Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

621
FXUS61 KCLE 062337
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
737 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A late season lake-effect snow event is still expected tonight
over the snowbelt of NE Ohio and NW PA. Snow amounts remain
consistent, with a coating to up to 0.5 inches across much of
the primary and secondary snowbelts, but 1-2 inches are likely
across the highest elevations of northern Geauga County, and 2-3
inches are likely in southern and eastern Erie County, PA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably cold through Tuesday night, with lake-effect
snow showers tonight through Tuesday morning. This will lead to
light accumulations in the snowbelts of NE Ohio and NW PA, with
the greatest amounts in the highest elevations inland from the
lakeshore. This could cause localized slippery roads.

2) Dry conditions and warming temperatures midweek, with
chances for showers and thunderstorms returning Friday.

3) Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms late in the
weekend through early next week as temps warm well above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The weather pattern over the next day and a half will be more
typical of mid winter, characterized by a broad mid/upper trough
across the central and eastern CONUS downstream of broad western
CONUS mid/upper ridging. This will bring a late season surge of
arctic air across the Great Lakes region, and given the broad,
cyclonic NW flow pattern, this spells the typical lake-effect
snow showers.

Diurnally driven rain showers are ongoing this afternoon as a
result of the strong April sunshine that has steepened the low-
level lapse rates beneath the cold pool aloft. This activity
will not be very impactful through early evening, with just
occasional light rain mixed with some graupel at times. The
attention this evening will turn to a potent mid-level shortwave
and associated surface low that is expected to cross the central
Great Lakes before passing over Lake Ontario late tonight. This
feature can be seen on water vapor loops over northern Lower
Michigan this afternoon. As the associated surface trough
approaches Lake Erie this evening, the combination of increasing
synoptic moisture, low-level convergence, and deepening cold air
will allow lake enhanced rain and snow showers to blossom in
coverage. Most HREF members, the RAP, and RGEM have widespread
rain/snow moving into far NE Ohio and NW PA after 23Z where the
combination of synoptic moisture and forcing will be best, and
this will transition to pure snow after sunset due to both wet
bulbing and the cold air deepening. This should lead to a quick
coating to few tenths of an inch of snow in the highest terrain
of southern and eastern Erie County, PA.

Behind the trough overnight, well aligned NW boundary layer flow
and 850 mb temps dropping to -13 to -15 C will set up a multi-
banded lake-effect snow/upslope regime. Boosted POPS overnight
across both the primary and secondary snowbelts given pattern
recognition and the fact that lake induced instability will be
moderate to strong (several hundred joules) now that lake temps
have warmed to an average of over 7 C. The one thing that will
help to keep accumulations in-check is that the widow of
greatest boundary layer moisture only goes through about 09Z
before drier air starts to work in thanks to Canadian high
pressure building down from the Upper Midwest. With this all
being said, most of the primary and secondary snowbelts inland
from the lakeshore should see a coating to as much as 0.5
inches, with up to 2 inches over the Chardon/Hambden/Thompson
areas of northern Geauga County. A favorable fetch off Lake
Huron when combined with the snow from the shortwave this
evening should boost totals in southern and eastern Erie County,
PA, so kept some 2-3 inch amounts there.

Snow showers will quickly end by 15Z Tuesday morning as the high
builds overhead, and this should lead to plenty of sunshine for
the afternoon. However, the impressive airmass will keep
temperatures 20-25 degrees below normal. Expect highs only to
reach the mid 30s in most areas, with low 40s in far NW Ohio.
Lows Tuesday night will be very cold under strong radiational
cooling, with widespread low to mid 20s. Some teens are likely
in sheltered valley areas of eastern Ohio and interior NW PA

KEY MESSAGE 2...
After the cold snap, a welcomed warming trend will take place
Wednesday through Thursday as the surface high departs across
New England and mid/upper heights rise ahead of another shortwave
trough tracking from the northern Plains into northern Ontario.
This shortwave and attendant surface low will slowly push a cold
front into the region from the NW Thursday night and Friday,
bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. We may
need to watch for pockets of heavy rainfall with repeated rounds
of convection as this front looks to become quasi-stationary
near the region through Friday in response to another possible
wave tracking along the boundary.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Another Canadian high will push the front south to the Ohio
River Valley Saturday allowing for dry and cooler conditions,
but the front will quickly return north as a warm front Sunday
in response to a series of shortwaves ejecting out of a
trough/closed low moving into the western CONUS. This will set
up a very warm and potentially active pattern through early
next week depending on where the front eventually stalls out.
Confidence is high that temperatures will warm to much above
normal levels through early next week, but confidence on the
timing and placement of convection is low given the uncertainty
on the placement of the boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Scattered diurnal showers will continue to wane this evening,
although lake-enhanced snow showers will likely move onshore and
impact KERI and possibly KYNG/KCLE tonight into early Tuesday
morning. Periodic MVFR conditions are possible in low ceilings
and possibly lower visibilities in any moderate snowfall rates
with the highest confidence at KERI. There is a low-end chance
of IFR conditions in snow at KERI tonight, but confidence in the
placement of the more moderate bands of snow is a bit too low
to include in the TAF at this point. Will continue to monitor
radar and satellite trends and make amendments as needed.
Precipitation will taper off as high pressure builds into the
region by late morning Tuesday and expect widespread VFR
conditions from mid to late morning onwards.

Winds will be out of the northwest at 6 to 12 knots with gusts
to 15 to 25 knots tonight into Tuesday morning before winds
shift to the north/northeast and diminish to 10 knots or less
Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in scattered rain showers Thursday
night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As a secondary cold front pushes south across Lake Erie today,
west-northwest winds will increase to 15-25 knots allowing waves
to build to 4-6 feet. These winds will persist into mid Tuesday
morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Islands
to the east into Tuesday morning. On Tuesday, high pressure will
become dominant across the region, allowing for northerly winds
to weaken to 55-12 knots, gradually veering throughout the day
to become southeasterly by Wednesday morning. On Thursday, a
warm front will shift north of the area, shifting winds to
south-southwesterly and once again increasing them to 15-20
knots. Will have to monitor conditions Thursday for any need for
a small craft, but given off shore flow, it should be really
marginal. The associated cold front will push east on Friday,
shifting winds to northwesterly at 5-10 knots which will persist
into Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...15
MARINE...04