Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

373
FXUS61 KCLE 301128
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
728 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added some timing resolution to POPs on Tuesday, showing a period of
relatively drier weather during the day before convection moves in
from the northwest late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Confidence in us
surging well into the warm sector on Thursday is increasing,
with warmer temperatures and a window of drier weather that day.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hit and miss shower and thunder chances at times through early
Tuesday, followed by greater potential for showers and thunderstorms
late Tuesday into early Wednesday with a cold front. Some storms late
Tuesday into Tuesday night may be severe.

2) The next system in our active pattern is expected Thursday and
Friday, with returning shower and storm chances and another brief
surge of warmer and more humid conditions.

3) Unsettled weather continues this weekend as low pressure lifts
through the Great Lakes, bringing more fronts across the local area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1:

Most of the day Monday will be dry but with a fair amount of cloud
cover driven by ongoing low-level warm air/moisture advection. Highs
will push well into the 60s with some western sites likely touching
70. There will be enough of a low-level jet to yield modestly gusty
surface winds as mixing deepens this afternoon and early evening,
especially along/west of I-71 where peak gusts may reach 30 MPH.

A flat/low-amplitude shortwave will zip across the central Great
Lakes this evening and tonight as elevated instability advects in
aloft. The combination of modest lift and increased moisture along
and ahead of the shortwave to go along with developing elevated
instability will lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm
chances beginning late afternoon/early evening, with activity likely
peaking this evening and tonight. Activity should diminish and/or
shift farther northeast late tonight into Tuesday morning as a capped
warm sector becomes established across the area. The greatest rain
potential late today and tonight will stretch from the Toledo area
east-southeast across Lake Erie into Northeast OH and Northwest PA,
with relatively lower POPs and QPF amounts farther south and
southwest. Some hi-res models suggest localized corridors of over
1.50" of rain may occur with more organized convection through early
Tuesday across some of our northern and northeastern counties, though
that will largely be the exception with area average QPF more likely
to land in the 0.40-1.00" range across extreme Northeast OH and
Northwest PA in that timeframe, diminishing farther southwest. Given
this, not expecting notable flooding concerns through Tuesday
morning. As a decent elevated mixed layer (EML) works in overnight
tonight, bringing steeper mid-level lapse rates amid moderate deep-
layer shear, do not want to rule out a bit of hail with any elevated
convection. However, the overall severe weather risk will be
minimal tonight. Lows tonight will be mild, ranging from the mid-
upper 50s east to lower 60s west.

Once lingering showers/storms exit northeast Tuesday morning, most
of the day will be dry, breezy, and quite warm. Capping and a lack
of forcing in the open warm sector should lead to mainly dry weather
until convection potential along the approaching cold front works in
from the northwest late Tuesday or Tuesday evening. Highs on Tuesday
will push well into the mid-upper 70s for most, with a few sites
quite possibly touching 80 in we see enough sunshine and a long
enough window of rain-free conditions. Wind gusts of 30-40 MPH are
likely on Tuesday in a warm/mixed airmass beneath a moderate low-
level jet, with a few gusts to 45 MPH possible west of the I-71
corridor in the afternoon and early evening.

Shower and storm potential increases from the northwest late Tuesday
into Tuesday night as large-scale forcing increases and a cold front
sags in. There is some disagreement over how quickly the cold front
and convective potential with it sinks into our area, with some
guidance suggesting this happens as early as late Tuesday afternoon
across Northwest OH while a majority of guidance suggests Tuesday
evening/night is more likely. Through the evening hours, a
combination of increasing forcing, moderate to strong low-mid level
flow and weakly capped or uncapped instability can support organized
surface-based convection along or just ahead of the front.
Thereafter, the low-levels appear to stabilize enough to minimize
severe potential overnight Tuesday night. If surface-based convection
is realized, 40-50kt of effective deep-layer shear, including strong
0-3km shear of over 40kt, along with weak to moderate instability (up
to 1500 J/KG of MLCAPE) and steep mid-level lapse rates (up to
7.5C/km) can support all modes of severe weather, with damaging winds
the most likely hazard followed by large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes. However, uncertainty remains over how quickly the
front can push in before the environment becomes less supportive of
severe weather. Overall, the greatest potential for severe weather
is in the Toledo area with gradually diminishing potential farther
southeast. The new SPC Day 2 Outlook has a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
across the northern third of our area, diminishing to a Marginal Risk
(level 1/5) farther south. Don`t feel this is unreasonable, though
the confidence in the Slight Risk is higher farther northwest with a
weakening trend likely southeast across our forecast area.

