Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

213
FXUS61 KCLE 172312
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
712 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A combination of lake effect snow and scattered instability snow
showers continue across most of the forecast area this afternoon.
Instability snow showers will weaken this evening as the sun sets,
with lake effect snow gradually shifting northeast up the lakeshore
and weakening tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake effect snow continues into tonight, but will gradually
wind down by Wednesday across the primary snowbelt region.
Instability snow showers ongoing outside of the snowbelt this
afternoon will also diminish quickly this evening.

2) Low-impact weather with light precipitation chances and milder
overall temperatures starting Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1...

Regarding the lake effect, activity has become much less organized
and more cellular this afternoon, though there are still two somewhat
more coherent bands. One band stretches from northern Cuyahoga County
into southern Lake/Geauga/southern Ashtabula/northern Trumbull, with
the other coming into northeastern Ashtabula County and extending
east across Erie County PA. Conditions will generally become less
conducive (i.e. increasing dry air, decreasing instability and
lowering inversion heights) for lake effect snow through tonight as
low-level ridging builds in. However, there may be some slight
increase in organization this evening as convergence increases along
the eastern lakeshore and accumulating snow may not stop in Erie
County PA until early Wednesday morning. The overall message is we
are past the peak of the lake effect event but there will be some
additional accumulation...perhaps locally an inch or two in far
Northeast OH this evening, and perhaps locally 1 to 3" in Northwest
PA through the night tonight. All Ohio winter headlines expire at 5
PM this evening, with the expectation that additional accumulations
and impacts will be minor. PA headlines remain in effect until 5 AM
Wednesday, with some thought that Crawford may be dropped earlier.

Scattered instability snow showers farther inland across northern
Ohio are being enhanced by one last subtle trough passage this
afternoon, and should quickly subside this evening once the trough
clears and as the sun goes down. Until this snow showers subside,
localized/brief visibility reductions to as low as 1/4 of a mile and
perhaps a quick coating of snow can pose a travel hazard.

Lows tonight will mainly settle into the 10s to near 20.

KEY MESSAGE #2...

Ridging will gradually build over the western and central U.S. over
the next several days as troughing persists over New England. Our
area will reside near the gradient between building warmth to our
west and southwest and lingering chill to our east/northeast. This
will lead to a milder trend overall, followed by what appears to be a
larger chunk of colder air arriving Sunday or Monday. There will be a
few mainly minor precipitation chances through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
The main concern for aviation will be in the very near term with
the scattered lake effect snow showers this evening. These snow
showers will gradually decrease between 00z and 04z this
evening. Conditions will be variable between VFR to localized
and brief IFR/LIFR with heavier burst of snow. After the snow
showers dissipate late this evening, mainly VFR conditions are
expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will start
out from the west 5 to 12 knots becoming southerly later in the
TAF period 10 to 15 knots. Gusts will return by midday Wednesday
through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR returns Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
with the next warm front.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions are slowly improving across Lake Erie this evening
as winds diminish to less than 15 knots overnight. The end times for
the remaining headlines remain valid. Winds will then shift to the
south on Wednesday, increasing to around 15 knots and persisting
into Thursday. Generally light and variable flow of 10 knots or less
will arrive on Friday into Saturday, followed by another round of
south to southwest flow of around 15 knots on Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ001-
     003.
     Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...77
MARINE...Kahn