Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

209
FXUS61 KCLE 051818
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
218 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) One last dry day and continued warming.

2.) Showers and storm chances return Friday night through early Saturday
night.

3.) Upper level ridge builds in through the middle of next week with
more summer-like warmth.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A bit more warming today with return flow into the region and 850mb
temperatures climbing into the upper teens. With sun and a dry
ground, this will translate to widespread upper 80s across the
region ahead of a cold front that will be approaching from the west
for the first rain chances in several days beginning Friday
night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Flow aloft will become cyclonic tonight with a surface prefrontal
trough moving through, sparking the first chances for showers and a
few isolated thunderstorms in several days. During the overnight
period, instability will be hard to come by, and elevated, making
thunderstorms not expected on a scale more than isolated despite an
increase in the low level flow. Different story into Saturday with
some daytime heating aiding in the development of instability that
will end up closer to the surface. Some risk for severe
thunderstorms here with 0-6km bulk shear around 30kts to go with
around 1000J/kg CAPE and increases in surface/low level dewpoints.
In the end, damaging winds will be the greatest threat for Saturday
with the cold front coming through late Saturday into Saturday
night, taking the POPs with it by Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Quick return to upper level ridging early next week with
temperatures on the rise again and a two day dry period before
getting back into POPs midweek with another trough aloft. Heat will
begin to build with another upper level ridge into the end of next
week with what may be considered the first hot and humid weather of
the season as dewpoints could eclipse the 70F mark.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will persist through 00Z with moistening of the
atmosphere and chances for showers and/or thunderstorms
returning tonight through Saturday. Chances of precipitation
will arrive near TOL between 00-03Z but not expected to impact
additional terminals for several hours as storm motion is to
the northeast. Showers are expected to spread east and be near
CLE and ERI towards 08Z. Can not entirely rule out a
thunderstorm tonight but potential is low. Chances of showers
will move south with time across the forecast area. More
uncertainty lies with where and when re-development will occur
on Saturday afternoon. It looks as thought additional showers
and thunderstorms will fire across the area after 18Z and will
need to be monitored for IFR visibilities in heavy rain a gusty
winds. Timing will need to be refined as we get a better handle
on timing.

In addition, southwest winds will be breezy today with gusts of
20-25 knots. Winds gusts are expected to generally drop off
tonight as a 35 knot low level jet moves overhead. This will be
close to low level wind sheer criteria but generally just under.
Winds will increase with height through 2K feet. Surface wind
gusts will resume on Saturday morning with gusts to 25 knots
possible.

Outlook...Limited non-VFR in a cluster of weakening showers and
thunderstorms tonight into early Saturday. Non-VFR possible
again Saturday afternoon and evening as thunderstorms develop
along and ahead of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds generally remain between 5-15 knots through
this evening before increasing to the 15-20 tonight range
tonight through Saturday morning. A cold front will move across
the lake on Saturday evening allowing for winds to turn
northerly while decreasing to 10 knots or less by Sunday
morning as high pressure builds overhead. Light and variable
flow is expected as the high remains in control on Sunday. Winds
will favor an easterly component Monday while remaining in the
5-15 knots range ahead of an approaching low pressure system
that will enter the Upper Ohio Valley by mid-week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...10
MARINE...13