Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

528
FXUS61 KCLE 301817
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
217 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast remains on track with no changes to heat headlines.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure continues to build to the south east with hot and
humid conditions expected through the end of the week.

2) The upper level ridge begins to break down late this week and
precipitation chances will return to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The upper level ridge continues to build across Eastern CONUS this
afternoon with surface level high pressure building across the Ohio
Valley. This will bring persistent west to southwesterly flow across
the region resulting in 850mb temperatures around 20-24C. Similar to
the past few model runs, the NAM has been the warmest with 850mb
temperatures up to 26C by Wednesday evening. Currently, Wednesday
and Thursday are expected to be the hottest days of the week with
multiple areas contesting 100 degrees. Dew points are trending a few
degrees lower than they are today which will help with warmer air
temperatures. Regardless, heat indices will still be over 105 for
much of the area today through the end of the week. Friday has been
trending drier as precipitation has slowed down to be into Saturday
keeping Friday`s heat indices elevated as well. Overnight
temperatures will provide little relief as lows will only get down
into the mid to upper 70s. This will increase any heat related risks
along with the duration of the heat lasting through the end of the
week. Heat headlines are valid through Thursday evening, though it
is possible to see headlines be extended into Friday.

Late Friday night into Saturday, the upper level ridge begins to
break down and the surface high will retreat to the southeast. Flow
will become more zonal over the Great Lakes region which will help
regulate temperatures into the weekend. Highs will still be above
average with warm overnight lows as well, but should fall below
advisory criteria.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The upper level ridge will begin to break down late this week into
the early weekend and precipitation chances will return to the
region. There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the
extent of the surface high retreating to the southeast and the
timing of it. Models have trended slower over the past few runs with
the latest NAM and GFS keeping the ridge axis further to the west
than previously. Will need to continue to monitor as we get closer
for potential for severe weather as it`s possible thunderstorms will
track along the upper portion of the ridge. On Friday, with the
slower exit of the high, there will be potential for some lake
enhanced showers, though confidence is low at this time. On
Saturday, models depict a shortwave moving across the Great Lakes
region bringing increased showers and thunderstorm potential. Given
the water loaded environment, there will be heavy rain potential as
well. As mentioned above, still a lot of uncertainty on most aspects
of this feature at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with
afternoon FEW/SCT cumulus clouds and southwest flow around 10
knots with gusts up to 20 knots during the afternoon.

Outlook...Scattered thunderstorms are possible Friday through
Sunday, mainly during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest flow around 10 knots expected through at least
Saturday morning. A lake breeze is expected each afternoon east
of Cleveland, which could result in some better onshore flow
and choppiness (closer to 2 ft waves) during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hotter and more humid weather is expected through Friday.
Record warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
06-30   97(1953)       94(1970)       95(1941)       96(1913)       94(1942)       92(1930)
07-01   98(1931)       98(1931)       95(2002)       97(1931)       96(1931)       94(2018)
07-02   98(2011)       97(1931)       97(1954)       98(1931)       98(1931)       94(1963)
07-03   100(1911)      93(2020)       98(1949)       97(1911)       98(1898)       93(1934)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders