Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

308
FXUS61 KCLE 091225
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
725 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Primary changes with this update revolve around the gusty winds
today. Opted to extend the Wind Advisory to include counties
along and north of US-224 out west and along the lakeshore for
eastern counties. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible, especially
late this morning through the afternoon. In addition, a Gale
Warning has been issued for the eastern portion of Lake Erie
this afternoon into tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds this morning, especially within showers, will
become more widespread late this morning into the afternoon as a
cold front moves east. High temperatures this morning will
gradually cool throughout the day.

2) A low pressure moves northeast through the region Saturday,
ushering in a colder airmass and a transition from rain to snow.
Lake effect snow showers possible Sunday into Sunday night for
the snowbelt.

3) Another round of precipitation expected Tuesday night into
Wednesday as another low moves through the region with rain
expected to gradually transition to snow behind the associated cold
front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Today, an area of low pressure is expected to track northeast
across the Western Great Lakes region, moving a cold front east
late this morning through the afternoon. Within the warm sector
of this low this morning, gusty showers are possible as a LLJ of
60-70 knots pushes across the area. As a result, any showers
that develop have the potential to mix down strong winds with
gusts up to 45 mph possible.

A brief lull in winds is possible early this morning before the
cold front and associated strong CAA arrives late this morning
into the afternoon. As this cold front moves east, gusty
synoptic winds are expected, especially across the northern tier
of counties, with gusts up to 50 mph possible. These gusts will
gradually spread east, with the exception of Erie County in PA
which is already being impacted with gusty winds due to local
enhancement from downsloping. As a result of these expected
conditions, a Wind Advisory has been issued across the northern
CWA.

In addition to the gusty winds, there will also be quite the
temperature swing across the area. Temperatures currently are in
the mid to upper 50s which will consistently cool with the
frontal passage to be in the mid 30s tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

On Saturday, two low pressure will impact the area with one over
the northern Great Lakes and the other near the Ohio Valley.
These lows will merge and create a deepening low over the
Northeast. These two systems will result in widespread rain
showers on Saturday gradually transitioning to all snow showers
by Sunday as the cold front moves east. Much of the area will
dry out on Sunday, but a lingering surface trough will result in
lake effect snow showers impacting the snowbelt. This should be
a fairly short duration lake effect potential given the
progressive nature of the synoptic pattern, but could see a
couple inches especially across the higher elevations. Will have
to continue to monitor this system, especially for timing of the
trough and shifting winds which will impact the overall snowfall
totals.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

On Tuesday night into Wednesday, another low pressure system and
associated trough dips across the area, moving another cold
front east. This system will once again start with much of the
area above normal for temperatures, potentially reaching into
the mid 40s before the cold front sweeps east and highs drop
back into the 30s. This will result in another period of rain
transitioning to snow. Models diverge quite a bit on the
progression of this system, but worth noting given the potential
for additional snowfall and big temperature swings.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Rain with VFR ceilings is moving through the airspace this
morning ahead of a cold front. There are some isolated pockets
of MVFR visibility with the rain, but outside of an area of
moderate rain moving through NW PA into KERI, it is difficult to
pin down MVFR visibility with any confidence. Behind this area
of rain, surface winds will begin to pick up again with gusts in
the 30 to 45 kt range, highest further north. Guidance and
upstream observations in western Indiana and Illinois show that
MVFR should also start to move in with the cold front later this
morning into the afternoon. Winds will shift from southwest to
west with the frontal passage. This evening as gusts settle,
winds will become northwest at 10 kts or less. MVFR ceilings
will remain but may begin trending below 2000 ft with the cold
air advection.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in rain showers Saturday and
Saturday night. Non-VFR possible across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania in lake effect snow showers on Sunday and
in rain/snow showers Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore flow is performing as expected early this morning with
a southerly 50 kt low level jet moving over the lake. Winds of
20 to 30 kts are translating down to the surface and has
validated the ongoing Small Craft Advisory for all of the
nearshore zones of Lake Erie. Later this afternoon, a cold front
will cross the lake, allowing for winds to become southwesterly
then westerly. With this frontal passage, a stronger low level
jet to 70 kts will move over the lake and translate to winds of
30 to 40 kts with the higher end of that range over the eastern
half of the lake. Therefore, have upgraded the Gale Watch to a
Gale Warning from 1 to 10 PM today. Have also extended the Small
Craft Advisory for the Vermilion to Avon Point OH zone to 10 PM
as well. Winds will be quick to diminish tonight with high
pressure building from the north with flow eventually settling
on an easterly direction by Saturday morning.

For Saturday evening through Tuesday, the pattern continues to
be active with another low pressure system moving over the lake
and strengthening as it passes by. Winds will be on the increase
with 15 to 25 kts to start, eventually reaching 30 kts of southwest
flow on Sunday. There is the potential for this system to trend
stronger and more favorable for gale force winds on Sunday, so
while Small Craft Advisories seem likely for the weekend, there
is potential for another gale headline. The low departs and a
trough develops over the lake allowing for strong northwest flow
to continue. High pressure will build into the region from the
southwest early next week. This feature will shift flow to the
southwest, but a strong pressure gradient will remain over the
lake and offshore flow may continue at 20 kts. Therefore, any
Small Craft Advisory headline issued this weekend has potential
to last into next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected today with record
high temperatures possible. Here are the record high
temperatures for area climate sites for January 9:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
01-09   59(1880)       61(1946)       66(1937)       63(1946)       66(1937)       64(1937)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ003-006>009-
     017>019.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for OHZ010>014-020-089.
PA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ145-
     146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ147>149.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this
     evening for LEZ147>149-167>169.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic