Dayton, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

855
FXUS61 KILN 191758
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
158 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern will lead to occasional showers and
thunderstorms through Monday. Some of the storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall. Drier and warmer conditions will
develop through mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MCS progressing east across eastern Illinois and western Indiana
early this afternoon. This is in association with a mid level short
wave that will continue to move across the southern Great Lakes
region through this evening. This morning`s fog and stratus and now
debris clouds spreading in from the west from the convection has
helped to limit destabilization somewhat across our area so far this
afternoon, with a relative min in ML Capes currently across much of
Ohio. This will result in some uncertainty as to how well the
convection will hold together as it moves into our northern areas
through the rest of this afternoon.

Meanwhile, convection across southern Indiana will likely continue
to build east southeast along the instability gradient. Some of
this will likely affect our southern areas and especially the Tri-
State area later this afternoon into early evening. With PWs around
2 inches, torrential downpours/localized flooding can be expected
with the stronger storms, with the best chance for this (and any
damaging wind threat), most likely across southwest portions of our
area through early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
In west to northwest flow aloft, additional weak mid level short
waves will progress east southeast across our area Sunday into
Sunday night as a weak frontal boundary sags south across the Ohio
Valley. As we destabilize through the day, showers and thunderstorms
will once again become more widespread and then linger into the
evening hours before decreasing overnight. The highest pops look to
be across our southern areas, closer to the frontal boundary.
Locally heavy rain and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible
during the afternoon/early evening with the stronger storms. Highs
on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows Sunday night in
the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
By Monday morning, the cold front will continue to sag south, across
the CWA. Showers and storms are expected along this boundary, likely
remaining south of I-70. Weak cold air advection trickles into the
region and temperatures respond accordingly: highs along and north
of I-70 rise to the low 80s (overnight lows upper 50s), while temps
nearer to the Ohio River reach the mid 80s (overnight lows upper
60s). The area dries out overnight and mass subsidence results in
decreasing cloud cover.

Large scale ridging coupled with surface high pressure work into the
region Monday night into Tuesday. Tuesday looks mostly dry with
seasonable tempers in the mid 80s as the high sits over us. However,
as the surface high moves east and we get return southerly flow,
we`ll notice a substantial warm up and uptick in dew points as the
week progresses.

As such, heat indices on Wednesday are forecast to rise
into the 90s with overnight lows in the low 70s. Thursday/Friday
look to be the hottest day of the week, with heat indices
comfortably in the mid to upper 90s, with splotchy areas over 100F
in the river valleys. Overnight lows fall to the mid 70s. Right now,
we`re a bit far out in time, but some heat products may end up being
needed should this forecast stay on track.

Near the end of the week, the surface high truly departs the region
and the mid-level ridging breaks down, allowing for more zonal flow
and re-introducing shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Area of showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region from
the west through late afternoon and continue into this evening.
Isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms will then linger into
the overnight hours. Some MVFR to locally IFR stratus and fog will
once again develop late tonight and persist into Sunday morning. Low
clouds and fog will lift through late morning with VFR conditions
prevailing during the afternoon. A cold front moving in from the
northwest will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms
redeveloping as we head into Monday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are likely through Monday. MVFR ceilings are
possible Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JGL