Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

971
FXUS61 KCLE 231130
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
730 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Two main systems for this forecast, and the timing and elements of
each frontal system remain on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Expecting another surge of warmer weather today and Friday ahead of
the next low pressure system which will bring the next round of
showers/storms to the region.

2) Modest cool down this week in the wake of the first low pressure
system, and a second low pressure system expected late Monday
through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mid and upper level ridge builds into the southern Great Lakes,
continuing with an temperature increases for today and Friday. A
warm front will be slow to lift northeastward through the CWA today,
and have a short period of slight chance POPs accordingly. Weakening
low level jet and modest instability will hamper the thunderstorm
potential to a point as dewpoints linger in the low to mid 50s.
Steep low level lapse rates will assist with upward motion coupled
with forcing from the low level frontogenesis. Could get some wind
out of the showers and storms with and inverted V signature in the
boundary layer. Should be enough overall to warrant the Marginal
Risk on Day 2 from SPC. Temperatures will drop 10 to 15 degrees in
the wake of the cold front with area wide 60s for the Saturday max
temperatures. Should overall be less than an inch of rain with this
system, provided there are not any examples of training convection
occurring.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Gradual warm up, then another low pressure system moves in from the
west for the beginning of next week. 60s Sunday become 70s again
Monday. Southern plains region low pressure will move northeastward
into the the northern GReat Lakes. Low pressure will strengthen
along its track that will take the surface low west of the CWA.
Showers and storms develop late Monday and will continue through
Tuesday. Will have plenty of time to diagnose any severe weather
threat as the forecast time gets closer, but for now, this looks
like it will be a more organized system than the one expected the
end of this week. Temperatures fall off again by 10-15 degrees for
the middle of next week in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Some scattered patches of fog have developed across northern
Ohio this morning but conditions are improving with sunrise.
Some MVFR will remain possible over the next hour before fog
mixes out. VFR conditions are largely expected today with a warm
front entering the region. Any lower clouds will be this morning
before the area generally clears. Light southerly flow will be
favored across the region with lake breezes developing for KERI
and KCLE. There are still hints of isolated showers and maybe a
storm possibly developing in Central Ohio and this could get
into KMFD and/or KCAK late this afternoon. The development of
this convection is very conditional and is too low confidence at
this time to include in a TAF.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR
possible Friday afternoon through Saturday morning and on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
An uneventful marine forecast continues into the weekend and
into early next week with no marine headlines expected at this
time. For today, a warm front will enter the region and will
enter over the lake tonight. The front will struggle to advance
north and will likely not fully cross the lake. Therefore, will
have winds of light, mostly east to northeast flow through
Friday. A low pressure system will move southeast through the
Great Lakes region on Friday and cross the lake on Friday night.
Winds will shift to the west and northwest with 10-15 kts of
onshore flow. Behind this system, northerly flow will persist
into Saturday and Sunday with high pressure building from the
northwest. A large low pressure system will develop over the
central portion of the country. This system will lift a warm
front into the area on Monday, allowing for increasing easterly
flow on the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic