Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

996
FXUS61 KCLE 140637
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
237 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat indices trended a bit higher for northwest Ohio on
Wednesday, with peak heat indices exceeding 100 degrees along
and west of I-77. Additional Heat Advisories will likely be
needed for Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat indices will peak in the mid 90s to low 100s today and
Wednesday, resulting in Major HeatRisk conditions (level 3 of
4).

2) Periodic showers and thunderstorms return Friday and
continue through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A closed off mid/upper-level high with 500mb heights near 600
dam will drift southeastward into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region today and tomorrow. This high will be responsible
for upcoming heat.

For today, temperatures will reach the 90s areawide, except for
near the lakeshore in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania
where temperatures will be a bit cooler. Heat indices will be
broadly in the mid to upper 90s, with low 100s more likely
towards Northwest Ohio. The Heat Advisory area/time is
unchanged with this forecast package.

On Wednesday, temperatures will once again be in the 90s,
though maybe a couple degrees warmer in parts of Northwest Ohio
and central Ohio. Humidity is forecast to be higher,
contributing to more widespread heat indices exceeding 100,
including areas along and west of I-77. However, it could get
close to 100 for locations farther east, including the
Youngstown area. Additional Heat Advisories are expected for a
larger area on Wednesday. Heat indices may reach 105 heat
indices in parts of Northwest Ohio, so may need to consider an
Extreme Heat Warning for that area.

The upper high will gradually flatten and dissipate over the Ohio
Valley through the rest of the week. A weak cold front passes
south Wednesday night but it will remain hot with highs in the
low 90s, except cooler closer to Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania. The cold front will bring slightly
lower humidity, at least compared to today and Wednesday, which
will limit heat indices to the low to mid 90s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
An upper-level trough centered over eastern Quebec will slowly
drift southwestward over the weekend as the ridge weakens
locally and becomes entrenched over the western CONUS. Broad
northwest flow ensues in between these two features, with
several shortwave troughs expected to move southwest across the
Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front also approaches
from the north, settling across the region this weekend. This
setup will promote a stormy pattern, though uncertainty remains
due to nature of a weakly forced setup. Model ensembles are
keying in on a more pronounced shortwave moving through on
Saturday, with the highest PoPs around 60-70% Saturday into
Saturday night. Modest mid-level flow and instability could
yield an organized severe weather threat, so this weekend is
worth keeping an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions will be prevalent across the region with some
scattered high clouds expected through the TAF period. Winds will be
light and variable through 14-16Z today, then become predominately
out of the west-soutwest at 5-10 knots for the remainder of the TAF
period. KERI will see increased sustained winds at 10-15 knots and
gusts up to 20 knots with flow being off the lake. Gusts there
should diminish after 01Z tonight with sustained winds around 10
knots out of the southwest.

Outlook...VFR expected through Wednesday. Non-VFR visibility
possible Wednesday night and Thursday due to wildfire smoke.
Non-VFR likely starting Friday night in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions across Lake Erie will stay fairly quiet for the week as
high pressure continues to builds into the region. Winds will be out
of the southwest today at around 10 knots for the central and
western basins with waves at 1-3 feet. The eastern basin open waters
will see increased winds around 15-20 knots due to the southwesterly
flow and waves building to 3-5 feet. The near shore zones across the
lake will range from around a foot with winds at 5-10 knots in the
western and central basins to 1-3 feet with winds 10-15 knots in the
eastern basin.

Winds and waves will begin to subside late tonight into Wednesday,
diminishing to around 10 knots and 2 feet or less by Wednesday
afternoon. Light and variable winds are expected across Lake Erie
from Wednesday evening through Friday night. A cold front will
approach the region from the north with winds and waves building
Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ003-006>011-017>019.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23