Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

557
FXUS61 KCLE 181127
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
727 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Trended high temperatures up a degree or two for today and Tuesday
in central and eastern portions of the area. The Marginal Risk for
Severe Thunderstorms has been expanded across northern Ohio into
Northwest Pennsylvania for this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The hottest temperatures of the year arrive today and continue on
Tuesday. The heat will break behind a cold front on Wednesday with
below normal temperatures continuing into Thursday.

2) A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Northwest
Ohio and across the northern counties this afternoon and evening.
The potential for severe thunderstorms returns on Tuesday afternoon
with greater coverage of storms expected. Damaging wind gusts to
60 mph and hail are the primary concerns with severe
thunderstorms.

3) Unsettled conditions are expected heading into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The local area resides in the warm sector today with a ridge
over the Appalachians and 500mb heights of 585dm. A
southwesterly pressure gradient supports warm advection with
925mb temperatures reaching 24-25C. Winds are expected to gust
to 20-25 mph in the east and up to 30 mph in the west which will
help to mix out dewpoints and keep humidity/heat index values
in check. The high temperature forecast was raised by 1-3
degrees from north central Ohio into Northwest Pennsylvania for
this afternoon with highs expected in the upper 80s to near 90
degrees and heat index values only running about a degree
higher. With that said, this is the first near 90 degree day of
the season and people will likely feel the effects of heat more
easily. Several climate sites are forecast to be within a degree
or two of record values(see the climate section below). The
temperature forecast for Tuesday is a little more tricky as we
have to contend with increasing cloud cover and higher chances
of precipitation during the afternoon. Dewpoints also trend up
closer to the mid 60s so humidity will be more noticeable. Due
to the increasing clouds and moisture, temperatures will likely
top out a couple degrees lower than Monday but heat index will
be virtually the same.

The brief bout of near record highs will abruptly end on Wednesday
behind a strong cold front. 850mb temperatures fall by 11-12C in 24
hours with a northwesterly flow off the lake. High temperatures are
forecast to be 20-25 degrees cooler by Wednesday and remain cool on
Thursday. Temperatures do gradually trend warmer heading into the
holiday weekend but will be impacted by chances for precipitation.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Convection is ongoing this morning from the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan extending southwest to Iowa ahead of low pressure
located over western Wisconsin. A moist and unstable airmass
advances eastward into the Central Great Lakes today as the
trough over the Great Basin shifts east into the Plains states.
Leading shortwave energy across northern Wisconsin tends to
weaken while another shortwave is expected to move across
Indiana and western Ohio later today. While we start the day
capped, mixed layer CAPE of 800-1100 may sneak into northwest
Ohio late this afternoon ahead of the shortwave which comes with
increasing shear values. The better lift skirts Lake Erie and
the lakeshore counties into this evening and may have to monitor
for a few stronger storms moving east from Toledo towards Erie
in the 4-9 PM window. While activity is generally expected to
dissipate for the overnight hours, a moist and weakly unstable
airmass resides overhead tonight so kept a low pop in the
forecast through Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday surface low pressure is forecast to move northeast across
Lake Superior with a cold front extending south through the Central
Great Lakes. A pre-frontal trough with moderate instability moves
into NW Ohio during the afternoon on Tuesday. Expecting good
coverage of showers and thunderstorms to develop west of the
I-71 corridor during the afternoon with around 2000 J/kg of ML
CAPE and 20-30 knots of bulk shear. Thunderstorms will continue
eastward through the evening. This looks to present a scattered
wind and hail threat for Tuesday afternoon and evening from
about 2-10 PM. Storm relative helicity values are slightly
higher in the northeast with good veering of the flow with
height and the Storm Prediction Center has included a low end
tornado threat for that area.

Rain will linger along the cold front Tuesday night into early
Wednesday with a drying trend through the day on Wednesday as broad
high pressure expands south of Lake Erie.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Confidence in pattern evolution is low heading into
the upcoming holiday weekend. Models depict southwesterly flow and
moisture advection later Friday into Saturday ahead of a trough
approaching from the Plains and a ridge along the East Coast. This
will likely result in an unsettled pattern with periods of showers
and thunderstorms. Timing is difficult this far out but could see
the first round of precipitation Friday night into Saturday then
additional precipitation possible later in the day on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Mainly VFR expected for the TAF period but with some convective
potential. Convection will likely develop to the west this
afternoon and spread towards TOL and FDY early this evening
before weakening. Have a window of -SHRA with a TEMPO for TSRA
with gusty winds and more significant restrictions at TOL and
FDY early this evening. It is uncertain how far east
thunderstorms will get before dissipating, so included a PROB30
as far east as CLE and MFD for lower confidence potential. Once
thunderstorms dissipate this evening, a decaying batch of
lighter rain showers may continue east-northeast for a few more
hours. Outside of convective potential, afternoon cumulus will
likely produce a SCT sky around 040-050 at times today.

Winds are generally 5-10kt out of the south early this morning.
Winds will shift south-southwest and increase to 12-18kt with
gusts to around 25kt late this morning into this afternoon.
Winds lose their gustiness tonight. There is low-level wind
shear potential tonight beneath a 40kt low-level jet,
especially across Northwest OH. For now included LLWS tonight
for TOL and FDY where the strongest jet will be oriented. The
low-level jet is marginally strong and timing of the surface
decoupling is uncertain, so didn`t include farther east yet.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely at times in showers/thunderstorms
Tuesday into Wednesday. Non-VFR possible in showers on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds are slightly elevated at 10-15kt early this morning
and will continue today. Gusts up to 25kt are possible in the
nearshore waters west of Cleveland this afternoon. Thunderstorms
may reach western Lake Erie this evening, and could pack brief
wind gusts over 35kt before dissipating while tracking east.
Otherwise, southerly winds will remain slightly elevated at
10-15kt tonight into Tuesday. Winds increase a bit further to
15-20kt Tuesday afternoon, with gusts potentially up to 30kt in
the nearshore waters west of Cleveland. Small craft headlines
remain possible for Tuesday. There is additional thunderstorm
potential spreading from west to east Tuesday afternoon and
evening along and ahead of a cold front, again with potential
for storms over the lake to pack strong wind gusts over 35kt.

Winds whip around to the north late Tuesday night into
Wednesday behind the cold front, and gradually shift more
northeasterly Wednesday into Thursday and more easterly for
Friday. These winds are currently forecast to be around 15kt
which would bring choppiness, but there is a chance winds trend
up closer to 20kt Thursday into Friday, which could warrant
some small craft/beach hazards headlines.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperatures today and Tuesday will approach record values.
The following are the records for May 18 and 19 at local climate
sites.

Date    Toledo    Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
05-18   95(1962)  92(1962)   91(1962)    92(1962)   92(1962)    89(1889)
05-19   92(1996)  88(1964)   88(1998)    91(1911)   89(1934)    90(1996)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan