Lancaster, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

673
FXUS61 KILN 112323
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
723 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will lead to dry conditions and moderating temperatures
through the weekend. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will
return on Monday ahead of an approaching frontal system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A solid stratocumulus deck remains in place across much of Ohio and
northern Kentucky this afternoon, although some partial
clearing/more diurnal type clouds have developed across eastern
Indiana. Expect this decreasing cloud trend to gradually work its
way east this evening as we start to lose some of the daytime
heating and then into the overnight hours as surface high pressure
builds in from the west. With a slackening pressure gradient, winds
should also decrease as we head into tonight. This will lead to cool
temperatures overnight with lows dropping into the upper 20s to
lower 30s, with some cooler readings possible in areas that are able
to completely decouple.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will shift east across the area Saturday into
Saturday night. Suppose a few diurnal cu will possible during the day
on Saturday, but overall expect mostly sunny skies. Temperatures
will begin to moderate with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Skies will be Mostly clear heading into Saturday night, but some
high clouds may begin to spread in from the west late in developing
southerly flow. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s with some areas
of frost possible once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridging across the region at the beginning of the period will move
off to the east. A short wave and associated surface low will track
east across the northern Great Lakes on Monday. The trailing cold
front will move through the forecast area. It will warm into the
upper 60s to lower 70s ahead of the front, but there is some
question about the amount instability that may be able to develop
and whether that will even be surface based. There will be showers
and possibly some thunderstorms as the front moves through Monday
afternoon and evening.

A secondary short wave will drop across the area on Tuesday. This
combined with continuing weak cold air advection will lead to some
showers as well as wind gusts around 30 mph. High pressure will
build in Wednesday but below normal temperatures will continue.

There is a fair amount of uncertainty heading into the latter part
of the week. Some model runs are show a deepening closed low
progressing into the Great Lakes with a cold front crossing the
area. Then there is another camp that has energy splitting with some
of that diving into a southwest US closed low and the remaining
northern stream energy being weaker and slower to move east. As a
result, the cold front may only be approaching the area at the end
of the period. These two diverse solutions have substantial
differences in sensible weather. Have used a broad brush with PoPs
and temperatures until it becomes clearer which solution is more
likely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A solid borderline VFR/MVFR deck remains in place across much of the
area, although the deck is beginning to shrivel as it drifts to the
S. The back edge of the clouds should push through the local sites
between about 02z-04z from N to S, respectively, leading to a
scattering out and eventually a clearing by 06z. SKC is then expected
past by/06z through about 15z before some diurnally-enhanced
cu/stratocu sprouts once again past 15z through the afternoon. This
is expected to be fairly widespread, especially for ern sites, where
VFR CIGs are expected for the afternoon into early evening. However,
as sfc high pressure drifts into the region toward the end of the
period, a scattering/clearing trend will once again evolve area-wide
by early evening.

N/NW winds on the order of 7-9kts will subside to 5kts or less by 03z
before returning to 7-9kts past 15z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for
     OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for
     KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for
     INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC