Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

967
FXUS61 KCLE 160821
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
421 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Timing of rain has slowed by a couple hours this morning. Trended
high temperatures down slightly today and warmer on Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected today with a
lesser chance on Sunday.

2) Temperatures warm through the weekend, peaking with summer-like
conditions on Monday and Tuesday. A few locations may approach
record values.

3) Potential for showers and thunderstorms return late Tuesday into
Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1:
Shortwave energy will lift northeast across the
area today with moisture advection focused around the ridge up the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Early this morning we are watching
convection ongoing across Lake Michigan that will continue to track
to the northeast. In addition, scattered showers are starting to
spread northeast into the lower Ohio Valley where low level jet
energy is focused. While the airmass overhead is dry this morning,
significant theta-e advection up through 700mb is expected to spread
east across the local area by early afternoon. Moistening of the
column will result in an expansion of showers, although latest model
trends from the 06Z HRRR suggest it may be a couple hours slower
than previously thought. Up to 500 J/kg of MU CAPE does spread
overhead this morning and could see a few elevated thunderstorms
through early afternoon. After that, timing of showers and
thunderstorms becomes a little more difficult and will be impacted
by the first round and ability to recover. The general thought is
for some modest instability to develop in NW Ohio and see scattered
thunderstorms develop as stronger shortwave energy passes to the
north. Development to the east is expected to continue through the
afternoon as the area is caught in a broad area of convergence
between energy moving around the ridge and the trough passing across
the Upper Great Lakes. Most of the area(excluding NE Ohio and NW
Pennsylvania) has been included in a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon. While not the most impressive set-up,
0-6km shear of 25-30 knots could be sufficient for a low end wind
threat with a few gusts of 50-60 mph possible later this afternoon.

The moisture axis will remain overhead on Sunday morning and then
lift north as a warm front through the afternoon. Weak convergence
along this axis could support additional scattered thunderstorms
across mainly the northern half of the area on Sunday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE #2:
The flow aloft amplifies over the weekend with a ridge with
500mb height of 585 dm expanding north across Lake Erie. The
warm front will be located well north of the area on Monday with
850mb temperatures of 16-18C overhead. While Sunday will be
warm with temperatures in the mid 80s, Monday and Tuesday will
be hot as highs reach the upper 80s and possibly 90 degrees.
Temperatures through the first half of May have averaged 6-8
degrees below normal so this first blast of summer heat will
feel quite warm. Temperatures will even approach record values
at some locations on Monday and Tuesday (see the climate section
below). Monday is expected to be dry and mostly sunny aside
from a very low chance pop in NW Ohio. Clouds and chances for
thunderstorms return on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE #3:
Low pressure will track through the Upper Great Lakes on
Tuesday. Most of the day will be dry but a prefrontal trough
associated with this feature could kick off showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon. Timing will be impacted by
energy lifting out of the Rocky Mountain trough across the Great
Lakes region. Potential for showers and thunderstorms continues
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper level ridge breaks
down with an eventual cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Highs
on Wednesday are already forecast to be 10-12 degrees cooler on
Wednesday but they may need to trend down based on timing of the
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR early this morning. A warm front will lift east-northeast
across the area this morning/early afternoon. There will likely
be scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded storms with
the warm front. While the potential for thunder with this first
round is somewhat ambiguous due to marginal instability,
confidence in at least some showers is fairly high within a few
hour window at all terminals and is reflected in the TAFs.
Confidence in what happens between mid-afternoon and evening
behind the warm front is lower. A disturbance aloft may be
enough to spark a second round of showers and storms, but
confidence in enough warmth and instability building that
quickly behind the initial round of precipitation is lower.
Potential for afternoon showers/storms is higher farther south
and lower to the north. Mainly handled the afternoon activity
with PROB30 groups due to lower confidence. Confidence in drier
weather returning increases into tonight. Some MVFR ceilings
will likely be around at times this afternoon into tonight as
low-level moisture increases.

Mainly light south winds in the 5-10kt range early this morning
will shift more southwest today, increasing to 10-18kt with
gusts 20-25kt during the midday and afternoon hours. Winds
become lighter and lose their gusts this evening and tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon and evening, though chances are lower. Non-VFR likely
at times in showers/thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds in the 10-20kt range are expected over
the lake today. Winds may be a bit gusty at times in the
nearshore late this morning and this afternoon...current
impression is any gustier winds will be too short-lived for a
Small Craft Advisory, though trends will be monitored. Either
way, waves up to 2 feet in the nearshore waters and 2 to 4 feet
in the open waters through early this evening. Winds and waves
diminish tonight into early Sunday, with winds turning more
easterly at under 15kt on Sunday. Winds turn back to a more
south to southwest direction Monday and Tuesday. Winds will
generally be 10-20kt early this week over the lake, but will
need to watch for winds to briefly reach 20kt sustained with
higher gusts Monday and Tuesday afternoons, particularly in the
western nearshore waters. Waves will generally be 2 to 4 feet in
the open waters and up to 2 feet in the nearshore early in the
week. Can not rule out some eventual consideration for a Small
Craft Advisory Monday or Tuesday afternoons in the stronger
south-southwest winds, especially west of Cleveland.
Thunderstorm potential increases Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will approach record
values. The following are the records for May 18 and 19 at local
climate sites.

Date    Toledo    Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
05-18   95(1962)  92(1962)   91(1962)    92(1962)   92(1962)    89(1889)
05-19   92(1996)  88(1964)   88(1998)    91(1911)   89(1934)    90(1996)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan