Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

200
FXUS61 KCLE 271812
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
112 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast confidence has increased in wind chill values below -15
F tonight, so a Cold Weather Advisory was issued for the entire
area from 7 PM this evening until 11 AM Wednesday morning. The
forecast has trended colder for Friday and Saturday, and some
climate sites may see record cold low temperatures.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1 Dangerous wind chills as low as -27 F will bring significant
cold exposure risks to the entire area this morning.

2) Light snow is expected areawide today, with some blowing
snow west of I-71 and along the lakeshore. The light snow
accumulations and blowing snow may result in travel impacts.

3) Prolonged cold is expected through the weekend creating
elevated risks for cold exposure and damage to infrastructure.

4) Generally limited snow chances after today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Current observations (as of 07Z) have surface temperatures
around 3 to -4 F with wind chills generally around -15 to -25.
The lowest temperatures and wind chills are likely to occur over
the next couple hours before gradually warming to above criteria
by later this morning. An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect
across the entire CWA through 11 AM.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
An upper-level trough and associated surface low will swing
southeast across the Great Lakes region today. Snow associated
with this system will come in a couple waves. First, with
isentropic lift ahead of the front this morning, and then
with and behind the cold front itself. The snow this morning will
likely come as steady light snow for a few hours between
13-16Z. This snow will mainly impact east of I-77, but could
briefly extend as far west as Toledo-Mansfield area. Even though
snow will be light, roads should become snow-covered.

Additional snow is expected along and behind the cold front late
this morning into the early afternoon. Steep low-level lapse
rates and weak instability will contribute to snow becoming more
showery with some snow squall potential east of I-77 where low-
level frontogenesis will be at its greatest. Conditions will be
more variable during this time frame, with a slightly better
chance at brief low visibility and moderate snow rates.

In total most of the area will likely see at least of a dusting
of light, powdery snow, with 1 to 2 inches expected along and
east of I-77, where snow is likely to be most persistent.
Localized higher amounts of 3 to 4 inches could be possible in
the higher terrain in the primary snow belt, where orographic
lift and some lake enhancement is expected. Impacts to roads
and travel are likely.

Outside of the snow accumulations, southwest gusty winds will
lead to some blowing and drifting of the deep snowpack today,
especially west of I-71 where the strongest wind gusts of 30-40
mph will be possible this morning. Folks that live west of I-71
should be prepared for some impacts to the commute this morning
from the blowing and drifting.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Very cold temperatures continue tonight into Wednesday morning,
though perhaps not quite as cold as this morning. Confidence is
quite high in much the area dipping below -15 wind chills
tonight, so a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the
entire area from 7 PM this evening through 11 AM Wednesday

Prolonged cold continues through the rest of this week and into
the weekend with air temperatures regularly sinking below zero
and wind chills in the -10 to -20 range. Day time high
temperatures will struggle to exceed 10 degrees, and will
finally "warm up" to the mid to upper 10s by Sunday. Coldest
temperatures and wind chills are likely to be Thursday night
into Friday morning, and again Friday night into Saturday
morning when wind chills could dip down to -20 and low
temperatures could break daily records. Additional cold weather
headlines are likely.

This ongoing and continued stretch of cold ambient temperatures
averaging below 16 degrees will bring increased risk of
infrastructure impacts due to the cold, such as burst pipes,
water main breaks, and dead batteries. The prolonged nature of
the cold will also pose a continued and increasing risk of
exposure to more vulnerable populations.

KEY MESSAGE 4...
With a frozen lake and very cold, dry synoptic weather pattern,
only small chances for light snow exist beyond today`s system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Light snow associated with a clipper system across Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania will tend to lift north and
diminish this afternoon. A heavier burst of snow associated with
a cold front can be seen upstream across southeast Michigan and
northern Indiana and will sweep southeast across the area
between 18-00Z. Visibilities may briefly drop to a half to one
mile with the front with occasional snow showers lingering
behind the front for a couple hours. Southwest winds will shift
to westerly with gusts of 25-30 knots. Light snow showers off
Lake Michigan may impact FDY/MFD at times through the evening.
Skies may scatter out at times but generally expect mostly
cloudy skies of 2500-4500 feet until starting to scatter out
from the southwest on Wednesday. Winds will drop to 7 knots or
less overnight.

Outlook...Additional periods of non-VFR with clouds and
snow showers are expected through this Saturday. Greatest
chances exist in NE OH and NW PA, where periodic lake-effect
snow downwind of mainly ice-covered Lake Erie should occur.

&&

.MARINE...
Frequent wind shifts and variable speeds are expected on ice covered
Lake Erie this week as a series of weak systems impact the region.
SW winds will increase to 20-30 knots this morning ahead of a
clipper and associated cold front. Winds will veer to W behind the
front this afternoon and evening, turning SW again tonight and
decreasing to 10-15 knots. SW winds will increase to 15-25 knots
Wednesday ahead of another clipper and cold front that moves through
Wednesday night veering winds to W while decreasing to 10-15 knots.
W winds of 10-15 knots will continue Thursday, becoming NW at 5-10
knots Thursday night and Friday. Winds will turn NNW by Saturday and
slightly increase to 10-15 knots.

As mentioned, Lake Erie is now 100% ice covered. The latest ice
analysis shows that the majority of the ice is thin, but the deep
arctic air entrenched across the region will allow the ice to slowly
thicken through this weekend. The fluctuating wind speeds and
directions may lead to some shifting of the ice fields, but as the
ice continues to thicken, it will become more anchored in place.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low temperatures are possible on Thursday and Friday.
Here are the daily record low minimum temperatures for January
29 and 30th:

Date    Toledo      Mansfield    Cleveland    Akron        Youngstown   Erie
01-29   -9(1963)    -14(1977)    -17(1873)    -13(1977)    -12(1977)    -10(1977)
01-30   -10(2019)   -10(2019)    -4(1873)     -6(1965)     -8(1965)     -4(2019)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Wednesday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Wednesday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...10
MARINE...Garuckas