Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

333
FXUS61 KCLE 030804
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
404 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. Continuing to monitor the
severe weather threat for this afternoon/evening and Saturday
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A warm front will lift north through this afternoon bringing
showers and thunderstorms to the region with a severe weather risk
mainly for areas south of I-80.

2) Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday
evening as a cold front sweeps across the region with another chance
for severe weather for areas southeast of the I-71 corridor.

3) Much cooler weather expected starting Sunday through the middle
of the week with a few periods of precipitation expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1:

A warm front will lift across the region this afternoon resulting in
temperatures rising up into the mid to upper 70s and dew points
climbing along with it into the low 60s. A weak frontal boundary
will enter in from the northwest and stall across the lake shore
this evening. This will generally serve as the boundary where much
of the precipitation and severe weather potential will occur to the
south. It`s difficult to map out where this feature will stall out,
though the recent trends have it further south towards the I-80
corridor. Around the boundary and to the north won`t be completely
dry as there will be a chance for a shower or two creating damp
conditions. On the note of severe weather, with the increased
temperatures and dew points, there will be MUCAPE values around 1500
J/kg from the I-80 corridor southward. Low level lapse rates will be
decent, around 6.5-7 C/km, creating a threat for damaging winds and
large hail. In addition to the severe weather threat, there will be
a marginal risk for heavy rain across the region. This will be more
concentrated in the areas with training thunderstorms and in areas
that are already saturated from the past few days. The severe/heavy
rain threat should wane into the evening as the better forcing moves
to the north with the frontal boundary lifting.


KEY MESSAGE #2:

Another chance for severe weather comes on Saturday as the frontal
boundary lifts north Friday night as a warm front and temperatures
stay elevated. Temperatures will be warmer on Saturday with highs up
into the mid to upper 70s with a few places touching 80 and dew
points again being in the low 60s across the region. There will be
plenty of instability with the warm temperatures and increased dew
points. Low level lapse rates again will be around 7 C/km with 0-6
km shears values around 30-40 knots. This will support a damaging
wind threat with large hail as a secondary threat. An isolated
tornado can`t be rules out either along the cold front as low level
flow increases out of the southwest. The area with the higher
potential for severe weather will be around and southeast of the I-
71 corridor. This is outlined in the new Day 2 Severe Weather
Outlook with a slight risk now introduced. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with a minor flood risk. Thunderstorms will be
ongoing ahead of the front with the front itself moving in from the
west around 5-7PM and will exit to the east after midnight.


KEY MESSAGE #3:

Behind the cold front Saturday night, a much cooler air mass will
move in as an upper level trough remains in place over eastern
Canada. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 40s,
around 30 degrees below what they were on Saturday. There will be
potential for scattered lake effect showers to Saturday and Sunday
with the northwesterly flow across Lake Erie. Surface high pressure
will build in briefly to the south of the region with dry weather
generally expected into Monday. A shortwave will move through the
region late Monday night into Tuesday that will bring a low chance
of precipitation with possible rain/wet snow mix as temperatures
drop just below freezing. Temperatures to start next week will be
below average with highs int the 40s and overnight lows in the upper
20s to low 30s. There will be a rebound in temperatures mid week as
the upper level trough moves off to the east and high pressure
builds into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
All terminals are VFR with broken mid level clouds of 6-12K
feet at 06Z. The main focus today will be timing chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Scattered showers extend from near
CLE to MFD to MNN at 06Z and will tend to weaken as they shift
northeast through 10Z. Another area of showers and
thunderstorms is located from central lower Michigan to
northwest Indiana and may hold together to reach TOL/FDY prior
to 11Z with decreasing intensity and coverage farther east
through 13Z. These showers are likely to diminish this morning,
then re-develop this afternoon after 20Z as a frontal boundary
settles south into the area. Showers and thunderstorms may move
west to east along this front late this afternoon into early
evening, before the front lifts back north. There is uncertainty
in placement of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but
seem most likely at MFD/CAK, with confidence for thunderstorms
the highest at FDY/TOL in the 01-06Z time frame. Thunderstorms
this evening could be heavy at times with IFR visibilities.

A low level jet with 50 knots near 2500 feet is moving overhead
and most terminals are gusting to 20-30 knots. If gusts drop off
for any appreciable amount of time will need to add low level
wind sheer to the TAF. breezy southwest winds will continue
today, with winds veering to the northwest and eventually
northeast for locations that end up north of the frontal
boundary.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night. Non-VFR more
likely on Saturday in showers and thunderstorms along a cold
front. Low ceilings may linger through Sunday. Non- VFR may
return on Monday in rain and/or snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots this morning will tend to decrease
this afternoon as a trough settles south over the lake. It will take
until this evening for the cold front and wind shift to the
north/northeast to fully cross Lake Erie. Northeast winds veer back
around to the south at 15-20 knots on Saturday as the warm front
lifts back north before a stronger cold front crosses the lake
Saturday night into Sunday. Waves build to 3 to 6 feet and a Small
Craft Advisory will likely be needed east of Vermilion on Sunday.
High pressure briefly builds over the Ohio Valley on Monday
before a 3rd cold front crosses Lake Erie Monday night. Another
window with possible Small Craft Advisory conditions looks
possible Monday night into Tuesday on the central basin of Lake
Erie.

Showers and thunderstorms accompanying the cold front Saturday
afternoon and evening could pose a threat of strong winds.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10