Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

481
FXUS61 KCLE 242326
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
726 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased pops for this afternoon and tonight. Also adjusted high
temperatures down near Lake Erie on Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon will give way to
widespread showers overnight. A few of the stronger thunderstorms in
NW Ohio this afternoon could produce wind gusts to 50 or 60 mph.

2) Cooler air arrives behind a cold front for the weekend. Locations
closer to Lake Erie will be below normal.

3) The next chance of precipitation will accompany a front Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Scattered thunderstorms developed this afternoon in Northwest
Ohio and have continued northeast towards Sandusky and Central
Lake Erie. This area is focused along an area of low level
theta-e advection and is not expected to be severe, with brief
heavy rain and lightning the main concerns. We will be
monitoring the evolution of thunderstorms moving out of Indiana
this evening for slightly more organized convective threat. Mid-
level shortwave energy is expected to move from northern
Illinois towards Central Lower Michigan and provide some
increase in lift while a cold front wraps in from the west this
evening. Instability is expected to be marginal with 500 J/kg of
CAPE. While shear will be on the uptick in NW Ohio, effective
shear will remain at 25 knots or less and the severe weather
threat is expected to remain isolated with a few wind gusts of
50-60 knots possible in NW Ohio. The main time frame for any
stronger thunderstorms will be in the 4-8 PM time frame.

Beyond that, a swath of rain is expected to move across the area
overnight with generally a quarter to a half inch of rain and a
chance of thunderstorms. Rain will tend to taper off from west to
east between about 4 AM in the west to 11 AM in NW Pennsylvania.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High temperatures for Saturday will occur early in the morning for
some locations with temperatures falling into the 50s behind the
front. Temperatures at 850mb will tend to be about 7 C cooler
than today. Northern areas will be influenced by breezy flow off
Lake Erie and remain in the 50s through the day with mostly
cloudy skies. Temperatures for inland areas will do a little
better with some locations climbing back into the 60s in the
afternoon. Skies will tend to clear for Sunday with seasonable
temperatures.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

A warm front lifts back north on Monday as the upper level ridge
axis shifts towards New England. A trough will lift out of the Rocky
Mountains towards the Upper Midwest Monday night into Tuesday.
Strong low pressure will track northeast across Lake Superior with
showers and a chance of thunderstorms moving east across the area
Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Another quarter to
a half inch of rain is expected with this system but the late
night/morning timing will be less favorable for strong
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Low pressure centered over southeast Michigan will move east-
southeast across the area late tonight, bringing a cold front
across the area. Several hours of rain showers are expected with
and behind the cold front, with a slight chance for
thunderstorms before the cold front swings through (mainly west
of I-77). Ceilings quickly deteriorate behind the cold front,
with areawide IFR expected and pockets of LIFR especially closer
to Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
Conditions improve to mostly MVFR during the day Saturday, with
pockets of IFR persisting in some areas. Light winds tonight
become 10-14 knots out of the north during the day Saturday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms late
Monday night into Tuesday. Isolated rain showers may persist
into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
East to northeast winds have increased to 10 to 15 knots with gusts
up to 25 knots this afternoon. Also, Walnut Creek waves have
increased up to 4 feet this afternoon. A cold front will push east
this evening into the overnight hour, shifting winds northerly with
speeds of 5-10 knots. An associated surface inverted trough will
park over western Pennsylvania and create a relatively tight
pressure gradient on Saturday. As a result, northerly winds will
increase across the central and eastern basin Saturday and Saturday
night with winds between 15 to 20 knots and waves approaching 5
feet. We will monitor and may need a Small Craft Advisory Saturday
night. Winds are expected to subside on Sunday. A strong low
pressure system that moves through the western Great Lakes region
for the start of next week. Winds look to increase to 15-20 knots
for a period of time late Monday into Tuesday, which may need a
Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...FZ