Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

172
FXUS61 KCLE 221800
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
100 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in advisory level snow accumulations has increased
for much of the Winter Storm Watch area so have upgraded the
Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory and expanded the
headlines into Lorain, northern Ashtabula, and Crawford (PA)
counties. Confidence in warning level snowfall/impacts is still
too low to warrant an upgrade for Erie County, PA. There are
also concerns for potential advisory snowfall amounts a tier of
counties west of the Winter Weather Advisory in Ohio.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread light snow expected today, but accumulations will
be minimal and relatively low-impact. Heavier lake enhanced
snow tonight through Monday will bring more impactful snow
accumulations to the snowbelt region.

2) Multiple systems Tuesday night through Thursday will bring
periodic rain and snow showers to the area with warmer weather
returning by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mid Morning Update:
Quick update to increase POPS to categorical areawide much of
the day today as widespread light snow rotates across the area.
The rest of the forecast remains on track.

Original Discussion:

Widespread light snow showers are expected across the area
today as an upper level low moves east across the Great Lakes.
Generally expect snowfall totals of up to an inch, but there
will likely be a swath of 2 inches or more between I-75 and I-71
prior to 00Z/7 PM. Overall, impacts should be minor through
early this evening but will need to keep an eye on the area of
slightly higher snow accumulations for minor impacts.

The main trough axis associated with the upper low will shift
east of the area tonight, but continued upper troughing combined
with strong cold air advection and wraparound moisture
associated with a developing nor`easter off the Mid-Atlantic
coastline will result in the development of lake-enhanced snow
across northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania tonight
through Monday. Event total snowfall between tonight and Monday
night (48 hours) will largely range between 2 and 5 inches
across the snowbelt region of NE OH and NW PA, although locally
higher amounts as high as 7 to 10 inches are possible across
southern Erie County, PA. The long duration of snowfall should
mitigate impacts, but still expect minor to locally moderate
travel impacts. Most of the Winter Storm Watch has been
upgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory, but the Winter Storm
Watch remains in effect for Erie County, PA since there`s
greater potential for warning amounts/impacts. It`s important to
note that the highest snowfall totals will occur where the
heaviest snow bands persist, which will likely be related to
moisture connections to the upstream Great Lakes. The Winter
Weather Advisory also includes Lorain County, northern Ashtabula
County, and southern Crawford County (PA). The heaviest snowfall
rates and greatest impacts will likely occur late tonight
through early Monday afternoon and the Monday morning commute
may be impacted.

There`s some potential for snowfall to over-perform to the west
of the advisory including Erie (OH), Huron, Richland, and
Ashland counties. This area may experience more upstream lake
enhancement than anticipated and snowfall totals may approach
advisory amounts. Will also need to keep an eye on potential for
over-performance in locations downstream from the areas of
lower ice coverage on Lake Erie including Lorain, Medina,
Cuyahoga, and Geauga counties. Guidance typically underestimates
QPF when the lake is mostly ice covered but has appreciable
areas of lower ice coverage.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Lake enhanced snow will diminish late Monday night into Tuesday.
A series of systems will clip the local area Tuesday evening
through Thursday, resulting in periodic rain/snow showers for
the middle of the week. There will likely be another round of
accumulating lake-enhanced snowfall as the first clipper moves
across the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday with minor
impacts possible across portions of NE OH/NW PA. There`s quite a
bit of uncertainty in the track of the second system and
resulting precip type Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS and
ECMWF favor a more northern storm track which would support
more snowfall and possibly a wintry, whereas deterministic
Canadian guidance suggests a drier forecast for the area. Will
need to monitor this system and adjust the forecast/communicate
possible impacts as confidence increases. Dry and warmer weather
will return on Friday with above normal temperatures expected
late week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Mixed-bag of MVFR and IFR conditions across the TAF sites this
afternoon, associated with both lower ceilings and vsbys in
snow. More widespread IFR vsbys will become more likely later
this evening into Monday morning as an area of lake enhanced
snow spreads southeast across the region, mainly impacting sites
along and east of the I-71 corridor.

Winds are generally favoring a west to northwest direction this
afternoon, around 10 knots. Winds will shift towards the
northwest behind a trough Monday morning and increase into the
12 to 17 knot range with gusts of 25 to 28 knots possible.

Outlook...Periodic snow with non-VFR expected through Tuesday
night. Non-VFR likely on Wednesday in snow changing to rain/snow
with a clipper system. Non-VFR may return again on Thursday as
another system moves through the region.

&&

.MARINE...
A trough remains over the eastern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a
strong low pressure system will move up the East Coast tonight
into Monday, strengthening the trough over the region. Winds on
the lake will be westerly to start today before becoming
northwest and increasing eventually to 20 to 25 kts by Monday.
This stronger northwest flow will compress ice along the Lake
Erie shoreline over the next couple of days.

A high pressure ridge building into the region Monday night into
Tuesday will allow for winds to decrease to around 10 kts and
back to the southwest. A low pressure system will move through
the Great Lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday and
southwest winds will increase over the lake. Another low
pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley on Thursday
and bring elevated northeast winds.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Tuesday for OHZ010>014-020-021-089.
PA...Winter Storm Watch from 10 PM EST this evening through Tuesday
     morning for PAZ001-002.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for PAZ003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas/15
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Sefcovic