Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

105
FXUS61 KCLE 030759
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
359 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slightly lowered dew points for this afternoon. Otherwise, no
significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
Monday afternoon and evening along a surface trough. A few
storms could become strong to severe.

2) Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will arrive
across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Some nuisance and/or
minor river flooding is possible.

3) A chilly air mass will return across the region towards the
end of the week with another round of Frost conditions possible.

3)

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak mid-level shortwave will move northeast across the Ohio
Valley ahead of a stronger upper-level trough near the Upper
Great Lakes on Monday. A narrow corridor of higher dew points in
the 50s and mid-level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7 C/km will
accompany this feature, potentially yielding MLCAPE values in
excess of 1000 J/kg by Monday afternoon and evening. The latest
SPC SWODY2 marginal risk encompassing portions of North-Central
and Northwest Ohio appears reasonable at this time given modest
westerly bulk shear of around 30 to 35 knots. The main hazards
with any stronger storms that form would be isolated damaging
wind gusts and large hail.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A secondary area of low pressure will develop along a slow-
moving cold front as it approaches the Lower Great Lakes region
on Tuesday. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are
expected with the front, especially late Tuesday into Wednesday,
with high probabilities for much of the area to receive at
least one inch of rainfall. Although not particularly impressive
amounts, the recent wet pattern coupled with a widespread rain
could lead to some nuisance road and/or minor river flooding
and will be something to watch in future forecast iterations.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another anomalously-cold air mass will enter the region towards
the end of the week, with 850 mb temperatures falling to around
0C. Though not as cold as the current air mass over the region,
there does exist some potential for another round of Frost
conditions, especially Thursday night into early Friday morning.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Clouds are clearing with high pressure located over the Ohio
Valley. The high shifts south today which will allow winds to
increase with gust of 22-28 knots developing after 15Z. Wind
gusts will drop off towards 00Z for inland locations in the east
like CAK/YNG while most other terminals maintain gusty winds
tonight. If winds drop off in NW Ohio, may need to add some low
level wind sheer as speeds increase to 45 knots near 2K feet.

Otherwise some cumulus cloud around 5-7K feet is expected this
afternoon with coverage of VFR clouds increasing after 22Z.
There is some potential for a few light rain showers tonight as
a shortwave passes aloft but coverage is low with little to no
impacts.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon/night followed by increasing
coverage of precipitation Tuesday afternoon and night and
again on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift south today as a
trough crosses the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Winds will increase ahead of the trough, with speeds of 15-25 knots,
peaking on the western basin this evening with 20-30 knots as a low
level jet passes overhead. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued
for areas west of Avon from Noon-4 AM. Higher waves of 4 to 7 feet
will be focused over the open waters given the offshore flow.

A warm front lifts north of Lake Erie for Monday and the stable
marine layer should limit winds to 10-20 knots during the day but
may exceed 20 knots Monday night. May need to monitor for another
window of Small Craft conditions. Winds make an abrupt shift to the
north behind a cold front on Tuesday but timing is somewhat
uncertain. Conditions improve Wednesday as high pressure builds over
the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ003-006>009-
     011-012-017-018-027-036-089.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ010-013-014-
     019>023-028>033-037-038-047.
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ001.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10