Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

422
FXUS61 KCLE 192259
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
659 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- A Freeze Warning remains in effect from 11 PM today to 11 AM EDT
tomorrow for all of north-central OH and NW PA.

- A Freeze Watch has been issued for most of our CWA, except
  Lucas, Ottawa, Sandusky, Wood, and Hancock Counties. This
  watch is in effect from 8 PM tomorrow to 10 AM Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Unusually-cold air temperatures persist through Monday night.
Frost and sub-32F low temperatures are a concern tonight and Monday
night. In addition, lake-effect rain, mixing with and then changing
to snow, is expected this evening into Monday morning in north-central
OH and especially farther east.

2.) An overall warming trend begins this Tuesday and should continue
through this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cyclonic W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances affect our region through Monday morning as a
primary mid/upper-level trough axis moves from the central Great
Lakes to the northeast United States. At the surface, a
secondary cold front sweeps SSE`ward through our region this
evening and is followed by a ridge building from the northern
Great Plains. During Monday afternoon through Monday night, a
shortwave ridge embedded in NW`erly flow aloft builds generally
from the west. Simultaneously, the surface portion of the ridge
crests E`ward across our CWA and then continues to affect our
region as the surface ridge axis becomes located near the
northern and central Appalachians by daybreak Tuesday. This
weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will maintain
a net low-level CAA regime and unusually-cold air temperatures
in our area. Overnight lows should reach mainly the lower 20`s
to lower 30`s around daybreak Monday, which have prompted the
Freeze Warning. Frost should form around daybreak from roughly
western Lucas County to western Knox County due to greater
radiational cooling this evening through daybreak courtesy of
the following: considerable clearing amidst stabilizing
subsidence and easing surface winds, both of which will
accompany the building ridge. On Monday, late afternoon highs
should reach only the mid 30`s to upper 40`s as colder air
continues to overspread our region generally from the northwest.
Given the expected evolution of the ridge, overall clearing of
our sky and easing of our regional surface winds Monday evening
through daybreak Tuesday should contribute to significant
radiational cooling and lows reaching the 20`s to mid 30`s in
our region. Hence, a Freeze Watch has been issued for most of
our CWA.

Scattered rain showers are expected the rest of this afternoon
through evening in response to moist isentropic ascent aloft,
ahead of a shortwave trough axis, low-level convergence and
sufficiently-moist ascent along the secondary cold front, and
eventual development of lake-effect precip (LEP) over and
generally southeast of Lake Erie, behind the cold front. Self-
destructive sunshine will contribute to the development of
these showers through this early evening. Continued CAA at the
surface and aloft and the wet-bulb effect should allow rain to
mix with or change to wet snow, especially this evening and from
north-central OH to NW PA. Any snow accumulations by midnight
tonight should be one inch or less and confined to the higher
terrain of NW PA and the higher terrain of Geauga County and
vicinity in NE OH. Additional LEP, mainly in the form of snow,
is expected over and generally southeast of central and eastern
Lake Erie Monday morning as a NW`erly mean low-level flow of
unusually-cold/sufficiently-moist air persists over/downwind of
the ~10C lake. The most-persistent snow, steady to heavy at
times, should be focused across Ashtabula County, western Erie
and Crawford Counties, PA, and vicinity due to an upstream
moisture connection to Lake Huron and resulting corridor of
greater lake-induced CAPE over Lake Erie. Additional snow
accumulations should be one inch or less from north-central OH
to NW PA due, in part to the precip expected to be isolated to
scattered and thus periodic in nature. Dry weather is expected
outside the LEP. The LEP should weaken considerably later Monday
morning, end by the early afternoon, and then be followed by
dry weather region-wide through daybreak Tuesday as the
aforementioned ridge is accompanied by a lowering and
stabilizing subsidence inversion.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
On Tuesday, NW`erly flow aloft persists as the ridge at the
surface and aloft exits generally E`ward and allows a warm front
to sweep N`ward through our region. A fairly-dry low-level
atmospheric column should permit a dry warm front passage. Net
low-level WAA ahead of and behind the warm front should
contribute to late afternoon highs reaching the upper 50`s to
lower 60`s in NW PA and the 60`s to lower 70`s in northern OH.
During Tuesday night, a shortwave trough axis embedded in
NW`erly flow aloft should approach our region and the accompanying,
weak surface cold front should begin to sweep SE`ward through
roughly the northern-half of our CWA. Scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms are expected as weak and mainly elevated CAPE is
released by the following: frontal forcing for ascent amidst
sufficient moisture and moist isentropic ascent ahead of the
shortwave trough axis. Lows should reach the mid 40`s to mid
50`s around daybreak Wednesday. On Wednesday, the aforementioned
shortwave trough axis should sweep SE`ward across our CWA, the
surface cold front should sweep SE`ward through the rest of our
CWA by midday, and then a surface ridge should begin to build
into our region from the northern Great Lakes. Additional
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible for the same
aforementioned reasons, especially roughly along and south of
U.S. Route 30. Farther north, odds favor fair weather due, in
part to stabilizing subsidence that will accompany the surface
ridge. Late afternoon highs should reach the 60`s to mid 70`s.
The coolest highs are expected within a few miles of Lake Erie
due to lake breeze development during the late morning through
early evening.

Abnormal warmth, overall, should persist in our region
Wednesday night through this upcoming weekend as we become
located within a net WAA regime along the western flank of the
surface ridge and eventually the ridge farther aloft. For context,
normal lows are near 40F and normal highs are near 60F to 65F
for late April in our CWA. Current odds favor fair weather
Wednesday night through Thursday night. During Friday through
Sunday, periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible due, in
part to the passage of shortwave trough axes embedded in SW`erly
to W`erly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
As a cold front moves east this evening, rain showers will
remain scattered and light in nature, resulting in very limited
impacts to terminals. As the cold front departs east, there will
be a transition into a northwest flow, resulting in the
potential for some lake enhanced showers to develop downstream
of Lake Erie. Many of these showers should remain predominately
as rain, although a few flakes mixing in cannot be ruled out,
especially across the higher terrain in NE OH and NW PA.
Terminals most likely to be impacted by these showers will be
KCLE to KCAK and east. Ceilings are expected to primarily remain
VFR through the period, although isolated lowering in lake
clouds may reach MVFR heights at KYNG and KERI. By mid-Monday
morning, snow/rain showers should dissipate, leaving all
terminals VFR for the remainder of the period.

West-northwest winds of 10-15 knots continue to gust this
evening with highest gusts of 20-30 knots across western
terminals and the immediate lakeshore. These winds should
steadily decrease over the next couple hours with overnight
winds from the north-northwest at 5-10 knots. These will persist
through much of the period before becoming light and variable
near 00Z Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Tuesday night and Wednesday in rain
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds on Lake Erie will peak late this afternoon and evening as
a trough crosses the lake. WNW winds of 15-25 knots will turn
NNW and gradually decrease to 5-15 knots tonight. Will keep
Small Craft headlines going this evening, gradually expiring
after 00Z as winds decrease. Keeping the Small Craft Advisory
from Reno Beach to Willowick until 03Z still looks reasonable
since it will take the longest for winds to diminish in the
western and central basins.

Light winds are then expected on Lake Erie Monday as high
pressure shifts across the lake before turning S to SW at 10-15
knots late Monday night and Tuesday ahead of another cold front.
Winds will turn N behind this front late Tuesday night,
becoming light and variable Wednesday and Thursday. Daily lake
breeze development is likely Wednesday and Thursday afternoons
which will turn winds more N to NE in the nearshore waters until
a period of stronger S winds Friday possibly offsets the lake
breeze.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
     Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     OHZ009>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     PAZ001>003.
     Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142-
     147>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ143>146.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Garuckas