Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

211
FXUS61 KCLE 311056
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
556 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold temperatures are still expected through this weekend, but
the need for a Cold Weather Advisory for tonight into Sunday has
diminished with slightly warmer temperatures and wind chills.
The previously mentioned mid-week system moving through the Ohio
Valley continues to trend south and local impacts are no longer
anticipated. There is increasing confidence on cold and winter
weather late next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold weather will continue through Sunday night with
temperatures below 20 degrees and overnight lows near to below
zero. Wind chills of 10 degrees below zero or colder are
expected this morning and tonight into Sunday morning and will
allow for continued frostbite and exposure risks.

2) Light snow chances remain through tonight and again on Monday,
which could prompt some marginal travel impacts.

3) There is increasing potential for active winter weather late
next week. Accumulating snowfall and travel impacts are
possible, but confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Arctic high pressure to the west and an upper trough moving
through the Great Lakes region will continue to reinforce cold
air over the area through Sunday. Low temperatures this morning
will be near record values for several locations and current
records for official climate locations are listed below. Winds
remain light at 5 kts or less. With the cold temperatures, just
a 4 to 5 kt wind is allowing for wind chills to verify the
ongoing Cold Weather Advisory that is valid until 11 AM. High
temperatures will remain 20 degrees or colder through Sunday
night, making the 8th or 9th consecutive day below 20 degrees
for many folks. This will only continue to amplify any
infrastructure issues across the region with the sustained cold.

The main forecast consideration this morning is with
temperatures and wind chills tonight into Sunday. With high
pressure off more to the southwest and with the upper trough
supporting some clouds and very light snow showers, lows may be
a bit elevated compared to this morning in the 5 to -5F range.
Winds will also be a bit more elevated in the 5 to 8 kt range
across the area. This combination will allow for wind chills in
the -5 to -13F range at this time and will forgo issuing another
Cold Weather Advisory for tonight into Sunday morning. If clouds
and snow do not materialize today, then this may need to be
reconsidered with the next forecast package.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
There continues to be a low end threat of light snow showers
today with an upper trough moving through the region coincident
with a small pocket of low level moisture. When combined with
some small element of lake enhancement from a mostly frozen Lake
Erie and some distant connection to Lake Huron, there are likely
going to be some light snow showers and clouds present across
the forecast area today. Overall, snow accumulations look very
minor but the forecast has been edited to give everyone a minor
20-30% PoP and a trace to a few tenths of snow.

For Monday into Monday night, there will be a warm front that
will move through the region on the northwest side of high
pressure. This system will allow for another round of light snow
showers for the entire forecast area. This front appears to move
quickly through the area and may also have just some limited
moisture. Therefore, have 20-30% PoPs and minor accumulations
for now.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
While mentioned in the past two forecast discussions, the
potential mid-week system moving through the Ohio Valley has
trended south. There are no longer any snow or winter weather
impacts expected on Wednesday with a dry forecast in place.

However, the late week signals for another sustaining cold air
mass and a potential system with widespread snowfall continue
with another deep upper level trough setting up over the eastern
CONUS. Any impacts would be Friday and beyond, but there are
still many details to iron out, as this system is 6-7 days out.
For now, the confidence in the magnitude of snow and cold are
low but the potential exists for impacts. Moreover, this
reinforcing cold air late in the week may allow for most of the
area to remain below freezing for over two weeks, which hasn`t
happened since February 2021.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
At the surface, a weak trough axis will drift S`ward across our
region through about 17Z/Sat. Otherwise, a ridge builds from
the north-central United States and vicinity through 12Z/Sun.
Our regional surface wind speeds are expected to be around 5 to
10 knots through the TAF period. Wind direction is expected to
trend variable ahead of the trough axis and NW`erly to N`erly
behind the trough axis.

Widespread stratocumuli with bases near 2kft to 5kft AGL continue
to overspread our region generally from north to south through
midday. From midday through 12Z/Sun, widespread ceilings near
1.5kft to 3kft AGL are expected over northern OH and NW PA.
These stratocumuli should produce periodic light snow,
especially this morning through early evening, due to a
combination of convergence/moist ascent along the surface trough
axis, self-destructive sunshine, and the potential for limited
lake-effect snow to stream generally S`ward over/downwind of
mainly ice-covered Lake Erie. Primarily VFR visibility is
expected with these light snow showers, but they may reduce
visibility to MVFR on occasion.

Outlook...Periodic non-VFR due to low clouds and/or snow
expected through this Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind speeds are expected to be around 5 to 15 knots through this
Wednesday. Primarily N`erly to W`erly winds are forecast on
Lake Erie through Sunday as a ridge builds from the north-central
United States and vicinity. The ridge begins to exit E`ward
Sunday night through Monday, which will cause W`erly winds to
shift to SW`erly. SW`erly winds veer to W`erly Monday night
through Tuesday as a very weak cold front drifts E`ward across
Lake Erie. Behind the front, W`erly to N`erly winds are expected
through Wednesday as another ridge builds from the north-central
United States and vicinity. The continued presence of a cold
air mass and the relatively-weak winds will allow extensive ice
cover on Lake Erie to expand and thicken further through the
middle of next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record cold low temperatures are possible this morning. Here
are the current records for January 31st:

Date    Toledo      Mansfield    Cleveland    Akron        Youngstown   Erie
01-31   -10(2019)    -7(2019)    -5(1971)     -5(1948)     -9(1948)     -6(1899)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka