake the lake and increase.
Offshore flow over the western basin will exceed 20 kts at times
and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. Low pressure will
move southeast through the Great Lakes region on Wednesday,
steering flow to the west, while maintaining elevated speeds.
This low will extend a cold front across the lake on Wednesday
night, allowing for northwest flow to become favored. This
onshore flow will be in the 15 to 20 kt range and should allow
for waves to reach 4 ft for the central and eastern basins and
an expansion of the Small Craft Advisory is likely. High
pressure will enter the region for Thursday night into Friday.
Northerly flow will trend lighter for Thursday night before
shifting to light southerly flow for Friday. A warm front will
cross the lake on Friday night into Saturday, allowing for 10 to
15 kts of offshore flow.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ003-006>013-
     017>022-027>032-036>038-047-089.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ014-023-033.
PA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ001.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Thursday for LEZ144-145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic