Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

221
FXUS61 KCLE 050814
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
414 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The axis of heaviest rainfall through tonight has shifted
slightly southeast and confidence is increasing for some
nuisance and/or minor river flooding.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will arrive
across the region today and tonight. Confidence is increasing
for some nuisance and/or minor river flooding.

2) A chilly air mass will return across the region mid to late
week with another round of Frost conditions possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An area of weak low pressure will develop along a slow- moving
cold front which is currently located in the vicinity of
southern Lake Michigan early this morning. Widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the
front this afternoon into tonight. Thunderstorm chances and the
heavy rain threat will be highest ahead of the front, generally
east of the I-71 corridor. The latest guidance indicates this
area could receive up to 1.5 inches of rain into early Wednesday
morning, with some isolated amounts up to 2 inches possible.
Area soundings support a modest heavy rain potential with
saturated and skinny-CAPE profiles, in addition to southwest
cloud layer flow paralleling the front. Given the already
saturated ground, characterized by 3-hour FFGs just under 2
inches across much of the area, confidence is increasing for at
least some instances of nuisance flooding and/or minor river
rises. More significant water issues cannot be ruled out if
rainfall totals trend any higher and will be something to
monitor.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Behind the cold front on Wednesday, temperatures will mainly
trend below normal through the end of the week and into the
weekend with 850 mb temperatures falling between 0 and -2C
Wednesday into Friday morning. This will bring some Frost
potential across the region both Wednesday and Thursday nights
as low temperatures drop into the 30s. Rain chances will return
Friday night into Saturday, and again on Sunday as a pair of low
pressure systems move through the region. Another round of
chilly temperatures appear likely by early next week behind
these systems.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Rain will increase in coverage over the next few hours,
especially across western and central terminals. This may cause
some brief MVFR, but generally expect VFR with mainly light
rain. Removed thunder early this morning given little to no
instability in the latest analysis.

After a lull in the rain showers in the roughly 12-15Z
timeframe, expect another round of rain to spread in from west
to east. This will be a much more widespread and longer lasting
period of rain, setting up a wet afternoon and evening with cigs
and vis gradually falling to MVFR and eventually IFR. Some
thunderstorms could develop on the front edge of this rain
shield at KMFD, KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI, so kept TEMPO
groups.

S to SW winds will gust to 20-25 knots at times this morning
before gradually turning NW late this morning through the
afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Wind speeds
will decrease through the afternoon, becoming NE around 3 to 5
knots by early tonight.

Outlook...Periodic rain showers with non-VFR are expected
through Saturday. Occasional thunderstorms are possible Friday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively quiet conditions are expected on Lake Erie the rest of
the week, with no marine headlines expected. SW winds of 10-15 knots
this morning will veer to NW behind a cold front this afternoon and
decrease to 5-10 knots. NE winds of 5-10 knots are then expected
tonight, becoming light and variable Wednesday and Wednesday night.
W winds will increase to 10-15 knots by late Thursday before turning
SW at 10-15 knots by Friday. The strongest winds of the entire
period will likely occur Friday night into Saturday, when SW winds
of 15-20 knots are expected.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas