Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

205
FXUS61 KCLE 180803
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
303 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong cold front tracks through the lower Great Lakes tonight
bringing gusty winds and sharp temperature drops. Another cold
front comes through Saturday night. Mild next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Well advertised, fast tracking upper level low and cold front will
cut through the lower Great Lakes during the near term period. Quite
deep surface low around 985mb and trailing high pressure provides a
tight pressure gradient both ahead of and behind the cold front and
resultant strong winds across the CWA. For today, there is
definitely strong low level off-surface flows ahead of the cold
front, with a low level jet peaking around 75kts this afternoon.
However, vertical profiles indicate the thermal structure of the
lowest levels of the troposphere are isothermal to inversion
oriented, so mixing is not going to be efficient in getting some of
the stronger low level winds to transfer to the surface. Therefore,
believe that the main source of wind will be the pressure gradient
without much in the way of low level momentum transfer, and will
keep gusts just below advisory criteria today except for the
northern portion of Erie County PA where downsloping will enhance
the winds to 40kts or greater through this evening. Cold front then
approaches and POPs ramp up into the evening and overnight. Should
get a solid line of showers with the cold front and an isolated
rumble of thunder, while not expected, is not impossible in this
scenario. Drastic wind shift and cold air advection expected in its
wake, but now with downgliding winds, gusts will likely become more
pronounced, and will be closer to flirting with advisory criteria.
Better mixing and momentum transfer potential, but the low and mid
level winds will have eased, and the upper level low energy will be
moving away from the CWA. So this lends once again to the pressure
gradient likely being the biggest contributor to the winds. That
said, boundary layer will be unstable Friday afternoon, and expect
peak gusts in the wake of this front to be during this time,
especially or the eastern half of the CWA. With wind gusts marginal
for advisory, will let the day shift take another look at the need
for the headline. Temperatures will be falling fast behind the cold
front, largely leading to a nondiurnal during the day with max
temperatures Friday morning. Temperatures falling through the 20s
and high winds will bring single digit wind chills in a very raw day
where flash freezing is possible, especially for the western half of
the CWA where temperatures drop below freezing before dawn. Rain
will change to snow briefly in the last of the precipitation and the
exit of the cold front with only a crust of snow/ice expected. Short
lived lake effect is possible in a largely west to east band Friday
afternoon through late Friday evening, with 1-4 inches possible in
far NE OH and NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Despite the drastic airmass/sensible weather changes from the near
term, the synoptic scale pattern will be progressive/fast-moving,
and low level warm advection will already begin occurring Friday
night and then into Saturday. With precipitation ending Friday
night, expecting Saturday temperatures to rebound back above
freezing with the next low POP/QPF cold front coming through late
Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures back on a yo-yo, and
largely below freezing heading through Sunday as the forecast goes
dry again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Arctic air will remain locked north of the CWA for the long term
period and a mid week frontal boundary warrants low POPs for mid
week. The pattern overall becomes quieter nearing the end of the
month in stark contrast to the first half of December. On the
longwave scale, broad scale upper level ridging develops over south
Texas extending northward towards the Canadian border, supporting an
overall milder pattern for much of the country.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this evening with deterioration to
non-VFR likely towards the end of the TAF period. A line of
heavy rain associated with a cold front will move west to east
across the area towards the end of the TAF period late Thursday
evening, bringing a brief period of gusty winds and IFR vsbys.

Otherwise, the main concern for the TAF period will be the
potential for widespread LLWS beginning late tonight and
persisting through late Thursday morning and perhaps even into
the afternoon hours. A strong south to southwest low-level jet
of 40 to 50 knots will overspread the region, with surface
winds generally favoring a south to even southeast direction at
times, 10 to 15 knots. As the trough approaches by late
Thursday afternoon, surface winds will increase to 20 to 22
knots, and shift more towards the south, decreasing the LLWS
threat. South winds will occasionally gust around 35 knots
across the TAF sites Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in snow showers on Friday. West winds
may also gust in the 30 to 35 knot range on Friday. Mainly VFR
expected for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory for the following nearshore U.S. waters:
- From 4 AM today to 10 PM EST Friday for Maumee Bay to The Islands
- From 4 AM today to 1 AM Friday for The Islands to Geneva-on-the-
Lake
- From 7 AM today to 7 AM Friday from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Ripley

Gale Warning for U.S. waters:
- From 1 AM Friday to 10 PM Friday for The Islands to Geneva-on-the-
Lake
- From 7 AM Friday to 12 AM Saturday from Geneva-on-the-Lake to
Buffalo

Low Water Advisory for U.S. waters:
- From 4 AM Friday to 4 PM Friday west of Vermilion

Note: The latest available ice analysis indicates most of the
western basin of Lake Erie, including Sandusky Bay, is ice-covered.
The following wave height forecast values are for ice-free waters.
Milder weather today, along with relatively-strong winds most of
today into Friday should cause the ice to decay.

During the predawn hours of today, a warm front sweeps N`ward across
Lake Erie and causes SSE`erly winds around 10 to 15 knots to veer to
SSW`erly and increase to 15 to 25 knots as a deepening low moves
E`ward in vicinity of the MN/ON border. Waves build gradually to 3
to 6 feet. Later this morning through early evening, a ridge
continues to exit E`ward from Lake Erie and interacts with the
potent low, which should wobble E`ward to Lake Superior. This will
cause S`erly to SSW`erly winds to freshen to 20 to 30 knots over
Lake Erie. Waves build to as large as 4 to 9 feet.

Tonight, the potent low should wobble NE`ward from Lake Superior to
west-central QC, deepen further, and allow a strong cold front to
sweep E`ward across Lake Erie. Accordingly, S`erly to SW`erly winds
around 20 to 30 knots veer to W`erly and increase to 25 to nearly 40
knots behind the cold front. Waves should build to as large as 7 to
14 feet. In the wake of the front, a trough should linger over Lake
Erie on Friday as a ridge attempts to build from the Upper Midwest.
WNW`erly to WSW`erly winds around 25 to 35 knots and waves as large
as 7 to 15 feet are forecast. Note: a seiche is expected on Friday
and has prompted the Low Water Advisory for the western basin.

During Friday night, the ridge axis should traverse Lake Erie from
west to east. On the backside of the ridge, a warm front should
sweep N`ward across Lake Erie overnight. Accordingly, W`erly winds
initially around 20 to 35 knots should back to SW`erly to S`erly and
ease slightly to around 15 to 25 knots by daybreak Saturday.
Accordingly, waves should subside slowly to 6 feet or less. On
Saturday, the ridge should continue to exit E`ward and interact with
a deepening low that should wobble E`ward in vicinity of the MN/ON
border and Lake Superior. Accordingly, S`erly to SW`erly winds
should freshen to around 20 to 30 knots. Waves as large as 4 to 9
feet are expected.

The aforementioned low moves from near Lake Superior to near
southwestern QC Saturday night and allows a cold front to sweep
E`ward across Lake Erie. The front`s passage will cause SW`erly
winds around 20 to 30 knots to veer to W`erly. Waves as large as 4
to 9 feet should persist. On Sunday through Sunday night, a ridge
should affect Lake Erie as the ridge axis moves from the Upper
Midwest to near central Lake Erie and vicinity. Accordingly, W`erly
to NW`erly winds around 15 to 30 knots on Sunday should back toward
W`erly to SW`erly and ease to around 5 to 15 knots Sunday night.
Waves as large as 4 to 9 feet on Sunday should subside gradually to
3 feet or less by daybreak Monday. On Monday, the ridge should exit
slowly E`ward from the Lake Erie region and cause winds around 10 to
nearly 20 knots to back gradually to SW`erly to SSE`erly. Waves
should be mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 footers are
possible in open U.S. waters.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday for
     PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for LEZ142-143.
     Low Water Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ144>147.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for LEZ144>147-
     164>167.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Friday
     for LEZ148-149.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Friday to midnight EST Friday night for
     LEZ148-149-168-169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka