Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

926
FXUS61 KCLE 211441
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1041 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
10:40 AM update... An initial round of rain and storms moved
across the area earlier than expected this morning. Confidence
in severe potential around midday and early this afternoon has
wavered, but another round of showers and storms is moving east
across the area and will be monitored for any intensification.
Severe potential remains this evening as the cold front itself
crosses the area, but confidence remains lower until we see how
unstable the atmosphere is able to become after earlier storms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
this evening. Some thunderstorms may turn severe with damaging
winds the primary risk, especially east of I-71. Overall
confidence in severe potential is on the lower side due to the
multiple rounds of storms slowing daytime heating.

2) Anomalously-cool air mass arrives on Wednesday with lake-
enhanced showers possible.

3) Temperatures return near or slightly above normal by the end
of the week and weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An initial slug of rain and storms (including a severe storm in
Erie, PA) developed a bit earlier than expected and moved across
the area largely before 10 AM this morning, adding some extra
uncertainty to the evolution over the next few hours.

As of 10:30 AM, additional convection is developing from central
Lake Erie back into parts of Northwest and West Central OH in
the lingering warm advection regime. While heating will be more
limited due to the first round of convection this morning, slow
destabilization is expected through early this afternoon as
these additional storms move across the area. Strong shear (bulk
shear of 40-50kt+ and effective storm relative helicity of
200-300 m2/s2) will be in place through early this afternoon, so
if we are able to see sufficient destabilization the potential
for organized/rotating convection remains across eastern OH and
into western PA from around midday and into the early afternoon.
While heating will be limited which adds uncertainty, we will
need to monitor for a damaging wind and perhaps tornado
potential from around the I-77 corridor points east if we can
see any supercells or bowing line segments evolve in the
strongly sheared environment before 2 or 3 PM.

We should then see a brief break in convection during the mid to
late afternoon hours before the cold front approaches and
crosses this evening, mainly between 5-10 PM. Shear remains
strong enough for organized convection and a mixed mode of cells
and small/potentially bowing line segments this evening, but
confidence in the airmass recovering behind earlier convection
is on the lower side. This may result in a risk for damaging
winds and a localized tornado risk, evident by the the 5%
tornado probabilities in the latest SPC SWODY1 outlook. These
storms appear to be driven by mesoscale processes mainly below
700 mb, evident by an abundance of dry air aloft, and thus,
anticipating this second round of convection to be fairly
shallow, similar to the type of storms seen across Wisconsin
yesterday (7/20). Confidence on this second round remains on the
lower side, especially with regards to intensity and coverage.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A strong cold front will move across the area tonight, ushering
in a chilly air mass into the region, characterized by 850 mb
temperatures falling as low as 6C on Wednesday. Lake-enhanced
rain showers will be possible throughout Wednesday across
portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania in
addition to ample cloud cover, especially Wednesday morning and
early afternoon. As a result, high temperatures may struggle to
get out of the 60s in some spots.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
A large upper-level ridge across the Western and Central CONUS
will gradually expand further east into the Great Lakes by
Friday into the weekend, resulting in temperatures to return
near or slightly above normal in the 80s. However, a series of
upper-level troughs across Hudson Bay appear poised to block the
eastward progression of the ridge. This pattern would appear to
favor increasing shower and thunderstorm chances across the area
by early next week if trends continue.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
First round of showers and thunderstorms is moving east into
the western part of the area early this morning. This round of
storms will continue to move east across the area this morning
with additional redevelopment likely on the western edge of
storms as better forcing moves into the region. Amendments will
likely be needed as confidence in convection coverage into this
afternoon increases. Regardless, any storms will be capable of
producing non-VFR conditions and erratic wind gusts to at least
35 knots. Locally higher thunderstorm gusts to 50 knots are
possible primarily at southeastern terminals late this morning
into this afternoon. Another round of showers/storms is possible
ahead of a cold front this evening, but would like to see how
the atmosphere recovers this afternoon before getting too
aggressive with shower/thunderstorms. Lake effect showers/clouds
will likely develop behind the cold front tonight which could
produce MVFR ceilings and perhaps some light showers at
KERI/KYNG/KCLE in the later part of the TAF period.

Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to
20 to 25 knots this morning. As mentioned above, wind gusts will
likely be stronger in thunderstorms. Winds will shift to the
northwest and diminish to about 10 knots with periodic gusts to
20 knots behind a cold front tonight.

Outlook...Residual non-VFR possible on Wednesday in lake effect
rain showers and clouds across the eastern half of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots this morning,
resulting in waves of 3 to 5 feet in the nearshore zones from
roughly Vermilion to Ripley NY. Winds may briefly diminish as a
cold front crosses the area this afternoon/evening, but strong
cold air advection will cause winds to shift to the northwest
and increase to about 20 knots overnight, which will produce
continued elevated waves into Wednesday. The Small Craft Advisory
from Maumee Bay to the Islands has been adjusted to start early
this morning and end at 4 AM Wednesday morning to account for
the enhanced northwest flow behind the cold front. Meanwhile,
the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from the Islands to
Ripley NY from 8 AM this morning until 10 PM Wednesday evening.
Thunderstorms are likely this morning and afternoon which will
result in higher winds/waves.

Winds will diminish below 10 knots by early Thursday morning and
expect light (10 knots or less) and variable flow through at
least the first half of the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for
     OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn/Sullivan
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15