Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

464
FXUS61 KCLE 031131
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
631 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure extends from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio
Valley. A trough will slide southeast across the Great Lakes
Region tonight. High pressure overhead on Sunday will shift east
allowing a warm front to lift north across the area on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flurries will taper off in the east while high level cloud
overspreads the area from the west this morning. Shortwave energy
will slide southeast through the Great Lakes Region today with
moisture returning to the low levels by late in the day. Some snow
is expected to return to the area tonight as weak low pressure
slides from Lake Huron towards Lake Ontario. Scattered snow showers
are possible across northern portions of the area but accumulations
will be confined primarily to the snowbelt region of Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania. The window for snow with a deeper
moisture profile is fairly brief, lasting only about 6 hours from
03Z-09Z. Southwesterly low level flow will initially support a band
with moderate intensity to develop near or just north of the Lake
Erie shoreline. This band will move onshore late this evening, then
transition to lake enhanced snow showers with northwesterly flow
overnight. Snow tonight will tend to range from 1-3 inches across
Lake, northern Ashtabula and Geauga Counties with locally 2-4 inches
in Erie County Pennsylvania. Additional accumulations will be light
in Ohio on Sunday as moisture depth tends to fall below 850mb while
lingering a little longer in NW Pennsylvania where an additional 1-2
inches of snow will be possible. Can not entirely rule out the
need for an Advisory for Erie County Pennsylvania but seems just
a little too marginal at this time. We could see some shallow
low level convergence again ahead of the surface ridge building
into Ohio and have raised pops to 60+ percent on Sunday in NW
Pennsylvania. Subsidence will win out by Sunday evening with
snow ending in NW Pennsylvania as flow backs to west southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will shift east of the region Sunday night into Monday
with a warm front lifting north. While most of the precipitation
associated with this front will be north of Lake Erie, a chance of
snow is possible across mainly far Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. Little to no accumulation is expected however given
temperatures warming and snow ratios falling to 8 or lower.
Highs on Monday will be 10 or so degrees warmer than Sunday and
then continuing to climb into the 40s area wide on Tuesday.
Upper level ridge axis is overhead on Monday with a shortwave
moving through the flow aloft on Tuesday. Scattered rain showers
will be possible with isentropic ascent as 850mb temperatures
climb towards 4-6C.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term forecast will be characterized by well above
normal temperatures for early January as we soar into the 50s.
This will melt the snowpack and bring a round of rain with good
moisture transport ahead of a full latitude trough advancing
from the Plains. Will need to monitor how much precipitation is
expected Thursday night through Saturday with multiple rounds of
rain possible. We will certainly expect to see rises on rivers
in the snowbelt region for the end of the week and may need to
monitor flooding potential at a few locations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Periodic MVFR ceilings are expected at KERI and other primary
snowbelt terminals for most of today, although there will
probably be a period of VFR ceilings mid-morning into early this
afternoon. A weak clipper will move across the area tonight,
resulting in lower ceilings areawide and lake-enhanced snow
showers across NE OH and NW PA. Ceilings should be low-end VFR
at KTOL/KFDY with MVFR developing at other TAF sites late
tonight. The best chance of snow showers will be at
KCLE/KYNG/KERI near or shortly after 00Z tonight, but a few
light snow showers could sneak as far southwest as KCAK between
about 06Z and 09Z Sunday morning. Visibilities will most likely
be MVFR, however periods of IFR visibilities are possible in
more moderate snow at KERI.

Winds will be out of the west/southwest at 5 knots or less this
morning with winds closer to Lake Erie increasing to 5 to 10
knots by late morning. Light and variable winds are more favored
at inland terminals through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected across northeast Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania with snow showers and low ceilings
through Sunday morning and again Monday morning. Additional
non-VFR possible in rain showers Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
The remaining Small Craft Advisories will expire at 09Z/4 AM and
headlines are not anticipated for the next several days. Winds will
be out of the west/northwest at around 8 to 14 knots through most of
Sunday with winds becoming offshore Sunday night into Monday. Warm
air advection will result in southwest winds between 6 and 12 knots
Monday evening through the middle of the week. Small Craft
Advisories may be needed Friday into the weekend as south/southwest
flow deepens.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15