Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

383
FXUS61 KCLE 122333
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
733 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast remains on track with widespread precipitation tonight and
scattered showers through Thursday afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather expected starting tonight through Thursday
afternoon with periodic showers and thunderstorms.

2) Temperatures begin warming Friday into early next week with above
average temperatures likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure enters the Great Lakes region this evening with the
associated warm front moving north through area tonight.
Precipitation will begin out west before midnight and progressing
eastward throughout the night ahead of the cold front. The cold
front will move through the region early Wednesday morning and exit
by the afternoon. There may be some thunderstorms initially when the
showers begin out west, though most of the instability will be
minimal overnight so expecting little thunder if any over
night. Generally expecting a quarter inch of QPF overnight with
the rain showers. Behind the cold front, precipitation across
the western portion of the CWA will end and there will be a
short lull in precipitation out east. Additionally moisture will
return to the region late Wednesday evening as flow shift to be
more north- northwesterly across the region. This will help
support the development of periodic lake enhanced showers across
eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania through Thursday
afternoon. Though, given the lake is still on the cooler side
compared to the air temperature, there will be minimal lake
induced instability impacting the overall extent of the lake
enhanced showers. Warmer upper air temperatures begin to move
into the region Thursday and showers should begin to end by the
evening timeframe. Overall, an additional tenth or two of
precipitation is possible across the primary and secondary
snowbelts through Thursday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Behind the exiting trough, upper level ridging will begin to build
into the region early Friday and the area will see a warming trend
in the temperatures through early next week. The region will be in a
west to southwesterly flow starting Friday afternoon and
temperatures will gradually increase each day through Monday. Highs
on Friday will be 10-15 degrees warmer than on Thursday into the
upper 60s to low 70s. Through the weekend, highs will climb into the
upper 70s to low 80s with the warmest day being Monday as highs will
be in the mid 80s. Overnight lows will be slightly above average as
well, dropping down into the mid 50s through the weekend. Given it`s
almost a week out, there are some disagreements in some models as to
how warm Sunday and Monday will get, so some adjustments in the
temperatures may be needed as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this evening with deterioration to MVFR
and pockets of IFR conditions overnight as a line of rain
showers moves east through the area. The highest confidence for
IFR vsbys in heavier rain is generally along and west of the
I-71 corridor. Intensity of the rain showers should decrease
further east, though still anticipating a brief period of MVFR
vsbys. Otherwise, a brief period of MVFR ceilings may arrive
behind the initial surge of rain early Wednesday morning, before
lifting to low-end VFR, around 3.5kft. Lower ceilings in the
MVFR range will arrive towards the end of the TAF period as
lake- enhanced clouds and rain showers become more likely across
the eastern half of the area.

Winds are generally out of the south this evening, 5 to 10
knots. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest through
this evening and overnight, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts
of 20 to 25 knots, especially west of the I-71 corridor. Winds
will abruptly shift towards the west and northwest behind a cold
front late Wednesday morning and afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with
gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with lingering rain and low ceilings
Wednesday night through Thursday. Non-VFR may return in isolated
to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Calm marine conditions will persist through this afternoon before a
warm front lifts north across Lake Erie, marking a transition to
south-southwesterly winds and an increase to 20-25 knots across the
western and central basins. As a cold front pushes east tonight,
winds will gradually shift to become west-northwesterly, remaining
elevated in the 15-25 knots range. The shift to onshore flow will
result in waves building to 4-6 feet across the central and eastern
basin lakeshores. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for the southern shore of Lake Erie.

On Thursday into Friday, conditions will gradually improve as high
pressure nudges east over the region. This will result in variable
winds of 5-10 knots with waves under 2 feet. Late Sunday, another
warm front will lift north of the area, allowing winds to once again
become southerly and increase to 10-15 knots into the start of next
week. Given offshore flow, no additional marine headlines are
anticipated at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...04