Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

633
FXUS61 KCLE 231916
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
316 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor adjustments based on latest guidance, though overall we`re
still looking at late Friday into early Saturday followed by
later Monday into Tuesday for the main upcoming rain chances.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and some thunderstorms are likely later Friday into
early Saturday. The overall concern for severe weather and heavy
rain is low, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated
damaging winds in place across Northwest OH for late Friday.

2) After quiet weather to end the weekend, the next low pressure
brings shower and storm potential late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A front remains draped across the area this afternoon, extending from
near the western lakeshore to just south of Cleveland to just north
of Youngstown. It has mainly been another dry, warm, mostly sunny day
though we are beginning to see a few showers/storms developing in the
vicinity of the Central Highlands. This mainly isolated activity
remains possible through the early evening along and southwest of the
front. Not expecting any severe weather this evening, though enough
for a slight chance mention in the forecast for parts of the area.
After any pop-up showers/storms dissipate, it will turn into a dry
night tonight with lows mainly settling into the mid to upper 50s,
except upper 40s/lower 50s across far Northeast OH and Northwest PA.
Some limited fog isn`t ruled out in typical valley locations very
late tonight into early Friday, though should be quite sparse.

A gradually weakening shortwave, associated surface low, and trailing
cold front will move east across the southern Great Lakes/Upper Ohio
Valley late Friday into early Saturday, bringing more widespread
shower and storm activity. Shortwave ridging will be overhead to
start on Friday before getting flattened and exiting east into
Friday night. The front (likely enhanced by a lake breeze during the
afternoon) will lift north of most of the area, but will likely get
hung up across the northeast corner of OH and Erie County PA. So
while most of the area will enjoy a mainly dry, warm Friday in the
warm sector, Erie will likely stay in the 60s. A few showers/storms
may also develop near that front across the northeast corner of the
area Friday afternoon. Elsewhere, most of the day Friday should
remain rain-free with highs ranging from the mid 70s to near 80.

Greater forcing pushes in from the west into Friday night as the
shortwave and cold front move in from the west and flattens any
remaining ridging aloft. This will bring more organized shower and
storm potential in from the west. There`s good agreement in an
organized band of showers/storms moving into Northwest OH late Friday
afternoon or evening from the west. Activity will likely gradually
weaken as it moves across the area Friday night, due to the shortwave
itself slowly weakening and nocturnal stabilization. Still, everyone
should see some rain Friday night with the greatest confidence in
thunder and higher overall QPF amounts across Northwest OH. Drier
weather gradually spreads in from west to east late Friday night into
Saturday. The shortwave and surface low will slow while departing,
so far Northeast OH and Northwest PA may end up rather cloudy/
somewhat damp for most of Saturday. Locations farther west should
see drier and gradually sunnier weather work in sooner on Saturday.
Lows Friday night will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. It will
trend cooler behind the cold front for Saturday, with highs expected
to range from the 50s near the lake across Northeast OH and Northwest
PA to the mid-upper 60s well inland.

The potential for severe weather and heavy rain with this system
remain limited. Average QPF amounts of generally 0.30-0.60" are in
the forecast, with locally an inch not ruled out if localized
training or repeating showers/storms occur. In terms of severe
potential, low-level inverted-v soundings Friday afternoon/early
evening and modest flow aloft could support gusty outflow winds with
any more-organized storms pushing into Northwest OH. However, the
overall thermodynamics and kinematics are very marginal (at best) for
severe weather, so am not expecting an organized threat. The SPC
Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for damaging winds across western portions
of our area should sufficiently cover the severe weather threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Some clouds and lingering light showers may persist across Northwest
PA into Saturday night...otherwise, dry weather is expected Saturday
night through Monday morning as high pressure slides across the Great
Lakes/Northeast and southeastern Canada. It will remain cooler for
the second half of the weekend, with lows in the 40s and highs in the
60s. Fairly potent (990-995mb) low pressure will lift into the Upper
Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. A warm front will lift through
late Monday or Monday night ahead of this low, followed quickly by
an occluding cold front in the vicinity of Tuesday morning. Much of
Monday looks dry, before shower and storm chances move in from the
west late Monday or Monday night. Rain chances likely linger into
Tuesday before exiting east. As implied by the strength of the low
this system will have some better dynamics with it, to the point
where it likely will produce organized severe weather to our west on
Monday. Impression at this time is that the timing of the front
earlier on Tuesday should limit severe weather and heavy rain
potential locally, though will still need to keep an eye on that
overall evolution as we get closer.

It is rather uncertain how dry we end up for Wednesday and Thursday,
as the front may stall across the Upper Ohio Valley behind the early
week system. If the front does stall closer to the local area, some
rain may return later in the week as indicated by some 30% mentions
in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. As that 30% also
implies, there`s a very realistic scenario in which the front sweeps
far enough south to simply dry out. Either way, we should trend a
bit cooler for Wednesday and Thursday with overall low impact wx.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR will prevail through the TAF cycle as high pressure
gradually weakens and departs to the east. This will lead to
slowly increasing cirrus tonight and Friday morning.

A lake breeze will continue to impact KCLE and KERI this
afternoon and evening with NE winds of 5-10 knots before turning
light southerly tonight. The lake breeze will quickly redevelop
at KERI by mid Friday morning and could impact KCLE again by
afternoon. Otherwise, SW winds will average 5-10 knots through
the TAF period.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR
possible Friday afternoon through Saturday morning and on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves are still expected to stay below marine headline
criteria through early next week due to relatively weak pressure
gradients. Light E to SE winds tonight will quickly turn ENE at
10-20 knots Friday as a warm front stalls over the lake. These
will be the strongest winds of the next 5 days. The winds will
gradually turn N at 5-10 knots Friday night as a weak low
crosses the lake, with N to NE winds averaging 5-15 knots
persisting Saturday and Sunday as high pressure builds into the
Great Lakes. E to SE winds will gradually increase Monday as a
warm front approaches the lake, turning W to SW by Tuesday as a
cold front crosses the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas