Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

957
FXUS61 KCLE 161800
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
100 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Patchy dense fog possible again tonight, particularly across
Northwest Pennsylvania.

2) Above average temperatures expected through Friday before falling
near to below normal for the weekend. With the increased
temperatures, the remaining snow pack will melt providing a
minor risk in river rises and ice jams.

3) Periodic precipitation expected this week. Wednesday will have
the highest potential for rain showers with another chance on
Friday. Rain/snow mix possible this weekend with a colder air mass
over the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Patchy dense fog may develop again overnight tonight as high
pressure continues to build east across the region where
saturated low levels persist. Latest HREF guidance shows
probabilities of 1/2 mile or less visibility ranging between
40-50% areawide with locally higher probabilities 70-90% across
Northwest Pennsylvania.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Upper level ridge will build across the eastern CONUS through the
week. Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow will lead to 850mb
temperatures rising to +5C to +8C across the region, roughly the
90th to 95th percentile when compared to climatology. A prolonged
period of above average temperatures is anticipated beneath this
upper level ridge with daily highs in the low to mid 50s Monday and
Tuesday. A warm front lifts across the region Wednesday morning
leading to highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday
afternoon. For reference, average temperatures in mid to late
February are generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs
remain above normal Thursday and Friday before dropping back
down near to below normal this weekend behind a cold front.

This extended period of above normal temperatures may lead to
localized impacts due to the melting of the existing snow pack and
ice jams. Will continue to monitor the potential for ice jams over
the next few days.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Multiple periods of showers will continue through the forecast
period. A weak shortwave aloft pushes across the Great Lakes region
which may bring some light rain showers to a portion of the forecast
area tonight. Any slight chance to chance PoPs will be confined to
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. QPF will be negligible.

A series of low pressure systems will track across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley regions Wednesday through the weekend providing
multiple chances for precipitation. The first system arrives on
Wednesday and will lift a warm front northeastward across the local
area. Precipitation on Wednesday will remain as all rain given the
warm temperatures aloft and at the surface behind the warm front.
Can`t rule out a rumble of thunder and gusty showers as surface
based CAPE values rise to the 250-500 J/kg range and a strong
LLJ 40-45 knots moves overhead Wednesday morning through
Wednesday afternoon. Initial push of rain showers exits late
Wednesday night with a dry window expected through Thursday
evening.

Another low pressure system arrives from the southwest on Thursday
night and will move across the local area through Friday. The region
will remain in the warm sector which will keep the p-type as
all rain before the cold front swings through Friday night.
Still some uncertainty in the placement of the next system for
the weekend, but a cooler airmass in place will lead to any
precipitation that occurs to fall as a rain/snow mix.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
It is tricky aviation forecast for terminals across the area
today as a surface high continues to drift east with an
approaching surface trough tonight. Conditions this afternoon
have generally improved from this morning, however many
terminals are still experiencing non-VFR visibilities and
ceilings. As winds increase from the southwest this afternoon,
more mixing sure occur, further improving conditions. Cannot
rule out patches of dense fog however, especially across
southeastern counties where visibilities could remain below 1SM
for much of the day. Tonight, there is once again a chance of
fog across the area, presenting another period of non-VFR
conditions. Confidence is not very high in how extensive this
fog will be given mid-level clouds pushing east and elevated
winds, so capped diminished vsby`s at 2SM for now.

Winds this afternoon from the southwest at 10-12 knots will calm
to 5 knots or less tonight into Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible on Tuesday afternoon.
Additional non-VFR conditions possible Wednesday and Thursday
night into Friday in rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie continues to remain ice covered. According to GLERL,
there is a swatch of ice just east of the Lake Erie Islands that
is much thinner than the rest of the ice.

Winds across Lake Erie will gradually increase tonight from the
southwest to 10-12 knots before remaining calm on Tuesday. A
more notable increase in winds will occur on Wednesday as a warm
front lifts north. Winds from the south-southwest are expected
to increase to 20-25 knots. Winds will briefly weaken before
once again becoming elevated late Thursday into Friday. In
addition to the increased winds, a prolonged period of above
average temperatures (and temperatures above freezing) will
begin to deteriorate the ice sheet. As a result, ice will
become more fragile and more prone to ice floes. It is critical
that people remain off of the ice on Lake Erie this week!
Shifting ice can result in persons becoming stranded and current
shipping lanes becoming closed.

In addition to the primary concern of the ice, there is a chance
of patchy dense fog tonight across portions of the lake, but
given low confidence have opted not to issue anything at this
point.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04