Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

269
FXUS61 KCLE 140007
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
807 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of a
cold front on Sunday. Some storms may be strong to severe,
mainly along and east of the I-71 corridor.

2) A stronger low pressure system is expected to develop and
move east through the Great Lakes Wednesday night into
Thursday. Some stronger storms are possible, especially
Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will return later tonight into
Sunday as a compact shortwave traverses the axis of a broad
upper-level trough rotating near southern Hudson Bay. Some
uncertainty exists on the overall coverage of strong to severe
storms with lingering overnight scattered convection and cloud
cover expected to arrive east into the area Sunday morning. The
current thinking is that two rounds of showers and storms are
expected on Sunday with strong to damaging wind gusts being the
primary severe hazard, given generally straight and long
hodographs.

The first round of showers and storms will likely initiate off
of the remnant overnight convection, generally east of the I-77
corridor from around Noon to 3 PM and should carry the higher
strong to severe storm chances. The second round appears to
initiate along the advancing cold front, generally along and
east of the I-71 corridor between 1 to 6 PM. Although the
downstream environment won`t be as favorable with the second
round of storms along the cold front, could still see a few
isolated instances of stronger wind gusts given modest 700 mb
westerly flow of 35 to 40 knots. A lesser threat exists for
flash flooding, though anomalously- high PWATS and generally
skinny CAPE profiles will lead to heavy rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Continuing to monitor the potential for a highly-anomalous low
pressure system to develop and move east through the Great Lakes
late Wednesday into Thursday. Model guidance is beginning to
come into agreement for mid to upper-level trough placement and
strength, though specific surface features still remain
uncertain. Low-level moisture is forecast to quickly increase ahead
of the advancing surface low Wednesday night, with dew points
climbing into the 60s.

At this time, it appears the most favorable CAPE/shear overlap
(reflected by ENS probs of MUCAPE > 1000 J/jg) and the highest
potential for severe weather will reside just to the south and
southwest of the area, though will continue to monitor trends
for this potentially significant system. Do think the severe
potential on Thursday (currently highlighted by the SPC SWODY6),
is decreasing across our area, with the pace of the low
pressure system and associated outflow boundaries appearing to
favor higher severe weather chances further south and east of
the area.

In addition to the threat of strong to severe storms, we may
also have to contend with the strong associated wind field of
this system, with currently low to medium probs (20 to 40%) for
wind gusts to exceed 45 mph Wednesday night into Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR will prevail through the overnight, but showers and
associated lowering of cigs will begin to spread in from west to
east after sunrise Sunday morning. This will eventually lead to
MVFR in all areas by mid morning or early afternoon as the
showers expand in coverage. Embedded thunderstorms are expected
to develop in north central and NE Ohio during the mid to late
morning then gradually move into NW PA during the afternoon, so
have the greatest coverage of TSRA at KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI
from mid morning through mid afternoon. These areas will also
see periods of IFR during the afternoon. Drier air and improving
cigs/vis will gradually work in from west to east Sunday
evening.

SW winds will decrease to 5-15 knots tonight before gradually
turning NW and increasing to 15-25 knots as a strong cold front
drops across the region late Sunday morning through the
afternoon.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are
forecast Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds 6 to 12 knots are expected through today with
winds increasing by a few knots overnight into early Sunday. A
cold front will cross the lake on Sunday, allowing winds to
shift to the northwest. A period of winds to 15 to 20 knots is
likely in the western basin of Lake Erie Sunday
afternoon/evening, but confidence in Small Craft Advisory
conditions occurring is low at this point. Headlines may be
needed if winds trend a bit higher.

From there, Small Craft Advisories/Beach Hazards Statements may
be needed as southwest flow deepens ahead of an approaching
strong cold front Wednesday. NBM guidance suggests that winds
could reach or exceed 30 knots on Thursday so will need to
continue to monitor forecast trends in the upcoming days.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Jaszka