Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

094
FXUS61 KCLE 252356
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
756 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in severe weather east of I-71 has increased for this
afternoon, with an SPC slight risk expected. The probability for
areawide rainfall and QPF > 1" has increased Friday evening into
Friday night. Confidence is increasing in a significant and long
duration heat wave next week, with heat indices likely near or
exceeding 100 degrees for multiple days.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is a chance for a few strong to severe storms east of I-71
between 3 and 7 PM today.

2) Areawide rain expected Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Heavy rain is possible south of US-30.

2) Significant heat and humidity builds next week, with heat
indices likely exceeding 100 degrees, especially in Northwest
Ohio.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper-level trough is moving eastward into the
Great Lakes region (noted on water vapor satellite imagery), with
its attendant surface low into west-central lower Michigan.

Morning convection still lingers near Youngstown area (as of ~18Z)
but should exit shortly. This morning`s convection left behind
a slightly worked over environment, but broad southwest flow
should yield quick recovery of the atmosphere. Latest
mesoanalysis reveals pooling of low-level moisture and surface
convergence along and in the vicinity of the I-71 corridor,
which is confirmed by a building cumulus field on satellite,
especially the area south of Mansfield. This is likely where we
see convective initiation over the next hour or two (by 4 PM).
Convection will initially begin as a broken line and shear
vector angled around 45 degree to the forcing mechanism (pre-
frontal trough) may actually favor keeping things
clustered/multicellular initially instead of growing upscale
quickly. We are also seeing additional convection developing
farther west near the I-75 corridor and that may also continue
to develop further.

The combination of strong deep-layer shear and modest instability
expected will favor strong to severe thunderstorms with this cluster
of storms. Primary weather hazard will be strong to damaging winds
within the strongest storms, but large hail and a few tornado are
also possible, especially if storm mode can remain a bit more
discrete.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The cold front swings through tonight, stalling just south of
the forecast area tonight. Low pressure that develops over the
southern Great Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley moves east-
northeast along this boundary and across Ohio Friday night into
Saturday morning. Overall trends in synoptic features has
trended just a bit farther north, with this forecast package
increasing the PoP and QPF forecast, with a slightly greater
risk of heavy rain and localized flooding for areas south of
US-30. We`ll have to monitor trends in the system because a
further northward trend could yield greater impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
An upper-level ridge builds into the eastern CONUS next week as
ensembles key in on location and strength of this feature. The
594 dam 500mb heights will be centered over the Ohio Valley, but
500mb heights will actually be most anomalous over lower Great
Lakes. This will result in significant build up of heat and
humidity through all of next week (at least Monday-Friday).
There is high confidence in most of the area reaching multiple
days of temperatures > 90 and heat indices > 100, with >50%
chance of temperatures > 95 and heat indices > 105 especially
along and west of I-71 (particularly the Toledo-Findlay area).

Sometimes confidence is a bit lower due to thunderstorm chances
but with the positioning of the upper-level ridge, it`s
becoming less and less likely that storms develop at least
through Wednesday.

One thing to point out is that the impacts of heat tend to
increase with duration. Heat impacts will likely be at their
great Wednesday onward as we see consecutive days of extreme
heat and very little relief overnight (with lows in the low to
mid 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
The initial round of showers/storms has exited the area. A few
showers with isolated embedded lightning are moving southeast of
KTOL. The best chance of showers this evening will be at inland
terminals early in the TAF period, but do not anticipate
significant or prolonged impacts to cigs/vsbys. Will need to
keep an eye on a cluster of thunderstorms that are moving into
the Canadian waters of Lake Erie that may clip KERI after about
03Z. If they hold together, they may produce a period of non-VFR
conditions and gusty winds. Expect a period of non-VFR
conditions in patchy fog/mist generally at inland terminals late
tonight into early Friday morning with MVFR stratus possible at
KERI during the same timeframe. Confidence in how low vsbys get
is somewhat low at this point, but generally think vsbys will
largely be MVFR with localized pockets of IFR. VFR will return
after diurnal mixing develops by mid-morning, although
conditions will slowly deteriorate as rain lifts northeast into
the area Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Southern
terminals will likely experience MVFR conditions towards the end
of the TAF period.

Winds will diminish and become light and variable tonight with
more easterly flow developing at western terminals late Friday
afternoon into Friday evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR becoming more likely in
showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Main concern into this evening will be the threat for some stronger
wind gusts associated with thunderstorms. Otherwise, generally quiet
marine conditions are expected through the weekend and into early
next week, though we will need to monitor wind trends on Saturday as
a low pressure system slides east through the Ohio Valley. At this
point, not anticipating northeast winds to exceed 15 knots.
Following Saturday, mainly light east to southeast flow around 10
knots is expected through Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...15
MARINE...Kahn