Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

812
FXUS61 KCLE 272257
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
657 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Light showers have expanded north in an arc from Lorain to
Youngstown late this afternoon. These showers will tend to
dissipate through approximately 7 PM while additional scattered
showers are expected across Central Ohio.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Very hot and humid conditions are expected across the region
Tuesday through Friday. Preparations should be made now to help
mitigate the effects of prolonged heat later this week.

2) Chances of showers and thunderstorms return to the local area
Friday and continue into the Holiday Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A pattern change is in store to start the week as a warm front lifts
north on Monday and the upper level ridge expands across the Great
Lakes Region. An anomalously strong ridge is expected to develop
with 500mb heights of 594dm reaching Detroit on Tuesday and Buffalo
on Wednesday. Some variability in timing shortwave energy trying to
suppress the ridge develops in the models by Thursday, but overall
confidence is above normal in a stretch of high heat and humid
conditions in the Tuesday to Friday period. Stay tuned for the
latest forecast information as a combination of Heat Advisories and
Extreme Heat Warnings are likely. See the Climate section below
for record highs next week.

The warming trend will get underway on Monday as a warm front lifts
north. Can`t rule out an isolated shower near or north of the Toledo
with the front Monday morning but confidence was not high enough to
include in the forecast yet. After that time, southerly flow returns
with warm advection pushing 925mb temperatures of up to 26C in
Northwest Ohio. With dewpoints reaching the low 70s on Monday in
western Ohio, heat index values may reach or exceed 100 degrees
along the I-75 corridor. Eastern portions of the forecast area will
only experience slightly above normal temperatures on Monday with
lower humidity. The heat really becomes established across most of
the area on Tuesday as highs reach or exceed 90 with mid to upper
90s in NW Ohio and extending east to Cleveland. The heat will become
more oppressive as we experience consecutive days in the 90s through
at least Thursday and overnight lows that remain warm, especially
closer to Lake Erie.

A strong capping inversion is expected to be in place with 700mb
temperatures of 10C or more through Thursday. With generally weak
flow, lake breezes are likely to develop and keep temperatures a few
degrees cooler along the lakeshore east of Cleveland. Not out of the
question to see an isolated thunderstorm or two along the lake
breeze by Thursday. Chances of thunderstorms trend upwards by Friday
as moisture increases into the region which could impact
temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Confidence in pattern evolution towards the end of the week is
low but generally shows the upper level ridge starting to be
suppressed to the south. This will likely result in an increase
in moisture and scattered showers and thunderstorms heading
into the holiday weekend. Timing and favored placement will need
to refined over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
An area of low ceilings remains persistent across portions of
the central highlands this evening with cloud heights generally
ranging from 1-3kft. These conditions are currently impacting
KMFD and KCAK, but may improve to low end VFR at times over the
next couple hours. After sunset, models suggest that a low layer
of moisture will linger, but there is uncertainty if this will
present itself as low stratus or as fog. Opted to maintain the
mention of IFR ceilings of 500-800 feet late tonight with
reduced visibilities to 2SM for most southern terminals. The
exception to this was KFDY which will likely remain MVFR. This
forecast is highly dependent on how much clearing the area sees.
For terminals along the lakeshore, expect VFR conditions to
prevail through this period.

Winds will remain light and variable into tomorrow before a lake
breeze develops and terminals along the lakeshore see a NNE wind
of 5-10 knots develop. After sunset on Sunday, winds will once
again return to light and variable.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Sunday morning into early afternoon
in fog/mist and low ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak low pressure moves to the south of Lake Erie today as high
pressure will build in across the region this evening from the
north. Conditions across the lake will be rather quiet for the next
several days with winds out of the northeast at around 10 knots,
weakening to 5-10 knots tonight with the high building in. Monday
evening, a warm front will move north across the region and winds
will shift to be out of the south-southwest and increase to around
10 knots. High pressure builds into the region next week with quiet
conditions expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hotter and more humid weather is expected this Monday through Friday.
Record warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
06-29   100(1952)      96(1934)       94(2012)       98(1952)       99(1933)       90(2021)
06-30   97(1953)       94(1970)       95(1941)       96(1913)       94(1942)       92(1930)
07-01   98(1931)       98(1931)       95(2002)       97(1931)       96(1931)       94(2018)
07-02   98(2011)       97(1931)       97(1954)       98(1931)       98(1931)       94(1963)
07-03   100(1911)      93(2020)       98(1949)       97(1911)       98(1898)       93(1934)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...04
MARINE...23