Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

155
FXUS61 KCLE 211748
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1248 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in accumulating lake-enhanced snowfall late this
weekend through Monday is increasing. Have increase QPF and
resulting snowfall totals. The highest snowfall totals are
likely across the snowbelt regions of NE OH and NW PA, although
there remains uncertainty in the exact placement of the highest
snowfall totals and resulting impacts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near to below normal temperatures and accumulating snow
return this weekend into early next week.

2) Warmer temperatures likely arrive for mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Light lake-enhanced snow showers may continue across NW PA
through early morning, but largely anticipate a downward trend
in precipitation over the next several hours.

Snow chances increase overnight tonight as an upper low moves
east into the local area. Snow should be relatively scattered
through early Sunday morning with higher snow chances arriving
with the upper trough axis starting at about 12Z Sunday morning.
Widespread snow is likely across the entire area Sunday morning
into Sunday afternoon with snowfall totals of 1 to 2 inches
likely. Persistent upper troughing and northwest flow will
result in continued lake-enhanced snow showers across the area
through at least Monday afternoon, including locations across
north-central Ohio downwind from upstream Great Lakes and the
typical snowbelt areas of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania Sunday evening. High temperatures will be near
normal on Sunday with below normal temperatures likely for
Monday and Tuesday.

There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty in the placement of
snow bands and resulting snow accumulations, but as of now it
appears that the highest snow accumulations of up to 5 to 7
inches between Sunday morning and Monday night will occur in the
higher terrain of the primary snowbelt region of NE OH/NW PA.
Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for late Sunday into
Monday, but there is some potential for isolated warning amounts
in areas where bands of heavier snow persist. Possible impacts
include slick travel and reduced visibility in periods of
moderate snowfall. Impacts should be mitigated by the prolonged
nature of lake effect snow, which will occur over a 24 to 30
hour period. Snow showers are expected to dwindle on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
While there`s still uncertainty in the upper level pattern for
mid to late week, temperatures will likely trend closer to
normal starting Wednesday with above normal temps possible by
next weekend. Showers may move across the CWA Wednesday and
Thursday, however there`s still too much uncertainty in the
placement of any synoptic features to determine any potential
impacts. Guidance generally favors dry weather for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
MVFR ceilings exist across the TAF sites this afternoon. A combination
of MVFR and IFR vsbys will begin late tonight into Sunday morning
as an area of light snow develops and moves west to east across
the area. IFR vsbys will most likely be found along and west of
the I-77 corridor, with scattered snow showers favored elsewhere.

Winds are generally favoring a west direction this afternoon, 7
to 10 knots. Winds will primarily retain a west to west-
northwest direction through the TAF period, increasing closer to
10 to 12 knots by early Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...Periodic snow with non-VFR expected Sunday evening through
Tuesday night. Non-VFR likely on Wednesday in snow changing to
rain/snow with a clipper system. Non-VFR may return again on
Thursday with another system.

&&

.MARINE...
Weakening low pressure over Lake Huron will devolve into a
trough today. Southwest winds with this feature will diminish
during the day from 15 to 20 kts of flow to 10 kts. The trough
will remain over the area on Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, a
strong low pressure system will move up the East Coast. This
stronger system will enhance the pressure gradient across the
region, while shifting winds to the northwest. Winds will ramp
up with the strengthening gradient to 15 to 20 kts on Sunday and
20 to 25 kts on Monday. This stronger northwest flow will
compress ice along the Lake Erie Shoreline early next week.

A ridge of high pressure will build into the region on Tuesday
and winds will back to the southwest and weaken to 10 kts. A low
pressure system will target the Great Lakes region on Wednesday
into Thursday and southwest winds will increase over the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Sefcovic