Grafton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS63 KFGF 251214
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
614 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light wintry mix developing today into tonight. 80 percent
  chance for advisory level impacts due to a light glaze of ice.

- A few fast moving systems moving along the Canadian border
  this weekend could bring less than 1 inch of snow along with
  wind gusts 30-40 mph Sunday. There is a 30 percent chance for
  advisory impacts and 10 percent chance of warning level
  impacts on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Monitoring any low clouds across the area and seeing if they
start advection more north/east. So question remains if/when
freezing drizzle will start today. Higher chances remain more in
north central MN tonight.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

...Synopsis...

500 mb southwest flow from California into Montana then flattens
to more west to east across the Dakotas, Minnesota and Manitoba.
One stronger short wave giving wintry precip across western into
central Saskatchewan into central Manitoba today. A bit weaker
upper level wave will move thru the local area this evening.
Another upper level wave and 500 mb trough will move east along
the Intl border this weekend as the southwest flow 500 mb shifts
east of the area and we get back into the more west to east flow
aloft.

...Wintry mix today and tonight...

Low level saturation is anticipated to develop today from
southwest to northeast as 925 mb south-southeast winds increase
to 40 kts with 850 mb south winds to 50 kts develop over eastern
ND and NW MN this afternoon and evening, with low level jet
shifting east of the area after 06z Fri.

Warm advection will be main lifting mechanism for precip
development today. Soundings in the central and north valley
into NW MN show a distinct freezing drizzle pattern with
saturated low levels up past 900 mb but a dry later 870 mb and
up where temps are above 0C. Saturationg does occur arond the
870-800 mb layer this evening/tonight over north central
Minnesota. Thus thinking more of a freezing drizzle set up for
the valley into MN developing as we go thru today....then
tonight freezing rain scenario for parts of northern MN where
output gives up to 0.10 inch of ice accumulation in parts of
north central MN centered around Beltrami and Hubbard counties.

Confidence was 80 percent for advisory impacts in parts of the
RRV and MN so in conjunction with DLH and MPX did a winter wx
advisory this aftn and tonight Red River valley Fargo and north
and then east thru northwest MN and parts of west central MN.
Valid thru 12z Fri.


...Weekend...

Next short wave trough will move east quickly along the Intl
border with a weak surface low tracking along the border as well
with cold front moving thru overnight Sat night. Overall the
more outlier Canadian model with its stronger solution is now
more closely aligned with mean ensembles given by ECMWF and GFS.
This shows a band of light snow thru the area Sat overnight into
Sunday morning east. But amounts look quite light....probs of
0.5 inch 40 percent along the border to 10 percent south. Probs
for more than 1 inch from all ensembles and NBM single digits.
There will be a period of cold advection and gusty northwest
winds to 35 kts Sunday behind this system, but likely after any
falling snow ends. With snow on the ground currently not
blowable except for perhaps far northeast ND and northwest MN,
any blowing snow issues will need to come from falling snow.

Blowing snow table given temps Sunday noon of 5 degrees and wind
speed 30 kts indcdiate 30 percent chance of advisory conditions
due to blowing snow. Kept the 10 pct warning messaging but that
is looking less likely as of now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Question of the day in aviation world is advance/development of
low clouds across the area as low level warm advection ramps up.
High uncertainity in when low clouds develop but they should and
when they do IFR conditions will occur. Question too on freezing
drizzle chances. Soundings support freezing drizzle in many
areas this aftn/night but whether it occurs is uncertain.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Friday for
     NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Friday for
     MNZ001>004-007-008-013>016-022-023-027-028-030-031.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Friday for MNZ005-006-009-017-024-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle