Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

843
FXUS61 KCLE 290547
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
147 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Heat Advisory has been issued for the Ohio counties as heat
indices will reach above 100 degrees starting Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions are expected across the region this week.

2) Low chances for showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow,
then again on Friday as the surface high pressure breaks down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will begin to build to the southeast as upper level
ridging moves into the eastern half of CONUS. Concurrently, a low
pressure system will move north across the Great Plains dragging a
warm front through the region during the day tomorrow. This will
bring much warmer and humid air in from the west-southwest and
temperatures will begin to rise well above average starting
tomorrow. The warm front will only clear the western counties in
Ohio by tomorrow evening, and heat indices will rise as a result and
exceed 100 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the I-75
corridor starting noon tomorrow. Hot and humid conditions will
spread to the remainder of the area as the warm front pushes north
Monday evening. An additional Heat Advisory has been issued for the
rest of Northern Ohio starting at noon on Tuesday to account for
this increased temperatures and heat indices. Both Heat Advisories
will run through Thursday evening, though hot and humid conditions
may last into the weekend with lower confidence. Heat indices will
be the highest Wednesday and Thursday as they approach 105, with
areas out west potentially eclipsing that mark. An upgrade to an
Extreme Heat Warning may be needed for at least the I-75 corridor
during that time period. To go along with the daytime heat,
overnight lows will be warm as well. Temperatures will only drop
down into the mid to upper 70s this week, providing little relief to
to the heat. As mentioned above, confidence in heat related
headlines decreases with the high pressure breaking down into the
weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along a
stationary boundary that is located across the Ohio Valley. The best
chance for any showers would be in eastern Ohio as the drift
northward. Additionally, showers and possible in Northeastern Ohio
and Northwestern Pennsylvania as well with interaction with the lake
breeze. The boundary will move to the south this evening and
precipitation chances will decrease. Tomorrow, as the warm front
pushes north, there is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms
across Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania in the late
evening to early morning on Tuesday.

Late in the week the upper level ridge will begin to break down and
the surface high will weaken. A few long range models depict a
shortwave moving through the region on Friday that could bring
showers and thunderstorms back to the area. Will need to monitor how
this unfolds throughout the week as there could be potential for
organized thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
There is a variety of VFR clouds across the area early this
morning with high pressure over the region. Some non-VFR
visibility may develop with some mist/fog with high near surface
moisture across the region. However, clouds overhead will make
widespread fog difficult. With that, have some IFR at KMFD,
KCAK, and KYNG with MVFR at KCLE and KFDY. Some mid-level clouds
may try to reach KTOL and KFDY later this morning with a warm
front entering the region. Otherwise, high clouds will be
favored today with southerly flow. A lake breeze should impact
KCLE and KERI this afternoon, flipping winds to the northeast.

Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will persist over the area into Monday before a
warm front begins to lift north across the basin. Light
northeast winds this evening will gradually veer to become
south-southwesterly at 5-10 knots Monday night. Once the warm
front fully lifts north, high pressure will build over the
eastern US and persist into at least Friday. Southwest winds of
5-10 knots will be maintained through that period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hotter and more humid weather is expected this Monday through Friday.
Record warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
06-29   100(1952)      96(1934)       94(2012)       98(1952)       99(1933)       90(2021)
06-30   97(1953)       94(1970)       95(1941)       96(1913)       94(1942)       92(1930)
07-01   98(1931)       98(1931)       95(2002)       97(1931)       96(1931)       94(2018)
07-02   98(2011)       97(1931)       97(1954)       98(1931)       98(1931)       94(1963)
07-03   100(1911)      93(2020)       98(1949)       97(1911)       98(1898)       93(1934)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ003-
     006-017.
     Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     OHZ007>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...04