Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

796
FXUS61 KCLE 091142
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
742 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A front will bring occasional showers and thunderstorms to the
region this afternoon. More widespread showers expected Friday
as the front sweeps through the region.

2) Above normal temperatures Sunday through midweek with
continued shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front will approach the region today as low pressure tracks
northeast across Quebec. Some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of the cold front,
mainly north of US-30. Some thunderstorms may be capable of
producing gusty winds as MUCAPE values are forecast to reach
500-750 J/kg coupled with 25-30 knots of bulk shear. However,
not anticipating thunderstorms to reach severe limits. SPC has
maintained general thunder across the forecast area for today.

The front and its accompanying showers and thunderstorms will
briefly lift north and stall over Lake Erie tonight. Another
shortwave aloft will enter the region for Friday which will push the
stalled front south through the day Friday. Expect coverage of
showers and thunderstorms to increase on Friday. Not
anticipating any strong to severe thunderstorms to develop as
instability will be minimal. Overall QPF for Friday will be less
than 0.50 inches which will curb any threat of flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure builds overhead on Saturday behind the frontal passage
discussed above. Slightly cooler on Saturday behind the front before
a warming trend begins Sunday through midweek. Afternoon highs will
rise into the 70s Sunday through Wednesday. In addition to the above
average temperatures, this pattern change will usher in numerous
chances for showers and thunderstorms and multiple shortwaves aloft
eject out of the Plains into the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR is anticipated through at least mid to late afternoon
today. By that point, a cold front will bring scattered showers
and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms into northern Ohio and
northwestern Pennsylvania, which will be capable of producing
non-VFR conditions. There`s some uncertainty in the timing of
the best opportunity of showers; a few high res guidance members
suggest that storms will develop earlier this afternoon, whereas
others depict showers/storms primarily developing this evening.
The forecast is more optimistic for KFDY/KMFD/KCAK and have
opted for a PROB30 or dry forecast for these terminals since
latest guidance favors the vast majority of precipitation
remaining to the north of these terminals. Can`t rule out some
gusty winds to 30+ knots in any stronger storms that develop.
Showers will likely lift north towards the end of the TAF
period. VFR is expected outside of precipitation.

Winds will be out of the south/southwest at 10 to 15 knots with
locally higher winds likely at KFDY/KCLE/KERI through mid to
late morning. A LLJ will produce LLWS for the first hour or two
of the TAF period before increasing mixing and gusts to 20 to 30
knots decrease the LLWS potential by 15Z. Winds will diminish
this afternoon with sustained wind speeds of 10 knots or less
expected by no later than 00Z Friday. Another round of LLWS is
likely across most of the area as winds aloft increase early
Friday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic rain showers and
thunderstorms through Friday evening and again Sunday night
through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore winds to 15 to 20 knots are expected this morning with
the highest winds expected in the open waters and eastern basin.
There may be a brief period this morning where winds in the
nearshore zone from Conneaut, OH to Ripley, NY approach or
marginally exceed 20 knots, however at this point the duration
of Small Craft Advisory conditions is too low to warrant a
headline at this point. Will continue to monitor wind
speeds/waves and may need to consider issuing a brief advisory
for this morning if winds trend higher than currently
anticipated. Winds will diminish to 12 knots or less and become
west/southwest by early this evening with wind direction
becoming more variable as a frontal boundary wavers over or in
the vicinity of the lake late tonight through Friday morning.
Winds will become northwesterly but remain below 15 knots as the
cold front finally moves southeast away from Lake Erie Friday
afternoon. Winds will be relatively light and variable over the
weekend, although marginal Small Craft Advisories may be needed
late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15