Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

648
FXUS61 KCLE 190813
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
413 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slowed down the timing of thunderstorms for this afternoon with the
main window for stronger storms between 5 PM in the west and 10
PM in the east. Lowered high temperatures across the north by a
couple degrees behind the front on Wednesday. Chances of a
widespread rain continue to increase for Friday and Friday
night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions continue today with showers and
thunderstorms expected late this afternoon into tonight. There is a
Slight Risk of severe weather (Level 2 of 5) with thunderstorms
today with scattered pockets of damaging winds the main hazard.

2) Much cooler air will arrive behind a cold front for Wednesday and
Thursday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be 20-30 degrees
cooler than Tuesday.

3) Widespread rain is expected Friday afternoon and night with
unsettled conditions continuing into the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure is located over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
early this morning and is forecast to continue northeast today.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across Wisconsin and
western Illinois but are expected weaken through early morning
as they continue to move eastward. Meanwhile the local area is
located in the warm sector with high temperatures forecast to
reach the upper 80s again this afternoon and dewpoints gradually
creeping upward into the mid 60s by this afternoon. This will
result in slightly more humid conditions than Monday but with
fairly similar heat index values near 90 degrees.

Instability ahead of the eastward moving trough is expected to
weaken through early this morning then start to build across eastern
Indiana and Ohio for the afternoon. ML CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg
are expected in NW Ohio with closer to 1200 J/kg in the east. A
shortwave moves through the Upper Great Lakes late this afternoon
and a pre-frontal surface trough advances into NW Ohio and is
expected to serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms. While a
stray shower is possible earlier in the day, the main area of
activity is expected to develop towards 5 PM near Toledo and
spread eastward through the evening. High level cloud may
outpace the better forcing but as we get towards evening that
may not be as significant. Overall expecting a corridor of
20-30 knots of 0-6km shear which could support scattered strong
to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds are expected to be the
primary hazard but can not rule out a few reports of hail or an
isolated tornado, mainly if surface winds back sufficiently
ahead of the trough. Locally heavy rain is also expected with
thunderstorms tonight with pockets of 0.50" to 1.25" as storm
motion may be parallel to the flow aloft.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The above mentioned cold front will extend from roughly Youngstown
to Marion by Wednesday morning, quickly pushing south of the area.
High temperatures in the south will occur early in the morning with
falling temperatures while locations along the I-75 corridor may be
able to achieve some late afternoon warming. With that said,
lowered high temperatures from Lorain to Cleveland to Erie where
highs may not reach 60 degrees with flow off the lake. Overall
highs temperatures on Wednesday will range from 20-28 degrees
cooler than what was experienced on Tuesday. Showers will be
limited to the far south by afternoon with diminishing trends.
Any clearing is likely to be late in the day. The cool airmass
will remain for Thursday with a brisk wind off Lake Erie.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Long range models are coming into better agreement late this week.
An upper level trough will move east of the Rocky Mountains with
shortwave energy lifting north through the Ohio Valley. Moisture
streaming north results in overrunning across Ohio which expands
into northern Ohio during the afternoon and evening on Friday. This
is expected to be a healthy push of rain as the warm front lifts
north into Saturday. Temperatures on Friday will still be cooler in
the 60s, before hopefully trending warmer into the 70s on Saturday.
The QPF forecast from Friday through Saturday ranges from three
quarters of an inch to an inch and a half. The rain may become more
intermittent by Saturday afternoon but scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible into Sunday. Although timing
varies between models, eventually the trough will lift northeast
through the Great Lakes Region with drier air arriving from the
west and reducing potential for showers and storms in the late
Sunday-Monday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions early this morning. The main focus of the TAFs
remains shower/thunderstorm potential. A few showers are
possible between about 11-18z from west to east. Activity should
be fairly sparse and restrictions would be brief and limited, so
at the moment only included VCSH. Attention then turns to
thunderstorms that are likely to develop late this afternoon and
spread east across the area through this evening ahead of a cold
front. There is some amount of uncertainty with the timing and
placement of these storms if earlier activity ends up more
robust than expected. The current TAFs assume that earlier
activity won`t be too detrimental to the main thunderstorm
threat this evening, and has TS included at all sites with
TEMPOs for more significant restrictions and wind gusts with
thunderstorms. Showers likely linger into tonight as the cold
front pushes into the area, though convective potential should
decrease by late this evening. MVFR ceilings are likely behind
the cold front, which begins getting into the TAFs at TOL/CLE.

South-southwest winds of 6-12kt will continue through early this
morning. Have low-level wind shear in at several locations given
a 40-45kt southwesterly low-level jet and poor low-level mixing.
Winds increase to 10-20kt with gusts 25-30kt later this morning
and this afternoon as low-level wind shear ends. Some
thunderstorms late today into tonight may be severe with
isolated peak gusts over 50kt possible with any severe storms.

Outlook...Non-VFR continues into Wednesday in lower ceilings and
possibly rain showers. Non-VFR possible in showers Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
South-southwest winds continue until a cold front crosses the
lake overnight tonight. Winds will generally be in the 10-20kt
range, with gusts in the nearshore waters of 25-30kt likely this
afternoon. Will go with a Small Craft Advisory from Erie County
OH points west where winds will be gustiest...not quite as
gusty farther east, though still on the breezy side. Waves of
1-3 feet in the nearshore will increase to 2-4 feet in the open
waters today. Thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late this
afternoon and evening may produce strong wind gusts over 35kt
and locally up to 50kt over the lake. Winds whip around to the
north- northeast late tonight into Wednesday at 10-17kt behind
the cold front, keeping 1-3 foot waves going. Winds increase to
15-20kt and gradually turn more northeasterly into Thursday and
easterly into Friday as strong high pressure passes north and
northeast of the lake. East-northeast winds often perform well
in these types of setups and have continued to inch up in the
forecast, and a period of small craft/beach hazards headlines is
looking increasingly likely for at least some of the nearshore
waters late this week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high temperature occurred at Erie, Pennsylvania on Monday.
High temperatures today will approach record values at some locations
again. The following are the records for May 19.

Date    Toledo    Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
05-19   92(1996)  88(1964)   88(1998)    91(1911)   89(1934)    90(1996)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for LEZ142>144.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan