Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

685
FXUS61 KCLE 210552
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
152 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slowed down timing of showers and storms tonight with better
storm potential after daybreak tomorrow. Quite a bit of
uncertainty still remains in the potential for severe weather
tomorrow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected
tonight through Tuesday. Severe storms are possible, but there
continues to be quite a bit of uncertainty in timing and
coverage.

2) Below average temperatures arrive mid-week before gradually
returning to near normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As high pressure departs off the Mid-Atlantic Coast today, an
upper level trough will begin to dig south across the Great
Lakes region. This trough will support a deepening low centered
over Ontario and will aid in the development of upstream
convection in the region beginning today. Remnants of this
convection are expected to move into the far northwestern
counties in the CWA late tonight, where SPC currently has a Day
1 Marginal Risk (1 of 5). There remains uncertainty with how
organized this convection will remain given the lack of
instability during a non- diurnally favorable time, but some
gusty winds up to 60 mph will be possible. By the time they move
east of the I-75 corridor, expecting them to be primary rain
showers and sub-severe, but cannot rule out a few isolated
rumbles of thunder.

On Tuesday, the associated cold front is expected to push east
across the area, acting as a focal point for additional convection
to develop. Confidence is high that there will be storms given the
synoptic support that this trough will provide, the tricky part is
the extent and magnitude of the severe risk over the area. In the
mid-levels, a vort max will push east ahead of the trough axis
providing mid-level support at the same time a strong (35-45 knot)
LLJ moves over the area. This coupled with dewpoints climbing into
the upper 60s to low 70s on Tuesday should allow for thunderstorms
development, especially east of I-75 where there is the greatest
potential for destabilization to occur by Tuesday afternoon.

The tricky part about the Tuesday forecast is a result of
uncertainty regarding how the decaying overnight/early morning
convection will impact destabilization across the area. If cloud
cover lingers longer than it is currently forecast to, then there
could be less instability that develops come the afternoon, limiting
the overall robustness of storms across the area and placing the
axis of severe storms further to the southeast. On the flip side, if
the cloud coverage clears quickly and instability quickly increases,
the region could see a shift in the severe potential to include
areas further west.

Opted to ride the middle ground with this forecast package with some
cloud coverage lingering, but instability still increasing to over
2000 J/kg given the strong WAA and moisture expected. With all of
that, SPC has maintained the Day 2 Enhanced Risk (3 of 5) for the
extreme far southeastern counties and a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for the
bulk of the remainder of the area with the exception of the Toledo
metro area. With this setup, the favored storm mode would be a large
MCC with the primary threat being damaging winds up to 70mph and
potentially a few embedded tornadoes. There is a non-zero chance for
isolated large hail. Will have to monitor overnight convection
trends to get a better grasp on the potential tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Behind the robust cold front that moves east tomorrow, temperatures
are expected to cool quite a bit, falling well below average for
this time of year on Wednesday and Thursday. Ahead of the boundary,
850mb temperatures of 17-19C will push out of the region as 850mb
temperatures closer to 7-8C push south. This quick change in
temperatures will result in breezy conditions and a quick shift in
surface temperatures as well. Highs on Tuesday will climb into
the low to mid 80s, but will struggle to get out of the low to
mid 70s through Thursday with overnight lows expected to drop
into the 50s. This setup may also result in lake enhanced
showers impacting portions of the snowbelt given the very warm
lake temperatures. As high pressure returns late Thursday into
Friday, temperatures will slowly climb back to near normal for
this weekend with highs expected to be in the 80s once again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions are expected through tonight. The aviation
forecast becomes tricky by about 12Z this morning as a cluster
of thunderstorms moves east into the local area and multiple
rounds of showers/storms continue into this afternoon and
possibly as late as this evening. As of now, it looks like the
initial round of storms will be within the vicinity of KTOL/KFDY
between 12 and 16Z and east/southeastern by late morning/early
afternoon. There`s still some uncertainty in timing since storms
haven`t developed yet so amendments will likely be needed
throughout the overnight hours and into the morning. Another
round of showers/storms is possible later this afternoon into
this evening, although confidence in coverage is a bit low at
this point. Periods of non-VFR conditions are possible in storms
throughout the day today with non-VFR ceilings possible across
NE OH/NW PA as lake effect clouds/showers developing close to
the end of the TAF period.

Winds will be out of the south/southwest at 6 to 12 knots
tonight with southwest winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots with
gusts to 20 to 25 knots near daybreak this morning. Winds will
shift to the northwest and diminish to about 10 knots with
periodic gusts to 20 knots behind a cold front tonight.

Outlook...Residual non-VFR possible on Wednesday in lake effect
rain showers and clouds across the eastern half of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions across Lake Erie are currently pleasant with winds around
5 knots out of the west with waves less than 1 foot. As a warm front
moves south to north across the region tonight, winds will increase
to 15-25 knots out of the southwest with stronger winds possible in
the open waters. Waves will also build in the near shore to 3-5 feet
with occasional waves around 6 feet. A Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for the entire near shore zones starting at 8AM Tuesday. The
zones to the west of the Islands will be in effect through 4PM,
while zones to the east through Ripley, NY will be in effect through
10PM Wednesday. This is due to strong northwesterly winds behind the
cold front late Tuesday that will keep winds and waves elevated.
Additionally, a Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for Lorain
eastward from 8AM Tuesday through 8PM Wednesday due to the potential
for high rip currents. Conditions will begin to improve late
Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure builds in. Winds will
be out of the north at 5-10 knots with waves less than 2 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     Wednesday evening for OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     Wednesday evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...15
MARINE...23