Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

609
FXUS61 KCLE 271747
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
147 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast. Still anticipating
a prolonged period of heat and high humidity this upcoming week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Periodic rain showers are expected and isolated thunderstorms
are possible through this early evening.

2.) Warmer and more humid weather is expected this Sunday through
Friday. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially
on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
W`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our
region today before a high pressure ridge aloft begins to build
from the Upper Midwest and vicinity tonight. At the surface, a
front lingers in vicinity of the OH River Valley as multiple
surface lows move generally E`ward along the front through
tonight. Simultaneously, the surface portion of the aforementioned
ridge builds slowly into our CWA from the western Great Lakes
and vicinity. Scattered rain showers, steady to heavy at times,
are expected through this afternoon courtesy of moist isentropic
ascent associated with the warm conveyor belt of a primary low-
level low along the aforementioned front. Periods of rain
should be more-frequent roughly along and south of U.S. Route 30
since that portion of our CWA will be located closer to the
surface front, frontal surface lows, and associated stronger
synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible late this morning into the afternoon since the
isentropic ascent may release weak, yet sufficient and primarily
elevated CAPE. Isolated to scattered showers and any isolated
thunderstorms are expected to end generally from WNW to ESE late
this afternoon through mid-evening as the warm conveyor belt
exits generally E`ward and the ridge at the surface and aloft
continues to build from the west. Additional rainfall should be
0.10" to 0.25" roughly along and south of U.S. Route 30 and
0.10" or less elsewhere in our CWA. Widespread dry weather is
then expected through tonight amidst stabilizing subsidence
accompanying the ridge.

Intervals of sunshine and sufficient daytime heating should
allow highs to reach the 70`s to lower 80`s late this afternoon.
The coolest highs are expected over and within several miles of
~70F Lake Erie due to lake breeze development late this morning
through early evening. Overnight lows should reach the upper
50`s to upper 60`s around daybreak Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A warming trend and increase in humidity are expected this
Sunday through Friday as the mid/upper-level ridge axis shifts
from near the MS Valley to near the eastern Great Lakes and the
Atlantic coast of the FL peninsula. This will cause our region
to become located within a synoptic-scale low-level warm/moist
air advection regime from the Gulf as we become located along
the western flank of the surface portion of the ridge, especially
starting on Monday. Daytime highs should reach the mid 70`s to
mid 80`s on Sunday. On Monday, lows mainly in the 60`s around
daybreak should be followed by late afternoon highs mainly in
the mid 80`s to mid 90`s. The coolest highs on Sunday and Monday
are expected over and within several miles of Lake Erie due to
lake breeze development each late morning through early evening.
Maximum heat indices are forecast to be near 100F in NW OH,
inland from Lake Erie, on Monday. Forecast trends will be
monitored for the possible and eventual need for a Heat
Advisory.

Tuesday through Friday should feature morning lows mainly in the
70`s around daybreak and late afternoon highs mainly in the
upper 80`s to upper 90`s. Daily maximum heat indices may reach
the roughly 100F to 105F range in portions of our CWA. Stay
tuned to forecast updates and possible hot weather alerts.
However, the thermodynamic environment and synoptic-scale MSLP
gradient should support Lake Erie lake breeze development each
late morning through early evening, especially along and near
the shore from northeastern Cuyahoga County through Erie County,
PA. Thus, mesoscale refinements to the daily high temperature
and maximum heat index forecast are likely in the coming days.

Current odds favor dry weather on Sunday through Wednesday
night as relatively-strong and stabilizing subsidence associated
with the ridge continues to impact our region. Occasional
showers and thunderstorms are possible this Thursday through
Friday as subtle shortwave disturbances ripple generally
eastward through the ridge aloft, are accompanied by surface
trough axes, and low-level convergence/moist ascent along the
surface trough axes release at least weak to moderate
instability. Some storms may be strong to severe as the
aforementioned shortwave disturbances interact with the ridge
aloft and tighten the isobaric height gradient aloft, which in
turn should yield at least moderate deep-layer bulk shear.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Fairly mixed conditions across the region this afternoon with VFR
mainly across the northern terminals and MVFR with L/IFR mixed in to
the south. Some showers are moving across Eastern Ohio that are
bringing ceilings and visibility down to IFR and LIFR at times,
though generally have stayed in MVFR. Conditions should improve over
the next few hours in those locations and be VFR by 00Z this
evening. For tomorrow morning, an inversion will set up along the
southern terminals that could allow for some patchy fog to develop.
Depending on how much cloud cover clears out tonight will determine
the extent of the fog, though at this point, the expectation is
there will be little clearing so opted to continue with 2SM in the
areas where patchy fog is expected. Conditions will clear around 13Z
tomorrow morning with some lingering lower ceilings through the
early afternoon. Winds across the region will be light through the
TAF period, generally out of the east-northeast at 5-10 knots, with
calmer winds expected overnight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Sunday morning into early afternoon
in fog/mist and low ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak low pressure moves to the south of Lake Erie today as high
pressure will build in across the region this evening from the
north. Conditions across the lake will be rather quiet for the next
several days with winds out of the northeast at around 10 knots,
weakening to 5-10 knots tonight with the high building in. Monday
evening, a warm front will move north across the region and winds
will shift to be out of the south-southwest and increase to around
10 knots. High pressure builds into the region next week with quiet
conditions expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hotter and more humid weather is expected this Monday through Friday.
Record warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
06-29   100(1952)      96(1934)       94(2012)       98(1952)       99(1933)       90(2021)
06-30   97(1953)       94(1970)       95(1941)       96(1913)       94(1942)       92(1930)
07-01   98(1931)       98(1931)       95(2002)       97(1931)       96(1931)       94(2018)
07-02   98(2011)       97(1931)       97(1954)       98(1931)       98(1931)       94(1963)
07-03   100(1911)      93(2020)       98(1949)       97(1911)       98(1898)       93(1934)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23