Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

602
FXUS61 KCLE 241958
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
258 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits east tonight as low pressure pushes into the
region and impacts the area on Tuesday. A stronger low will drag a
cold front east across the region on Wednesday as it moves east
across the Great Lakes region. A trough will linger across the
Great Lakes through Friday with high pressure returning on
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions will come to an end tonight as high pressure exits to
the east ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Overnight lows
will settle in the mid 30s to low 40s tonight. The low pressure
system and its associated upper level shortwave will bring rain
showers to the region overnight tonight. Showers will increase in
coverage during the day on Tuesday with rainfall amounts generally
ranging between 0.25-0.50 inches, locally higher amounts of 0.50-
0.75 inches possible south of US-30. It will remain warm on Tuesday
with highs in the low to mid 50s and overnight lows in the upper 30s
to lower 40s on Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period will be driven by a potent and deepening low
pressure system traversing across the Great Lakes region. At the
surface, low pressure will drag a strong cold front east across the
forecast area through the day on Wednesday with lingering troughing
persisting behind the system through the end of the short term and
into the long term. Multiple hazards at play with this system
including synoptic rain transitioning to snow, lake effect
snowfall, and gusty winds.

Synoptic Rain/Snow:

Precipitation will remain as rain early in the day before
transitioning to a rain/snow mix Wednesday afternoon and eventually
all snow by Wednesday evening. Overall snowfall amounts through
Wednesday night of an inch or less will remain focused to the
primary snowbelt. Temperatures are expected to rapidly drop behind
the cold front which may lead to icy conditions on roadways.

Lake Effect Snow:

Snowfall will transition to lake effect snow Wednesday evening into
Thursday as 850mb temperatures fall into the -8 to -10C range. Mean
layer flow will begin as primarily southwesterly to westerly across
Lake Erie which should keep lake effect snow primarily offshore but
may begin impacting extreme northern Erie County PA. Flow will then
turn more westerly to northwesterly by Thursday morning as the upper
trough axis pushes east which will allow for lake effect snow to
shift inland across the primary snowbelt. Given increasing
confidence in 6 inches or more so snow have hoisted a Winter Storm
Watch for Erie and Crawford Counties in Pennsylvania from late
Wednesday night through Friday evening. Will continue to monitor
trends across Northeast Ohio for future headline issuance. Current
thinking is that heaviest snowfall will likely occur Thursday
afternoon and early evening with snowfall rates up to an inch per
hour. Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions may
impact busy Thanksgiving holiday travel.

Gusty winds:

By Wednesday morning and afternoon southwesterly winds and gusts
will increase areawide behind the cold front in the CAA regime.
Highest wind gusts to 40-45 mph will remain confined along the I-75
corridor Wednesday morning and early afternoon before elevated winds
and gusts spread east across the entire forecast area by Wednesday
evening. Locally higher wind gusts nearing 50 mph will be confined
to the lakeshore Wednesday night and continue on Thursday. Will keep
monitoring forecast trends as wind gusts will near Wind Advisory
criteria along the lakeshore. Gusty winds may cause blowing and
drifting snow adding to the hazardous travel conditions during the
Thanksgiving holiday.

Temperatures:

Behind the cold front overnight lows Wednesday night and Thursday
night will drop to the mid 20s. Elevated wind speeds will also lead
to minimum wind chill values to bottom out in the 10s Thursday
morning. Colder during the day on Thursday with highs in the low to
mid 30s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface troughing will linger across the eastern Great Lakes on
Friday which will keep some lake effect snow in place through Friday
evening. Drier air and high pressure will enter from the west Friday
night allowing for remaining lake effect snow to gradually diminish
and bring a brief window of dry conditions to the region. Dry weather
will be short lived as another low pressure system approaches the
Ohio Valley from the west Saturday into Sunday. There remains some
differences in long range model guidance in the arrival timing of
this system, but for now have chance PoPs in the forecast to end the
long term period. Highs remain in the low to mid 30s Friday and
Saturday before returning into the low to mid 40s by Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions with upper-level cirrus are observed areawide and
should continue through at least least the first half of
tonight. Should see clouds thicken/lower and rain overspread the
area as conditions deteriorate early Tuesday morning and
through the day. Ceilings and visibilities lower to MVFR from
south to north quickly followed by IFR conditions through
mainly the daylight hours. Light south winds of 10 knots or less
are generally expected, though stronger winds with downsloping
are expected near KERI as gusts up to 20 knots occur Tuesday
afternoon.

Outlook...Rain and low ceilings/visibilities will persist
areawide through Wednesday. Lake effect snow Wednesday evening
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania, persisting
through Friday evening. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots will be
possible Wednesday, with wind gusts up to 40 knots near the Lake
Erie shoreline Wednesday through Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure departs to the east today and tonight with southerly
flow to 10-15 knots on Tuesday. A deepening low pressure moves into
the northern Great Lakes region, with a strong cold front quickly
moving east across Lake Erie Wednesday morning. Southwest to west
winds will rapidly increase to 30-40 knots with gusts up to 45 knots
on Wednesday behind the frontal passage and persisting through
Thursday night. Waves as high as 8-12 feet may be possible
especially east of The Islands. A broad Gale Watch will continue
for this period. Low water is expected over the western basin at
times through this same time period. The critical mark is 5 inches
below the low water datum, and latest model projections have a 70%
chance of the water level at Toledo reaching 24 inches below low
water datum.

Wind speeds gradually diminish below gale-force winds Thursday night
into Friday morning as winds become northwesterly. Wind speeds
continue to gradually diminish with conditions improving to less
than 15 knots and 4 feet by Saturday morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Friday
     evening for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday night
     for LEZ142>149-162>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders