Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

247
FXUS61 KCLE 231947
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
247 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast, with generally
an additional 1 to 4 inches of snow expected through tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake enhanced snow will continue through tonight across the
snowbelt, with the greatest travel impacts expected generally
south of the I-90 corridor. Single digit wind chills will
briefly return tonight into Tuesday morning.

2) A clipper system will bring another round of snow across the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the highest amounts
found across Northwest Pennsylvania.

3) Another low pressure system will move east through the Ohio
Valley on Thursday which could bring another round of snow
across the area, though confidence in the track remains
uncertain.

4) A brief warm-up is expected by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Lake enhanced snow, moderate to heavy at times, continues across
the snowbelt this afternoon, aided by mid-level synoptic
moisture stemming from the Nor`Easter off of New England. The
latest ALPW imagery suggests the low and mid-level moisture
support will gradually weaken through this evening as an upper-
level ridge begins to build east into the Great Lakes. The most
persistent lake enhanced snow continues to be found generally
south of the I-90 corridor, in the favored inland upslope areas
aided by north to northwest boundary layer flow. Travel impacts
remain fairly isolated this afternoon given the high late
February sun angle, though conditions may briefly deteriorate
later this evening after sunset, particularly across far
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Additional snowfall
amounts through tonight will range between 1 and 4 inches.

Mainly single digit wind chills will return across the area
tonight into Tuesday morning, with perhaps some isolated sub-
zero values found across Northwest Pennsylvania.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
A clipper system will sweep southeast through the Great Lakes
Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a brief period of snow
across the area. The highest snow totals are expected across
Northwest Pennsylvania, most likely ranging between 2 to 4
inches. Elsewhere, marginal surface temperatures and lower
confidence in precipitation coverage will likely result in an
inch or less of snow. By Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will
climb into the upper 30s to perhaps lower 40s near the US-30
corridor as the clipper system briefly lifts a warm front north
through the area. However, temperatures will quickly fall back
into the 20s or perhaps upper teens Wednesday night as a cold
front moves east through the area.


KEY MESSAGE 3...
A low pressure system will move east through the Ohio Valley on
Thursday, with medium to high confidence on the dominant precipitation
type being snow. However, there remains uncertainty on the track
and northern extent of precipitation coverage, evident by low
probabilities (10 to 30%) for the area to receive at least 2
inches of snow. This system will continue to be monitored over
the next couple of days, though the overall trend appears to be
a southward shift in the low track.


KEY MESSAGE 4...
A split flow upper-level regime will persist across the Central
and Eastern CONUS towards the end of the week into the weekend.
Surface high pressure in place across the Ohio Valley will lead
to mostly sunny skies with slightly above average temperatures
in the 40s on Friday to the upper 40s and lower 50s by
Saturday. Temperatures will drop back below average into the 30s
behind a cold front on Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Predominately MVFR conditions are being observed across the area
as a surface trough lingers over the region this afternoon.
Ceilings generally between 1500-2500ft will persist through
tonight with VFR vsbys at terminals not receiving snow. There is
a chance of some brief MVFR visibilities with BLSN, however the
bulk of diminished visibilities should be isolated to NEOH and
NWPA where continued lake effect snow will impact terminals
through tonight. In the heaviest band, IFR/LIFR conditions are
possible with 3-4SM expected in the lighter bands. Further vsby
reduction will also be associated with BLSN at these terminals
until the winds weaken later tonight. Tonight, lake effect will
gradually end from west to east with all snow showers ending by
Tuesday morning. Most terminals should rebound to VFR ceilings
by the end of the period with the exception of KERI.

Northwest winds of 12 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30
knots are expected through at least 00Z Tuesday. After 00Z,
winds from the northwest will weaken to 8-12 knots with any
gusts isolated to the immediate lakeshore area. By mid to late
Tuesday morning, winds will have shifted to become southwesterly
at 10-12 knots with some gusts up to 20 knots possible across
western terminals. These gusts will become more widespread after
this period.

Outlook...Non-VFR in snow and low clouds expected Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning. Non-VFR may return again on
Thursday as another system moves through the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Windy northwest flow as a result of a lingering surface trough
will continue to break up the fast ice that had developed,
leaving some open water areas across Lake Erie. These northwest
winds of 20-25 knots today will gradually weaken to 10-15 knots
tonight before a ridge builds over the area and winds shift to
southwesterly on Tuesday. Winds will once again strengthen
across the lake to 20-25 knots, Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
morning before a cold front pushes east Wednesday morning,
shifting these gusty winds to more westerly. Calmer marine
conditions will arrive Wednesday night with west winds of 10-15
knots expected which will persist into Friday.

While much of the lake does remain ice covered and Small Craft
Advisories remain suspended, waves in ice free areas may build
to 3-6 feet during the strongest periods of wind. In addition,
with every wind shift will come additional movement of ice which
may close current shipping lanes or result in ice breaking off
of the shoreline.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ009-
     019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ010>014-
     020-021-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ001-003.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ002.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04