Casselton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

361
FXUS63 KFGF 141945
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND
245 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low (5%) chance for severe weather tonight in
  parts of eastern North Dakota.

- Widespread rain beginning late tonight though Friday with a
  40 to 70 percent chance for at least 1 inch of rain over
  eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota Wednesday
  through Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...Near critical fire weather ending, thunderstorms possible
tonight...

Deep troughing aloft is positioned across the northern Rockies,
while ridging continues slowly moving east across the Midwest,
putting active southwesterly flow aloft just to the west of the
Red River. As a result, temperatures across the area are pretty
warm, generally in the upper 70s to upper 80s, with highs later
this afternoon expected to reach into the lower 90s through the
valley. Up near the Turtle Mountains, cooler air associated with
the aforementioned troughing have already begun to intrude,
with highs only in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Southeasterly winds
across most of the area will be in the 15 to 20 mph range. While
moisture is on the way, this afternoon will still be pretty
dry, with relative humidity values expected to dip into the 25
to 30 percent range. As a result, there will still be a few more
hours of near critical fire weather conditions, mostly in far
eastern North Dakota and up through the northwestern Minnesota
counties. Following this evening, fire weather concerns will
remain minimal through the rest of the week and into the
weekend. With the approach of the trough, we do also have a
brief period this afternoon where we may see a strong
thunderstorm develop through the James River Valley. Sufficient
instability associated with the trough will be present, though
shear maxima remains displaced to the west. As a result, there
is only a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms from
the SPC, with the main threats being wind, as once the storms
reach the area, they will mostly have consolidated into a linear
segment.

...Widespread rain and winds tonight through Friday...

As the trough continues moving east overnight, chances for rain
will begin to increase. Surface cyclogenesis to the southwest
of the area will help transport substantially more moisture to
the Dakotas and Minnesota. As the low swings up into far eastern
North Dakota Thursday, much of the area will see almost two
full days of consistent shower activity. Dry slotting wrapping
around the low may inhibit the development of showers in some
locations, notable in northwestern Minnesota, though in general,
beneficial rainfall is expected almost everywhere. Current
rainfall totals range from around half an inch in northwestern
Minnesota to around 2 inches in the Devils Lake area. Thursday
will also see some breezy winds associated with this system,
with Friday winds notably stronger, as the surface pressure
gradient on the western periphery of the surface low strengthens
considerably. NBM probabilities for exceeding an inch of
rainfall through Friday range from around 5 percent in Bemidji,
to around 70 percent in Devils Lake, with both Fargo and Grand
Forks sitting at a 40 percent chance.

...Cooler through the weekend, with more rain after...

Once the precipitation has ended, cooler air on the western edge
of the aforementioned trough will push in, resulting in much
cooler temperatures. Highs on Friday and Saturday will generally
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with lows Saturday morning
and Sunday morning in the lower 30s near the Turtle Mountains to
around 40 in the Fargo and Bemidji areas. With the potential
for some clearing of the clouds across northeastern North Dakota
Sunday morning, there will be a brief period with the potential
for frost development. While Saturday morning will be cool
enough, cloud coverage appears to be a bit too thick for
substantial frost growth. The start of next week looks to be a
bit wet once again, as long range guidance hints at yet another
large low pressure system bringing some substantial rainfall to
the area. NBM probabilities of exceeding an inch of rain from
Monday morning through Wednesday morning appears to be ranging
from 20 percent in the Lake of the Woods area to around 60
percent in the Fargo area. High temperatures through this period
will remain firmly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions present across all terminals this morning,
continuing through much of the daytime hours today. Some diurnal
cumulus has begun to develop across northwestern Minnesota and
far eastern North Dakota, resulting in some scattered clouds
around 6 to 8 kft. Breezy southeasterly winds are expected
through the day today in the Red River Valley, with sustained
speeds 15 to 20 kts and gusts to 30 kts possible at times. KDVL
winds will initially be easterly, shifting northeasterly towards
the second half of the TAF period as a front moves through. KBJI
will generally remain light out of the southeast. Towards the
end of the TAF period, precipitation in the form of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to begin moving into the area from
the west. Chances arrive in KDVL around 00z, expanding east to
KFAR and KGFK around 08z, and blanketing the entire area by 12z.
Ceilings associated with this system will generally remain MVFR,
though brief IFR/LIFR conditions are possible if any
particularly stronger storm passes directly over a terminal.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Besson
AVIATION...Besson