Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

651
FXUS61 KCLE 150021
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
721 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update when compared to the
previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Above-normal temperatures are expected to persist through
Friday, February 20th. The snowpack across the region will melt
during this time period. Rises on area rivers may increase the
potential for localized ice jams to develop.

2.) Periods of rain are expected, especially this Wednesday
through Friday.

3.) Colder weather with rain mixing with or changing to wet
snow expected this Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Aloft, primarily zonal (i.e. W`erly) flow should persist over
the eastern two-thirds of the northern tier of the United
States, including northern OH and NW PA, through Friday,
February 20th. This should allow unusually-warm air temperatures
to impact our region. At the surface, our region should
primarily reside in the warm sector based on the latest projected
mid-latitude cyclone track across the CONUS and vicinity. Afternoon
highs should reach the 40`s on Sunday, the lower 40`s to lower 50`s
on Monday, mid 40`s to mid 50`s Tuesday, and mainly the lower 50`s
to lower 60`s Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. On Friday,
daytime highs should reach the lower 40`s to lower 50`s, before a
cold front sweeps E`ward through our region. Overnight low
temperatures should be about 10F to 15F cooler than daytime highs
Sunday morning through Thursday morning.

Remaining snow cover across the region is expected to melt as
temperatures soar to well above normal values. Dew points in the
30`s this weekend should be followed by dew points reaching or
surpassing 40F at times this Monday through Friday. The melting
snow will contribute to some run-off and generally minor rises
on area streams, creeks, and rivers. Ice jams may develop. We
will continue to monitor this hydrological situation closely.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Primarily dry weather is expected through this Tuesday as high
pressure ridging and associated stabilizing subsidence impact
our region. However, after midnight tonight through about late
afternoon on Sunday, periods of light rain, associated with
moist isentropic ascent preceding a shortwave trough axis aloft,
should move generally E`ward across our CWA. Greater potential
for rain exists roughly along and especially south of U.S. Route
30. Additional periods of rain are forecast overnight Tuesday
night through Friday due, in part to the following reasons:
moist isentropic ascent preceding shortwave trough axes aloft;
low-level convergence and moist ascent along the aforementioned
cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Cyclonic W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft should impact our region
Friday night through Saturday as a longwave trough axis moves
from near the western Great Lakes to near the Gulf of Maine. At
the surface, associated troughing should linger over the eastern
Great Lakes, Upper OH Valley, and vicinity, including our CWA.
Moist isentropic ascent preceding shortwave trough axes embedded
in the cyclonic flow aloft should allow periods of precip to
impact our region. Rain should mix with or change to wet snow
Friday night into Saturday via CAA at the surface and aloft, and
the wet-bulb effect. Lows should be near 25F to 30F around
daybreak Saturday and be followed by afternoon highs in the
30`s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Low pressure entering the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys tonight
into Sunday will allow for clouds to billow in from the
southwest and spread over the terminals. Clouds will begin as
high level cirrus before falling into MVFR then IFR through the
late morning hours on Sunday. Some rain may try to enter the
southern terminals, including KMFD and KCAK, which may hold off
the low ceilings for a bit until the afternoon hours. Low
ceilings will persist through the rest of Sunday with
improvement slow during the evening. Winds will be southerly to
start and shift to the southwest with the passage of the low to
the south.

Outlook...Non-VFR continuing through Monday morning. Non-VFR
possible in rain Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie remains mostly ice covered. Light and variable winds
through Monday night as high pressure moves through the region.
Southwesterly winds Tuesday morning 10-15kts become southeasterly
Tuesday night 15-25kts, then back southwesterly 15-25kts Wednesday
into Wednesday night with the passage of a frontal system. Mild
pattern ahead will translate to some thawing of the ice covered lake
this week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...26