Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

057
FXUS61 KCLE 140608
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
208 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The bulk of the forecast remains unchanged regarding the upcoming
systems. It is worth noting that confidence in any severe potential
remains low, but is expected to increase with future model runs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple rounds of convection possible in the next 48 hours, but
there remains a high level uncertainty in the potential across the
area.

2) A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area
late week into the weekend.

3) Above average temperatures are expected to persist through
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A boundary slowly sagging south today should stall just north of the
area. Multiple low pressure system are expected to travel along this
boundary through Thursday, resulting in multiple chances for
precipitation and thunderstorms. There are two notable periods of
potential strong to severe storms in the next 48 hours, but there
remains little confidence in the evolution of either system.

The first push of storms is expected late tonight into Tuesday
morning as decaying convection from the northern Great Lakes moves
into the area. Given the timing, limited instability will be
present, however a strong LLJ of 35-45 knots will assist in
maintaining some storms. Cannot rule out a couple strong to severe
thunderstorms, but highest confidence in this occurring would be
across the northwestern portion of the area. Primary threat will be
wind, although hail is not out of the question. Right now, SPC
highlights this potential over the area with a D1 Marginal Risk.

The tricky part of this forecast is figuring out how quickly this
morning convection pushes east and allows the atmosphere to rebound
ahead of the next system. Some hi-res guidance, including the HRRR,
suggest that there will be two lines of convection in the morning
which would result in storms lingering much longer. On the flip
side, models such as the ARW having convection moving east of the
area by late morning. If the HRRR is correct, thunderstorms will
likely still occur overnight but much of the severe potential will
remain limited. If the ARW is correct, then strong to severe
thunderstorms across the area is possible late Tuesday evening into
the overnight hours. With convection departing earlier in the day,
ample WAA and deep layer moisture will be able to surge across the
area, enhance by daytime heating and increasing instability. This
should provide a decent environment for strong to severe storms to
occur with the primary concern being strong to damaging winds. The
only common thing amongst the spread in models is that the
convection that does push into the area will likely be decaying
remnants of severe weather expected across the upper Midwest
tomorrow. SPC currently has a D2 Slight Risk to highlight this
potential threat.

Stay tuned for the latest forecast as this system continues to evolve
and models hopefully get into a better agreement in handling what
will happen in the next 48 hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A deepening upper level trough is expected to push south across the
central CONUS on Friday into the weekend, moving a strongest low
pressure system and associated boundaries through the area. This
system may once again pose a severe weather risk, although
confidence is fairly low this far out. There is high confidence that
areawide showers will occur this weekend as a strong cold front
moves east. On the backside of that boundary, temperatures will once
again dip, although this time to near normal, with highs falling
into the 50s by Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for the bulk of
this week with highs consistently in the 70s, possibly touching 80
at times. Overnight lows will remain mild with temperatures only
falling into the 60s. CPC has highlighted the area in a potential
for prolonged above average temperatures for the next two week. It
is worth noting that after the cold front Saturday, temperatures
will briefly fall back to near normal (in the 50s) before once again
increasing next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Conditions have improved to VFR behind showers and thunderstorms
from earlier this evening. Active stretch of weather expected
through the TAF period with multiple possible rounds of
thunderstorms, some strong to severe possible. The first round
of thunderstorms will enter from the northwest this afternoon
around 15Z/Tue and push southeast across terminals through
~19-20Z/Tue. Have timed out impacts to terminals with the
initial round of convection using TEMPO groups. The development
on the next round of thunderstorms may hinge on what occurs
this afternoon. As of right now, these thunderstorms will
develop along and east of CLE around 03Z/Wed with a stronger
area of thunderstorms pushing southward across Lake Erie
starting at ~04-06Z/Wed. For the TAF, opted for a PROB30 group
at TOL/FDY and the 30-hour CLE TAF for the evening/overnight
possible convection. Strong to damaging wind gusts and IFR/MVFR
reductions to cigs/vis will be possible in any stronger
thunderstorm that moves over a terminal in this timeframe.

Elevated southwesterly winds 12-18 knots with gusts 20-30 knots
will remain in place through this evening. Highest wind gusts
will occur this afternoon and in any convection. Winds shift
southerly tonight and diminish to 10 knots or less through the
overnight hours.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions are expected in
showers and thunderstorms through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly to southwesterly winds remain elevated between 15-20
knots through today. Given the offshore component, the highest
wave heights will remain across the open waters of Lake Erie.
Southerly to southwesterly winds 12-18 knots will remain across
the lake through the end of the week as multiple systems move
through the region. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
will be present through Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13