Tioga, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

143
FXUS63 KBIS 121741
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms could return to parts of the
  region Wednesday and again Thursday.

- Expect highs in the 70s to mid 80s through the remainder of
  the week, although highs may reach the low 90s in the
  southwest on Wednesday and south central on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Limited updates needed early this afternoon. There are some
isolated visibility reductions in the north from wildfire smoke,
although they are limited at this time. Will keep in patchy
smoke mention through the day as there is some smoke still
showing up on satellite. Otherwise the forecast remains on
track.

UPDATE
Issued at 900 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Overall the forecast remains on track with little updates needed
this morning. Mainly clear skies are expected today, with some
afternoon fair weather cumulus forecast. Highs today will
generally be in the 70s with some lower 80s. GOES Geocolor
Satellite RGB showing some smoke in southern Canada pushing
south. Visibility reports are not that low with this smoke, thus
it could be more smoke aloft. Added in some patchy smoke mention
in the north and portions of the southwest this morning to
account for the potential of this smoke to mix down to the
surface. Surface smoke could then linger in the north and east
through today.

UPDATE
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

The forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Surface high pressure will pass through much of the state today.
This should lead to dry conditions and mostly sunny skies.
Seasonably cool highs mostly in the 70s are on tap, though some
locations may reach the 80 degree mark. Mostly clear skies
should then persist through tonight, though a few clouds may
begin moving in. Lows in the 50s are expected across the state.

A ridge will pass through the state Wednesday leading to warmer
temperatures, especially in western ND. In addition, the return
of southerly flow at the surface will result in muggy
conditions with dewpoints rising into the 60s across most of the
state. A trailing shortwave may produce a few showers and
thunderstorms, especially during the evening and overnight
hours. Per RAP analysis, a ribbon of enhanced instability and
adequate shear is progged across central ND. However, a very
strong cap is likely to be in place as well. Therefore, it seems
like the severe weather threat is fairly low overall, though a
few strong to severe thunderstorms developing in the south
central is not out of the question, especially near the ND/SD
border.

Come Thursday, tightly wound upper low looks to progress across
south central Canada. This will break down the thermal ridge
over the state, while an associated surface cold frontal
boundary will pass through from northwest to southeast. Well
below average temperatures will likely return to the far
northwest, while seasonable to seasonably warm highs in the mid
80s to low 90s are favored elsewhere. In regard to severe
weather potential, SPC has analyzed a slight risk over the James
River Valley, and a marginal risk between Highway 83 and the
James River Valley. Overall, this seems adequate at this time,
though a lot of it will depend on the frontal boundary timing.
If it speeds up, that would help inhibit severe weather
potential. If it slows down, that would increase chances across
western and central ND.

Beyond Thursday, periodic low chances for showers and
thunderstorms are on tap through the weekend and into early next
week. The NBM still favors seasonable to seasonably cool high
temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s. That said, the NBM 25th to
75th percentile spreads still remain about 8 to 10 degrees most
days. Simply stated, this means models lack strong agreement
about exactly what happens after the ridge is broken down
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Overall VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
FEW to SCT clouds will be found today, and may be at low VFR
heights. Otherwise look for dry conditions with some patchy
smoke today. Some breezy northwest winds may also be found at
times today. Tonight, skies become mostly clear with light
winds expected. Wednesday morning sees continued VFR conditions
with light winds becoming southeasterly.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Anglin