Rain and some elevated convection are expected to spread south-
southeast across the rest of the area later Tuesday night into
Wednesday along and behind the frontal passage. Area average rain
amounts of 0.60-1.20" are forecast across the northern half of our
area late Tuesday into Wednesday, diminishing to the south. Locally
up to 2.00" may occur with especially organized or training
convection. This round of rain will likely cause area
streams/creeks/rivers to rise more sharply, with a few more prone
points possibly reaching minor flood...though overall, widespread
flooding is not expected.

A brief period of drier weather is possible behind the front later
Wednesday morning and afternoon ahead of the next system. A notable
airmass change is likely behind the front, with forecast highs on
Wednesday ranging from the 40s near Lake Erie to perhaps the lower
60s well inland. There is some uncertainty regarding if our southern
counties are still rather mild Wednesday morning, though it should be
noticeably cooler than Tuesday overall at the end of the day.

KEY MESSAGE #2:

The next trough starts digging into the Plains quickly Wednesday and
Wednesday night, causing heights to rise locally and sending our
prior cold front back northeast as a warm front late Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Another round of showers and some elevated
convection will occur along and ahead of the warm front late
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

The trough to our west takes on a negative tilt and lifts northeast
into the upper Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night, pulling a
deepening low pressure across the central Great Lakes. Thursday is
looking more likely to be a drier and very warm day as we get well
into the warm sector. Some POPs linger on Thursday, especially across
Lake Erie and Northeast OH/Northwest PA early in the day, and then
increasing from the west-northwest ahead of the approaching cold
front late in the day. However, there should be some dry breaks with
highs surging well into the 70s...with lower 80s possible if we end
up seeing enough dry time and sunshine.

Rain potential should increase from the west-northwest late Thursday
and Thursday night as the low passes to our north and drags the cold
front into the local area. This cold front has trended slower in
recent runs of guidance, leading to forecast highs for Friday
trending a bit warmer as POPs also trend higher. POPs will need to
remain fairly high on Friday until the front can clear.

Overall, this system isn`t particularly alarming from a severe
weather or heavy rain/flooding perspective. However, there may be
enough rain area-wide to keep rivers a bit elevated.

KEY MESSAGE #3:

Any period of drier weather behind the Thursday-Friday system won`t
last too long, as models agree on a fairly impressive trough ejecting
into the Plains Friday night and Saturday and shifting into the upper
Great Lakes on Sunday. This will drive yet another low pressure
towards the upper Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday. This low looks to
lift our front back north as a warm front Friday night into Saturday,
followed by another cold frontal passage Saturday night or Sunday.
Rain amounts and severe potential will depend on the exact track and
strength of the low, along with the timing of the cold front. Given
that, it`s too early to speculate on potential hazards with the
weekend system. However, it`s safe to say our unsettled/active
pattern from this week will continue through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A mid-level, VFR cloud deck continues across the region this
morning, although the ceiling flavor is trending more broken
than overcast, especially near Lake Erie. Winds will increase
over the next hour or two, ending the LLWS threat this morning.
With increasing moisture into the region, ceilings should fall a
bit this afternoon to 3-5 kft for most of the terminals. Some
rain will enter from the northwest, moving along the warm front.
The rain will impact the northeast terminals the most with some
MVFR ceilings and visibility. There is a bit more confidence in
some TS into KERI tonight and have introduced a brief VCTS
period. Rain should exit after midnight but MVFR ceilings will
continue to spread south through the terminals. A strong low
level jet will return tonight and allow for LLWS conditions to
also return for most terminals. During the daytime on Tuesday,
conditions should trend back to VFR across the area and mixing
should end the LLWS threat but wind gusts at the terminals may
end up in the 25-35 kt range.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Additional periods of non-VFR conditions
possible in rain on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore flow will be favored through Tuesday evening with a
warm front crossing the lake and southwest return flow surging
across the region. Winds may be a bit more muted during the
daytime hours today as the front lifts over the lake. Tonight,
expecting winds in the 15 to 20 kt range as a low level jet
enters the region, along with some shower and storm activity.
Tuesday should be an efficient mixing day and winds should at
least stay in the 15 to 20 kt range but could even accelerate
further to 25 kts. A small craft advisory remains possible
tonight into Tuesday with the enhanced southwest flow.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front will cross the
lake and northwest flow will return to the basin. Winds with the
cold advection do not appear all that strong on Wednesday and
any increased wave activity may be brief late Tuesday night.
This cold front will hover over the area on Wednesday and lift
north on Thursday. This will allow for easterly flow on
Wednesday night and offshore southerly flow to return on
Thursday. The Thursday warm sector appears efficient again and
15 to 20 kts of offshore flow seems likely at this time. A cold
front will move through on Friday and winds will shift to the
northwest and weaken.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic