Elyria, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

757
FXUS61 KCLE 121909
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
309 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes out of the Great Lakes and across the area
Wednesday afternoon and evening. High pressure builds in on
Thursday and persists through Saturday. The next cold front
pushes towards the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The main forecast concern through tonight will be potential for
some showers and thunderstorms in a warm/humid pre-frontal
airmass. A cold front will approach from the northwest
overnight, with a weak shortwave expected to move into the area
from the west overnight tonight.

Scattered convection has developed along a lake breeze boundary
from Lake/Geauga Counties points northeast, with some towering
cumulus extending southwest along/just west of the I-71
corridor into the Central Highlands. Convection will likely
continue along the lake breeze through early this evening, and
will likely see at least a few attempts at convection towards
the Central Highlands too. Will likely see scattered convection
that`s currently (3 PM) ongoing on the nose of higher theta-e
air from western OH into IN push northeast towards Northwest and
Central OH this evening. Am expecting a window near and after
sunset later this evening where convection attempts to diminish
with the loss of heating. However, as a shortwave moves in from
the west overnight and into the pre-dawn Wednesday an increase
in coverage is likely due to lift ahead of the shortwave. This
increased shower/thunder coverage (expecting at least scattered
activity) will spread east-northeast across the area towards
sunrise Wednesday, leading to POPs increasing late tonight.

Any localized back-building convection through this evening may
lead to locally heavy rain, as seen by a very localized area of
3-4" of rain falling across north-central Ashtabula County with
lake breeze storms this afternoon. Otherwise, parts of Northwest
OH remain outlooked for a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for
strong wind gusts if any organized convection spreads in from
the west/southwest this evening (low confidence on any severe).

It will remain on the warm and humid side tonight, with
overnight lows generally in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Muggy and unsettled weather continues on Wednesday as the cold
front sags southeast across the area through the evening hours.
The greatest potential for showers/storms will be in the morning
across Northeast OH and Northwest PA in association with a weak
shortwave, and then in the afternoon and early evening along and
ahead of the advancing cold front in conjunction with peak
heating. The risk for severe weather with any thunderstorms on
Wednesday is minimal, though locally heavy rainfall will remain
possible given PWAT values of 1.70-1.90"...this risk would be
realized if any localized training or back-building occurs.

The overall evolution of POPs/rain chances is a little bit
uncertain for Wednesday. The greatest large-scale forcing for
ascent will likely be focused across Northeast OH and Northwest
PA during the morning/midday hours ahead of the weak shortwave,
with weak subsidence behind the shortwave across our area
through the afternoon. However, with a cold front sagging in at
peak heating, some increase in showers/storms will still likely
take place during the afternoon hours. Have a window of likely
to categorical (60-80%) POPs during the morning hours along and
east of the I-71 corridor along and ahead of the weak shortwave,
in line with the latest NBM guidance. Have another window of
higher POPs during the afternoon-early evening along and ahead
of the cold front, though have POPs peaking at 40-60% in this
window to reflect the overall lack of forcing and likely
somewhat disorganized nature of convection per recent hi-res
models (this is generally 10-30% lower than NBM guidance).
Chance (30-50%) POPs linger into Wednesday evening but decrease
from northwest to southeast into the night behind the front.

Highs Wednesday will reach the low to mid 80s, though it will
still be muggy with dew points near/above 70 ahead of the front.
Lows Wednesday night will generally dip into the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure will bring slightly cooler and quiet weather
to end the week. We trend warmer and more humid this weekend as
high pressure slides to the east, setting up return flow. A cold
front approaches on Sunday and crosses Sunday or Monday. A brief
window of high pressure is hinted at later Monday into Tuesday,
though progression of the front is uncertain that far out.

Overall, have a dry forecast from Thursday through Saturday
night for most of the area. Low POPs (20-30%) linger across our
southern counties on Thursday, as enough moisture may still be
lingering for a few showers/storms to pop with daytime heating.
POPs return starting Sunday as the cold front approaches. Given
uncertainty regarding how far south the front will push early
next week low POPs linger for Monday and Tuesday, especially
farther south across the area.

Temperatures will cool to closer to normal for Thursday and
Friday and surge back above normal this weekend. A modest
cooling trend is forecast for Monday and Tuesday, assuming we do
see the cold front push through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Primarily VFR conditions are expected to persist through the
TAF window with two windows for showers and thunderstorms that
may reduce cigs/vis to MVFR at times. The first window will be
diurnally driven showers and storms that have begun to develop
along a lake breeze this afternoon. Expect for these
showers/storms to continue through late this afternoon/early
evening (~22Z). Highest confidence in TSRA impacting a terminal
will be at KERI where a TEMPO group for TS impacts is in place
from 18-22Z.

The next window will be overnight tonight as a cold front
approaches the local area from the west. Some uncertainty with
the coverage of showers but went ahead and added -SHRA around
05Z at western TAF sites (KTOL/KFDY) before showers move east
towards KERI around 09Z. Kept out any TS mention for now given
lower confidence, but future TAF packages/amendments may be
needed to introduce TS.

Generally southerly to southwesterly winds 5-10 knots across
inland terminals. Meanwhile, a lake breeze has allowed for
westerly to northwesterly winds 8-10 knots to develop a KCLE and
KERI. Winds turn light and variable after 00Z tonight before
turning generally westerly Wednesday morning.

Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
non-VFR conditions are forecast through Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet marine conditions will continue through this
week as southerly to southwesterly winds 5-10 knots persist over
the lake. Winds will become northerly at 8-12 knots behind the
cold front Wednesday night/early Thursday. High pressure builds
over the lake late this week which will allow for winds to
return light and variable. Lake breezes will likely occur again
on Friday and Saturday afternoon. There will be favorable
conditions for waterspouts as the cold front approaches the lake
from the west tonight and Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13