Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

841
FXUS61 KCLE 131748
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
148 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday as a cold
front pushes east across the area. Some storms may be severe along
and east of I71.

2) A cool down is on the horizon with near normal temperatures
returning Sunday and persisting into next week.

3) An active weather pattern sticks around through next week,
resulting in the potential for multiple rounds of rain and
storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A weak high pressure will drift east late today as a broad upper
level trough begins to dig south from Canada. Along the fringes of
this trough, multiple shortwaves are expected to move along it. The
first of the disturbances is expected to move east on Sunday,
dragging an associated cold front across the area. Given increased
southwesterly flow ahead of the boundary, a brief period of WAA and
increased moisture advection will allow for support for shower and
thunderstorm development on Sunday. In addition, a LLJ is expected
to nudge north Sunday afternoon in conjunction with mid-level
energy. This should provide additional support for storm
development, especially across the eastern portion of the CWA. There
remains quite a bit of divergence amongst models in handling the
Sunday afternoon convection as much of the forecast hinders on
whether or not the warm sector of the low is able to destabilize
enough to enhance area convection or if the timing of the boundary
inhibits some of that destabilization. If the boundary slows at all,
confidence will increase in storms becoming severe as diurnal
heating will aid in increased instability. Given the atmospheric
setup, any convection that does develop should primarily be in a
linear fashion with the strong winds the primary concern, but quick
spin up or two cannot be ruled out.

Though current confidence is fairly low in the severe potential and
hinders on the timing of the boundary, there is high confidence in
thunderstorms pushing east throughout the day, gradually drying from
west to east late Sunday. Will have to continue to monitor the
evolution of the boundary in coming model runs, but to highlight the
potential risk at this point, SPC has put portions of the Mahoning
Valley in a Day 2 Slight Risk with a Marginal Risk extending as far
west at the I71 corridor. If the boundary begins to slow, would not
be surprised if the slight is shifted even further west.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
As the aforementioned robust cold front pushes east on Sunday, a
much cooler airmass will push in behind it, allowing for below to
near normal temperatures to return for much of next week. Initially
on Sunday, high temperatures will be limited given widespread
precipitation expected with highs only expected to climb into the
mid 70s. Overnight lows on Sunday will be much cooler as
temperatures fall into the upper 40s in NW PA and the low to mid 50s
elsewhere. Temperatures through Tuesday will be comparable before
slowing warming back into the 80s beginning on Wednesday through the
end of the week.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...

An active pattern is expected to continue through much of next week
as a broad upper level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves
slowly meanders east. This set up will present multiple chances of
showers and thunderstorms throughout the week, supported by mid-
level energy and increased moisture due to persistent southwest flow
east of the trough axis. The first shortwave will push across the
area on Tuesday, resulting in showers. On Thursday, a more robust
surface low pressure support by a shortwave looks to move into the
area, pushing a strong cold front east. On both days there is the
potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms and will have to
keep an eye on them in future model runs to discern any severe
potential associated with them.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
W`erly flow aloft and embedded/subtle disturbances affect our
region through 18Z/Sun. At the surface, a high pressure ridge
continues to exit E`ward before a cold front begins to sweep
SE`ward through our region after ~14Z/Sun and nears a KERI to
KCAK to KCMH line by 18Z/Sun. Behind the front, another ridge
builds from the northern Great Plains. Ahead of the cold front,
our regional surface winds trend SW`erly to WSW`erly, while
W`erly to NW`erly winds are expected behind the front. Surface
wind speeds are expected to be around 10 to 15 knots through
the TAF period. Wind gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are expected at
times, especially through ~23Z/Sat and behind the cold front.

Dry weather and VFR are expected for the time being. As the cold
front approaches from the northwest, scattered rain showers are
expected to overspread northern OH and NW PA generally from the
west between ~06Z/Sun and ~13Z/Sun. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected along and just ahead of the cold front after ~10Z/Sun.
Brief MVFR to IFR are expected with these showers and especially
storms. The storms may produce brief/erratic surface wind gusts
up to 30 to 50 knots. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings and
scattered rain showers are expected to accompany the upper-reaches
of the front for several hours following the surface cold front
passage.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with thunderstorms and/or rain showers
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Periodic showers and
thunderstorms with non-VFR are forecast this Tuesday afternoon
through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds 6 to 12 knots are expected through today with
winds increasing by a few knots overnight into early Sunday. A
cold front will cross the lake on Sunday, allowing winds to
shift to the northwest. A period of winds to 15 to 20 knots is
likely in the western basin of Lake Erie Sunday
afternoon/evening, but confidence in Small Craft Advisory
conditions occurring is low at this point. Headlines may be
needed if winds trend a bit higher.

From there, Small Craft Advisories/Beach Hazards Statements may
be needed as southwest flow deepens ahead of an approaching
strong cold front Wednesday. NBM guidance suggests that winds
could reach or exceed 30 knots on Thursday so will need to
continue to monitor forecast trends in the upcoming days.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...15