Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

020
FXUS61 KCLE 141157
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
757 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast remains valid through the middle of next week. No major
changes to note.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Lake-effect/enhanced rain showers end today and below-
average air temperatures persist through tonight.

2.) A warming trend is expected this Friday through Tuesday
night.

3.) Cooler weather is expected next week Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A longwave trough aloft exits E`ward through tonight as its axis
moves from near western NY and the central Appalachians early
this morning to western New England and just offshore the
Delmarva Peninsula by daybreak Friday. Otherwise, a surface high
pressure ridge continues to build from the western Great Lakes
and vicinity, and the portion of this ridge in the mid/upper-
levels will begin to build from the west by tonight. This weather
pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will maintain net
low-level CAA and an unusually-cold air mass across our CWA.
Highs are expected to reach only the upper 40`s to lower 50`s
in NW PA and the 50`s to mid 60`s in northern OH late this
afternoon. Tonight`s lows are expected to reach mainly the 40`s
around daybreak Friday. However, clearer sky and resulting
greater nocturnal cooling should contribute to lows reaching the
upper 30`s in portions of interior NE OH.

Light lake-effect/enhanced rain showers will persist over and
generally southeast of Lake Erie this morning, especially
central and eastern portions of the lake, amidst a primarily
NW`erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air
over/downwind of the ~13C lake, weak lake-induced CAPE, and a
periodic seeder-feeder process amidst a sufficiently-cold/moist
low/mid-level atmospheric column and isentropic ascent ahead of
shortwave trough axes embedded in the aforementioned longwave
trough aloft. During this afternoon through about sunset this
evening, lingering lake-effect/enhanced rain showers are
expected to end from west to east and give way to dry weather
region-wide for tonight as lake-induced CAPE wanes amidst
low/mid-level dry air advection and a lowering subsidence
inversion accompanying the ridge that will build from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A warming trend is expected this Friday through Tuesday night
as the ridge at the surface and aloft exits slowly E`ward and
our region becomes located within a net low-level WAA regime
along the western flank of the ridge. At the surface, a warm
front is forecast to sweep N`ward through our region Friday
night, while a cold front should approach our CWA from the
northwest on Saturday through Saturday night before stalling in
vicinity of southern Lower MI and the northern shore of Lake
Erie by Sunday. This surface front should then retreat N`ward as
a warm front and away from our region by Monday before a a cold
front approaches from the northwest by Tuesday night as one
frontal surface low moves generally E`ward from the Upper
Midwest toward southern QC and is followed by a separate frontal
surface low that should undergo lee cyclogenesis east of the CO
Rockies and then move NE`ward toward the northern Great Lakes.
Moderating temperatures should include daytime highs in the 60`s
to lower 70`s on Friday followed by daytime highs in the mid
80`s to near 90F this Monday and Tuesday, respectively.

Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight
Friday night through Tuesday night as a low-level return flow
of warm, moist, and at least weakly-unstable air originating
over the Gulf becomes established in our region, moist
isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of Friday night`s warm
front releases at least weak and elevated instability, and
multiple shortwave troughs embedded in the primarily SW`erly
flow aloft and attendant surface trough axes traverse our CWA
Friday night through Tuesday night. Note: strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible this Saturday afternoon and evening
amidst weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE, steep mid-level
lapse rates near 7C/km to 7.5C/km associated with an EML plume
that should traverse our region generally from west to east, and
moderate to strong deep layer-bulk shear.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
During this upcoming Wednesday, the surface cold front should
sweep SE`ward across our region as the aforementioned CO low moves
generally E`ward from the northern Great Lakes toward southern
QC and shortwave disturbances embedded in primarily W`erly flow
aloft traverse our CWA. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms should impact northern OH and NW PA as
convergence/moist ascent along the cold front and surface trough
axes accompanying the shortwave troughs aloft release at least
weak boundary layer CAPE in the warm/moist sector. Given the
expectation of scattered to widespread precip and greater cloud
cover, Wednesday should be cooler and feature daytime highs in
mainly the 70`s to near 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Lake enhanced rain showers are ongoing across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania as a trough resides over the eastern
Great Lakes. Ceilings are generally MVFR although a few pockets
of IFR are also present in NE Ohio with VFR conditions at
TOL/FDY. The precipitation is generally expected to taper off
from northwest to southeast through 18Z. Skies will tend to lift
to VFR and scatter out from west to east through the afternoon.
West to northwest winds will increase after 14Z with gusts to
22-28 knots through the afternoon. Winds will trend more
northerly after 23Z and gusts will diminish, becoming
increasingly light and variable towards 06Z.

Outlook...Non-VFR becoming more likely in showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional non-VFR
possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon and evening, though chances are lower.

&&

.MARINE...
A brisk northwest wind continues on Lake Erie today as the lake
resides between high pressure over Lake Michigan and low pressure
near Lake Ontario. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the
central basin from the Islands to Erie PA where the waves will
remain elevated in the 3 to 5 foot range through midday before
decreasing. It is possible that areas from Cleveland to Ashtabula
may even need to be extended a few more hours.

High pressure will build overhead tonight through Friday with good
marine conditions. Southwest winds return on Saturday but overall
winds are expected to be 5-15 knots over the weekend. A bigger
concern over the weekend will be potential for showers and
thunderstorms on the lake and erratic winds associated with
those.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10