Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

559
FXUS61 KCLE 131152
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
752 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast remains on track, overall, including periods of
unsettled weather through tomorrow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Below-average temperatures, overall, are expected through
Thursday night.

2.) Unsettled weather is expected today through Thursday.

3.) A warming trend is expected this Friday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Aloft, a longwave trough and embedded shortwave disturbances
affect our region through Thursday as the longwave trough axis
moves from the western Great Lakes early this morning to near
eastern Lake Ontario and the Delmarva Peninsula by sunset
Thursday evening. The attendant surface low should wobble
ESE`ward from northeastern Lower MI early this morning to near
Lake Champlain by sunset Thursday evening. This low track
should allow a surface cold front to sweep E`ward across our CWA
between about daybreak this morning and this early evening.
Behind the cold front, a surface ridge builds from the Upper
Midwest and vicinity through Thursday night, while the
mid/upper-level portions of this ridge should begin to build
from the west by Thursday night. Today`s daytime highs are
expected to reach the upper 50`s to mid 60`s as abundant cloud
cover associated with the low pressure system and the cold front
passage result in muted daytime heating. Low-level CAA behind
the cold front will contribute to lows reaching mainly the 40`s
around daybreak Thursday and Friday, respectively. However, latest
NWP model trends continue to suggest clearer sky and resulting
greater nocturnal cooling will contribute to lows reaching the
upper 30`s in portions of interior NE OH around daybreak Friday.
In between, daytime highs on Thursday should reach only the
upper 40`s to mid 50`s in NW PA and the 50`s to mid 60`s in
northern OH.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Periods of rain, steady to heavy at times, are expected to end
from west to east between about daybreak this morning and this
early evening given the expected progression of the above-mentioned
cold front and the eastward translation of the low pressure
system`s warm conveyor belt undergoing moist isentropic ascent
aloft. Occasional thunderstorms are possible through this early
evening as the aforementioned lifting mechanisms release
primarily weak CAPE, including elevated CAPE.

During tonight into early Thursday, lake-enhanced/effect rain is
expected to occur over and generally southeast of Lake Erie,
especially central and eastern portions of the lake, as a
primarily NW`erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist
air becomes established over/downwind of the ~12C lake, at
least weak lake-induced CAPE forms, and the seeder-feeder
process occurs at times amidst a sufficiently-cold/moist
low/mid-level atmospheric column and isentropic ascent ahead of
shortwave trough axes embedded in the aforementioned longwave
trough aloft. Between daybreak and nightfall on Thursday, lingering
lake-effect/enhanced rain showers should end from west to east and
give way to dry weather region-wide by Thursday night as lake-
induced CAPE wanes amidst low/mid-level dry air advection and a
lowering subsidence inversion accompanying the ridge that will build
from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
A warming trend is expected this Friday through Monday night as
our region becomes located within a net low-level WAA regime
along the western flank of the aforementioned ridge at the
surface and aloft. Moderating temperatures should include
daytime highs in the 60`s to lower 70`s on Friday followed by
daytime highs in the 80`s to near 90F on Monday. Periodic
showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially overnight
Friday night through Monday night, as a low-level return flow of
warm, moist, and at least weakly-unstable air originating over
the Gulf becomes established and multiple shortwave troughs
embedded in the primarily SW`erly flow aloft and attendant
surface trough axes traverse our region.

Slightly cooler and cloudier weather is expected Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week as the ridge continues to exit slowly
E`ward, a trough aloft approaches from the west, and a cold
front approaches slowly from the northwest before potentially
drifting SE`ward across our region Tuesday night through
Wednesday. The potential for periodic showers and thunderstorms
should increase along and ahead of the cold front as the low-
level return flow of warm, humid, and at least weakly-unstable
air from the Gulf persists in the warm sector and shortwave
disturbances embedded in mainly SW`erly flow aloft and attendant
surface trough axes continue to traverse our region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected the rest of this
morning through the afternoon, but another trough rotating
across Lake Erie will generate scattered showers this evening
into tonight, mainly affecting KCLE, KMFD, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI.
These showers will bring longer periods of MVFR/IFR. The showers
will gradually move out toward the end of the TAF cycle.

S to SW winds of 10-15 knots will occasionally gust to 20-25
knots this morning before turning WNW at 15-25 knots by late
morning through the afternoon behind a cold front. WNW winds
will become NW and decrease to 5-10 knots late this evening and
tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with lingering rain and low ceilings
through Thursday. Non-VFR may return in isolated to scattered
rain showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous conditions will be found across Lake Erie through
Thursday as an unseasonably deep mid/upper trough swings across
the Great Lakes region. SW winds of 15-25 knots this morning
will turn WNW at 15-25 knots this afternoon. After a lull
tonight with NW winds dropping to 10-15 knots, NW winds will
increase to 15-25 knots again Thursday morning before decreasing
in the afternoon. This will support 3 to 5 foot waves today and
again early Thursday, with the highest waves in the central and
eastern basins.

Quieter conditions are then expected Thursday night through the
weekend, with light and variable winds Thursday night becoming S
at 5-15 knots Friday and SW at 10-15 knots by Saturday. Winds
will then turn E to SE and decrease to 5-10 knots Saturday night
and Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for LEZ142>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas