Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

833
FXUS61 KCLE 241843
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
243 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late
tonight through Friday night with a chance for a few strong storms
east of I-71 Thursday 1 - 8 PM.

2) Heat and humidity returns next week with heat indices possibly
exceeding 100 degrees, especially in Northwest Ohio.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region
tonight with residual convection moving in from the northwest late
tonight through Thursday morning. This will mainly be rain showers
with a few embedded storms.

Additional convection will develop Thursday afternoon, mainly east
of I-71. Sufficient instability and deep-layer shear will be present
for marginally organized convection during the afternoon with a few
strong to severe storms. Severity will likely depend on prevalence
of morning convection.

Another low moves up from the southwest, with an additional round of
showers and thunderstorms Friday through Saturday morning. Model
guidance has trended later with precipitation onset on Friday, and
there is a chance that most of Friday is dry. Precipitation is most
likely for southern counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
An upper-level ridge builds into the eastern CONUS, with heat
and humidity building into the local region next week. The
latest NBM has Tuesday and Wednesday as the hottest days of the
week with >50% probability of 90 degrees and heat indices > 100
degrees. There are very low probabilities of thunderstorms each
day (around 10- 30%), greater towards the east and best chance
is on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with primarily VFR to
persist through the TAF period. Rain showers will be moving east
into the area this evening and overnight. The heaviest rain may
impact TOL with brief IFR vsby drops and have introduced a tempo
group. Otherwise, rain showers should remain light, resulting in
mainly VFR vsbys. Thunder chances also remain low and thus, have
not included tsra or vcts at this time, though they may need to
be introduced in the next TAF package, particularly at sites
east of the I-77 corridor.

Winds are generally light and favoring a west to southwest
direction this afternoon, around 5 knots. A lake breeze has
developed and is slowly moving south this afternoon, impacting
CLE/ERI with north to northwest flow of 7 to 10 knots. Winds
will shift towards the south, then southwest tonight into
Thursday, 7 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, particularly east
of the I-77 corridor where a few stronger wind gusts are
possible. Non- VFR possible again in showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon and evening, mainly south of the I-90 corridor.

&&

.MARINE...
With the exception of some stronger wind gusts associated with
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, particularly across
the eastern basin of Lake Erie, generally quiet marine conditions
are expected through the weekend. Winds will shift towards the south
to southwest on Thursday, 10 to 15 knots, becoming north to
northeast behind a cold front on Friday into Saturday, 10 to 15
knots. Onshore, northeast flow will then continue through Sunday,
around 10 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn