Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

874
FXUS61 KCLE 200007
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
807 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday night through
Tuesday. Storms may be severe Tuesday afternoon and evening, but
there is uncertainty.

2) Brief warm up Monday and Tuesday followed by a longer period
of cool temperatures and low humidity mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes tonight will briefly
lift Monday ahead of an unseasonably strong shortwave diving
from Manitoba into the northern Great Lakes. This shortwave
will continue to dive through the central and eastern Great
Lakes Tuesday. As this occurs, the Canadian high at the surface
will shift off of the Mid Atlantic coast Monday as a deepening
surface low progresses across northern Ontario and through
northern Quebec Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Return low-level flow and developing warm air advection Monday
will strengthen Monday night as a warm front lifts east and
northeast across the region. An impressive 110-120 knot H3 jet
streak rounding the base of the diving shortwave will support a
35-45 knot low-level jet in the western Great Lakes Monday
night, and this strong moist, theta e advection and isentropic
ascent ahead of the warm front should ignite and sustain a
nocturnal MCS. This period is starting to come into the range of
CAMS, and most dive the most organized portion of this MCS
across Illinois and Indiana along the instability/theta e
gradient. This makes sense given that the low-levels will still
be dry and stable in northern Ohio and NW PA, however, elevated
instability advecting into our region overnight should still
generate some showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather will not
occur with this Monday night elevated convection, but locally
heavy downpours are possible.

The main show associated with this unusually dynamic mid summer
system still looks to be Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of
the strong cold front that will drop south across the region.
The aforementioned impressive jet streak will shift across
southern Ontario Tuesday afternoon as the axis of the shortwave
crosses the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will
support strong ascent across northern Ohio, NW PA, and the Lake
Erie region beneath the right entrance of this jet streak,
leading to strong forcing along and ahead of the cold front. In
most cases, this would be a clear cut set-up for an organized,
severe line of convection in the form of a QLCS. The continued
uncertainty lies with the Monday night and early Tuesday morning
convection. The aforementioned elevated convection Monday night,
as well as remnants from the upstream MCS activity, will likely
leave cloud cover and outflow boundaries across our region
Tuesday morning. Many times in the past, this has caused the
new convection to initiate along these outflow boundaries and
differential heating boundaries in southern and eastern portions
of the CWA, and then the convection matures mainly south and
east of our area. This very well may be the case Tuesday. The
SWODY3 Enhanced Risk with 45% wind over the southern and eastern
fringe of the CWA looks reasonable at this time given the
potential for convection to mature to the south and east
Tuesday afternoon, with lower probabilities farther north and
west. This will continue to be monitored closely since the
dynamics of this system and surge of warmth and humidity ahead
of it could support a more widespread threat if the frontal
timing slows at all or if less convection impacts the area
Monday night/Tuesday morning. Regardless of intensity or
organization, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms
around much of Tuesday, so maintained likely to categorical
POPS.

Most areas will dry out rapidly behind the cold front Tuesday
night, but deep mid/upper longwave troughing across the Great
Lakes in the wake of the system and associated cold air
advection and cyclonic flow will likely support additional
lake-effect and lake enhanced rain showers in far NE Ohio and NW
PA through Wednesday until broad Canadian high pressure builds
in by Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The warm air advection developing Monday as the surface high
departs to the east will allow temperatures to warm back into
the low/mid 80s, except upper 70s in NW PA. Despite the warmer
air temperatures, humidity will remain comfortable as dew
points stay mainly in the 50s. This will change Monday night and
Tuesday as deeper low-level moisture in the warm sector surges
into the area. This will bring 70+ degree dew points back into
the area for Tuesday, and this combined with temperatures in the
mid/upper 80s will support heat indices around 90. For those who
don`t like the heat and humidity, the cooler weather will make
an abrupt return behind the cold front Tuesday night as the deep
mid/upper trough and strong Canadian high take up residence
across the Great Lakes the rest of the week. This will support a
longer period of below normal temperatures, with highs mainly in
the low/mid 70s Wednesday and Thursday, gradually warming Friday
through the weekend. However, humidity will remain comfortable.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
High pressure across the region will allow for dry weather and
light winds over the next 24-30 hours. Conditions will be
primarily VFR through the TAF period. However, some wildfire
smoke continues to move across the region and may allow for some
brief MVFR. This smoke is higher aloft and less problematic
than last week`s event. However, visibility may intermittently
drop to MVFR in haze through Monday morning. There could be a
better window for MVFR in the pre-dawn hours as the atmosphere
stabilizes and an inversion builds, trapping some smoke near the
surface.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms Monday
night through Tuesday. Some thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
evening may contain strong wind gusts. Residual non-VFR possible
on Wednesday on rain showers across the eastern half of the
area.

&&

.MARINE...
Good marine conditions are expected on the lake this afternoon
through Monday with winds around 10 knots or less and waves 1
to 2 feet. The next period of concern for rough marine
conditions and marine headlines will be on Tuesday. Southwest
winds will increase 15 to 25 knots ahead of a cold front. Rough
marine conditions will continue into  Wednesday as winds shift
towards the northwest behind the front around 20 knots and waves
of 3 to 5 feet. In addition, strong to severe thunderstorm wind
gusts are possible across Lake Erie Monday night into Tuesday
ahead of the front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...77