Grafton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

646
FXUS63 KFGF 062002
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
302 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms Saturday
  afternoon into the early evening across eastern North Dakota
  and parts of northwestern Minnesota. Wind gusts up to 60 mph
  is the main threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...Synopsis...

An approaching 500mb jet off the Canadian Rockies will drive a
deep developing surface low over the Canadian Prairies. The lows
associated cold front will bring the potential for severe
weather across the region Saturday as it propagates east. Rain
showers and a few rumbles of thunder on the backside will
persist into Sunday, especially over northwestern MN. Winds
behind the cold front will become gusty. In addition to gusty
winds, surface level smoke will return from Canadian wildfires
by late in the weekend into early next week as a reinforcing
cold front comes through.

Beyond Monday night, this FA will reside on the northern edge
of a low amplitude ridge in fairly zonal flow, with slowly
warming temperatures. At the same time, moisture from the Gulf
will start to advect northward. As a wave approaches from the
Rockies during the second half of the work week, it will bring
our next best chance for widespread thunderstorms, centered on
Thursday.

...Thunderstorms Saturday...

As an area of low pressure pushes through Manitoba Saturday, a
cold front will drape itself to the south, traversing the FA
from northwest to southeast. The front will push into the Devils
Lake Basin in the early afternoon (Noon to 2 PM), the Red River
Valley mid afternoon (3PM to 6PM), and lakes country by late
afternoon/early evening (5PM to 9PM). Frontal forcing will allow
for storms to blossom along the front. Shear vectors are right
around 30 knots, stronger further south. Their orientation would
indicate a messy mode along and north of Highway 200, with
maybe a chance at more discrete convection further south.
However to the south, the front will be further back to the west
by Bismarck/Jamestown when storms fire, meaning storms will
likely be on the messier side as well when they arrive in this
FA. Overall, with the messy storm mode and meager mid lapse
rates, hail potential looks limited, with the best chances to
see up to a quarter in size south of Highway 200. Wind will by
and large be the driver of the level 1 out of 5 marginal risk
for Saturday. Surface to 3 Km shear touching on 30 knots at
times with DCAPE of up to 800 J/Kg should allow for a few
severe gusts, but limit their areal extent and upper end
intensity. Storms will weaken as the push east of the Red River
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR throughout the TAF period, but MVFR may sneak in at KFAR
this afternoon. This is due to a blossoming cumulus field
across the region. Cumulus will break apart this evening with
the loss of daytime heating. Southerly winds will continue
throughout the period ahead of an approaching cold front that
will sweep through Saturday afternoon, just after the current
TAF period. Winds will be gustiest late Saturday morning into
the afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty