Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

109
FXUS61 KCLE 061208
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
708 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is increasing for a few stronger thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon, particularly along and east of the I-71
corridor.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front
late Saturday morning and afternoon. Some storms could become
strong to severe, particularly along and east of the I-71
corridor between Noon and 5 PM.

2) Patches of dense fog will persist into mid-morning as a
stationary front remains in place across the area.

3) Above average temperatures will continue through Tuesday.
Temperatures will return back to or slightly below normal by
late Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal system moves through
the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing late Friday
night into Saturday morning to our west, associated with a pre-
frontal trough ahead of an advancing cold front. The latest
thinking is that this convection will redevelop late Saturday
morning along or near the I-71 corridor around Noon, and quickly
move east and exit the area by 4 to 5 PM. A somewhat favorable
low- level environment will be in place east of the I-71
corridor by early afternoon, with surface dew points expected to
reach or exceed 60F, SW bulk shear values of around 40 knots,
and clockwise-curved 0-1km hodographs yielding 150 to 200 m2/s2
of SRH. Anticipate storm mode to be mostly linear with surging
bowing segments at times given the bulk shear vectors being
nearly parallel to the convection. Thus, damaging wind and a
few embedded tornadoes are the primary hazards with any stronger
storms, aligning with the latest SPC SWODY2 slight risk.

These types of scenarios with nocturnal convection redeveloping
in the late morning and early afternoon are always tricky and thus,
confidence in a more widespread severe threat in our area remains
on the lower side at this time. Some additional limiting
factors for the event include poor mid-level lapse rates of
generally 6 C/km or less, low probabilities for MLCAPE to
exceed 1000 J/kg, and unfavorable hodographs above 1 km.

There will be some additional shower and isolated thunderstorm
activity along the immediate cold front in the late afternoon
and evening as it sweeps east through the area. However, in its
wake, the pre-frontal convection will result in a much less
favorable environment and limit the intensity of any showers or storms
that form along the front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The latest satellite and surface observations across the region
depict a stationary front draped roughly west to east near the
US-30 corridor early this morning, with widespread low clouds
and patches of dense fog. Will continue to monitor surface
observation trends over the next couple of hours to see if a
Dense Fog Advisory is needed, particularly in the vicinity of
the stationary front near the US-30 corridor. Fog should quickly
dissipate by mid to late morning as southerly winds increase in
response to a lifting warm front.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Above average temperatures appear poised to persist through
early next week with periods of mainly 60s and 70s. For the most
part, temperatures should remain below record highs, though
some sites may get close, especially on Monday when sunny skies
are expected. The latest model guidance indicates a stronger
frontal system will move east through the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes on Wednesday, ushering in another period of widespread
rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Will need to monitor QPF
trends with this system with a subtle, but persistent signal in
the ensemble guidance for rainfall amounts to exceed 1 inch.
Temperatures will fall back into the 30s and 40s behind the
front on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
The main aviation weather concern with this 12z TAF update will
be regarding the very low ceilings and areas of dense fog this
morning causing widespread IFR and LIFR conditions. THe overall
trend will favor a slow improvement to the ceilings and the fog
will lift out later this morning. By midday to early afternoon,
ceilings will lift up into the MVFR category. The fog will
quickly lift out after 15z through 18z as a warm front moves
northward across the lakeshore and Lake Erie. Partly cloudy to
mostly cloudy with MVFR to VFR ceilings will move in this
afternoon and continue through the end of the TAF period or
early Saturday morning. The one area that might see aviation
weather and additional impacts may be ERI late this evening
through early Saturday morning with ceilings lowering again and
fog rolling off Lake Erie. We will mention IFR to low end MVFR
conditions returning to ERI after 03z this evening.

Winds will start out light and variable with the stalled front
across northern Ohio this morning. Later this morning,
southerly winds will be 5 to 10 knots after the warm front lifts
through. Winds are expected to gradually increase from the
south- southwest tonight 8 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
possible towards the end of the TAF window.

Outlook...Occasional periods of rain showers and possible
thunderstorms on Saturday with non- VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
The most impactful weather concerns for Lake Erie with this marine
update will be the areas of dense fog over the western half of the
basin. This weather impact from the poor and very low visibilities
will likely continue through late this morning/midday before a warm
front lifts through this afternoon. That surging warm front will
likely help clear out the lake fog from south to north later
today.

Northeast winds of 10-15 knots across Lake Erie will continue
through much of today. The warm frontal passage across Lake Erie
late today will shift from a southeasterly to southerly flow 10 to
15 knots.  By tonight and into Saturday, winds will veer to become
southwesterly, increasing to 15-20 knots through Saturday evening. A
cold front will sweep across the lake from west to east Saturday
evening with westerly winds 10 to 15 knots Saturday evening through
Sunday night. A surface ridge of high pressure will build over the
Upper Ohio Valley and Lake Erie Saturday night through the end of
the weekend. The next weather system and developing area of low
pressure will track into the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday.
Winds will increase from the southwest 15 to 20 knots Sunday night
into Monday. The next potential cold front will drop down from north
to south across the Great Lakes late Monday through early Tuesday
morning.

An active and rather unsettled weather pattern will continue to
bring elevated wind speeds periodically across Lake Erie next week.
Although the lake remains mostly ice covered, the areas that are ice-
free and sizable breaks of the ice field will see periodically
waves increasings 2 to 5 feet. Currently the these larger breaks in
the lake ice have been over the western basin. As temperatures
remain above average the next couple of days, the ice thickness and
coverage will continue to slowly decrease. The slightly stronger
southwesterly winds on Saturday may also move around the ice this
weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ006-014-
     017-018-021>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ142>146-
     162>166.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77