Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

448
FXUS61 KCLE 231156
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
756 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with the morning update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry with pleasant, below normal temperatures through
Wednesday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday night and
Thursday, with a few strong storms possible Thursday afternoon
and evening containing gusty winds and heavy downpours.

3) Intermittent potential for rain Friday into early next week,
with a gradual warming trend beginning on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A large area of surface high pressure (Canadian high) will build
down across the Great Lakes today and become centered over the
Ohio Valley region by Wednesday. This will support mostly sunny
skies with just pockets of cirrus at times and fair weather
afternoon cumulus. The sunshine will allow for moderating
temperatures compared to yesterday, but still a solid 5 degrees
below normal for late June with highs in the low to mid 70s
today and mid to upper 70s Wednesday. The high overhead will
set up another chilly night tonight with lows in the low 50s,
and small temp/dew point depressions may lead to quite a bit of
fog, especially over interior portions of NE Ohio and NW PA. This
will be monitored.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Wednesday night and Thursday will be the beginning of a more
active pattern that will continue on into early next week. Broad
mid/upper troughing that has been entrenched across the northern
tier of the CONUS will continue to hold as a low amplitude
shortwave trough progresses through the mean longwave trough.
As this shortwave crosses the Great Lakes Thursday, a weak
associated surface low will track eastward across the southern
Great Lakes. This will lift a warm front across the region
Wednesday night followed quickly by a cold front Thursday
afternoon and evening as the low departs into the eastern Great
Lakes. An initial round of showers and a few embedded rumbles of
thunder should occur Wednesday night and early Thursday morning
driven by weak warm air advection and isentropic ascent ahead of
the warm front. Not confident that these showers will be
widespread or amount to much, but a modest 65 knot upper jet
will be enough for a 20 knot low-level jet response, and this
will advect a little elevated instability into the area from the
southwest. This could help some areas to see better rainfall
coverage and amounts despite the unimpressive forcing.

Thursday afternoon and evening could be more interesting as the
cold front crosses the region. There is still some disagreement
in model guidance on the timing of the frontal passage, but if
morning clouds and showers clear out in time and if the front
holds off until late afternoon/evening, then there should be
modest heating and resultant instability in the warm sector to
trigger a broken line of convection. A rather impressive 90-95
knot H3 jet streak crossing the southern Great Lakes in the
afternoon will generate plenty of lift and deep layer effective
shear for organized updrafts if enough instability can be
realized. Based on current consensus of frontal passage timing,
the best chance for a few strong to severe storms will be along
and east of I-71 Thursday afternoon into the evening. Any storms
could produce gusty winds and brief heavy rain. The SWODY3 only
shows general thunder at this point (no severe risk), but this
will be monitored. Temperatures will warm to near 80 Thursday,
and it will feel noticeably more humid as dew points creep into
the 60s, especially after the cool weather of the past 10 days.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
After the cold front progresses through the area Thursday, the
boundary is likely to become quasi-stationary near the Ohio
Valley region through the weekend before starting to lift back
north early next week. The mid/upper pattern will feature the
stubborn longwave trough that has dominated the northern tier of
the CONUS lately slowly retreating into New England this weekend
and early next week as a broad ridge amplifies over the central
CONUS in response to a longwave trough amplifying west of the
Rockies. Northern Ohio, NW PA, and the southern Great Lakes
region will be wedged between the cooler influence of the
lingering trough to the east and the heat dome building just to
the west. This combined with a cool Canadian surface high over
the eastern Great Lakes this weekend through early next week
will keep the frontal boundary NW to SE oriented across the Ohio
Valley. Multiple weak shortwaves progressing through the NW flow
and interacting with the boundary will bring periodic chances
for showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend,
especially along and south of U.S. 30 in closer proximity to the
boundary. At this point, the drier air from the Canadian high to
the NE will probably win out for most of the area, so do not
expect any heavy rain Friday through the weekend (most areas
will stay dry outside of U.S. 30 and points south), but had to
keep chance POPS. By Sunday and Monday, the mid/upper ridge to
the west should expand into the area, and this should lift the
boundary northeastward and allow the higher heat and humidity to
build in. So, after a long stretch of cool and mostly pleasant
weather, the heat and humidity will make a comeback for the end
of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
IFR stratus across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania
will erode quickly this morning with a trend towards mostly
sunny skies. North winds will be 10 knots or less with a few
gusts to 20 knots in Northeast Ohio. Winds will become light and
variable tonight as high pressure builds overhead. There will
be potential for patchy fog tonight as ground moisture remains
high with nearly calm winds. Chances for fog are highest in
Northeast Ohio or at TOL where flow briefly turns off the lake
and contributes additional moisture beneath the inversion.


Outlook...Non-VFR visibility expected on Tuesday night with
fog. Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
night into Thursday, and again on Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
North winds of 10-15 knots with waves of 1 to 3 feet on the central
basin of Lake Erie this morning will decrease today as high pressure
builds south into the region. Generally good marine conditions with
winds of 15 knots or less will continue through Wednesday. Southwest
winds increase to 10-20 knots on Thursday ahead of a cold front.
Thunderstorms will be possible near or over Lake Erie on Thursday
which may result in erratic wind and wave conditions. Onshore flow
of 5-15 knots is likely heading into the weekend with high pressure
to the north and the frontal boundary stalled somewhere over the
Ohio Valley.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10