Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

581
FXUS61 KCLE 050014
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
814 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

6:09 PM EDT May 4th Update...

Periods of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected through daybreak Tuesday, which warranted a slight
increase in POP`s. Also increased forecast low temperatures
slightly for overnight tonight since increasing cloud cover and
persistent low-level warm/moist air advection from the Gulf are
expected to limit nocturnal cooling through daybreak Tuesday
morning more so than the previous forecast depicted.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe weather possible this afternoon into the late evening,
though thunderstorms are expected to be isolated to scattered.

2) Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Tuesday into
Wednesday. Nuisance flooding possible with minor river flooding
possible across the region.

3) Cooler temperatures expected the second half of the week with
scatttered frost possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Periods of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected through Tuesday morning as weak to moderate CAPE,
including elevated CAPE, is released by the following:
moist isentropic ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes aloft,
enhanced moist isentropic ascent aloft associated with the
development of a SW`erly LLJ at/near 850 mb between about
midnight and daybreak Tuesday morning; low-level
convergence/moist ascent along surface trough axes accompanying
the shortwave troughs, established downshear outflow boundaries,
and along a cold front that will enter far-northwestern portions
of our CWA by late Tuesday morning. Surface dew points were
mainly in the mid 40`s to lower 50`s F as of about 6 PM EDT, but
will climb to the lower to mid 50`s F during the course of this
evening as greater low-level moisture, originating over the
Gulf, continues to overspread our region fairly slowly. SPC has
highlighted a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for the area
west of a roughly Sandusky to Tiffin, OH line, while the rest of
our OH counties are in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms.
Trends in forecast model soundings continue to depict moderate
effective bulk shear, fairly-steep mid-level lapse rates near
7C/km, steep low-level lapse rates stemming from recent diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer, moderate DCAPE, and
weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE will contribute to an
environment favorable for multicell storms and perhaps a few
supercell thunderstorms capable of producing marginally-severe
hail and damaging straight-line wind gusts in northern OH. The
severe thunderstorm threat should end late this evening, in
response to boundary layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling.
The potential for severe storms in NW PA still appears to be
very limited since slower low-level moisture return from the
Gulf should result in less CAPE, including elevated CAPE, there
through this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cold front will enter the region Tuesday morning and there will be
widespread showers and thunderstorms that afternoon into the
evening. There will be a brief dry period late Monday night into
Tuesday morning, but rain will return from the west mid day
tomorrow. The front will be slowly moving to the east and may cause
some nuisance flooding and possible river rises across the region.
QPF for Tuesday through Wednesday morning will is around 0.75-1.50"
with amounts east of the I-71 corridor over an inch possible. The
cold front will move out to the east late Tuesday night and rain
will slowly end from west to east across the region.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Behind the cold front on Wednesday, temperatures will drop to below
average through the end of the week. Global models have 850
temperatures dropping down to around -2C by Friday morning. Thursday
and Friday morning will be the coolest of the week, with
temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 30s with some
locations down into the lower 30s. Frost potential will be possible
those days, though with lingering cloud cover, may be more
isolated.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Aloft, WSW`erly to SW`erly flow and embedded disturbances affect
our region through 00Z/Tues. At the surface, a cold front should
sweep SE`ward through our area between ~13Z/Tues and ~00Z/Wed.
Ahead of the front, a high pressure ridge exits generally
E`ward while behind the front, a separate ridge builds from the
northern Great Plains and vicinity. S`erly to SW`erly regional
surface winds around 10 to 20 knots are expected ahead of the
cold front. These winds will gust up to about 20 to 30 knots at
times, especially before ~00:30Z/Tues and after ~13Z/Tues. The
cold front passage and subsequent building ridge will cause our
regional surface winds to veer to W`erly and then toward N`erly
and ease to around 5 to 10 knots. Note: a WSW`erly low-level
jet of about 50 knots, focused at/near 850 mb (i.e. ~5kft MSL),
is expected to develop over our region this evening before
dissipating around 12Z/Tues. This jet may result in periodic
low-level wind shear in the lowest 2kft AGL.

Primarily VFR are expected for the time being. However, isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and
ahead of the cold front, and associated with the aforementioned
disturbances aloft and low-level jet, this evening into Tues.
Brief MVFR to LIFR are expected with showers and especially
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may produce brief and erratic
surface wind gusts up to 40 knots at times, especially before
~02Z/Tues and then late Tues morning through early evening,
ahead of the cold front. Behind the surface portion of the cold
front, widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings and light to moderate
rain associated with the upper-reaches of the front will impact
our region, especially Tues afternoon through 00Z/Wed. Mainly
MVFR to IFR visibility is expected with this widespread rain,
which should be accompanied by mist development.

Outlook...Periodic rain showers with non-VFR are expected
Tuesday evening through this Saturday. Occasional thunderstorms
are possible Tuesday evening and again Friday afternoon and
evening.


&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots are expected through early
Tuesday morning. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions may
periodically occur this evening and tonight, however confidence
is too low to warrant a headline at this point. Gusty winds are
possible in any thunderstorms that move over the lake this
evening into tonight. Winds will shift to the northwest and
diminish below 10 knots Tuesday afternoon with variable winds 10
knots or less expected Tuesday evening through Wednesday night.
West/northwest winds under 15 knots will develop Wednesday
through Thursday with southwest winds developing Friday into
early weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka/23
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...15