Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

889
FXUS61 KCLE 171951
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
351 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is now an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon and evening across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania, driven by straight-line wind potential.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few showers and storms may move across the area this
evening and tonight. Greater potential for thunderstorms is
expected Saturday afternoon and evening. Some storms will be
severe on Saturday, with damaging winds the main risk.

2) Very warm temperatures persist through Saturday as humidity
increases. A cold front brings cooler weather for Sunday.

3) Showers and storms are likely Monday night and Tuesday.

4) Smoke continues to produce poor air quality and reduced
visibility across the area, but will exit to the east tonight
into Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper-level shortwave trough and associated surface low
pressure will dive east-southeast across the Great Lakes and
into New England Saturday and Saturday night. A warm front will
lift east-northeast across the local area tonight ahead of the
system, followed by a cold front Saturday evening.

The initial chance for showers/storms will be this evening and
tonight with the warm frontal passage across the area. Large-
scale forcing is rather lacking tonight, but the combination of
the front, an increase in low-level warm air/moisture advection,
and an unstable airmass moving in behind the front should fuel
at least some hit/miss activity that moves east across the area
through the night. Aside from moderate instability spreading in
tonight, not much supports a severe threat in our area with any
storms along the warm front. Precipitable water values will
surge to over 2.00" with the warm frontal passage so any
thunderstorms will have impressive rain-rates, but coverage and
organization looks limited enough to avoid flash flood concerns.

We`ll break into the open warm sector by Saturday morning, which
should allow any showers/storms with the warm front to exit east
early in the day. The greatest potential for storms will be
late in the day as the cold front approaches and moves through.
That said, the combination of heating/destabilization of a humid
and uncapped airmass and continued modest low-level warm
air/moisture advection may be enough for at least a few isolated
to widely scattered showers/storms to develop in our area in
the open warm sector by late morning or early afternoon. Hi-res
models currently suggest a subtle low-level trough axis may
focus more numerous/organized pre-frontal storm activity near
southeastern portions of our area (i.e. Canton-Youngstown-
Meadville) during the early-mid afternoon. The greatest forcing
arrives during the late afternoon/early evening with cold front
as the shortwave passes through the region and spreads the
right-entrance quadrant of an upper jet streak across the area,
bringing the most widespread/organized storm potential. Storms
should quickly exit to the south late Saturday evening/night,
though a trailing trough dropping off the lake a few hours
behind the front may bring scattered showers with it.

In terms of severity of storms on Saturday, mid-level lapse
rates will be weak (generally <6.0C/km) though this will be
offset by strong heating of a very humid airmass, leading to
strong instability (2000-3000+ J/KG of MLCAPE) by mid to late
afternoon. Pockets of mid-level dry air atop the moist,
strongly heated low-levels will contribute to fairly large DCAPE
values of 900-1200 J/KG. Deep-layer shear will initially be
weak, but does increase to 30-40kt by the late afternoon and
evening as the shortwave makes its closest pass. Flow will be
rather unidirectional, leading to rather modest amounts of
effective storm relative helicity in the 100-150 m2/s2. Any
pre- frontal storms will likely initially be cellular before
gradually growing into small clusters or lines, with storms
along the cold front itself expected to develop just to our
north (or across northern portions of our area) and quickly grow
into clusters or lines.

Damaging winds will easily be the most probable/widespread
severe hazard in that environment, with organized swaths of
more widespread wind damage possible with clusters or lines that
take shape. Given the favorable environment and hi-res models
continuously showing widespread, fairly organized convection,
the SPC has increased our threat of damaging winds to "Enhanced"
(level 3 of 5). The potential for significant gusts (over 75
MPH) is fairly low given somewhat marginal amounts of shear,
but can`t be entirely ruled out if we see a more robust bow echo
evolve across Northeast OH or Northwest PA. Any initial cells
ahead of the front may pose an isolated risk for large hail
given the strong instability, especially if shear increases
enough for a supercell or two play out. The amount of shear is
marginal for a tornado threat, but there is just enough 0-3km
bulk shear for a QLCS-type tornado threat with bowing lines,
especially across Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Any sustained
supercell would of course also need to be monitored for tornado
potential, though confidence in that scenario is lower. Given
the very warm and moist environment, locally heavy rainfall will
also be a concern. Storm motions of 30-40 MPH (on average)
should limit flash flooding potential given our drier ground.
However, if any locations see repeated or perhaps brief training
storms a very localized flash flood threat can`t be fully ruled
out. The peak severe threat is generally expected to occur
between 3 PM and 9 PM from northwest-southeast across the area.

