Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

148
FXUS61 KCLE 281210
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
710 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
PoPs, QPF, and snow amounts have trended up slightly through
Thursday evening downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Impact should be limited with no more
than 1 to 2 inches of snow through the next couple days.
Additionally, a Cold Weather Advisory was issued for portions of
north central, northeast, and northwest Ohio from 7 PM this
evening to 11 AM Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Extended cold weather, including the potential for record
low temperatures, will continue through the weekend, allowing
for elevated risks for cold exposure and damage to
infrastructure.

2) Periodic light snow may impact parts of Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The main message for this week continues to be the prolonged
cold spell that we are in the middle of. Wind chills this
morning are still projected to get down to around -15 across
most of the forecast area, though lake clouds from Lake Michigan
has kept temperatures a bit warmer along and near the I-75
corridor in Northwest Ohio. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in
effect areawide through 11 AM this morning.

While wind speeds will be fairly similar tonight, temperatures
are expected to be a bit milder compared to this morning,
contributing to milder wind chills. Even so, a Cold Weather
Advisory was issued from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM Thursday for
portions of north central, northeast, and northwest Ohio from 7
PM this evening to 11 AM Thursday. This is a lower confidence
advisory compared to the last few cold weather headlines, mainly
due to a slightly warmer airmass and the potential for lake
effect clouds keeping temperatures a bit warmer than forecast.
Even so, was fairly generous with areal extent of this advisory
mainly due to the duration of cold weather, and the increased
levels of impacts that it can pose.

The coldest air temperatures of the forecast are expected
Thursday night into Friday morning and again Friday night into
Saturday morning when lows are in the -5 to -10 range. Forecast
minimum temperatures are near record lows for each of these
dates. Record lows would require clear skies and calm
conditions for favorable radiational cooling; however, there is
a lot of uncertainty in the cloud cover forecast, mainly because
low-level moisture and lake effect clouds are difficult to
forecast, especially given ice development on the lakes. Lower
wind speeds are forecast, though should still contribute to wind
chills at or below -15 each of these days for most of the area.

Temperatures remain cold and below normal through early next
week, though a warming trend to contribute to improving
conditions.

This extended period of cold temperatures will bring increased
risk of infrastructure impacts due to the cold, including burst
pipes, water main breaks, and dead batteries. The prolonged
nature of the cold will also pose a continued risk of exposure
to more vulnerable populations. These impacts will continue
through at least Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A broader upper-level trough remains over much of the eastern
CONUS with northwest flow of cold air aloft continuing through
the week. Subtle mid-level shortwave troughs will swing through
at various points, producing increased chances of light snow
showers at various points this week. Even though Lake Erie is
mostly ice-covered, cracks in the Lake Erie ice (along with
added low-level moisture from upstream Great Lakes) continues
to contribute to low-level moisture downwind of Lake Erie. The
best chance at some light snow will be Wednesday afternoon when
deeper moisture up to 700 mb will accompany one of the aforementioned
shortwave troughs, with a better shot at light snow
accumulations in the snowbelt of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. At this point, only an inch of additional snow
accumulation is expected, but wouldn`t be surprised to see some
highly localized amounts of 2 or 3 inches in the higher of Erie,
PA. Impacts to travel should be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Mainly VFR is found across the region this morning, with some
low clouds hanging around KCAK bringing a small area of
MVFR/IFR. Clouds will fill in across most of the region this
afternoon through tonight, bringing periods of MVFR. NW Ohio
may avoid the bulk of this, so kept KTOL and KFDY more
frequently VFR, but it will be quite frequent farther east. This
is in response to a mid/upper trough and associated cold front
crossing the region later this afternoon and evening. Lake Erie
is about 100% ice covered, but there is still enough latent heat
transport through the ice for some light lake enhanced snow
showers ahead of the front this afternoon followed by pockets of
light lake-effect snow showers in its wake tonight. This will
mainly occur in NE Ohio and NW PA, so have periods of VCSH and
SHSN at those sites this afternoon and tonight corresponding
with the longer periods of MVFR. The snow will be most frequent
at KERI, but the timing of the snow showers is the lowest
confidence there since these types of situations produce
frequent, difficult to time, snow showers across NW PA.

SW winds of 5-10 knots this morning will increase to 10-20 knots
this afternoon, with gusts up to 25 knots possible. This could
lead to minor visibility reductions from blowing snow. Winds
will veer more W and decrease to 5-15 knots this evening and
tonight.



Outlook...Additional periods of non-VFR with low clouds and
snow showers are expected through this weekend. Greatest
chances exist in NE OH and NW PA, where periodic lake-effect
snow downwind of mainly ice-covered Lake Erie should occur.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds on Lake Erie will quickly turn SW again this morning and
increase to 15-20 knots through the day as another cold front
approaches the lake. As the front passes across the lake tonight,
winds will veer to W and decrease to 10-15 knots, with W winds of 10-
15 knots continuing Thursday before turning NW at 5-10 knots
Thursday night through Friday night. Winds will veer to NNW and
increase to 10-15 knots Saturday, backing to W again by late Sunday
with 10-15 knot speeds continuing.

The deep arctic airmass entrenched across the Great Lakes region
will allow ice on Lake Erie to further expand and thicken through
the weekend. This will help to anchor the ice in place, effectively
reducing the movement of the ice despite the changes in wind speed
and direction.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low temperatures are possible on Friday and Saturday. Here
are the daily record low minimum temperatures for January 30 and 31:

Date    Toledo      Mansfield    Cleveland    Akron        Youngstown   Erie
01-30   -10(2019)   -10(2019)    -4(1873)     -6(1965)     -8(1965)     -4(2019)
01-31   -10(2019)    -7(2019)    -5(1971)     -5(1948)     -9(1948)     -6(1899)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Thursday for OHZ006-008-009-017>019-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas