Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

349
FXUS61 KCLE 011930
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
330 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
For tonight into Saturday morning, a Freeze Warning has been
issued for southern Erie and Crawford Counties in PA and a Frost
Advisory has been issued for most of northern OH. The advisory
excludes Erie, Lorain, Medina, Summit, and Cuyahoga Counties.
The potential for additional precipitation, mainly in the form
of rain, has increased this evening into Saturday morning,
especially along and near Lake Erie in northern OH.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Unusually-cold air temperatures persist through this
Saturday night. Frost and periodic sub-freezing air
temperatures remain a concern. In addition, periodic
precipitation, mainly in the form of rain, is expected through
Saturday afternoon.

2.) Near-normal to above-normal air temperatures return Sunday
through Tuesday night, when multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are possible.

3.) Below-normal air temperatures return Wednesday through
Friday, May 8th. Additional periods of rain are forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cyclonic W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances affect our region through Saturday as a mid/upper-
level low drifts E`ward over west-central QC. At the surface, a
high pressure ridge builds slowly from the north-central United
States and vicinity. This weather pattern evolution at the
surface and aloft will maintain a CAA regime and unusually-cold
air temperatures across our region. Partial clearing and easing
surface winds tonight will allow low temperatures to mainly
reach the lower to mid 30`s Saturday morning where the Freeze
Warning and Frost Advisory are in effect. Elsewhere, including
the Lake Erie Islands, lows in the upper 30`s to lower 40`s are
expected as lake-effect cloud cover contributes to less
nocturnal cooling. On Saturday, partly to mostly cloudy sky and
peeks of sunshine should be accompanied by afternoon highs
reaching only the mid 40`s to lower 50`s.

Widespread rain associated with moist isentropic ascent aloft,
ahead of a shortwave trough axis, will continue to depart our
CWA generally from west to east through this early evening.
Primarily dry weather is then expected through Saturday courtesy
of stabilizing subsidence accompanying the building ridge.
However, moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of a separate
shortwave trough axis, should generate isolated to scattered
showers late this afternoon through early Saturday afternoon as
the shortwave trough axis advances from the western Great Lakes
toward western NY and western PA. A mainly NW`erly mean low-level
flow of unusually-cold and sufficiently-moist air over/downwind
of ~11C Lake Erie and the development of weak lake-induced
instability should allow periodic lake-effect rain showers to
stream generally SE`ward across portions of NW OH and especially
NE OH and NW PA during this mid-evening through early Saturday
afternoon before lake-effect precip ends in response to lake-
induced CAPE waning via a lowering subsidence inversion. Rain
should be the predominant precip type this evening into
Saturday, but rain may mix with or change to wet snow at times
overnight tonight into Saturday morning in the higher terrain of
NE OH and NW PA. Any snow accumulations are expected to be less
than 0.5" and confined to the higher terrain of NW PA.

During Saturday night, NW`erly flow aloft and dry weather are
expected as a shortwave ridge builds from the western Great
Lakes and the surface portion of the ridge continues to build
from the west. Considerable clearing and weak or calm surface
winds will contribute to significant nocturnal cooling.
Accordingly, lows should reach mainly the upper 20`s to mid 30`s
and areas of frost are expected to form around daybreak Sunday.
Another Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning will be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

On Sunday, the ridge at the surface and aloft will depart E`ward
and allow a warm front to sweep N`ward through our region. The
warm front passage is expected to be dry due to a relatively-dry
low-level atmospheric column. WAA at the surface and aloft, along
the backside of the ridge, will contribute to late afternoon
highs reaching the mid 50`s to lower 60`s.

Primarily cyclonic and SW`erly to W`erly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave disturbances should impact our region Sunday night
through Tuesday night. At the surface, the aforementioned ridge
will continue to exit generally E`ward, subtle surface trough
axes, tied to the shortwave troughs aloft, will traverse our
area, and a cold front should sweep SE`ward through our region
Tuesday evening through Tuesday night. Periodic showers and
thunderstorms are expected as weak to moderate CAPE, including
elevated CAPE, is released by low-level convergence/moist ascent
along the surface trough axes and cold front, and by moist
isentropic ascent aloft ahead of shortwave trough axes. Ahead of
the cold front, low-level WAA should be accompanied by lows
reaching the 40`s to lower 50`s around daybreak Monday, late
afternoon highs reaching the 60`s to lower 70`s on Monday,
overnight lows reaching the 50`s around daybreak Tuesday, and
late afternoon highs reaching the 60`s to 70F on Tuesday. Lows
should reach the 40`s around daybreak Wednesday as colder air
overspreads our region behind the cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Cyclonic W`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs should
impact the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley on Wednesday
through Friday and be accompanied by primarily below-normal air
temperatures. This pattern should allow net surface troughing
to affect our CWA. Periodic rain showers are forecast due to
moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of shortwave trough axes,
and low-level convergence/moist ascent along surface trough
axes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Rain continues across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania
this afternoon. This is on the northwest side of low pressure
over eastern Ohio. Rain will diminish through 22Z as low
pressure tracks into New York this evening. Some IFR ceilings will
accompany the rain over the next few hours before lifting to
MVFR and then VFR for tonight. Winds are transitioning to
northwest/north behind the above mentioned low through 20Z but
will tend to remain 10 knots or less.

While some breaks in the clouds are expected tonight, lake
effect clouds and showers are expected to develop off of Central
Lake Erie and may impact CLE, with lesser confidence of reaching
MFD or CAK between 06-15Z. Clouds will tend to break away from
the lake by afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms late Monday through Wednesday as a cold front
moves southeast across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds of 10-15 knots this afternoon will decrease
tonight. Winds back to southwesterly on Saturday night as high
pressure settles south to the Ohio Valley. Winds increase to
15-20 knots by Sunday night but flow will be offshore through
Monday. Winds shift to northerly behind a cold front on Tuesday
night and a window of Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ003-
     006>008-017>019-027>031-036>038-047-089.
     Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Saturday
     for OHZ012>014-022-023-032-033.
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ001.
     Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Saturday
     for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10