Conditions will be most favorable to organized, severe
convection with the cold front late Saturday afternoon/evening.
While confidence in some severe weather occurring is rather high
across our area, there is some uncertainty regarding a more
widespread severe threat. A solution such as that presented by
the 12z HRRR/3km NAM in which pre-frontal convection is more
limited would support the more widespread severe threat
advertised in current outlooks and is currently the favored
solution. However, if pre-frontal convection becomes more
widespread earlier (such as the ARW WRF shows) that could limit
the overall amount of severe weather somewhat.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
After lows ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s tonight, highs
will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s on Saturday as dew points
surge into the lower 70s. Peak heat index values will largely
remain under Heat Advisory criteria of 100F, though will reach
the mid to upper 90s across much of the area, especially along
and west of the I-71 corridor. Those with outdoor plans will
want to keep hydration/cooling in mind. A nice airmass change
behind the front, with lows dropping well into the 60s by Sunday
morning as highs on Sunday range from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
A potent shortwave and associated surface low is expected to
pass just north of the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday,
pushing a cold front across the local area Tuesday or Tuesday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected as the cold front
approaches and crosses the area. While any potential for severe
weather or flooding will come down to finer details that aren`t
clear yet at this range, this does look to be a fairly dynamic
system (for July) with some shear to work with.

KEY MESSAGE 4...
The entire area continues to observe air quality ranging from
unhealthy to hazardous due to wildfire smoke this afternoon,
with visibilities mainly between 1 and 3 miles. Smoke is
expected to gradually exit from west to east through tonight as
the warm front lifts through. It will likely take until some
point Saturday morning to fully clear Northwest PA. Once the
smoke clears, a bit of smoke may return behind the cold front
Sunday into Monday. However, some rain occurring in the interim
where the fires are happening plus most of the smoke across the
Great Lakes getting cleared out over the next day or two should
lead to any smoke that returns Sunday or Monday being notably
less dense/impactful than what we`ve seen the last two days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Dense smoke will maintain IFR visibilities at all terminals
through late afternoon before gradually improving from west to
east this evening and tonight, but it will take until daybreak Saturday
morning to complete clear out of KERI. Otherwise, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a warm
front this evening and push east overnight. Confidence is low on
any cells impacting a particular terminal, but they should be in
the vicinity of KTOL and KFDY in the roughly 23 to 03Z timeframe
and be in the vicinity of KCAK, KYNG, and KERI in the roughly
05 to 10Z timeframe. Any shower or thunderstorm could produce
brief heavy rain and MVFR or lower if it impacts a terminal. Dry
and VFR conditions are expected much of the morning through the
early afternoon until thunderstorms develop after the TAF period
ahead of a cold front.

Light and variable winds the rest of this afternoon and evening
will turn S to SW tonight, with SW winds increasing to 15-25
knots by late Saturday morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in showers and thunderstorms ahead
of a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. A few storms
could be strong to severe with strong wind gusts approaching 50
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds on Lake Erie early tonight will turn
SW and quickly increase to 15-20 knots by daybreak Saturday
behind a warm front. SW winds will increase to 15-25 knots by
Saturday afternoon, especially in the central and eastern
basins, so a Small Craft Advisory has been issued from 14Z
Saturday through 00Z Sunday. The SW direction will keep the
highest waves in the open waters, with nearshore waves in the 3
to 5 foot range from Avon Point to Ripley. Winds will turn N
behind a cold front Saturday night and gradually decrease to
10-15 knots late, becoming NE at 5-10 knots Sunday. Winds will
quickly come around to SW at 5-10 knots Sunday night and Monday,
with SW winds increasing to 15-25 knots Monday night and Tuesday
ahead of another cold front, which will build waves to 3 to 5
feet. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed again at
that time. Winds will turn NW behind the front for Tuesday night
and Wednesday while gradually decreasing.

Visibilities will gradually improve on the lake this evening and
tonight from west to east as the smoke plume starts to move out,
but extended the Dense Smoke Advisory from Avon Point to Buffalo
through Midnight. Additionally, a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms could bring locally high winds to 50 knots late
Saturday afternoon and early evening as it progresses
southeastward across the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LEZ142>149-162>169.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas