Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

073
FXUS61 KCLE 171203
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
703 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above average temperatures expected through Friday with seasonal
temperatures this weekend into early next week.

2) Series of low pressure system will pass through the region
through the weekend bringing rain showers on Wednesday and Thursday
night, and possible snow showers this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Temperatures through Friday will remain above average due to upper
level ridging over the eastern CONUS and persistent west to
southwesterly flow over the region. Wednesday will be the warmest
day of the week with high probability of temperatures hitting the
low to mid 60s during the day. This will be in part due to a warm
front moving south to north across the area ahead of an approaching
low pressure system. Temperatures will moderate slightly behind the
low and rain showers on Wednesday, but highs will stay above average
in the 50s. Another low pressure system will pass through the Great
Lakes region on Friday sweeping a cold front that will drop
temperatures to be more seasonal. Highs will be in the 40s on
Saturday before dropping into the 30s for Sunday and for the start
of next week.

Additional impacts include potential ice jams along rivers and
streams throughout the region. Accompanied by the rain showers on
Wednesday, there is a possibility of seeing a minor river response
as frozen rivers begin to deteriorate and break apart. Will continue
to monitor the rivers over the next few days for potential flooding
concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Rain showers return to the region on Wednesday as a low pressure
system enters into the western Great Lakes. A warm front will lift
north through the region Wednesday morning followed by a weak cold
front Wednesday afternoon into the evening. There is higher
probability of rain showers along the warm front as it pushes into
the northern portion of the CWA as that will be where the strongest
frontogenesis will be. The cold front will enter from the west in
the afternoon and bring more widespread potential for rainfall.
Generally, QPF is around a 0.10" to 0.20" for the majority of the
area. The highest amounts will be in northeastern Ohio and
northwestern Pennsylvania as they could see 0.30" to 0.40". There
will be a minor amounts of CAPE (250-400 J/kg) with this system
so can`t rule out the possibility of a rumble of thunder or two
during the afternoon. Winds will be gusty during the day
supported by a 40-50 knot LLJ across the region. Gusts will be
around 30 to 40mph with the strongest winds expected in western
Ohio during the afternoon with frontal passage.

Another chance for precipitation will be Thursday evening into
Friday as another low moves northeast from the mid-Mississippi
Valley into the Great Lakes. Rain showers will begin late Thursday
evening as a warm front passes through and will be followed quickly
by the cold front. Any precipitation should end by Friday
afternoon/early evening. As colder air moves in behind the system,
any lingering rain showers will change over to a rain snow mix, then
over to snow completely later in the evening given that
precipitation is still occurring. Snow chances will return again on
Sunday as an upper level low moves through the Great Lakes region
with possible lake enhanced snow showers behind the system to begin
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Fog across Central Ohio has expanded north into CAK this
morning with LIFR ceilings also in place at YNG. Most other
terminals are experiencing MVFR visibilities with a broken cloud
deck at 10-15K feet. Expect visibilities and ceilings to
gradually improve this morning, taking a little longer in the
east. ERI is likely to maintain a stratus deck, initially MVFR
but expected to fall to IFR/LIFR for a period of time this
afternoon. A stationary front is expected to settle south across
Lake Erie with low ceilings and possibly fog coming in off the
lake to ERI. There is uncertainty in how low visibilities will
be with this but can not rule out dense fog. Otherwise look for
MVFR ceilings to fill in from west to east tonight as a warm
front lifts north into the area. Looks like terminals in Ohio
will lower to MVFR prior to 12z with rain expanding into TOL
prior to 12Z and CLE after 12Z.

Winds will tend to be southerly today except shifting to
east/northeast at ERI. Winds will increase into Wednesday
morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Wednesday and Thursday
night into Friday in rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds on Lake Erie will shift out of the northeast this
afternoon. Easterly winds increase to 10-20 knots tonight, then veer
to southwesterly at 15-20 knots on Wednesday as a warm front lifts
north across Lake Erie. Another enhanced window of winds is expected
Thursday night into Friday as easterly winds of 15-20 knots become
southwesterly at 20-25 knots with the passage of a cold front.

Multiple periods with elevated winds along with much above normal
temperatures across the region this week will continue to rot the
ice with ice floes expected. Shore ice may break off and any
available shipping channels may be closed. It is important for
people to stay off the ice this week or risk getting stranded. In
addition, the warmer air overspreading the cold lake will result in
areas of fog this afternoon and on Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10