Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

306
FXUS61 KCLE 070527
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
127 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.
&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through this
evening. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rain are the
primary hazards.

2.) After a brief cool down Sunday, heat will build next week. The
combination of air temperatures and humidity may cause heat indices
to exceed 100 by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

As of about 730 PM EDT, a line of showers and thunderstorms
extended from Ottawa County through northern
Ashland/southwestern Medina counties with isolated to scattered
storms present to the south and southwest of this line. As of
now, the strongest storms are on the leading/southeastern end of
this line where there is more instability to work with. Storms
may produce damaging wind gusts and hail over the next couple of
hours, but generally expect convection to weaken with the loss
of diurnal instability over the next couple of hours,
especially to the northwest where storms have trained and worked
the atmosphere over. The main line of storms is following a
somewhat tight instability gradient so expect showers and storms
to continue a southeastward progression. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is in effect for portions of northern Ohio through 11 PM
tonight, but it`s likely that some (if not all) of the watch
will be gradually cleared as the severe weather risk continues
to dwindle. Will need to keep an eye on hydro since storms are
training a bit, although the more rural landscape and dry
antecedent conditions will likely prevent a significant
flooding risk.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The first official heat wave of the season is likely next week
(temperatures greater than or equal to 90 for 3 or more consecutive
days). After a brief cool down Sunday as the mid/upper trough axis
digs through the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. and Canadian
high pressure at the surface builds across the Great Lakes, an
upstream mid/upper ridge will build eastward from the Plains. This
ridge will become strongest across the eastern CONUS Thursday
through Saturday ahead of a mid/upper trough swinging from the
northern Rockies through the northern Plains.

Expect high temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 80s Monday then
low 90s Tuesday as dew points increase. This will yield heat indices
well into the 90s Tuesday. An old cut off low/shortwave ejecting out
of the southern Plains and into the Great Lakes region late Tuesday
into Wednesday will lead to greater coverage of convection and cloud
cover, so temperatures Wednesday should briefly back off into the
mid/upper 80s. However, expect the hottest conditions Thursday and
Friday as the ridge axis strengthens overhead and SW flow deepens.
Temperatures solidly into the low 90s and dew points in the low 70s
will yield heat indices potentially over 100 degrees Thursday and
Friday. The NWS HeatRisk map shows widespread major impacts
Wednesday through Saturday due to the cumulative effects, so heat
headlines may be needed late in the week.

Widely scattered convection will continue in the hot and humid
airmass Thursday and Friday, but a potential for more organized
convection may occur Saturday as the upstream trough and associated
cold front start to break the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Showers and storms have exited the region with clear skies and
VFR conditions under high pressure behind the cold front. Patchy
fog is expected to develop overnight tonight given yesterday`s
rainfall and calm winds. Have TEMPO groups in at all TAF sites
except KTOL and KERI for MVFR/IFR visibilities from ~08Z/Sun through
12Z/Sun. Expect for any fog to dissipate this morning giving
way to VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period.

Light and variable winds overnight tonight will become northerly
to northeasterly at 5-10 knots this morning.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms early Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build over the lake today giving
way to light onshore flow. Winds turn easterly while increasing
to 5-15 knots on Monday. A warm front approaches the lake on
Tuesday allowing for winds to shift southerly while remaining
between 10-15 knots. Southerly to southwesterly flow will
continue through the remainder of the week. Not anticipating any
marine headlines.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13