Dayton, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

280
FXUS61 KILN 141908
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
308 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms are possible this evening as an upper level
trough sweeps east of the area. Ridging will then bring warmer
temperatures late this week. A series of disturbances will bring the
potential for thunderstorms both Thursday night and Friday evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
An upper level trough along with deep moisture will provide the
impetus for scattered showers and storms this evening. The convection
will be slowest to dissipate in the east as the trough begins to exit
into the northeast CONUS. Meanwhile, weak lift associated with
elevated warm air advection could bring an additional round of
showers and storms late tonight across northern Kentucky potentially
into southwest Ohio. Based on the elevated nature of the instability,
suppose a few could include hail. Lows tonight will bottom out around
60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The elevated warm air advection caused by building heights will leave
the Ohio Valley under a strong cap. This should suppress convection
and result in mostly sunny skies and very warm mid-May temperatures.

Meanwhile, the first in a series of northern stream shortwaves will
begin to flatten the ridge Thursday night. This will weaken the cap
and allow for showers and storms to develop along and ahead of a
surface warm front. Based on increasing H5 flow, can`t rule out a
severe storm or two... particularly across our western CWA.
Temperatures will only fall off into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Appears that the area will be in a bit of a lull to start the
period. There may be a weak boundary extending across the region
left over from overnight convection. This will result in a modest
moisture gradient which will then be reflected in the resultant
instability which will become quite substantial through the day.
There is some potential for storms to develop within the forecast
area on Friday afternoon, but the greater concern will be for a
complex of storms developing west of the area and moving in during
the evening. With plenty of instability and shear, some of these
storms may be severe with all hazards possible. In addition, there
may be some heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. This
should diminish in intensity later in the night as it continues
eastward.

Closed low will move across the Great Lakes on Saturday with a short
wave rounding the base of this low. This will push a cold front
through the area. There is some potential for a few showers or
storms to develop ahead of this front, mainly in central Ohio.

Ridging at the surface and aloft will build in for Sunday and Monday
bringing a return of dry conditions. There appears to be a trend
towards drier weather even into Tuesday with the next robust system
moving more north than east through the center part of the country.
But eventually this will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms
into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Warm and somewhat humid conditions will occur until the cold front
moves through on Saturday. Temperatures will fall back closer to
normal Sunday into Tuesday with only a minor warming trend into
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers will slowly pivot to the northeast from the Cincinnati area
toward Columbus through the afternoon. Coincident with this,
scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in areas not seeing
the showers. Main focus for coverage of the storms will be for the
Columbus terminals... however thunder is possible at all sites. Due
to rainfall rates, visibility restrictions are likely with the
storms.

Most airports will see a break from storms tonight. However, a band
of warm air advection showers and storms appear to be trending in the
latest high-resolution guidance for CVG and LUK. Since these storms
will be elevated, have kept valley fog in the forecast for LUK.

Fair, warm conditions are expected on Thursday as upper ridging
builds east across the middle Ohio River valley. This will lead to
favorable conditions once morning fog burns off.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible from Thursday night through
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...