Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

396
FXUS61 KCLE 071251
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
751 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extended chance to slight chance PoPs through this morning to
account for lingering lake-enhanced precipitation potential.
Confidence in stronger southerly winds late Thursday into Friday
is increasing so increased wind gusts across the area,
especially in NW PA where winds will be enhanced due to
downsloping off of higher terrain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake-enhanced rain/snow showers and fog/mist/drizzle across
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this morning will
give way to a period of dry weather through much of Thursday.

2) First low pressure system will bring rain, gusty winds, and
unseasonably warm temperatures to the area Thursday into
Friday.

3) Second low pressure system will deliver additional rain and
breezy winds to the region over the weekend with colder
temperatures and lake effect snow showers likely in its wake on
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Persistent upper troughing will produce additional light lake-
enhanced precipitation across far NE OH and NW PA through early
this morning with precipitation dwindling this morning as a
ridge takes control. Temps have cooled enough across portions
of NE OH/NW PA for some wet snow and a rain/snow mix, but any
snow accumulations should generally be around an inch or less
and be confined to the higher terrain of Erie County, PA.
Elsewhere, saturated air under a low level inversion will result
in patchy to areas of fog/mist/drizzle through this morning.
Conditions should start to improve this afternoon, although
clouds may struggle to clear until better ridging builds in this
evening. Once lake-enhanced showers/drizzle end, dry weather is
anticipated through Thursday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Low pressure will lift northeast out of the central Plains and
into the Upper Midwest Thursday into Friday, lifting a warm
front across the local area Thursday night into early Friday.
Isentropic ascent ahead of the warm front will usher increasing
rain chances into the local area starting as early as late
Thursday afternoon, although most locations will probably
remain dry until later Thursday evening. The low`s associated
cold front will move into the area at some point Friday
afternoon/evening which should allow PoPs to briefly decrease
Friday evening, although the air mass won`t change much since
the next system will follow closely behind.

Gusty southerly winds are likely ahead of and just behind the
warm front with widespread gusts to 30 to 40 mph anticipated
overnight Thursday and early Friday morning. Locations that
typically experience downsloping during southerly winds
(primarily the lakeshore of NE OH/NW PA and especially northern
Erie County, PA) may experience a brief period of advisory-level
gusts between about Midnight and 9 AM Friday morning. Wind
Advisories may be needed, but there`s still uncertainty in how
efficiently gusts mix to the surface in the widespread rain
showers.

Deep warm air advection will produce temperatures that are well
above normal for this time of year with highs in the 50s
expected across most of northern Ohio Thursday and widespread
50s and lower 60s anticipated on Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The next surface low will lift northeast from the Tennessee
Valley or Mid-Mississippi Valley early Saturday before crossing
or scraping the CWA Saturday afternoon and deepening to the
northeast of Lake Erie Saturday night. While there`s still some
uncertainty in the evolution and track of the low and the
resulting precip chances/winds over the local area, most of the
area will see a period of rain during the day Saturday into
Saturday night. The best upper level forcing and trough axis
won`t cross the area until Sunday, so above normal temperatures
will persist through Saturday before stronger cold air advection
returns by the end of the weekend. Highs in the lower 30s are
expected Sunday and it will be quite breezy with gusts to 30 to
35 mph (possibly higher) likely during the day. Accumulating
lake-enhanced snow showers are likely with and behind the trough
axis Sunday, although wintry precip will likely be short-lived
as a ridge builds east across the region on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
IFR ceilings are in place across the local area with patches of
low IFR and visibilities of 2 to 4 miles. Reduced visibilities
will linger into this morning with improvement through about 16Z
except possibly lingering at ERI through the afternoon. Light
rain showers will impact ERI/YNG with areas of drizzle at CLE.
Stratus deck can be seen on satellite imagery extending south to
the Ohio River Valley and it will take until this evening for
clearing to start to work into the area from the southwest.
Southerly winds expected tonight but can not rule out some
return to MVFR visibilities where skies have cleared and low
level moisture remains elevated.

West southwest winds of 7-12 knots expected today, backing to
the south and decreasing below 7 knots for tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in periods of rain Thursday night through
Saturday with a transition to lake enhanced snow showers on Sunday.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will decrease quickly today as a ridge builds
east across the Ohio Valley. Low pressure tracks northeast
across Lake Michigan on Thursday night with southerly winds
increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A strong low level jet will
overspread Lake Erie but very warm temperatures over the cool
lake waters will prevent the stronger winds aloft from mixing
down.

Another low pressure system will deepen as it tracks north across
Lake Erie on Saturday, with a lingering trough pulling a strong cold
front east across Lake Erie Saturday night into Sunday. Southwesterly
winds ramp up to 30 knots as the cold front wraps in from the
west Saturday night. A secondary cold front will pivot east
across Lake Erie Sunday evening. Some differences in storm track
and strength remain and could result in a window of gale force
winds if the stronger solutions verify. Low water conditions
will also be possible on the western basin of Lake Erie over the
weekend. The combination of the warm temperatures late this
week and strong southwesterly winds over the weekend could lead
to disruption or movement of the ice field on the western basin
of Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10