Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

323
FXUS61 KCLE 222336
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
736 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No wholesale changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across
Northwest and North Central Ohio later today, especially between
4 PM and 10 PM. Isolated severe weather is possible, with
strong wind gusts and hail up to quarter-sized the main risks.

2) Warmer weather continues through the end of the week. After an
isolated rain chance Thursday afternoon, more widespread rain is
likely late Friday into early Saturday.

3) More unsettled weather is in the forecast early next week
as the next system brings widespread rain and perhaps some
thunderstorms to the area late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As of early this afternoon a frontal boundary is draped from near the
Ohio-Michigan boarder points east-southeast to just south of
Cleveland and over to near Youngstown. A very subtle shortwave and
associated weak surface low is located near the Michigan-Indiana
boarder and will drift east through this evening. The front itself
will likely push a bit farther southwest from its current location
over the next several hours, especially west of Lorain as winds turn
off the cooler lake.

It is currently mostly sunny, dry, and warm across the area,
particularly south of the front. A few thunderstorms are ongoing
across northern Indiana/southwestern Michigan closer to the surface
low. This activity will gradually spread east-southeast into
Northwest and North Central Ohio through this evening as the low and
shortwave drift in, with greatest storm coverage expected along and
just southwest of the front. Storms are expected to weaken and
dissipate tonight as the weak low/shortwave exit and as the
atmosphere stabilizes. Storms will likely start spreading into the
I-75 corridor by 3 or 4 PM, with activity likely to completely
subside by midnight. The northeast half of the area will stay dry on
the cooler/stable side of the front.

Modest deep-layer shear (25-30kt) and instability (500-1500 J/KG of
MLCAPE) can support moderately intense, somewhat organized
convection. Cool/dry air aloft is expected to contribute to 700-900
J/KG of DCAPE, with very steep low-level lapse rates of >9C/km. This
combination of factors can support a few strong to marginally severe
storms, with downbursts/strong winds the main concern with any more
intense cells or small clusters. If we see any more intense or
rotating cells, marginally severe hail can`t be ruled out either.
Any severe threat should subside pretty quickly around/after 8 PM.

Dry weather is then expected overnight with lows ranging from the 40s
in far Northeast OH and Northwest PA to the 50s across the rest of
the area. With light winds and a fairly humid airmass for April
(especially along and southwest of the stalled front) a bit of
radiation fog is possible late tonight into early Thursday, though
lingering clouds near/southwest of the front lower confidence in fog.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The front we`ve been talking about in "key message 1" will still be
in the picture for Thursday...we`ll likely start the day with the
front stalled across Northwest and Central OH, with the front
expected to begin inching northeast through the afternoon. The front
will stall across the lake and near Erie, PA Thursday night. Aside
from the front there will be lack of forcing on Thursday as shortwave
ridging slides east across the region. Still, daytime heating will
contribute to uncapped, weak-moderate (500-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE)
instability that may contribute to isolated storm development near
the slowly lifting front across parts of Ohio during the afternoon.
Overall, Thursday will be a mainly dry and warm day as highs push
well into the 70s across much of the area (Erie may stay in the 60s
and the I-75 corridor may reach 80). It will be dry and mild Thursday
night, with lows mainly in the 50s.

Closed lows will park over the northern Rockies and Canadian
Maritimes by Friday, with a shortwave expected to slide east across
the local area Friday night into Saturday between the two closed
lows. This shortwave will be accompanied by a surface low that will
track along the stalled front near Lake Erie Friday night/early
Saturday. Rain is expected to spread in from the west late Friday
into Friday night with these features, with rain gradually exiting to
the east on Saturday. While the trend will be drier from west to east
through Saturday, it`s worth noting it may end up taking a good
portion of the day for our eastern counties to fully dry out. Some
thunder is possible late Friday into Friday night, especially across
Northwest OH where activity should spread in late Friday afternoon or
evening. The concern for severe weather is on the low side. The
slower-moving system combined with above average precipitable water
values may lead to localized QPF amounts of over an inch Friday into
Saturday, though with area-average QPF values currently closer to the
0.40-0.60" range. Overall, am not expecting flooding.

Friday will remain quite warm, with most of the area expected to see
highs ranging from the mid 70s to near 80. Highs will cool into the
60s Saturday as a cold front drags through behind the low pressure.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
A brief spell of quieter weather is anticipated Saturday night
through at least early Monday as high pressure builds into the Great
Lakes/New England/southeastern Canada. A fairly potent trough is
expected to eject into the Plains to start the week before lifting
into the upper Great Lakes. This will drive fairly strong low
pressure into the northern Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. A
warm front is expected to lift through on Monday, followed by a cold
front Monday night or Tuesday. Either way, more rainy weather is
expected later Monday into Tuesday, along with a brief warm-up on
Monday when we get into the warm sector. This will be a more dynamic
system capable of producing severe weather and perhaps locally heavy
rain, though details such as the timing of the front and amount of
available instability are uncertain at this distance, making the
potential for any hazardous weather uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Scattered thunderstorms are currently moving to the southeast in
a cluster located just north of MFD down to the southwest.
These will begin to dissipate over the next couple of hours
with the sun setting, though are still capable of 30-40 knot
gusts as they pass through. At this time, only MFD is expected
to see impacts and KCAK should stay to the northeast of the
storms.

Overnight, a stable layer should develop near the surface from
areas around and south of US 30 that could be conducive for
non-VFR visibility to develop. Though, depending on how much
cloud cover remains into the morning, fog will struggle to
develop. Opted for a tempo group from 09-13Z tomorrow morning
dropping visibility down to 1SM for KTOL, KFDY, KMFD, and KCAK
given the low confidence in location and formation of the fog.
Confidence decreases further north and east for any development.

Winds will become light and variable across the region as the
storms move out of the area. A light predominant wind will
begin tomorrow midday out of the southwest at 5-10 knots. For
KCLE and KERI, they will be under the influence of a lake breeze
tomorrow afternoon and winds will shift from being out of the
south to the north-northeast but remain fairly light.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR
possible Thursday afternoon, Friday evening into Saturday
morning, and on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
A very weak front should waver in a north-south manner between the
southern shore of Lake Erie and Mid OH through Friday as very weak
lows move generally E`ward along the front and this front is
augmented by the Lake Erie lake breeze at times. A lake breeze
around 5 to 10 knots through this early evening will gave way to
primarily NE`erly to E`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots tonight
through Friday as a high pressure ridge attempts to build from
northern ON and eventually northern QC. These winds will trend
onshore during the late morning through early evening hours of
Thursday due to renewed lake breeze development. Waves will be 3
feet or less through sunset Friday evening.

During Friday night through Saturday morning, the aforementioned
front should be located near the southern lakeshore. Simultaneously,
a somewhat stronger low should move E`ward along the front and cause
winds around 5 to 15 knots to back from ENE`erly to N`erly to
NW`erly. Behind the low, the front will exit SE`ward as another high
pressure ridge builds from the north-central United States through
this weekend. Accordingly, NNW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots
should veer gradually to NE`erly to E`erly. On Monday, the ridge
should begin to exit E`ward and cause NE`erly to E`erly winds around
5 to 15 knots to veer toward SE`erly and freshen to about 10 to 20
knots. Waves should remain 3 feet or less Friday night through this
Monday, but occasional 4 footers are possible in open U.S. waters on
Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...23
MARINE...Jaszka