Mayville, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

210
FXUS63 KFGF 150057
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
657 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow, strong winds, and blowing snow, will lead to
  intermittent whiteout conditions Thursday night into Friday.
  Visibility will be sharply reduced where bands of heavy snow
  develop. Travel will be impacted late Thursday night into
  early Friday morning.

- Wind chill values fall into the range of -40 to -30 degrees
  Saturday and Sunday mornings.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Weather remains quiet this evening as we await warm air
advection pushing into the region overnight. Snow is still
expected this evening in some locations, particularly northwest
Minnesota, but with very limited impacts thanks to lack of
accumulations expected (generally a few tenths).


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

...Synopsis...

A highly amplified pattern prevails today through the weekend, with
strong H5 ridging in the western CONUS and a deepening H5 low
drifting southward into the Hudson Bay region. This will encourage
northerly H5 flow into the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great
Lakes regions. High pressure moves slowly southeastward this
evening, with brief, but strong shortwave ridging bringing very warm
temperatures into the area Thursday morning into the midday hours.
High temperatures will briefly climb into the 30s Thursday
afternoon, with a strong Arctic cold front bringing temps back down
into the single digits to low teens by sunrise Friday morning.
Winter impacts are expected as this system traverses the region
Thursday night into the first half of Friday. Heading into the
weekend, overnight lows, combined with northwest winds, will bring
wind chills as low as 40 below zero both days. Additional surges of
cold air follow as we head into next week, with a chance for snow
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There is pattern support for
additional Arctic air moving into the area late next week; however,
confidence remains low at this time regarding the potential for
winter impacts.

...Winter Impacts Possible Thursday and Friday...

Brief WAA follows a warm front late tonight through around midday
Thursday, with light snow possible through the overnight and into
early Thursday morning. A strong upper trough will then usher a
surge of Arctic air southward into the Northern Plains Thursday
night into Friday. This trough extends outward from the Hudson Bay
Low, bringing Arctic air southward along an already steep thermal
gradient. An initial cold front will bring chances for snow starting
Thursday afternoon and evening, with generally light accumulations
due to the fast movement of the front. Strong CAA follows the front,
allowing northwest winds to gust as high as 50 mph. Narrow bands of
light to moderate snow are then expected to form as lapse rates will
be quite favorable for convective snow showers. While there is still
some spatial uncertainty, eastern North Dakota and most of northwest
Minnesota have the potential to experience periods of whiteout
conditions within these bands of heavy snow. This, combined with the
strong wind gusts, is likely to support blizzard like conditions
across much of the area at times. This is where the temporal
uncertainty remains somewhat high, especially given that these
narrow snow bands are likely to form and dissipate repeatedly.

...Wind Chills as low as -40 degrees Saturday and Sunday Mornings...

Arctic air continues to surge into the Northern Plains heading into
Saturday morning, with northwest winds in the 15-25 mph range
through at least mid morning. Surface temps are expected to remain
below zero in many areas through the day, then fall into the teens
below zero Saturday night. Winds will diminish, however, with colder
temps in place, wind chill values are still expected to fall as low
as -35 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Intermittent MVFR ceilings are going to be the main aviation
impact for the next 6 hours, with more widespread MVFR to IFR
ceilings after 12z.

A front is moving through stretching from MOT to BIS and is
moving eastward. MVFR ceilings accompany this front with a 30%
chance for snow at any TAF site it crosses. Impacts to
visibility should remain minimal and keep flight categories at
worst MVFR.

As we progress towards 12z and onward, winds will shift to the
northwest and be accompanied by increasing probability for
precipitation (particularly in northwest Minnesota). More
widespread impacts to flight categories from MVFR to IFR
ceilings will be expected to develop for all TAF sites.
Visibility reductions will be greatest at TVF and BJI where
snowfall is most likely to fall after 18z. By the end of the TAF
period, expect at least all TAF sites to be MVFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Perroux