Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

069
FXUS61 KCLE 160011
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
711 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The potential for fog overnight has increased across eastern
portions of the forecast area. Have added a mention of patchy dense
fog to the forecast. The potential for strong southwesterly wind
speeds and gusts on Wednesday has also increased.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of fog, including patchy dense fog, is expected to develop
overnight. Visibility may occasionally fall to one mile or less
along and east of the I-71 corridor.

2) Periods of rain showers expected through the forecast period.
Areawide showers accompanied by gusty winds are expected on
Wednesday. Additional chances of rain/snow mix towards the end of
the week.

3) Temperatures warm to above average values through the week,
turning cooler towards next weekend. Extended period of above
average temperatures resulting in melting of remaining snow pack and
the possibility of localized ice jams on area rivers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Light winds under building high pressure coupled with saturated low
levels will lead to areas of fog, including patchy dense fog, to
develop this evening through Monday morning. Latest HREF guidance
shows probabilities of 1/2 mile or less visibility ranging between 40-
60% across western zones and up to 80-100% along and east of I-71. A
Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for a portion of the forecast area
overnight tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Multiple periods of showers will continue through the forecast
period. Scattered rain showers this afternoon will exit this evening
as the parent low pressure drifts eastward. The next chance for rain
comes Monday night into Tuesday as a weak shortwave aloft pushes
across the Great Lakes region. Any slight chance to chance PoPs will
be confined to Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. QPF will
be negligible.

A more potent low pressure system will glide east across the Upper
Midwest on Wednesday while lifting a warm front northeast across the
local area. The low will push east into the eastern Great Lakes on
Thursday before dragging a cold front east across the local area
Thursday night into Friday. Precipitation ahead of the cold
front will remain as all rain given the warm temperatures aloft
and at the surface behind the warm front. Can`t rule out a
rumble of thunder and gusty showers as surface based CAPE values
rise to the 400-800 J/kg range and a strong LLJ ~40-45 knots
moves overhead Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.
Initial push of rain showers exits late Wednesday night with a
dry window expected through Thursday afternoon. Chance to likely
PoPs return Thursday night through the weekend. Expect p-types
to be a mix of rain/snow as temperatures behind the cold front
on Friday night will hover around freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Upper level ridge will build across the eastern CONUS early
this week. Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow will lead
to 850mb temperatures rising to +5C to +8C across the region,
roughly the 90th to 95th percentile when compared to
climatology. A prolonged period of above average temperatures is
anticipated beneath this upper level ridge. Daily highs in the
low to mid 50s Monday and Tuesday will top out in the upper 50s
to lower 60s by Wednesday behind a warm front. For reference,
average temperatures in mid to late February are generally in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.

This extended period of above normal temperatures may lead to
localized impacts due to the melting of the existing snow pack and
ice jams. Will continue to monitor the potential for ice jams over
the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
The weather pattern is very favorable to fog and low stratus
tonight as clouds move out of the region and warm advection
spills in with ample low level moisture and a melting snow pack.
Some of the typical valley locations are already starting to
develop fog and stratus and will expect this to only intensify
overnight. Therefore, will start all of the terminals at VFR
with no or high clouds. Trends will remain steady state for a
bit before tumbling quickly into IFR and LIFR for all terminals.
Conditions will be very slow to improve after daybreak with fog
and stratus mixing out in the 15 to 17z window as winds start to
pick up from the southwest. High pressure continuing into the
region will allow for VFR to persist with clearing conditions
and southwest flow.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A sliver of open water has developed just east of the islands
and pulled away from the shore from around Vermilion to
Cleveland. Otherwise, the lake is primarily ice-covered.
Variable winds less than 10kts become offshore Monday/Monday
night increasing to 10-15kts, then back to variable through
Tuesday as a frontal boundary approaches and then becomes
stationary near the southern shore of Lake Erie. Winds increase
out of the south to 15-25kts Tuesday night, and then back to
southwesterly late Wednesday into Wednesday night 15-25kts with
another low pressure system moving through the region. Low
pressure with a cold front is expected at the end of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...26