Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

941
FXUS61 KCLE 220602
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
202 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Not much has changed. Main chances for rain over the next week are
tonight, late Friday into early Saturday, and Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and perhaps some thunder are likely tonight, with a few
afternoon showers/storms possible towards central Ohio on Wednesday.
The concern for heavy rain and/or severe weather is very low.

2) The next round of rain is favored late Friday into Saturday,
again with minimal concerns for severe weather and/or flooding.

3) Unsettled weather returns Monday and Tuesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A low-amplitude shortwave will dive east-southeast across the region
tonight, pulling a weak cold front across the local area Wednesday
morning. The front will stall just south-southwest of our forecast
area Wednesday afternoon as weak high pressure builds in locally.

Synoptic lift along and ahead of the shortwave and approaching front
will interact with a modest pool of elevated instability (<500 J/KG
of MUCAPE) to bring scattered to numerous showers to the area late
this evening into the overnight tonight, quickly settling to the
east-southeast by early Wednesday. There should be enough elevated
instability for some rumbles of thunder tonight, but severe weather
and/or flooding are not concerns. The front will stall very close to
our southwestern counties Wednesday afternoon, and as instability
builds isolated to scattered showers/thunder will likely re-develop
along it. Most of our area will remain dry as light winds turn off of
Lake Erie, leading to a cooler/more stable environment. However, a
low shower/thunder chance is evident across our southwestern counties
Wednesday afternoon. There is again a minimal to nil severe weather
risk. Slow storm motion could allow a couple of spots to see an inch
of rain in our far southwest late Wednesday, though this would be
quite isolated and the risk for flooding is also minimal.

It will be much milder tonight, with lows mainly settling into the
50s. Highs on Wednesday will range from the 60s closer to the lake in
Northeast OH and Northwest PA to the mid 70s along I-75 and across
our southern counties towards central OH. Lows will range from the
40s east to the low-mid 50s in our southwest Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An Omega Block type pattern will develop across much of central and
eastern North America the second half of this week as closed lows
aloft park over the northern Rockies and over the Canadian Maritimes,
with ridging in between. A flat shortwave and associated weak
surface low is expected to work east across the region late Friday
into Saturday. This will slowly lift our stalled front back northeast
late Thursday into early Friday as a warm front, followed by a cold
front Friday night into Saturday. While a stray shower can`t be ruled
out with the lifting warm front Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning, most of the area will remain rain-free until greater rain
chances arrive from the west ahead of the approaching cold front
later Friday and Friday night. Greatest rain chances are Friday night
into early Saturday, diminishing from west to east through the day
Saturday. Given the blocking pattern the system will be slow moving,
and it is possible Saturday is a rather damp day across at least the
eastern half or so of the area. There is not much concern for severe
weather or flooding with this system, though with the slow-moving
nature of the system and what will likely be at least some weak
convective component to the rain it`s possible portions of the area
see locally over an inch of rain from late Friday into Saturday.

Aside from perhaps the eastern lakeshore, much of the area is
expected to push well into the 70s for highs Thursday and Friday with
seasonably mild overnight lows mainly in the 50s, with perhaps some
40s across our eastern counties. Saturday will be a cooler day with
highs expected to range from the upper 50s to mid 60s (warmer west).

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A period of drier weather is likely Saturday night through Sunday
night as high pressure briefly slides across the area. The blocking
pattern breaks down early next week as a shortwave ejects into the
central Plains on Monday and lifts east-northeast into the Great
Lakes Tuesday. This will bring renewed chances for rain to the area.
Heavy rain and/or severe weather potential are uncertain this far
out, though the dynamics do appear at least somewhat supportive.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Rain showers with some very isolated embedded thunderstorms are
moving across the eastern half of the airspace early this
morning. This convection will push southeast out of the area
over the next several hours. Terminal impacts are very limited
with the rain with very brief MVFR, if anything, but confidence
in non-VFR is too low to put into a TAF at this time. The
supporting frontal boundary will slow over the area and mainly
be a source for clouds today. Prior expectations of MVFR
conditions with and behind the front tonight are not
materializing with a very dry low-level air mass in place and
have removed much of the MVFR ceilings from the TAFs. Mid-level
clouds will be in and out of the region today. During the late
afternoon and evening hours, some new shower and thunderstorm
activity may develop in Indiana and spread into Northwest Ohio.
There are concerns about whether or not this convection will
materialize and what the coverage will be like, so have not hit
it too heavily. However, if there is a more likely site to see
any TS or non-VFR impacts, it would be KFDY and have a PROB30
there. High pressure building into the region late in the TAF
period will allow for clearing conditions and light winds.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and storms
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign weather and generally light winds remain expected on
Lake Erie through the forecast period. Conditions are starting
off quiet with light southwesterly flow ahead of a front. This
front should eventually allow for winds to become onshore today.
High pressure building from the north tonight will shift winds
to the east/northeast through Thursday. This surface high will
shift east on Thursday night and allow for light southerly flow
to be favored near the shoreline. A low pressure system will
target the region for Friday and Saturday. Southeast to east
flow will increase ahead of this system on Friday. The low will
then move southeast across the lake on Saturday and winds will
shift around to the north, where they should remain for the
weekend, as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. No marine
weather headlines are expected at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic