Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

962
FXUS61 KCLE 091820
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
120 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in lake effect snow Tuesday night into Thursday is
increasing, so have increased precipitation chances and
QPF/snowfall amounts. There`s also low-end potential of a brief
period of mixed precipitation across NW PA late tonight into
Tuesday morning, but any impacts should be marginal.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of lake effect snow showers likely across portions
of the snowbelt region of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania Tuesday night into Thursday.

2) Temperatures will trend warmer but remain close to normal
for the majority of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front will begin to lift northeast into the area late
tonight into Tuesday morning, followed by a cold front on
Tuesday afternoon. Most of the area will experience dry weather
through Tuesday afternoon, although there is a low-end chance of
a very brief period of mixed precipitation (including light freezing
rain and/or sleet mixing with snow) across portions of NW PA
tonight into early Tuesday morning. Any impacts should be
minimal given the short duration of freezing precipitation.

Periodic lake effect snow showers will return to the snowbelt
region of NE OH/NW PA Tuesday through at least Thursday morning as
cold air advection develops over Lake Erie late Tuesday night.
Generally expect light snowfall rates with maximum 30 to 36
hour snowfall totals of 2 to 5 inches likely across the higher
terrain of inland Northwest Pennsylvania and lesser amounts
elsewhere. The extended duration of snowfall will result in
less impacts and headlines aren`t expected at this time,
although there may be periods of snow-covered roadways and/or
reduced visibility in any heavier snow bands that develop.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
While a few spots have touched freezing in the last week, most
locations will see their first day with temperatures above
freezing in quite some time on Tuesday as highs climb into the
upper 30s and lower 40s. Cold air advection will cause
temperatures to dip Wednesday and Thursday, although
temperatures certainly won`t be as bitterly cold as recent days.
Temperatures will likely rise above freezing and stay above
freezing by the weekend, but temps may vary depending on the
exact track of a system that will lift along the East Coast and
perhaps the local area sometime late this weekend. Precipitation
is likely with this system, although precipitation type will
depend on temperatures.

The gradually warming temperatures will result in a relatively
gradual thaw/melt in snowpack and river ice. While minor ice
jam issues cannot be completely ruled out over the weekend, the
thaw should be gradual enough to preclude a significant ice jam
flooding risk. At the very least, ice is not expected to grow on
area rivers/streams/creeks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
As high pressure persist over the area, conditions in this TAF
period should remain VFR for all terminals. Clouds near 6kft
will continue to spread east this afternoon, eventually
blanketing the area. Winds will remain under 10 knots out of
the south- southeast through tonight. They will gain a more
southerly component on Tuesday morning as a warm front lifts
north, increasing to 7-12 knots with local gusts up to 20 knots.
possible. Did opt to mention LLWS for KTOL from 12-15Z which is
when the LLJ will push north, but little to no mixing will
initially limit gusts at the surface. After that, handled wind
concerns with gusts.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in snow showers across NE OH and NW
PA Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie remains nearly completely ice-covered with a notable
crack observed on satellite extending from Cleveland to points
northeast. Winds tonight will remain south-southeasterly at less
than 10 knots. Winds will shift to become south-southwesterly on
Tuesday and increase to 10-15 knots as a warm front lifts north.
As an associated cold front sweeps east late Tuesday into
Wednesday, winds will back to become west-northwesterly and
increase 13-20 knots. Winds will gradually weaken to below 15
knots for Thursday into the start of the weekend. Ice will be
prone to some movement east of the Lake Erie Islands this week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04