Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

177
FXUS61 KCLE 290525
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
125 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
POPs on the increase in isentropic lift/warm air advection Monday
night ahead of the cold front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm air advection/isentropic lift will kick off prefrontal
showers and storms Monday night.

2) Another significant airmass changing cold front will come through
the region Tuesday night with showers and storms and 25 degree
temperature drops between Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The end of the month of March continues with these dramatic swings
in daytime temperatures with strong cold fronts moving through the
region. Leading up to this next cold front will be warming
temperatures through Sunday and Monday as this chilly area of high
pressure moves to the mid Atlantic coast, and flow becomes southerly
again. A warm front will set up north of the CWA Monday and the
isentropic lift will begin setting off low topped showers and a few
storms late Monday into Monday night. Models are hinting at weak
ripples in the mid and upper level flow as well to assist the
isentropic lift, and coverage will increase along the northern and
eastern fringe of the CWA by 12Z Tuesday. Heading through Tuesday,
the warming continues, and temperatures will be back well into the
70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Cold front expected to enter the northwest zones late Tuesday into
early Tuesday night, and no reason not to expect more showers and
thunderstorms to accompany it. Early indications are again for the
low level winds to increase out of the southwest as the front
approaches and dewpoints to increase into the upper 50s. Still
plenty of time to sort out other details with the system like
instability and ultimately any potential for severe. But as
mentioned above, this will be another airmass changing cold front
and temperatures will drop 20-30 degrees from Tuesday afternoon to
Wednesday afternoon. This will begin a little bit more of an
unsettled pattern, as the next system will come through slightly
quicker as low pressure will quickly eject from the southern plains
region towards the southern Great Lakes for the end of the week. The
results of this will be not quite as low of a starting point for the
temperatures behind the first cold front Wednesday, with 40s as
opposed to the 30s that we have seen over the past couple of weeks,
and precipitation chances back into the fold quicker with the new
area of low pressure approaching. Temperatures will be pushing the
60s again by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR will continue through the TAF period as high pressure
overhead moves to the Mid-Atlantic region. Some mid-high level
clouds will pass through at times, with mid-level clouds
thickening Sunday night and perhaps resulting in a few sprinkles
or light showers near/just after the end of the TAF period.

Light south-southeast winds overnight shift south-southwest and
increase slightly to 8-15kt on Sunday, with a few 20-25kt gusts
during the afternoon. Winds remain south-southwest at near 10kt
Sunday night, with low-level wind shear possible late evening
and overnight as a 40-45kt low-level jet works overhead.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers or isolated thunderstorms
late Monday through early Tuesday. Non-VFR likely Tuesday
night into Wednesday as a cold front brings higher confidence in
showers and thunderstorms, with lingering lower ceilings behind
the front. Additional non-VFR possible in rain on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots are expected in the eastern basin
this afternoon into this evening. Can`t rule out a brief period
of winds to 20 knots east of Conneaut, OH through early this
evening, but the highest winds and waves will likely be east of
Ripley, NY. South/southwest winds will develop late tonight
into Sunday and winds in the open waters of the central basin
may briefly increase above 15 knots late Sunday night into early
Monday. The next opportunity for Small Craft Advisories will
likely arrive as southwest winds deepen in response to an
approaching cold front Tuesday with headlines likely continuing
as winds shift to the northwest late Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. Onshore flow will likely continue but weaken slightly
on Wednesday, but expect winds and waves to increase again on
Thursday. Winds may approach 25 to 30 knots Thursday
morning/afternoon.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...15