Rugby, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

929
FXUS63 KBIS 040604
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1204 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce areas
  of blowing snow tonight through Wednesday. A Winter Weather
  Advisory for blowing snow has been issued for most of central
  North Dakota.

- There could be a brief period of light mixed precipitation
  tonight, followed by rapidly falling temperatures.

- After a brief period of cold temperatures tonight through
  Wednesday night, temperatures will then moderate through the
  weekend.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday,
  with widespread low to medium chances (20 to 50 percent) for
  precipitation returning Sunday into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1158 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

A cold front continues to move southward into northern North
Dakota so far. Temperatures continue to drop rapidly behind the
frontal passage. No updates are needed at this as the forecast
remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 1003 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Low clouds continue to quickly pour into the area while winds
continue to increase. So far observations have been rather
limited in reducing visibility, but with the increasing winds am
reluctant to delay any of the advisory headlines as drifting may
be occurring in rural areas. So far temperatures over the area
have been steady to slightly rising over the past few hours, but
this is to change after midnight with the front working its way
in when temperatures are expected to drop.

UPDATE
Issued at 637 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Cold front remains about 200 miles north of the International
Border, recently passing through Saskatoon, with low over south
central Manitoba. Winds are still on the increase, though, ahead
of the front in the tightening pressure gradient, with gusts in
the 30s starting to show up in a couple observations in far
northern North Dakota. Thus, winds will continue its increase
this evening, though the temperature drop will not show up
until late tonight.

As for precipitation chances, did drag out low chances for
precipitation a little longer late tonight into Wednesday
morning based on latest guidance that shows some precipitation
may linger.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

The main forecast issue will be the potential for blowing and
drifting snow tonight through Wednesday behind an Arctic cold
front that drops south through the area tonight.

As mentioned in the early afternoon update, if there were no
snow involved, eastern portions of central North Dakota could
expect near advisory to low advisory criteria winds, with lower
probabilities of advisory criteria winds as you go west. West of
the Highway 83 corridor, uncertainties increase both due to the
lack of snow and also the extent of warm temperatures today. The
southwest would definitely not need winter weather highlights
with temperatures around 50 in the far southwest, which will
melt or crust any remaining snow. The northwest into the south
central are a bit more uncertain. There are some areas in both
these areas, which may yield some blowing snow at times. In
central ND, temperatures have already reached the mid 30s which
could really put a crust to the snowpack. Prior to today there
was little or no crust on the latest snow. Our best guess was to
include areas along and east of the Highway 83 corridor in a
winter weather advisory for blowing snow. Confidence is highest
over eastern portions of central ND from the Turtle Mountains
into the James River Valley. over western portions of the
advisory, for the most part winds look like they would be below
wind advisory criteria, but would be concerned not having any
highlights.

With the initial surge of cold air tonight, it looks like there
could be a brief period of a wintry mix, possibly even a brief
snow squall. It appears that the temperature of the entire
column will quickly drop, but surface temperatures will be warm
initially, resulting in a possible flash freeze scenario. We
did keep a mention of a slight chance of freezing rain tonight
but think if it does occur it would be very brief.

Wednesday afternoon, the winds diminish from west to east across
central North Dakota. We kept the Advisory going through 6 PM,
but do think it`s possible that at least western portions of the
Advisory may be able to be cancelled early. A lot of that will
also depend on the resulting temperatures this afternoon and the
influence of the warm temperatures on the snowpack.

Wednesday night into Thursday another shortwave dropping
southeast congruent with an area of isentropic upglide over
eastern Montana into wester ND, will produce an area of light
snow or flurries over western and south central ND.

Cold temperatures behind the Arctic cold front will remain over
the area through early Thursday. Moderating temperatures are
then expected later in the day Thursday and Through the
weekend. After the small chances (20 to 30 percent) of snow west
and south central Wednesday night into early Thursday, mainly
dry conditions are expected through Saturday. Low to medium
chances (20 to 50 percent) for precipitation then return on
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

A cold front will move through the region tonight with a quick
burst of snow with strong north to northwest winds, although
winds may already be gusty ahead of the front. MVFR ceilings
will also spread north to south ahead and behind the cold front
and likely remain at least through the morning hours. After the
initial cold frontal passage we expect little if any additional
snow, but periods of blowing snow, especially at KMOT, KBIS and
KJMS through the daytime hours. Winds will diminish from west
to east Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for
NDZ003>005-011>013.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for
NDZ021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Johnson
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...JJS