Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

564
FXUS61 KCLE 191051
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
651 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Freeze Warning has been issued for the entire area for tonight
into Monday morning. Some brief snow is expected late tonight in
NE OH and NW PA; any accumulations will be negligible.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A colder than normal air mass is entering the region,
allowing for temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below normal for the
third week of April. Frost and freeze headlines are in effect
and will be needed through Monday night with the cold air.

2) Scattered rain chances will continue this morning and tonight
with some changeover to snow overnight. Little snow accumulation
is expected in NE OH and NW PA.

3) The pattern will return to warmer weather starting on
Tuesday. There will be a window for showers and storms to return
on Tuesday night and Wednesday; the severe potential for storms
is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A deep upper trough is entering the Great Lakes region and
bringing a colder than normal air mass into the area. 850 mb
temperatures will dip to around -11 C and that will translate to
high temperatures remaining steady in the 40s today with low
temperatures tonight falling into the 20s for most with lower
30s near Lake Erie. The Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a
Freeze Warning. High pressure entering from the northwest for
Monday will dry out weather but keep temperatures cool in the
40s. Low temperatures will again be in the 20s and 30s and
another Freeze Warning will likely be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
With the upper trough moving through the region, this feature
will provide lift for additional rounds of showers this morning
and tonight. For this morning, a strong southwesterly jet will
move through aloft and support rain showers through daybreak.
For this afternoon and tonight the main upper trough axis will
approach with a secondary surface cold front and allow for
another round of showers to develop. Tonight, showers will
transition to lake enhanced showers with -8 to -11C at 850 mb
moving over an 8 to 10 C lake. Given the lake instability, the
rain could be convective and come with graupel/small hail with
the falling freezing levels. Eventually, precipitation will
transition to some snow. Snow ratios should be low with snow
favoring a more graupel-style vs. large dendrites. Surface and
pavement temperature remain well above freezing and will need
time to allow for accumulations, which is unlikely given the
brief window for precipitation. Therefore, will have just little
accumulation in the forecast with no impacts expected at this
time. High pressure entering from the northwest for Monday will
dry out the atmosphere and back winds through the day, ending
the rain/snow threat.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
A large ridge will enter the central US on Tuesday and expand
east into the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will moderate
once again into the 70s and eventually 80s later in the week,
bringing back a late Spring feeling. A weak trough will overtop
this ridge and allow a weak cold front into the region on
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This front will bring the
potential for scattered showers and storms. Both timing and
dynamics with this system appear unfavorable for severe weather
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Mainly VFR to MVFR ceilings are expected for this TAF update.
For most of the TAF sites outside of the snowbelt, VFR ceilings
are expected through the next 24 hours. In the Snowbelt region
like YNG and ERI, VFR ceilings are expected through this afternoon
with MVFR ceilings moving in after 00z through the evening.
Scattered light rain showers mixing with wet snow showers
possible in the snowbelt this evening. PROB30 groups are
mentioned for possible 5sm -shrasn between 00z and 06z at YNG
and ERI this evening. Winds will be westerly increasing to 12
to 18 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots today. Gusts will
relax after 00z this evening and become more northwesterly
around 10 knots or less.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Tuesday night and Wednesday in rain
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the entire near shore
water today. Winds will be from the west 15 to 20 knots with
gusts up to 30 knots and waves up to 4 feet. Winds will become
northwesterly around 10 knots tonight and Monday. Southerly
winds will return late Monday night 10 to 15 knots. Winds will
increase from the south on Tuesday 15 to 20 knots. We get close
to SCA headlines again on Tuesday with the offshore flow.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ003-006.
     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LEZ142-147>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ143>146.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77