Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

448
FXUS61 KCLE 100716
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
216 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast for this issuance. Keeping up
with some higher confidence and higher snow amounts in NW PA/NE
OH. Quiet into the end of the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of lake effect snow showers likely across portions
of the snowbelt region of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania Tuesday night in through early Thursday.

2) High pressure moves in for the end of the week and the
beginning of the weekend as temperatures trend towards normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front will accelerate through the CWA later today with a
slightly delayed increase in the low level moisture in the wake
of it after 03Z tonight. The saturation combined with the cold
air advection in the lower levels will generate snow showers
targeted for the snow belt region through Wednesday and into the
early morning hours Thursday. Accumulations likely mainly
through longevity of the periodic snow showers, and looking at
peak values of 2-4 inches in NW PA, with progressively lesser
amount further west.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure moves back into the region for the end of the week
and the first part of the weekend with temperatures that will be
trending back towards more normal values for mid February, and
this means daytime highs above freezing heading into the
weekend. Largely quiet and dry otherwise. Will be watching a
southern stream low pressure system passing to the south of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the majority of the TAF
period as high pressure builds off to the east ahead of an
approaching low pressure system. Widespread ceilings of around
10kft are seen across the region and should continue through
this morning. There`s low potential for precipitation for KERI
Tuesday morning, but latest trends keep it to the northeast with
no impacts for the airfield. MVFR to IFR ceilings will move in
from the west-southwest Tuesday afternoon as a cold front sweeps
through the region. Ceilings will rise to MVFR at locations that
dropped to IFR after 00Z Wednesday when the front has cleared
the region.

Winds will be a concern throughout the TAF period as they will
be shifting around the low with the passing warm and cold
fronts. Kept the mention of LLWS for KTOL starting at 12Z as
mixing won`t occur until the mid morning. Other sites across
the region will be mixing enough by the time the stronger low
level winds move through to allow for gusts at the surface, so
left out LLWS at those airfields. Throughout the day, winds will
shift from out of the south to the west-northwest by the end of
the TAF period with sustained with 10-15 knots and gusting
20-25 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in snow showers across NE OH and NW
PA Tuesday evening through Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie remains nearly completely ice-covered. Satellite and
analysis depict an area of thinner ice extending from east of the
Lake Erie Islands to along the northern shoreline. There are also
multiple large cracks in the ice across the central basin. South
winds increase to 10-15kt this morning ahead of a cold front,
shifting west-northwest at 15-20kt this evening and tonight behind
the front. West-northwest winds persist at 15-20kt through
Wednesday, before gradually weakening Wednesday night and Thursday.

The milder temperatures and offshore flow today increases the risk
of ice floes breaking away from the southern shoreline of Lake Erie,
noting that satellite imagery has shown some movement and new cracks
in the ice over the last couple days over the central basin.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...23
MARINE...Sullivan