Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

956
FXUS61 KCLE 231134
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
634 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have raised snow amounts in southeastern Cuyahoga and northern
Geauga Counties to have isolated 6-7" totals for the ongoing
lake enhanced snow event. There is increasing potential for
additional winter weather headlines for Tuesday night into
Wednesday for NW PA with a clipper system.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake enhanced snow will continue through tonight across the
region. The greatest snow amounts and potential travel impacts
will be from North Central Ohio to Northwest PA, mainly in the
higher elevations south and east of Cleveland and southeast of
Erie.

2) A clipper system will bring another round of snow to the area
on Tuesday night into Wednesday. The highest snow amounts and
possible travel impacts will be in Northwest PA. Another round
of Winter Weather Advisories may be needed.

3) The local area will be on the cold side of a strong low
pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley on Thursday. This
system will bring widespread accumulating snowfall that could
have more travel impacts. While there is increasing confidence
in snow as the precipitation type, the low track remains in
question, which will have implications on how much snow will be
expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper trough over the eastern United States is supporting a
large low pressure system and blizzard up the East Coast.
Locally, this system is more tame allowing for persistent snow
showers across the region that has so far produced 1 to 3 inches
of snow over the last 24 hours. Some upslope and lake
enhancement will accelerate this morning and allow for an
additional 2 to 5 inches of snow with higher in NW PA. Some of
the 36-to-48 hour snow totals will start to become problematic
in the range of 3 to 6 inches in Winter Weather Advisory areas
and over 6 inches in the higher hills of Erie County, PA. There
was some brief consideration for an upgrade to a Winter Storm
Warning for Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties, as some isolated
totals in the hills of northern Geauga and eastern and southern
Cuyahoga could creep over the 6 inch mark. However, the advisory
messaging of a potentially messy morning commute today has been
out there and the impacts of this longer duration event may not
limp higher into the warning category, so have opted to stay
put with the current suite of winter headlines for the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A clipper system will dive southeast across the Great Lakes on
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will bring additional
snow to the forecast area with the highest snow expected out
east in NW PA. Current forecast totals for PA will be in the
range of 2 to 4 inches and there is potential for another set of
Winter Weather Advisories to be issued. The one caveat for this
system will be the amount of warm air advecting into the region.
Overall, the warm nose of temperatures above freezing aloft will
likely fall just short of the local forecast area, allowing for
only snow. However, these warmer temperatures will cut snow
ratios considerably and allow for less efficient snowfall. If
these warmer temperatures trend further north, then advisories
may be off the table for NW PA.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
There has been a persistent signal for a low pressure system to
move through the Ohio Valley on Thursday with a broader upper
trough moving through the central and eastern United States. The
trends over the last couple of model cycles have been that the
local area will be on the colder side of this system and any
precipitation is favoring snow at this time. While p-type
consensus is building, there are still issues with the eventual
track of the surface low with overall trends keeping this system
fairly far south - to the point where the forecast area could
end up staying dry with precipitation staying south, closer to
the low path. This system will need to be monitored over the
next couple of days, as there is potential for widespread
accumulating snowfall and a non-zero chance for impacts and
winter headlines.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
MVFR/IFR conditions are expected in lake-enhanced snow and
clouds through the majority of the TAF period. Periodic LIFR
conditions are possible in pockets of moderate snow this
morning, best chance at KCLE/KERI. Snowfall rates should
gradually diminish this afternoon into this evening, allowing
conditions to improve to at least MVFR. VFR conditions will
likely develop at KTOL/KFDY by late afternoon or early evening
with VFR spreading to KMFD tonight.

Northwest winds to 12 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to
periodically 30 knots are expected during the day today. Winds
will diminish to 8 to 14 knots this evening before diminishing
to 10 knots or less at around 06Z Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR in snow and low clouds expected Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning. Non-VFR may return again on
Thursday as another system moves through the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Breezy northwest winds in response to deep low pressure off the
New England coast are expected today. The strongest winds of 20
to 25 and possibly as high as 30 knots are expected from
roughly east of the Islands to Conneaut with slightly lighter
winds to 15 to 25 knots expected west and east. While Small
Craft Advisories remain suspended due to ice on Lake Erie, waves
in ice free areas in the central basin may build as high as 3
to 6 feet this afternoon into early this evening. The northwest
winds will likely cause ice in the open waters to shift towards
the lakeshore. Northwest winds will diminish this evening with
sustained winds to about 10 to 15 knots expected by late
tonight. Offshore flow will develop and deepen on Tuesday with
west/southwest winds to 20 to 25 knots expected Tuesday night
through Wednesday. West winds will once again diminish to 10 to
15 knots Wednesday night before becoming variable by late week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ009-
     019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ010>014-
     020-021-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ001-003.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ002.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15