Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

998
FXUS61 KCLE 132340
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
740 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The High Wind Warning remains in effect for most of our CWA
until 8 PM this evening and until 2 AM EDT Saturday for
Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Ashtabula Counties in NE OH, and Erie
and Crawford Counties in NW PA. A blowing dust-related Special
Weather Statement has been issued for Marion, Crawford, Huron,
and Erie Counties, OH and points west. This statement is in
effect until 6 PM today. Recent significant drying of soil as
drought persists and the strong, gusty winds will result in
plumes of blowing dust through this early evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) A potent clipper will continue to affect our region through
tonight. Multiple impacts are expected, including strong and
gusty winds that will continue to result in tree and power line
damage through at least this early evening.

2.) Another robust low pressure system will impact the region
on Saturday night through Monday, bringing widespread precip and
another round of strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1:
Aloft, a shortwave trough and embedded mid/upper-level low
wobble E`ward from near Lake Superior to southern QC through
daybreak Saturday. At the surface, the potent low wobbles
ENE`ward from northern Lower MI to southern QC and weakens
slowly as it becomes vertically-stacked with the mid/upper-level
low. The trailing cold front will sweep E`ward from NW OH
through NW PA during this early afternoon through very early
evening and should exit our CWA around 5 PM this evening. Low-
level convergence/moist ascent along the front will continue to
release weak boundary layer instability and trigger a line of
multicell showers amidst moderate to strong effective bulk
shear, including 925 mb flow near 50 to 60 knots. These showers
should be efficient at transporting stronger flow just aloft
down to the surface and contribute to damaging wind gusts that
have already impacted our region. Behind the front, a ridge at
the surface and aloft builds from the north-central United
States through daybreak Saturday. Stabilizing subsidence
accompanying the ridge will promote primarily dry weather behind
the front. Strong low-level CAA behind the front will contribute
to lows reaching the mid 20`s to lower 30`s around daybreak
Saturday.

WINDS:
Diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer tapping into the
aforementioned strong flow just aloft through this early
evening, quick MSLP rises immediately behind the front, and
steep low-level lapse rates and deep mechanical mixing of the
boundary layer amidst low-level winds/CAA increasing with height
for several hours behind the front will allow SW`erly to W`erly
surface winds to gust up to 60 to 70 mph through this early
evening. Sustained surface winds and gusts will then ease
gradually the rest of this evening through daybreak Saturday as
925 mb flow eases in a generally southwest to northeast manner
and the horizontal pressure gradient at the surface and aloft
relaxes.

LAKE-ENHANCED/EFFECT PRECIP:
Behind the cold front, a sufficiently-cold/moist low/mid-level
atmospheric column, WSW`erly to WNW`erly mean low-level flow
over and downwind of ~3C Lake Erie, weak lake-induced CAPE
(LICAPE), and the seeder-feeder process should permit periods of
lake-enhanced precip to impact the primary snowbelt as 850 mb
temperatures plummet to -5C or colder most of this evening. This
lake-enhanced precip should then transition to pure lake-effect
precip by early Saturday morning as 850 mb temperatures drop
further to near -10C and mid-level moisture plummets, allowing
the seeder-feeder process to end. The lake-effect precip should
end by daybreak Saturday as continued dry air advection at the
surface and aloft, and stabilizing subsidence accompanying the
building ridge, cause LICAPE to wane. Precip over and downwind
of Lake Erie should begin as a rain/snow mix early this evening
and then change quickly to snow due to the wet-bulb effect and
CAA at the surface and aloft. Hi-res model soundings indicate
the snow should be heavy at times this evening, when strong,
maximized ascent should become collocated with a cloudy DGZ
about 1 km deep. Snow accumulations of less than one inch are
expected in the NE OH portion of the primary snow belt. Total
snow accumulations of a coating to 3" are expected in NW PA.
The greatest of these snow totals are forecast in the higher
terrain of southern Erie and northern Crawford Counties.

