Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

763
FXUS61 KCLE 200911
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
411 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The severe weather risk has diminished across the area and
generally expect widespread rain early this morning. Winds
along the lakeshore of NE OH and NW PA have trended a bit higher
for this morning and afternoon so have expanded the Wind
Advisory through northern Erie County, PA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds are expected behind a cold front today.

2) More seasonable temperatures and potential for accumulating snow
return to the area this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Widespread morning rain will lift northeast out of the area
early this morning as a cold front begins to move east into the
local area. The tightened pressure gradient and southerly flow
in the warm sector will result in potentially gusty winds due to
downsloping along the lakeshore of NW PA and there could be
periodic gusts to 35 to 45 mph early this morning. Winds will
increase behind the front and expect peak southwest wind gusts
of 40 to 50 mph along/west of I-71 and along the lakeshore as
the best forcing moves across the area this afternoon into early
this evening. A Wind Advisory remains in place for this area of
concern from 7 AM to 7 PM today and have expanded the advisory
east along the remainder of the lakeshore to include northern
Ashtabula and Erie counties. Opted to start the advisory at
09Z/4 AM in northern Erie County PA to account for the potential
for stronger winds due to downsloping ahead of the cold front.
Confidence in the early morning wind gusts for NW PA is a little
bit lower than this afternoon, but probabilistic HREF data and
several high res models support the expansion in the Wind
Advisory. The main limiting factor could be stratiform rainfall
preventing mixing, although relatively dry lower levels due to
downsloping could allow mixing to be a bit more efficient. Winds
may remain elevated in the 30 to 40 mph range primarily along
the lakeshore of NE OH/NW PA through Midnight, but largely
expect winds to diminish tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Temperatures will follow a non-diurnal trend today with temps
decreasing behind the cold front during the day today. Light
lake effect rain showers are likely across NW PA and possibly NE
OH late this afternoon before transitioning to light snow
showers through much of Saturday as temperatures decrease this
evening and upper troughing lingers over the lower Great Lakes.
There may be a very brief period of light freezing rain across
the higher terrain of NW PA, but impacts are not anticipated.

The better shot of cold air will arrive as a developing low
pressure system moves east across the Great Lakes on Sunday.
Temperatures are expected to return to near normal values with
widespread snow likely across the majority of the area Sunday.
Snow accumulations will vary across the area with the highest
totals anticipated across the eastern half of the area. There`s
still some uncertainty in the QPF and resulting snowfall totals
due to relatively low confidence in the placement of a
developing coastal low, but there could be impacts due to
slippery roadways and reduced visibilities. Strong cold air
advection/northwest flow behind this system will likely result
in lake effect snow showers through at least Monday. The highest
probability of more impactful accumulations will be across the
typical snowbelt areas of NE OH and NW PA, but will need to keep
an eye on the entire CWA since most deterministic guidance
suggests lake effect snow from the upstream Great Lakes
occurring across most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Shield of rain/decaying thunderstorms will move across the
region tonight with IFR effects expected as it does so.
Occluded/cold front moves through in the wake of this
precipitation with ceilings improving to MVFR, and even
scattering out to VFR for a few hours possibly in the afternoon
Friday. Clouds move back in with MVFR, and possibly light snow
for CLE/CAK east for a few hours after 21Z in the cold air
advection and returning low level moisture. Winds will also
increase with gusts 30-40kts in the wake of the front through
much of the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook...Expect periods of non-VFR conditions throughout the
weekend, with the snow returning Sunday and Monday enhanced by a
vigorous coastal low pressure system exiting the Mid Atlantic.
High pressure will build across the region Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
An occluded low pressure system over Lake Michigan will slowly
move east today, extending a cold front across the lake this
afternoon. Southwest winds will accelerate on the lake to 25 to
30 kts with the frontal passage and a 45 kt low level jet
moving overhead. With temperatures trying to get into the 40s
and the strong southwest winds, ice will continue to weaken
across the lake and the ice fields will shift today. Any ice
floes will be hazardous to folks on Lake Erie and may block or
close established shipping channels. People are urged to stay
off Lake Erie today.

The low pressure system will devolve into a trough over the
region on Saturday and southwest flow will fall to around 10 to
15 kts. A strong low pressure system will move up the East Coast
on Sunday into Monday and enhance the pressure gradient of the
trough, allowing for 15 to 20 kts of northwest flow on Sunday
and Monday. A surface ridge will enter for Tuesday and winds
will back to the southwest around 10 kts.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for OHZ003-006>012-017>020-027>030-036-037-089.
PA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Sefcovic