Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

930
FXUS61 KCLE 211134
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
734 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Not much has changed with this forecast update. We are still
expecting an unsettled and stormy Memorial Day Weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below average temperatures will linger through today and
tonight.

2) Multiple rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms will
impact the holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall with totals of 1-1.5
inches may result in localized flooding.

3) Summer-like temperatures will return by the middle of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cool Canadian high pressure system will build down across the
Great Lakes today into tonight from southern Ontario. Sky
conditions will remain mostly cloudy to partly cloudy due to
high and mid level clouds streaming in from the Lower Ohio
Valley. A cool and brisk northeast flow today will keep high
temperatures in the lower to middle 60s for most of the area.
Overnight low temperatures tonight will drop back down into the
middle to upper 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The beginning of a wet and unsettled weather pattern will start
to impact the region later on Friday. A stalled frontal boundary
located near the Lower Ohio Valley will start to lift northward
as a warm front on Friday. Rain chances in the form of scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase from south to
north Friday afternoon and evening. Likely to definite POPs will
overspread the area Friday night. Isolated thunder will be
possible but no organized severe convection is expected at this
time. High POPs between 80 and 100 percent is expected to
continue into Saturday across the area. High POPs will lingering
into Saturday evening with a gradual tapering off of rain
chances from west to east during the overnight. A surface trough
will linger over the region Sunday and Monday with scattered to
likely POPs Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Overall
rainfall totals Friday through Monday will average between 1
and 1.5 inches with isolated amounts up to 2 inches possible.
This period of heavy rainfall may lead to some isolated
localized flooding or elevated water rises on area streams and
rivers. Temperatures this weekend into Memorial Day will
eventually climb into the 70s to near 80 degrees.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
By middle of next week, an upper level ridge will develop over
the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday. High
moisture content will linger underneath the ridge with
temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s areawide.
Isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection will be possible
through the middle of next week given the tropical like airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A few lingering showers and ceilings in the 4-6k foot range
towards central OH, south of MFD and CAK, early this morning.
This lingering activity will continue to gradually exit to the
south-southeast this morning, with VFR conditions and just some
mid to high-level clouds then persisting through the TAFs. Winds
will remain northeast through the TAF period... increasing to
10-15kt by this afternoon, with some gusts to 25kt near and
southwest of Lake Erie, including at TOL, FDY, CLE and ERI.
Winds will slacken and turn a bit more easterly tonight,
especially away from the lakeshore.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected at times in rain late Friday through
Saturday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with non-
VFR conditions possible again on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions are expected through Saturday, as a
tight pressure gradient develops between high pressure sliding
to the north and northeast of Lake Erie and low pressure
approaching from the west-southwest. The weak low pressure is
expected to track over or near the lake Saturday into Saturday
night, with a weak cold front crossing the lake Sunday night.

North-northeast winds 15-20kt with waves mainly 2-4 feet this
morning will shift out of a more true northeast direction and
increase a bit further to 20-25kt this afternoon and evening.
Waves will increase to 4-7 feet, especially in the central
basin. Winds remain elevated between 15-25kt while gradually
veering more east-northeast on Friday, east Friday night, and
then more offshore out of the south into Saturday. The largest
waves will gradually become focused farther west and offshore
later Friday into Saturday. Winds will gradually diminish from
west to east Saturday and Saturday night as low pressure moves
through with waves gradually subsiding as well. Small Craft
Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements are in effect for all of
our nearshore waters and adjacent counties beginning 12z/8am
this morning, and have been extended in time and expire from
east to west Friday evening through Saturday morning as winds
shift offshore and diminish. We will need to watch the south-
southeast winds for localized enhancement and perhaps a renewed
Small Craft Advisory east of Cleveland on Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for OHZ003-
     007-009-010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan