Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

218
FXUS61 KCLE 201137
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
737 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Scattered showers will be slower to diminish today, lingering into
this afternoon for some areas. Increased northeast winds on
Thursday, especially near the lakeshore and in northwest Ohio.
Lowered high temperatures across the northeast on Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below normal temperatures expected today and Thursday.

2) Widespread rain of 1-1.5 inches is expected late Friday into
Saturday with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms over
the weekend. Area rivers will experience some rises and a couple may
experience minor flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
At 4 AM a cold front was located across Lake Erie into
Northwest Ohio. This front will push south this morning ushering
in a dramatically cooler airmass. High temperatures for the day
are occurring early this morning with temperatures falling
through midday. Temperatures at 850mb will fall by approximately
10C between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon with
afternoon values in the upper 50s to low 60s with a cool north
wind. For some areas this will be 25-30 degrees lower than
yesterday.

In addition, skies will be mostly cloudy as moisture continues to
stream northeast overhead. A tightly packed frontal boundary in
the 925-850mb layer will trail the surface front into this
afternoon, prolonging shower activity. Additional showers will
generally be light although some elevated instability will
remain into the morning and will maintain a slight chance of a
thunderstorm across the south.

High pressure will strengthen over the Upper Great Lakes tonight
into Thursday. Thursday will have a good deal of sun which will help
temperatures recover into the 60s. Locations near Lake Erie will be
influenced by a brisk northeast wind off the lake, limiting
temperatures to the lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure will build to New England on Friday as a shortwave
trough lifts from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. A good
deal of moisture advection will spread north into the region as
a surface trough moves north to the Ohio Valley by 00Z Sat.
Overrunning will lead to a northward expansion of rain through
the day on Friday, becoming widespread by evening. There is high
confidence in rain on Friday night, becoming focused more
across the east on Saturday as the trough continues north across
Lake Erie. Rainfall from Friday and Saturday looks to be in the
1-1.5 inch range but adjustments are likely. This rain will
lead to rises on rivers and perhaps a couple rivers experiencing
minor flooding.

Temperatures on Friday are generally expected to be cool in the 60s,
but will be impacted by the timing of rain. The above mentioned
trough does lift a warm front north into the area on Saturday with
southerly flow and decreasing showers later in the day bringing a
return of warmer temperatures, mainly across the southern and
western portion of the local area. Dryer air looks to move overhead
Sunday morning before moisture and instability increase again during
the afternoon. Temperatures continue to climb as the warm front
lifts north. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Cold front continuing to push southeast across the area this
morning, with a brief period of IFR or lower ceilings along and
just behind the front. Ceilings will gradually lift through MVFR
and eventually to VFR from north to south through this afternoon
as drier air filters in, though it will be a gradual process
especially farther south. Occasional showers and light rain will
be around through this afternoon, ceiling restrictions will be
more common but some MVFR visibility is possible too. Showers
will be most focused south of TOL-CLE-ERI (though CLE will see
some this morning) and gradually decrease this afternoon into
this evening as drier air filters in. Winds will be out of the
north-northeast at close to 10kt today and this evening,
decreasing a bit tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected at times in rain late Friday through
Saturday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief
non-VFR again possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are quickly turning north-northeast early this morning as
a cold front crosses the lake. Winds will briefly increase to
around 15kt across the western and central basins this morning,
which will briefly build waves to 2-4 feet with those waves
being driven towards the shore. Winds briefly lull this
afternoon. A stronger pressure gradient is expected Thursday
into Friday as high pressure slides north and northeast of Lake
Erie. Winds will turn northeast tonight and increase to 15-20kt.
Winds will remain northeast and increase further to 20-25kt at
times Thursday and Thursday night. Winds gradually turn more
easterly and then southeasterly Friday and Friday night,
remaining elevated at 15-25kt until late Friday night or early
Saturday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements
will be needed for most or all nearshore waters beginning
overnight tonight or early Thursday. Will not hoist those with
this package but they will be coming today at some point.

Looking ahead to the holiday weekend, generally southerly winds
may be elevated enough to cause issues for smaller craft on
Saturday. Winds will trend lighter for Sunday and Monday and
eventually come around to the northwest. It will be unsettled
with periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms Saturday
and Sunday, with a drying trend likely by Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan