Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

465
FXUS61 KCLE 262349
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
749 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
We are still expecting temperatures to warm up and feel more
like Spring on Monday ahead of a cold front. The next round of
soaking rainfall for the area will arrive Monday night with
showers and isolated thunder. Forecast confidence is increasing
for a much cooler weather pattern to develop over the Great
Lakes region for the end of this week through next weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A nice warm up in temperatures will arrive on Monday before
a cold front moves in Monday night into early Tuesday with
widespread showers and isolated thunder possible.

2) A much cooler weather pattern will likely develop over the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region towards the end of this
weekend and continue through next weekend. There may be the
potential for frost and temperatures dropping down to freezing
for a few nights late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The low stratus cloud deck is starting to slowly erode away this
mid-afternoon. A northeast flow off of Lake Erie today has been
helping with prolonging the low clouds over much of northern
Ohio. Skies have cleared out on the edges of our CWA in NWPA and
far NWOH. The expectation for the rest of the afternoon is for
the clouds to continue to scattered out with most areas seeing
some sunshine by early evening before sunset. A surface high
pressure over central Quebec Canada is building down into our
area this afternoon and tonight. Skies will be mostly clear to
partly cloudy tonight with overnight low temps in the 40s
areawide.

Southerly flow will increase tomorrow in response to the high
pressure system exiting the region and a low pressure system
that will track through the Upper Midwest into the western
Great Lakes. Skies will be mostly sunny Monday but high level
clouds will increase by Monday evening from the west. High
temperatures will warm up nicely in the middle to upper 70s
Monday afternoon. A cold front will approach from the west
Monday night with showers likely and isolated thunder possible.
At this time, we are expecting the severe weather threat to
stay west of our area Monday night. The thermodynamics looks
weak over out area as the cold front moves in late Monday night.
We will likely see numerous showers and some general thunder
possible overnight Monday into early Tuesday. The actual cold
front slows down somewhat and will move through the area during
the late morning or midday on Tuesday. We will keep in chance
POPs on Tuesday for scattered showers. We will squeeze out one
more warm day with high temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s for
Tuesday. Another low pressure system will track across the Upper
Ohio Valley on Wednesday with more rain showers. Over the 2 day
period from Monday night through Wednesday evening, we are
expecting total rainfall amounts to average around 1 inch for
much of the area with some locations possibly receiving a little
over an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A big shift in the weather pattern will take shape for later
this week and bring much cooler weather through next weekend. A
large upper level trough will develop over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley starting Wednesday and linger through next weekend.
The overall forecast will have high temperatures in the 50s
Wednesday through the weekend with skies being cloudy than
clear due to the upper level trough overhead. Low temperatures
will start off the 40s by midweek and towards the end of the
week dropping down into the 30s areawide for several nights. We
may have a few nights with the potential of frost and some
freezing temperatures possible too. Due to the start of the
growing season, we may be looking at the need for frost and
freeze headlines later this week. There may be some rain showers
on Friday with another reinforcing cold front moving through
the Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this evening with mainly VFR to persist
through the TAF period. Only period of concern for non-VFR
conditions is towards the end of the TAF period across the I-75
corridor (TOL/FDY) with approaching rain showers, though
confidence is low on direct impacts. Additional rain/t-storms
may need to be included along the I-75 corridor in the next TAF
package after 0Z Tuesday.

Winds will gradually shift from the east to northeast this
evening, 5 to 7 knots, to the southeast by mid-Monday morning,
increasing to 10 to 12 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 22
knots. Will need to monitor wind trends towards the end of the
TAF period, and especially after 0Z Tuesday in the following TAF
package as some guidance is hinting at some stronger south to
southeast winds with the decaying convection.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms Monday
night into Tuesday. Non-VFR likely again in showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure ridge exits slowly E`ward from the Lake Erie
region through Monday. Waves of 3 feet or less are expected as
winds around 5 to 15 knots veer gradually from NE`erly to
SE`erly. Note: patchy fog over the western and central basins is
expected to dissipate by early evening as drier air overspreads
the lake generally from the northeast.

During Monday night through Tuesday night, a low should wobble
NNE`ward from the Upper Mississippi Valley to Hudson Bay and
deepen. A warm front should sweep NE`ward across Lake Erie
Monday night through Tuesday morning and cause winds as strong
as about 15 to 25 knots to veer from SE`erly to S`erly to
SW`erly. Waves should build to as large as 4 to 8 feet and will
trend largest in open U.S. waters and ON waters based on
forecast fetch. A Small Craft Advisory, primarily for wind, will
likely be needed. The low`s trailing cold front should sweep
E`ward across Lake Erie late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
night and cause S`erly to SW`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to
veer to N`erly to NE`erly and ease steadily to around 5 to 15
knots by daybreak Wednesday morning. Accordingly, waves are
expected to subside steadily to 3 feet or less by daybreak.

Behind the cold front, a trough should linger over Lake Erie on
Wednesday as a secondary low along the front tracks NE`ward,
south through east of the lake, and deepens somewhat. NE`erly
winds around 5 to 15 knots should back toward NW`erly and may
flirt with 20 knots at times, especially during the PM hours.
Waves should remain mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional 4
footers are possible. During Wednesday night through Friday, a
ridge should build from the north-central United States and
vicinity. Winds should vary between W`erly and N`erly and mainly
be in the 5 to 15 knot range. However, winds may flirt with 20
knots at times Wednesday night. Waves of mainly 3 feet or less
are expected, but occasional 4 footers are possible Wednesday
night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Jaszka