Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

019
FXUS61 KCLE 130433
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1133 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses through early Saturday, quickly followed by a
clipper that will track through the Ohio Valley Saturday evening.
Troughing lingers over the Great Lakes on Sunday before high pressure
builds in for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A majority of tonight will feature mostly cloudy and chilly but quiet
conditions. Lows are generally expected to bottom out in the low to
mid 20s, with some 10s across the higher terrain of the snowbelt and
perhaps out west of Toledo. A shortwave will move into the Great Lakes
late tonight and push a cold front into the local area. The front
probably won`t quite get to Cleveland by 12z/7 AM Saturday. A few
flurries or snow showers may occur across northern counties as the
front approaches, particularly near the Erie PA lakeshore. Any
accumulations of snow through 7 AM Saturday will be minimal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-Lake effect snow (initial rates <1" per hour) pushes onshore
 northeast of Cleveland behind a cold front Saturday morning.
-A clipper brings light snow to much of the area Saturday afternoon
 and evening, with heavier amounts focused south of US 30.
-Lake effect intensifies along and near I-90 northeast of Cleveland
 late Saturday afternoon and evening, with peak snow rates of 1-1.5"
 per hour within bands. Lake effect spreads farther inland late
 Saturday night into Sunday before winding down late Sunday night.
-Coldest air of the young winter so far arrives Saturday night.

The main focus for the weekend will be a clipper bringing at least a
light accumulation of snow to the entire area Saturday afternoon and
evening, followed by lake effect snow that lingers into Sunday night
southeast of Lake Erie. An assortment of Winter Weather Advisories and
Lake Effect Snow Warnings have been issued (the reasoning for a lake
effect warning vs. winter storm is the large majority of the snow in
these counties being caused or enhanced by the lake). There has been a
subtle trend to nudge the clipper and its associated swath of snow
just a bit farther south/southeast with the latest run of guidance,
not enough to change the message much. There has not been notable
change to the general lake effect setup, aside from increased hi-res
guidance coming into range and allowing for some better fine-tuning.

Outside of the snow...

Temperatures on Saturday will reach their highs in the morning to
around midday, ranging from the mid 20s to near 30, warmest east of
I-71. Temperatures will likely slide slowly through the afternoon.
Lows Saturday night will range from the upper single digits to 10s.
Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 10s to mid 20s, with lows
Sunday night again the single digits to 10s. Wind gusts of up to 35
MPH are possible near the eastern lakeshore on Saturday, with
occasional gusts 20-30 MPH elsewhere this weekend. This could lead to
a bit of blowing/drifting snow, though the biggest story will be wind
chills, falling to 0 to -10 degrees Saturday night/early Sunday and a
slightly "less cold" -5 to 5 degrees Sunday night/early Monday.

For areas not impacted by the lake enhanced / effect snow...

The first half of Saturday outside of the snowbelt will be mostly
cloudy and chilly but quiet ahead of the clipper. Do have a low
chance for flurries or snow showers across much of the area early
Saturday as the cold front mentioned at the end of the near term
crosses. This should not lead to much snow as the bulk of the forcing
is missing the area to the north, perhaps some localized dustings.

Widespread snow with the clipper will spread in quickly between 1-5 PM
Saturday. Today`s guidance has trended perhaps slightly more
suppressed with the shortwave responsible for the clipper (due to the
lobe of the polar vortex pressing into the Great Lakes a bit more),
though not enough to notably change the forecast or messaging. The
greatest mid-level frontogenesis/lift and hence heaviest snowfall is
expected to setup along and south of I-70 late Saturday afternoon and
evening, though some of this stronger lift may briefly get into
southern portions of our area. This is a quick hitter, with the
widespread snow expected to exit between 8 PM - midnight Saturday
night, giving way to hit/miss lingering snow showers outside of the
snowbelt. The highest snow to liquid ratios will likely reside across
southern portions of our area, where the lift is most likely to
intersect the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) at times. Farther north,
particularly towards Toledo, the strongest lift will likely stay above
the DGZ, meaning a lower ratio and more "dusty" snow. QPF has been
nudged just a touch south with this update. Overall snowfall with the
clipper is generally 0.5-2" across the Toledo area, increasing to 1-3"
across the rest of Northwest Ohio over towards Findlay/Norwalk and
2-4" across the rest of the area. It will be cold and this snow will
stick to roads, slowing travel late Saturday into Saturday night
across much of the area. In collaboration with surrounding offices,
hoisted an advisory for the clipper snow where at least a solid 3" or
more of snow is in the forecast for a county.

For locations impacted by the lake effect snow...

Some lake effect will spread onshore along the I-90 corridor northeast
of Cleveland Saturday morning with and behind the initial cold frontal
passage, as mean boundary-layer flow shifts from southwest to closer
to due west. The initial lake effect setup through early Saturday
afternoon will not be all that impressive, with lake-induced
equilibrium level (EL) heights only rising to 6-8k feet, bringing
instability and lift only into the lower portions of the DGZ.
Instability will be rather marginal initially, with mid-level
moisture also lacking. Still, there may be enough of a burst of snow
at least into Erie County PA to have some impact (perhaps a quick 1 to
3"), so began the LES Warning for Northwest PA at 12z/7 AM Saturday.
Opted to begin all Ohio headlines at 18z/1 PM, as any snow with the
initial push Saturday morning along I-90 in OH will be fairly minor.
The lake effect likely lulls for a few hours late Saturday morning and
early afternoon behind the cold front in some brief subsidence.

A more general light snow will overspread the snowbelt of Northeast
Ohio and Northwest PA as a clipper goes by. Not to repeat too much
from above, though this has nudged south perhaps just a tick in latest
guidance, not enough to substantially change the forecast. The clipper
looks to bring a general 1-3" of snow (without lake enhancement) to
the Cleveland metro area and primary/secondary snowbelt region late
Saturday afternoon and evening before exiting.

The increased synoptic moisture and lift with the clipper will help to
re-invigorate the lake snow (technically lake enhanced) later
Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. Lake-induced instability
still will not be deep at this point with lake-induced ELs hanging in
the 6-8k foot range...however, falling 850mb temperatures of -13 to
16C the first half of Saturday night will support increasing low-
level instability over the ~3C lake waters (east of the islands) and
will also push the DGZ lower and into the relatively shallow lake-
enhanced snow bands, increasing snow:liquid ratios within the lake
snow. With mean boundary layer flow in the 270-290 degree range (west
to slightly north of due west) over the lake and hi-res models
depicting decent convergence along the shoreline from near Cleveland
up I-90, this suggests lake enhanced bands becoming more intense and
efficient near and just inland from the lakeshore late Saturday
afternoon and evening. Rates may reach 1" per hour at times...mainly
from northern/eastern Cuyahoga County into Lake, northern/central
Geauga, Ashtabula, Erie, and northern Crawford. This is yet another
event where the amount of snowfall near the lakeshore in Lake,
Ashtabula, and Erie Counties is not a slam dunk forecast...though if
the lakeshore does get heavy snow, it`d most likely be in this window
late Saturday afternoon and evening. If the banding settles just south
of the lakeshore in this window the forecast there will bust too
high. Still, given clear potential for banding to impact locations
closer to the lake early in the event did include the lakeshore zones
in the warning, even if confidence isn`t quite as high as just inland.

A relative lull is expected in the lake effect overnight Saturday
night into pre-dawn Sunday. Not that it`ll entirely stop, though as
winds veer a bit more northwesterly behind a trough passage and as we
get into brief subsidence behind the clipper the snow will probably
push farther inland...perhaps getting into northeast Lorain, more of
Cuyahoga, southern Geauga, northeastern Summit, northern Portage, and
Trumbull...but also lose some organization overnight Saturday night.

Lake effect likely re-organizes Sunday morning. The core of the upper
trough and cold air aloft will rotate over the area during the day
Sunday. An increase in synoptic moisture and lift ahead of the main
upper trough axis should combine with rapidly cooling temperatures
aloft to support the lake effect as we get into Sunday morning. Winds
will veer more northwesterly on Sunday and even north-northwest for a
time Sunday evening and night. The shortening fetch and inherently dry
nature of Arctic airmasses does lead to some question of the quality
and organization of lake effect snow on Sunday, though guidance
currently depicts some synoptic moisture/support along with upstream
moisture connections to other lakes, which would help to offset those
concerns. After another subtle shortwave rotates through late Sunday
on the backside of the departing upper trough, ridging starts build
from the west Sunday night into Monday. The snow forecast for Sunday
and Sunday night is still a bit far out for higher res guidance to
latch onto, so do expect some adjustments as we come into range.
However, expect a high snow:liquid ratio to persist on Sunday as
forecast soundings show the strongest instability, moisture, and lift
intersecting the DGZ at times. It`s worth noting that the airmass will
be cold/dry enough that snow ratios will likely be lower outside of
organized/deeper bands, with small flakes and a "dustier" snow.
However the heavier bands, which will likely be very dependent on
upstream connections (to Lakes Huron and Michigan) as winds veer
northwesterly, should produce very fluffy snow and efficient
accumulations. A fairly intense band with connection to Lake Huron may
take most of Sunday night to weaken across either far Northeast OH or
Northwest PA, though expect other activity to start losing steam
Sunday evening. The northwest winds will support the bulk of
accumulations occurring across inland and higher terrain portions of
the primary and secondary snowbelt, with some hints at occasional
banding as far southwest as Lorain/Medina/Stark/Mahoning on Sunday.

Upgraded the Watch to a Warning from Cuyahoga County points east,
though note that the warning in Ohio kicks in at 18z/1 PM Saturday.
The potential for west-east bands to bring 1" per hour snow rates late
Saturday into Saturday night, along with storm total accumulations of
6-12" from eastern Cuyahoga County points east (locally up to 14" in
southern Erie County), supports the warning. As mentioned above, there
is some "bust" potential in lakeshore zones given the second portion
of the event will favor inland locales, though the lakeshore
communities do have a chance to see heavy snow early on in the event.
Also included surrounding counties (Lorain, Medina, Summit, Stark,
Portage, Trumbull and Mahoning) in an advisory for a combination of
snow from the clipper and lake effect. The end times to these
headlines are staggered between late Sunday and early Monday. Will
need to monitor Medina, Summit, Portage, and Trumbull for some warning
upgrades as we get into the event. Would like to see hi-res models
come into range and better pin down where heavier bands may extend
into these secondary snowbelt counties before attempting any warnings.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-After a cold Monday, generally quiet weather with a moderating trend
 is expected through Wednesday. The next rain chance is Thursday.

There may be a bit of lingering lake effect snow across far Northeast
Ohio and Northwest PA early Monday, but it`ll be on its way out. We`ll
still be in the thick of the cold on Monday, though a notable warming
trend begins on Tuesday. A fairly quiet first half of the week is
expected, with a cold front bringing a high likelihood for rain late
Wednesday night and Thursday. A brief cold snap may follow the front
to end the week, though the general pattern will be turning much more
zonal so a prolonged cold stretch is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
MVFR ceilings between 2-3kft have push east across much of the
area, except the far eastern tier of counties. These terminals
will soon drop to MVFR as well, with all terminals remaining
with MVFR ceilings for much of the period. These conditions will
remain status quo for much of tonight before an arctic front
impacts the area Saturday. Early Saturday, a lake effect band of
snow is expected to push inland around 13Z and will impact KERI
through the morning hours. There is a chance that KCLE and KYNG
also see impacts from this band, but confidence was too low in
those sites to include a mention of snow.

By Tuesday afternoon, widespread snow showers will develop and
impact all terminals. Expect to see periods of IFR to LIFR
visibilities at terminals, especially where the heaviest bands
of snow develop. Confidence is high in visibilities less than
2SM at all sites with terminals along and east of I71 likely to
drop to 1SM or less at times. The worst conditions areawide is
expected to be this afternoon into the evening/early overnight
hours before gradually improving for western terminals by the
end of this period. It is doubtful that any terminals rebounds
all the way to VFR by 06Z Sunday, but will have to monitor
trends in the snowfall to best determine that throughout the
day.

Light winds from the southwest will increase to 10-15 knots
by Saturday morning. Local gusts up to 20 knots are possible
with the highest confidence of gusty winds across western
terminals. These winds will gradually back to become west-
northwesterly by Saturday afternoon and calm to 5-10 knots. The
exception being the lakeshore where winds may remain elevated.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible as Lake effect snow
continues across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania
Sunday through Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Active marine conditions will return to Lake Erie tonight as an
arctic cold front crosses the lake Saturday morning. Ahead of this
front, WSW winds will increase to 20-30 knots tonight into early
Saturday morning. After the passage of the front, W winds will
slightly decrease to 15-25 knots from mid morning Saturday through
the evening before turning NW and increasing again to 20-30 knots
Saturday night and Sunday behind a secondary front. This will build
wave heights to 5-9 feet in the central and eastern basins at times
Saturday through Sunday. Winds will gradually decrease Sunday night
while becoming W. Hoisted Small Craft Advisories late tonight
through Monday morning, except have the far western basin from
Maumee Bay to the Islands expiring at 18Z Saturday since there
should be a roughly 9 hour break in the winds there Saturday
afternoon and evening before potentially increasing enough again for
another issuance Saturday night into Sunday.

After a short break Monday morning, WSW winds will increase to 20-30
knots again in the afternoon before decreasing Monday night, so
another short Small Craft headline will be needed for Monday. SW
winds will average 10-20 knots Monday night and Tuesday, but another
system moving into the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday
could raise winds to 15-25 knots again, so additional Small Craft
headlines will be needed for mid week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday
     for OHZ010-020>023.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday
     for OHZ011>014-089.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for OHZ029>031-036>038-047.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday
     for OHZ032-033.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday
     for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ144>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ148-149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Garuckas