Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

446
FXUS61 KCLE 272349
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
649 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
5:08 PM EST Jan 27th, 2026:
Increased POP`s to 100% through about 8 PM this evening for
locations roughly along and east of I-71 to account for the
expected persistence and progression of the linear snow squall
along the SE`ward-moving cold front. The front and snow squall
were located along a roughly Mentor to Mount Gilead, OH line at
5:08 PM. The front and linear snow squall are expected to exit
the rest of our CWA by 8 PM this evening. Low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the front will continue to
release potential instability in the lowest 1 km AGL. The
forcing for ascent and release of instability will continue to
result in strong, maximized ascent within a cloudy DGZ about 1
km deep and therefore heavy snow production. Thus, the linear
snow squall is expected to produce up to about one inch of quick
snow accumulation, be accompanied by near-zero visibility, and
generate surface wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph as the snow
squall coincides with 0-1 km AGL mean wind speeds near 30 knots.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light snow is expected areawide this afternoon and evening with
some blowing snow favored west of I-71 and along the lakeshore.
Additional light snow accumulations and blowing snow may result in
travel impacts through tonight.

2) Extended cold weather, including the potential for record
low temperatures, will continue through the weekend, allowing
for elevated risks for cold exposure and damage to infrastructure.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front will move through the local area this afternoon and
evening, supporting another round of areawide snow showers with
some accumulations of a couple tenths to one inch of snow for
most. There may be some brief periods of reduced visibility with
some more organized snow showers with gusty winds entering with
the front. However, suspect that visibility will be greater
than one-quarter of a mile and this front will not produce an
organized snow squall with immediate road impacts. There will be
Special Weather Statements issued with this band of snow moving
through the region.

Behind the front, there will be the opportunity for some lake
enhanced snow showers to linger through the evening with -20 C
850 mb temperatures overhead. The usual locations in far NE OH
and NW PA will see some residual snow with upstream connections
to Lake Huron. However, there is a large gap in the ice on Lake
Erie offshore of Erie and Lorain Counties and there could be
some additional snow for areas west of Cleveland in North
Central Ohio. Therefore, have these areas as a target for
possibly 1-2" of snow through tonight.

After this system, the pattern will shift to a dry synoptic
pattern with high pressure in place and additional snow chances
through early next week will be limited. The colder spells
mentioned below will increase Lake Erie ice coverage and should
further limit any snow courtesy of lake effect.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
With the reinforcing, Arctic cold front moving through this
afternoon and evening, temperatures will remain frigid through
the weekend. High temperatures through Sunday will stay below
20 degrees with single digit high temperatures likely on Friday
and Saturday for many locations. Low temperatures will be
especially cold with single digit to below zero temperatures
through at least Monday night. Friday night into Saturday may be
the coldest with many locations in the double digits below zero
if winds can calm and clouds can stay out of the region with
high pressure.

For tonight, the Cold Weather Advisory will continue as
advertised through 11 AM on Wednesday with wind chill values in
the -15 to -22F range. For Wednesday night and Thursday night,
low temperatures will be colder and below zero for most folks.
However, with high pressure building overhead, winds will
diminish significantly and there may not be a true wind chill
for many locations. However, any wind would introduce the need
for more Cold Weather Advisories. As said before, Friday night
into Saturday will be the coldest night and temperatures alone
may merit the need for Cold Weather Advisories. However, if some
wind can develop, there would be the need for at least
advisories, if not some warnings in Northwest and North Central
Ohio. There will be some level of moderation in temperature on
Sunday and Monday nights and wind chills below zero are likely
but probably stay above advisory-level.

This extended period of cold temperatures will bring increased
risk of infrastructure impacts due to the cold, including burst
pipes, water main breaks, and dead batteries. The prolonged
nature of the cold will also pose a continued risk of exposure
to more vulnerable populations. These impacts will continue
through at least Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
At the surface, a SE`ward-moving cold front was located along a
roughly KERI to KYNG to KPHD line at 23:30Z/Tues. This front
should exit the rest of our region by 01Z/Wed. Behind the front,
a ridge builds from the northern and central Great Plains
through 00Z/Thurs. The cold front passage will cause SW`erly
winds around 10 to 15 knots, gusting up to about 20 to 25 knots,
to veer to WNW`erly. Then, beginning around 04Z/Wed and
continuing through the end of the TAF period, our regional
surface winds will back to SW`erly and be around 5 to 15 knots
in magnitude. Gusts will cease for a time. However, the SW`erly
winds are expected to gust up to 20 knots or so Wed afternoon
through 00Z/Thurs.

Scattered to widespread low-level clouds with bases primarily
near 2kft to 3.5kft AGL are expected through the TAF period. The
cold front passage in our region will be accompanied by a band
of steady to heavy snow showers with brief IFR to LIFR and
brief gusts up to 25 to 35 knots. Behind the front, scattered
and periodic Lake Erie lake-effect snow (LES) showers are
expected to impact NE OH and NW PA through 00Z/Thurs as mean
low-level flow varies between NW`erly and SW`erly. Primarily
MVFR are forecast with these LES showers, but brief IFR to LIFR
are expected before 04Z/Wed and are possible after roughly
20Z/Wed.

Also behind the front, scattered/periodic Lake Michigan LES
showers should impact KTOL/KFDY/KMFD until roughly 04Z/Wed.
Brief MVFR are expected with these LES showers. Otherwise, dry
weather and VFR visibility are expected behind the cold front.

Outlook...Additional periods of non-VFR with clouds and
snow showers are expected through this weekend. Greatest
chances exist in NE OH and NW PA, where periodic lake-effect
snow downwind of mainly ice-covered Lake Erie should occur.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds to 30 knots on Lake Erie will veer to westerly
behind a cold front through this evening and decrease overnight.
Winds will tend to remain below 20 knots as they vary from
southwesterly to northwesterly through Thursday. High pressure
builds into the region to end the week with winds generally 15 knots
or less through Sunday.

Lake Erie is approximately 95% ice covered and continued ice growth
is expected through the weekend with arctic air over the region.
Some shifting of the ice is possible but will thicken as the
cold air persists.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low temperatures are possible later this week. Here are the
daily record low minimum temperatures for January 29 through 31:

Date    Toledo      Mansfield    Cleveland    Akron        Youngstown   Erie
01-29   -9(1963)    -14(1977)    -17(1873)    -13(1977)    -12(1977)    -10(1977)
01-30   -10(2019)   -10(2019)    -4(1873)     -6(1965)     -8(1965)     -4(2019)
01-31   -10(2019)    -7(2019)    -5(1971)     -5(1948)     -9(1948)     -6(1899)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka/Sefcovic
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...10/Garuckas