Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

071
FXUS61 KCLE 071847
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
247 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures have trended a little colder this
afternoon/evening, and Friday has trended a little cooler and
wetter. Otherwise, no changes to the forecast or messaging.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably cold tonight with mid-winter like arctic air.

2) Temperatures warm to near seasonable levels Wednesday
through Saturday, followed by well above normal temperatures
Sunday through early next week. Periodic showers and
thunderstorms are expected between Thursday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An amplified pattern continues this afternoon characterized by
deep mid/upper troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast
CONUS downstream of broad mid/upper ridging over the western
U.S. and Plains. This is maintaining a northwesterly feed of
arctic air through the region, but strong surface high pressure
building in from the central Great Lakes has allowed skies to
clear out, so the strong April sun at least makes it feel
slightly better. Lowered highs a couple of degrees this
afternoon based on current observations. Lingering lake-effect
clouds in far NE Ohio and NW PA will clear out by early evening
as the high builds overhead, and this will set up strong
radiational cooling tonight. Expect lows to bottom out in the
low/mid 20s areawide, with teens in favored portions of interior
NE Ohio and NW PA and perhaps along the U.S. 30 corridor.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Quiet weather and welcomed warming will begin Wednesday as the
mid/upper trough lifts out and allows for height rises across
the region as the surface high shifts into New England and also sets
up return flow. The warming trend will continue Wednesday night
and Thursday as a warm front lifts across the region ahead of a
mid/upper shortwave and associated surface low progressing into
the northern Great Lakes. The low-level moisture return in the
warm sector ahead of this system does not look too impressive,
partly due to the strongest upper support passing north of the
region leading to a weaker low-level jet response. However, some
pooling and low-level convergence ahead of the trailing cold
front will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms late
Thursday and Thursday night as the front gradually sags into the
region from NW to SE, so POPS have trended a little faster on
Thursday. Any convection Thursday afternoon and Thursday night
should be mostly low-impact.

The period to watch for somewhat more impactful weather will be
Friday and Friday night as the front becomes quasi-stationary
across the region in response to a mid/upper jet max forming a
surface wave on the front. Details are still uncertain, but as
the wave tracks along the boundary during the day Friday,
slightly higher wind fields and associated shear, along with
better low-level moisture advection, could generate a few
stronger thunderstorms as well as locally heavy rain. Given how
saturated the soils are in many areas, this could cause
localized impacts, so trends will be monitored.

The front will be pushed into the Ohio Valley Saturday as
Canadian high pressure at the surface builds across the Great
Lakes, setting up dry and cooler conditions. This front will
quickly return north as a warm front Sunday as a broad area of
deep southerly flow develops through early next week along with
corresponding mid/upper ridging building into the eastern CONUS.
This is in response to a strong mid/upper trough and closed low
slowly progressing from the Pacific Northwest Sunday into the
Plains by Tuesday. In this pattern, confidence is highest that
temperatures will warm to well above normal levels Sunday
through Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances are less
certain. A series of shortwaves will eject out of the main
upstream upper trough/low and traverse an active baroclinic
zone/quasi-stationary front across the Great Lakes. This will
bring periodic clusters of convection, but the placement of the
boundary may keep the bulk of it north of our area until the
front starts to sag into the region Tuesday. At this point,
expect periodic showers and thunderstorms (mostly scattered)
between Sunday and Monday, with a more organized round possible
Tuesday. The timeframe around Tuesday will be the next period to
watch for potential severe weather and heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
The main message for aviation weather with this midday 18z TAF
update will be VFR conditions are expected this afternoon
through tonight and Wednesday. The are some lingering scattered
to broken lake effect ceilings over far NEOH and NWPA around
the YNG and ERI site around 3500 feet this afternoon. These
clouds will gradually scattered out later this afternoon and
early evening. Elsewhere, skies are mostly clear this
afternoon and these fair weather conditions will stay through
the end of this TAF period or early afternoon Wednesday. High
pressure is building in this afternoon. Winds will start out
from the north or northeast 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Winds
will decrease down to around 5 knots tonight and become easterly
overnight. Winds will shift back around from the southeast by
Wednesday morning around 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered rain showers on Thursday
night through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on Lake Erie will continue to calm down as high
pressure builds into the region this afternoon and evening.
Winds this afternoon will be from the north or northeast 5 to
12 knots. Waves are still gradually decreasing and will be
around 2 to 4 feet this afternoon as the lake continues to
settle down. Winds will shift around from the east tonight and
southeast on Wednesday increasing to 8 to 15 knots. The next
cold front will approach Lake Erie late Thursday. Southerly
winds will increase Wednesday night 15 to 20 knots. Winds will
become southwesterly on Thursday between 15 and 20 knots. Even
though the wind will be mainly an offshore flow late Wednesday
night into Thursday, we may need additional Small Craft
Advisories if the trends for wind speeds increase closer to 25
knots. That cold front may weaken as it moves across Lake Erie
Thursday night with decreasing and variable winds overnight.
Winds will remain southwesterly on Friday 10 to 15 knots before
another front moves across Lake Erie with a shift from the north
5 to 10 knots by Friday night. High pressure will be near the
lake this weekend with a light northeasterly to easterly flow
expected on Saturday. A return flow of southerly winds will be
back by Sunday, increasing late in the day 8 to 15 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77