Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

723
FXUS61 KCLE 120105
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
905 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The risk for severe weather has ended across the forecast area
this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong winds expected Friday with passing low pressure
system.

2) Active pattern continues through middle of next week with a
series of low pressure systems moving through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1:
A potent low pressure system will be moving into the Great Lakes
region Thursday night into Friday morning. Winds in the low-
levels will begin increasing to 50-60 knots at 925mb with warm
air advection by Friday morning. Precipitation will be minimal
for the most part though will help mix down the winds to the
surface in the afternoon. Winds will be gusting up to 60 mph
with the strongest of the gusts being west of the I-71 corridor.
Additionally, winds will be gusting in NE OH and NW PA in the
early afternoon along the ridge as winds will be out of the
south to southwest and will be downsloping. A Wind Advisory will
likely be needed for the areas west of I-71 and in NE OH and NW
PA. Winds will begin to subside Friday evening as a cold front
passes through and winds back to be out of the west to
northwest.

KEY MESSAGE #2:
An active pattern will continue through the middle of next week
as an upper level trough sets up across eastern CONUS. A series
of low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes
beginning on Friday. For Friday, outside of the winds mentioned
in the key message above, precipitation should be minimal though
will begin as a rain/snow mix due to southerly flow and warm air
advection. Temperatures will warm above freezing throughout the
day and all precipitation will change over to rain and should
exit the area by Friday evening. Another low pressure system
will move into the region late Saturday night as a warm front
lifts north. Precipitation will start off as snow, with some
accumulation possible, then change over to rain as the warm
front moves through. As the cold front moves into the region,
rain will be the primary precipitation type then change over
quickly behind the cold front with much colder air being ushered
in. With this colder air, there is potential for some lingering
lake effect snow showers across NE OH and NW PA Sunday night
into Tuesday. Given the event is several days away, finer
details of impacts and totals remain uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Showers are moving east across the area with a cold front,
although most of the activity is now to the east of KTOL/KFDY. A
few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out in the vicinity of
KCAK/KYNG in the first hour or two of the TAF period, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this point. Rain
may very briefly mix with snow before precip ends later
tonight. Otherwise, a mixed bag of MVFR/IFR is expected tonight
before conditions improve from west to east as high pressure
begins to build into the region early Thursday. VFR conditions
will likely develop at far eastern terminals by 15Z or so.

Breezy northwest winds are expected behind the cold front with
sustained winds to 15 to 20 knots and gusts to 25 to 30 knots
anticipated through about 06Z. Winds will diminish a bit late
tonight, although gusts to 15 to 25 knots are still likely
through the majority of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered rain/snow showers on
Friday. Gusty west to southwest winds of at least 35 to 40 knots
are expected on Friday. Non-VFR likely to return in rain/snow
showers Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
A week of active marine weather is expected for Lake Erie. Low
pressure with a cold front will move through the region tonight
and allow for increasing northwest flow over the basin. A Small
Craft Advisory remains for the nearshore waters of Lake Erie
through Thursday for elevated winds and waves. Thursday will
have a reprieve with high pressure entering with backing flow.
Friday will be the most impactful day of the period with a
strong low pressure system moving through the region and a
stronger cold front crossing the lake. Southerly flow will
quickly increase on Friday to 30 kts and gale force winds are
possible with the cold frontal passage on Friday evening. Have
gone ahead and issued the Gale Watch for the entire lake. High
pressure will quickly enter for Saturday and winds will be quick
to subside. Another strong low pressure system will target the
region early next week and may have additional strong winds with
elevated waves on the lake. More marine headlines may be needed.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ142>144.
     Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for
     LEZ142>147-162>167.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ145>149.
     Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for
     LEZ148-149-168-169.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...15
MARINE...Sefcovic