Rugby, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

153
FXUS63 KBIS 112057
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
357 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon across
  western and much of central North Dakota. A Red Flag Warning
  remains in effect from late this morning through early
  evening.

- Widespread medium to high chances (50-80%) for rain expected
  Saturday night through Sunday night, ending on Monday. Some
  snow may mix in Sunday night through Monday morning.

- Temperatures trend warmer after Monday of next week, along
  with mainly dry weather conditions until precipitation chances
  return by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

An upper level ridge continues to move overhead strengthening a
low level thermal ridge across eastern Montana and western
North Dakota this afternoon. This has lead to high temperatures
in the 70s and even the lower 80s in the southwest. Which has
resulted in warm and dry conditions across the state, read the
fire weather discussion for more information. Surface low
pressure continues to pass over Saskatchewan and surface high
pressure over southern Minnesota has lead to a north south
orientated surface pressure gradient. Thus, supporting a low
level jet at around around 20 to 30 kts at 850 mb. This has
resulted in winds around 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. A warm
front will quickly shift winds out of the southwest before a
trailing cold front moves into tonight switching the winds out
of the north. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to
increase to the lower 40s tonight.

Tomorrow, zonal flow aloft will return to the region as an upper
level low digs into the Pacific Northwest. The aforementioned
cold front will bring cooler temperatures into the region. High
temperatures tomorrow are forecast to warm into the 60s across
the state. Overnight lows, are forecast to drop down into the
upper 30s to lower 40s. A system will move into the region
Saturday night as the upper level low moves into the Northern
Rockies. This low pressure system will bring wide spread
precipitation into the region. There is a chance Saturday
afternoon for Thunderstorms in the southwest. There is a low
chance of small hail and gusty erratic winds, the chance for severe
weather remains low. The west and north central is favored for
the highest qpf ranging from 0.5-0.75 inches. Total
accumulations may be streaky and scattered due to showers.
There is a 50 percent chance of 0.5 inches of rain across the
north central and northwest. There is a chance of a rain snow
mix on the backside of the low Sunday night into Monday morning.
Winds are forecast to increase this Sunday as the low pressure
system moves through the area. The strongest winds are forecast
to be across the southwest Sunday as the upper low moves across
the state and the James River Valley Monday. Monday
precipitation chances may linger as a shortwave moves through
the region.

Sunday and Monday high temperatures are forecast to sit in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures will begin trend warmer
by the middle of the week nearing normal to above normal by the
end of next week. Precipitation chances will also return by the
end of next.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions will continue across the region for the next 24
hours. Winds will remain southerly with afternoon gusts. Winds
will veer out of the northwest by early tomorrow morning and out
of the northeast by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon due to
dry and windy conditions. Thus, a Red Flag Warning will remain
in effect until this evening. Minimum relative humidity has to
dropped down as low 10 percent in the southwest to around 15 to
20 percent from Bottineau down to McIntosh county. The strongest
winds continue across the central portion of the state with
sustained winds out of the south around 20 to 25 mph and gusts
up to 35 mph. The rate of spread should be the highest until
around 7 pm CDT. A warm front is moving across far western North
Dakota shifting the winds from southerly to southwesterly
before a trailing cold front switches the winds out of the
northwest. Any initial attack fires will rapidly spread and
become difficult to suppress. Luckily fair overnight recoveries
are forecast across the state tonight with a wind shift from
northerly to northeasterly by Saturday morning. Winds will
remain light through Saturday with the minimum relative humidity
around 25 to 30 percent across western and central North
Dakota.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>004-009>012-017>022-031>036-040>047-050.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson
FIRE WEATHER...Johnson