Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

515
FXUS61 KCLE 010434
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1134 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold temperatures are still anticipated through Sunday night,
however the likelihood of the issuance of Cold Weather
Advisories the next two nights remains low. Confidence in
accumulating snow late next week continues to slowly increase,
however overall confidence in accumulations and resulting
impacts is still low.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold weather will continue through Sunday night with
temperatures below 20 degrees and overnight lows near to below
zero. Wind chills of 10 degrees below zero or colder are
expected tonight into Sunday morning and will allow for
continued frostbite and exposure risks.

2) Light snow chances remain through tonight and again on Monday,
which could produce some marginal travel impacts.

3) There is increasing potential for active winter weather late
next week. Accumulating snowfall and travel impacts are
possible, but confidence remains low at this time.&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An Arctic air mass will remain in place over the area through
the remainder of the weekend, resulting in continued frigid
temperatures. Widespread cloud cover across the area has
resulted in teens in the single digits and teens this afternoon
and expect lows in the 0 to -5 degree range tonight. Winds will
be a bit more elevated with northwest winds reaching 5 to 10
mph in several locations, resulting in minimum wind chills
between -5 and -15 degrees tonight. The colder wind chills
closer to -15 degrees (possibly a little bit colder in
localized areas) will occur in typical cold spots, which is
supported by 12Z HREF probabilities. Similar to last night,
cloud cover may limit radiational cooling which could lead to
warmer minimum temperatures and warmer wind chills. Will need
to keep an eye on satellite and wind trends; a Cold Weather
Advisory may need to be introduced for tonight if winds trend
higher and/or clouds clear more than currently anticipated.

Temperatures will be slightly warmer (widespread mid to upper
teens) during the day Sunday and Sunday night will feature one
last night of near zero to subzero temperatures for at least a
couple of days. Sunday night`s wind chills will generally be in
the -5 to -10 degree range, although once again the typical cold
spots may be a few degrees cooler. Do not anticipate needing a
Cold Weather Advisory at this point. Expect temperatures to
"warm" into the 20s during the day Monday.

Despite the lack of cold weather headlines, the continued cold
will continue to produce similar impacts on infrastructure,
people, and animals through at least the end of the weekend.
Some impacts may persist into the work week as temps stay below
freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
An upper trough has pushed south across Lake Erie and residual
moisture behind the feature will produce continued chances of
light snow showers through this evening. Have certainly seen a
downward trend in snowfall rates and dendrite size with the loss
of the best forcing, so any additional accumulations should be
minimal. However, given the sub-freezing pavement temperatures,
any snowfall rates that are higher than flurries will likely
produce at least a dusting on roadways which could result in
additional slippery travel. More persistent snow may also
produce brief reductions in visibility.

Snow showers will diminish by Sunday morning at the latest and
the next disturbance will bring low-end chances of light snow
showers to the entire area on Monday with some lake-enhanced
snow showers (influenced by the open water on upstream Great
Lakes) possible into early Tuesday. Accumulations should be
light and any impacts would be similar to today.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Deterministic guidance continues to suggest the potential for
widespread snowfall and the return of cold weather as low
pressure pushes southeast from the Upper Great Lakes late in the
week. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding the evolution and track of the low and the resulting
placement and timing of snow accumulations/impacts across the
area. Any impacts would likely occur at some point between Thursday
night and Friday evening. Stay tuned for updates!

&&


.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
MVFR ceilings will begin to break down after 16Z Sunday as the
925mb level begins to dry out. Light snow continues for the
next few hours, off and on across portions of northern Ohio and
northwestern Pennsylvania. High pressure influences move in
from the south for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
Northwest winds less than 12kts.

Outlook...Periodic non-VFR due to low clouds and/or snow
expected through this Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
In the dead of winter and surprisingly no flags are expected
throughout this marine forecast package. Wind speeds are expected to
remain between 5 to 15 knots. Northernly winds will slowly back to
the west tonight through Monday as the high pressure moves east from
the Mid Mississippi Valley across the Tennessee Valley. Winds will
finally veer to the west Monday night through Tuesday as a very weak
cold front tracks east across Lake Erie. Behind the front, west to
northwest winds are expected through Wednesday as another ridge
builds into the region. Persistent cold air in place and a
relatively weak wind flow will allow extensive ice cover on Lake
Erie to expand and thicken further through the middle of next
week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...26
MARINE...FZ