Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

621
FXUS61 KCLE 281138
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
738 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is increasing confidence in a window of showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a
cold front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light snow will move across the area early this morning with no
impacts expected. Temperatures will remain below normal through
tonight.

2) An unsettled weather pattern is expected next week with above
normal temperatures and periodic rain and storm chances. The best
window for storms appears to be on Tuesday night. There is also a
higher confidence window for rain on Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A shortwave is moving through the Great Lakes region early this
morning and some snow is featured over Michigan with this
feature. Snow will slide southeast with the upper level wave,
but the snow is entering a drier atmosphere and only some minor
snow showers may make it to the American side of Lake Erie
during the pre-dawn hours. Have maintained a slight chance PoP
for snow. Behind the shortwave, dry weather is expected with
high pressure across the region. Temperatures will remain cool
with highs in the 30s and 40s today and 20s and 30s tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Temperatures will ramp up on Sunday and Monday with a pair of
warm fronts moving through the region, allowing for 50s on
Sunday and 60s/70s on Monday and Tuesday. There is lowering
confidence on rain chances on Monday and the first half of
Tuesday in the warm sector. Some isentropic lift with the
warmer, moist air could pop some showers and storms, especially
if the warm front doesn`t clear Lake Erie. However, any
precipitation would be lower in coverage.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front will cross the
region and should allow for more widespread shower and
thunderstorm development. Therefore, will have a refined window
of higher PoPs and thunder chances in the forecast. While early
for specifics, there could be some excitement with convection on
Tuesday night, if a 50 kt low level jet can be realized into the
area ahead of the cold front. Something to stay tuned for...

There should be a reprieve in rain chances on Wednesday behind
the cold front with temperatures returning toward normal in the
50s. A low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley on
Thursday and allow for warmer temperatures and another window
for widespread rain. There are still some timing differences
among model guidance and it is possible that this system slows
into Thursday night or even Friday with the rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A trough is crossing the region from northwest to southeast this
morning, bringing patchy VFR ceilings and a few flurries/snow
showers. The potential for restrictions from snow showers at
CLE, CAK, YNG, and ERI is non-zero this morning, though based on
upstream trends any restrictions would be too localized and
brief for even a PROB30. So, do not have any restrictions in the
TAFs, though can`t entirely rule out brief MVFR vsby in a
localized snow shower through about 15z in Northeast OH or
Northwest PA. Otherwise, skies will trend mainly clear this
afternoon through tonight with VFR continuing. Northwest winds
5-10kt this morning shift more west-southwest this afternoon,
then south tonight at <7kt.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers or isolated thunderstorms
late Monday and Monday night. Non-VFR likely at times Tuesday
night into Wednesday as a cold front brings higher confidence in
showers and thunderstorms, with some lingering lower ceilings
possible behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
A re-enforcing trough is crossing the lake early this morning,
with a brief push of around 15kt winds expected behind it. After
a brief lull, winds shift southwest this afternoon and evening
and again increase to 10-15kt, perhaps a bit stronger across the
eastern basin for a few hours early this evening. Waves will be
slightly elevated in the 1 to 3 foot range today. Winds remain
south-southwest at 15kt or less through Monday, leading to
relatively good marine conditions on the lake. A strong cold
front approaches Monday night and Tuesday from the northwest,
crossing the lake Tuesday night. South-southwest winds will
increase to 15-25kt ahead of the front, flipping northwesterly
behind it. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed ahead of
and with that cold front. Unsettled marine conditions may
quickly return midweek and beyond in an active pattern.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan