Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

285
FXUS61 KCLE 291203
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
703 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast remains on track with sustained cold weather
through Sunday night. There will be intermittent low chances
for light snow through Saturday night. There is increasing
confidence in a slight pattern shift to allow for less frigid,
but still below normal temperatures, next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Very cold weather persists through Sunday night with nightly air
temperatures below zero and wind chills of 10 degrees below zero
or colder. The air temperatures may approach record low values
on Friday and Saturday mornings. The cold weather will continue
to pose a significant risk of exposure to people and animals
and damage to infrastructure.

2) There are intermittent snow chances through Saturday night,
mainly today, Friday night, and Saturday, with lake effect snow
and the Arctic high pressure enter the region. There may be some
low end travel impacts with any repetitive shower activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
While a surface trough remains in the region today, a strong
Arctic high pressure system will begin advancing southward
today, reaching the US/Canada boarder in the Upper Midwest by
Friday morning. This surface high will continue to expand south
and east through the weekend and allow for a reinforcing shot of
colder air through the region. High temperatures will stay below
20 degrees through Sunday and low temperatures will be near to
below zero nightly through Sunday night.

For this morning, a mix of clouds from the trough and upstream
lake effect has covered a large portion of the area. This has
allowed for slightly "milder" air temperatures staying above
zero. These clouds will push south through daybreak and there
may be a brief drop below zero and combined with 10 kts of wind,
there will be a short window for wind chills of -15F or so.
Therefore, will maintain the Cold Weather Advisory through 11 AM
for a portion of Northeast Ohio.

For tonight into Friday, less clouds and colder air advecting
into the region will allow for more widespread and longer
lasting temperatures below zero. However, with the advancement
of the surface high, winds will calm in the decoupling
atmosphere and the ambient temperature and wind chill will
likely be the same. Therefore, while the air temperatures may be
colder, the wind chills may be less frigid than recent days.
Therefore, have not issued a Cold Weather Advisory for tonight
into Friday. If some slightly stronger winds can develop on the
higher elevations of northern Ohio and NW PA, there could be a
portion of the area that could briefly hit advisory levels, but
confidence is low on the headline need at this time.

For Friday night into Saturday, this period will be the coldest
of the entire stretch with potential record-breaking low
temperatures in the -5 to -15F range for the forecast area.
However, these values are going to be achieved only if high
pressure allows for a a fully decoupled atmosphere and there can
be a brief period without clouds or snow showers to interrupt
the temperature drop. This seems likely to happen for most of
the forecast area with some waning confidence in NW PA and far
NE OH. If the surface high does allow for these temperatures to
drop, there will be very little wind across the region until
closer to daybreak on Saturday as the upper trough axis crosses
the region. Overall, there continues to be support for at least
another Cold Weather Advisory for Friday night. If winds pick up
more than currently anticipated, there is an outside chance for
an Extreme Cold headline.

With 4 additional days of temperatures of 20 degrees or colder
expected, the strain from the cold will increase daily. This
prolonged stretch of cold conditions will result in increased
infrastructure problems, including burst pipes and dead car
batteries. There will be additional stress on people and
animals, as well. Folks should continue to limit time outdoors
and wear protective clothing to prevent frostbite and other
impacts from cold exposure, including hypothermia. Pets and
other animals should have limited time outdoors.

There will be a slight "pattern break" behind the high pressure
system next week. High temperatures in the 20s are currently
expected with a warm front behind the system and low
temperatures will rise above zero. However, temperatures are
not expected above freezing any time soon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
There will be several low chances for snow for portions of the
area through Saturday night with lake effect snow continuing to
flare across the region and several waves of energy moving
through ahead of the Arctic surface high. Snow early this
morning through today will be a function of a surface trough
remaining across the area and some lake enhancement through some
of the small remaining cracks in Lake Erie and upstream
connections to Lakes Michigan and Superior. Only expecting a few
tenths of snow in the worst case scenario. Overall, the
aggregate air mass across the region is very dry and not
expecting efficient snows at this time.

The main upper trough axis will push through on Friday night
into Saturday and allow for flow to shift northerly. The trough
itself may flare up some snow showers across the region. More
importantly, this trough will allow for the Lake Huron fetch to
enter the forecast area more fully. With that, have some low
PoPs to address the snow potential. Will need to see if
coverage/persistent of snow will increase and if PoPs need to be
pushed to chance for portions of Saturday. Again, the overall
air mass is dry with this Arctic pattern, so not expecting too
much snow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Light lake-effect snow showers will bring periods of MVFR cigs
and visibilities to KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI this morning,
with conditions expected to improve from late morning through
early afternoon. This will take the longest to completely end at
KERI. Otherwise, arctic high pressure starting to build in from
the Upper Midwest will allow for mainly VFR today through most
of tonight. Confidence is increasing that some stratus clouds
may bring MVFR cigs late tonight, so introduced that in the end
of the TAFs.

SW winds of 5-10 knots this morning will turn NW this afternoon
and further decrease, becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through this weekend with the
exception of diurnal low-end VFR or MVFR ceilings and transient
light snow showers. A more widespread non-VFR threat may arrive
on Monday in snow showers with a clipper.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet conditions will continue on Lake Erie through early
next week as a strong arctic high builds overhead. W winds this
morning will slowly veer NW this afternoon and decrease to 5-10
knots, with winds becoming light and variable tonight and NNW
Friday. NNW winds will slightly increase to 10-15 knots Saturday
into Saturday night before turning WNW and decreasing to 5-10 knots
Sunday. Winds will turn SW and increase to 10-15 knots Monday ahead
of a trough progressing through the Great Lakes.

The arctic airmass and relatively light wind field across the region
will allow ice on Lake Erie to further expand and thicken through
the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low temperatures are possible on Friday and Saturday. Here
are the daily record low minimum temperatures for January 30 and 31:

Date    Toledo      Mansfield    Cleveland    Akron        Youngstown   Erie
01-30   -10(2019)   -10(2019)    -4(1873)     -6(1965)     -8(1965)     -4(2019)
01-31   -10(2019)    -7(2019)    -5(1971)     -5(1948)     -9(1948)     -6(1899)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for OHZ006-
     008-009-017>019-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas