Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

175
FXUS61 KCLE 131124
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
724 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures and heat indices on Tuesday and Wednesday have
trended a bit higher with this forecast package. Heat Advisories
may need to be considered for parts of Northwest Ohio.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Hot conditions are expected this week. Heat indices will peak
in the mid 90s to low 100s Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in
Major HeatRisk conditions (level 3 of 4).

2) Showers and thunderstorms return Friday night and continue at
times through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A closed off mid-level high with anomalous 500mb heights up to
600 dam is currently centered over the upper Midwest. This high
will drift southeastward as it flattens out and dissipates with
time through the week.

Relative to our forecast area, this will contribute to
increasing low-level heat and humidity, though the hottest
conditions will be displaced to our northwest. Temperatures will
be in the upper 80s to around 90 today, but daytime heating
resulting in the mixing of dry air aloft will yield lower dew
points and reduced heat indices (to near the actual air
temperature).

Tuesday and Wednesday is when the worst heat and humidity are
expected with widespread temperatures in the 90s. Dew points in
the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday and possibly 70 on Wednesday
will contribute to heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s and
Major HeatRisk conditions (level 3 of 4) both days. A Heat
Advisory may need to be considered for Toledo and adjacent areas
on Tuesday, and then a broader region across portions of the
area west of I-77 for Wednesday. An extreme heat watch was
considered for the Toledo area Tuesday but there are risks of
lower humidity (due to mixing of dry air aloft) and the 00Z
HREF/REFS only have a 10-20% chance of reaching or exceeding
105.

A cold front will swing through the area Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night. Relative to the hot conditions on Tuesday and
Wednesday, temperatures will cool down to highs in the upper
80s to low 90s, though downwind of Lake Erie in far Northeast
Ohio (Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula area) and in Northwest
Pennsylvania, more reasonable temperatures are expected in the
low to mid 80s, due to west to northwest flow off Lake Erie.
Relief will mainly come in the form of much lower humidity as
dew points potentially drop to below 60 on Thursday before
building back up into the low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The upper level high/ridge retreats back westward this weekend,
while an upper-level trough further entrenches itself over the
northeast CONUS. We`re caught in between these two synoptic-
scale features, with a theta-e gradient expected across the
upper Midwest, Great Lakes region, towards the mid-Atlantic.
Overlap of cooler temperatures aloft from the trough towards the
northeast and surface heat and humidity from the ridge to the
west and southwest will contribute to a stormy pattern along
this gradient this weekend. Locally, the latest model guidance
is pointing to Friday night through Saturday evening being the
most likely chance for storms; however, a weakly forced setup
like this yields low predictability. Even so, wherever storms
occur, they will likely present some amount of severe weather
risk, so this weekend is worth keeping an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions are prevalent across the region as only high level
clouds move through. Probability is low, but a few pop up showers
are possible this afternoon at KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG. If over
station, this could bring visibility down to IFR. Otherwise,
expected VFR conditions throughout the TAF period.

Winds will be light and variable across much of the region this
morning, then shift to be predominantly out of the north to
northeast at 5-10 knots over the next few hours. After 00Z,
winds will shift around to be out of the south-southwest and
light at less than 5 knots.

Outlook...VFR favored through Thursday. Non-VFR chances increase
starting late Friday with showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions are expected over the next several days as
high pressure builds into the region. Winds will be light at around
5 knots out of the north this morning before shifting to south-
southwest by at 5-10 knots this afternoon. Throughout the day
Tuesday, winds will increase to around 10-15 knots out of the
southwest and persist through Wednesday morning. Waves will build to
1-3 feet, primarily in the central and eastern open waters during
that time. A cold front will sweep across the lake on Wednesday and
winds will shift to be out of the north and though should remain
less than 10 knots. With the northerly winds, waves could build to
around 2 feet in the near shore zones behind the cold front to end
the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23