Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

356
FXUS61 KCLE 060750
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
350 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Showers and storms expected today ahead of a cold front that will
track through the region tonight with potentially severe level
storms.

2.) Heat will build through the week as another upper level ridge
builds into the Great Lakes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers moving through Michigan and southern Ontario due to a
prefrontal surface trough and the emergence of a low level jet will
likely begin to dip southward into our CWA over the next several
hours. These will be largely low QPF producers and scattered in
nature, and not every location will receive rain this morning. As we
get into the daytime hours, flow aloft becomes cyclonic, and with
daytime heating, expecting not only a significant increase in the
instability, but a lowering of the CAPE as well. Column RH could lag
a bit, but do not expect that to be an inhibiting factor to
convection today. Models now showing an increase in the 0-6km bulk
shear compared to last night with 50kts, and could now see this
development becoming a line or cluster of storms moving mainly
northwest to southeast through the CWA. Expecting mainly damaging
winds as a the threat, and this potentially severe convection should
initiate after 18Z when insolation has had time to destabilize after
morning cloud cover exits.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure in the wake of the cold front Sunday and Monday in
slightly cooler weather and convective chances returning Tuesday
thanks to a relatively high amplitude upper level trough axis moving
through. Another more persistent upper level ridge will move in for
the rest of the forecast period, through the end of the week, and
will mark a period where very warm temperatures should build in
along with higher dewpoints that eclipse 70F for much of the CWA
Thursday and Friday. Will need to watch the apparent temperatures
for the end of next week with those higher dewpoints and
temperatures in place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Several rounds of showers will move across the region through
tonight. The first round will continue to move across Lake Erie
over the next few hours, likely just clipping Northwest Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania through the overnight hours. Can`t rule
out any isolated embedded thunderstorm with this initial push of
showers, but only have a TS mention through 12Z/Sat for KTOL.
Another area of showers and thunderstorms will move across
Indiana into western Ohio later this morning which may clip
terminals along the I-75 corridor before the region sees a brief
break in precipitation late this morning into early this
afternoon. Hi-res models are continuing to hint at a line of
thunderstorms developing south of Lake Erie and pushing south
across terminals late this afternoon/early evening (~20Z/Sat to
00Z/Sun). Maintained PROB30 for this timeframe with the 06Z TAF
issuance, but will likely begin to add TEMPO groups as
confidence increases ahead of the 12Z forecast cycle.

Any showers and/or thunderstorms that develop and move over a
terminal will be capable of producing MVFR ceilings and/or
visibilities. Any afternoon/evening thunderstorm that develops
may reach severe limits and cause strong wind gusts and large
hail.

Southwest winds have decreased slightly early this morning to
8-12 knots but they are expected to increase later this morning
to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. Locally higher wind gusts
possible in strong to severe thunderstorms. Winds will turn
westerly while decreasing to 8 knots or less tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in patchy fog early Sunday morning.
Periods of non-VFR likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds increase to 15-20 knots ahead of the passage of
a cold front this evening. Wave heights are expected to build
to 3-6 feet across the open waters and in the nearshore zones
of the eastern basin. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory and
Beach Hazards Statement though this evening. As the cold front
moves south across the region showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and evening. High pressure builds
overhead behind the cold front allowing for northerly winds to
decrease to 10 knots or less on Sunday. Easterly flow increases
to 10-15 knots on Monday before southerly flow returns on
Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13