Oakes, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

769
FXUS63 KBIS 070610
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1210 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry, and windy this weekend, with near-critical fire
  weather conditions south and west of the Missouri River.

- Near to above normal temperatures with increasing chances for
  precipitation next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Little updates needed at this time. Mainly updated the TAF
discussion for the 06z issuance. Otherwise the forecast remains
on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 956 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Current conditions and trends were blended into the forecast
for this update. Still skeptical about snow/freezing rain
showers in north central North Dakota tonight, and more recent
guidance has backed off. So did not add a mention of this to the
forecast, but its probability of occurrence is still greater
than zero. A large stratus shield across the eastern half of the
state has been slow to retreat eastward, and high-resolution
guidance now shows that fog could develop along the western edge
of the stratus overnight. Current nighttime satellite imagery
and recent surface observations also indicate patchy fog
developing along the Highway 52 corridor northwest of Kenmare.
Both the low clouds and any fog that develops should erode from
west to east through the night and into Saturday morning as
surface winds turn southwesterly, except along the southern and
western slopes of the Turtle Mountains where upslope flow could
maintain low clouds/fog until midday.

UPDATE
Issued at 600 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A band of snow, with some sleet possibly mixed in, has greatly
diminished over the southern James River Valley within the last
hour. A few flurries may linger there for a couple more hours
early this evening. A few CAMs hint at a mid level shortwave
bringing an area of scattered showers (mix of snow and freezing
rain) through north central North Dakota later tonight into
early Saturday morning. While deep layer forcing and conditional
instability are evident, associated model soundings barely show
any saturation. Therefore, not adding this to the forecast at
this time, but will monitor rapid refresh model trends
throughout the evening.

UPDATE
Issued at 403 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Quick update to PoPs and QPF for the deformation zone band
slowly crossing the southern James River Valley. Could see up to
around one inch of new snow accumulation across LaMoure and
Dickey Counties through the rest of the afternoon. The snow
should shift off to the east by early evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The current upper level wind pattern features a ridge over the
eastern Pacific and over the eastern CONUS with a trough over
the central U.S. In our area, a cold front exited the forecast
area early this morning. Cold air has dropped south from Canada,
ending the threat for freezing precipitation. However, shortwave
energy and the mid-upper level trough is resulting in a band of
post frontal snow tracking through the James River Valley late
this afternoon. Expect little in the way of accumulations but
areas along the South Dakota border from Ashley to Ellendale and
Oakes may see a half inch or so. Expect this to exit the JRV by
early this evening.

After today, our focus shifts to wind and fire weather concerns
for the weekend. As the aforementioned surface trough moves east
we will be situated in a broad northwest flow pattern that
becomes more westerly on Sunday as the eastern Pacific ridging
pushes eastward into the Plains. This ridging will result in
mild high on Saturday to Unseasonably warm temperatures for
Sunday. Highs on Saturday will range from the upper 30s around
the Turtle Mountains to the 50s south and west of the Missouri
River. On Sunday, forecast highs range from the upper 40s around
the Turtle Mountains to the upper 60s and even some lower 70s
south and west of the River. There is some concern regarding
highs on Saturday due to some increasing mid and high level
cloudiness, and the arrival of a cold front, but think westerly
downslope winds through much of the day, with a warm start to
begin with (mid 30s to lower 40s) record highs for Sunday will
be a good bet.

The main concerns for the weekend will be wind and fire weather
concerns.

Winds:
A pair of clippers tracking through southern Canada. The first
drags a surface trough/wind shift through the forecast area on
Saturday. Winds most of the day are expected to be southwest,
but shift west late in the day. During the afternoon we see a
pretty steep lapse rate develop over southern ND, an higher
winds aloft may work down to the surface. Strongest winds
Saturday will be over western ND, with advisory level winds not
out of the question, especially southwest where the stronger
gradient winds and steeper lapse rates coincide.

The second, stronger clipper tracks through area Sunday, with
the surface low tracking right along the International Border.
Very warm air ahead of the cold front pushes across the forecast
area during the day. Gradient winds are not especially strong
during the day Sunday ahead of the cold front. However, we will
see another day with the potential for stronger winds aloft to
mix down to the surface. Then as the cold front moves through
Sunday night, Strong gradient winds drop south over the forecast
area, congruent with a brief period of strong cold advection and
isallobaric winds associated with a pressure fall/rise couplet.
This strongest surge of winds occurs mainly during the evening,
but would not be surprised if winds remain windy through the
night. Wind advisory criteria winds are probably a good bet in
the afternoon in the west, then advisory criteria to possibly
High Wind Criteria winds may occur in the evening and possibly
linger through the overnight, moreso across the southwest and
south central. Will need to monitor.

Fire Weather:
Given warm temperatures and strong winds, near critical fire
weather concerns are expected for many areas west and south of
the Missouri River on Saturday and Sunday. At this time it look
like Saturday will be a marginal day as the duration of strong
winds is pretty short, max winds are not as high and relative
humidities remain above 30 percent. On Sunday, the wind
potential is higher, the duration of the winds is longer and
minimum humidities are lower (20 to 25 percent in the far
southwest). In addition, forecast highs are well into the 60s
and could approach 70 degrees. Therefore Sunday looks to be
solid near critical day, with the far southwest/ south central
possibly needing a Red Flag Warning. Will continue to monitor.

After the weekend, temperatures trend lower, but remain near to
above normal with increasing chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

IFR ceilings will be slow to erode from west to east across the
eastern half of the state tonight. There could also be some
patchy fog in central parts of the state overnight into
Saturday morning, particularly along the western edge of the low
clouds. Aside from KJMS, all other major terminals are unlikely
to see prevailing categorical flight restrictions through
tonight, and VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from
late Saturday morning onward. Underneath the low clouds, winds
will remain northwest around 10-15 kts. Otherwise, expect a
transition to light and variable winds, then southwesterly
around 5-10 kts overnight, and increasing to 15-25 kts out of
the west-southwest by Saturday afternoon with gusts around 30 to
near 40 kts. Westerly winds will remain breezy at around 10-20
kts Saturday evening, and a few rain showers could develop
across northwest and north central North Dakota by the end of
the forecast period. Some low level wind shear could return
Saturday evening, mainly along and east of a line from KMOT to
KBIS including KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...Anglin/Hollan