Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

150
FXUS61 KCLE 040603
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
203 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather remains for today with
damaging winds as the primary threat and a secondary threat of quick
spin-up tornadoes. Additionally, a heavy rain and flooding threat is
possible across the majority of the region as additional rainfall is
likely.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There will be another chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms this evening into the early overnight hours. Minor
flooding is also possible with heavy rainfall rates.

2) There will be a pattern shift starting Sunday through the middle
of the with much cooler temperatures across the region with a few
periods of precipitation possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1:
The frontal boundary that brought showers and thunderstorms to
the region on Friday will continue to lift north through this
morning as a warm front. This will put the majority of the
region within the warm sector of a parent low pressure system
that will be entering the Great Lakes region from the west.
Temperatures throughout the day will climb into the mid to upper
70s with some areas in eastern Ohio touching the low 80s. Dew
points will also be on the rise up into the 60s with sufficient
southwesterly flow across the region. As a result, there will be
plenty of instability with MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg
and 0-3km lapse rates around 7.0 C/km. Though, despite these
factors, there will be minimal forcing during the afternoon, so
expecting only a few thunderstorms ahead of the front and
forcing that will come with it. As the front approaches, low
level winds will begin to strengthen with a low level jet of
around 40-50 kts and 0-1km shear around 15-20 kts. LCL levels
will also be less than 1km which will support the chance for a
few tornadoes to quickly spin up with the front. With all of
this, the Storm Prediction Center has continued the Slight Risk
(Level 2 of 5) for severe weather driven mainly by the damaging
wind potential and a secondary threat of tornadoes. The window
for severe weather and frontal passage will begin in the western
counties around 4-5PM and move through region exiting to the
east around midnight.

Along with the severe weather threat, heavy rain and flooding will
also be possible with the showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable
water values will be around 1.25" and sounding climatology for ILN
and PIT have these values upwards of the 90% percentile. QPF for the
day will be around 0.50-0.75" on top of the rainfall that has fallen
last night and earlier this week. Locally higher amounts are
possible within thunderstorms with higher rainfall rates. Additional
rises on area rivers and streams are likely tomorrow evening.

KEY MESSAGE #2:
As the cold front from Saturday evening exits to the east, the
surface low will move northeastward into eastern Canada and a
much cooler air mass will move in behind. The upper level trough
will be slow to exit and stay situated across eastern Canada
down into northeastern CONUS. This will keep temperatures cool
with persistent northwesterly flow through Tuesday night. Highs
on Sunday through Tuesday will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s
with overnight lows down into the mid 20s to low 30s. Generally,
dry weather is expected across much of the region, though a
shortwave feature will move in from the northwest on Monday
through Tuesday that will bring precipitation chances for mainly
north central and eastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania.
Precipitation will stay mainly as rain on Monday and will
transition to a wintry mix and wet snow as a cold front passes
through Monday night. Snow showers are likely to continue across
northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania into Tuesday as
ridging will build in and moisture diminishes. The upper level
trough moves out to the east as well and low to mid level flow
shifts to be out of the southwest and temperatures will begin to
warm. To end the week, high temperatures will begin to warm to
be above average.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The first round of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
gradually lift northeastward through all terminals early this
morning. This will bring periods of MVFR conditions, with IFR
possible in the heaviest downpours. This activity should clear
the KFDY, KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG areas by 09 to 10Z, but it will
take until 10-12Z to clear KTOL and KCLE, with KERI likely to
hold onto some showers until 13Z.

A lull is still expected much of the day today before showers
and thunderstorms spread back across the region from west to
east from mid afternoon through mid evening ahead of a cold
front. These will first reach KTOL and KFDY around 18-20Z and a
KERI to KYNG line by 00Z. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall
leading to periods of MVFR and IFR are likely with these
thunderstorms. Showers will linger for several hours through the
first half of the night, so cigs will be slow to improve.

Generally E winds of 5-10 knots early this morning will turn S
and increase to 10-15 knots by mid morning as the warm front
lifts north. Winds will turn SW and further increase to 15-25
knots, with gusts to 30 knots at times, this afternoon before
turning W and gradually decreasing behind the cold front this
evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR with low ceilings may linger through Sunday.
Non- VFR may return Monday and Monday night in rain and/or snow
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds across Lake Erie are currently 10-15 knots out of the east to
northeast and will shift to be out of the south by this afternoon
with the western basin increasing to around 15-20 knots. A strong
cold front will move across the region this evening quickly shifting
winds to out of the west by late tonight. Stronger winds may be
possible within showers and thunderstorms as the cold front moves
through Winds will stay elevated through Sunday with sustained
winds of 15-20 knots and waves increasing to 3-5 feet. A Small Craft
Advisory will be needed for early Sunday morning through Monday
morning when winds and waves begin to subside. Winds will increase
again Tuesday with a cold front passing through the region and will
likely warrant another Small Craft Advisory. High pressure will
begin to build into the region on Wednesday and quieter marine
conditions are expected.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...23