Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

929
FXUS61 KCLE 180608
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
208 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) has been expanded east into Northwest
Ohio for late Monday afternoon/evening. The Slight Risk (Level 2
of 5) for Tuesday has also been expanded further east into
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages through early
this week. The warmest days will be Monday and Tuesday when highs
may approach daily records at a few sites. Cooler temperatures
behind a cold front mid to late week.

2) Localized strong to severe storms possible across Northwest Ohio
tomorrow. Widespread showers and storms Tuesday into early
Wednesday, with severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Broad southwesterly to southerly flow will usher in much warmer and
more humid conditions for Monday and Tuesday. Highs warm into the
upper 80s areawide on Monday and mid 80s by Tuesday. Area dewpoints
will peak in the mid-60s each afternoon. We will remain warm
overnight in the upper 60s to lower 70s, providing little overnight
relief. Temperatures through the first half of May have been below
average which will likely lead to this quick hit of heat to feel
noticeably warm. Take steps to reduce time in the sun during the
warmest part of the day and remain hydrated.

A cold front will swing east across the region Tuesday into
Wednesday allowing for a reprieve from above normal temperatures.
Cooler Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 60s before highs
reach the 70s Friday into next weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

We`ll begin the week mainly dry with some potential for showers
and thunderstorms across the west in the afternoon and evening
as an upper shortwave moves overhead. The Storm Prediction
Center has upgraded a small portion of Northwest Ohio to a
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms with a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) extending along a line from
Marblehead to Carey and points west. This severe threat is driven
by the potential for damaging winds and isolated large hail and
supported by a narrow corridor of moderate instability
(1000-1500 J/kg) given the warm and moist advection. Expect for
any convection that moves into the region to decrease in
intensity as it pushes east into a less favorable environment
Monday night.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will be
likely on tuesday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
The entire forecast area is either under a Slight or Marginal
Risk for severe weather with the delineation occurring along a
line from Corry PA to Mount Gilead. Areas west of this line are
under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) and areas east and south of
this line under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5). The primary
hazards will again be damaging winds and large hail given the
instability and stronger low/mid level flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Mainly VFR expected for the TAF period, but with some convective
potential. Convection will likely develop to the west this
afternoon and spread towards TOL and FDY early this evening
before weakening. Have a window of VCTS with a TEMPO for more
significant restrictions at TOL and FDY early this evening. Some
hints of isolated convection firing near YNG early this evening
as well, though with lower confidence, so handled with VCSH.
Outside of convective potential, afternoon cumulus will likely
produce a SCT sky around 040-050 at times today.

Winds are generally 5-10kt out of the south early this morning.
Maintain some low-level wind shear at TOL and FDY with a roughly
40kt low-level jet overhead and a near-surface inversion early
this morning. Winds will shift south-southwest and increase to
12-18kt with gusts to around 25kt late this morning into this
afternoon. Thunderstorms may produce higher gusts at TOL/FDY.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms at
western terminals Monday night. Non-VFR likely at times in
showers/thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. Non-VFR possible
in showers on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds are slightly elevated at 10-15kt early this morning
and will continue today. Gusts up to 25kt are possible in the
nearshore waters west of Cleveland this afternoon. Thunderstorms
may reach western Lake Erie this evening, and could pack brief
wind gusts over 35kt before dissipating while tracking east.
Otherwise, southerly winds will remain slightly elevated at
10-15kt tonight into Tuesday. Winds increase a bit further to
15-20kt Tuesday afternoon, with gusts potentially up to 30kt in
the nearshore waters west of Cleveland. Small craft headlines
remain possible for Tuesday. There is additional thunderstorm
potential spreading from west to east Tuesday afternoon and
evening along and ahead of a cold front, again with potential
for storms over the lake to pack strong wind gusts over 35kt.

Winds whip around to the north late Tuesday night into
Wednesday behind the cold front, and gradually shift more
northeasterly Wednesday into Thursday and more easterly for
Friday. These winds are currently forecast to be around 15kt
which would bring choppiness, but there is a chance winds trend
up closer to 20kt Thursday into Friday, which could warrant
some small craft/beach hazards headlines.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will approach record
values. The following are the records for May 18 and 19 at local
climate sites.

Date    Toledo    Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
05-18   95(1962)  92(1962)   91(1962)    92(1962)   92(1962)    89(1889)
05-19   92(1996)  88(1964)   88(1998)    91(1911)   89(1934)    90(1996)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan