Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

528
FXUS61 KCLE 130527
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
127 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Quiet weather will continue through Saturday with warming
temperatures.

2) Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday night
into Sunday, with an active pattern continuing through next
week that will bring multiple precipitation chances and variable
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Broad mid/upper troughing over the northern tier of the CONUS
will continue to supply cooler conditions through tonight, and
as surface high pressure drifts across the Ohio Valley, the
clear skies and relatively light winds will allow for a
refreshingly cool night as lows dip into the upper 50s/low 60s.

The surface high will quickly shift into the Mid Atlantic region
Saturday as the active mid/upper trough over the northern tier
sends another shortwave and associated cold front into the Great
Lakes. This will allow for southerly return flow, boosting highs
into the mid/upper 80s in most areas Saturday, except low 80s
will persist in far NE Ohio and NW PA. The good news is that dew
points will remain tolerable, so it will still be a fairly
pleasant day under lots of sunshine.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The aforementioned mid/upper shortwave will drop through the
central and southern Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday
morning, with coupling of two 80-90+ knot H3 jet streaks
inducing a strengthening surface low near southern Ontario
Sunday morning that will lift through the eastern Great Lakes
through the day. This will drag a strong cold front through the
region by midday Sunday. The jet coupling and associated strong
upper divergence will lead to unseasonably strong frontogenetic
forcing, so rain should be pretty widespread late Saturday night
into much of Sunday before drying out from west to east Sunday
night. Abundant cloud cover and rain combined with the early day
frontal passage should greatly limit any severe weather threat,
but PWATs increasing to seasonably high values of 1.25 to 1.50
inches along with the forcing and weak instability could lead
to some moderate to heavy rain in embedded convection. This
will take care of the recently dry conditions for those who have
missed out on the convection of the past few days. The current,
projected track of the low and best forcing beneath the coupled
jet structure would place the heaviest swath of QPF near the
lakeshore, where amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are possible, with
lesser amounts of a few tenths to up to 0.50 inch farther south.
This will be fine tuned with later forecasts.

Much cooler and drier conditions are expected in the wake of
the front Sunday night into Tuesday as the mid/upper trough
deepens across the central and eastern CONUS and surface high
pressure takes control. This will support highs mainly in the
70s and lows in the 50s. However, that broad mid/upper longwave
trough will keep the pattern active as additional shortwaves
rounding its base send reinforcing cold fronts across the
region. A weak cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday could
bring a few showers and thunderstorms, but the more interesting
shortwave and associated cold front looks to be Wednesday night
or Thursday, when stronger jet support induces a deepening
surface low. This could bring stronger thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall depending on the frontal timing, degree of shear, and
how much instability can advect northward. Temperatures mid to
late next week will be a bit variable due to the frontal
passages, but generally upper 70s to low 80s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR is expected through the 06Z Sunday as high pressure
maintains influence over the region. Winds will be light and out
of the west/southwest tonight into this morning before
increasing to 6 to 12 knots this afternoon. Gusts to 20 knots
are likely at KTOL/KFDY during peak mixing this afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
Non-VFR chances may return Tuesday afternoon and evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR more likely in
more widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds 6 to 12 knots are expected through today with
winds increasing by a few knots overnight into early Sunday. A
cold front will cross the lake on Sunday, allowing winds to
shift to the northwest. A period of winds to 15 to 20 knots is
likely in the western basin of Lake Erie Sunday
afternoon/evening, but confidence in Small Craft Advisory
conditions occurring is low at this point. Headlines may be
needed if winds trend a bit higher.

From there, Small Craft Advisories/Beach Hazards Statements may
be needed as southwest flow deepens ahead of an approaching
strong cold front Wednesday. NBM guidance suggests that winds
could reach or exceed 30 knots on Thursday so will need to
continue to monitor forecast trends in the upcoming days.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15