Tioga, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

853
FXUS63 KBIS 201952
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
252 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread precipitation continues through tonight, with
  chances diminishing through the day Wednesday. Additional
  rainfall around an inch in the James River Valley, and
  decreasing amounts to the north and west.

- Continued cold through Thursday morning. Areas of frost and
  some freezing temperatures possible Thursday morning.

- Temperatures warm up Thursday afternoon, and through the
  holiday weekend, with highs mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

- Daily low to medium chances for rain Friday and through the
  holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Rain continues to spread from eastern into central North Dakota
this afternoon, around a mid-upper level circulation over
eastern South Dakota. The mid-upper level circulation
retrogrades westward to around the southern James River Valley
by Wednesday morning, before finally exiting to the south and
east during the day Wednesday. Additional rainfall from this
afternoon through Wednesday afternoon is expected to be highest
around the James River Valley, with amounts to around an inch.
Additional rain amounts taper to closer to a half inch along the
Highway 83 corridor and to a quarter inch from around Williston
to Dickinson. The far southwest is expected to see additional
rain amounts of a tenth of an inch or less. There is still a
potential for seeing some snow mix in with the rain late tonight
into early Wednesday morning, and maybe even a change over to
snow. At this time the most likely area for a mix or brief
changeover to snow looks to be along the western fringes of the
precipitation shield centered around 12 UTC Wednesday. This
looks to be from around Williston and Watford City south through
Killdeer, Dickinson and Glen Ullin, to Hettinger and Fort Yates
along the SD border. Farther east, temperature profiles look
too warm. Impacts are not expected at this time with maybe some
light accumulations on Grassy surfaces.

Precipitation chances should really start to taper Wednesday
afternoon, with low chances lingering over central ND only
through early Wednesday evening. Late Wednesday night into
Thursday will bring another round of frost and some freezing
temperatures over western and portions of central ND. Exactly
how far east we see frost and possible freezing temperatures
will depend a lot upon how clouds clear Wednesday night. Even
though the system exits the area Wednesday, there is a weak
inverted trough that remains over central ND through Thursday
morning with a band of clouds potentially remaining over
central and portions of western ND. Will need to monitor for
frost/freeze highlights late Wednesday through mid morning
Thursday.

Thursday afternoon, and then through the Holiday weekend we do
warm with temperatures climbing back close to normal, however
any big warm-up doesn`t look to be in the cards through the
Memorial Day weekend. Precipitation chances also lower quite a
bit. There will likely remain some daily precipitation chances
through the weekend with higher chances favored over western and
southern portions of the forecast areas as another low pressure
system tracks across the northern Rockies and into the northern
Plains Thursday night into Friday. However, stronger high
pressure over the Canadian Prairie Provinces keeps the highest
precipitation chances confined to mainly western and southern
portions of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Low ceilings and periods of rain continue through the 18Z TAF
period.

Widespread MVFR-IFR ceilings are expected through this
afternoon and early evening, with IFR-LIFR ceilings expected
later this evening and through the overnight hours, before
slowly improving late in the TAF period. Widespread rain over
eastern ND with scattered rain showers central and isolated
showers west to begin the period. Rain will spread west through
the day, and continue this evening and overnight. It is possible
that rain may mix with or change to snow late tonight into
early Wednesday morning. However with widespread low clouds
expected, the most likely location to see snow looks to be KDIK
with some cooler temperatures. Will add a rain snow mix here
early Wednesday. Expect mostly a north to northeast surface flow
5 to 15 knots through the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH