Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

949
FXUS61 KCLE 301125
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
625 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A cold weather advisory has been issued for the entire forecast
area from 7 PM tonight to 11 AM Saturday for wind chill values
in the -15 to -24F range. There is a hint of an active winter
weather pattern developing for the middle-to-end of next week
that could bring widespread additional snow and travel impacts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Very cold weather will persist through Sunday night with
nightly air temperatures near or below zero and wind chills of
10 degrees below zero or colder expected. Air temperatures may
approach record low values on this morning and Saturday morning.
The cold weather will continue to pose a significant risk of
exposure to people and animals in addition to damage to
infrastructure.

2) There are intermittent light snow chances through Saturday
night. There may be some marginal travel impacts with any
repetitive shower activity.

3) There are hints at an active winter weather pattern returning
for the middle and end of next week with systems that could
bring additional accumulating snowfall and associated travel
impacts. Confidence in snow amounts and impacts remain low at
this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Arctic high pressure will continue building south across the
central US today into Saturday and allow for cold air to be
reinforced across the region. However, some element of a surface
trough will remain through the eastern Great Lakes and may allow
for some intermittent clouds and snow showers that will keep
temperatures slightly elevated compared clearing areas. Tonight
will be the coldest night of this stretch of cold weather with
low temperatures in clear locations falling below zero to as low
as -12F. This would be record breaking cold for January 30 and
31 and the current records are noted in the climate section
below. There will be very limited wind tonight with the surface
high to the west, but any bit of wind over 4 kts will allow for
wind chills in the -15 to -20F range. Therefore, have gone
ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory for the entire forecast
area. Will fully admit that there will be some forecast zones
that will be impacted by clouds or not have enough of a wind to
force colder wind chill values. However, a large portion of the
area will have wind chills at or below -15F at some point
tonight and opted for the simpler message.

Temperatures will remain under 20 degrees through Sunday night
with lows on Saturday night once again below zero and lows on
Sunday night ranging from 5F to -5F across the area. There will
be slightly more elevated wind on Saturday night with high
pressure to the southwest and a potent system moving up the East
Coast and there could be the need for additional Cold Weather
Advisories.

With 3 additional days of temperatures of 20 degrees or colder
expected, the strain from the cold will continue to increase
daily. This prolonged stretch of cold conditions will result in
increased infrastructure problems, including burst pipes and
dead car batteries. There will be additional stress on people
and animals, as well. Folks should continue to limit time
outdoors and wear protective clothing to prevent frostbite and
other impacts from cold exposure, including hypothermia. Pets
and other animals should have limited time outdoors.

The weather pattern will start to "moderate" on Monday with high
pressure shifting east and temperatures returning to the 20s and
less frigid nightly lows in the teens. While any chances for
Cold Weather Advisories with wind chills or below zero
temperatures will disappear with the change in the weather
pattern, there could still be some residual stress on
infrastructure as temperatures will remain below freezing
through the foreseeable future.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
As evidenced by intermittent snow showers on Thursday, there
still is a trough over the Great Lakes region along with some
upstream lake effect snow that will allow for some light and
intermittent snow showers to continue through Saturday night. A
little bit of dry air will push through this morning with high
pressure building from the northwest and allow for a brief
period of no snow and less clouds. Tonight, the upper trough
will slide south through the region and should allow for snow to
flare up again for tonight through Saturday night. Still believe
that new snow amounts will be low and under one inch but have
some low PoPs and clouds to characterize that we could continue
to see some additional accumulations and some marginal travel
impacts as snow will be quick to stick to the frozen roadways
across the region.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Over the last three runs of the deterministic GFS, there have
been hints of a low pressure system moving through the Ohio
Valley. This would put the local area on the cold side of the
system and allow for widespread accumulating snowfall. Other
global models do not yet have this system or signal, and the
origin of the upper level support of this system in the GFS is
still over the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Therefore, there is very
low confidence on this system at this time and potential impacts
in the region.

For late next week into the weekend, there are signals in all of
the global models in another intrusion of colder air into the
region, including another cold low pressure system that would
bring snow to the Great Lakes region and another surge of frigid
temperatures well below normal. While this cold signal has
remained persistent, there are still many details to iron out
and confidence in the snow and cold are low right now. However,
it reaffirms that this prolonged cold spell will not be breaking
anytime soon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
At the surface, a high pressure ridge continues to build from
the north-central United States and vicinity through 12Z/Sat.
Our regional surface winds trend variable in direction and
around 5 to 10 knots in magnitude. Isolated to broken low-level
clouds with bases mainly near 3.5kft to 5kft AGL are expected
through the TAF period. Greatest low-level cloud coverage
expected this afternoon and early evening due to diurnal
cumulus cloud development.

Mainly dry weather and VFR visibility are forecast through the
TAF period. However, there are two exceptions:

- Areas of mist with MVFR to IFR visibility are expected until
  ~15Z/Fri in NE OH and NW PA, including at/near KERI, KYNG, and
  KCAK.

- Light lake-effect snow with mainly MVFR ceilings/visibility is
  possible over and generally south of mainly ice-covered Lake
  Erie after ~08Z/Sat amidst a NW`erly to N`erly mean low-level
  flow of cold air and an uptick in low-level moisture.

Outlook...Periodic non-VFR due to low clouds and/or snow expected
through this Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind speeds are expected to be around 5 to 15 knots through this
Tuesday. Primarily N`erly to W`erly winds are forecast on Lake
Erie through Sunday as a ridge builds from the north-central
United States and vicinity. The ridge begins to exit E`ward
Sunday night through Monday, which will cause W`erly winds to
shift to SW`erly. SW`erly winds veer to W`erly Monday night with
the E`ward passage of a very weak cold front. Winds should become
variable in direction on Tuesday as another ridge builds from
the Upper Midwest and vicinity. The continued presence of a cold
air mass and the relatively-weak winds will allow extensive ice
cover on Lake Erie to expand and thicken further through early
next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record cold low temperatures are possible on Friday and Saturday.
Here are the daily record cold low temperatures for January 30th
and 31st:

Date    Toledo      Mansfield    Cleveland    Akron        Youngstown   Erie
01-30   -10(2019)   -10(2019)    -4(1873)     -6(1965)     -8(1965)     -4(2019)
01-31   -10(2019)    -7(2019)    -5(1971)     -5(1948)     -9(1948)     -6(1899)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Saturday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Saturday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka