Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

507
FXUS61 KCLE 161901
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
301 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant chances were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms
possible tonight through Sunday and again late Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2) Warmer weather expected Sunday into mid-week with near record
highs possible early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
It will remain unsettled across the region tonight through
Sunday as a series of shortwaves will move overhead. Ongoing
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to push east
across the forecast are through this evening giving way to a
brief period of dry weather tonight. Hi- res models are having a
fairly difficult time with precipitation chances tomorrow as
another shortwave moves overhead. For now, stuck with slight
chance to chance PoPs in the forecast Sunday afternoon and early
evening to account for any isolated showers/thunderstorms that
may develop along a warm front.

Precipitation chances will return late Tuesday through Wednesday as
a strong cold front swings east. Some prefrontal showers and storms
will be possible during the day on Tuesday with more widespread
precipitation chances along the cold front. Expect for temperatures
behind the cold front on Wednesday and Thursday to fall roughly 10-
15 degrees.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Broad southwesterly to southerly flow will usher in much warmer
conditions to end the weekend and begin early next week. Highs
warm into the upper 80s areawide on Monday and mid 80s by
Tuesday. Temperatures through the first half of May have been
below average which will likely lead to this quick hit of heat
to feel noticeably warm. Peak heat index values will range
between the upper 80s to lower 90s. Take steps to reduce time in
the sun during the warmest part of the day and remain hydrated.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Multiple rounds of light showers will move east across the
eastern portion of area through early this evening. A few
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out primarily at KERI this
afternoon, but as of now it appears that the majority of the
area is stabilized from early day convection so the overall
thunderstorm risk is low across most of the area at this point.
In general, flight conditions will be VFR/MVFR in somewhat lower
ceilings and showers through this afternoon with a period of
clearing likely this evening, although MVFR ceilings may persist
across interior NE OH/NW PA through late this evening. Light
winds and lingering low-level moisture will result in lower
stratus and patchy fog, best chance at KMFD/KYNG and possibly
KCAK early Sunday morning with improving conditions expected
after daybreak.

Winds will be out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts
to 25 knots through early this evening with locally stronger
winds possible in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Winds diminish below 10 knots overnight before becoming a bit
more southerly and increasing to 5 to 10 knots by late
morning/early afternoon Sunday. Winds will be variable close to
the lakeshore on Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, though chances are
lower. Non-VFR likely at times in showers/thunderstorms late
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds to 15 to 20 knots are expected this afternoon
with winds diminishing below 15 knots later this evening. Winds
will be light and variable for a period during the day Sunday before
flow shifts to the southwest on Monday. Periods of elevated
winds to 15 to 20 knots are expected during the day Monday and
Tuesday with the strongest winds likely in the western basin of
the lake. Small Craft Advisories may be needed early in the
week, especially if winds trend higher. Winds will shift to the
northwest behind a cold front on Wednesday with flow becoming
more north/northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds/waves
should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria for most of
this time, although there may be a brief period of Small Craft
Advisory conditions as onshore winds increase in the western and
central basins on Wednesday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15