Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

234
FXUS61 KCLE 080447
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1147 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes have been made to the forecast and the key
messages remain valid.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Patchy fog and drizzle remain across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania through early tonight.

2) Rain, gusty winds, and unseasonably warm temperatures are
expected areawide Thursday night through Friday.

3) Rain will change over to lake effect snow Saturday night,
with light snow accumulations leading to minor road impacts
Sunday and Sunday night in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Areawide stratus persists across the area as low-level moisture
remains trapped underneath a temperature inversion. Patchy fog
and drizzle (where moisture depth persists) continue across
parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Drizzle was
extended in the forecast through 10 PM when most model guidance
has less than 1000m moisture depth, though foggy/misty
conditions may linger there through most of the night.

The western edge of the stratus deck is located from north-
central Indiana towards southwest Ohio. Should dry air continue
to be advected northeastward, with mostly clear skies expanding
eastward tonight to the I-77 corridor by 06Z or so. The most
recent model guidance has been trending towards more radiational
fog developing late tonight into Friday morning across parts of
Northwest Ohio and central Ohio, a trend that is most noteworthy
with the 15Z HRRR and later.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Low pressure will track northeast from the mid-Missippi Valley
and across the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday.
A brief period of light rain showers are expected Thursday
night with the warm front, followed by a better area of light to
moderate rain showers traversing the region, primarily during
the daytime hours on Friday. This system has trended a touch
weaker and slower, causing this forecast to include slightly
less QPF and a slowing of the PoP timing- the biggest impact
being a lowering of PoPs Thursday night into Friday morning.

A strong low-level jet is projected to move over the forecast
area late Thursday night night into Friday. Strong south to
southwest winds are possible at the surface within the warm
sector. A strong temperature inversion may limit the stronger
winds Thursday night, but there is a very brief window ahead of
and with the rain showers/cold front Friday morning when these
strong winds aloft could be mixed down to the surface. Current
forecast max wind gusts are forecast to be around 30-35 mph,
though there is a low chance for gusts as high as 45 mph, which
would be enough to knock down small tree branches and cause
sporadic power outages.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast to occur on Friday,
with record temperatures possible, especially at Toledo and
Mansfield where the current forecast is projected to break the
daily max temperature for January 9th.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Most model guidance has another low pressure system impacting
the region again on Saturday/Sunday, this time taking a track
across our forecast area. This will result in periodic rain
showers during the day Saturday, with relatively low impact.

On Saturday night, the low will lift northeast and strong cold
air advection will dramatically bring temperatures below
freezing Saturday night. Any residual rain that occurred during
the day Saturday could freeze as a result of the quickly
dropping temperatures, with patchy slick spots possible,
especially on untreated surfaces.

Low-level moisture wrapping around the departing system, along
with steep low-level, will result in at least a few snow showers
areawide during the day Sunday. The focus will be across
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania where lake effect snow
may lead to 1-2 inches of snow accumulations, which could lead
to very minor road impacts. Lake effect snow will taper off
Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Widespread MVFR ceilings remain in place across terminals with
patchy MVFR to IFR visibilities in mist. The general trend will
be improving conditions to VFR through this morning as a ridge
of high pressure continues to build over the region. The next
low pressure system approaches from the west tonight and will
lift a warm front across terminals bringing rain showers to the
region tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected to return from west
to east in these rain showers.

Light and variable winds tonight will eventually become
southerly at 5-10 knots late Thursday morning. Southerly to
southwesterly wind gusts will begin to increase to 20-25 knots
from west to east between 22Z/Thu and 02Z/Fri as the low
approaches.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of rain and/or snow
late Thursday afternoon through this Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Ice cover is still present in most of the nearshore waters of
Lake Erie and across the western basin.

A ridge affects Lake Erie through tonight as the core of the ridge
moves from the Mid OH Valley to the Delmarva Peninsula. Accordingly,
W`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots back to S`erly. On Thursday the
ridge exits E`ward from the Lake Erie region as a low deepens and
wobbles NE`ward from eastern CO toward the Upper MS Valley.
Accordingly, S`erly winds back to SE`erly and freshen gradually to
around 10 to nearly 20 knots. Waves should remain 3 feet or less.
The potent low should wobble NE`ward from the Upper MS Valley to
southern QC Thursday night through Friday and weaken slowly.
Accordingly, a warm front should sweep NE`ward across Lake Erie
Thursday night and cause SE`erly winds to veer to S`erly as wind
speeds freshen to around 15 to 25 knots. Waves should build to as
large as 4 to 8 feet. The low`s trailing cold front should sweep
SE`ward across Lake Erie on Friday. The front`s passage should cause
S`erly to SW`erly winds around 15 to 25 knots to veer to NW`erly and
ease to around 10 to 20 knots as a ridge builds from the northern
Great Lakes, behind the front. Waves should subside gradually to 5
feet or less by sunset Friday evening.

The ridge should continue to build briefly from the northern Great
Lakes and ON/QC border area Friday night. This should cause NW`erly
winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to NE`erly to E`erly over Lake
Erie. Waves should subside further to 3 feet or less. On Saturday
through Saturday night, a low should wobble NE`ward from near the
Lower OH Valley to near Lake Huron and deepen. A warm front should
sweep NE`ward across Lake Erie on Saturday, which should allow
NE`erly to E`erly winds to veer to SW`erly while wind speeds freshen
from around 5 to 15 knots to around 15 to 25 knots. Waves should
build to as large as 3 to 6 feet. During Saturday evening through
Saturday night, the deepening low`s trailing cold front should sweep
E`ward across Lake Erie and cause SW`erly winds to veer toward
W`erly as wind speeds freshen to around 20 to 30 knots. Wind speeds
may reach gale-force at times and abormally-low water levels may
materialize in the western basin. Waves should build to as large as
7 to 14 feet.

On Sunday, a trough should linger over the Lake Erie region.
WSW`erly to WNW`erly winds should ease slowly from around 20 to 30
knots to around 15 to 25 knots by nightfall. Waves should subside
gradually, but be as large as 5 to 10 feet by sunset. During Sunday
night through Monday, a ridge should affect Lake Erie as the core of
the ridge moves from near the Ozarks to near the Great Smoky
Mountains. In response, W`erly winds should back gradually to
SW`erly as wind speeds fluctuate around 15 to 25 knots. Waves should
subside to 5 feet or less by daybreak Monday. During the remainder
of Monday, waves should rebuild to as large as 4 to 8 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected on Friday with
record high temperatures possible. Here are the record high
temperatures for area climate sites on January 9th:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
01-09   59(1880)       61(1946)       66(1937)       63(1946)       66(1937)       64(1937)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...13
MARINE...Jaszka