Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

668
FXUS61 KCLE 012257
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
657 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There were no major changes with this update. New high
temperature records were set at Toledo (99 degrees) and
Cleveland (97 degrees) today.

Extended the Extreme Heat Warning for Northern Ohio and Heat
Advisory for Northwest Pennsylvania through Friday evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity persist through the end of the week.

2) Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday
evening onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface high pressure and an accompanying upper level ridge persist
across eastern United States. Dangerous heat and humidity continue
to impact the region as 850mb temperatures rise to the 20-25C range
(99th percentile). Daily maximum temperatures through Friday are
expected to rise into the mid to upper 90s accompanied by dew points
in the mid 70s. This will lead to maximum heat index values in the
100-110F range through the end of the week. Extended the end time of
heat headlines to remain valid through 8 PM Friday. Additional heat
headlines may be needed on Saturday if coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is lower than expected.  With the continued heat and
limited overnight relief, the majority of the forecast area remains
under Extreme HeatRisk (Level 4 of 4). For people without effective
cooling, especially heat-sensitive groups, this level of heat can be
deadly.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The pattern turns more unsettled late this week as the upper level
ridge begins to breakdown. Increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected for the holiday weekend. Confidence in
timing, coverage, and placement of showers and storms remains very
low Friday into the weekend. Slight chance to chance PoPs are
forecast across the region Friday with higher chance to likely PoPs
forecast Saturday and Sunday as surface low pressure hangs in the
vicinity of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. SPC has placed
the entire forecast area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for
severe weather on Friday. Will continue to monitor severe
weather potential with the next few forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Widespread VFR conditions are expected through this period as a
dominant ridge continues to influence the area. There is a brief
potential for MVFR ceilings to push north and impact KCAK and
KYNG late tonight into Thursday morning, but with low
confidence opted to keep this out of the TAF with this update.
Winds from the southwest may periodically gust close to 20 knots
especially during the afternoon hours, but overall winds will
remain from the southwest at 5-10 knots.

Outlook...There is a very low chance of thunderstorms Thursday
evening. Greater potential for scattered storms Friday through
Sunday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours each
day.

&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure to the south, pleasant marine conditions are
expected with southwest flow averaging 10 knots through the
period. There could be a lake breeze that develops east of
Cleveland each afternoon, which would allow for minor shifts in
wind direction and brief 2 ft waves that would be short-lived.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Very hot and humid weather is expected through Friday. Record
warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
07-01   98(1931)       98(1931)       95(2002)       97(1931)       96(1931)       94(2018)
07-02   98(2011)       97(1931)       97(1954)       98(1931)       98(1931)       94(1963)
07-03   100(1911)      93(2020)       98(1949)       97(1911)       98(1898)       93(1934)
07-04   100(2012)      96(2012)       98(1990)       99(1911)       99(1897)       99(1990)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Saunders