Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

321
FXUS61 KCLE 131156
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
756 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
With the latest forecast, there is a potential for snow showers to
nudge a bit further south this morning, impacting areas extending
from Cleveland to Erie. Little to no accumulation is expected. High
confidence remains in strong winds today with little changes needed
to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong winds are expected today which may result in downed trees
and power lines. Widespread power outages remain possible today.
Scattered rain/snow showers are also possible, especially across
northern counties.

2) Another robust low pressure system will impact the region on
Sunday and Monday, brining another round of strong winds. This
system will have more widespread precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1:
Confidence is high that a high wind event will occur today
across the area, likely resulting in areas of downed trees and
powerlines and the potential for widespread power outages. Hi-
res model guidance is persistent in a strong 850mb LLJ of 50-60
knots pushing across the area. Winds will quickly ramp up today
as the mixing layer deepens and lapse rates steepen. Current
models continue to suggest mixing heights increasing to almost
850mb this afternoon, leaving a direct path for this LLJ to mix
to the surface. Sustained winds today will reach 25 to 35 mph,
with gusts of 50 to 60 mph likely. The winds gusts will peak
this afternoon. Isolated `power showers` are also possible as
any shower that develops will aid in mixing these strong winds
to the surface. With that being said, much of the shower
potential should be focused across the northern counties and
Lake Erie, although cannot rule out a stray shower further
south. To account for these hazardous conditions, a High Wind
Warning remains in effect for the entire area today. Additional
elevated winds across far NEOH and NWPA tonight have warranted
an extension in the headline tonight with those counties now
expiring at 2AM EDT. Winds will return to 5 to 15 mph by
Saturday morning, lingering from the northwest.

KEY MESSAGE #2:
On Sunday, a deepening low pressure system will begin to move
northeast into the Great Lakes region, moving a warm front north
early Sunday. This system will become centered over the region on
Monday, moving a strong cold front east. Given the very strong
pressure gradient that is expected, confidence continues to increase
in another round of widespread, strong winds.

Winds will begin to ramp up Sunday afternoon behind the warm front
as temperatures climb into the 60s. Along the warm front, scattered
rain/snow showers are possible, although little to no accumulation
is expected. Winds will gradually back starting Sunday night as a
strong cold front is expected to begin to push east. A strong LLJ of
50 to 60 knots will push across the area, only enhancing surface
winds. Current forecast suggests sustained winds of 25-35 mph with
peak gusts of 40-50 mph possible Monday.

In addition, ahead and along this cold front, more widespread rain
showers are expected and given the strong dynamic set-up, cannot
rule out a few rumbles of thunder. These widespread showers will
progress east throughout the day on Monday, gradually transitioning
back to snow Monday afternoon as a CAA regime sets in. This means
that high temperatures for the day will likely occur Monday morning,
reaching into the 50s to 60s before quickly falling into the 20s
overnight. Initial snowfall accumulations should remain minimal
given the warmer antecedent conditions, but as showers approach
eastern counties Monday evening, CAA coupled with a setting sun may
result in snowfall accumulations of 1-3 inches.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A mix of snow and rain showers will be more widespread than
previously thought over the next 2 to 3 hours this morning as a
warm front works across the region bringing a band of precip.
Most of this will be light, but brief drops to MVFR/IFR are
possible anywhere. The best chance for IFR continues to be at
KERI. Once this band exits the region, mainly dry conditions are
expected today until scattered snow showers in the cold air
advection this evening into tonight, mainly in NE Ohio and NW
PA impacting KCLE and KERI.

The main issue today continues to be the high winds. Expect
winds to rapidly increase this morning, with SW winds of 25-35
knots gusting to 45 knots by 16Z at most terminals. Winds will
turn W behind the trailing cold front this afternoon, with gusts
over 50 knots likely, especially in NW Ohio and near the
lakeshore. W winds will gradually diminish tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely to return in rain/snow showers
Saturday night into Sunday. Non-VFR may linger in scattered
rain/snow showers on Monday with lake effect snow possible
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low pressure passing through the central Great Lakes
today will bring solid Gale conditions to all of Lake Erie. S to
SW winds will increase to 30-35 knots this morning before
further increasing to 30-40 knots this afternoon while becoming
WSW. Gusts to 50 knots are still expected this afternoon. This
will build wave heights to 10-13 feet in the central and eastern
basins and 6-9 feet in the western basin. Gale Warnings remain
in effect through 08Z Saturday for the entire lake, with a Low
Water Advisory for the western basin as the WSW winds drop water
levels 1-2 feet below low water datum.

The winds will slowly diminish tonight into Saturday morning and
will become light and variable during the day Saturday as high
pressure builds across the region. E winds will increase to
15-20 knots Saturday night, becoming SE and further increasing
to 20-30 knots by late Sunday. Winds will then turn S Sunday
night and eventually WSW Monday afternoon while further
increasing to 30-40 knots as another strong low crosses the
region, so Gales look likely again Sunday night into Monday. W
winds will gradually diminish Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
     High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ011>014-089.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ020>023-
     031>033-038.
PA...High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>147-162>167.
     Low Water Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Gale Warning from noon today to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ148-
     149-168-169.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas