Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

110
FXUS61 KCLE 122323
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
723 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Quiet weather will continue through Saturday with warming
temperatures.

2) Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday night
into Sunday, with an active pattern continuing through next
week that will bring multiple precipitation chances and variable
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Broad mid/upper troughing over the northern tier of the CONUS
will continue to supply cooler conditions through tonight, and
as surface high pressure drifts across the Ohio Valley, the
clear skies and relatively light winds will allow for a
refreshingly cool night as lows dip into the upper 50s/low 60s.

The surface high will quickly shift into the Mid Atlantic region
Saturday as the active mid/upper trough over the northern tier
sends another shortwave and associated cold front into the Great
Lakes. This will allow for southerly return flow, boosting highs
into the mid/upper 80s in most areas Saturday, except low 80s
will persist in far NE Ohio and NW PA. The good news is that dew
points will remain tolerable, so it will still be a fairly
pleasant day under lots of sunshine.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The aforementioned mid/upper shortwave will drop through the
central and southern Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday
morning, with coupling of two 80-90+ knot H3 jet streaks
inducing a strengthening surface low near southern Ontario
Sunday morning that will lift through the eastern Great Lakes
through the day. This will drag a strong cold front through the
region by midday Sunday. The jet coupling and associated strong
upper divergence will lead to unseasonably strong frontogenetic
forcing, so rain should be pretty widespread late Saturday night
into much of Sunday before drying out from west to east Sunday
night. Abundant cloud cover and rain combined with the early day
frontal passage should greatly limit any severe weather threat,
but PWATs increasing to seasonably high values of 1.25 to 1.50
inches along with the forcing and weak instability could lead
to some moderate to heavy rain in embedded convection. This
will take care of the recently dry conditions for those who have
missed out on the convection of the past few days. The current,
projected track of the low and best forcing beneath the coupled
jet structure would place the heaviest swath of QPF near the
lakeshore, where amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are possible, with
lesser amounts of a few tenths to up to 0.50 inch farther south.
This will be fine tuned with later forecasts.

Much cooler and drier conditions are expected in the wake of
the front Sunday night into Tuesday as the mid/upper trough
deepens across the central and eastern CONUS and surface high
pressure takes control. This will support highs mainly in the
70s and lows in the 50s. However, that broad mid/upper longwave
trough will keep the pattern active as additional shortwaves
rounding its base send reinforcing cold fronts across the
region. A weak cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday could
bring a few showers and thunderstorms, but the more interesting
shortwave and associated cold front looks to be Wednesday night
or Thursday, when stronger jet support induces a deepening
surface low. This could bring stronger thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall depending on the frontal timing, degree of shear, and
how much instability can advect northward. Temperatures mid to
late next week will be a bit variable due to the frontal
passages, but generally upper 70s to low 80s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Widespread VFR is expected through the TAF period as high
pressure builds into the region. High clouds will begin to move
in from the west late in the period as the next system moves
into the Great Lakes region for Sunday. Winds overnight will
become light, at around 5 knots out of the southwest. By
tomorrow, there may be some gusts up to 20 knots for the western
terminals, but generally winds will be around 10 knots out of
the west then shifting to be out of the southwest by late
tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
Non-VFR chances may return Tuesday afternoon and evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, becoming more likely late
Wednesday in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions will gradually improve this evening as west
winds shift towards the southwest and subside to less than 15
knots. Winds will shift towards the northwest behind a cold
front late Sunday into Monday with waves nearing 3 feet.
Although the Small Craft potential remains low for this time
frame, it is non-zero. A higher risk for more widespread
hazardous marine conditions will arrive by mid-week as a strong
low pressure system develops and moves east into the Great Lakes
region Wednesday into Thursday. Will continue to monitor trends
for this system, though there is potential for west to
southwest winds to exceed 30 knots at times.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...23
MARINE...Kahn