Grand Forks, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

216
FXUS63 KFGF 112051
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
351 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions will develop in the
  western Devils Lake basin between 3PM and 8PM today.

- Rain and snow will move into the area between Saturday night
  and Monday morning. There is a 20% chance for minor impacts
  from falling snow Sunday night into Monday morning in far
  northern Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...Synopsis...

Water vapor satellite this afternoon reveals upper ridging
noted over the Rockies extending into the Northern Plains, with
a small shortwave trough embedded near the crest of this upper
ridge. Additionally, broad upper ridging off the Pacific Coast.

The upper ridge/embedded shortwave trough is helping lee
troughing at the surface, increasing winds out of the south
within western and central ND. Very dry air mass ahead of this
front is combining with increasing winds to contribute to fire
weather conditions, including near critical fire weather
conditions in portions of Devils Lake basin this afternoon. More
details on this below.

The front moves through tonight into Saturday, although dry air
and meager moisture/forcing aloft will not allow for any
precipitation.

The next chance for precipitation comes this weekend when the
aforementioned Pacific Coast upper trough migrates eastward
through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This system will have
ample moisture available along with moderate to strong synoptic
forcing, resulting in high chance (70%) for rain and snow
Saturday night through Monday morning. As of now, some areas
may see between 0.5 to 1 inches of rain/liquid equivalent (30%
chance of occurring), with relatively highest chances residing
near the Devils Lake basin as well as near north-central MN.
More details on winter-related potential impacts found below.

Into next week, the flow aloft becomes generally northwesterly
as the upper trough continues east of our region. Ensembles do
indicate potential clipper-like system to move through the
south-central CAN/Northern Plains region mid to late next week,
bringing another round of precipitation and gusty winds.
Details regarding this potential system remain unclear, however,
there is little evidence of noteworthy impacts from this.

...Near critical fire weather western Devils Lake basin...

While driest air mass and gustiest winds will remain in western
and central North Dakota, enough dry air and increased winds
overlap into the western Devils Lake basin to allow for near
critical fire weather conditions generally between 3PM and 8PM
today.

In counties like Benson and Towner, RH values will dip between
20-25 percent, with gusty winds up to 30 mph. While these two
counties have highest confidence of meeting these conditions,
other areas within the Devils Lake basin may see these
conditions for a brief period within the aforementioned time
window, around 30% chance of occuring.

Other areas within eastern ND will see RH values nearing 30
percent, but winds are expected to remain lighter, with gusts
around 20 mph. Conditions improve after sunset as RH values
increase and sustained winds decrease. It is worth noting that
in some localized areas, gusty winds to 35 mph may develop as a
low level jet interacts with terrain/downsloping. Confidence is
low in this occurrence, however.

...Potential winter impacts Sunday night into Monday morning...

As strong forcing associated with the wave moves near the
international border, it will pull sufficiently cold enough air
on its northern and western flanks to allow for rain to mix with
and/or transition to a heavy, wet snow. There is some indication
of mesoscale forcing to help increase hourly rates, as well as
allow for the potential of snow accumulations. Confidence is
lowered in location of snow due to mesoscale forcings, as well
as uncertainty regarding dry slot into the area.

As of now, ensemble guidance continues to highlight areas near
Lake of the Woods area to hold relatively highest chance (20%)
of snow accumulations between 1-4 inches, albeit accumulation
efficiency will likely be impacted by warm surface temperatures
compacting/melting snow as it accumulates. This along with
reduced visibilities from locally moderate to heavy snow rates
will introduce 20% chance of minor (Advisory- level) winter
impacts, namely to travel conditions. This may impact the Monday
commute in this area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through 18Z Saturday. A front moves
through the region from west to east tonight into Saturday,
shifting winds from southerly 10-15 kt to westerly. A low level
jet will strengthen ahead of this front, introducing low level
wind shear between 04Z-15Z at all TAF sites.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