Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

229
FXUS61 KCLE 031933
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
333 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Saturday`s Slight Risk for severe weather has been expanded to
include the entire local area. There`s still concern for
localized flooding due to excessive runoff and/or additional
rises on rivers thanks to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
through Saturday, although confidence in the location of the
highest precipitation values and the resulting location of the
greatest flooding risk remains somewhat low at this point.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along a
frontal boundary across the area through tonight. A few storms
may be strong to severe and produce damaging wind gusts/large
hail. Additional minor flooding is possible due to heavy
rainfall rates.

2) Confidence in organized thunderstorms is higher as a cold
front moves across the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night. Storms may be strong to severe and produce heavy
rainfall.

3) Much cooler temperatures expected Sunday through the middle
of next week with a few periods of precipitation possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1:
Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms have developed south
of the lakeshore, however a relatively strong capping inversion
will most likely continue to prevent widespread efficient
thunderstorm growth through the rest of this afternoon.
Showers/thunderstorms will increase in coverage along a frontal
boundary as better upper level support arrives this evening
before lifting north with the boundary early Saturday morning.
If any storms manage to grow tall enough, there is potential for
isolated instances of damaging wind gusts and large hail through
about 10 PM tonight. Otherwise, assuming the mid-level dry air
doesn`t throw a wrench into things, heavy rain will be the
primary threat through late tonight with unseasonably high
precipitable water values expected. Mean flow will be parallel
to the frontal boundary, but the good news is storm motion will
be progressive which will help mitigate training and the flash
flooding potential. With that being said, antecedent conditions
are conducive for at least minor flooding with 1 and 3 hour FFG
under 2 inches in place across the majority of the area and high
soil moisture values present across the eastern half of the
local area. At this point, it`s difficult to pinpoint the areas
of greatest concern given uncertainty in where the highest QPF
axis will occur tonight.

KEY MESSAGE #2:
The local area will remain in the warm sector during the day
Saturday, allowing dew points to rise into the upper 50s and
lower 60s by the afternoon. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop as a cold front moves east into the
area Saturday afternoon and crosses the area into Saturday
evening. Showers and storms will be more organized with this
round given the better upper-level forcing and higher effective
bulk shear values up to 40 knots. The moist southerly flow and
likely clearing early in the day will also result in MLCAPE
values of 1000-1500 J/kg by mid afternoon. Storm mode will likely
be line segments with damaging wind gusts being the primary
threat. However, 0-1 km shear values of around 15 knots, the
higher MLCAPE values, and LCL heights under 1000 feet will
support at least a low-end chance of a few spinups/tornadoes.
The Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather has been
expanded to include the entire CWA, meaning confidence in
organized/stronger storms has increased a bit. Heavy rainfall
will likely accompany the convection and the multiple rounds of
heavy rain in just a couple of days may make it a bit easier for
flooding to occur Saturday afternoon/evening. By early Sunday
morning, two-day rainfall totals of about .75 to 1.25 inches
will occur across the majority of the area with locally higher
amounts certainly possible where the heaviest rainfall rates
occur. Additional rises on area rivers are likely.

KEY MESSAGE #3:
A pattern shift with colder temperatures is anticipated behind
Saturday`s cold front. Highs will be in the 40s and lower 50s
Sunday and Monday with the coldest highs in the 30s and lower
40s expected on Tuesday. Periods of lake effect/enhanced showers
are possible through early Tuesday and rain may mix with snow at
times, especially Sunday night and Monday night. Temperatures
will trend warmer for mid to late week and a period of
widespread dry weather is expected late Tuesday through
Wednesday before rain shower chance return on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Mainly VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon, though
anticipate some non-VFR vsby drops by late afternoon/early
evening in scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly
near the US-30 corridor (MFD/CAK/YNG). A more widespread area of
showers and thunderstorms is likely to develop later this
evening and overnight as a warm front lifts back north, with the
highest confidence for non-VFR impacts at TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE. A
brief period of MVFR or IFR ceilings may immediately follow the
front early Saturday morning, before widespread improvement to
VFR is expected by mid-Saturday morning. Attention then turns
towards developing showers and thunderstorms along a cold front
Saturday afternoon which will need to be included in the next
TAF package.

Southwest winds remain elevated this afternoon, 12 to 18 knots
with periodic gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Winds will gradually
shift towards the west, then north to northeast late this
evening as a trough slides south through the area, stalling near
the US-30 corridor. Winds will quickly become south once again
late Saturday morning as this boundary lifts back north as a
warm front.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely on Saturday in showers and
thunderstorms along a cold front. Some thunderstorms may produce
strong winds. Low ceilings may linger through Sunday. Non-VFR
may return Monday and Monday night in rain and/or snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will briefly increase around 15 to 20 knots out of the east
Saturday morning ahead of a lifting warm front, though the main
marine concern continues to be on Sunday as a cold front ushers in
west winds of 20 to 22 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed
on Sunday, especially across the central and eastern basins. In
addition, strong winds may accompany some of the showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front on Saturday. A secondary
cold front will cross the lake Monday night into Tuesday with
confidence increasing for additional Small Craft Advisories as winds
shift towards the north to northwest, 20 to 22 knots. Quieter marine
conditions will return on Wednesday as high pressure builds across
the region.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn