Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

870
FXUS61 KCLE 221858
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
258 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers continue to exit through this evening, leaving a
period of dry and pleasant weather through Wednesday.

2) Potential for showers and thunderstorms returns Wednesday
night into Thursday ahead of a cold front.

3) Intermittent potential for rain this weekend into early next
week, with a gradual warming trend beginning on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Weak low pressure over the Upper Ohio Valley this afternoon will
transfer to off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight into Tuesday,
with high pressure building into the Great Lakes for Tuesday and
Wednesday. We will continue to gradually dry out through this
evening, though may not see significant clearing until later
tonight into early Tuesday from west to east. Tuesday and
Wednesday will be dry and pleasant, though with potential for
some radiation fog Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A low amplitude shortwave trough and associated weak low
pressure will track through the Great Lakes Wednesday night
and Thursday. This will lift a warm front across the local area
late Wednesday night/early Thursday, followed quickly by a cold
front Thursday afternoon and evening.

Potential for showers and perhaps a bit of thunder spread in
from the west Wednesday night ahead of the approaching warm
front. There will be some support in the form of the exit region
of an incoming jet streak and modest low to mid-level warm air
advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, with a bit
of elevated instability trying to advect in from the west. So,
not expecting a particularly widespread or heavy rain Wednesday
night or early Thursday but there`s enough to have a chance
mentioned. The cold front is favored to cross Thursday
afternoon or early evening. Models exhibit some disagreement
regarding the exact timing of the frontal passage and amount of
forcing for ascent with the shortwave passing just to our north
on Thursday and exiting to the east later in the day. However,
the frontal timing during peak heating hours supports another
round of at least scattered showers and storms from roughly
Sandusky to Marion points east Thursday afternoon and early
evening. Mid-level lapse rates will likely be modest, though
sufficient heating could allow moderate instability to develop
with moderate deep-layer shear. Overall, we are eying Thursday
afternoon and evening for another round of at least scattered
convection across parts of our area. Some potential for severe
weather may pan out, especially if the front is slow enough to
allow for convection to develop and begin maturing across
central and eastern portions of our area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Thursday`s front will likely settle into the Ohio Valley by
Friday morning, and will waiver just to our south through the
weekend and early next week. While high pressure over the
Northeast will try to keep us rain-free, waves tracking along
the front may lift it back far enough north at times to bring
rain potential, especially farther south across our area.
Ridging aloft gradually starts building from the central and
into the eastern U.S. by early next week, signaling what should
be a gradual but more prolonged warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Mixed-bag of MVFR and IFR across the TAF sites this afternoon,
mainly associated with low ceilings, though some lower vsbys
will remain possible in rain showers over the next couple of
hours, primarily east of the I-71 corridor. Can`t rule out a few
rumbles of thunder, but the overall chances are low. Otherwise,
ceilings will gradually lift to VFR through this evening from
west to east. Attention then turns towards tonight into Tuesday
morning, particularly along and east of the I-77 corridor where
an area of IFR ceilings and mist/fog will develop. A few pockets
of LIFR ceilings cannot be ruled out, especially at CAK/YNG/ERI
and may be added in future TAF updates. Conditions will
gradually improve to VFR through Tuesday morning.

Winds are generally out of the north to northeast this
afternoon, 8 to 12 knots. Winds will remain out of the north to
northeast through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday night into Thursday, and again on Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds will ramp up to 20-25 knots on Lake Erie today as
low pressure tracks from Central Ohio east into Pennsylvania. Waves
will build to 4 to 8 feet with onshore flow. Small Craft Advisories
and Beach Hazards are in effect through 4 PM west of the Lake Erie
Islands and 10 PM east of the Islands. North winds will decrease
tonight as the low departs and high pressure strengthens over the
Great Lakes.

The next low pressure system will pass north of Lake Erie on
Thursday with a cold front stalling just south of the lake on
Friday. Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will veer to northwesterly
but look to remain at 15 knots or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     OHZ003-007.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ142-
     143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...10