Surrey, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

976
FXUS63 KBIS 141508
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
908 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence in moderate (3 inches or more) to heavy (6 inches
  or more) snow continues to increase mainly for Tuesday through
  Wednesday. The highest probabilities (40 to 60 percent) of
  heavy snow are in northern and eastern North Dakota.

- Well above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions
  will continue through Monday, with daily highs generally in
  the 30s northeast to 50s southwest.

- Rapid cooling trend during the next workweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

The area of patchy fog has shrunk to northern Pierce County and
southern Rolette. The SPS was extended until 1130 AM. The fog
is not widespread enough for an Advisory.

UPDATE
Issued at 554 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Patchy dense fog has developed in the far north central mostly
nearby the Turtle Mountains. Fog should begin to improve later
this morning and dissipate by mid or late morning. Therefore,
issued an SPS for patchy dense fog until 9 am and will
reevaluate then.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Unseasonably warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions
continue through Monday with highs generally in the 30s
northeast to 50s southwest. Weak shortwave energy embedded in
otherwise zonal flow aloft, along with a little mid-level
moisture, could produce some light precipitation mainly during
the day Sunday, with the highest probability in the northwest.
Precipitation type could be a mix of rain, freezing rain, and
snow in the morning. However, any precipitation is currently
expected to be light with little to no accumulation. And with
temperatures within a few degrees of freezing before rapidly
warming above freezing, impacts should be little to none and for
a short duration. Still, will continue to monitor should
anything change.

Of higher interest due to higher impacts is the potential
winter storm for next week. Models are coming into better
agreement that a trough will dig into the west CONUS late this
weekend before lifting up through the Central and Northern
Plains during the middle of the workweek. Though uncertainty
remains, models are starting to come into agreement towards a
more tightly wound, yet relatively progressive Colorado/hybrid
low. This means that there could be fairly widespread heavy (6
inches or more) snow along with gusty winds that could produce
periods of blowing snow.

Precipitation is currently favored to start Tuesday in the
west before expanding across the area later in the day and
overnight. The heaviest snow is also favored from Tuesday
evening through the overnight hours and lingering into Wednesday
morning. After which, snow will likely begin to end from west to
east. Additional light snow is possible from another system to
finish out the workweek.

As of now, the NBM produces the strongest winds in the
northwest during the start of the system Tuesday afternoon. This
is significant in that snow ratios are progged to be lower
towards the start of this system before increasing as more
colder air is brought in Tuesday night and Wednesday. Should
things play out in this manner, and it`s definitely not a given,
then blowing snow impacts would be reduced in duration, coverage,
and overall intensity. That said, even in this case, rapid
changes in visibility will be possible, especially while snow is
falling.

Currently, NBM 5.0 probabilities of 6 inches or more of snow for
this system are around 50 to 60 percent for most locations north
of Highway 200. These are only marginally higher than the NBM
4.3, except in the northwest where the 5.0 is around 20 percent
higher. Which one winds up being more "right" in the end is
hard to say. However, it does seem to highlight where some of
the higher uncertainty remains.

In regard to aforementioned temperatures, confidence is very
high in a rapid decrease from Monday through Thursday as the
winter weather system impacts the area. Beyond that, things are
a little more uncertain in regard to whether an Arctic high may
take hold over the area, or if ridging and above average
temperatures will return. Though the current NBM 25th/75th
temperature spreads favor something that is seasonable to
seasonably cool overall to finish out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 554 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Patchy dense fog has developed in the far north central near the
Turtle Mountains and should dissipate by mid to late morning.
Fog could develop in a similar area again later tonight into
Sunday morning. Fog is not expected to impact any TAF sites at
this time. Other than said fog, VFR ceilings and visibility are
expected to prevail.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken