Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

173
FXUS61 KCLE 111803
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
103 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include more of
NE OH/NW PA with Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula Counties under the
advisory until 7 PM and Erie and Crawford Counties in PA under
the advisory until 1 AM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake effect snow, gusty winds, and seasonably cool
temperatures expected today.

2) Windy conditions possible Tuesday afternoon.

3) A deepening trough across the eastern US will impact the area
on Wednesday as an associated strong cold front pushes east
across the area. This cold front will usher in below normal
temperatures for the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include more of
NE OH/NW PA with Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula Counties under the
advisory until 7 PM and Erie and Crawford Counties in PA under
the advisory until 1 AM. 1 to 3 inches of snow is occurring with
a band of heavy snow moving through the region and an additional
1 to 3+ inches is expected with lake effect snow this afternoon
and evening. This will bring the storm total snow to 3 to 6
inches by this evening for the advisory areas.

Previous Key Message 1 Discussion...
As an upper level trough shifts south and pushes east this
morning, an area of light to moderate snow will move east across
the area. General accumulations of 1 inch or less are expected
with this push of snow. Within the heaviest bands of snow,
visibilities and road conditions may quickly diminish and
motorists should use caution.

By mid-morning, the trough axis will push east of the area,
allowing for a surface trough to become established over the
area. Winds with this trough will become more west to
northwesterly, allowing for an onshore flow to develop across
NEOH and NWPA. With much of Lake Erie remaining unfrozen, 850mb
temperatures of -11 to -12C will allow for enough instability to
develop, resulting in lake effect snow. The biggest uncertainty
is in the moisture throughout the low and mid levels. Initially
this morning, models suggest a push of drier air pushing over
the area before mid-level level moisture returns this afternoon.
As a result, expect the heaviest lake effect snow showers to
develop this afternoon into the early evening. Snowfall totals
with this update remain nearly the same with 1-3 inches expected
across the NEOH snowbelt and Crawford County PA. Locally higher
amounts of 3-5 inches is possible across Erie County PA. Lake
effect snow should quickly end tonight as high pressure builds
in.

In addition to the snowfall potential, gusty winds from the
southwest to west will gradually shift to northwesterly by this
evening. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph are expected with gusts up
to 35 mph possible. The strongest wind gusts will likely be
isolated to western counties where the strong portion of the LLJ
will be centered and along the immediate lakeshore. In areas of
snowfall, these gusty winds could result in patchy blowing snow
which could further make travel hazardous. High temperatures
today will be in the low to mid 30s, but with the gusty winds
the apparent temperatures will feel closer to mid teens to low
20s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

On Tuesday, a deepening low pressure system will gradually shift
into the western Great Lakes region with above normal
temperatures ahead of a system expected to usher in an arctic
airmass. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to climb into
the low to mid 40s with Wednesday`s highs likely occurring
overnight Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front. This strong
temperature gradient will aid in the development of a strong LLJ
and the ultimate ramping up of winds from the southwest across
the area on Tuesday. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph are expected
with gusts up to 35-40 mph possible.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A deepening trough digging south across the eastern US will
impact the entire area on Wednesday into Thursday as an
associate surface low tracks across the Great Lakes region.
Ahead of a strong cold front early Wednesday, widespread rain
showers are expected. As this boundary moves east, a much colder
airmass will move into the area, allowing for a fairly quick
transition from rain to snow. Cannot rule out some mixed
precipitation or areas of snow squalls. During this transition,
it will be important to watch how quickly temperatures fall for
any additional hazards to become a concern, such as black ice.

There remains differences in the location and timing of this
system amongst long range models which will likely impact the
precipitation type and timing as well. The 2 uncertainties at
this point is how fast does this low shift east as current
models suggest it will slowly meander and how far south does the
surface low shift towards the Ohio Valley. All models do seem to
be in agreement however that a much colder airmass will bring
the return of below normal temperatures to the area for the end
of the week. Once this trough axis and surface low shift east,
there is a potential for lake effect snow showers to occur
across the snowbelt.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Lake-effect snow showers will continue across much of NE Ohio
and NW PA through the rest of the afternoon before slowly fading
this evening. This will bring prevailing MVFR, with occasional
IFR as well. The snow showers across NW and north central Ohio
around KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD will be much more intermittent, but
MVFR will prevail even there the rest of the afternoon. Drier
air gradually works into the area tonight, with VFR returning
from west to east. Chances for snow showers and MVFR will hold
the longest at KERI, but they should be VFR by mid morning
Monday. This will set up a break in the weather with VFR into
Monday afternoon.

WNW winds of 15-20 knots will gust to 20-30 knots this afternoon
before slowly diminishing to 10-15 knots tonight and turning W.
Winds will become SW and quickly increase again to 15-20 knots
with gusts over 20 knots Monday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain/snow showers Tuesday and
Wednesday, with lake effect snow showers possible in NE OH and
NW PA on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front has reached the western basin early this morning
and will cross the lake over the next few hours. Winds with this
initial front have been underperforming and most of the lake is
not even achieving Small Craft Advisory level winds, let alone
gales. However, a secondary cold front will enter later this
morning into the afternoon. This second front should allow for
an uptick in winds with the potential for gale force winds to 35
kts for the eastern half of the lake, as winds shift to the west
then northwest. With that, will maintain the current headlines,
but will note that this event is underachieving and can see
headlines get pulled back before the 7 PM end times.

For tonight and beyond, the windy and unsettled pattern will
continue across the lake this week and believe that there will
be several opportunities for additional marine headlines. A
surface ridge building in tonight into Monday will bring
elevated southwest winds of 20 kts and the ongoing Small Craft
Advisory may need to be extended further in time. The pressure
gradient with this ridge will weaken on Monday night and should
allow for 10 to 15 kt winds and at least one period without a
need for a marine headline. For Tuesday, a warm front will lift
across the lake and elevated southwest flow of 15 to 25 kts will
return and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed. A cold front
will cross the lake on Wednesday and onshore flow of 15 to 20
kts will overtake the lake and allow for waves over 4 ft,
possibly necessitating any Small Craft Advisories to continue.
High pressure will begin entering on Thursday and allow for flow
below 20 kts and waves to subside, likely allowing for a period
or two without a marine headline.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     OHZ012>014-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ142-
     143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ144-
     145.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ146>149-
     166>169.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04/Sefcovic
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Sefcovic