Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

931
FXUS61 KCLE 050019
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
719 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added patchy dense fog to the forecast along the Lake Erie
shoreline this evening and to much of the area overnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled conditions with waves of low pressure and oscillating
stationary fronts through Friday night, then a sharp cold front
Saturday.

2) Period of dry weather Sunday and Monday followed by another
frontal system midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Patchy dense fog is occurring along the Lake Erie lakeshore
where temperatures are in the 30s with flow off Lake Erie. Look
for minimal improvement overnight as the rain spreads in, with
visibilities improving for a period of time. Fog is likely to
expand late tonight through as we see a break in showers and may
see areas of dense fog return. Added at least a mention of
patchy fog to the entire forecast area overnight and may need to
consider increasing the coverage.

Previous discussion...
Warm front is slowly drifting northward, and seeing this in
temperature increases at MNN which have eclipsed the 50F mark.
Expect further northward drift today, but still have a sharp
delineation between the airmasses across the CWA. As the front
drifts northward, expecting low level frontogenesis to follow suit,
and increasing POPs through the evening and overnight period
tonight. Some thunder is possible south of the boundary, but MUCAPE
is overall meager and expect the bulk of this activity to stay south
of the CWA. Still have forecast soundings favorable for fog tonight,
but this should be inhibited overall by rain, and will leave the fog
mentions as patchy. Thursday into Thursday night, expecting periodic
rain and isolated to scattered thunder with the stationary boundary
oscillating north and south within the CWA before finally lifting
north of Lake Erie Friday when temperatures increase significantly
area wide. Saturday is at least synoptically set up for convection,
and will wait for this time frame to make it into the SPC forecast
for the Day 3 period tonight, but with the warmer airmass and
dewpoint surge into the 55-60F range, this will probably be the most
likely day for thunderstorms with lower 70s possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
After frontal passage, Sunday temperatures fall off a bit but should
stay above normal, and a dry period with another warm up is expected
into early next week with a quieter pattern in place, that is,
without the waves of low pressure and stationary boundary. A robust
frontal system is looking more and more likely sometime in the
midweek time frame with potential for more thunderstorms, and then
sharply colder in its wake beyond the 7 day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
While some inland terminals are starting the TAF period as MVFR,
the trend will be for all sites to drop to LIFR overnight as the
low level inversion strengthens overhead. Ceilings will tend to
be 200-400 feet at most terminals with rain spreading in
between 02-06Z accompanied by IFR visibilities. Did not include
thunderstorms at any terminals at this time but there is a
chance at MFD/CAK overnight. A break in the rain late tonight
may support good coverage of dense fog and may need to trend
conditions down for several hours in the 08-14Z window.
Otherwise, two additional rounds of rain expected to move west
to east across the area, including between 13-22Z and then
another round between 20-00Z. Thunderstorms will be possible
again with the round of showers late Thursday afternoon and
could even result in a few wind gusts to 40 knots.

Winds will vary based on which side of a stationary boundary
they reside on with locations closer to the lake tending to be
northeasterly and locations south of the front out of the south
or southeast. A wind shift to the southwest is likely for most
locations Thursday afternoon with west/northwest flow late in
the period at CLE.

Outlook...Occasional periods of rain through Saturday will
bring additional non-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
East/northeast winds 10 knots or less will continue through
tonight before increasing to 10 to 20 knots as a warm front
lifts north towards the lake on Thursday. Winds will diminish to
less than 10 knots Thursday night and shift to the southeast on
Friday, however winds will become south/southwest and increase
to 10 to 20 knots as a cold front approaches from the west
Friday night and Saturday. There will likely be a period of
winds to 25 knots as the front crosses the lake Saturday
afternoon. Southwest winds will develop as a ridge briefly
builds over the lake towards the end of the weekend.

Lake Erie is still mostly ice covered, but above normal
temperatures will allow ice coverage to decay over the next
several days.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10/26
AVIATION...10
MARINE...15