Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

286
FXUS61 KCLE 200255
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
955 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A couple strong to sever thunderstorms are possible this
evening into the overnight with large hail possible. Strong
gusty winds are likely behind a cold front on Friday. A colder
weather pattern will return this weekend and continue into next
week with scattered chances for light snow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A developing storm system over the Ohio Valley will bring the
scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening into overnight.
A couple strong to severe storms may be possible with large hail
as the main threat.

2)Strong gusty winds from the West will follow the passage of a
cold front Friday morning.

3) Colder and seasonable-like temperatures will return this
weekend through next week along with chances for scattered snow
showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The unseasonable mild weather over the region will give fuel to
a developing storm system over the Ohio Valley this evening into
overnight. There is a stalled frontal boundary that stretches
from NWOH eastward along southern lakeshore of Lake Erie this
afternoon. North of this boundary, temperatures are stuck in the
30s. South of this surface boundary, temps have climbed into the
upper 50s and lower 60s. A developing surface low is currently
over the Cornbelt region of the Midwest. This low pressure
system will deepen as it track northeastward towards Lake
Michigan tonight.

Our attention later this evening into the overnight will be
watching the strong to severe convection that is currently
developing over the lower and central Ohio Valley this
afternoon. The better thermodynamics and setup for severe
weather will remain southwest of our local area down closer to
the Ohio River this afternoon and evening. That area of stormy
weather will eventually move northeast into northern Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania late this evening through very early
Friday morning. We are expecting this convection to weaken for
the most part as it moves into our local area later tonight.
Scattered "general" thunderstorms are very possible tonight.
There is a limited or marginal threat for a couple stronger
storms with large hail as the main severe weather hazard.
Average QPF expected this evening through early Friday morning
will be a quarter to half an inch of rainfall.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
A strong low pressure system will deepen to around 988 mb by
later Friday morning over central Lake Michigan. A rather strong
cold front will sweep from west to east across the area Friday
morning. The cold frontal passage will be around 12z for NWOH
and quickly push eastward and pass through NWPA before noon.
Temperatures will start off mild in the 50s Friday morning and
steadily fall after the cold front passage into 30s by late
afternoon and evening. Later in the Friday afternoon and
evening, scattered snow flurries or snow showers will be
possible as the cold air advection and wrap around moisture
from the storm system pushes into the area. There will likely be
a good push of gusty winds up to 45 mph with the actual cold
front pushing through. Gusty west winds will follow the frontal
passage through the rest of the day Friday 20 to 30 mph with
gusts over 40 mph for NEOH and NWPA. We have issued a Wind
Advisory for areas along and west of I-71 for strong winds of 25
to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph possible on Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Forecast model guidance shows a big weather pattern change with
an upper level trough developing over the Great Lakes and
eastern U.S. this weekend into next week. This pattern with the
trough over the region will bring colder but seasonable
temperatures for the middle and end of February. The trough over
the Great Lakes will favor colder air moving over the lakes
which will develop scattered lake effect snow showers this
weekend continuing through Monday night or early Tuesday. Light
snowfall accumulations of a few inches could be possible for the
favor Snowbelt region. High temperatures will generally be in
the 30s and overnight low temperatures in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Southeast winds gusting to 35kts expected at ERI in downsloping
conditions as low pressure approaches, ahead of a cold front.

Elsewhere, fog and low stratus currently at FDY/TOL will have
showers moving into the picture around the 02Z time frame. This
activity is currently in west central Indiana as of 2330Z and is
moving east northeastward, and will need to watch to see if
thunder persists into our area. If so, it will need AMDs to for
the TAF as no terminals are currently carrying TSRA for now.
Otherwise, showers will move through the entire area tonight in
generally a 4 or 5 hour window. For TOL/FDY, this will actually
improve flight conditions, but terminals further east not in low
stratus and fog will have deteriorating flight conditions in
showers. Cold front follows after the showers, and winds
increase out of the southwest gusting to 35kts while ceilings
improve, but lingering MVFR on the back side of the front is not
out of the question towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...This system will move near the east coast Friday night,
with a weak trough lingering over Lake Erie and a ridge building to
the south. Expect periods of non-VFR conditions throughout the
weekend, with the snow returning Sunday and Monday enhanced by a
vigorous coastal low pressure system exiting the Mid Atlantic. High
pressure will build across the region Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A nearly-stationary front should linger near the southern shore of
Lake Erie through tonight. Just north of the front, the air mass is
moist and slightly warmer than ~32F Lake Erie. As a result, fog is
lingering over Lake Erie, especially west of Vermilion, OH, where
the Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect until 4 AM EST Friday.
Easterly winds around 10 knots late this evening become easterly to
southeasterly and freshen to around 10 to 20 knots during the
predawn hours of Friday morning. These freshening winds and the
arrival of rain are expected to scour-out any lingering fog during
the first few predawn hours of Friday morning.

For Friday, a low pressure system will advance the stationary
front north again with some oomph in a 45 kt low level jet and
some warm advection once again to get temperatures into the 50s.
This will allow for ice to continue to weaken across the lake
and strong southwest winds around 25 to 30 kts will allow for
movement of the ice fields. Any ice floes will be hazardous to
folks on Lake Erie and may block or close established shipping
channels. People are urged to stay off the Lake Erie.

The low pressure system will weaken over the region on Saturday
and southwest flow will fall to around 10 to 15 kts. A strong
low pressure system will move up the East Coast on Sunday into
Monday and enhance the pressure gradient of the trough over the
region, allowing for 15 to 20 kts of northwest flow on Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for OHZ003-006>012-
     017>020-027>030-036-037.
PA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ142>149-
     162>169.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...26
MARINE...27