Horace, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

133
FXUS63 KFGF 250437
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1137 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong thunderstorms may develop into parts of the
  Devils Lake Basin this evening, with small hail the main
  threats.

- There is a chance for isolated strong thunderstorms each
  afternoon Monday through Wednesday.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected this week, with
  highs near daily records Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

...Synopsis...

West-northwest flow aloft is in place across the northern
Plains, with shortwave ridging to the north over the Canadian
Prairies. Our region will become dominated by a more amplified
mid/upper ridge/blocking pattern early to mid week with hotter
summer-like temperatures arriving. Eventually there is a
breakdown of the western part of this ridge in response to
deepening troughing from the Pacific Northwest towards the
Northern Rockies. This would allow southwest flow and the
potential for more opportunities for organized shortwave
passages/deeper moisture and precipitation/severe weather
chances. There remains higher variability though regarding the
evolution of the pattern this weekend into the next week and at
this range there is not a specific target being highlighted by
machine learning systems during those later periods. Another
results of the shift in pattern will be temperatures "cooling"
some compared to the hotter temperatures from the first half of
the week (still above average).

...Strong thunderstorm chances through midweek...

Thunderstorm chances are greatly diminished today, though there
is still a low chance for a thunderstorm to develop into our
northwest this evening as a weak shortwave moves out of the
Northern Rockies (currently near northeast Montana). Ahead of
this instability values have increased above 1000 J/KG, but by
time any upstream activity arrives (better chances after 01Z)
instability profiles decrease quickly. Almost every CAM except
earlier ARW runs have held off on convection in our area, with
those that does show upstream activity arriving holding together
as mainly showers before dissipating. An earlier initiation or
arrival and gusty winds still carries the potential for a
stronger storm though and this will be monitored.

As temperatures increase and steep mid level lapse rates remain
in place, guidance shows favorable instabilty profiles
(1000-2500 J/KG) through the early week period, with effective
shear much more variable (though at times near or above 30kt).
The question will ultimately come down to forcing and outside of
Tuesday afternoon and evening along a baroclinic zone where
better convergence is advertised most periods show very
weak/spotty convective signals or no precipitation chances.
Tuesday afternoon and evening with the potential for better
forcing along that frontal zone will be a period to monitor and
machine learning systems are are highlighting that period for
severe thunderstorm potential.

...Hot temperatures this week...

Temperatures today are already in the upper 70s to lower 80s
over many locations with additional daytime heating to go (will
probably fall closer to the NBM 75th percentile at warmer
locations). Seasonal averages are generally in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Monday through Wednesday will be even warmer as
heights aloft rise in response to amplified ridging, with most
locations at least in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Even 50th
percentile values are within a few degrees of daily records on
Monday/Tuesday and if any location were to fall closer the the
75th percentile daily records could be in jeopardy.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR with winds slowly turning through the period. Generally
5-10kts but a KFAR and KTVF may peak into the low teens with a
few gusts near 20kts from the mid morning to early afternoon.
Winds mostly southerly now and becoming SW by sunrise ending the
day more W/NW and continuing to shift to the N by midnight
tomorrow. A few thunderstorms may pop up tomorrow afternoon in
the KBJI vicinity but less than 30% confidence thus no prob30 or
prevailing group.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT