Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

524
FXUS61 KCLE 312338
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
738 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence has increased that a cluster of strong to severe
storms with gusty winds, some hail, and heavy rain will move
west to east across the area late this afternoon and evening.
Another round of storms with some severe weather potential and a
better potential for heavy rain and localized flooding is still
expected tonight. The rest of the forecast and messaging remains
the same through the weekend, as additional rounds of showers
and storms are expected.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will sweep across
the region late this afternoon and evening. The main impact will
be gusty winds and heavy rainfall, but hail and a couple of
brief tornadoes are possible too.

2) A second round of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall is expected tonight. Heavy rainfall is the bigger
concern with this overnight round, with widespread amounts of 1
to 1.25 inches possible through Wednesday, and locally higher
where training occurs. This could cause flooding of urban, low-
lying, and other flood prone areas.

3) Lower impact system Thursday and Friday, with occasional
showers and storms and a return of very warm temperatures.

4) A stronger system brings a greater potential for severe
storms and heavy rainfall late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1:
Quasi-zonal flow continues across the southern Great Lakes
region this afternoon overtop a flat mid/upper ridge over the SE
CONUS. An active stationary front remains draped across Lower
Michigan and southern Ontario along the northern edge of this
ridge, and this boundary continues to serve as the focus for a
series of shortwaves and associated weak surface lows.

One shortwave and associated mid-level speed max, characterized
by 700 mb flow over 50 knots, is currently crossing northern
Indiana and SW Lower Michigan. This shortwave and its associated
40+ knot low-level jet is driving a Mesoscale Convective System
(MCS) that will move into NW Ohio by 19Z. The downstream
environment across northern Ohio and western PA has sufficiently
destabilized this afternoon to support severe weather due to a
rapid uptick in shear expected as the wave approaches. Current
mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, with around 1500
J/Kg of SBCAPE, beneath a stout EML plume (7 to 7.5 C/Km mid-
level lapse rates). Westerly Deep layer shear will increase to
40-50 knots ahead of the wave, with vectors oriented
perpendicular to the north-south oriented line of convection on
the front edge of the MCS, and this combined with the moderate
instability will support forward propagation of the MCS late
this afternoon and evening and associated wind risk. PWATs of 1
to 1.2 inches (90th percentile of climatology) will also lead to
brief heavy rain as the complex progresses across the region.
While wind and heavy rain are the biggest hazards, low-level
(0-1 Km) shear increasing to 20-30 knots and effective SRH
increasing to 250-300 m2/s2 could support a couple of brief
tornadoes embedded within the main line or with any semi
discrete cells that develop ahead of it. The aforementioned
steep mid-level lapse rates also support occasional large hail,
especially with any semi discrete cells. The overall highest
severe weather risk appears to be east of I-71 this evening,
where higher instability has built up the past few hours. This
is especially the case for damaging winds given higher low-level
lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/Km leading to higher DCAPE in NE Ohio
and NW PA.

In terms of timing, the convection should reach the I-75
corridor by 20Z, the I-71 and I-77 corridors by 22Z, and should
be over NW PA by 23 to 00Z.

KEY MESSAGE #2:
After a short break during the mid evening hours, the shortwave
and associated surface low exiting east across the eastern Great
Lakes tonight will start to push the stationary front SE across
the region as a cold front. Another line of convection is
expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front as large
scale forcing for ascent increases. Shear will remain moderate
to high overnight with the presence of an enhanced low-level
jet, so a few severe storms are possible (mainly wind and a
brief tornado or two) where surges and bows occur in the QLCS.
However, the atmosphere will be pretty worked over from the
earlier evening convection, and this combined with the overnight
timing should limit the severe weather threat.

The bigger concern overnight is heavy rainfall and flash
flooding. The front will slow in forward progress as the night
progresses and will become aligned parallel to the W to WSW low
and mid-level flow. This combined with the 35-40 knot low-
level jet will lead to training convection within the
QLCS/backbuilding. On top of that, PWATs will increase to over
1.25 inches (near the daily max of sounding climatology) with
Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) in the 90th to 97th
percentile, and this all combined with a skinny CAPE profile all
points to swaths of very heavy rainfall and efficient rainfall
rates. A widespread 1 to 1.25 inches of rain is likely through
Wednesday morning, but locally higher totals of 2 to 3 inches+
are possible where training occurs. This could lead to flash
flooding of low-lying, urban, and other prone areas, as well as
potential river flooding if enough falls in a basin.

Much of the area will try to dry out Wednesday as the front
temporarily sags into southern or central Ohio and Canadian high
pressure over the northern Great Lakes tries to influence at
least the north half of our region. However, a swath of showers
will continue north of the frontal boundary where isentropic
ascent will be persistent, so the southern and central counties
(south of I-80) may hold onto off and on light rain much of the
day. If the front is slightly farther north or south, than the
location of the swath of showers will change. The overall
impact and message Wednesday is that it will be a cold and damp
day, with highs held into the mid 40s to low 50s. Showers will
definitely increase Wednesday evening and Wednesday night as
the front slowly lifts back north.

KEY MESSAGE #3:
The next mid/upper shortwave ejecting across the Plains Thursday
will spawn another surface low that will lift into the northern
Great Lakes by Friday morning. The front should continue lifting
north Thursday morning ahead of this developing low, so most of
the leftover showers should be north of the region by midday.
This will set up a mainly dry and very warm afternoon in the
warm sector. As the low tracks from the northern Great Lakes
through northern Ontario Friday, the front will sag back SE as a
cold front. However, it is looking increasingly likely that the
boundary will stay NW of the region as it stalls in response to
yet another developing low in the Plains. This points to
slightly higher coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms
Friday compared to Thursday, but any heavy rain or severe threat
should be isolated, so lower impact than the mid week
convection. Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s to near 80
Thursday and Friday.

KEY MESSAGE #4:
The next surface low mentioned above developing in the Plains
Friday will lift across the Great Lakes Saturday and early
Sunday. This low will be stronger and will be the final wave to
kick this old frontal boundary out of the region as it`s
associated with a strong mid/upper trough digging into the Great
Lakes. Given the better dynamics and strength of this system,
severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are possible late
Saturday and Saturday night, depending on the timing. This will
be monitored. Much colder air will settle into the region behind
this system for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Highly convective environment this evening into tonight with
rounds of TSRA expected for a few more hours before a cold front
finally sinks southward across northern Ohio and northwestern
Pennsylvania. Expect observations to fluctuate in and out of
showers and storms. As far as convective winds go, FDY has the
best chances for strong wind gusts to 40kts or higher as that
area has not seen much in the way of activity. Further north and
east, expecting gusts to be limited to the 30-35kt range in
storms as the surface air is a bit more stable now after the
first complex earlier this evening. After the cold front comes
through, ceilings to drop to IFR and remain there pretty much
through the duration of the TAF. Rain will be off and on
Wednesday in these low ceilings, so restrictions through much of
the forecast should ultimately be expected one way or another.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and low ceilings Wednesday
afternoon. Additional periods of non-VFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday, though
appears most likely on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots will persist across Lake
Erie into tonight. Though winds may occasionally gust up to 25
knots, believe most of the higher winds should be confined along the
nearshore given the cold lake surface temperatures. Thus, have opted
against a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Winds will briefly
shift towards the north behind a cold front on Wednesday, 10 to 15
knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots and gradually becoming east to
northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. May need a brief Small
Craft Advisory Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the
onshore flow near 20 knots. Winds will return to the southwest as
the cold front lifts back north as a warm front late Thursday into
Friday, 15 to 20 knots.

Another item of concern this afternoon and evening will be the
threat of strong winds greater than 40 knots associated with a line
of thunderstorms moving west to east across Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Kahn