KEY MESSAGE #2:
Saturday, night, a ridge at the surface and aloft exits E`ward
as a trough at the surface and aloft approaches from the
northern Great Plains and vicinity and the attendant surface
warm front approaches from the TN and OH Valleys. Moist
isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the front should
trigger a rain/snow mix, but mainly in the form of snow and
especially over/near Lake Erie, where tropospheric moisture
should be greater and deeper. Snow accumulations should be less
than one inch and lows should reach mainly the mid 20`s to mid
30`s around midnight Sunday before temperatures moderate toward
daybreak as low-level WAA strengthens. On Sunday, the trough
aloft should deepen as it approaches from the northern and
central Great Plains. The surface warm front will sweep N`ward
through our region and be followed by a weak surface ridge
nosing from the southeast and south as a surface low deepens and
wobbles from the Mid-MO Valley toward the southwestern Great
Lakes. Current odds favor dry weather, but a few rain showers
may accompany low-level convergence/ascent along the surface
warm front. Strong low- level WAA and peaks of sunshine should
allow our highs to reach abnormally-warm values of the mid 50`s
to lower 70`s.

During Sunday night through Monday night, the deepening trough
aloft should overspread our region from the west. Strengthening
divergence aloft and attendant MSLP falls downstream of the
mid/upper-level trough axis should allow the surface low to
deepen further as it tracks NE`ward from the southwestern Great
Lakes to southern QC through early Monday evening and then
deepen further as the low wobbles NNE`ward toward northern QC
Monday night. The trailing and strong cold front should sweep
E`ward through our CWA on Monday and be followed by a strong
surface ridge building from the west. Periods of rain and
scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the cold
front due to pre-front moist isentropic ascent and low- level
convergence/moist ascent along the front releasing at least weak
CAPE, including elevated CAPE. Moderate to strong effective
bulk shear may allow some storms to be strong to severe (e.g.
see SPC`s latest convective weather outlook). Abnormally-warm
temperatures ahead of the cold front will tumble quickly behind
the front and be followed by lows potentially as cold as the mid
teens to mid 20`s around daybreak Tuesday. Thus, any lingering
rain associated with the upper-reaches of the cold front may
change to snow before the front-related precip ends. A SW`erly
to NW`erly mean low-level flow of very cold/sufficiently-moist
air may allow Lake Erie lake-effect snow, heavy at times, to
occur over/downwind of the ~3C lake later Monday into Tuesday.
Something we will continue to monitor.

Note: the deepening low pressure system is expected to be
accompanied by a potent and strengthening wind field at the
surface and aloft. Advisory or warning-criteria regional surface
wind gusts should occur later Sunday into Monday due to diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer tapping into stronger
flow aloft, quick MSLP rises behind the strong cold front, and
deep mechanical mixing of the post-cold front boundary layer
amidst steep low-level lapse rates and low-level winds/CAA
increasing with height.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Winds to gradually ease into the overnight, but high gusts
35-50kts still possible through around 03Z Saturday. Outside of
the winds, TAFs are VFR except for ERI with the only cloud
bases lower than FL100 at CAK, CLE, and YNG. For ERI, MVFR
possible as snow showers develop later tonight. High pressure
moves in for Saturday with more tranquil weather in place for
the last 9 hours of the TAF, again, minus the light snow showers
early on for ERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely to return in rain/snow showers
Saturday night into Sunday. Non-VFR may linger in scattered
rain/snow showers on Monday with lake effect snow possible
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong low pressure system will exit the region and extend a cold
front across the lake. Winds with this system are overperforming
with solid gales of 40 to 45 kts and storm force wind gusts of 50 to
60 kts. Winds will diminish this evening with gale force winds
ending on Saturday morning. There could be a need for a short
extension of the current gale warning before being replaced by a
Small Craft advisory tonight. Low water conditions will persist over
western Lake Erie through tonight with the strong winds.

High pressure will briefly build into the region on Saturday and
allow for a short period of light winds. A low pressure system
developing over the central United States will extend a warm front
toward the lake on Saturday and increase easterly flow on Saturday
night. The front will cross the lake on Sunday and strong southerly
flow will overtake the lake, potentially to gale force winds by
Sunday night. The low pressure system will cross the Great Lakes on
Monday and extend a cold front across the lake on Monday. Winds will
shift to the west and increase further, allowing for a period of
higher confidence gales on Monday. High pressure will be sluggish to
build in on Tuesday and elevated westerly flow will continue through
Tuesday night, likely continuing any headline need.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-
     006>010-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
     High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ011>014-089.
PA...High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>149-162>169.
     Low Water Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Sefcovic