Grove City, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

628
FXUS61 KILN 151831
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
231 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Wednesday arrives dry and sunny, with a subtle warm up. Rain,
thunderstorms, and breezy conditions return to the forecast for the
end of the work week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The mid level trough that has been driving our weather will be moving
off to the east at the start of the period and upper level ridging
will be moving in. At the surface, this (combined with nighttime
decoupling) results in a subtle decrease in wind speeds as we head
into the overnight hours.

Large scale subsidence allows for decreasing clouds throughout the
nighttime hours and this will (eventually) promote effective
radiational cooling. Temperatures fall to the mid 30s.

There is some concern for frost formation, particularly near the
Tri-State/ OH IN border, but given that winds never go completely
calm, clouds take a bit to clear out, and Td depressions remain
around 5-6 degrees... feel that the threat for frost is marginal and
therefore, have just splotchy patches in the grids but nothing
widespread. For now, will stick with a Special Weather Statement
regarding frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Large scale ridging moves over the region on Wednesday coupled with
surface high pressure. Clouds clear out, allowing for mostly sunny
skies and light northwesterly flow. High temperatures reach the mid
to upper 50s.

To our west, a shortwave moving over the Rockies will begin to
deepen and organize on the lee side of the mountains by Wednesday
evening, with the surface feature beginning to lift a warm front
northward into the Ohio Valley.
Consequentially, the high pressure is shunted east and will be
briefly located right over the CWA, resulting in calm to nearly calm
winds during Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning. High clouds
begin to build in from the west, so we`ll have a bit of a temperature
gradient across the region with overnight lows in the far
west/southwest in the upper 30s/low 40s while lows in central Ohio
only reach the mid 30s. The quiet conditions combined with cold
temperatures will likely result frost formation. Take steps early to
protect sensitive vegetation.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

While the start of the long term is expected to be dry, an active
weather pattern takes shape for the long term time period.
Precipitation chances Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon
will primarily be limited to western portions of the region and
northern portions of region across parts of Indiana and north of
Interstate 70 in Ohio. Southerly flow will allow for temperatures in
the 60s on Thursday and 70s on Friday. Winds will be gusty on Friday
with wind gusts to 40 mph. Will add wind mention to HWO.

Friday night through the remainder of the long term there will be
the potential for several waves of precipitation across the region.
Cannot rule out the potential for severe weather Friday night as
storms move into the region.  The primary focus for this would be
northwest of Interstate 71.  Will hold off on mentioning in the HWO
for now, however will continue to evaluate the need for potential
future communication on the severe threat. There is another
potential for severe weather Saturday afternoon as well. Since there
are multiple waves of showers and storms expected there is also a
potential flooding threat as well.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain showers are moving through the region at the start of the TAF
period, accompanied by small hail thanks to some very cold
temperatures aloft and weak elevated instability. Showers move off to
the east by 22Z and the region remains dry through the remainder of
the TAF period.

Cloud deck is low end VFR with some high end MVFR patches moving
through. Did not include any MVFR in the TAFs due to low spatial and
temporal resolution. Clouds lift and scatter out by Wednesday
morning leaving clear skies behind for Wednesday.

Breezy conditions stick around through the rest of the day, with
west/northwesterly gusts up to 40 knots possible, especially along
and north of I-70 (KDAY, KCMH, KLCK). No true LLWS is present, but
we`re getting reports of turbulence and this is likely due to
mechanical turbulence.

Winds will decrease this evening after sunset as the parent system
moves off to the east and high pressure moves in. Westerly winds
around 10 knots persist through the overnight with some patchy frost
possible in low lying/sheltered spots.


OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible along with a chance of
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA