Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

513
FXUS61 KCLE 092347
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
647 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes from the previous package. Winds will quickly
diminish through this evening and overnight. Snow totals have
been increased slightly (2 to 4 inches) across the snowbelt
late Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds will quickly diminish this evening.

2) Widespread rain returns Saturday, followed by colder
temperatures and snow showers on Sunday.

3) Additional rain and/or snow showers are expected Tuesday
night into Wednesday, with precipitation transitioning to all
snow by Wednesday night into Thursday. Some lake effect snow may
follow on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will quickly build from the west this evening and
overnight as low pressure exits northeast into Quebec. Wind
gusts remain elevated this afternoon, with recent observations
ranging anywhere from 45 to 55 mph, the highest of which are
located closer to the lakeshore. Winds will quickly diminish
from west to east through this evening, becoming light and
variable overnight. Lows will remain relatively mild for this
time of the year with temperatures in the 30s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Low pressure will move northeast into the Great Lakes region on
Saturday and modestly deepen as flow becomes briefly cut-off in
the upper-levels. A mix of light and steady rain is expected
Saturday afternoon and evening, with the highest totals around a
quarter of an inch located generally along and east of the I-71
corridor.

As the low exits northeast into Quebec on Sunday, a trough will
swing south across the region, ushering in a colder air mass
and a brief burst of snow, particularly across Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania where some lake enhancement is
possible in the afternoon and evening. Snow totals will
generally range in the 2 to 4 inch range across the snowbelt.
Areas outside of the snowbelt may receive anywhere from a
dusting up to a quick inch. Snow is not expected to fully
transition over to lake effect as flow quickly shifts to the
southwest late Sunday night into Monday as a clipper slides just
to the north of the area.

Gusty winds are expected on Sunday with the trough passage with
gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range in the late morning and
afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

A large upper-level troughing regime appears favored to develop
across the Eastern CONUS on Wednesday, ushering in a return to
below average temperatures on Thursday and beyond. Initially, a
clipper system will bring rain mixed with snow across the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will extend a cold
front south through the region on Wednesday, with rain quickly
transitioning to snow behind the front. Although some lake
effect is possible behind the front on Thursday, the intensity
remains uncertain given shallow moisture above 850 mb.

Below average temperatures are anticipated on Thursday and
Friday with highs in the 20s and wind chills in the low teens to
single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Winds and gusts are quickly subsiding this evening as low
pressure rapidly exits to the northeast and a ridge of high
pressure quickly slides across the area. MVFR ceilings will
persist area-wide overnight. Some guidance continues to suggest
a brief period of IFR ceilings at sites such as MFD and CAK
early Saturday morning, but am sticking with MVFR in the TAFs
for now given an inconsistent signal and lack of IFR upstream.
Winds will generally shift from northwest this evening to
southeast overnight at <7 knots.

After a brief period where the MVFR ceilings may try scattering
out Saturday morning, widespread rain and lower ceilings
quickly spread northeast between 17-20z. Most sites will likely
experience a period of IFR ceilings and/or visibility during
the steadiest rain, with improvement towards and after 0z from
west to east. Winds will be south-southeast at 5-10kt through
most of Saturday afternoon, shifting more southwest late
Saturday with gusts increasing Saturday night.

Outlook...Non-VFR continues at times Saturday evening in
lingering rain showers and low ceilings. Non-VFR possible at
times area-wide in snow showers late Saturday night and Sunday,
persisting Sunday night across far NE OH and NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong westerly winds are expected across Lake Erie through this
evening before sharply decreasing to less than 10 knots after
sunset. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings remain in effect
for this.

Quiet weather ensues on Saturday followed by another batch of strong
westerly winds on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories are nearly a
guarantee at this point, though a short Gale Warning may be possible
in the eastern basin where winds may approach 35 knots at times late
Saturday night into Sunday. Northwest winds on Sunday gradually
dissipate to around 20 knots Sunday night, before becoming southwest
and remaining 15 to 25 knots through at least Wednesday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected today with record
high temperatures possible. Here are the record high
temperatures for area climate sites for January 9:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
01-09   59(1880)       61(1946)       66(1937)       63(1946)       66(1937)       64(1937)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ010>014-020-
     089.
PA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ145-
     146.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ147>149-
     167>169.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Saunders