Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

904
FXUS61 KCLE 282326
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
626 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast remains generally on track. Low temperatures have trended a
little colder on Thursday night and Friday night with light to calm
winds. Wind chills have therefore trended warmer. Temperatures
have also trended slightly down over the weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Very cold weather continues through the weekend, including the
potential for record low temperatures at some locations on Thursday
night and Friday night. A threat of cold exposure and damage to
infrastructure will continue.

2) Light snow is possible in the snowbelt region of Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania overnight into Thursday morning and may
result in minor travel impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for portions of Northwest
and North Central Ohio tonight with wind chill values as low as
-16 overnight. The wind chill remains below zero at most
 locations this afternoon while high temperatures range from
 8-14 degrees. Southwest winds are gusting as high as 20 mph
 this afternoon but will drop to 5 to 10 mph tonight. Some cloud
 and even chances of precipitation will tend to keep low
 temperatures tonight above freezing in the snowbelt region
 while lows in the Advisory area drop to between zero and 5
 below.

Strong high pressure over the Upper Midwest will expand across the
southern Great Lakes Region Thursday night through Friday night.
While cloud cover remains somewhat in question, the potential
exists for maximized radiational cooling where winds are nearly
calm and a deep snowpack remains across the area. Temperatures
continue to gradually trend downward in Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania for Thursday night/Friday morning where
confidence is higher in a good window of mostly clear skies.
Record lows are in the forecast at several locations in the
east. If we do experience ideal cooling conditions, actual lows
could end up several degrees cooler in valley and interior
locations than what is forecast but this will depend on the
window of clearing. Scattered to broken mid level cloud may be
a factor across Northwest Ohio and temperatures have trended
slightly up in NW Ohio. Very cold conditions are expected again
Friday night as a ridge remains oriented across the area at the
surface. The actual temperature forecast remains dependent on
the pressure gradient and degree of cloud cover. Low clouds are
only expected to be scattered but could have some degree of high
level cloud, depending on the evolution of the upper level
trough digging south into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The
actual low temperatures will be more of a concern on Friday and
Saturday night with lesser impacts from the wind/wind chill.
Will continue to evaluate the temperature forecast over the
coming days and additional Cold Weather Advisories may be
needed. While temperatures have trended slightly down over the
weekend, we do expect gradual improvement early next week. While
temperatures remain below normal through the extended forecast,
highs do approach 30 degrees by Wednesday.

Impacts from the cold continue to be a concern, both to persons
spending time outdoors, and also to infrastructure with the
prolonged stretch of cold conditions. The extended stretch of cold
weather, with sub-zero values heading into the weekend, could result
in increased infrastructure problems such as burst pipes and
dead car batteries. People need to continue to limit time
outdoors and wear protective clothing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
While the sun has been out across much of northern Ohio today, a
light band of lake effect snow is focused over Lake Erie towards Lake
Ontario. A trough, both at the surface and aloft will swing
southeast across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Flow will veer off
Lake Erie this evening while moisture increases and expect to see
lake enhanced snow showers push into the snowbelt. Light
accumulations are possible of generally two inches or less through
Thursday morning. Subsidence increases upstream rather quickly on
Thursday and expect to see diminishing snow showers and even
clouds. The exception would be if a band persists off Lake
Huron into Pennsylvania but given the dry air this contribution
looks limited.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Predominantly VFR conditions are being observed across the area
this evening and expected to persist through this TAF period.
The exception to this will be across portions of Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania due to a trough axis pivoting over
the area and lake effect snow showers possibly returning
tonight. In these snow showers, periods of IFR visibilities are
possible, especially at KERI. Across the remainder of the area,
ceilings will generally linger between 3-5kft, although some
brief period of ceilings less than 3kft are possible on
Thursday.

Current southwest winds of 5-10 knots will gradually become
northwesterly at 5-10 knots by Thursday afternoon. Near the
end of this period, winds are expected to become light and
variable.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through this weekend with the
exception of diurnal low-end VFR or MVFR ceilings and transient
light snow showers. A more widespread non-VFR threat may arrive
on Monday in snow showers with a clipper.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions are expected into early next week with winds
less than 20 knots. Southwest flow this evening will shift back
towards the west to northwest behind a cold front tonight. Winds
will then diminish to 10 knots or less on Saturday as arctic high
pressure builds in from the west. Winds will increase slightly into
the 10 to 15 knot range by Sunday, before shifting back towards the
southwest on Monday ahead of the next system, 10 to 15 knots.

The arctic airmass and relatively light wind field across the region
will allow ice on Lake Erie to further expand and thicken through
the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low temperatures are possible on Friday and Saturday. Here
are the daily record low minimum temperatures for January 30 and 31:

Date    Toledo      Mansfield    Cleveland    Akron        Youngstown   Erie
01-30   -10(2019)   -10(2019)    -4(1873)     -6(1965)     -8(1965)     -4(2019)
01-31   -10(2019)    -7(2019)    -5(1971)     -5(1948)     -9(1948)     -6(1899)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for OHZ006-008-
     009-017>019-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Kahn