Mandan, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

034
FXUS63 KBIS 142001
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
301 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will remain near to below normal through next
  weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms chances through Thursday. Severe
  weather is not expected.

- Breezy to windy through most of the week, with the strongest
  winds on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026


Currently weak northwest flow is over the Northern Plains, with
a sharp ridge over the Pacific Northwest. A small shortwave is
moving through western South Dakota with an associated upper
level low. A band of high cirrostratus is over North Dakota in
the moist conveyor belt in the upper level low. At the surface,
high pressure is dominating the Northern Plains and upper
Mississippi River Valley.

Tonight will not be as cold as last night, the southwest got
down to 30, as today highs in the 70s will prevent that. Monday
another shortwave dives into the state from Canada, producing
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be very
similar to today (in the 70s). During this time, an upper level
low will slide into southern Canada, keeping us in this active
cyclonic flow through the week. Expect daily chances for showers
and non-severe thunderstorms through Thursday. Tuesday night
into Wednesday is looking more like stratiform rain, with the
highest QPF footprint located along the Missouri River in the
west at 0.50 inches. With highs in the low 70s and no major
jump starting features to kickoff explosive storms, no severe
weather is expected. Since the pattern won`t be changing,
temperatures won`t change much either. Highs will generally be
near or below normal in the 70s. That upper level low will more
or less get "stuck" in southern Canada until this weekend when a
possible clipper pushes that low east.

This week will also be breezy to windy with all these shortwave
surges and pressure gradients. Wednesday will be the most
concerning windy day as the southwest could have sustained
winds around 30mph, with gusts maybe around 50mph. This will
likely be while its raining and will need either an Advisory or
a High Wind Warning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR CIGs and VIS through the period. Northwest winds will gust
to 30kts by late Monday morning. Chance of showers in the north
Monday morning, becoming likely and widespread by Monday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith