Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

184
FXUS61 KCLE 212326
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
726 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Not much has changed. Main chances for rain over the next week are
tonight, late Friday into early Saturday, and Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and perhaps some thunder are likely tonight, with a few
afternoon showers/storms possible towards central Ohio on Wednesday.
The concern for heavy rain and/or severe weather is very low.

2) The next round of rain is favored late Friday into Saturday,
again with minimal concerns for severe weather and/or flooding.

3) Unsettled weather returns Monday and Tuesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A low-amplitude shortwave will dive east-southeast across the region
tonight, pulling a weak cold front across the local area Wednesday
morning. The front will stall just south-southwest of our forecast
area Wednesday afternoon as weak high pressure builds in locally.

Synoptic lift along and ahead of the shortwave and approaching front
will interact with a modest pool of elevated instability (<500 J/KG
of MUCAPE) to bring scattered to numerous showers to the area late
this evening into the overnight tonight, quickly settling to the
east-southeast by early Wednesday. There should be enough elevated
instability for some rumbles of thunder tonight, but severe weather
and/or flooding are not concerns. The front will stall very close to
our southwestern counties Wednesday afternoon, and as instability
builds isolated to scattered showers/thunder will likely re-develop
along it. Most of our area will remain dry as light winds turn off of
Lake Erie, leading to a cooler/more stable environment. However, a
low shower/thunder chance is evident across our southwestern counties
Wednesday afternoon. There is again a minimal to nil severe weather
risk. Slow storm motion could allow a couple of spots to see an inch
of rain in our far southwest late Wednesday, though this would be
quite isolated and the risk for flooding is also minimal.

It will be much milder tonight, with lows mainly settling into the
50s. Highs on Wednesday will range from the 60s closer to the lake in
Northeast OH and Northwest PA to the mid 70s along I-75 and across
our southern counties towards central OH. Lows will range from the
40s east to the low-mid 50s in our southwest Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An Omega Block type pattern will develop across much of central and
eastern North America the second half of this week as closed lows
aloft park over the northern Rockies and over the Canadian Maritimes,
with ridging in between. A flat shortwave and associated weak
surface low is expected to work east across the region late Friday
into Saturday. This will slowly lift our stalled front back northeast
late Thursday into early Friday as a warm front, followed by a cold
front Friday night into Saturday. While a stray shower can`t be ruled
out with the lifting warm front Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning, most of the area will remain rain-free until greater rain
chances arrive from the west ahead of the approaching cold front
later Friday and Friday night. Greatest rain chances are Friday night
into early Saturday, diminishing from west to east through the day
Saturday. Given the blocking pattern the system will be slow moving,
and it is possible Saturday is a rather damp day across at least the
eastern half or so of the area. There is not much concern for severe
weather or flooding with this system, though with the slow-moving
nature of the system and what will likely be at least some weak
convective component to the rain it`s possible portions of the area
see locally over an inch of rain from late Friday into Saturday.

Aside from perhaps the eastern lakeshore, much of the area is
expected to push well into the 70s for highs Thursday and Friday with
seasonably mild overnight lows mainly in the 50s, with perhaps some
40s across our eastern counties. Saturday will be a cooler day with
highs expected to range from the upper 50s to mid 60s (warmer west).

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A period of drier weather is likely Saturday night through Sunday
night as high pressure briefly slides across the area. The blocking
pattern breaks down early next week as a shortwave ejects into the
central Plains on Monday and lifts east-northeast into the Great
Lakes Tuesday. This will bring renewed chances for rain to the area.
Heavy rain and/or severe weather potential are uncertain this far
out, though the dynamics do appear at least somewhat supportive.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A cold front continues to meander southeast into the area this
evening, bringing with it an area of light rain showers. These
showers will impact NW OH first before slowly spreading
southeast through the area. There is a non-zero potential for
thunder, so opted to handle the scattered convection with
TEMPOs. By 08Z Wednesday, all showers should depart to the east,
allowing for dry conditions to build in. Post-frontal low
ceilings are possible with ceilings of 2-3kft developing for a
period late tonight into Wednesday morning. As increasing mixing
occurs on Wednesday, ceilings should once again lift and allow
for VFR conditions to return.

Southwest winds this evening of 10-12 knots will continue to
produce periodic wind gusts up to 20 knots into the early
overnight hours. As the cold front moves southeast, winds will
gradually back to northwesterly and begin to weaken, eventually
becoming light and variable by the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and storms
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly elevated flow 12-18 knots this afternoon will
gradually turn northwesterly through Wednesday morning as a cold
front moves south across the lake. Onshore winds should remain
light with wave heights remaining 2 feet or less. Light and
variable flow is expected under high pressure Wednesday night
into Thursday before the high exits to the east Thursday night.
Low pressure approaches the region from the west Friday and
Saturday allowing easterly to northeasterly flow to increase to
10-15 knots ahead of the system on Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...04
MARINE...13