Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

689
FXUS61 KCLE 100018
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected near
the lakeshore this evening into tonight followed by more
widespread rain Friday. Severe weather is not expected.

2) Much above normal temperatures Sunday through most of next week
with gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
W`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances continue
to affect our region through daybreak Friday. At the surface, a
front has stalled in vicinity of the Toledo metro area and the
southern shore of Lake Erie in our CWA. After about 9 PM EDT
this evening, the front is expected to begin to shift back
N`ward as a warm front and become located near the northern
shore of Lake Erie by daybreak Friday as one frontal low
wobbles E`ward across northern QC and another frontal low
wobbles NE`ward from northern KS to southeastern Lower MI.
Primarily dry weather is expected through daybreak Friday as the
boundary layer stabilizes via nocturnal cooling. However,
isolated rain showers are expected over and very near Lake Erie
in our CWA, especially prior to midnight EDT tonight, as moist
isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the front releases
weak and elevated CAPE. Low temperatures should reach mainly the
lower to mid 50`s around daybreak Friday as net low-level WAA
behind the front contributes to somewhat limited nocturnal
cooling.

Expect favorable mid/upper-level jet streak dynamics and
associated large-scale tropospheric ascent to permit the
coverage of rainfall to be much more widespread on Friday as
the weak low crosses the southern Great Lakes and pushes the
front generally southward as a cold front in our CWA. The right
entrance region of a 90-100 knot H3 jet streak crossing Lower
Michigan will generate a swath of fairly steady rain across
Illinois, Indiana, and Lower Michigan Friday morning that will
slowly sink across the region during the day. In terms of
timing, expect rain to reach a Sandusky to Findlay line by 14Z
and an Erie, PA to Mansfield line by 18Z. The swath of rain
showers will then continue sinking slowly southward the rest of
the afternoon and evening. Abundant cloud cover and rain will
keep instability very low Friday, so while isolated
thunderstorms are possible in our southern counties Friday
afternoon, no severe weather is expected. Any storms will
produce locally heavier rain. Total rainfall on Friday should
average 0.35 inches or less in our CWA, but localized higher
amounts are possible from thunderstorms. Even so, flooding is
not expected. A few peeks of sunshine and low-level WAA ahead of
the cold front should allow daytime highs to reach mainly the
60`s to lower 70`s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The frontal boundary will briefly be forced south to the Ohio
River Valley Saturday behind the low as Canadian high pressure
at the surface builds down across the Great Lakes. This will
bring cooler temperatures, especially near the lakeshore, as
low-level winds turn NE. The change will be short lived though
as the front already lifts back northward Sunday in response to
a strong mid/upper low progressing into the California/Oregon
coasts forcing strong amplification of mid/upper ridging over
the eastern CONUS. This will set up a broad southwesterly flow
pattern through most of next week leading to very warm and
increasingly humid conditions. Temperatures will climb into the
low to upper 70s Sunday and Monday and upper 70s to low 80s
Tuesday and Wednesday. The next cold front continues to trend
slower, so temperatures will likely stay well into the 70s
through Thursday.

In addition to this being an unseasonably warm pattern, it will
also be an active pattern as the aforementioned closed low
slowly progresses into the Plains by midweek and evolves into a
broad mid/upper trough. This will eject weak shortwaves across
the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys in the broad SW flow, and given
the increasing low-level moisture and instability, periods of
showers and thunderstorms will result. There will not be much in
the way of forcing until the main piece of the remnant trough
approaches toward the end of the week, so expect convection to
be scattered and peak during the afternoon/evening diurnal
cycles until perhaps a more organized round toward Wednesday or
Thursday depending on how the trough and associated cold front
evolve. Again, the trend has been slower.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
W`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect our region
through 00Z/Sat. Variable amounts of low/mid/upper-level cloud
cover will precede the disturbances` axes. At the surface, a
front has stalled in vicinity of KTOL and the southern shore of
Lake Erie as of 23:30Z/Thurs. This front should begin to drift
N`ward as a warm front after 00Z/Fri and near the northern shore
of Lake Erie by 12Z/Fri as a low wobbles NE`ward from northern
KS to southeastern Lower MI. The low should then wobble farther
NE`ward to near the QC/ME border and strengthen through
00Z/Sat. This should allow the trailing cold front to sweep
SE`ward across our region between ~16Z/Fri and 00Z/Sat. Behind
the cold front, a ridge builds from the north-central United
States.

Prior to the cold front passage, our regional surface
winds should trend S`erly to SW`erly around 5 to 15 knots and
gust up to about 25 knots at times after ~14Z/Fri. Note: the
development of a nocturnal and SW`erly low-level jet of ~40 to
60 knots at/near 925 mb is expected to result in a period of
low-level wind shear overnight tonight until ~14Z/Fri. Behind
the cold front, our regional surface winds veer to NW`erly and
then toward N`erly while remaining around 5 to 15 knots in
response to the building ridge.

Mainly dry weather and VFR are expected for the time being.
However, periods of light to moderate rain and isolated
thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR are possible along and near
the southern shore of Lake Erie through ~05Z/Fri as the
aforementioned stalled front eventually begins to shift N`ward.
This includes KTOL, KCLE, and KERI. Ahead of and along the cold
front at the surface and aloft, widespread light to moderate
rain and lower ceilings should overspread our region generally
from west to east between ~13Z/Fri and ~17Z/Fri. Once the rain
arrives, conditions should deteriorate to MVFR to IFR fairly
quickly. As the surface ridge builds behind the cold front, rain
should end generally from northwest to southeast at/near KTOL
and KCLE after ~21Z/Fri, but widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings
should persist.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic rain showers Friday
night and again this Sunday through Tuesday. Periodic
thunderstorms should occur this Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will drop down into the southern Great Lakes this
evening, and will push completely through the region Friday.
Offshore winds will become onshore behind the cold front as wave
heights increase to the 1-3ft range through Saturday. Winds become
offshore once again through Sunday night, and then increase out of
the southwest to the 15-25kts range Monday through Tuesday. During
that time frame, wave heights will increase rapidly with distance
from shore and will be in the 3-5ft range in the open water
zones.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas/Jaszka
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...26