Lakewood, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

214
FXUS61 KCLE 040634
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
134 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure quickly glides west to east south of the area
through this evening. Deepening low pressure glides east across
Ontario while extending a strong cold front across the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. Lingering troughing remains in
place over Lake Erie on Thursday before high pressure builds
back in by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9:30 PM Update...

Removed PoPs from Erie County, PA the rest of the evening as the
last of the lake-effect snow has pushed offshore. This will
yield dry conditions areawide overnight. Light radar returns
moving into western Ohio is virga due to mid-level warm air
advection and moist isentropic ascent ahead of the approaching
clipper. Low-level dry air will hold firm through the night, so
only expect a thickening cloud deck.

6:30 PM Update...

The persistent, 5 day long lake-effect snow event is finally
over! The final bands over Erie County, PA are rapidly pushing
northward in response to strengthening warm air advection and
southwesterly flow. This will send the last of the snow showers
over northeastern Erie County out over the lake by 03Z with just
an additional 1-2 inches between now and then. After
coordination with BUF, will expire the warnings on schedule at
00Z. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track through this
evening.

Original Discussion...

Lake effect snow showers associated with a Lake Huron connection
will gradually move north and exit the local area this evening as
low level ridging builds over the region and winds favor a
southwesterly component. Have kept the Lake Effect Snow Warning for
Erie and Crawford Counties in Pennsylvania in place through 7 PM
tonight. We`ll have a brief window of dry weather as the low level
ridge axis remains overhead before a deepening low pressure system
moving across Ontario impacts the region. We`ll remain fairly cloudy
tonight with overnight low temperatures dropping to the low to mid
20s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A very active short term period in store as a multi-hazard winter
weather system and Arctic front will impact the area Wednesday
evening into the end of the week. Nearly all hazards are on the
table with this system including additional snowfall, strong winds,
blowing snow, snow squalls, and cold temperatures. A Winter Storm
Watch is in effect from late Wednesday afternoon through early
Friday morning for Cuyahoga, Summit, Lake, Geauga, Portage,
Ashtabula, Trumbull Counties in Ohio and Erie and Crawford Counties
in Pennsylvania.

Ahead of the front, a strong low level jet characterized by 850mb
winds between 55 and 65 knots moves overhead the region. Strong
southerly to southwesterly surface winds are expected to increase to
25-30 MPH with gusts to 40+ MPH by Wednesday afternoon. Highest wind
speeds and gusts will likely occur along and west of I-71 where the
better jet support lies and along the Lake Erie lakeshore given the
southerly wind component favorable for downsloping. Fairly moist
airmass in addition to the upper jet ahead of the cold front will
support widespread rain and snow showers across the local area
beginning Wednesday afternoon. As the Arctic front approaches the
local area by Wednesday night, expect for conditions to deteriorate
further. Rapidly dropping temperatures, the existing snowpack, new
snowfall, and strong winds in excess of 35 MPH will likely lead to
some travel impacts for the Thursday morning commute either in the
way of snow squalls and/or blowing snow.

By Thursday, the Arctic front will have crossed the region with mean
layer flow turning northwesterly behind the front. 850 mb
temperatures quickly plummet to the -12C to -18C range by Thursday.
Cooler surface temperatures coupled with strong northwesterly winds
will allow for a window of Wind Chill temperatures to drop into the
single digits during the early morning hours on Thursday and Friday.

Outside of the Winter Storm Watch, have roughly 1-3 inches of
snowfall with the majority of it falling late Wednesday into the day
Thursday. The system turns more lake effect in nature behind the
Arctic front. The aforementioned cool 850 mb temperatures in
addition to a relatively warm Lake Erie will result in another round
of efficient lake effect snowfall across the traditional Snowbelt.
The current storm total snowfall for Snowbelt counties ranges
anywhere between 6-8 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of
12 inches possible where snow bands persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect snow is likely to continue into the day Friday with
an additional 1 or 2 inches of snow in the primary snowbelt in
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania with locally higher
amounts in higher terrain areas of Northwest Pennsylvania. High
pressure builds in to the south so any lake effect snow bands
that have persisted during the day Friday should shift northward
to mainly offshore Lake Erie by late Friday night into Saturday.

By Sunday high pressure shifts eastward to off the Atlantic
coast. Temperatures warm up on Sunday on the backside of the
departing high pressure with high temperatures into the 40s.
Broad upper-level trough and surface low approaches from the
west with periods of rain expected Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures will continue to rise, with highs near 50 on
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
The airspace is in a reprieve of non-VFR at the moment with high
pressure to the south of the area. With moisture entering from
the southwest, some MVFR is located across Indiana and is
spreading into Northwest Ohio. Expect this cloud deck to
continue across the airspace and allow for some MVFR by late
morning for most terminals. There could be a brief break in the
MVFR as this deck has a back edge before a cold front. However,
a strengthening low pressure system will enter the region today
and extend a cold front across the area. Enough lift ahead of
the main front may allow for some scattered rain and/or snow
showers and ceilings with these would likely be MVFR. The Arctic
cold front will cross toward the end of the TAF period and bring
a brief window with possible snow squalls. Have PROB30s for a
one or two hour window for low visibility snow, low ceilings,
and increased winds as this feature moves through the airspace.
Behind the front, snow showers will overtake the region with the
highest impact snow in NE OH and NW PA, where trends to IFR will
take place. Winds through the period will be problematic. Winds
are already increasing out of the southwest with gusts in the 20
to 25 kt range. Wind gusts will be in the 30 to 35 kt range this
afternoon and then abruptly shift to the west with the cold
front passage this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in snow through early Friday with the
most pessimistic conditions across NE Ohio and NW PA. Non-VFR
possible in NE OH and NW PA with lingering snow showers
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest flow will be on the rise in the evening into tonight,
peaking during the day Wednesday. Offshore flow will mean
nearshore waters will be around 20-30 knots with speeds closer
to 35 knots in the open waters. A cold front will move east
across Lake Erie Wednesday night, with flow quickly becoming
west Wednesday night and then northwest by Thursday morning,
with gale force winds expected with and behind the cold front
through Thursday. A gale warning will be in effect Wednesday
evening through early Thursday afternoon west of the islands and
the Wednesday morning through Thursday evening east of the
islands. A low water advisory may also be needed for the western
basin of Lake Erie at various points Wednesday evening through
Thursday afternoon. A small craft advisory is in effect until
the start of the gale warning starts and will likely be needed
again through the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through late Thursday
     night for OHZ011>014-021>023-089.
PA...Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through late Thursday
     night for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ142-
     143.
     Low Water Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ142-143-162-
     163.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     LEZ142-143-162-163.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     LEZ144>149.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Thursday for
     LEZ144>149-164>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Iverson
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Saunders