Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

661
FXUS61 KCLE 302300
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
700 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Raised pops for tonight and shifted northward to encompass most of
the area in showers tonight into Friday morning. Lowered
temperatures slightly in the east to allow a low chance of snow
to mix with rain in Ashtabula and inland NW Pennsylvania
generally early Friday morning. Added a chance of rain near and
south of Lake Erie on Friday night for North Central Ohio which
did result in less coverage of frost.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and a
Frost Advisory is in effect for inland portions of Erie and Crawford
County PA for tonight. Potential for frost will expand Friday night
and Saturday night.

2) Rain expected late tonight through Friday morning. A few wet snow
flakes could mix in but not expecting impacts.

3) A warmer pattern returns next week with the potential for showers
and thunderstorms through the first half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cool airmass has settled over the region with temperatures this
afternoon ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Cloud cover has a
cumuliform appearance to it and expect to see a decrease in coverage
through this evening. Temperatures will drop quickly in the east
with very light winds while western areas will see cloud cover
already on the increase ahead of the next system. A Frost
Advisory remains in effect for inland Northwest Pennsylvania
through tonight although temperatures may start to recover late
tonight as clouds and showers approach. These showers will keep
temperatures cool on Friday and lowered highs slightly, with a
few locations in the east seeing highs in the upper 40s.
Temperatures on Friday will average around 15 degrees below
normal.

For Friday night, some cloud cover and even a low chance of showers
is expected with an upper level trough over the Central Great Lakes.
Given the cold airmass with 850mb temperatures of around -5C, low
temperatures are still expected to fall into the low 30s with light
winds. The coverage of cloud cover complicates the frost forecast
with greatest potential for frost on all fringes of the
forecast area. Portions of inland NW Pennsylvania may even see a
freeze. Expecting less cloud cover by Saturday night with more
areas experiencing a widespread frost.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A shortwave trough can be seen dropping through the Upper
Midwest on water vapor imagery as it rounds the broad upper
level trough over the Great Lakes Region. Surface low pressure
is starting to develop over northern Illinois this afternoon and
will slide east across the local area through Friday morning.
Precipitation will develop along a fairly compact baroclinic
zone overhead with widespread rain in the forecast for late
tonight into Friday morning. It is worth noting that while
temperatures will tend to be near 40 degrees during the rain
event, some cooling due to melting where good rates are
occurring to the north of the low may allow temperatures to
briefly dip into the upper 30s. Can not rule a little mix with
wet snow although potential for any wintry impacts is low. Did
included a short window of a rain/snow mix in far Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania late tonight into early Friday. The
trend over the last several cycles has been to the north with
around a quarter of an inch of rain across our northern counties
and closer towards a tenth of an inch closer to Central Ohio.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The persistent upper level trough departs on Sunday with a warm
front lifting north of the area on Monday. Winds back to the
southwest on Sunday but still under the influence of high
pressure. Moisture return in conjunction with a low level jet
Sunday night with a few showers or thunderstorms possible.
Better instability returns on Monday in the warm sector with
additional chances for thunderstorms. Better forcing looks
focused on Tuesday ahead of the associated cold front.
Temperatures trend cooler again behind the front for the middle
to end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00 Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Conditions are
starting out as VFR and will continue through the late evening
hour. Eventually MVFR to lower end MVFR ceilings will move in
from west to east during the late night and early Friday
morning. Some TAF sites like TOL, FDY, CLE, and ERI may see IFR
ceilings by early Friday morning. Ceilings will become MVFR to
VFR later in the TAF period or late Friday afternoon. Scattered
rain showers will move in later tonight through Friday morning
causing 3sm to 5sm visibilities. Winds will generally be from
the west or northwest 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions across Lake Erie will stay generally quiet through the
weekend. Winds will be predominately out of the north to northwest at
5-15 knots through Saturday before shifting to be out of the west on
Sunday. Waves during this time period will stay less than 3 feet.
High pressure will pass to the south on Sunday and winds will
increase out of the west to 10-20 knots and then shift to be out of
the southwest by the evening. By Monday morning, winds will increase
to 15-25 knots out of the southwest and persist into Tuesday and
waves will build to 2-4 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...77
MARINE...23