Park River, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

416
FXUS63 KFGF 150854
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
354 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Wednesday night into Friday may impact the ongoing
  harvest, with 40 percent of 0.75 inch or more in the Devils
  Lake and far northern Red River valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...Synopsis...

500 mb low moving into Nevada early this morning in between Las
Vegas and Reno. Models have locked in on track of upper low to
around Sidney MT/Willison ND area by 00z Fri with sfc low into
central ND. Upper low and surface low move north into Manitoba
Thu night-early Friday. This track will mean the higher chances
of 1+ inch of rain has shifted a bit west and more focused in
west central/northwest ND and a slight shift west in percentages
of 0.75 inch and 0.50 inch or more with focus for this Devils
Lake-Langdon-Cavalier area.

For today...southeast wind and low level moisture looks to lock
in from parts of west central MN, northeast SD northwest toward
DVL and central/north central ND thru today. Did add some fog to
the western fcst area stripe from DVL to Gwinner as fog is
lowering vsbys just west in Carrington. Kept the drizzle mention
as well thru 17z. Some drier east flow should keep the IFR
clouds west of Grand Forks with Fargo on the edge...with some
partial clearing possible NW MN. Highs today in the 50s, though
barely 50 in the west as there is weak warm advection going on
thru the day. 850 mb jet increases overnight into Thursday with
PWAT increasing to 1.40 inches. Initial rain band with
potential t-storms due to instability centered around 850 mb due
to warm advection at that level 06z-12z Thu will be moving thru
Overnight tonight...though chances of showers will start 01-03z
in DVL to Valley City area. Bulk of the rain chances are 06z Thu
and after. 40-45 kt low level jet Thursday centered from eastern
SD into west central and northwest MN as surface low tracks to
near Jamestown by late Thursday and then north Thu night. Dry
slot works in Thu night, but during the day Thursday as main
rain area shifts north....scattered convection is likely in
advance of the dry slot. MU CAPE values 300-700 j/kg, though 20
pct chance of exceeding 1000 j/kg in southern RRV if indeed
temps can reach 74/75. The deformation zone of rain does shift
thru DVL basin overnight into Thursday but Thursday night will
shift more west and then shower chances diminish Friday as
system moves north...though lingering chances Devils Lake basin
and along Canadian border.

Southwest to west wind Friday and breezy/windy with mixing up to
850 mb where winds are 35-40 kts.

Weekend will some some low chances for showers Saturday but this
could be a model blend issue as most operational models have it
dry. Will see clearing Sat night into Sunday with temperatures
around normal. Ensembles indicate a short wave may move east and
then northeast into central Canada early next week with ECMWF a
bit stronger.  This may bring a chance for showers.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Conditions have gone downhill quickly in DVL as drizzle has
expanded just far enough east amid the upslope regime with IFR
to LIFR conditions likely through much of the period there.
Further east for valley sites like GFK and FAR, MVFR is with
ongoing or likely to develop in the next 6 hours with a low
chance for IFR. In BJI and TVF expect high MVFR through the day
with a low chance for drizzle that could bring vis to 4-5sm. DVL
currently seeing vis at 5sm but just a bit west over in rugby
vis at 2sm due to the drizzle.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...TT