Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

011
FXUS61 KCLE 221129
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
729 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast model guidance has trended a little slower and wetter
for the weather system that will move across the area later
today through Saturday night. Temperatures are expected to warm
up and feel more like summer later next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A slow low pressure system will track from the Lower Ohio
Valley into the eastern Great Lakes later today through
Saturday night bringing widespread moderate to locally heavy
rainfall for the holiday weekend. There may a potential for
localized minor flooding impacts to low lying areas and
locations with poor drainage.

2) By early to middle of next week, a warmer summer-like
weather pattern will develop over the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Our weather will start out with fair conditions and dry this
Friday morning, but a weather system will quickly approach from
the southern U.S. bringing a soggy start to our Memorial Day
Weekend. The low pressure system that will impact our weekend
weather is currently near the Mid-Mississippi Valley this
morning. Ahead of that system, clouds will increase and thicken
throughout today. Our afternoon temperatures will climb into
the middle and upper 60s with some locations possibly reaching
70 degrees.

The wet storm system will track northeastward into the Ohio
Valley later today and tonight. The surface low will track
towards northwest Ohio and western Lake Erie by Saturday
afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunder will develop
south of our area later today and advance northward into
northern Ohio late this afternoon into the evening. Widespread
areas of showers and isolated thunder will spread across the
entire area overnight into Saturday morning.

This system will have alot of tropical moisture to work with.
It is bringing some very rich moisture content with PW values
approaching 1.6" tonight into Saturday, which is near the max
value for climatology at the end of May standards. Storm total
rainfall amounts will average from 1.0-1.5 inches. Some
locations closer to the Highway 30 corridor and southward into
central Ohio and northeastern Ohio may end of with up to 2
inches of rainfall this weekend. There are some concerns for a
localized flooding threat for the usual prone spots that are
low lying and have poor drainage. The localized flood threat
will be something we will monitor and nowcast as this rain event
unfolds.

There are some indications from the high-res models that as the
surface low lifts northeastward across Lake Erie late Saturday
afternoon/evening, some scattered convection may try to develop
over eastern Ohio. But this broken line of convection will be
just general thunder and we are not expecting anything organized
or strong at this time. Saturday`s high temperatures will have a
wider range from west to east. Western areas may reach up into
the lower 70s Saturday afternoon, but it will be cooler eastward
in the upper 50s to lower 60s for far NEOH and NWPA where the
steadier rain holds on longer through the day.

Another weak surface trough of low pressure will swing from west
to east across the area Sunday into early Monday with additional
chances for scattered showers and isolated thunder. Temperatures
will start to climb upward Sunday and Monday with highs in the
middle to upper 70s. Some parts of the area will start to see
drier weather try to move in from north to south during the day
Monday or later Monday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The overall weather pattern shifts in a big way by early to
middle of next week which favors summer-like temperatures. The
model guidance for next week has been showing fairly good
agreement on a psuedo Omega Block weather pattern developing
over the north central CONUS, eventually shifting slowly
eastward over the Great Lakes region by next weekend. This
pattern will favor warmer weather with highs into the 80s and
overnight lows in the 60s. It will also favor lower rain
chances but not completely zero. It will finally start feeling
like Summer and that very warm weather may last for multiple
days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
TAFs are currently VFR with some high and mid level clouds across
the region. Low pressure will begin to move north into the region
tomorrow morning and ceilings of 3-6kft will develop around 13-
16Z. There will be pockets of MVFR ceilings developing mid day,
primarily in the southern TAF sites of KFDY, KMFD, KCAK, and
KYNG. Through the day MVFR ceilings will spread northward, then
drop down to IFR with the incoming rain showers. Timing of the
rain continues to trend slower with onset for the southern TAF
sites 21-23Z and 01-02Z for northern ones. Rain showers are
anticipated through the end of the TAF period at this point with
prolonged MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility. Only KCLE at this
point has rain ending around 15Z on Saturday, though ceilings
will still be non-VFR.

Winds will be primarily out of the east-northeast at 8-15 knots
through the majority of the TAF period as the surface low will
have yet to move this far north. There will be a period of gusty
winds of 20-25 knots tomorrow during the day before easing a
bit in the evening. Winds will also begin to shift to be out of
the southeast late tonight with the approaching low.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected at times Friday evening through
late Saturday evening. Non-VFR possible late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Unsettled marine conditions will continue through late Saturday
night with a Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statements
currently in effect. Winds will be primarily out of the east to
northeast across the lake through late Saturday night ahead of the a
surface low pressure system. In the central and western basins,
winds will be between 20-25 knots and in the eastern basin be around
15-20 knots. By late Friday night, winds will shift to be more
southeasterly and be 15-25 knots across the lake. During this time,
waves will build to be around 5-8 feet across the central and
eastern basins.

By Saturday evening, low pressure will track across the region and
shift to be out of the south, then out of the west to southwest by
Sunday morning. Winds will begin to diminish from west to east
throughout the day Saturday with the eastern basin hanging on to
elevated with of around 20 knots into late Saturday night. A
headline extension may be needed if winds continue trend higher
through Saturday evening. By Sunday, winds and waves will have
diminished and are expected to be light and variable through mid
week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for OHZ003-
     007-009-010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23