Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

361
FXUS61 KCLE 040650
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
250 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Heat Advisory has been issued for all of northern Ohio through
Saturday evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity will continue today followed by
temperatures not as hot Sunday into next week.


2) Scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms expected
this weekend through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The "heat dome" or upper level ridge of high pressure that has
brought so much heat and humidity this past week is almost done
impacting our weather across the region. We will still have some
lingering heat and humidity to contend with today with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Our heat index values will be around
100 degrees, especially across northern Ohio. We have extended
heat headlines with a Heat Advisory for today into this
evening for all of northern Ohio. High temperatures will be
closer to seasonable warm levels for early July starting Sunday
through early next week in the lower to middle 80s. High
temperatures may creep back up into the middle to upper 80s
later next week. Overnight low temperatures will be slightly
more comfortable next week in the lower to middle 60s away from
the immediate lakeshore.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The active storm track has shifted southward back into the
lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region thanks to the
"heat dome" sliding away from our area. This means that we will
see several days of unsettled and stormy weather this weekend
into early next week. There is a weak mid level disturbance
riding over the top of the ridge into northwest Ohio this
morning with some scattered convection. The expectation is for
this area of general convection to move eastward through the
morning hours and weaken. It will leave out some outflow
boundaries which new convection will develop around this
afternoon and evening. Given the deep layer shear and some
healthy downward CAPE values, there is a marginal risk for a few
strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts later today.

A weak mid level short wave trough will approach the area from
the west Sunday and Monday. This trough will keep a higher chance
for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through
Monday. Given the very moist airmass in place with PWATs of 1.5
to 2 inches any thunderstorm that does develop will be capable
of producing locally heavy rainfall. There is a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 4) for Excessive rainfall both today and Sunday.

High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and lower Great
Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday with lower rain chances. A
broad upper level trough pattern may develop towards the end of
next week over the Great Lakes region with a weak cold front
moving through late Thursday. Some higher POPs will return back
in the forecast by then.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
There may be some patchy non-VFR vsby in mist early this morning
through 12 or 13z at a few sites, otherwise the main concern
through the TAFs continues to be convection. A cluster of
convection extends from southern MI across northern IN and into
central IL as of 6z. This cluster is moving east-northeast at
about 25kt. It is on a weakening trend, but may still bring TS
to TOL/FDY early this morning and perhaps a shower to ERI later
this morning. Given low confidence currently have PROB30 groups
in for TSRA at TOL and FDY, though may need to AMD if the
activity looks to hold together. Shifting to this afternoon and
evening, the early morning cluster of storms is expected to
leave an outflow boundary that will be a focus for renewed
thunderstorm development this afternoon farther southeast. Have
this activity included at CAK as a PROB30 and at YNG as a TEMPO.
Will also need to watch MFD, but confidence is <30%. Additional
storms will likely develop farther west or southwest and drift
towards TOL, FDY, and MFD this evening. Confidence is low in
impacts to specific terminals so handled with PROB30 groups to
give an idea of timing, and will hone in more as we can through
the day. It is currently more likely that convection remains
south and west of CLE and ERI this afternoon and evening, so do
not have an TSRA in those TAFs at this time.

Winds will start south-southwest today, but will shift more
westerly through the afternoon and even gain a northerly
component closer to Lake Erie. Nearly calm winds early this
morning will increase to 6-12kt during the day. Some stronger
thunderstorms can produce brief and sporadic wind gusts over
40kt this afternoon and evening.

Outlook...Weak low pressure and a cold front move across the
region Sunday and Monday, bringing occasional showers and
thunderstorms. Non-VFR ceilings and visibility also possible
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
West-southwest winds of 5-10kt this morning shift a bit more
west-northwest this afternoon and evening as a weak cold front
crosses the lake. Winds gradually turn east-northeast tonight
into Sunday, and increase to around 15kt Sunday afternoon and
evening as weak low pressure approaches from the west. Winds
then persist out of the northeast early this week as low
pressure slowly tracks through the upper Ohio Valley. High
pressure builds in towards midweek. The current forecast keeps
winds in the 10-15kt range and waves in the 1-3 foot range
Sunday night through Monday night. Some guidance suggests a
period of winds to around 20kt is possible Sunday night into
Monday as low pressure makes its closest pass. If these trends
continue we will need to nudge the wind and wave forecast up,
and may get close to needing Small Craft/Beach Hazards headlines
between the Islands and Willowick for a period of time. Any
thunderstorms over the lake over the next few days can bring
briefly higher winds and waves.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan