Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

995
FXUS61 KCLE 231521
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1121 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Morning update included issuing a Wind Advisory for Erie County,
Pennsylvania. A couple wind gusts to 48 mph have already
occurred this morning. Expecting wind gusts to drop off for a
couple hours as rain moves through with gusts to 50 mph
returning again late this afternoon into this evening as a break
in showers returns. Also trended temperatures down considerably
in NW Ohio where they area expected to remain NW of the surface
low. Timing of showers and thunderstorms have been updated.
Concerns remain for a few stronger storms moving north out of
Central Ohio this afternoon to exhibit rotation and need to be
monitored. Low level wind profiles show favorable veering of
winds with height and the risk for a tornado will increase in
the 2-7 PM time frame if temperatures approach 70 degrees and
provide the needed instability.

There are a couple minor changes and noteworthy forecast
adjustments to address with this morning update. There may be a
low potential for an isolated strong storm or two to develop
this afternoon across northern Ohio. The other forecast change
is regarding drier weather is now expected for Memorial Day on
Monday. The rest of the forecast from the previous update has
not changed in an impactful way.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Two rounds of showers and isolated thunder is expected
today through Sunday evening. Much of the area will see a soaker
this weekend with moderate to locally heavy rainfall of 1.0 to
1.5 inches.

2.) A warmer and drier weather pattern will begin to take shape
over the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley starting Monday. This
summer-like weather will continue for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The first of two weather systems that will impact our Memorial
Day Weekend has arrive early this morning with widespread rain
showers and breezy conditions. A weak low pressure system is
currently tracking northeastward across the Upper Ohio Valley
this morning. This weather system has a rather high tropical moisture
content in the atmosphere to work with as it moves through today
and evening. The forecast hasn`t changed much from the previous
updates. We are expected the highest POPs to be this morning and
areawide coverage. The rain showers and possible isolated
thunder will become most scattered in nature by late morning or
midday but POPs will remain in the moderate to higher range.
The track of this surface low will lift across the western basin
of Lake Erie this afternoon. A rather stout southeasterly low
level flow and breezy conditions will continue east of this low
pressure for much of today over NEOH and NWPA. There will be
several hours later today of possibly elevated gusty winds with
a downsloping effect across the immediate lakeshore zones of
NEOH and especially Erie County PA. Wind gusts may be up to 50
mph possible late today into early this evening. Rainfall
amounts of 1.0 to 1.5 inches are expected areawide today through
Sunday evening. Some minor water level rises may be possible on
area streams and drainage basins due to the heavier rainfall
this weekend.

There is one forecast adjustment and note worthy update to
convey in regards to this afternoon. There is a low potential
for an isolated strong or two that could develop ahead a weak
surface trough/boundary over north central and northeast Ohio.
As the surface low lifts northeast into southern Ontario late
today, it does appear that some scattered low top convection
that will develop along a trailing weak surface trough. This
atmospheric setup later today is similar to a very tropical
environment with just enough 0-6KM shear around 30 knots and
storm relative helicity values up to 150 m2/s2. With that said,
SPC has mentioned a very low 2 percent probability for an
isolated brief tornado risk in their latest outlook today. It
will be something that we will monitor as the potential is very
low but not zero given this setup this afternoon. The timing of
the scattered convection to keep an eye on will be between 12 pm
and 6 pm, generally moving across northern Ohio from west to
east.

Today`s storm system will move out later this evening with rain
chances decreasing areawide overnight. There will be a lull in
POPs late tonight through Sunday morning or midday. The next
weak surface trough will move in from west to east later on
Sunday into the evening bringing a second round of showers and
isolated thunder. This system will be more progressive and not
as widespread with coverage of showers. Rainfall amounts will be
light around a quarter of an inch or less for most locations.
That 2nd weather system will move out of the area late SUnday
night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
There is some better news in regards to a forecast change on
Monday and this Memorial Day. The forecast is looking nicer and
drier with fair weather expected for outdoor activities. High
pressure will build in over the region starting Monday. Skies
will eventually clear out from west to east on Monday becoming
partly cloudy along with warmer temperatures. Monday`s
afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s areawide.
The model guidance still in fair to good agreement that an Omega
block like weather pattern will develop over the north central
U.S. and build into the Great Lakes region through much of
next week. This pattern should favor much warmer temperatures
and mostly drier forecast. High temperatures will climb into the
lower and middle 80s for several days by the middle of the week.
Some scattered diurnal driven showers and convection may sneak
back into the forecast late next week or weekend. But overall,
it will start to feel and look more like summer next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
IFR to low MVFR ceilings are observed across the region as rain
showers move north. The showers will persists through the
morning with a break midday today that will help improve
ceilings up to MVFR for most sites. There will be a chance for
a thunderstorm across the southeastern terminals of KCAK and
KYNG this afternoon as a cold front pushes through the region.
By early Sunday morning, there is guidance showing LIFR
conditions across much of central into northern Ohio, though
have opted to use a low IFR ceilings for this TAF issuance.

Winds across the region are out of the southeast at 10-15 knots
and gusting to 20-25, with the higher gusts across the eastern
terminals. Winds for the western terminals will be lighter as
they will be underneath the surface low as it moves north. Those
will shift to be out of the south- southwest as it pass this
afternoon. Elsewhere, gusty winds are expected to continue
through the TAF period and shift to be more out of the south by
this afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected late Sunday into early Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory will continue for the western half of the
lake until 10AM this morning as the low pressure system tracks
across that portion and winds begin to subside. An additional
Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the eastern half of the
lake until 4AM Sunday as southerly winds will downslope creating
winds of 20-25 knots. With offshore flow, waves in the nearshore
will be 2-4 feet and 3-6 feet in the open waters. High pressure
will build into the region throughout the day Sunday and winds
and waves will begin to subside as a response. Expect light and
variable winds with waves 1 foot or less through mid week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10/77
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23/26