Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

982
FXUS61 KCLE 230010
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
710 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Storm Watch has now been expanded to all counties. Cold
Weather Advisory has been issued for all zones Friday morning
through Saturday morning. For the winter storm this weekend,
snow amounts have come up a bit area-wide and timing remains
the same.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potent winter snow storm will affect the area Saturday night
through approximately early Monday. Significant snow accumulations
should be expected. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for all
counties.

2) Sub-zero wind chills Friday morning and actual air temperatures
below zero Friday night into Saturday morning have prompted a Cold
Weather Advisory for this period.

3) Continued cold through next week with temperatures not climbing
above freezing at all in the 7 day forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Operational models now coming into better agreement as the trend
northward with this system into northern Ohio and northwestern
Pennsylvania appears more and more likely. As the system organizes
over the southern plains region, surface low pressure will develop
along the south Texas coast. This area of low pressure will track
northeastward Saturday into Saturday night and into the middle/upper
Ohio River Valley. On Sunday, a southern stream and northern stream
500mb trough axis will phase over the midwest, and a 700mb
trough axis just east of that moves into the lower Ohio Valley.
This should keep the surface low going through at least Sunday
before it gets kicked eastward with the progression of the
mid/upper level systems. Given the location and tracks of these
various components, the axis of heavier snowfall will include
much of our CWA, and the southern/southeastern/eastern zones
will get the highest amounts. Our northwest Ohio counties should
receive the least amount of snow, but that should still be a
5-7 inch range or so as of this forecast issuance. Still have a
lot of details to unfold however, as this system is still two
and a half days out. A quicker dissolving or exit to the
aforementioned surface low would lessen snowfall amounts,
especially in the northwestern zones. A stronger band of low
level f-gen could lead to a refinement in the placement and
areal coverage of the heaviest snowfall for our area. Also not
being resolved well right now, and if it will even end up as a
feature to explore in the forecast, is a possible TROWAL which
could extent snowfall on the back end of the event. Also
something to watch is the NAM and an amplified dry slot moving
in from the southwest late Sunday into early Sunday night which
could cut off the later end of the snowfall. These are all
things to watch for as the system approaches.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the more immediate term, another cold front will come through
tonight. Some light snow is possible with it, and the northeastern
zones could end up with a quick inch or so, but the main story with
it will be the plummeting temperatures and the increase in the winds
in the wake of the cold front. Although it will be difficult to
actually get to the -15 criteria for the Cold Weather Advisory, one
has been issued for our entire area of responsibility from Friday
morning through Saturday morning. Winds and temperatures bring sub
zero wind chills Friday morning, while temperatures below zero but
lighter winds warrant the advisory Friday night through Saturday
morning.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

After the exit of the major winter storm Monday, temperatures will
remain well below freezing through the end of the week as another
cold front comes through Wednesday before any warm ups can occur.
Cold Canadian high pressure from the Canadian prairies spills into
the Great Lakes with another round of well-below normal temperatures
for the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A cold front moving through the region will allow for some snow
showers to meander through NE OH and NW PA tonight into Friday.
Overall, the areas ahead of the front is dry with scattered low
VFR clouds over the region but any MVFR is limited to the snow
shower areas to the northeast. With the frontal passage, there
will be an uptick in snow and have IFR into KERI with some snow
showers into KCLE and KYNG. Behind the front, MVFR ceilings will
take hold into the region with elevated west winds with gusts of
20 to 30 kts.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected late Saturday through early Monday
in widespread snow. Possible non-VFR in NE OH and NW PA with
residual lake effect snow showers early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie is still mostly ice covered as seen by satellite passes
this morning and throughout the day. Winds across the lake have
been between 20-30 knots out of the west to southwest which has
caused the ice to move eastward across the lake. There is some
fastened ice just west of the islands in the open waters and that
will continue in the near future. Winds will diminish through this
afternoon into the evening down to 15-25 knots across much of the
lake with higher winds near 30 knots possible in the far eastern
basin of the lake. There is potential for winds to reach near gales
in the eastern basin tonight after midnight though it will be brief
and continue to diminish down to 10-20 knots by Friday evening. With
the elevated winds, water levels near Toledo will be close to
reaching the critical mark for safe navigation this evening, though
should stay above as winds will diminish. Waves in the ice free
zones will be around 6-8 feet through Friday evening before
diminishing to less than 2 feet by Saturday afternoon.

A strong low pressure system will cross south of the Great Lakes
region this weekend and arctic high pressure will build in behind.
Winds will become lighter across the lake at less than 15 knots
through Monday morning as another low traverses the region and winds
increase to near 25 knots. There should be decent ice growth across
Lake Erie this weekend as arctic air will remain in place over the
region for at least the next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday
     morning for OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-047.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday
     afternoon for OHZ010>014-020>023-030>033-038-089.
PA...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for PAZ001>003.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday
     afternoon for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...23