Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

866
FXUS61 KCLE 260313
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1013 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The weakening TROWAL and related widespread snow have exited our
region. Thus, the Winter Storm Warning was cancelled early for
most of our CWA. However, kept the warning in effect until 10 AM
Monday for our NE OH snowbelt counties and until 1 PM Monday
for our NW PA snowbelt counties. Despite extensive ice cover on
Lake Erie, light lake-effect snow (LES) is streaming generally
S`ward from the central basin late this evening. Expect
additional LES to stream from central and eventually eastern
portions of the lake through at least midday Monday as 850 mb
temperatures cool from near -15C to -18C, low-level moisture
remains abundant/deep on the synoptic scale, and an upstream
moisture connection to Lake Huron persists as mean low-level
flow backs from N`erly to NW`erly. Our official forecast calls
for 2" or less of fresh snow accumulation from the LES through
about midday Monday. However, if openings in the lake ice cover
are greater than analyzed by the U.S. National Ice Center, then
LES accumulations could be greater than our forecast. Will let
the overnight shift reevaluate the situation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread snow will continue this afternoon and evening before
tapering off tonight. Lake enhanced snow showers are expected to
linger in northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania Monday
with additional light snow accumulation expected.

2) An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for wind chill values near -
15F and below -20F for some locations on Tuesday as arctic air is
ushered in with high pressure.

3) Prolonged cold with occasional light snow is expected through the
end of next week creating elevated risks for cold exposure and
damage to infrastructure.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Widespread snow accumulation will continue through the evening
before tapering off tonight. A low pressure system, currently
located over the Tennessee Valley will track northeastward up the
Appalachians this evening and off the east coast by tonight.
Overrunning precipitation due to broad moisture advection and
isentropic ascent driving the snowfall will persist until the low
moves off to the east of the region. Additional snow accumulations
across the region will range from 3 to 5 inches for areas west of I-
71 and around 5 to 8 to the east with the higher amounts in far
eastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. Winds will also be a
factor this evening as gusts of around 20mph are possible with winds
shifting to be out of the northwest and cold air advection moves in.
As mentioned, the snow will begin to taper off from west to east
this evening as the low pushes off the east coast.

On the back end of the low pressure system, there will be some
lingering moisture that will generate some lake enhanced showers
across northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. Though, with
most of the moisture off to the east, additional accumulations will
be limited. Other limiting factors will be that Lake Erie being
almost completely ice covered and there will decent low level shear
in place over the region through mid-morning Monday. With the ice
coverage, there may be some breaks with the shifting winds that
could allow for areas of stronger lake enhanced showers. Regardless,
an additional 1 to 2 inches are expected across the snowbelt with
locally higher amounts near 3 inches. Snow showers will end as high
pressure builds in just south of the region and flow backs to be
more southwesterly Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A large upper level trough will be in place across eastern Canada
reaching down into eastern CONUS that provide support for an arctic
surface high pressure to move south along its western periphery.
This will bring much colder air to most locations east of the
Rockies to include the Great Lakes region. Combined with an ice
covered Lake Erie, northwesterly winds moving across the lake, and a
fresh snow pack across the region, overnight temperatures will drop
to below zero for much of the region starting on Monday night.
Temperatures have continued to trend down for Monday night/Tuesday
morning in particular and accompanied with southwest winds gusting
15 to 25mph and clearing skies, wind chills will be down to -15F to
below -20F for some locations. A Extreme Cold Watch has been issued
for that time frame as there will be impacts with prolonged
exposure.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The previously mentioned upper level trough will be stubborned to
depart and will be in place over the region through the end of the
week. This will ensure that temperatures will continue to be well
below average with daytime highs barely reaching into the mid-teens.
Overnight lows will be down in the low single digits and below zero
for some locations as well. Wind chills as well will be between -10F
and -20F periodically throughout the week, with the coldest times
during the overnight and morning hours. This prolonged cold stretch
will have elevated risks for cold exposure and infrastructure damage
across the region. Take precautions and limit time outdoors if
possible. Throughout the week, there will be frequent shortwave
system moving across the region that will reinforce the cold air
mass and provide occasional light snow fall across the region with
periods of possible lake effect snow showers. Further details on
these systems will come closer to the event.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
At the surface, a low wobbling NE`ward in vicinity of the Upper
OH Valley early this evening dissipates by 05Z/Mon in vicinity
of southwestern PA as a stronger low wobbles NE`ward from south
of Long Island toward Nantucket. The latter low is then
expected to strengthen further as it wobbles NE`ward to
Atlantic waters south of Nova Scotia by 00Z/Tues. Accordingly, a
trough lingers over our region through about 05Z/Mon and then a
ridge builds from the north-central United States through
00Z/Tues. Our regional surface winds continue to back from
NE`erly to W`erly through the TAF period and remain around 5 to
15 knots in magnitude. Gusts up to 20 knots are possible between
~15Z/Mon and ~23Z/Mon.

Scattered to widespread low clouds with bases between 700 ft and
3kft AGL are expected through the TAF period. Widespread snow,
moderate to heavy at times, is expected to exit our region
generally from west to east this evening through ~06Z/Mon.
Visibility will range between primarily MVFR and LIFR in this
snow. Primarily dry weather is then expected behind the
widespread snow. However, light lake-effect snow (LES)
originating over Lake Huron and originating over mainly ice-
covered Lake Erie should impact NE OH and NW PA at times through
00Z/Tues as mean low-level flow backs from N`erly to W`erly.
Visibility should vary between mainly VFR and MVFR in this LES.

Outlook...During Monday night through Friday, additional
periods of snow with non-VFR are possible. Greatest chances
exist in NE OH and NW PA, where periodic lake-effect snow
downwind of Lake Huron and mainly-ice covered Lake Erie should
occur.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds gradually shift north and northwest at 10-20 knots
through tonight. Winds gradually shift west Monday and southwest
Monday night, increasing to 20-30 knots Monday night and Tuesday
ahead of the next cold front. This cold front crosses Tuesday
afternoon, shifting winds more west at 15-25 knots Tuesday night.
Winds shift southwest Wednesday into Wednesday night at 15-20kt
ahead of the next cold front, which crosses early Thursday and
shifts winds more westerly at 15-20kt.

Ice will continue to thicken through next weekend as several bouts
of cold air impact the region. Stronger southwest winds on Tuesday
may break up and shift the ice northeastward away from the
southwestern shoreline of Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for OHZ010>014-
     020>023-089.
PA...Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for PAZ001>003.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka/23
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Sullivan