Stanley, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

039
FXUS63 KBIS 031509
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
909 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy this afternoon with normal to above normal
  temperatures forecast across western and central North Dakota.

- Gusty winds and patchy blowing snow possible tonight through
  Wednesday.

- Occasional disturbances moving through the area will bring
  periodic light snow chances through the rest of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

No significant changes for the morning update other than
updating sky cover based on latest satellite imagery. There are
some weak radar returns near the Turtle Mountains, and eastward.
Will monitor for possibly adding some small pops, but currently
no pops in the forecast with weak returns just skimming the
northeast half of Rolette county. Updated text products will be
transmitted shortly.

UPDATE
Issued at 613 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Quiet weather continues, no updates are needed at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Low stratus continues to move out of the area as surface high
pressure move to the southeast. High temperatures are forecast
to climb into the into the 30s north to upper 40s in the far
southwest. A warmer airmass will intrude across western South
Dakota spilling into the southwest resulting in this warm up.
Conditions will remain fairly breezy this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient from an upper low passes across Saskatchewan.
This could result in blowing snow tonight across the north and
east. Westerly winds will also support warmer temperatures
statewide.

Overnight lows are forecast to drop down around 0 north to the
upper teens south. A cold front is forecast to move through the
state late tonight drawing a colder airmass south. Deterministic
models have the cold front move through the region this
afternoon. This is why forecast lows could drop around 0 tonight
in the north as the colder airmass moves into the area.
Temperatures will continue to trend down tonight with
Wednesday`s high temperature likely being around midnight. There
is a slight chance of snow across the north central early
tomorrow morning as the front progress. Deterministic models
favor some light snow across the north while the CAMs really
don`t have much for precipitation. Windy conditions are expected
across the state Wednesday with the James River Valley being the
windiest.

The colder airmass is forecast to linger across the state until
this weekend. Northwesterly upper level flow continues across
region this week with another shot of an upper level wave
bringing a slight chance for snow out west Thursday.
Temperatures are forecast to warm back up above freezing by
Friday with the southwest possibly pushing the lower 50s. The
NBM 25th to 75th has a about a 10 to 15 degree spread for this
weekend with the 25th percentile being in the lower 30s for
Bismarck. This increases confidence for warm weather this
weekend with the 25th percentile being above the current
high temperatures the last few days. Deterministic models bring
another system through the region this weekend. The NBM has
around 20 to 40 percent chance of precipitation Sunday. The GEFS
ensembles does not really have much for precipitation, hence
why the NBM is on the lower end for probs at this time. The NBM
25th to 75th temperatures spread really increases next week as
the pattern becomes more uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

VFR conditions will continue today before a cold front moves
through the region. A cold front is forecast to move through the
state this afternoon bringing forth low level wind shear and
some lower CIGs this evening. Winds could gust up to 25kt from
the northwest.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson