Cincinnati, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

644
FXUS61 KILN 141728
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
128 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will move east of the area today, with some
showers and storms possible this afternoon. Warmer conditions are
expected for the end of the week, with occasional chances for storms
from Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Patchy low clouds and fog will continue to dissipate and lift this
morning, leaving mostly cloudy skies. A moist environment, along with
modest surface heating, will again spark scattered showers and a few
storms from midday into the late afternoon. Highest coverage today
will be across the east... or on the favorable east side of the upper
trough axis. Movement will be slow, so can`t rule out a few soakers
with isolated flooding possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A pronounced decrease in precipitation can be expected Wednesday
evening, as the diurnal cycle wanes, and forcing associated with the
upper trough moves further off to the east.

On Thursday, there will be a significant increase in deep-layer SSW
flow over the Ohio Valley, as an elevated mixed layer advects into
the area from off to the west. While instability will begin to build
as a result, a strong cap is very likely to keep things dry through
Thursday afternoon -- the forecast will just begin to bring some
low-end PoPs in by late in the day. Additional concerns for Thursday
night will be discussed in the Long Term AFD section below.

In a changing air mass, highs on Thursday are expected to get into
the lower 80s -- maybe mid 80s in some spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period features two severe threats within the first
two days, followed by lower thunderstorm chances and lower
temperatures into the weekend and early next week. Additional chances
for showers and thunderstorms are mentioned early next week as the
next system moves through the Plains and into the Midwest, but
guidance remains split on how the meridional pattern evolves. The
below discussion focuses on the two rounds of severe weather Thursday
night and Friday/Friday night.

Severe potential (Round 1): A shortwave trough and cold front move
into region late Thursday evening, progressing through during the
overnight hours. A very unstable air mass is in place across the Ohio
Valley, but it is capped by an inversion near 700 mb. This will make
it challenging for surface air to rise into the very steep mid-
level lapse rates that would allow for intense updrafts. A more
likely solution will be for thunderstorm development occurring
earlier in the evening across Illinois and into Indiana, advancing
eastward toward the late evening into northeast Indiana and northwest
Ohio. If a well-organized cold-pool can become established, this may
help to continue thunderstorm production into the local area toward
midnight, especially west-central and central Ohio. Therefore, the
highest PoPs are focused across the northern portions of the local
area (I-70 and north) closer to the better forcing in the lower Great
Lakes. Otherwise, to the south, isolated elevated thunderstorms are
expected through the overnight as the front moves through. Given the
steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear, any storm will have the
capability of producing large hail. The larger damaging wind threat
would likely be isolated to the areas where a more established cold-
pool is maintained.

SPC`s Day 2 SWO outlines the entire area in either a level 1
(Marginal) or level 2 (Slight) risk out of 5. If storms are able to
persist within the expected environment, the potential for severe
weather is present, but the overall coverage may ultimately end up
being underwhelming. As a result, future outlooks likely won`t change
much.

The thunderstorms likely diminish in spread throughout the overnight
into Friday morning...

Severe potential (Round 2): After the shortwave slides off to the
northeast, height falls fail to continue Friday morning, providing
some doubt into how many classic "cold front" effects are observed.
Instead, low-level moisture remains in place, with southwesterly flow
continuing throughout Friday morning. This southwesterly flow will
assist in moisture advection northward into the Ohio Valley, with
upper 60 to low 70s dewpoints established across the area by Friday
afternoon. With yet another EML providing steep mid-level lapse
rates, another pool of very high instability is expected across
portions of southern Indiana, southwest Ohio, and portions of
northern Kentucky. The shortwave will likely trigger convective
development west of the area, but also within the area as well given
the unstable air mass in place and less of a cap (inversion).

How exactly the convective patterns evolve throughout the afternoon
and evening remain in question. Regardless, confidence continues to
increase in a more organized event Friday evening/Friday night with
higher severe potential when compared to Round 1. If a more organized
feature can form, the environment will support all threats,
including a more widespread severe damaging straight line wind threat
and several QLCS tornadoes. Another concern for this event is that
much of the severe weather may occur after dark. For location,
confidence remains highest in the tri-state area, including southeast
Indiana, northern Kentucky, and southwest/southern Ohio. But given
the shortwave location, severe weather should be anticipated across
the entire area Friday night before activity moves out by Saturday
morning.

SPC`s Day 3 SWO continues to highlight the highest confidence areas
for severe weather with a level 2 (Slight) out of 5, however, this
particular event could see severe probabilities increase as
confidence grows in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers will slowly pivot to the northeast from the Cincinnati area
toward Columbus through the afternoon. Coincident with this,
scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in areas not seeing
the showers. Main focus for coverage of the storms will be for the
Columbus terminals... however thunder is possible at all sites. Due
to rainfall rates, visibility restrictions are likely with the
storms.

Most airports will see a break from storms tonight. However, a band
of warm air advection showers and storms appear to be trending in the
latest high-resolution guidance for CVG and LUK. Since these storms
will be elevated, have kept valley fog in the forecast for LUK.

Fair, warm conditions are expected on Thursday as upper ridging
builds east across the middle Ohio River valley. This will lead to
favorable conditions once morning fog burns off.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible from Thursday night through
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...