Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

726
FXUS61 KCLE 061221
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
721 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Overall, the forecast remains on track through the remainder of
the workweek. The only notable change was increasing
precipitation chances downwind from Lake Erie for Sunday due to
the potential for lake effect snow behind a low pressure system.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A weak low pressure system will move east through the Great
Lakes today, resulting in widespread light rain and/or drizzle
with a brief period of lake-enhanced rain/snow tonight into
early Wednesday.

2) Multiple rounds of rain as two low pressure systems track
northeast through the Great Lakes towards the end of the week
and into the weekend, ushering in colder temperatures behind a
cold front on Sunday.

3) Above-average temperatures are expected into the weekend,
resulting in a decaying snowpack across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Weak low pressure will move east across the local area today,
resulting in widespread rain/drizzle, clouds, and patchy fog.
Some lake enhanced precip is likely as the upper trough axis
moves east across the region tonight with a rain/snow mix or
perhaps a brief transition to snow in the higher terrain of NW
PA early Wednesday morning. Wet snow accumulations of an inch or
two are possible in the higher elevations of inland Erie
County, but impacts are not anticipated. Dry weather is expected
to return by no later than late Wednesday morning/Wednesday
afternoon, although clouds may linger several hours after
precipitation dwindles due to residual low level moisture.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a brief dry break Wednesday and Wednesday night, an
unsettled weather pattern will arrive late week into the weekend
as a series of low pressure systems track across the region.
The first system will lift northeast across the Upper Great
Lakes Thursday into Thursday night, followed by a stronger low
that will deepen as it lifts northeast across the Midwest and
Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. Rain will overspread the area
Thursday evening with periods of rain continuing through
Saturday. There`s still uncertainty in the evolution and
track/depth of Saturday`s low pressure system which will
ultimately impact the forecast (including PoPs/QPF/winds) so
adjustments to the forecast are likely in the upcoming days.
There`s some potential for breezy winds due to downsloping in
the warm sector late Thursday into Friday with additional gusty
winds possible as the stronger low crosses the area Saturday. Cold
air advection will develop on the back side of the stronger low
late in the weekend, which will likely lead to the return of
near or slightly below normal temperatures and an opportunity
for lake effect snow showers in NE OH/NW PA. Guidance favors a
ridge building into region late Sunday/early Monday, which would
allow any lingering precipitation to taper off by the start of
next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Above normal temperatures are anticipated through the first
half of this weekend due to an upper ridge building over the
region. Mid to upper 40s to mid 50s are expected as the ridge
axis moves east across the CWA with widespread 50s anticipated
on the western flank of the ridge on Friday. A few spots in
southern zones may attempt to touch 60 degrees Friday. The
snowpack will continue to gradually melt as temperatures remain
above freezing over the next few days, which will be aided by
multiple rounds of rain. QPF throughout the week won`t be
particularly high (under half an inch where snowpack is
highest), but can`t rule out some nuisance ponding in poor
drainage areas and/or marginal rises on the most responsive
creeks/streams in NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Low pressure was located near Chicago at 12Z and will lift a
warm front north across the area this morning. Aviation
conditions will trend down to IFR at all terminals through about
18Z, although perhaps a little slower at ERI. A band of rain
showers extends from Grand Rapids to near Cleveland. Light rain
and drizzle will fill in this morning as the surface low
approaches with ceilings dropping to 400-800 feet. Visibilities
will tend to settle into the MVFR range although may
occasionally drop to IFR, mainly this afternoon. Winds will
shift to west southwesterly with some gusts to 20-25 knots
later this afternoon as a cold front wraps in from the west.
Areas of fog may develop over Lake Erie and could result in some
lower ceilings and visibilities at CLE/ERI with the wind shift
towards this evening. Otherwise would expect the increase in
winds to result in a brief improvement to visibility with
some decline in ceilings and visibilities again overnight. Low
IFR is possible for much of the overnight hours. Lingering light
rain showers may mix with or change over to wet snow showers
late tonight at ERI.

Southeast winds of 10 knots or less will veer to west
southwesterly as a cold front arrives. Also included a short
window of low level wind sheer at eastern terminals with speeds
near 40 knots before the front arrives and surface winds
increase. Winds will settle back to southwesterly at 10 knots or
less overnight.

Outlook...Non-VFR will continue across the area through the
first half of Wednesday. Non-VFR with periods of rain and low
ceilings are possible Thursday through Saturday. Rain may start
changing over to snow on Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will pass near or just north of Lake Erie today. This
system will lift a warm front north across the lake and the
warm and moist conditions could result in a period of dense fog
in the Ohio waters this afternoon. Southerly winds will veer to
west northwest behind a cold front this evening and increase to
15-25 knots. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the
nearshore waters from Cleveland to Erie PA as waves build to 3
to 6 feet tonight. There is some broken ice in the nearshore
waters and movement of the ice is possible today. Persons near
the Lake Erie Islands should be aware that ice may break away
from shore as winds and temperatures increase.

Another low pressure system will track northeast through the Central
Great Lakes on Thursday night, lifting a warm front across Lake
Erie. While a strong low level jet will pass aloft, the stable
marine layer should limit southerly winds to 20-30 knots. Yet
another low pressure system is expected to track northeast into the
Central Great Lakes over the weekend. Uncertainty remains in the
track and strength of this low but expect a strong cold front to
cross Lake Erie Saturday night into Sunday. Will need to monitor
this system with at least a low probability of gale force winds
on Lake Erie this weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EST
     Wednesday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10