Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

408
FXUS61 KCLE 182352
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
752 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Severe thunderstorm potential continues to decrease in our region.
However, isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging straight-line
wind gusts are possible through this early evening, especially east
of roughly I-77.
- A Frost Advisory has been issued for Lucas and Wood Counties for 2
AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday.
- A Freeze Watch has been issued for our entire CWA for 11 PM
  Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) A strong cold front continues to sweep eastward through our
region through this early evening. There is limited potential for
isolated severe thunderstorms ahead of the front, especially east of
roughly I-77.

2.) Unusually-cold air temperatures follow the strong cold front
through this Monday night. Frost and sub-32F low temperatures are a
concern. In addition, accumulating lake-effect snow is a concern
overnight Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Aloft, SW`erly flow and embedded shortwave disturbances affect
our region through daybreak Sunday as a primary trough axis
moves from the Upper Midwest toward the western Great Lakes. At the
surface, a strong cold front extended from just west of the Lake
Erie Islands to near Arlington, OH at 2:55 PM EDT this afternoon.
This front will continue moving E`ward and should exit the rest
of our CWA by 7 PM this evening. Low-level convergence/moist
ascent along the surface cold front and pre-front surface
trough axes in the warm sector, tied to the shortwave
disturbances aloft, will continue to release primarily weak
MUCAPE amidst a surface-based effective inflow layer, moderate
to strong effective bulk shear, and steep low-level lapse
rates/DCAPE as large as 400 to 600 J/kg, and result in
scattered multicell rain showers and isolated multicell and
supercell thunderstorms capable of producing strong to damaging
straight-line convective wind gusts as strong as 40 to 60 mph.
The best potential for isolated straight-line convective wind
damage exists roughly along/east of I-77, where greater daytime
heating has resulted in steeper low-level lapse rates and
greater DCAPE and boundary layer CAPE, respectively. Once the
surface cold front passes, isolated to scattered rain showers
associated with moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches
of the front should exit our CWA generally from west to east
between about 6 PM this evening and 5 AM tomorrow. Partial to
considerable clearing is expected behind the front as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies a surface ridge that will
attempt to build from the northern and central Great Plains.
This clearing and low-level cold/dry air advection behind the
front will allow low temperatures to reach the mid 30`s to lower
40`s around daybreak Sunday. Sufficient easing of surface winds
should contribute to areas of frost formation around daybreak
in interior Lucas County and far-northern Wood County.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
On Sunday through Sunday night, flow aloft eventually veers from
SW`erly to NW`erly as the primary trough axis aloft moves from
the western Great Lakes to near central NY and central PA and
shortwave troughs embedded in the flow continue to impact our
region. Flow aloft then remains NW`erly through Monday night as
a ridge aloft builds from the west. At the surface, net
troughing should linger over northern OH and NW PA, and a
secondary cold front should sweep SSE`ward through our CWA
Sunday evening. Behind the front, the aforementioned surface
ridge should begin to build in earnest from the northern and
central Great Plains through daybreak Monday. During the
remainder of Monday through Monday night, the surface ridge
should eventually crest E`ward in our region as the ridge aloft
continues to build from the west. This weather pattern
evolution at the surface and aloft will maintain a net low-level
CAA regime and unusually-cold air temperatures in our area.
Late afternoon highs should reach only the lower 40`s to lower
50`s on Sunday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the lower
20`s to lower 30`s around daybreak Monday and prompt the
eventual upgrade of the Freeze Watch to a warning for our CWA.
On Monday, late afternoon highs should reach only the mid 30`s
to upper 40`s as colder air continues to overspread our region
generally from the northwest, behind the secondary cold front.
Overall clearing and easing of our regional surface winds Monday
evening through daybreak Tuesday should contribute to
significant radiational cooling and lows reaching the 20`s to
mid 30`s. Additional freeze and frost alerts will likely be
needed.

Periods of rain are expected Sunday afternoon through evening
in response to moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of a
shortwave trough axis, low-level convergence/sufficiently-
moist ascent along the secondary cold front, and eventual
development of lake-effect precip (LEP) over and generally
southeast of Lake Erie, behind the cold front. Continued CAA at
the surface and aloft and the wet-bulb effect should allow rain
to mix with or change to wet snow Sunday evening, especially in
NE OH and NW PA. Any snow accumulations by midnight should be a
half inch or less and confined to the higher terrain in NW PA
and far-NE OH. Additional LEP, mainly in the form of snow, is
expected over and generally southeast of central and eastern
Lake Erie Monday morning as a NW`erly mean low-level flow of
unusually-cold/sufficiently-moist air persists over/downwind of
the ~8C to ~10C lake. The most-persistent snow, steady to heavy
at times, should be focused across Ashtabula County, western
Erie and Crawford Counties, PA, and vicinity due to an upstream
moisture connection to Lake Huron and resulting corridor of
greater lake-induced CAPE over Lake Erie. This is where
additional snow accumulations of 1-3" are possible. Additional
snow accumulations elsewhere in our snow belt counties and
vicinity should be 1" or less. LEP should weaken considerably
and then end by early Monday afternoon, and then be followed by
dry weather region-wide through daybreak Tuesday as the
aforementioned ridge is accompanied by a lowering and
stabilizing subsidence inversion. Note: an overall warming trend
is expected in our CWA on Tuesday through Saturday due, in part
to our region becoming located within a net WAA regime along
the western flank of the ridge at the surface and aloft. More
details to come in future AFD`s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Showers continue to move through the eastern terminals this
evening bringing down visibility and ceilings to MVFR and IFR at
times. With the cold front clearing the area to the east, should
expect conditions to steadily improve to VFR. There will be a
break in the ceilings for much of the region tomorrow morning as
clouds scatter out, but will return in the afternoon with
an approaching cold front from the northwest. Rain chances will
increase as well with the front, though confidence is low in how
far south the precipitation may reach and opted to leave out
SHRA in KCAK and KMFD at this time. Also, given how scattered
the showers will be, decided to keep with VFR conditions during
that time frame.

Winds currently are out of the west to west-northwest at 10-15
knots sustained, gusting between 20-25 knots. For most sites
overnight, there will be a lull in the gusts, but winds will
stay around 10-15 knots from the west. Gusts return by 14-15Z
tomorrow and will be gusting between 20-30 knots throughout the
day. Winds will shift to be more northwesterly behind the front
by tomorrow evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered rain and snow showers
Sunday afternoon and early Sunday night. Non-VFR possible
Tuesday night and Wednesday in rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will increase behind a strong cold front this evening,
with WNW winds of 15-25 knots in the western basin. These winds
will persist in the western basin through about 06Z before
diminishing to 10-20 knots. This lull in stronger winds will
continue through mid Sunday morning before WNW winds increase
to 15-25 knots across the entire lake from late morning through
the afternoon. Issued a Small Craft Advisory from Reno Beach to
Willowick starting at 00Z this evening to capture the first
period of stronger winds, but after coordination with WFO
Detroit, decided to delay the start of the Small Craft Advisory
from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach until 14Z Sunday since the winds
Sunday are more of a slam dunk. Small Craft Advisories also
begin for the rest of the nearshore waters from Willowick to
Ripley after 14Z Sunday. WNW winds of 15-25 knots will continue
through the afternoon, building wave heights to 3-5 feet at
times, before winds diminish Sunday evening. It will take until
early Sunday night for winds to diminish in the western and
central basins, so that Small Craft Advisory runs the longest
(through 03Z Monday).

Light winds are expected Monday and Monday night as high
pressure builds across the Great Lakes before S winds increase
to 15-20 knots Tuesday ahead of another cold front. Light winds
will return Wednesday through Thursday as another high builds
across the Great Lakes.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ003-006.
     Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
     OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ142-
     147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ143>146.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...23
MARINE...Garuckas