Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

834
FXUS61 KCLE 181845
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
245 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for all of northern Ohio
and Northwest PA until 9 PM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A line of severe thunderstorms will move across the area this
evening, with most of the storms in the 4 to 9 PM window. A few
scattered storms are possible this afternoon ahead of the line. Main
hazard is damaging winds and heavy rainfall, but isolated tornadoes
and hail up to quarter size are possible.

2) Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday night and
Tuesday. Storms may be strong to severe, primarily on Tuesday.

3) Cooler and less humid Sunday and Monday, brief return to heat and
humidity Tuesday, then more significant cooling the rest of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A very active summer evening is on tap as a strong cold front
crosses the region and interacts with a hot, moist, and unstable
airmass to bring widespread strong to severe thunderstorms. Early
afternoon satellite and water vapor loops show a significant
mid/upper shortwave trough digging into the southern Great Lakes
with an associated 1000 mb surface low NE of Georgian Bay. This
shortwave will swing through the eastern Great Lakes this evening,
with the left exit of a 90+ knot H3 jet streak and somewhat
negatively tilting trough deepening the low to 990 mb by tonight as
it lifts toward the Canadian Maritimes. The trailing cold front
looks to progress southeastward across Lake Erie, northern
Ohio, and Northwest PA between 21 and 03Z this evening. Forecast
soundings have shown little to no capping in the warm sector
today, and convective temperatures have already been reached
with air temps in the upper 80s to around 90 and dew points in
the low to mid 70s. Heating of this very moist low-level airmass
is resulting in MLCAPE values pushing 3000 J/Kg and surface
based CAPE as high as 5000 J/Kg. This has already initiated
convection in NW PA and along and south of the U.S. 30 corridor
where a weak surface boundary has locally enhanced convergence.
This convection is primarily a locally heavy rain risk, but an
occasional downburst is possible given steep low-level lapse
rates of 7.5 to 8 C/Km.

The main show will come immediately along and ahead of the cold
front where strong forcing for ascent will trigger a QLCS in
southern Lower Michigan and Ontario Province. This line will
propagate southeastward across Lake Erie and much of northern
Ohio and NW PA this evening, with the greatest risk for severe
weather in the 20 to 01Z (4 to 9 PM window). Mid-level flow will
strengthen as the front approaches, with deep layer (0-6 Km)
bulk shear increasing to around 35 knots. This combined with the
impressive aforementioned thermodynamics will be more than
sufficient for organized, sustained updrafts. The orientation of
the deep layer shear vector is somewhat parallel to the expected
orientation of the line overall. This may cause parts of the
line to sag across the area and backbuild a bit, leading to a
sneaky heavy rain risk since PWATs will be nearing 2 inches, but
the overall threat remains damaging winds. Any parts of the line
that can orient more N to S will be more normal to the deep
layer and 0-3 Km shear vectors, and this will cause those
portions of the line to surge out and bow. Where these surges
occur will have the most widespread damaging winds, with pockets
of 70+ mph possible. Mid-level dry air (DCAPE around 1200 J/Kg)
will further air in downdraft strength and associated wind risk.
The surges/bows combined with low-level (0-1 Km) shear
marginally favorable at 15-20 knots could support a couple of
brief QLCS tornadoes. Finally, any embedded areas of rotation
will help to sustain taller updrafts for pockets of hail, but
high freezing levels should keep the largest stones around
quarter size.

The convection will quickly exit the area by Midnight tonight,
with dry conditions the rest of the night through Monday as
Canadian high pressure builds across the Great Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
After a quick shot of Canadian high pressure Monday, another
strong mid/upper shortwave will dive from the Upper Midwest
Monday night through the southern and eastern Great Lakes
Tuesday as a longwave trough and associated closed low deepen
across the Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS. This continues to
look like another dynamic system for mid summer with the
potential for severe weather Tuesday ahead of the strong cold
front as a deepening surface low lifts up toward Hudson Bay.
However, the timing, location, and evolution of the Tuesday
storms remain uncertain because a low-level jet Monday night
will probably initiate convection (possibly an MCS) upstream
along a retreating warm front. This activity could linger
Tuesday morning and disrupt the heating, as well as put down
outflow boundaries that could cause new convection to initiate
southeast of our area. Maintained high POPS for showers and
thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday afternoon, but details
will need to be worked out. Rapid drying is expected Tuesday
night in most areas, although showers could linger in NE Ohio
and NW PA into Wednesday due to the deepening mid/upper trough
and associated cool air aloft/cyclonic flow across the warm lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Mid/upper troughing across the Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS
Sunday and Monday combined with Canadian high pressure at the
surface will bring cooler, less humid air, with highs in the mid
70s to around 80 Sunday and low to mid 80s Monday. This will set
up a refreshingly cool night Sunday night, with lows in the mid
50s to around 60. A brief surge of heat and humidity will return
ahead of the significant shortwave Tuesday, as a warm front
lifting across the area Monday night and Tuesday morning brings
70+ F dew points back into the area. However, the cooling behind
the cold front Tuesday night looks even more significant as the
deep trough/upper low takes up residence over the Great Lakes.
This will drop highs into mainly the 70s Wednesday through the
end of the week, with lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Warm front has swept to the northeast. Only residual wildfire
haze was affecting KTOL. Otherwise, smoke and low ceilings have
eroded this morning. Visible Satellite displayed a cu field over
NC/NE OH and W PA with isolated sh over central Ohio.

This afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of a cold front, potentially impacting all TAF sites with a brief
window of lower vsbys and gusty to strong winds. Highest confidence
in thunderstorm coverage and the potential for wind gusts to exceed
40 knots. Have inserted gusts up to 35 to 40 knots in the window
from 19z to 01z in a tempo group for all taf sites this afternoon.
Additional scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two are
possible with the cold front later in the evening as it sweeps south
through the area.

Gusty southwest winds of 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots will
continue through 22z for most sites outside of convection. Winds
will abruptly shift towards the north behind the cold front later
this evening and overnight, around 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with haze/smoke on Sunday and Monday. Non-
VFR becoming more likely in showers and thunderstorms Monday night
through Tuesday. Some thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening
may contain strong wind gusts. Residual non-VFR possible on
Wednesday on rain showers across the eastern half of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions will continue across Lake Erie this
afternoon as southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots develop ahead of a
cold front. Winds will shift towards the north behind the front
later this evening and overnight, 15 to 20 knots, before diminishing
to less than 10 knots by Sunday afternoon. No changes in this this
package with the Small Craft and Beach Hazards for the central
basin, and maintain zones west towards the Islands, mainly for cold
air advection later this evening and overnight.

On Tuesday, rough marine conditions will arrive with southwest winds
of 15 to 25 knots ahead of a cold front. Headlines are likely
Tuesday through Wednesday as winds shift towards the northwest
behind the cold front, around 20 knots.

Strong thunderstorm wind gusts are expected across Lake Erie this
afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 PM EDT this evening through
     Sunday morning for OHZ009-010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday morning for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Sunday for LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ146>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...FZ
MARINE...FZ