Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

496
FXUS61 KCLE 130014
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
814 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in strong southwesterly winds tomorrow has increased
enough to upgrade the entire area to a High Wind Warning from early
Friday morning through Friday evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Damaging winds may blow down trees and power lines, causing
widespread power outages on Friday. Scattered rain/snow showers
are also possible.

2) A strong low pressure system moves through the area Sunday
into Monday, bringing rain, snow, and windy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1:
Deepening low pressure will glide east across the Lower Great
Lakes tonight through Friday. The low will initially lift a warm
front across the local area overnight tonight. Light snow
showers late tonight will eventually transition to all rain by
Friday afternoon behind the warm front. Aloft a strong LLJ
characterized by 850mb winds 60-70 knots across western zones
and 40-50 knots across eastern zones will move overhead early
Friday morning. Latest guidance continues to show mixing heights
to almost 850mb which would certainly mix down the strong LLJ to
the surface, particularly in any showers. Hi-res models have
been persistent in showing a large swath of the forecast area
with upwards of 50 kt (58+ mph) wind gusts through Friday along
and ahead of a cold front associated with the low pressure
system. As such, the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High
Wind Warning across the entire forecast area through tomorrow
evening. Winds will begin to diminish behind the frontal passage
tomorrow night.

KEY MESSAGE #2:
High pressure briefly returns on Saturday before another low
pressure system approaches the region Sunday into early next week.
The low will lift a warm front north across the region during the
day on Sunday with snow showers transitioning to all rain behind the
front. Additionally, highs on Sunday will warm into the mid to upper
60s. Warm weather doesn`t last long as the low pushes northeastward
and drags a cold front east across the region on Sunday night into
Monday. Precipitation will change back over to snow with the frontal
passage. Can`t rule out another period of breezy conditions early next
week with this low pressure system. Current NBM probabilities of
wind gusts reaching Wind Advisory criteria (46+ mph) generally range
between 40-70% across the forecast area. Will need to keep an eye on
this timeframe for any potential wind headlines.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A strong low pressure approaches from the Upper Midwest for
Friday. The main concern for the taf period will be very strong
winds developing on Friday. Southerly winds will begin to
increase between 09-12Z with initial gusts to 30-35 knots,
before ramping up considerably with sustained winds of 28-30
knots and gusts of 40-50 knots. Winds will be southerly to start
shift to the southwest by early afternoon and then west by late
afternoon. Clouds are generally expected to be VFR with the
possible exception being at ERI where showers are the most
likely on Friday. A quick band of snow may be possible with the
warm late Friday morning, followed by rain showers Friday
afternoon transitioning back to snow showers later in the
afternoon.

Early Friday morning, there is a 2-4 hour window in Northwest
Ohio where low level wind sheer could be possible. Surface
winds are generally expected to increase concurrent with a
strong low level jet aloft and tightening surface pressure
gradient ahead of low pressure moving into the Upper Great
Lakes, though surface stability could slow down the development
of the strongest gusts.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely to return in rain/snow showers
Saturday night into Sunday. Non-VFR may linger in scattered
rain/snow showers on Monday with lake effect snow possible
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Current round of Small Craft Advisories will expire at 4 PM but
a Gale Warning is already in effect for Friday and Friday night.
Southerly winds increase rapidly on Friday morning with gales
beginning between 12-15Z on the western basin and 17-20Z on the
eastern basin. Winds could gust as high as 50 knots during this
time with winds shifting from southerly to southwesterly with
the passage of a cold front during the afternoon. The strong
winds are likely to result in low water conditions on the
western basin with water levels falling as much as 1-2 feet
below low water datum. A Low Water Advisory is already in
effect from 8 AM Friday to 4 AM Saturday with the lowest
conditions expected Friday evening. With most of the ice gone on
Lake Erie, waves of 8-12 feet are possible with the Gale.

While conditions are forecast to rapidly improve on Saturday as
high pressure moves east across the region, another strong low
pressure system is forecast to track northeast across Lower
Michigan and Lake Huron on Monday. This will present another
window of very strong winds and gales remain possible. A very
strong cold front will move northeast across Lake Erie during
the day on Monday. The track and strength of this system will be
monitored over the coming days with low water conditions
possible again on Monday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
     High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
PA...High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 8 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for
     LEZ142>147-162>167.
     Low Water Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Gale Warning from noon Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ148-
     149-168-169.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...10