Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

016
FXUS61 KCLE 120001
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
701 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast. A more
prolonged period of above average temperatures will return this
weekend into next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Primarily light snow showers will persist across portions of
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania into Thursday night
with minimal impacts expected.

2) A more prolonged period of above average temperatures will
return this weekend and continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Regional satellite and radar observations reveal mid-level
moisture returning across the region, resulting in drizzle
transitioning back to generally light snow showers across
portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. The 850
mb air mass will gradually become colder over the next 12 hours,
dropping from about -10 degrees C this afternoon to near -15
degrees C by early Thursday morning.

Although Lake Erie remains ice covered, lake-induced moisture
from Lake Huron should allow snow showers to persist across
portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through
much of Thursday. At least initially, poor moisture within the
DGZ should largely limit efficient snow processes into this
evening. As the air mass cools overnight, DGZ moisture will
increase, particularly across inland Northwest Pennsylvania
where 1 to 2 inches of snow could fall by Thursday morning.
Otherwise, generally limited accumulations are expected as
temperatures remain rather marginal amidst weak snowfall rates.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Above average temperatures are poised to return by Saturday as a
large upper-level ridge begins to take shape across much of the
Central and Eastern CONUS. This upper-level ridge will likely
remain in place into Tuesday, though may begin to briefly break
down as a strong trough approaches the Midwest by Wednesday.

In terms of temperatures, highs in the low to mid-40s for the
weekend will increase further into the upper 40s to lower 50s by
early next week. Minimal precipitation is expected through
Tuesday which does bode well for a gradual thawing of ice on
area rivers and a melting snowpack.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
MVFR will be pretty prevalent through Thursday afternoon as
clouds hang tough before gradually improving to VFR from west to
east as high pressure builds into the region. KTOL and KFDY have
the best chance to see VFR by mid to late afternoon, but the
other sites may stay mainly MVFR until after the TAF period.
Light lake-effect snow showers will continue in NE Ohio and NW
PA tonight and Thursday morning, gradually diminishing through
the afternoon. These could bring brief IFR visibilities, with
the greatest potential for this occurring at KYNG. Otherwise,
it will mainly be nuisance snow.

NW winds will diminish to 5-10 knots tonight, with NW winds then
continuing to average 5-10 knots Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR is possible with rain on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie remains mostly ice-covered. West-northwest winds of around
15 to 20 knots will gradually diminish to less than 10 knots by
Thursday night as high pressure to our west gradually builds in and
becomes centered over the area. High pressure departs to the east on
Friday, allowing southwest winds of around 15 knots to develop.
There are a few models that depict stronger winds of 20 to 25 knots,
which could increase the risk of cracks developing in the ice on
Lake Erie and shifting northeastward away from the shoreline. Winds
generally weaken over the weekend, with westerly flow on Saturday
changing over to easterly flow on Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Saunders